Typhoon Tip

Finally flipped to 31.6. Just starting shard on flat surfaces.

heh... without the ageosrophic motion getting going this is patch work ... until latent heat of phase change makes it a wash ... I'm 32.1 and straight rain here - go wonder... we'll see

Firstly keep in mind ... the AO and NAO overlap domain space. One cannot logically disconnect them entirely ...wrt to phase correlations. So, saying "...-NAO; not a -AO" can't be correct. Secondly, the correlation with the MJO to the hemisphere is a hemispheric scope and scale - like ...not trying to be a condescending douche, but the arctic oscillation domain space umbrellas the whole rampart above the 60th parallel... The MJO may in face effect in quadrature because it's a wave ... and therefore has an effective up-down coordinate with it... It also depends upon the AO orientation, too... It's never unilaterally influencing when in negataive(postiive) modes. So, the true relationship between the MJO and AO is a fluid one in time...and is never 1::1 because of all these moving pieces... The totality of the MJO correlation with the AO is papered... I can't dig it up here but maybe later I'll find it..

I give it 50/50 chance of moving toward nothing... ----- Re the MJO "favorable" narrative... WRONG! The AO is prognosticated by every source to soar to +4 SD spanning some 2 ...2 and half weeks. The MJO late phase 7-8-1 are correlated to -AO Those two facets offset one another ...i.e, that is anti-correlated. Which means ... the hemisphere is out of sync above the MJO's input/dispersion ... and that means the MJO's influence is thus more likely damping out. I suspect the Euro's camp is closer to correct with that wave propagation in terms of overall amplitude - less the details of the weird inflections in the curve.

pointing out the obvious ... you don't need a "bomb" to get big snows... I've seen bombs snow 6" and stationary boundaries bust 14 and a half in early April ... anyway, I think that situation there is overall loaded with miss-direction potential though - a resounding theme for this winter. There are conflicting schools and it's difficult to know which will dictate the final outcomes - perhaps more obviousness. 1 .. .being that the flow is less than ideal for bombs - I agree with that. We don't have a more text book sloped/meridian flow ...tumbling a S/W from the top shelf with favorable W-E wave spacing setting it's greatest amplitude sights on the lower OV to MA regions.. What the Euro was doing was "stretching" the flow in the prior runs... Now, it seems to be stretching less; but, that means that the ridge position still being out along or even slightly W of the west coast.. .puts the primary wind-up region through the Lakes, and so removing the stretch it ends up west.. 2 ... it enters a plausible clue to GFS error ..in that one of its peccadilloes is that it runs a stretched/stretching/progressive bias in the mid and extended range. This is noted by NCEP and modeling et large. Not really debatable as it's an empirically measured bias in this particular model. Which... unfortunately could very well be re-introducing too much coastal/Miller B detection ..because its not supposed to have extended its mechanics that far E in the first place. See how that insidiously leads one to believe one run over the other? As an aside, that kind of bullcrap antic has been going on all f winter long! It's pretty annoying... One error gets corrected right into the production of the other models error, concealing the truth as proficiently as imaginable. There is yet a third option... 3 ... there is no reason why the anomalous stretched flow can't take place. It's basically a zonal flow construct with a very potent wind max ripping through it.. .and given any tendency to curl at all, the previous Euro runs were then breaking the wave ... if by chance alone, in a near ideal spatial-temporal range. I don't know if I'd carry a torch very far for that solution though as it's problematic enough for the models to handle fast zonal regimes, let alone details such as where and when in the flow buckling takes place.. Forget it. The 06z GFS trended somewhat toward the Euro's 00z run... fwiw - I would feel better about the "bomb" ...hell, even the Miller B at all, scenarios if the western heights would bump more toward Montana... Dakotas would be better. Otherwise, we're waiting on an anomalous flat wave scenario to return, which by very nature of "anomaly" is rare. Nice... lets light the fires of hope for a "rare" scenario in an "extended" outlook. That's usually ends well...

