Typhoon Tip

Op ed ( not holier than thou): I disagree the problem with winters has been the NAO domain ... but, to each his own until forcibly proven otherwise in most cases - lol... Oh, it's not helping - sure. There are no one-size-fits-all mechanisms driving weather pattern modes - duh. But, as I have outlined ...to the point of ad nauseam ... there are a larger evidenced systemic morphologies ( I am not averiring some personal opine on the matter! ) taking place in the mass balancing at a hemispheric scope and scale - not sure what the dimensional cost is, but it appears they are order of magnitude ( possibly..) more influential. These are planetary scope and scale, actually. And [ blah blah blah ad nauseam here ] reasons, it is causing balanced, geostrophic wind saturation and that is disrupting the previous, underpinning pattern mechanisms ( most born between 1900 and 1990 are more accustomed to) - this is manifesting in numerous ways from Asia and the Indian Ocean to the Americas all the way around the NH winters. The NAO ... ? yeah, it's part of that dizzying array of moving components... but less. Nah, the primary loading pattern for cold into N/A is the EPO and always has been. As a separate concern: The last 20 years has gradually observed a baseline velocity increase ( wind flux mid and upper troposphere), which is stretching/stressing R-wave distribution ... At some point, stretch enough ... the system my "click" into the next 'gearbox cog orientation' ... But, sparing adding that hypothetical popsicle headache to an already mind numbing thumb-swiping missive... the NAO "back drills" as loading pattern, ....as an anomalous scenario from blocking, which if one spatially imagines... blocking gets harder to do with increased wind fields.. as a gestalt if not discretely provable notion. yoo hoo ... We have blocking times, but they are over geographical regions where blocking is more robustly constructed(able) when the surrounding medium is doing so, and the NAO is not one of those. Like, Siberia to the Alaskan sector. ( Just at an orbital conceptual level, by logical convention and definition of literature combined, 'anomalous' means rarified, and rarified means ... not the primary for the purposes of present context. ) And that has to be so; conceptually proven objectively and scientifically from empirical data and math ... retrograde behavior is less common than the west to east motion of jets fields and their embedded wave mechanics propagate within the general eddy momentum. It almost seems silly when really, spiritually coming to grips with that truism, how bought into the NAO 'holy grail' the 1990s popularization seemed to become. The NAO has a contribution in modulating the temperature and to some degree precipitation distribution, which is to say ... > than no effect. Not sure that justifies - assuming this op ed has any truth to it - blaming winters on that factor. ...obviously, there is a glibness about the 'bus stop' internet social media - there's that too... Even Heather Archembault's famous statistical study cited that the PNA had greater statistical confidence interval as a precipitation modulator over eastern N/A... The NAOs were perhaps conditionally correlative... I believe her conclusion offered hypothesis that it was the transition of modes in the NAO. But, I personally think even that is misleading as a leading cause, because those modality (modal inflection points) are driven by the PNA when time-lags are applied; as R-wave commands downstream, the terminating wave signatures will transitively distribute height nodes into that region ( NAO domain space) ..where/whence there ... underlying geophysical feedback augments ridge structures over that region of eastern Canada's eastern archipelago and Greenlands 5000 feet of elevation and so forth, when the transitive tendency arrives. Because this feedback materializes in situ, that casts a kind of immediate impression that the ridge node up there must have formulated in isolation ...but it may not really be the case. The NAO became over-assessing IMHO - old habits and traditions die violently and vitriolically ...

