Typhoon Tip

Mm... I'd argue that's an artifice of a product that has a subtle, but crucially important, tendency to back dig whole-scale pattern prematurely west. I wouldn't believe that pattern really averages that demonstratively -PNAPie ... It's been flagged like this all season, and we've trended more zonal ... Modeled flows have trouble when they near zonal constructs, as that orientation is really sensitive to permutation; the ensemble means tend to exaggerate those because of that sensitivity and end up flopping to prodigiously on a (-) vs (+) PNAP side depending which. That said, the underpinning concept you're making is valid ... a western heights surge and one that sticks, would be a bona fide pattern change and with that would come a concomitant shift in the mean storm track and storm characteristics and all that gunk. So sticking with that much ...yeah, agreed. If for nothing else, it's adnauseam looking at that structure at this point. Man, talk about a macro-scaled, foundation rooted heat-source-and sink hemisphere. This thing is like immovable -

Yeah but the closure should not have been closed ....couldn’t close under the circumstances… And it was also why it lead to more of an impactful looking system was because it had that closure so it compounded its own error .... assuming it does error I mean there’s still a chance It could come back I suppose but I doubt it

140 kts over a broad swath entrance/exiting leaving the MA out ahead of that sharp trough... which is actually associated with the previous wave. Truly extraordinary wind velocities over that region and that orientation @ 500mb. No wonder this thing ended up a flat dud. Can’t roll out ridging ahead of a trough when you got that kind of fire hose grading everything down. This follow up wave never had any chance of breaking I think the euro saw those extraordinary wind velocity’s and assumed that they were incorrect and tried to smooth those out and that’s why it ended up with it’s previous deeper lie

is anyone else having excessive slowness with Tropical Tidbits on phones?

I don't recall for that time span in question, 2008 - ~ 2013 ... which overall, I felt were a-typical springs sparing the harsh cruelty that is the New England geographical rectal polyp on Satan's 'roid place to be on Earth.. But I do recall a April in 2001 I think it was... that was a crazy hot April. We have like 4 days of 90 and 10 or more 80+ ...and most days otherwise were in the 70s... and one such day we were doing sets of tennis on the public courts there in Waltham, ...'bout 5 pm, temps in the 80s and a similar thing happened. A brief wind shift to the ENE came through, you could smell the sea air, and the temperature plummeted to 74. In April - I'd say those obscene years are 1 in 11 type return rate... maybe 1 in 13 or something, though wonder if we're just getting "lucky" in not having one of those lately with the CC shifting shit going on.

Oh yeah...that was a dream scape incarnate... man. Actually, there was another year where April was pretty balmy back then... earlier. Wanna say aught-9 or 10 perhaps. We had the March floods in 10 then I think April came along with an unusual dearth of BD fronts and that kept it tepid, and then in May we popped a 95 day in a long stretch of ridic warmth, one that even ended with a supercell over Middlesex Co that flickered continuous lighting underneath a full moon as it swept clean to the southern horizon - never saw a specter like that sky to earth... Good era for springs in there. That's ancient history. Funny...a co-worker and I were just musing about that at lunch, how it's been a number of years since we've had that kind of balmy spring. What's interesting - if fair to mention - is despite some of these rancid springs, we've actually had some bizarre early heat ... Remember February a couple clicks ago, we had a run in the 80s ... then, snow storms in March that I loathed and despised ... But we also had a March warm spell one year, also touching 80 ... both those years witnessed recidivism back into winter crime... and I consider 42 F mist for two weeks in May murder! Suppose that type of spring you're citing there is too exceptionally rare to ever expect that. It's the antithesis of 1995 front loaded winter. There's a reason there's only be one or two of them in the memories of those alive. We still get 40 to 45 days to make this fugger work this year... Then I'm out. In that time... yee haw... ya.. Boo ya... I'm all in ... let's do it.

It actually doesn't look terrible at TT .. Looks like it'd be a start as rain... collapse to brief snow and then may pound SE zones for a couple hours upon exit.

Bold is the only lesson in this... just imho - In a philosophical twist though, the GFS was the best model - if things go on to be the lame ass showing as it looks to be... Because why? regardless of how we get there, that shit panache has been jammed down our throats by the GFS the whole way... Maybe it doesn't get points for consistency in butt bangin', but for the essence of the act its self? it's been servicing inches far more consistently and prodigiously than this thing appears destined to snow. almost funny -

And I don't deny that Look ...I'm not insensitive to the notion that others get desperate and feel the sun coming back as a reason for urgency because ... they may even carry on with that negative-variation of S.A.D. that's recently identified by the psycho-babble sciences... who knows. That is why I always qualify that with "if you ask me" tropes or those like that, because I'm trying to make it clear, I don't like winter in March and April; that, and, I don't wish to troll the matter, either. It doesn't matter though.. .people are unfair and still think you are, because it's all about them so your the asshole if you don't relate to their own baggage. In fact, I f'ing ass loathe winter by March. Probably because I DON'T carry on with neggie S.A.D. variances... nor, that lesser newer form of psychotropic drama addiction that I feel is real - it relates to that recent 60 minutes expose' on the subject matter. I suggest a lot of the depression in summer from those the spend so much time in here seeking whatever they are, ISN'T negative S.A.D. so much: it's just a loss of that excitement circuitry/addiction at those times of year... What can I say. Get other hobbies and reasons to love and embrace life man - There's a lot a stuff there... but for some reason - and there frankly has to be one rooted in logic - there is a concentration of individuals in here that don't like summer. Forget the reason why... I accept that... and try to be sensitive to it by employing the qualifying tropes, but even that's not enough. People are so incensed by it the loss of cold and dark and the advent of sun and warmth, they actually cannot allow even the qualifiers - they just demonize anyone outside their own misery as dyckheads ... Oh well... Anyway, that's just the concentration in this social -media bastion. 90% of the society would rather it be 80/60 with picturesque CBs on the horizon... blankets, wine, fine cheese and a hot girlfriend in a field of waving wild flowers ... and the kiss of angel song on the wind. Not cryo death and darkness.... it's just the way the world is... Thank god the internet has arrived, and provided these cultural islands where special interest groups can be purified - at long last. We've found one another! haha. Anyway, me and my shit turns on and off really fast? If we get four days in the late 60s on January 20th thaw... I could dust hands and walk away, too. Get a big whiplash bomb on the 25th, I'm right back in the fray of the fun. Once the futility kicks in though ... mid February, save some rare years where fortune enables deniability ... I just can't help but think winter can tussle all it wants, July is still standing by.

