Typhoon Tip

That's a nother thing... I wonder if we're ever gonna get one of these big rosby rollout warm ups on D10 to actually verify - It's like the opposite of previous years with this model. Usually, there's a D9 bomb on every run that gets so common false people stop even commenting on it. This is like a phantom early spring opposite of that -

I was with you on that... The the error balloons from about D4.5 on that run, re that particular wave. It looks like the model overly conserves it's mechanics and digs it too prodigiously in toward W. TX or thereabouts... and then of course it has to then consider what to do with all that power once it is ejected... ending up in a upstate bomb. I suggest that D4-5 comes out flatter and that thing ends up a NJ model type low ...but I also caution, that's all predicated on the assumption it's right at D4, first.

Re the Euro... I'd like to point out a subtlety. Four cycles ago (12z yesterday), this was a stem-wound bomb up in western/central Ontario re the 5th-ish. 00z last night had that more Buffalo's longitude, with suggestion of a secondary ...at least attempt if not reflection. This 12z run seems destined to continue along that trend of correcting E... I just want to note, that the Euro tends to have a slight west/amplitude trough bias at D7+, so...this syncopated correction isn't without precedence.

Yeah...considering these next ten days to two weeks, looks like three potentials for inclemency: Jan 5-6, 8-9, 11-13 How those perform ( obviously) have more coherency the nearer in time, but It's not hard ( for me ) to see why we are "Lake cutter" saturated with storm tracks, in the mean modeling behavior this cold season. I put that in quotes because my take on things are at odds, philosophically, with the recognition of how/why lows cut early and turn polarward through the Great Lakes longitude(s) as guidance has biased. We are looking at a coincident result, more so than a pattern that typically drives those. The Hadley Cell bloated stuff is simply messing everything up. The storm track is being pushed N in the mean - this is papered... - and North America seems to be suffering the same. That's different from a pure -PNA/-PNAP flow construct. Having said that, there are ways to overcome that forcing ... There just needs to be relative anomalies embedded with the necessary power to do so. Which can and will at some point happen. As well, just because the HC is inflated anomalously "heighty", doesn't mean it will always be that way... So things can time that way, too. It's not a good era for modeling ...particularly latter mid and extended ranges, because the velocity saturation and 'stretching' of wave mechanics makes determinism at an excessive premium to put it nicely.

I couldn't agree with this more... yeah. Thing is, it's a sociological problem - if we want to put a sciency sounding label to it. I have a PHD friend in the academia of the Boston circuit of Universities ( MIT-BU-Harvard and gang if it helps to drop names...) and she's utterly agreed with me on that, that the GW "debate" isn't a debate - it's an advantageous era where people have become complacent with the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution -based tech culture. If someone literally feels physical and emotion pain and anguish as a direct consequence and penalty of GW, they'll admit it. It's that simple...thus, it's a sociological problem when integrating that baser evolutionary aspect into the whole. Humans... all animals for that matter, don't respond as well to stimulus they cannot directly sense through one of the corporeal senses: Sight, Sound, Touch, Taste or Smell... and usually, more than one is more convincing. GW? Doesn't have that advocate... It's specter is invisible...particularly when the person hearing or reading about it, is submerged in examples that are always somewhere else in the world, while always when they are sitting in a comfortable office or personal living space. Even the poorer classed hoi - polloi that don't have quite all the accessibility to the same advantages as higher echelon, live luxuriantly cozy existences compared to the 47-year old life expectancy of their paleo-forefathren ... People deny GW/CC ...whatever we want to call it, because they can...and, they will do what they can, if it takes not having to face that they can't live the way they've grown accustomed to living. That's the problem facing the World. ...and why that 'catch-22' will probably require a massive population correction and tech set back, before some form of non -profligate, responsible/conservative approach to building the scaffold of future society heralds the real next phase in human evolution. Which,...this is that turning of the page - it never goes smoothly... That's being optimistic, too... We don't even know what the finality of these detrimental evidences are, as they are still in the process of f'n the environmental as it is. We keep fielding papers that x, y or z is worse than projected it would be. ...list goes on... The catch-22? It's because the very evolutionary advantage that the vicissitudes of gratuitous chance endowed humanity with, the genius of ingenuity, appears destined to have created it's own demise. Cheers