Agree on the "early" vibe- Although, I must also add that every year it seems that I tend to get fooled by the 'early' assessment, and then it turns out what I'm really seeing ...or remembering rather, is that a particular tree or grove of them may be earlier, while the general setting across the country side ends up being about average by mid October. I do think that year to year, the triggering may be differential within the biomass ...but that means there are regions that could even be late, such that the whole forestry ends up the same? Not sure, but around town here, definitely there are even healthier maples showing significant reds and saffron - it's like an abstract artist loaded up a wet brush with that area of the color wheel, and flicked it at a landscape canvassed by broccoli. My 'General Sherman,' a beautiful 250 to 300 year old maple at the corner of my property, with it's 100 foot spanned canopy and 60 some feet of heights, has always maxed color in the 2nd week of October, and it is almost half dyed already - hard to imagine how it is going to stall for two and half weeks to meet with that particular historical e.t.a.; it seems an early max is imminent. But why...? One thing I am noticing of this 'early' character is that there are more reds than I remember, both in the general...and around town. I'm wondering - hypothetically - if we have some compounding factors enticing the early evacuation of certain pigments... like, green going early, and leaving the red behind ...when perhaps the red tends to leave ( normally) more in the same temporal window.. like in general... Obviously not ubiquitous among all species and even down to the tree individual, depending on the climate that year leading in the latter sense. But year to year... This year we have [ maybe ] two distinct ... plausible triggers that are instructing some early releasing of green: Solar minimum and smoke... I noticed that we were starting to just barely tinge prior to the smoke sky, onset from two weeks ago, Then, we pall-blued the heavens over in this unhealthy weary light, and even dimmed down to orb sun on several consecutive days... When all this red pops immediately coming out of that. Now, I tend to be a sucker for cause-and-effect... particularly, as a patterning...and when two unusual events pass through a given natural domain space, I tend to suspect a causality circuitry exists there... Who knows...

.... well they ain't using 'TP' that's for sure with all the shit that's postin' outta dem dar hills ...

Decent temp recovery under way.., 39 last night at 9:30 ... now 54 impressive 76 tomorrow might already seem quite warm after 3 solid days of unrelenting cool wind by day and sparkling car tops at dawns

that's an interesting observation, 'red' ..I was noticing that here, too. It's like biasing in that area of the color-wheel. I was muse/speculating that perhaps the smoked filtration of light might have triggered the evac of the pigmentation associated with green, but the red was left behind..and that might be why? But I'm not/no specialist in the subject matter. Normal years have red anyway, but I'm seeing more red than normal .. at an earlier time -

Funny thing is that was an accidental post... I was going to caption that with, " ...why is it that whenever we see this sort of set up, there is no TC... but when there is a flurry of them stressing NHC, we have this coch-block pattern" But when I came back from my run I realized I must've fat fingered it in before I could type that well deserved and real fact that is totally more true than mere sarcasm

In the meantime ... I'm looking forward to these mid 70s days tomorrow and the next... I also gotta say that trees around town here are tingeing saffron and reds ... not just unhealthy subjects either, all of them... accept the oaks of course... But even some of those have purple in there among the grove complexion a little. This is ahead of schedule by two weeks here. I don't know if this cool snap is having anything to do with that; I'm inclined to say no ..in so far as a triggering mechanism - it seems this was underway prior last week. But I am also wondering if the smoke/UV dimming that took place since early month may also have played a role in triggering ? I'm not sure how pervasive this is in the foliage all over the Lakes, OV and NE regions is, either - it just seems around Middlesex Co, we have healthy maple species en masse showing some personality a bit ahead of schedule here - The 250 year old maple on my property line that I lovingly refer to as 'general sherman' is turning and the sucker usually peaks about Oct 10 ...not sure how it's getting 3 weeks without beating that date but we'll see -

