Typhoon Tip

agreed... but of course, predicated on the assumption of details here Despite the kangaroo court ruling the Euro's pretty good at D4 so -

I just saw the Euro ... heh, I think that verifies decimals ( crucially ) colder..

More of an observation in concept here ... but, both the Monday and the later Thur/Frid systems "default" the thicknesses warmer afterward - I see this routinely in spring, where the wave of low pressure - in total - acts more like a warm front; even if there are closed isobars, the region ends up with a shot a mid 50s or even 60 immediately when the sun comes out. The one later in the week on this GFS run has like 0 backside anything and in fact, 6 hours after the cloud part there is 552 dm thickness contour bifurcating the area, with a SW flow ahead of the next front. This in total does also fit in more with your observation about these becoming more WAA/open wave-like.

Classic "farmer's gold" spring blue - There are actually two events in this manifold/pattern ...the one later Monday, then again almost even a redux look toward the end of the week. Neither event looks ( to me ) as though they can't overcome warmth and move to an isothermal sounding snow type. Typically in the spring, these mid and extended range cyclones with marginal QPF type spread out over their NW arcs ...they will tend to end up 0 C around our latitude. I have seen so many + 1 to even + 3 commaheads end up 'chuting at -.1 C. Anyway, given the synopsis in hand I'd be willing to guess based on that experience/education that Monday's ordeal ends up isothermal in a significant region that probably even flips the SE edge of present ptype guidance to pillows. The other aspect/con ...other than Scott's salient observation that we are still in the progressive eternity apparently ...is that this ever so slightly looks more IB/warm advection in type on the 00z runs suite. It's really almost more of an impression ...but if that unfolds more in that direction, I'm not sure isothermal characteristic would be the ultimate saturation thermal sounding type. And of course that means an eventual over to cold rain in that scenario. It's actually nice to have some weather to discuss ...

Good point!

Perfectly fair assessment of when it is okay to 'apply biases' and when something only thinks it is - agreed

Yeah, one should not look at a 120 hour UKMET and take thermal fields verbatim - It's an interesting track and factoring known biases, the UKMET's decent too

looked okay to me - but thanks :/

This could not be a better year for irony if we get like an April version of 1888 and everyone goes above normal snow - oh man... I hope that happens

UKMET's decent too Will was mentioning a few days ago we'd might want to watch the 24th and indeed, it was in many ensembles then, prior and since... It's probably a rare thing to see this particular threat be inside of 120 hours in this particular year - ha!

It might be interesting to see the 24 hour DP curve. IT appears there may be a 'hockey stick' abrupt rise ... this meso-beta scaled low that brought the steady cold rain this morning is helping to delay the warm front - what's new. But looking upstream beneath the warm front that extends from N. Missouri to the Del Marva the whole region is unilaterally soaked in 65 F DPs and that's modeled to bodily foist up here. When/if the warm front does finally mix down, that might be trip!

I mean it was snowing cotton balls here at dawn and may nick 70 F tomorrow - so going in both directions really Ah yes ...the fickle days of March

ah why the hell not ... That ICON model dumps pillows on the interior Monday evening -

Did someone post a statistical run-down of the top 20 lowest snow return winters tending to be followed by above normal temperature summers? I may be imagining that but I thought I had seen that in here -

This is a really extraordinary Euro run depiction pertaining the D4 front. Friday 18z the temperature could very well be 75 or even pushing 80 F at ASH ( say...), and be falling through the 30s, 24 hours later.

yup ... been there for a while, indeed..

That's not a reason, though - what does that mean, after 20 years.. .It's a faux logic to break something that isn't broken. I hate that - if there is empirical evidence to support the position as being held by inadequate personnel, that is when you rebuild it. The 20 years is irrelevant. Now...one can argue that at age 42, the longevity is an issue.. yeah, granted. Quite true. But, patterning and real evidence is that this particular individual's future doesn't decline along the 'normal extinction of skill and usefulness' curve ( if we will...), that you normally get from other QB's. There's that, and, that gives time to repopulate the position - which that Tidman kid showed enough promise to be at minimum a stand in if needed, if not taking over. Patriot's fan base is a bastion for high- rootin' tootin' yahoos, too many of which are rah-rahing their way through any analytic regards to this/these questions, but the reality is ... there is a better way to manage this transition than forcing the team ( probably... but we'll see) down a five year road of rebuilding mediocrity. We'll probably never see a 6 super bowl future ever again. The reality is, the base-line probability is that any team is lucky to have one in five years...and the Patriots are probably now riding along that same curve. And they didn't have to... it didn't have to end this way... It seems like self-destruction is fad-cancer currently permeating all walks of societal reality these days.... This whole pandemic thing is serious, but not apocalyptic like the corporate media is cashing in on by creating this dystopian cinema. It seems it's part of the human equation, to want to disrupt good things destructively and force a reset - it's some evolutionary trick (probably) to prevent the tribe from gaining complacency during faux quiescence ( theory)

Tom Brady out according to his own tweet - could be a hoax to motivate reaction? ...but, given the last several months of fervor and tenor surrounding his free-agency, and to mention the SUPER attractive offence the can-do-know-wrong Bellicheck put together surrounding him last year ... probably this is destiny

depressing's what it is ... who the f 'wants' to offset record warmth now and gloat about failing to do so, in lieu of what, 41 by day over 19 at night? sun's nice i guess but it's wasted in this air mass.

This 12z Euro looks is operational turbo-suck across west Tx and Ok on D6

Well... I didn't say 'average' in terms of total - but yeah, 10 years

In the last 10 years I've owned this property I've seen March 'sythia buds 7 times

In any case... it'll come down to offsets - naturally ... Whatever cold there is needs to have double the hot in terms of absolute magnitude or you don't total/n-terms... and Will's right, that's going to be harder if we dilute this weekend... Heh ...not that +5 to +7 is any less repulsive to the cold weather enthusiasts..

dude, you just made his logical case! Normals is like mid 40s tops... how the f are you gonna through mid 40s into the paint without tainting it toward cooler colors... wow

I tried to explain this ... Altho I'm inclined to replace "meh for a large chunk of this weekend' with annoyingly cold and a big piece of shit... but that's cause I hate futility chill in spring with a particularly fervency.