Typhoon Tip

oh crap - I thought I started this thread already with a write up about October .. but I just realized I neglected to actually type October in the title of that - lol..... oops

Bingo! Yeah they're a gov org - they can't make supposition? Not without huge problems - lol... So, yup ... I don't mind the 'leading prose' ( if you will ) so much, if at least it can be vetted through a modicum of analytics... which this does! Both apriori but education combined. Anyway, for the general readers, I love their ( apparently negative rendering when copy and pasting) image acuity and simplicity as reference ... Keeping in mind, I think these base-line states are being disrupted by the expansion and velocity stuff as we are describing... So, perturbing and adulterating these looks ... yup. how? million dollar question. I strongly suggest that the straight up ENSO statistical correlations are in trouble... We've had modes on either side of warm(cool) in the last 12 years with apparently limited impacts around global notorious climate zones .. but here is the base... Know what is funny about this... It's odd to me that our best snow winter comes at like +.2 NINO regimes ? when this image smacks as though -1 would be the big nuts... Interesting -

That is the SST correlation with the wind pattern stuff.. https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ... corroborates as well, and discusses the atmospheric modal changes that have occurred in the past 30 years as part of this total response in the global hemisphere - Hadley Cell is an atmospheric eddy that girdles the tropics and subtropics around the planet...featuring ( in the means...) rising air near the Equatorial Monsoonal Trough zones and augmented by MJO ... etc..., polarward mass flux from convection deposition in the high troposphere, and downward ambient flow tendencies in the midst of subtropical ridges ... On the polar side of these ridges, the flow terminates to the westerlies band, the demarcates the interface between the Hadley Cell and the Ferrel Cell, which is the polar cell that orients at higher latitudes ( lower if talking about the southern H. ). The HC expansion is noted in the atmosphere - Refer to chapter 5: 5.2.1 Width of the Tropics and Global Circulation Not to laboriously reiterate but...the expansion of the HC is butting up against the lower Ferral Cell where cold hypsometric layout and compression resulting, is causing enhancing wind velocities as the balanced geostrophic response. In fairness, the article/content may not describe this latter wind response outright - and I have been clear this is my own hypothesis, but it is a damn good one! Regardless of refutation as to cause, the previous "stable" climate R-wave climatology is in peril during colder seasons, because wind speed in the wave mechanics is physically instructive regardless and we have had velocity and gradient saturation ...regardless of ENSO and other factors - it's become a base-state. ... Couple of plausible examples of altered R-wave climate: NAO blocking rarefied because blocking constructs are inherently more difficult to maintain in excessive X coordinate wind. Also, tending to fold the top latitude flow over mid latitudes, earlier in Autumn exaggerating early cold loading into Canada, as well as upon exit in springs. So, if we negate this shit in our seasonal outlooks and/or even modeling -based weekly forecast visions... good luck .

Would anyone happen to know where CDC is hiding the PNA/NAO/WPO/EPO product suite ? You go here, "https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ " And you are greeted with this, " Note: As of 23 September 2020, the Global Ensemble Forecast System has been upgraded to a much improved version 12, and this page is now obsolete. New reforecasts are available via Amazon Web Services for free download, at https://noaa-gefs-retrospective.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html, and you are directed there for data access...." But that link is an endless maze that frankly doesn't appear as though any engineering effort really had user accessibility in mind.. Am I simply overlooking - or... I am toying with the notion - either way - that this is just another example of bleed-over incompetence from the cultural influence of a kakistocratic government apparatus that swept in upon the election 2016, which began stripping institutions of wherewithal. Consequently, there are less professionals there that either care, or, know what the f* they are doing -

Drought was never an issue around New England

Smoke + solar min = early flush ?