What ... 'Kevin's cannot happisms' or coastals -

I've often thought that altho that early Dec snow last year was within the Met designation of winter that doesn't mean much ... It still to me appeared to really be a part of an autumnal hemispheric setting ...and fitting in with the recent decadal propensity to fold the heights over western Canada ... which tends(ing) to deliver early cold snaps ..etc... A factor that may also be hidden because it is couched in modestly > normal monthly means ..Or not. Octobers and Novembers may actually have been closer to normal or approaching so ...while hosting nested cold incursions that plumb departures some -6 to -12, ....enough so to even snow or be supportive of snow, but rolling out in comparatively briefer time spans - such that by arithmetic weighting, the +3, 10 days intervening "hides" them in the averages..etc.. I feel pretty strongly about that early Dec event as being part of that. I was in careful observance of the southern tier height compression around the time and moving past ( the weeks) of that event; the hypsometric gradient grew steeper over the ambience, as well .. the isohypsotic counts rose by 3 to 6 gradient lines by mid month, and never 'decompressed' until July frankly... kidding a little. Within 10 days or so after that early month slow roller quasi-cut-off last December, that spit out a coastal wave for 9-12", then came through with a mid level snowball to double-dutch us for a total 30 hour stint ... things changed. Commercial air traffic began reporting the unusual ground-based velocities along .. concurrent with the arrival of that apparent gradient compression. And whether it can be proven geo-physically connected or not, it's hard to ignore that the winter sucked as those observations came about. It went on to be a distracted mess of busted ravioli systems and sheared out messes...Or at best, modeling bombs that were always correcting 1000(s) of KM(s) east of original projections when at D7-10 leads ( when/where ensemble signals first began to emerge; the Euro always had Del Marva genesis' ending up flatter or up near NF by D3...etc.. something like that..). I think it is important, but the the thematic arc of winters the past 10 years ( and really ... vestiges of this going back to 2000 ) seems to be more than ephemeral ... showing enough sample size to move the climate in insidious ways. For example, we think of climate in terms of average temperature, #'s of sunny vs cloudy days, precipitation ...wind. Aspect the really are more 'sensible' ... But, any geophysical variable that is an emergent result of the atmospheric machinery can be metrically analyzed. Like, 'geopotential gradient' - there probably is normalized/averaged climate values of these lesser known/esoteric aspects, but it is in that obscure realm where climate changes seems to be more colorful. But, if the 'theme' of winters is changing, and seeing these physical observations to back that .. probably should ignore the possibility that whatever forcing is causing that climate modality, might also do the same for this winters hemisphere.

Wednesday looks like a absolute refined gem - d-slop dandy with low RH and 25 C 2-meter ... the question is, how smoky

Suppositionally - yes.. The NAO could be "transitively" influenced... What we know: The HC is expanded(ing) ... as I've outlined before and it can be found here: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ... note, this publication may be getting onwards to a couple years old, so it may be mirrored and or sophisticated further by follow-up efforts that I am less than aware of - will leave that to the reader research using the "stellar trustworth WWW" that the "intrinsically ethical nature of man" hasn't by any means corrupted -ha.. Anyway, right off the bat .. conceptually, 'what in hades does the Hadley Cell have to do with the NAO, considering the latter domain space is N of the Hadley..?' Directly? nothing... Indirectly? perhaps - The expanding HC causing higher winds in the westerlies ( because there's more in situ gradients between 30N and 70 N in the general hemisphere...), would tend to augment the rest state PNAP structure... Which returning to 101 Synoptics, that features a modest ridge over the terrain of western N/A and a coupled, modest trough down stream over the east. This has to do with forced topographical ascent, turning right by Coriolis ... .and that causes UVM and ridging to evolve... Naturally, if we enhance the westerlies...it is conceptually acceptable to assume these orientations would also be augmented. So, we have a slightly exaggerated ridge it the west, ... coupling wave/balancing we have increasing trough tendencies in the east... Down streams of troughs... we have the transitive higher height response ... and that ignites the -NAO ... But this gets complicated/washed out, as the season grows deeper into winter, and said gradient gets rather extreme... It's like we sinusoidally go the other way with so much maelstrom and high velocity, the balancing locks into the next sign - viola! +PNA winters... with very high velocities situates the NAO blocks east or zonal... tending to reduce the west-based variant. Not all the time... no. but as a base line...? mmm

What a pos Teddy looks like this hour tho - eesh It's either formulated a 100 mi eye ...or, it's gulp in shit ton of dry air now rattling around inside and gutting out... World's biggest turd in the world's biggest punch bowl during the world's worst most active season on record - weird season

That's such a good way to put that, bold. You know, another Met friend ..completely unaffiliated from this site, he and I have commiserated how we both formulated that exact same impression - and it started that season, too. Funny. Like, it's universal impression. I almost venture that as astounding as any interval has been since? nothing had that ..Oooh so close but no cigar coveted immovable 50" er miss vibe about it. There seems to be almost like a 36" @ < 500' elevation, and 45" less that 1200' elevation hard stop where come hell or high water, we either warmth or rain to beat it down ...or even cobwebs that can't stack - 2015 frustrates me and don't get me started on that seasons systemic lies. Lol. Anyway, yeah the pack seems to hit at that ceiling then something always gets thrown at it. Always something to f-it up ... Whenever we static the 32" ... I go into yellow alert mode and start combing teleconnectors for paranoid 'okay how's this gonna f-up this time' "Of all the saddest words ever said of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these, what might have been"

