Typhoon Tip

Yup...so is GGEM. Actually, when I saw that, I clicked the GGEM back several panels -it's actually been trending snowier.

yup... And the national view has it's place cuz ...well, if one is a serious weather dork, it's nice to fly around lol

Ah...I bet that 'unfurls' ...it wasn't supposed to get to 7, either. Typical behavior for that guidance - Not always, no... we'll see.

Heh... I wish it were that easy.. Problem is, I'm getting increasingly more leery ( not that you are anyone cares or asked for my opinion of course... ) with comparatives between un-like eras. The climate isn't just changing...it's done/doing so logarithmically - ...the old comparing of Ali to Tyson. Can't really do it. Shouldn't that ( logically ) immediately send ripples of uncertainty when assessing anything now, based up a time(s) prior to the linear part of that change ( on...1990s)? Uncertainty that would naturally only be exacerbated by the last 20 years when the climate change appears to be a curved ascent. You may not be "relying" on '58 through '78 to formulate a speculation framework - that's not what I mean. I'm saying that - for me - I don't think the 'climate signaling' is really being read right these days...because it can't in way? I'm just i gotta say ...I'm a little flummoxed that there is evidence in the actual dailies, for the HC to relax really everywhere around the NH lower latitudes...and the MJO is robust in Phase 7/8... so, the MJO "should" be able to take advantage and show it can exert an influence more. The HC was enveloping the MJO prior... sort of in the same sense why it helped mute the mega NINO in 2015-'16... Gradient detection falters when the HC engulfs - Where the f is it? I wonder if it will all happen at once or something. I dunno.

Not a mod ...but, that's perfectly valid to to mention the data, and ask/open dialogue about the implications therein... The 15th has been updated, by the way... It too is showing a bit of an "index betrayel" - as I tongue-in-cheeked a while ago, specifically with the EPO handling. There were clues, frets and starts in the operational tenors over the last week, for blocking episodes up over Alaska... The ensemble mean you provide above from ESRL hasn't admittedly been totally on-board in the EPS channel there... but, the PNA, as is clearly shown in both the 14th and the 15th, and priors, is going thru a whopper correction event. That bottomed out some -5 SD ...and ends up all the way to +1 at ESRL... +.25 at CPC. CPC didn't bottom the PNA as deeply as this product above from CDC ...but, still going from -3 or so to +.25 is impressive enough to send pattern change signal. My own failing is that I assumed with the MJO being so demonstratively punching a powerful wave sig through late 6 on into and thru phase 7 ( and probably deeper into 8 ), probably meant that the operational blocking suggestions had more legs. They may yet prove to be so...and it could come back..and prove this neg-head model bs from last night is a red herring. That's the problem with big continuity shifts... which the EPS' version of the EPO certainly represents a significant shift, we need more than a single cycle to gain confidence... I mean, 5 days ago, the EPS mean was charging into a -1-ish EPO, so if it can reverse, it can reverse again.. etc..etc. But here's the rub on that... that's based on 1978 through circa 2004 modeling ( prior to that, it didn't really exist enough so ..). Continuity is like 101 deterministic synoptic met. If the models change a lot, forget it... If they hold a solution, that is supposed to supply confidence. What's been happening in recent years is more like what they call in NFL Football as "chunk plays"? Only using that expression here, we are showing discontinuity in chunk runs. Basically... we are going 5 ... 7 someodd cycles worth showing ..relatively similar ideas, lending to confidence, but then getting the rug pulled out from underneath. This is also happening at mid and large mass scales, too - i.e., the teleconnectors. Not just individual modeling performance. That's making correcting and on-going modulation and anticipation...all of it, a head game. Fascinating. I don't know why that is ... but I'm loaded with science fiction speculation that could certainly convey with reasonable turns of phrase.

That one I provided came via NWS', one of their NP offices and going to their "Observations" link ... I've noticed these sites ( must be ) allowed to create their own interfacing for obs, under a standardized page formatting - comes off that way... Anyway, I put in the "=bos" in the URL bar and it seemed to default the orbital view over the west coast, which is then easy to drift the image over any region of the country and then use track-ball action ( or whatever tech) to then hone in, when/where it automagically fills in with a denser number of sites but very quickly. And that's good.

Keep that out of it... that would be my advice ( bold ) - not that you were seeking advice, per se just sayn' You may be right? but this is a politically charged sentiment... I would suggest, admittedly out of hand, that if you leveled and/or couched your climate/weather -related thoughts in this sort of missive, that may be why the mods opted to remove your text from the thread(s).

I don't know if y'all know this exists but I like this NWS product: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=bos It's got a reasonably decent density when scrolling in, and it's NWS sites which - in theory - we can eliminate the uncertainty of the "back-yard phenomenon" of Wonder ground/ general public. I can't wait to see a tuck cold punch on this product... Maybe we can do that this weekend when the GGEM verifies -heh... right.

No, that climate-reliance doesn't work any more. it doesn't ... At least I don't think so I'm pretty convinced/confident in my interpretation of matters ... until I see empirical data that offsets what I just wrote: "shut off the -EPO/quasi -EPOs, and the we flip too warm for said circuitry of excitement... really fast. " It's like we're narrowing ( but not lost altogether - seems to be a tendency for people to knee-jerk react to negatives as though they are meant as absolutes... we're just talking juggling tendencies - so far..) our margins for error. We need blocking to deliver cold, without the bloated HC super-imposing with R-wave roll-outs like last month's worth of heartache.

It'll be interesting to see the ESRL EPS version..