The 9 years I've lived at this location... this is typically the complexion of this tree on or around October 10... reaching pinnacle expression around the 13th or 14th of the month... This year is an early anomaly by 2.5 weeks... That's "pretty" substantial -

It's an excessively charge and sensitive flow due to higher energy/potential available.. Early season trough expression is imposing an enormous gradient between the polarward side of the polar jet, dipping to almost the OV as it is... and the lingering summer tapestry that is roughtly SFO -HAT remaining... Small perturbations that tap into that latent potential may be blowing out of proportion..that pressure depiction there appears constructed out of that as it is unnaturally discrete relative to the surrounding integration - it is actually does sort of look a little like a captured tropical entity without actually having had one being captured - that's usually some sort of a-bomb feedback BS in the model(s) when we see this -

This is for early awareness only, for enthusiasts and on-going interests therein. Nothing specific ( yet ) to hone in on, but the canvas is certainly there in my opinion .. and a growing impression/expectation for an early winter-like weather expression. The proceeding is based upon personal environmental awareness and teleconnections, combined. As most are aware, the recent operational model types have unanimously all been signaling an anomalous +amplification mode of the Perennial North-American Pattern heading into the mid range, and extending beyond .. well into week-2 .. for many day's worth of runs. As a foreshadowing suggestion, I don't see why an exaggerated early season PNAP pattern, oscillating between neutral to above normal - won't persist very deep into next month, as prescribed the bevy of teleconnectors/tools therein. In and of itself, western ridges and eastern troughs happen at this time of year and they do not have to necessarily signal much. But we have more to consider. ( As hypothetical side note ... where/whence the solar clock has all but extinguished the sun's ability to offset early season cold loading into the N. American continent ..., that normalcy is happening through an ongoing smoke/particulate aerosol surplus - prooobably that has alleviated and/or dispersion extinguished in recent weeks... But, how much so, and ..I also want to point out that the coupled upstream nature of this flow orchestrates yet another period of ginormous heights over the western U.S. - that anomaly will bring a resurgency ( to some "degree" lol ) of enough dessocating heat .. working on a landscape still reeling from the earlier amplitude of similar thematic arc which brought 101 to San Francisco while it was snowing in Denver! And unfortunately more fires that will add to this dimming study. Particularly above the 50th parallel, the governing pattern combined with seasonal solar loss, combined with cooling insolation sheltering.. may play an interesting feedback role in augmenting the air that does pool into climate loading region(s). It may be a subtle ...almost too subtle of a factor to readily quantify, but the "synergy" of finding the cooler solution at least excuse might show up in the gestalts ) We have seen this type of pattern evolve more frequently than not ...since ~ 2000, during autumns. This is the multi-decadal trend, and it is one that is autumnal. I have floated numerous "science-fiction" as well as plausible hypothesis as to why this is occurring - and the foundation for those insights is both apriori, existential...as well as empirically based ( found here in chapter 5 as a primer - https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ... https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/ ) .. So tfwiw .. this year is following right in with this trend-signal. I don't see any reason to offset the assumption that October ( and probably November too - ) will write their chapters similarly with cold incursions that are either interrupting otherwise normal or even slightly above normal temperature departures as intervening. Each whiplash cool back could snow... Part of climate change ( hint hint ) was modeled over the generations of the science, to be hugely variant. Having big temperature oscillations either side of the polar jet in October is too obviously related to that to ignore... Leave it at that. The teleconnectors: ... These are the GEFs-based ones. I find it interesting that recently an increase ( supposedly ) in the capacity of the GEFs for longer range prediction ( and methods therein) were brought on line, and then almost immediately I've observed a rather impressive 'adjustment' toward a colder complexion - one that ...frankly fits the multi-decadal trend. ... I suspect the imm (left) dip in the PNA is probably in the process of correcting less ...how much .. either way, the longer term mass of the members/mean therein suggest the PNA is attempting to maintain a positive bias. There is no MJO modulation of this coherently available at this time - This somewhat reminds me of the early season teleconnector spread that lay in wait ahead of the October 2011 snows that took place that month. Not sure if folks recall or not...that was not so much of a fluke relative to pattern - it was only a fluke relative to climatology. Fact of the matter is, the EPO/PNA-NAO arc all were aligning a cold pattern week(s) prior to the big event, and... there was a sneaking appetizer snow fall and puffy wet aggregate event that car-topped a chilly afternoon and early evening a week prior. So, the signal was successfully ferretted out of the teleconnector spread ... as the combined weigting of two concurrent cold events in the same period was formulaic and not just weird. I frankly don't see that we are in a different climate mode compared to 9 years ago ( I can't believe that was 9 years - wow ). It seems the unusually fast flow is building early seasons heights over western N/A ...exaggerating early season cold loading potentials and ...eventually Octobers and certainly Novembers, the dim solar insolation combined with that augmented curved flow becomes over bearing and climate suggestions are falling increasingly by the wayside do to the weight of those concurrent factors. Here we see a teleconnector spread that is set in ( whether by upgraded GEFs or not...), and given decadal trends combined with other environmental factors perhaps more hypothetic.. the table sets in my mind to snow in October yet again. Hard to imagine perhaps as I type this in 83 F heat ... but, this warm spell now and over the nearer time ranges was also well handled by the models, too.