My favorite winter ensued... -although I was not a big fan of the thaw from Hades that late January early ('96) ... holy hell was that savage pack annihilation. I went from 35" in the level to essentially bear ground with ice puddle patches by the time the cold set back in early February... I think the rest of the way we managed to stack up 18" a couple of times but settled those pack depths down ... Never again to see the big yard-stick milestone depth that season, but we kept getting snows late adding to the seasonal till too - couple 6"-10" blue deals in April. Anyway, I remember October of 1995 differently then a torch the first 3 weeks tho ( by the way, the first 3-"4" weeks of October is just the whole month - lol ...) Anyway, I remember it as just the first 10-15 days being mild up at UML in the Merrimack Valley...so it may be gradation/latitude thing. I do remember it being latitude dependent when the first snow and sleety system came through around the 9th of Novie... That was the last time we saw bear ground until said thaw. But NYC was in the 60s when we were flipping between snow and sleet up there at school on the first system. Then HFD was snow and sleet on the next one, and we were all snow. It was like winter itself was backing down the coast like a BD... heh It was like where ever you were, once the snow line got to you ... you didn't go back, 'spreading south and southwest' like glacier tendency in the air. I remember around the 20th of October we started getting heavier frost mornings ... Yellow maple leaves were being cold pinched in calm dead fall morning cold around campus ... And the shade side of the Pawtucket water conduit, 50 feet high granite blocks that water trickles through due to hydrologic pressure ... the rivulets were freezing during those last 10 days of the month, and I remember seeing the ice still there in the shade 4pm just before sunset ...and commenting to self that it was interesting that ice was not melting ... It was steps in a process of never looking back. Yeah...November was mid winter from the Lowell to Acton arc of Middlesex, period. And December? Holy shit that was the coldest Dec I recall - I remember around the 10th of the month, a buddy and I were clamoring over snow piles negotiating sidewalks outside of pubs around downtown Boston, and a bank sign blinked 10 F ... The snow was squealing under foot falls and we were like Jesus, get us the f out of this cold! I remember thinking around Dec 21 how we'd already had a winter's worth of winter and autumn just ended. I've never seen a autumn relay into winter like that since... 2008 ... maybe close, with that 40" Dec but Novie was mild - I think...

Part of all that ? ... we need bigger sample sizes...sure. However, this is a bit different than a 'black-box' series of values coming out of a system we no nothing about, and then having to assess the significance of a series of aberrant values. We see other systemic morphology lending to causality. Such as speedier flows in increased hypsometric gradients between 35 N and 70 N in winters... As well, taller hypsometric ridge altitudes in summer... These are happening concurrently more so, with the advent or increasing frequency of snow in early and late. That sort of begs a causal link there, ...certainly suspicion. It's also counter-intuitive because higher heights should mean warmth...but, the increased wind is causing the flow to tip S over Canada early and late... due to the continental atmospheric bulge being enhanced in the rest-state PNAP. ... Anyway, it helps reduce the uncertainty of randomness when a driving mechanism can be identified - even though there's still supposition and theoretical debate there too. ugh - I just mean there's really no such thing as seasons ... not really. These are human conventions ... it's what we do as engineering, math-solving and language orchestrating artistic species, we fancifully create 'boundaries' and domain spaces out of reality. But reality is really more like cloud technology in a sense...