Mm.. I don't know about that. I tend to disagree. warm ENSO pattern orientations in this era? I can't condone that. We seem to be getting it hammered over our heads, though still can't feel the knocks of pain because of underlying stubborn neurotic obsession and drug lusting for this cinema/modeled -related cryo dystopian thrill... eh hm, blocks that truth from getting in, but, shut off the -EPO/quasi -EPOs, and the we flip too warm for said circuitry of excitement... really fast. That tendency to 'not have cold in bank' ( so to speak ) is/has been getting more obvious at our latitude. Probably duh duh duh dunnnnnn do to CC. Nope...eyes roll. Argue. bash...troll... come on ...bring it on... But, you throw a warm +PNA variation into this thang and sorry...game over. You gotta have the cold source. Some hyperbole here, okay ... but large perspectives get what I mean.

Yeah I dunno... that seems to be happening in the EPS cluster/mean/derivatives rather newly. Interesting. Several of us were just remarking as recently as last week, how the EPS mean was in the other mode .. That is a 'betrayal of index' - that's been happening with increased frequency, also, in the last five years. It was literally showing the opposite/mirrored look as recently as 5 or 7 days ago. It's really rather remarkable that the weight of that would do so that quickly - particularly considering the Pac relay into the EPO domains has a tremendous proxy on the total circulation over this side of the hemisphere, so intuitively..that much mass should exhibit more "immovability" in products that assess their modalities. Anyway, that's a pretty fantastic diametric reversal there in Bluewave's product... At first I wondered if that was old, ..I mean, it wouldn't be the first time the lucid social-mediasphere knee-jerked out a post and forgot to look at a time-stamp ( lol ) But nah... it says 01/14 so. He mentions the MJO is passing robustly into the western hemisphere and he's right. The pedestrian URLs plainly show this ... At least as of the 14th. The 15th should be out shortly to the free web. But here's the thing, +EPO is actually anti-correlary in the left side of the Wheeler chart/Phase regions in the climatology. So there's something amiss about that/going here. It may simply be that the N. arc of the Pacific Basin is also doing a kind of index betrayal, and is just not going to be entering the "constructive interference" with the MJO as previously mentioned by my self, and most likely surveyed by most others onto this sort of stuff. Have to monitor that... because the MJO's efficacy on pattern forcing is pretty significantly and coherently modulated by constructive -vs- destructive interfering hemispheric states. In other words, the Phase 7-8-1-2 regions need to "sync" with a hemispheric circulation mode, and then they synergistically amplify the flow more than the sum of their parts - so to speak. That's the construction ... The other way? That's when the WPO and NP/EPO don't give a ratz azz whether there is a wave of deep convection propagating along between 20 S/N of the Equator out underneath... They create no synoptic channels for tropical forcing and the physical feed-back gets suppressed = destructive interference. Modeling the "sync-ability" is logically the best course.. I guess I'm reasoning thru this gunk out loud.

Without having looked at anything else that 500 mb series on the 18z GFS was .... aw haw some

And not to toot horns but ... that's not taking into consideration the larger scale and degree of under-pinning scaffold changes and how the boreal winter hemisphere is going to exist over/ upon the relaxing HC stuff. Which is not pseudo f'n science man. If it's getting warm, it has to be looked at uniquely ... which there is not. As an aside, even the EPS /oper. Euro MJO's are blasting Phase 7 and that's a -AO correlation. Good look warm mongers -

yeah, I was kidding... it's that confluence of different air mass types right within like pixels of one another. Looks like Pacific polar air, with arctic and maybe some sort of old continental polar rot.

Yeah ...agreed, as it sets now in the guidance ... Funny, a couple hours ago I was musing that it was kind of not a cutter too because it wasn't really get N of our latitude before shunting E... What happens? Immediately, the runs instructively go N of our latitude ah well... It may be that it was too much to ask for the ballast of that thing to be on the cold side given the flow structure and various inhibitions - oh yeah. We'll see.. it's a cold air mass... and that high "could" be too liberally eroded.. .hell, what if it turned into a short duration icer ... fast flow narrow margin-sensitive event/patterns cannot discount weird shit.

Yup...I recall... Or...a -PNA storm too. I guess when the MJO is on the right hand side of the Wheeler, might be harder to decompose which is which ...but matters perhaps less.

I hope not..

It's a weather chart ...not something you typically find on a weather-related social media outlet, I know -

This is nerdingly fascinating ...

I joked about this yesterday ...or the day before whenever that was, ...this ending up the ST L. seaway..

Ha ...I was just coming in to type, "hey guys, the Euro appears to have bumped south" The only thing different between this run and the antecedence is that the physics are coming over land as of the 12z initialization ..over San Francisco ... JMA had this solution yesterday, by the way -

anywho ... looks to me like the models have settled into a reasonably acceptable consensus here. It's technically not a Lakes cutter - more like a partial one? I know, it's annoying to read that, considering the primary's strength and vitality, sitting over the Thumb of Michigan like that. It may be more philosophically interpretive, but the low doesn't get N of that latitude.. It smartly starts moving due east, so it sort of 'incompletely' cuts... It's really - I think the best way to define emotively - a giant piece of shit disappointment, for vested types. I mean, why mince words.. ha. What stops it shy of anyone actually eating said shit... is that it mercifully does vomit some lead snow where the front impacts WAA over that cold air in place. Which is nice...sure... Looks like 2-6" of wet snow, creted by backside polar/arctic flashing... Sort of just refitting what the last 2 weeks eroded. Next!

Without even looking ( then ) ... can we assume that the run has a historic blizzard for everyone from D.C. to Maine - ...just spit ballin' but it seems pretty clear based upon your jest, that's what this 12z guidance must be indicating. heh

I was laughing when I wrote my reply The pun was "unbearable novel" ? goes both ways.. there's no cadence, Ray - you can't make "jokes" without tone. blah blah