Typhoon Tip

Heh... if that storm happens next week and saves a little face on the winter, the impetus there is "little" ... Mr Bouchard still fairly wins the necessity for this winter to go f- it's self.

Yeah ...but just my experience with the UKMET in that range ...it's like it piles up the flow near the end, and maybe correction east like said isn't a bad option - agreed. This is like a 59 yard field goal attempt to stop a 40-0 shut out the way this winter's been going -

If that run went out to D7 I bet it tries to lift that 995'er up the Hudson tho -

GFS is outpacing the southern stream with a helluva lot of total progressive manifold velocity - I mean it's moving/reshuffling the L/W straight on through over the top of the southern stream wave, and just leaves it behind. It's a cold front... The Euro/prior GGEM wanted to slow the N/stream down... It's hard to know if they are just playing into their own biases. Same holds true for the GFS. These models tend to meridian bias vs progressive tendencies, respectively, and it seems they are running with their own tendencies to do so. The GGEM's 12z run certainly bucks it's bias... Then there's the seasonal tenor of missing opportunities and least excuse imaginable ...and often, creatively seemingly to rub it in, too ( haha ). But, there are some vestiges about the flow overall that suggest its a bit more relaxed than a month back...and this is sort of transitioning into that regime this week. It may be growing pains/transition in the runs... The AO is trying to neutralize, albeit transiently this week ...and if that is so over our hemisphere, that actually helps because it eases off the isohypses counts between JB and the Gulf, and may allow a Euro like fantasy more truth. If the Euro comes in ...ah hell - it'll be interesting to see that run.

Ah ...no - these are just observations I'm making. Personally? Beneath 'cautiously optimistic' - as in not as much as that. The seasonal music doesn't groove like this is going to happen, and there's some objective merit to recognizing that trend without it being just histrionic/angry subjective hand waving - There are reasons this season sucked... as I've opined ad nauseam since ... oh, 2005 actually ...how the hemispheric winters are speeding up velocities because HC expansion/ing into the boreal heights and the flow has to physically speed up...and it's an interference pattern - for good or worse is a case by case scenario. This year's been heavily biased in negative interference...

NO shit ..wow, that look right there is a K.U. actually ... prerequisite set up - Also, folks... I did a total wave space comparison and ending on D5/6 that GGEM solution off 00z is ( per my own estimation ) aoa the 80th percentile a March 31 1997 analog. The Euro's phasing is more believable through D6 but it somehow manages to bi-pass the two streams when the day prior, they were already apparently/seemingly integrating along the MA.. Not sure that's physically plausible but it's like "dis - integration" ( literally) after the fact going from D6 to 7 ...and ends up with a middling low up near NF and the mid level N/stream mechanics with blue balls off the lower MA like ...what happened - where did she go. It was already there and the depiction looks united on the coarser renditions, but somehow the S/stream mechanics slips the N/stream despite the grid spacing - interesting...

Yes...bingo! Ephemeral indeed ... I'm not sure what the EPS tele 's look like, but the American don't really support anything other than a big warm up erupting in the first 10 days of March. ( not that anyone asked, but we flip the clocks in 9 days ... I'd be tickled pink if I piled out of work that Monday, with a 75 on the car dash, windows down, and the sun still 3 hours up on the horizon ) Anyway, the term 'hale Mary' leaps to mind, like a last gasp attempt to save a little exit face - ... I dunno, but March is a long month... and we really have to get to Easter to really close the books around here. Some years, ...heh, like this one, the book is slammed shut out of rage way before then but, objectively... we could put up a week at 70 F and still white out on the 22nd of March... before melting it all off the next week. This March is about bi-polar swings of tormented loss and real hope. haha

Mm...ridge in the west, unlike pretty much ever since early December, is actually depicted in a good longitude ( axis ) centered on D6 ...check. What I don't like is the impulse in the south that offers the seed/enticer for the stream interaction/phase ... it appears too concerved given the heights along the Gulf/continental interface latitudes leading (D's 4/5)... It seems that would be absorbed a bit more.