Snow in October

It's hard to imagine ...given that trough's scale of anomaly and apparent persistence as suggested by modeling ...how any region from the SE to the NE U.S. is going escape raining episodes after ... Day 4 or so... Thing is, that trough still is not in the near term..it's still mid range...

This always happens on Oct 10 ..huh, ...I mean...with that salmon mix zone? That's like riding a winter cyclone up a cold wall, mid winter form ... not just some dynamical core of cat pawing there Here's the problem I'm having with this... I think it is more plausible now, than it was in 1980 [ enter climate modulation/causality here ] For one, ... decadal trend: forget geophysical reasoning/mechanism, it's snowing in Octobers some 1/3 to 1/2 of the years since 2000; prior to then? ... just existentially off the top of the head ...maybe 3 times in 30 years. Something is promoting these early season "folded synoptic" flow constructs - which is just personal labeling of a phenomenon to arc the flow in western Canada and concomitantly plumbing heights S over the eastern continent - as an autumnal affliction.

No ... I was responding to a specific persons... Otherwise? readers that expect to be served instant fun and pleasures without thinking as a way of life -

Couple aspects about SAR CoV-2 that I always think about ... One is, this business of a vaccine - .. hopefully the ballast of the population understands: A vaccine does not cure COVID-19? It only protects individuals, but ... that goes like 'a person is smart, but people are stupid.' It will prevent individuals from getting a particular strain of SAR CoV-2 ( mutation(s)), but society will always have those. The H1N1 outbreak that seemed to "origin" in the spring of 1918 (Kansas), is still with us today. The main arc of the 'outbreak' and uncontrolled horror of that was wrought did so spring of 1918 through to autumn of 1919 ( although I have read that by April of 1919 that was really when new cases become more a sporadic occurrence in smaller enclaves of cities). We are at month 9 give or take a couple of months on the front side, of COVID-19'r wrath - there's evidence like we've all heard that some ancestor of this thing may predate last mid-winter but that's ongoing ... Point being, we are roughly only half the the H1N1 pathogenic gestation. We have advantages that may shorten that time range - but there is a tendency for impatience ... which is utterly rooted faux expectation? What are people thinking there? But that "Spanish Flu" as it became to be known is the ancestral root of these Influenza A and B strains that modern tech perennially still has to modulate new vaccines for every year. It appears likely COVID-19 is destined to the same "population management," but not completely eradicated - it's pathogenicity isn't controllable in that sense. Which by virtue of having some form of control at all, I guess steps it down from crisis mode.. and people can stop wearing masks to run out to the store for f'um eggs. Two is the sociological aspect... Society did return to the previous dynamic ( norm) after the Spanish Flu. I keep hearing this 'dystopian vision' that sounds like headline incendiary rhetoric to me ... that things will 'never be the same same same same...' Bullshit! Since we all know that history is both a reasonable guide, and ... Humanity more typically than not ... will repeat it ... that does not tempt one to envision a future that is inherently responsible to any background risks left smoldering in the aftermath future off this thing. NO way.. when 'threat' falls below criticality ... humans lower fear through time, exposure and familiarity. They'll get back to living lives, at earliest INconvenience to do so... The Meh effect kicks in, almost out of necessity... - and 'managed' public health concerns fit into this backseating tendency. I mean that should just be expected - imho - quite intuitively and apriori -based. So, I am sure I share in this 'worldly' opinion like most with any modicum of introspection ... that are not immediately in"FLU"enced by either CNN or Fox News' wordsmithing headline demagoguery for profit.. that COVID-19 is always going to be there .. but a combination of a working vaccine and familiarity reduces fear and through that pathway society will do exacty what it's done before and 10 years from now this will have been absorbed into the annuls of other failed world-ending lore. I just personally cannot wait to take the leverage out of mass -media's profit zapping