I understand what you are saying /mean ... I think.. But for the general reader: one has to be careful with the above line of reasoning. It's used/abused, to negate the impacts of climate change to liberally...almost as a rationalization and denial of truth, because most in the business of doing so have too much to gain or maintain, in not admitting that it is a problem - more over, that it is a problem that all science included, most definitely appears to be human attributed. That said, there is another danger in the above line of reasoning; it also negates the necessity to use climate trend analysis in the setting of expectations. If the climate is demonstrating a logorithmic change ( accelerating one...) in either a negative or positive direction, wrt to any metric, it is wise to consider that ensuing period of time in question might exhibit that same tendency in that metric. Otherwise, there is no problem - the way I see it ... - it assuming events and systems in a case by case basis, independent of that expectation. People have trouble separating those two... but, it's really more like ... if a case ends up warm, and the climate curve is accelerating warmer, ...the probability was > 50% for that in the first place. The real problem here is that climate masks causality. People use that against the climate signal, which is false. Not you per se... but these are aspects pertinent to the present World, and one's that irk me.

This social -media arena has a concentration of those plugging their joy circuitry/dependency into the drama they see on charts. Blah blah ... been opining this for a long time, but at times it is still down right patently like the 60-minutes expose on psychotropic addiction behavior. Hm, I guess it's better than opiodes, but ... it doesn't lend at all to objective thinking/perception on matters. I'm with Brian ... you guys 86 a month based on what? Okay. To each his, her, or whatever variation of gender-reassignment's own I guess...be miserable if that's your bag man You might not have to wait as long as you think... Just look at member P8 at 228 hours from 00z last night. This would shut down the PHL-BOS corridor completely...

Yeah, Will and I were musing about the cold thrust possibilities... We figured - climo and experience - that the models wouldn't really see that discrete of a detailed behavior because it is still outside their resolution wheel-house. Something about the planetary/atmospheric interface ... the geo-physics are missing? It needs furthering science and evolution, because it's an area of modeling that as far as I can tell, is invisible to them. So, they set up but don't do the push, or that tornado ... you know? ... But it's up to human interpretation and experience to then modulate/fill in for those disadvantages. The art is not going overboard with buns and ketchup, heh And to your point, .. MOS is a climate sloped product as we know, so it performing better intuitively fits there.

Really an impressive melange event. Our glaze is the 'gray' type, because it's 90/10 water and pixie crystals mixed, which just means there a bit of air trapped in the ice.

Yup

Lol, message received loud and clear... That was the one thing we danced around before this thing, and that is that the models would f that up one way or the other.

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer. Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all, and 2 .. maybe 3" of cement on the ground. Icing was having difficulty taking place prior to last evening. We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day, then got interesting. We had a couple of thunderstorm around supper time - of all things ... Nary a peep re thunder in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event. Nonetheless, flash-boom-ba, with very large sleet pellets - probably stuck together... We then settled back into moderate sleet and ZR, in a fog of pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over here was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable. It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

Funny ... I didn't see one forecast agency, public or private, from government to television or social media alike, anywhere, put thunder in the forecast ... This meant business. Three brilliant flashes, loud thunder and moderate sleet with big noodles... Stands to reason on the nose of this powerful mid level jet currently fisting over... If it wasn't for our unique topographical suck factor drawing that cold down from the N... this was really about a warm pattern event, and may as well have been late summer. We score for having our predicament sometimes, huh -

