Typhoon Tip

I see… The GFS is doing what the Nam did. It's got the primary further east but instead of committing more of a secondary just uses that/more mechanical power to be erode out cold air more which is not going to happen I don't think

GFS looks weaker with the primary too 60 hours not sure if it's actually weaker or just slower or both. I think Will mentioned the 18z euro was slower

It's wrong it's a little bit more intense with the secondary but ironically uses that to carve into the cold air so Kinda offsets… Probably a solution in flux still. northern Maine looks like gets hammered

It's crazy… Has almost the entire state of Pennsylvania pellet rattling east of Pittsburgh

It looks like the Nam is weaker with a primary and a bit colder up in the CAD region 60 hrs

The GFS parallel run was so intense with the front wall ( and slightly colder at that ...) it looks like 8" solid over much of the region then sleet and ZR to .25" accretion ends as 33 drizzle. That would be major impact event considering the crank up time is about 2pm on a weekday ... In that evolution, places going from virga and flurries to sub 1/4 mi vis blindness inside of a half hour... It also did some weird funky way correction south with the latter event next weekend, ... crucially in that solution, no lead side polar surface ridging ... ... Not saying I put much stock in that solution but, sufficed it is to say, there's time to modulate that bad boy. I know I know - f' off. No one's biting.. .But I chose objectivity -

Have seen this sort of layout before ... In fact, I distinctly recall seeing a tornado warning one time actually inside a blizzard warning ... The tornadic supercell strafed by and two hours later ... 45 mph N inland gales with RS flipping to S+ and temperature falling like a nympathic prom queen were going to turn the air to milk.

the pattern being so elongated (anomalous) like that ...with narrow latitude waves racing along ... the spatial-temporal layouts per panel should be taken with a heavier dose of incredulity. We got outside sliders along California while a contiguous broad trough is loaded down wind with s/waves... It's a very unstable look. Talk about buck-shot. Seems pretty ripe for error Not that anyone asked but ... I think the later Tuesday and then Friday wave spaces are essentially correct; but as to the details ...? meh. Particularly in the latter case, as presently laid out ...not something one should be 'disappointed' or 'happy' with one way or the other.

I mean it's sooo close to really committing to that secondary... For the secondary's sake, if those 500 mb jet mechanics can nose a bit closer to the Del Marva there.. it'd really take off.

As opposed to someone in a "great mood" telling someone else they can be a total asshole sometimes. How in the f! does "c'mon ..." equate to asshole? I get it - welcome to the hoi polloi

I'm a big fat hypocrite when it comes to the 'retention' thing... I don't care until my maxes are approaching, then I dial in a bit more. Shy of that? Don't give a poop. In fact, I'm entering the time of year where it can snow 20" in a fascinating bomb, and if it's 70 F the next day, I'm good with that. I've never been able to sustain more than 40" on the level... the impetus there: sustain. Once in 1996, and twice since ... The latter one in 2015, the snow was so light and gossamer, do to the obscenely cold temperatures, that the pack its self kept compressing down under its own weight. One of the reasons by I disrespect that incredible stretch ... well, "disrespect" is too heavy - more like ... mar the panache of it. Basically, we had 48" at greatest imby, when of those apex storms ended. But the next day, in 7 F cold, it was down to 40" ... interesting. Something about that 36 to 40" range where I wonder if you have to have something particularly rare or strange to sustain numbers bigger. That's a lot of weight, compression may in fact kick in there - but I'm not snow-pack structural engineer, just guesstimating - Back in 2001 or perhaps 2002... I recall a night at 'The Mad Raven' on Rt 20 in Waltham. I lived down off Moody street back then - man... I'm taken there nostalgically like a favorite song at the moment. Anyway, the usual... cigarettes and pints, with a shot of whiskey, and I don't know how it came up but this fellow was from Nova Scotia ... He pulled out some wallet pictures of snow, so high, that the his driveway was walled off by some 10 or 12' ... yes, feet! He said it was like the snowiest year up that way to date... which may or may not be true over cigarettes, pints and whiskey but you know how quaff goes.

Yeah... I don't subscribe to paid sites... or work for any organization that allows me to see the broader pallet of Euro products but from what they toss out for free, it doesn't seem like you can get through that solution without at least some snow... And, I'd add that said snow doesn't melt off by merely going to liquid, either. That would snow to roaring sleet ending as freezing drizzle NW of Willamic CT to BOS approximate line. Sort of correcting there a bit too -

Okay... let it go - I didn't believe you at the time.. why is that a big f'n ordeal for you. lord

I betcha this is a situation where if you want a cold solution ...a -NAO D.. Straight back-log would be more directly helpful. Because that trough probably woudn't be able to rotate up into SE Canada and might be forced S.

That a 72 hour Euro panel is amazing looking... seeing that sharp trough in Missouri, with that 1040 high sitting squarely in its path up in eastern Ontario/Quebec like that.

No, I don't believe you - move on... it happens.

I'm psyched I was able to strike a nerve like I did ...

Are we inside of four days ?

Mmm... it's abnormal to obsess in any realm - regardless of sport or weather. Not sure what you're after ...other than evasion of having to face the demon of it, which is what's really going on. But, you can't reach people or get them to be genuine about that, on -line... so yeah, fool's errand.

C'mon dude... one don't post " Thump, cut, cold, repeat. " around this particular group unless you're dancing around some sort of negative vibe. Whatever...

Forgive if this has already been brought up ... but, has anyone taken note of the extraordinary high pressure arming into the nation's midriff ? There's nodal 1048 to 1050 center in western WI this last hour... No wonder we're getting so many fantastic wind gust back east.

Just tuck into the enabling cocoon of time between Tues and Wed and pretend it doesn't exist...

That GFS looks like 4 or 5" of snow then warning ice for some band down in CT to NW RI to me. Just correcting for known model bias/llv resolution/handling with cold air and ageo wind is not likely allowing the GFS's cyclonic intrusion into boundary layer through RI that much. Probably end up "scalping" as we call it.. to a considerable distance NW of that zr axis. That's just the look of this one run.

Why is that bad? seriously...this is a good op for delving deeper into the murky psychology of 'why this crap matters' so much ... If it snows 4 or 5" ...then cuts to sleet and freezing rain, that's fine... Or should be - I'm starting to really get a loss to figure out what it is people are after. I think it's a conditioning issue... IF we had endured a steady diet of snowy events... this would be a pleasant diversion? But, since we have not experienced, ...pretty much any exciting winter of modeling histrionics combined with fruitfully snowing outputs... this is some kind of intolerable asshole event. ..Funny watching en mass, sheep be herded along by the vicissitudes of modeling AI - seems like it... Reality check ...for me anyway. If it snows 4 or 5" and then we get advisory level icing over top, that's fascinating phenomenon period.

Ah ha ha... meh, it's true though... The perennial solar minimum ends tomorrow why is it ... serious question: why is that just because someone writes about ...losing interest in the middle of February, that sparks smoldering resentment ... merely cloaked in good spirited ribbing? who cares? It's weird ... not sure what the mechanism is ... As though my or anyone else losing interest is a bad omen for one's own shattering illusion I guess