It'd be one way ..but unfortunately, not really what I was after Lol. I sense the focus there is because the word snow was inciting ? I wouldn't go so far as to characterize "...winters in the North will just be getting longer" Firstly the plural use of 'winters' sort of suggest a 'permanency' ... I am not intending to extend winter. You were responding to a paraphrased version of an early post, which lacking context may have sounded a certain way perhaps. Just making empirically based discussion points: We have in fact observed more snow(snow supportive atmospheres) in Octobers and April ( even May ) over the last 20 years, than %-relatively combining the previous 50 years. I was discussing climate - I'm not sure how one would logically tool an interpretation of 'winter as a season.' Having said that... I don't think winter as a season is being necessarily extended, no, now that the idea is floated - What I originally intimated: the transition seasons are being marred by cold interruptions that are offsetting an otherwise warmer than normal trend, but provided a canvas for plausible-why that is taking place. But these cold offset by virtue of happening in an above normal rest state, are making for very dramatic variances. I am not sure in an objective sense that means "winter" per se, as much as just means a new transition season behavior that's emerged in the last 20 .. particularly 10 years. The philosophy over human conventionality vs what is real in Nature comes to mind. As the ends of season blur those temporal conventions by patterns and sensible impact... it exposes the faux conceit in calling summer summer and fall, fall, and winter winter...when the boundaries are often seamless... I think of 70F Octobers with two packing pellet virga cu cold snaps fitted squarely into a categorization of no category - Lol...

Lol - nah don't fret ... 2015's can still happen - just not so predictable... I mean that whole ordeal back during that fateful February was actually even intraseasonal in temporal scale .. The whole season wasn't really terribly below normal in temperature... And as far as snow, I remember remarking in snark back then that for a lot of cases, if it did not snow a single flake for three consecutive years immediately going forward ( which wasn't the case, just sayn' ), than those locales would in fact only be normal snow for the 5 year climate sojourn - Anyway, ... I'm just saying in would not surprise me to see similar playout... some odd cold snaps early and late, with plausible snow chances ...with an extended period or something related to gradient/velocity surpluses doing weird things in DJF proper .. It would be keeping with both trend over recent years/decades, as well as actually fit other empirical based reasons - But we'll see... It's going to get colder as the daylight gets dimmer -

So based on all that ... If one were to forecast normal temperatures for October and November, ...obscuring and hiding the fact that there were a couple of cold and snow anomalies ... just because interceding air masses were dry and hot, ... Wouldn't shock me. Yup...totally "normal" October and November - just look at the 2 month totals/N-terms - nothing to see here. Nothing out of the ordinary... Hiding climate change ...Then, followed by a velocity stolen winter that claws and scrapes to snow averages in between ice events that fall short of warning by virtue of the fact that they can't hang around longer than 6 hours before their structures are smeared and sheared and blown open halfway to England ...Then, we even exceed "seasonal" totals because of May blue bomb on Memorial day in an apr/may combo that is -6 from norms due to the same folding afflicting springs - Obviously there's some sarcasm to this ..but... early and late cool snaps with snow out of calendar climo with an iffy mid winter gradient problem .... too repeating across both NINO/NINA/NADA ... and varying solar cycles... for me to assume these latter as primary in seasonal outlook philosophy. The empirical results can be explained by early hypothesis/relationship to changes that are already being actually measured and papered re climate change ...

Starting to see the 'continental folding' effect beginning to emerge more and more in guidance. What I mean by that is a large, hemispheric -scale Kelvin-Hem. wave effect from huge velocities ripping the mid latitudes and folding over the ridge over western N/A. In fact, this early cool pop over the next 36 to 48 hours is really part of that, and in my mind is integral in the same propensity ... increasingly more commonplace since ~ 2000 ... lending snow in Octobers and Novembers with increasing frequency. These are exaggerated shots across the bow ladies and girls - I suspect this is contributing to why we are observing unusually large temperature gradients either side of the mean polar jet, as was in part recently demoed over the eastern front range of the Rockies, in part exaggerated/augmented by elevation/mountain upslope effects. With +16 to even +20 C synoptic -scaled 850 mb thermal ridges ridging within 200 km of -2 to +3 C early season anomalies... Doing so at all is not hugely unusual; doing so relative to September climate is definitely not normal. The Denver 90s to 30s in 24 hours in snow, to these present modeled cinemas of 20C ( GGEM ) over Michigan not three or four days after being -2 C, over that area... these are fantastic roll-out events.. But, I don't think it is just this season. I think these sort of occurrences are part of the morphology of the large circulation eddy associated with climate change. Fast velocity has plagued even the summers - just not as readily observable ( more subtle ..). But all this is/has unusually registered/able R-wave coherency ... and that has been happening in summers since really the super Nino of 1998 ... however much or less notwithstanding. This coherency has lent to early season, western North America exaggerated +PNAP flow constructs, which in turn is why we have seen a frequency up tick in early cold intrusion events in Octobers and Novembers. This is at the transition where just the hemisphere is cooling ... yet several weeks prior to when the deeper gradient saturation of winter settles/compresses the flow; which triggers the "real" pattern emergence for that winter. But, I have noticed that we have had a lot of +PNAP high velocity pattern biases. We dont' seem to really deviate much from that - remove the 2015 anomaly from the data set since 2010, most of these winters in a fairly "smoothed" objective sense have not really deviated their patterns too tremendously obvious. It would all account for opportunity windows for strange cold incursions in the autumns, that would in fact roll out and swing wildly back mild ... due the expanded HC. "Packing pellet" virga CU October cold snaps followed by 70s has happened too often since 20 spanning 20 years...some half the seasons. It's anecdotal to add the following, but ...in the previous 30 years of my life, if I saw a grapple pellet in October ( May for the matter) it was arresting. Now ... it's like when is it not. That's enough to trigger acclimation and expectancy .. usually, that's climate impacting at a personal level when that more human response to change can be noted.