It was 10 F here a couple weeks ago one morning... I dunno - seems like an impressive cold shot to me. In fact, there's no lack of cold air ...it's just not being delivered and/or sustained around or geography. Just look at the polarity in the Euro at D10... While not a testament as to it's probability of occurrence by any stretch, there is still a vast pooling of sub -20 C 850 mb layout over the Canadian archipelago of the N. Nah issues has been the super-structure of the hemispheric flow won't align into a delivery/sustaining scenario - and hasn't really not once all year since mid December, for whatever reason. Not all all times..I mean, he have been side-swiped by impressive cold, setting up a couple a good radiational cooling morning ... and those single digit anomalies too place. But, the lack of sustaining is certainly true.

don't be so literal it's a goodly bit tongue-in-cheek. "It wouldn't shock me" is a common trope for half hearted seriousness

You're problem is that you think I'm trying to predict something there... that's an OP ed approach and conveyance - look up what that means. Opinion piecing isn't what you are after there -

Oh, 1888 is coming ... that's the thing, people read missives like that, latch on to one thing, and then almost compulsively over-react - but ... this is what happens when you give provincial rabble that virtual podium and mike of the Internet - Also, you get sociological histrionic crisis' that flirts with anarchistic meltdown. Space and remoteness, and dimmer technology used to protect actually, because by the time time "word" spread, it was already marinaded to truth by the crucible of time it took to actually get that word around. Now, it's so easily disposed, there's 0 zippo no vetting. Just misinterpreted source and reaction. But I digress... I'm kidding half way here... don't over react ahaha

No argument from me... In fact, I was digging around out in the main forum with those seasonal outlooks and found a post I made back in October hinting pretty strongly that I feared no reason to go against the climate migration model and the HC expansion/fast flow contamination issues ruining this winter, just like last year. Gee, what the f happened? Sorry, it's pretty clear that we had trouble with stream mechanical phasing, and cyclgonic entropy was large because of the torn open atmosphere. Yeah, I've been warning for a long time now ( meaning five seven or eight years ) that most these seasonal outlooks, few appear to have taken the latest research/observations/CC factors into account and still prog with too many vestigial influences of 1965 causation manifolds between water, land, and the more ephermal atmospheric indicators. They are not valid in 2020 ... hint - those method/validity started eroding in usefulness ... roughly around the onset and post the super-nino of 1997, and have gotten really quite obviously less than useful in the last five years. I was just talking to Harvey Leonard earlier today about this, he made this statement to me, which was a veritable echo of my own sentiments I made in a passing comment/missive in one of these scrolled threads in here, a couple of months ago: "I have never really seen one quite like this, for combo of warmth, and not even any “close calls,” or “near misses” since mid December." In concept this is exactly what I said to y'all, 'it is getting increasingly more difficult to sustain a snow potential atmosphere at our latitudes of North America, without some sort of either concurrent or antecedent, direct -EPO loading to support' I dunno - when combining the total worldly perspective on matters, we may already be in a Philly climate now... Wouldn't shock me. I mean, most empirical evidence to date in support of the CC stuff, shows that the change has exceeded modeling expectations ...in some case by decade(s) depending on the focused metric. Why not blow our f'n winters away too - But, before anyone panics, even in a Philly climate ( if more than merely tongue-in-cheek) it snowed a foot last week south of there in the slope country of the Carolinas. There are no absolute boundaries in climate, it's all about rarity.

It was 2015 ... We had 120" ( average ...some more, some less) spread out over a month, which is 12 feet... So in an affect ( or is it "effect" in that context - ) 2015 was worse by a factor of two. Although...hm, they say 4,5 and 6 feet on the level, and that about matches what happened in my town... At max static depth I had 50" ... It was hard to stack higher than that, despite being so cold during that fabled February, because the snow was so low ratio and so pancaked by it's own weight. I think a lot of the specter value is era/adaptive relative. I mean, 1717 was a pre-industrial pump, lever, and oxen powered culture, replete with 'state of the art' log cabins and no plumbing in most cases. No automatic home heating. Nor refrigerators... and so on. We can stock a fridges and load up on Netflix and wait it out these days, and with snow plows and higher tech solvent chemistries on roads ... what's 20" ? whatever... I never was delayed by that 16" deal we had in Dec... Back in the 1980s when I was a kid, that would have been an geological epoch! Now, I think I made the gym both days of that. It's just not the same folks... and this is a dying hobby believe it or not, if for want this is a hobby about dystopian excitement. Not to mention, we have ( apparently ) earned our latitude a Philidelphia climate now. ...but we'll see on the latter.