Hmm... Looking around at Wunderground as an unofficial layout of temperature behavior... I'm not seeing that the cold push occurred quite as prodigiously as I thought it might, given that leading panache offered by the various models/blends for this thing. I thought I'd be upper 20s at the surface here in N Middlesex by now, with an even colder intervening region being fed by barrier jet ...offering a faux growth region below the deeper elevated UVM/warmer layer way up there... Net result, would be light to moderate sleet with some tiny aggregates mixed in. We are getting the sleet with weak growth snow, but it's wet snow...and though the surface did briefly drop to 31.5 about an hour and a half ago, it has since risen to 33 everywhere around... I can't say I'm disappointed if this ends this way. I'm not really a fan of icing... If we can ice to .33" accretion and stop, that provides the brilliant prismatic splendor while keeping the lights on the internet connected and the home heated... I'm fine with that

We just flashed froze here in Ayer. ...We had a thin sheen of watery sleet on the ground, cars and side-streets at dawn, but temps would not allow it to completely congeal as it was 32 .. 33 at most local Davis' type home-stations. Just in the last 45 min we're 31.4 (ish) at most sites, and the drizzle/pixie mixture has not only gone pure pixie, there is are small, steady light aggregates of snow accompanying. The water part of that slop is hardening quite fast! The snow ( I surmise ) must be nucleiating below 800 mb if those models were correct. There is an occasional ping along side the snow, furthering evidence of multi-layer genesis going on aloft. Fascinating

There’s an interesting blob of plain rain on ptype surrounding my vicinity to ASH while sn w-e-n-s of it. Refuses to flip over there just wobbling around in the loops.

34/34 light rain cat pawing yuck

This is a GW/ Hadley Cell bulge into a winter BD scenario. All fields exaggerated because of that and you end up with huge polarity. All these lows are doing this now… I can direct you all the papers showing how the storm tracks all over the hemisphere suspiciously being pushed north because of the HC expansion with global warming. It’s fn up the winters. Also the flow being so fast is definitely having an influential impact on cyclones frequency and amplitude

Wind flags are pointing southwest in northern New Hampshire Maine now and the temperatures of slid into the low /mid 20s there

Ptype rad indicates snow here but that ain’t happening

35/33 light rain

Yup..just contemplating this even for here straddling rout 2 ... 35/29... close but less than totally inspiring. I'm thinking this is a 33'er until we start injecting. But I'm also not looking at the soundings so I don't know how deep this marginal DP goes. If it's 5K feet thick than we could wet bulb to 32.1 -heh

12z NAM looks more like a big sleet dump for everyone N of he Pike.. I mean, just eye-ballin' the FOUS grid

It's an interesting mico-physical question/problem... Almost quantum mechanical/thermal. Stepping back, I learned when very young that the 'liquid' water in rain below 32 F (0 C) that is freezing on contact, is in a super-cooled state, ...similar to why water in a fast flowing stream still flows despite the water temperature being sufficient to phase change to solid. The kinetic motion of the stream water ...or in this case, the falling hydrometeors (always loved the Met term!), is not being allowed to change phases from liquid to solid because in order to change phases, there is a "puff" of smoke ..ha, a small quanta of thermal energy has to burst from the molecules as they assume the lattice of the crystalline form. The kinetic energy of the moving super -cooled stream water, or the falling super -cooled rain drop, is adding energy at the same rate, thus...keeping the liquid liquid. The reason why the liquid in these circumstance does eventually freezes is because the temperature falls below the kinetic energy balance, and it goes ahead and changes phase - it's just a matter of the freezing point being "reset" a bit down the scale as a thermal subtraction/addition problem. What then makes this even that much more complicated is that in the case of falling rain, we have to deal with the veritical height of the falling column - and as others have indicated, the melt level inputs energy into the hydrometeoroids at greater quantities, in situations when the sounding is exceptionally sloped positively. Like...say, this time! Anyway, if the height of the < 32 F (0 C) that exists under the melting layer, is very tall, even a very warm layer won't ( likely ) add so much energy to fail accretion when the droplets of water make contact and shed their kinetic energy. However, that concomitantly means that if the warm layer is very warm, and the cold is shallow, there's going to be less proficiency in accretion - but, ...that's concept. A calculation may demonstrate that the add/subtract therms aspect isn't appreciably large. So, with a +5 C 800 mb warm tongue flicking over top a -6 C 925 mb ageostrophic lower DP barrier jet, with that melt layer precipitating liquid into that region beneath, that may be tall enough and cold enough to send a goodly amount of mass through phase transition and scalp fest the surface. It's just deep and tall and a long time to feed lower DP air at an ~ constant, which helps cool the rain drops faster. Which brings us to another aspect... that final puff of released thermal energy when the molecules formulate into crystals, that adds heat to the column. An initially cold ZR will eventually torpedo it's own ability to ZR because of this process. I've actually witnessed dead calm ZR at 19 F end up 33.5 drizzle inside of 6 hours because there was 0 input of lower DP air to keep that thermal imbalance in play.

