Typhoon Tip

Here comes the imby's

the radar leaves much to be desired...

`Ha ha... it is actually amazing out there today... You're perfect type of mid February warming sun on the napes while strolling by a placid pond, reflecting upon what could have been ...

This is it? Is this as good as it gets? decades of life wended it's way to this f'ing moment of debating the cataclysmic significance of high end advisory or low end warning interpretation with Connecticut hill people

Did y'all see those articles in the news about how some of the geysers of YS are belching out garbage dating back to the 1960s ... ? Just imagine ... in a vast universe, so vast that probabilities yield realities that defy the imagination, there is an interstellar technologically of advanced, exploratory species that is setting foot down on a planet where there is no evidence of an advance species. Yet ... that's all they find. In geysers, coming out of the planet's insides. And islands of refuse matting the seas. And they wonder where the progenitors went

...you've bothered to analyze, and props for that effort ... You've come to what we've all suspected - or at least I ... Those products usually I cut in half as a perfunctory first requirement per their usage.. I come to find that even in the best circumstances, verification will never tally 100 % of those fantasies. ...About 80 tops, but that's for upper tier events with huge environmental controlling parameters in play. In situ like this is an autopilot 1/2 er. What's liable to happen now just because we're having this discussion is... some unforeseen mechanics will stripe a foot across the region ...

Surprising ... I figured it was collapsing into the consensus ..right around .4 or so, off those .6ers it it was selling yesterday.

It happens quite often ...

Idyllic tableau of charts ... Trying to think back when I've seen a parked polar high for 30 straight hours with long-shore deep field fetch purporting endless CCB 1/2 mi vis snows... It'd be like 20" and never snowing hard once.

You know ... not for not ... this is the first system this season that we'll make it back to back prior to the snow/gunk pack being eroded down to nothing. Yaaay! We've sustained - This winter is so focked... it's like trying to get as close to the event-horizon of futility without actually being compulsory to that unsavory gravity well. At least with futility ...there's a chagrin, shit eating charm if not honorable mention for having endured that journey, but we don't even get that...

I had a feelin' this would happen... As a user of the FRH FOUS grid ( ..because I go back a ways to the days when knowing how to interpret those numbers was a useful tool in shorter term prognostication), one thing I've noted ..even back before the NAM was the NAM ( it used to be called the "ETA" and it only went out 48 hours if we got back far enough) is that QPF quite frequently comes into the models range too hefty. Then, the model cuts it back after a cycle or two, ...tries to bring back the heftier numbers, only to at last collapse to the global model types in the 30 hour range. ...Heh, and as these numbers come and pass by in time, the up -down nature of the correction curve is always well echoed by the tenor in optimism in the posts... it's awesome. I can be in a meeting at work ... some manager droning on by quarterly mission statements ... and thumbing through my filthy iPhone's screen interface under the edge of table, I know where we are along the cycle of the NAM's system detection purely from gauging that optimism vs tossing tempo... Anyway, this system seems to have performed along that similar sinusoidal decay of first bigger QPF, then less... back bigger ...settling on less. Not true in all systems...seems to be a behavior that's endemic to low to middling system strength. I've seen big juggernaut nor'easters with 2+" of liq equiv QPF lock in early but ...the dynamics/mechanics are overwhelming so they probably mute "model noise" at the powerful ' er end of the spectrum.

Looks reasonable ... There could be a general 3.2" with one or two lollies to 4 on the dot spanning the area ... and then the post-mortem vitriol would undoubtedly discuss the system as having busted on the low side, "...but overall, not terrible..." Conversely, a 6" total or two taking place, in the midst of a general swath of 4" would reflect as a system well handled... Even though fair evaluation of both outcomes would yield they were both perfectly forecast.