Just like with troughs...the onus is on the Euro to be right about a ridge that amped in that time range - it's meridian bias beyond day 6 is prevalent regardless of what how those verification scores seem to consummately evade what is patently clear it does over the U.S. and that's blow up ridges and black hole troughs - pretty much both ways.

Two days ago I snarked words to the affect that given the American teleconnector spread ( both agencies, too..), another one of these absurdly early runs at 80 F ( and that's happened three times in the last five years between Feb and Apr btw ) wouldn't shock me; and then I just saw the 12z Euro with a +12 C plume over Pa/upstate Ny heading this way... Three or perhaps four years ago, we made 85 F with 14 C in March .. which can exceed that adiabat purely be dry air expansion. The CDC version is even more demonstratively warmer all fields, every sector right out to the end of Week 2 - good luck winter enthusiasts...but, having just humored and bewildered over the content the last several pages, it seems those types are collapsing under pressure. Good! save your psyches

Yeah again... flow relaxation finally, but to no gain because the underpinning pattern remains... It's just a less fervent version of the same shit. I was hoping with the AO toppling from +orbit to a mile above 0 SD ... ( jesus ), together with relaxing/climo, might herald some sort of quasi-blocking/"bowling" option. WRONG Anyway, if anything I gotta wonder if the operational runs are too cold obsessed in the East with this layout- granted I don't know what the EPS looks like but ...this fits the tenor/season trend too well to ignore so I'd almost be willing to bet on relentless persistence/verification, and go ahead and assume if the EPS flags any other semblance than a butt poking it's full of shit... But well see....

If this were the only guide... we're heading for an early run at 80 again ...

And seeing that D10 Euro with a spring bubble all over the OV/TV down to the Gulf, with a deep western trough, along with a total and absolutely perfectly wrong r-wave configuration for winter in the east like...everywhere, ugh ... fine

Yeah ...I can certainly understand why the winter weather enthusiast may be particularly disenchanted this morning... ha. I mentioned this yesterday ..day before, but the idea for the last week of Feb into early March was for two fold, pattern relaxation + plausible climate expression for season ending blocking. It's hard to say if that's absolutely impossible in total; if it took place, we still would run through a two to three week period where improved cold cyclone performance chances and so forth. But the overnight runs et al seem to really go out of their way to make that vision less likely to occur. The relaxation part is much higher confidence... There is a reduction in the isohypses counts from middle Canada to the Gulf of Mexico latitudes over our side of the hemisphere, but what is interesting in a not so enjoyable way to the cinema seeker ( heh ), is that the pattern is still a giant piece of utter shit. It's really just taking the same R-wave distribution, and relaxing it; but the vestigial structure is unchanging, and is a distribution that is really pretty awful. It's amazing to get an entire winter with no pattern evolution. That's a first for me. Since that early event in Dec, as far as I can surmise ...the pattern has not deviated - it relaxed for 10 or so days a month ago, but the underpinning look has not changed. interesting... In any case, the American ( cdc and cpc ) have never shown a good teleconnector spread since Dec btw - a point I've also made at times ( and ignored at times...) the whole way.

it's a funny battle on the Euro - like going to a derby ... I mean, that big high and it smashes the low right through it like that... But, the ridge is still too far west for a east coastal commitment on this run

Mm hm

Actually ...the American teleconnectors don't really flag that ... So, maybe a signal will emerge, who knows... but its a much easier assumption there will be a ridge with seasonal homage to spring on that day - heh

That's the kind of changeable drama one lives for ... that 300 to 306 hour GFS is fantastic in that regard. Goes from 40 F with cat paws at ORH (300), to 8" and post flash frozen powder in near 0 visibility 6 hour later... Hey, happens all the time, right ?

oh ...guess you did.. Goes without saying, it's more probable that there is a kind of physical marker our there around that time for an index/pattern change event, sans all details or even system type - the models will do that. A 'vulnerable' period gets filled in with 'computer imagination' when it's way out there in time.