You know .. when I first opined that it was droll-intended.. sort of tongue-in-cheek cynical take on things. But, upon further thought, that whole rah-rah- championing the heroes of yester-millenia, doesn't really (ethically) excuse anything - it is in fact, irrelevantly applied whenever the topic comes up in the context of "yeah, BUT" - SO what?. That whole trope portrait of ancient 40 year-old leathery faced scurvy ridden ... walking both ways ...up hill in blizzards bear-foot while sucking on bacon jerked tobacco vitamins, because they didn't know any better than to us the daily leeches on their hemorrhoids .. What does that have to with people sucking off the entitlement teet of industrial affluence? Nah, it comes off as an auto- response, where/when tactically... one hears some semblance of truth in there ... (which yar, they didn't have our advantages - okay) so they suspend any objective evaluation and assume it's okay to continue engaging in whatever...? Aside from typology, such urban legends usually don't hold up when intellectual weighting of facts or even 'realistic worldly' impressions of history are comparatively involved. Seems tactically morally evasive ... I mean culture is not all bad, no. But frankly, the perils facing humanity ... from environmental horrors looming, to overpopulation giving rise to Pandemics and back... we can't even say these plights are self-chosen, because that central point of 'entitlement' conditions people right passed such introspection or self-restraint. There's no connection ... it's just 'where's my ranch-dressing hose.' We are wandering proverbially sightless through a wonder of extravagant stimuli, programmed to an assumption of delivery like helpless chicks in a nest with their mouths agape waiting for their next tasty meal .. cluelessly salivating. I'm no sociologist .. .but, we take an immensely powerful engine of ingenuity, the collective engineering mind of Humanity ( which in a philosophical sense..is proving to be one of the greatest geological events in planetary history), apply it to a natural setting submerged in volatile and reactive chemistries, and with all that potential ... out pops hero educators struggling to make ends meet, and Wall Street, demagogue presidents, and would it even shock if future historians uncover ... cures for ailments that were kept under wraps because large Pharma would go out of business if managed care no longer required cyclical drug application... List goes on - Not saying that is Jerry or singling out any one or group as doing that... but western culturally rooted modernity's ongoing, teeming interaction ends up painting a distasteful gestalt from a distance.. And, that counterpoint oft employed to justify it .. it is a fallacy at water coolers, parking lots outside of churches, and talk show hosting - it's a culturally evasive tactic to justify a lot of shit. Firstly, that was not true everywhere - no. There were people living into their 90's... three centuries ago. It's a matter of having more of them now, then back then.. yes - And it wouldn't really matter so much ...it really wouldn't. Like I opined in that cynical missive up there ... all 'morality' and 'virtuosity,' these are just human perception constructs.. Sometimes we have to remind ourselves, there are no Natural Laws - like E=MC2, or PV=NRT, or genetic theory..etc..etc - that describe the framework of what we think of as right, wrong, and the value of money. We get caught up in them as having some sort of particular relevancy to the natural order of the cosmos but: Remove humanity, and they do not exist; remove humanity, the former list of physical machinery will always exist. Which should be the bible ? They are infinitely subjective, self-perpetuating illusions that are in part instinctual, in part learned, in a species that has cooperative, socially-oriented dependency built right into their DNA. It's a fascinating philosophical sort of quandary .. because, one can argue completely correctly: that any contrivance of man IS a part of the cosmos too -

It took "me" awhile I know these autocorrects sometimes assume we are dipshit 14-year olds loitering in Mall food courts and insist on running back along sentences to pattern match dipshit speak

I think high altitude smoke assisted this

No one asked .. but I've been wondering if that D5-10 trough might end up more of a Bahama blue pattern when no one was expecting... Particularly because the ridge signal in the west in unusually potent, and I'm wondering if the trough doesn't end up stalling for a bit more W of the mountains .. .setting the state for S conveyor deal - it's not far from that already.