NWS is missing a critical conceptual component to this thing when reading their AFD's from overnight. This excerpt exposes that, ".. air located around 3-4kft at about -6C! Shallow cold air likely gets replenished later Mon into Mon night as frontal wave emerges off the NJ coast. This will increase low level northerly ageostrophic flow across southern New England. The net effect will be for the high ..." What they are suggesting of the storm moving off the NJ coast enhancing the "draw" of colder air down from the N is true at a baser fundamental level, but that is not ageostrophic! No, that process is a standard PGF (pressure gradient force) mechanical response. The ageostrophic forcing comes from a mass discontinuity that is set up because of a planetary/atmospheric topographical interface circumstance that is unique to this geographical region. Namely...the ~ N-S cordillera with the sloped to sea-level coastal plain elevation to the east ...and when cold air "folds" around the northern end of this topographic circumstance up over eastern Ontario and N. Maine, particularly when it's back-built by confluence/DVM supplying more mass, that dense weightier colder air starts filling in the described region, and will do so disproportionately at positive anomaly, relative to the existing pressure contour suggestion that is on the synoptic charts during the invasion process. It's the Earth-atmosphere interface doing that, not the PGF. That is the ageostrophic forcer... The low coming off the NJ coast enhances the motion of air but that's not causal...The ageostrophy is coming because that wedge of air is doing the work... wedging under whatever existing pressure gradient- balanced geostrophic wind there is in place. That is critically missing in their content ... If this were included, they might have modulated for a colder profile N of CT/RI borders in that region there... They speak of the initial condition of -6C at 4-6K feet as an impressive core of cold, offering to elevation sleet and ZR bomb in the Berks with more IP the Worcester Hills and ...and that's really clad work. But then they later only mention cold as reenforced later Monday afternoon ...almost as an afterthought in the cadence and style of delivery in that AFD and that's under-evaluating what is likely to be a pretty impressive flag touting invasion of steeply colder air with that, and it will probably surge farther south than even the finer-meshed guidance are assessing. That said, these are not intended to be dramatic terms or turns of phrase, either. Just a bit of a clarification. Their current headlines and Warn/Adv layout is ..prrooobably sufficient either way, because the general public doesn't delve this deeply ..much less have a clue what the difference is between ageo and PGF balanced mass fields even mean. May as well be talking about the far side of the moon. Even in a deeper more impressive cold surge mid or 2/3rds of the way through ( which to be fair, I was thinking that would happen earlier in time so I may be error..but given to their lack of aggresivity with that factor, they could be late, too), much of the QPF for southern/SW zones will be light, thus...this won't matter. Although, things my be error-dicey up there in NE Mass/interior SE NH where they've gone Adv ..but again, phew...the public doesn't really pay that close attention. Just a quarterbacking from the office chair moment ( Caveat: ...this could all pan out true by behavior, and still we end up annoyingly too warm by a degree ...)