Dude, hyping with such inflated numbers isn't very responsible as a Meteorologist - if you wanna be taking seriously ... you need to learn to go a bit more conservative when the models signal its time to do so.

With this Euro run... we have a better consensus though - it's just not ... right.

Course .. for me, if we get to Feb 10 and we're still playin' around with the denial of butt-bang game ...I'm out - screw it. Winter can go f' it'self. Time will tell..

2015 looked pretty bad on January 2nd that year. Granted...the global indicator may or may not bear any sort of resemblance leading, but sufficed it is to say...

Nor I " ... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario )," I said I was riding the Euro yesterday but I didn't like the 00z run to be honest and pulled the plug this morning myself... The fast flow is crippling in this case...too much gradient is keeping these/this open and progressive. it's always just a numbers game... either the wave adds enough or not. if not... next. the double wave structure with contentious phasing ain't helpin' neither. I suppose to be fair this one isn't entirely without hope... there's still 60 hours for this to re ...whatever. But frankly I don't know what we would be re-ing as it's been all over the place.

That NAM backed off the 06z S/W strength relaying off the Pac ( now ..) and that translates eventually into less ability to torque the flow and get things happening faster ... once that crucial bit of wave space succeeds the Mid Atlantic. The flow is so fast and compressed already that weaker waves pancake when they incur into the TV ...or attempt to, and then concomitantly slope positive.. = poop It would probably come down to excruciatingly tedious/minute sounding/grid initialization differences and probably NCEP wouldn't dig that deep. Could just imagine them writing, "DIFFERENCES DO NOT APPEAR TO EFFECT THE PROCESSING OF NAM" when it's clear there's a difference to everyone else

But the common denominator is someone is getting skunked - awesome ...

By the way ...i'm not sure if anyones noticed this...but I f-up routinely and "prematurely" post... I hate that. I keep posting two sentences by accident like palsy or something... then I have to scramble and finish the missives.

Just for the general information... this is not entirely true. There are plenty of examples of flat ridge eastern bombs in the KU reference guides and other historical sources for that matter. It certainly helps, and, in the majority of eastern north american, significant cyclogenesis events, you will in fact have some form of a western north american positive geopotential anomaly. However, there is another factor in play (... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario ), and it has to do with whether the flow is compressed in the east... At times more so than others... and if an ejected wave in question does so into a relaxed H500 mb isohypses layout, those have the best chance at creating their own lead S/W ridge roll-out and inducing the wave break without the large scale wave/positive/constructive interference feed-back. ..complex. There is a broader, longer termed systemic problem related to that... where the expanded Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes is increasing the ambient compression, speeding up of the ambient flow; that factor is robbing from S/W mechanics because the speed maxes are not differentiating as proficiently as they did in the middle part of last century.

Boy that 00z Euro solution was a quick mover ... so fast, in fact, my first impression was that the rains snow line would be moving east across the area at the same rate its ending... See-ya! But, the Euro being 24 hrly frames for use as poor boys ... may just sneak in several hours. And the 06z ... right - forgot about that. The 06z GFS is relaying the S/W over B.C. ... the Euro is naturally going to be detecting that in its grids, too. It's worth it to guess that a sudden small, yet crucially more potent morphology transitory down east of the U.S. could be related to that detection. And, if the 12z may yet offer more.

Low’s busted open between convection out at sea and the Q-G forcing back west

wow... sorry - I didn't realize that last paragraph was a poem like that. I should pull that one and polish it heh

00Z pops that near ISP ... any takers ?

Oh, this GFS solution is clearly a trend toward the 12z Euro in the H500 synoptic evolution - coherently so... I'd say it's an incremental improvement if one is of the ...more rather than less snow and storm political orientation... Rare bird in here, I know -

Re James' unchecked unabashed ebullient reaction to the NAM... you need to get that trough rotated around at a minimum into a neutral orientation, then we'll talk. This system doesn't have the dynamics to do it positively tilted, so it's going to need to better DPVA to get the lift required... This run is trying desperately but - I wouldn't sweat it personally. I'm putting my chips in a Euro 70/ukmet 30 blend and letting the dice roll ... The entire American cluster owns the burden of proof as it's not really as dependable as the Euro at < D4 leads. Plus, if anything the trend vector has been pointing toward the Euro in this case.

If I go look at that solution and it turns out to be the same old putrid p.o.s. not a big deal head scratcher as to why anyone thinks it is otherwise nonsense again, you are permanently blocked