The mid week (overnight Wednesday night...) event is almost non-existent in the Euro ... We're in a pattern that encapsulates both this nearer term event, and the mid week one; there enters some plausibility in my mind that just as the Euro needed to correct toward more of an impact ( albeit minor ) for this nearer term system, it may also end up doing so nearing Wednesday. For the straw man in the room: while it has oft' been said that past modeling performance does not dictate future error, that is a big steaming pile of evasive bullshit contrived in the mind of the reality evading delusional thinker that wants to believe a given present storm has special merit, or a pattern nutation toward no storm doesn't, when they happen to be consuming white model lies in either direction. The truth is, if a model consummately sucks asshole, than it is definitely "not likely" to suddenly un-suck assholes. The interesting aspect, I don't believe that anyone who has, or is summarily and probably quite judiciously, negating a consummate asshole model ... ever really intended to mean they thought it was dictating to begin with... Where did that come from? No, that was a euphemism that sounded good - a sure-fire lure of the general din of the bus-stop to ride along with accepting some model solution(s) at one time or another. But it's an argument that was never critically consumed by the reader and then gathered some mantra weight over time but is empty. It's using rhetoric to hide and/or damp the significance of a simple fact: pattern of behaviors from a given source tend to be repeating. Fact of the matter is, if a model sucks a lot, odds are, its going to suck ... a lot. And vice versa. It just that if said sucky model happens to have a bomb, THEN we wield the dictate mantra. And vice versa. Now, you could argue that if x-y-z model only sucks asshole say, some of the time... in a very general sense of the "use model bias to normalize a model's chance for success" method, we can pick and choose which situations may "prone" the given model to error production vs others. That requires more pure objective categorical approach ...which I'm not sure the lens of dystopian lust we view modeling performance lends very well to such application. Buuut -this week's Euro - I suspect - may fall into the latter. Particularly, this pattern contained within its self, may be exposing the Euro's weakness and it will probably repeat said weakness... So, through excoriating the straw man ... I've used that lambasting to justify the Euro may be under-done with the amount of QPF and overall organization with that quasi-southern stream, return flow mass of ...whatever in the hell that turns out to be mid week. Just like this present one, there are enough super-synoptic scaled arguments for something of that nature to take place, from a varied source work, to question the Euro there. The system has detail devils that could provide a sneaky wintry headache in the interior. At 84 hours off the 00z guidance suite (excluding the island Euro) ... there is a 1035 mb polar high and fairly fresh low-lvl cold in place over New England.. But curiously, in as little as 6 to 9 hours, said node of high pressure repositions automagically some 700 naut miles SSE over the open ocean east of Cape Cod... too fast for meaningful backside advection to have transported warm through the total thickness depth of the 500 mb column. So, what happens is snow breaks out on a S wind... Fascinating. And, the overall translation speed of the whole mess is so fast, that by the time any such scouring could have taken place, we've generated a cyclonic curl along the warm boundary S of the south coast, which would close the book on that happening in the latter hours of that event. It's weird, but it's like "cheating" to get to a cold solution ... quite apropos for a season that proverbially seems to have broken the Law Of Averages already...

3-6" event

His passion for it all is perhaps inspirational ... if not adorable ... but for the life of me, I cannot detect any way to clamp down the utterly unstoppable spin-up to fervency that originates from that I.P. address at the mere sight of a single blue toned QPF pixel ... carried away into an imaginative surrealism of cryo dystopic horror

I could see back in the Walter Drag days of NWS tickering along the bottom of the Weather Channel ...circa 1992 .... a winter storm watch being issued over this... and the discussion that reads, " ...WITH OPT TO DOWNGRD WWA ON NEXT SHIFT/FUTURE RUN SUPPORT" In this day and age it's going to be pulling teeth to go with an advisory, though, under the same circumstances. Not intending to impugn any agencies here, but it is funny how the culture's changed -

So for what it adds... the new CDC numbers are in and the EPO is reflected nicely with a robust sudden correction negative...

That's a fantastic -EPO in the D8-15 operational GFS, however, and low and behold ... the Euro also D6-10 extends high latitude ridging into the vicinity of the Alaskan sector, tot .. So much so that it's even pinching off a +3 SD ridge node toward the end of the run. I checked the individual GEFs members and they two have more than just a mere semblance of this phenomenon in that same time range. There may have been more or less suggestions for the onset of a -EPO to date ? I haven't honestly paid that close attention to it, ...but, the complexion of the operational runs from 00z (and may as well add the 06 oper. GFS too) were certainly enough to draw my attention. That's impressive operational agreement on the overall look for D8 --> Which unfortunately ... is not a declaration of successful -3 SD EPO and all the concomitant gelid inspirations it can mean... It's just that this for me, it is a new-ish signal, and/or a signal that's gotten a major steroid injection. That's a fair amount of instantaneous weight when both major players agree ( in fact, compare the operational Euro's 192 against the 00z GFS' look at that interval and they are uncanny similar), and the majority of individual GEFs members are also on the same page up in the NW Territories to Alaska. In other words ... not exactly hurting deterministic confidence, either. So what does it mean..? Well, for one, we await some constancy ...I'd like the same total weight to repeat for a couple few days ... Then, it would raise confidence that winter is not intending to end by March 1st. -EPO could also mean loading cold into western N/A ...which is actually both good and bad for winter enthusiasts... If it's one form of the -EPO model, you end up only exacerbating the SE heights and we can have a compensating warm bulge over the eastern U.S. If it's the other form...where there is a kiss by a +PNA it can lengthen the wave lengths and push the cold loading on a further E total loading...and then things get fun real quick.