I'm not "arguing" anything - But, that < 40 statement is a falesy ...and so is that relative rare phenomenon that still claims lives today anyway - another false equivalency - I'm not saying life expectancy hasn't benefitted - I was talking about the 'entitlement' and its ugliness. There needs to be some sort of concerted virtuosity involved in the advantages that tech provides ... but no sooner than we evolve this wonder as a species...it's schemed -

And the alternatives and stimuli offered up by technological modernity offer so much more appealing alternatives to feeling accomplished and basing internal spiritual wealth on a pattern of substantive achievement therefrom. wrong: it is an illusion - all of society is based on a vapid participation trophy for that matter. societies of western Industrial derivatives ... man, if it wasn't for the fact that 'morality' and 'virtuality' are also, in themselve, merely human perception-constructs ( that bear no significance to the natural order of reality outside of our own immediate sentience-necessity ...) I'd say all these cultural ilks that derive pleasure and distraction by means of technological orgies are in desperate need of an asteroid impact to force feed them a fragility reminder/humility. The vibe of 'entitlement' that proliferates all interactions at all scope and scales, in the gearing of societies of these convenience-addling ilk ... it's really ugly man. You know, that's high-brow ... 25$ words to describe a petty entitlement that happens once populations get used to electricity and other conveniences- but there really is truth to it..

"Sounds" like he was dancing with the Ozone/stratospheric correlation science - that which relates to sudden stratospheric warming. Smoke is not Ozone - but it does introduce a sub-micron down to molecular-scaled presence in the atmosphere; that may behave similarly. But that's the tip of the iceberg for that science. Slow moving at that. How its presence in the stratosphere relates to the PV ... I wanna say 1980s? But don't quote that... The solar cycle's relationship with that former Ozone circuitry: Solar mins deliver less UV part of the EM spectrum. That reduction lengthens the Ozone residency in the atmosphere - the impetus being ...UV wavelengths break down the Ozone molecular structures. UV cleanses the stratospheric Ozone in a sense.. A blank solar disk summers/autumns (which this is a solar Min summer btw -) preceding those winters, may result in increased Ozone mass ... That is important because Ozone is thermally conductive - So... terminating WAA events from planetary wave dispersal ...both at higher altitudes and latitudes ( that just means warm air arriving ..) infuses/delivers thermal energy into the ambient PV ( polar vortex ), where (then if) there happens to be a conductive efficiency in place, courtesy of a sleeping sun, viola! There is a warming that "suddenly" takes place... It is often accompanied by an immediately leading and/or concurrent U/Z-vector wind anomaly(s), which are probably the result of the arriving planetary wave mechanics showing up as a redistribution in the PV's structure.. But, if this thermal proficiency is not in place, these arriving warm pulses evaporate/disperse radiatively before the medium gas has a chance to absorb kinetically... So, if the mid and high warm pulse of air is present - and this is the part I am less clear on ... - it seems to defy conventional buoyancy arguments, and may begin to "downwell" ... This downward movement of the plume of warm air is crucial in the correlation to the AO ... I have spent hours actually cobbling posts festooned with annotations to demo this in the past... But, I bring it up because this downward motion of the warm plume is often misrepresented and or missed in the conceptual publications I see bandied about the enthusiast and even professional community - be it online, on television ..in science fiction noveling... you name it. People see a warm departure and they pull the SSW card and J. B. used to do this ... making me suspicious over whether he actually knew how the model worked... I can show you plenty of warm blobs in the data set that did not move downward - and guess what...there were no subsequent -AO observed above noise... etc.. But virtually all of those that downwelled, did and the AO made 2 to 3 week excursions negative when the plume descending to approximately the 100 to 200 mb sigma levels. What it does is ... stabilizes the ambient PV and that weakens the storm of it ( so to speak..) breaking down its circulation ... As that occurs, it radially expands S in latitude...and regions above the periphery than experience more DVM nodes and heights blossom --> blocking ensues...etc... -AO Then there has been many papered research efforts relating the QBO phases with that SSW tendency as well... Since the QBO is a fluid mechanical phenomenon, ...guess it doesn't take a huge intuitive leap to see how all that above might have a relationship if they are concurrently happening in the same planetary system - huh. There appears to be a west ( more blocking ) versus easterly phase ( less blocking )? I may have that backwards just off the top of my head... There may be a missing circuit that relates all these together into a seasonal tendency.. And also, in fairness ...this what I researched of this/these subject matter(s) as of 8 years ago - surely enough time to have evolved the understanding further. But, Ozone vs QBO .. both have veracious statistical correlations. Usually when covariance kicks in, I start suspecting there is an "invisible" real driver that relates the two - but who knows. It seems like per my own observation... -- a (QBO(E) + Solar Min) = higher likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(W) + Solar Min) = reduced, but still elevated likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(E) + Solar Max) = reducing more, but still elevated likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(W) + Solar Max) = lowest chance for observing an SSW by "likelihood," means comparing against the longer term frequency - and if I have the E vs W backward, just switch those lol.. Lastly, I don't know what HM was really talking about...I'm just saying it smacks as related to much of this. I also want to point out ...there can be -AO winters that do not have SSW phenomenon observed. There can be +AO winters with a single SSW event and some 2-week period where the AO did fall...but may not have been negative - but the fall characterizes the influence of the former. The problem is, SSWs are just one component in driving total seasonal polar teleconnector/index behavior... It's like the NAO became - imho - overly assessed and popular in the 1990s and the SSW probably will have to go through that meme popularity curve too -