Oh well. Didn't put an exact number no but because mesos tend to goose QPF when they come inside to 60 hours… I think that's what it was. Euro had biggish numbers though and that threw this for a loop

Not sure but it looks substantial

NAM lost 2/3rds of its QPF

Forget the mid 30s ... what's the DP

Doesn't seem to have the typical sfc AGS northerly drain... I don't know I just don't trust the models with the boundary layers east of the Berkshires/White Mountains particularly when you have higher pressure north - that never ends warm or well for warm thinking and failing that fairly obvious input I wonder if this one of those deals.

Yeah I hear ya ... Any thing that swirls, right - Ah that's commonly referred to as a Fuji Wara effect, named after the scientist that first identified that phenomenon of a two distinct cyclones locked inside the same general ambit of lower pressure/larger cyclonic circumvallate ... Usually given enough time, one will become dominant ...usually by gobbling up the potential vorticity feeding the general system ...and then the other gets absorbed as an echo rotation ... vanishing. The exception in using this definition is that Fuji's model was concerning Tropical Cyclones I believe ...but the phenomenon is extendable to other atmospheric events ... that time sensitive loop now gone being one such occurrence. In this case, I'd surmise the anchoring low pressure is probably in the 700 mb level

The oper. version shift whole field scale in favor of a more Euro-esque evolution ... hour 168. May not end up exactly the same way but the fact that it moved in that direction is the take away.

For what it's worth ... comparing hourly intervals ...the 18z GEFS is way amped compared to it's 12z mean for that D7-9 time frame.

Yup... this was my target for the day ... a semblance of a nod from the EPS toward the oper more amped look... That's definitely an nod- but an important one for actually getting it done... Lots of time and peregrinations to go through but not a bad table set for D7 - considering... that's good for any ensemble mean to have the coherency in structure at this range.

I wonder if there's ever been an event where for 2 hours it was 32.13 and for the next 2 hours it was 31.981 .... over and over again for two days. Like the aggregate/intervals count = 0 C exactly but because of the oscillation you get exactly 0 ice - awesome

about that 32.1 ... ...Nature, regardless of discipline, loves to do that - ever noticed that? It likes to put the whole universe behind a single decimal point that defines the whole system. Interesting ...

Oh me too .. .for now...

Could all still go down as a 32.1er ...

I'd rather not lose power myself... but - anyway, not that we're exactly "riding the NAM" or anything but since we've discussed it .. this 18z run is actually even more QPF loaded with central and E/Ma now approaching 1.25" suggested by the FRH data... The BL looks a tick warmer ... but it's still +1 or + 2 at Logan at the end of 48 hours with moderate fall rates ... The thermal strata is definitely water and not pellets falling ... suspect that's accreting inland though.

In fact there's enough ensemble support - if only using the GEFs ...haven't seen the EPS... - the period may be a tick or two above the background confidence for that sort of time range... I'll give that much... That SE ridge is a turning into a late 1990's pig this winter though... I haven't commented on that so much but it's been nagging.

It's mechanically gifted .. no doubt but that surface evolution leaves a lot on the field... Weirdly weak compared a negative tilter closing off and plumbing an additional some four closed contours at H5 should drill a hole in the Earth but ...heh, guess we go with a 1001er huh Three cycles of consistency for "some" thing to be in that time frame. Some of the GEFs members did come back with it on this 12z cycle so it's a looker ... Hopefully it doesn't turn out to be a Mona Lisa - get close to it and ooph...

That's a pretty classic look right there with that well of tap-able cold to feed in... right down the geographical viaduct from Maine. If the concomitant wake/meso low scooting pass Cape Cod ... tell you what, it's a higher sensitivity to so much as a 2 mb of depth could almost be in lock step with whether places like BED stay all ice or 32.3 -it

Yeah...that's a bit of a surprise with the Euro QPF... I mean I'm not making that up ..the business about the QPF tending to be pricey when the NAM is in this time range... But, seeing the Euro goose this bad boy - heh... yeah

Insidious nature to this because it may yet only be 40 or so with the dp of say 31 ... but the sounding at 925 telling more the story? I'm not seeing an actual "surface" push but it just sort of flop defaults the BL into dicey cold scenario in the mean of the various guidance' -

mm... and if the cold loads more robustly in the lowest levels, it'll start having to correct deeper too ... so that warm layer may be adjusted higher and thus cooler, if that adds any more wanted pang to the headache - no ...not saying snow to anyone else reading this... it's would mean more sleet versus straight up ZR in this context...