It's funny you mentioned that ... I just said that exact same thing in my internal monologue ( ...that then aired to the straw man in the room.. heh)... This system is not really just an "over-running" ...if by that we mean a stationary boundary with some oblique isentropic steady overlopping. This has a primary up to about ~ Erie PA ...then a clear Miller B, E of Jersey that scoots ENE SE of ISP ... and that frontogenetic look that unzips west is definitely tied into that overall mechanical evolution. Thing is ..we tend to ( ... or perhaps have gotten used to) seeing that whole cinema in the models with lots of isobars and intensity overall. But from where I'm sitting ...this is a pretty clear Miller B system that's just happening to transpire down the ranks of overall potency. Be that as it may, the initial isentropic lift transitions to more mid level "magic" and even a semblance of CCB ... and whether this thing then goes on to merely mimic a Norlun or is (most likely) a hybrid between that and some weak lag-back f-gen forcing ... and to what amount of each, heh... at this point, that's sneaking up here as a solid 24 hour performing winter appeal that even in my stolid eye-roller tendencies, I can admit is sorely needed for this particular social media bastion of straight-jacket rockers. haha.

Calling it over running with this thing but it clearly morphs cyclestrophic as an event ... and then ends as an inverted trough too. Wonder if there could even be a NOrland signature they're just looking at the pressure pattern

tough expecting the Euro to cave any direction at < 4 days... if it happens...so be it... but I wouldn't be shocked just the same if the collapsing, en masse, goes toward it and not the other way around it's happen before with that particular model's acumen... barring some sort of quantized improvement by the others, probably should expect it to happen again at some point.

Fwiw - the GFS parallel run has had very good continuity spanning some 4 to 6 cycles ...depicting light to moderate snow events/mixers. Monday...next Thurs...following Sun...etc

I'm not as tuned in these days ... as my personal druthers are sort of moving on from winter... But, upon glancing over things I'm not altogether turned off by the notion of a light to moderate (minimal) impact snow event on Monday afternoon-ish.. The overnight GEFs are in very coherent agreement with the operational run, and there is no reason (in my perception of matters) why that type of solution can't "fit" into a compressed higher velocity flow structure. We are after all not talking about anything very big or needing larger areal phenomenon to get accomplished with that. The GGEM has a flat wave with light QPF ... and the EPS was more robust than the operational Euro. I speculate that the Euro (that's speculate...not sure entirely) that the Euro has an oh-so subtle overly amplified western N/A solution with the trough, which concomitantly requires over production of the downstream SE ridge by some near equal proportion. But that might feed-back negatively (if so..) toward damping out the eject S/W mechanics that much critically more and it ends up losing a pallid system altogether and/or too much in general. It's also a correction that would "fit" inside this type of overall flow.

How did that individual die? I don't recall ever meeting him ... I do remember the announcement that he passed (rip) but I don't recall engaging in any of the condolences and so forth so I don't know - he must have been a good deal to longer legacy members because his name is often resurfacing... Don't mean to dredge up anything either - -----

Yeah ...the Euro's just been unrelenting with this pattern look it's cooked up for the mid and extended range. Right out to the end of the guidance... When you see that, that sort of near identical general display between D6 and D10 ... with almost zippo meaningful if identifiable at all modulation on major players... it just seems like we need a planetary collision to get the atmosphere to actually change. Excluding the rogue Nemesis hypothesis .... it way be that just a subtle tendency for the Euro to vestigially reach back to its old SW deep bias years ...it might be just enough too amped with the Rocky's trough to allow S/W's to keep their identities post ejections. It's a negative feedback ...when it ejects a parcel of wave mechanics that summarily gets damped to nothing in too much down stream ridging.. Contrasting, the GFS family or heritage of guidance types tend to have a progressive complexion over all...and that may actually help matters because they then transport S/W through less subtended ridging ... I mean, remove the Euro's cold air mass over Canada, and they're be nothing stopping cherry blossoms to Maine. But even in the Euro's more amped SE ridge appeal, it has cold bleeds and wedge highs...