For the last 3 day's-worth ...some 12 cycles of the models, et al they have slammed the tropical season shut after this Teddy... fitting that in terms of ACE Teddy symbolizes a finale: it is the single ( probably ..) biggest contributor to the seasonal aggregate, and .. haha, that it would stay safely, unappealingly out of fun's way ...even bulging west upon exit track as a last hesitation mockery-smack in the face. It's like the scene in "Airplane," when Leslie Neilson's character smacks the woman a couple of times ..."Calm down! Get ahold of yourself!" Then the attendant intercedes, "Captain, your needed in the cabain. "All right -" but as he steps away ... he hesitates, looks over his shoulder, and steps back in as though 'upon second thought' - one last smack.... Then he finally steps away. Pretty funny scene - That's Teddy... lol - Yeah who knows if that abrupt season termination is legit. The models seem to do above median performance in predicting this recent 2-week flurry of Invests and other waste of timers for lusty dystopian geese, so perhaps they'll perform well to shut it down. The Euro, GFS, and GGEM operational versions all starkly end up in a dearth of features out there beyond Teddy over the MDR... It is nearing October so - One thing that occurs to me ... Scott had mentioned that although there is above normal actual entities to observe, the ACE has been normal for TC seasonality. We can thank the odd propensity to sputter everything... Teddy took days and days to gain 20 kts this and pressure that... and whatever's causing that belated realization has afflicted everything - as far as I can recall. Even Laura spent time fighting and languishing. Even over the last 24 hours since it finally gained it's merit badge ... heh.. Teddy hasn't looked convincing with ragged cloud tagged eye wall features...and weird curved bands that occasionally slice inward around the ring of deep convection from time to time. Oh, it's a cat 4 sure... you could just feel the writer of the upgrade discussion 'finally!' But, the last five years? That thing woulda been a Cat 6 and through eyewall replacements, with satellite TD rotating outer arms so far removed from the central pressure well that they've manage to formulate ephemeral cyclonic nodes... Kind of like artistic analog of the captured Magellanic Cloud dwarfs captured by the Milky Way. This season? There isn't enough "Dark Matter" - Anyway, it is interesting that despite the occurrence counts the ACE is normal... -ish ... I would extend that characterization of the normalcy ( so far...) to also having the occurrence-density timed on top of the climate bell-curve of activity/normal as well, mid September range on the calendar.

There it is ... the right of passage where it inevitably cast the illusion of moving SW spanning 1:30 hrs worth of looping

Still looks like an impressive frosting signal for early Sunday AM -

Ha! no way - I am much more suited for the "art" of speculation... Not just weather, but trying to figure out what in the f motivates the 3-loon quota of 'intelligentsia' that guides this crazy engagement offers a deep, deep well of plausibility doesn't it - hahaha.

Nah trust me ... just another internet voice, granted - but fwiw it is a general population/human condition thing; you are not that uniquely wired in that regard