Correct! and to reiterate: "......There's still plenty of usefulness in looking for ( and ... hoping lol - ) -1 SD NAOs that bounce around... For the rip and read forecasting urgency: The virtue of really knowing why the NAO is neggie(posi-) in the means, may be less important than just knowing the NAO is in that mode/modality...." But I extend the notion that "IF" science or special insight ...or flash of insight or miraculously the woman of one's dreams finally returns ... can all point out the NAO's true force-origin, than deterministic forecasting would greatly benefit from that know-how. Imagine... ? Being able to say, " There is a 75% likelihood that the NAO will negative(positive) the third week of October, because of x-y-z in the Pacific transmitting a signal down stream" ?? Furthering yet ... because of wave mechanics, knowing the ridge up there is likely to position west or east based... But agreed, whether it is for responsibly intelligent daily operational efforts in forecasting, or increasing the potency of this social media's addiction to weather drama ... for either "virtuous" cause, taking note of the NAO has practical usefulness. I was not by extension of these philosophies really intending to abase the usefulness of the NAO - though of course ... the implication does bring it down off it's pedestal some. Sure. ( lol ) but no Hypothesis: I just think that the NAO, being inherently downstream of all events in a west to east momentum oriented planetary eddie, cannot really be primary in 'why' there is a snow storm in D.C. It may look that way at a superficial observation, because during or even leading, it is demonstrable on the weather chart, pulling attention to it.. But, the hypothesis presently is that those heights are really emergent from larger/longer scaled wave mechanics; perhaps some sort of lag harmonics from superposition aspects terminating downstream. You know, I've read literature about MJO/atmosphere around the Indian Ocean having lag correlation with the NAO, ...I may have seen it on television Science Channel program too. In both presentations the insight was under the auspices of "we don't know why" - ... I feel hugely confident to the point of averring an outright awareness, that is an example of a transmitted or transitive wave distribution. Adding to that... waves terminating at different rates are arriving from several sources, all the time. All of which constructively or destructively interfering ... And I caught your suggestion/point that ultimately everything is east of you on a rotating spheroid - but hmm.. Said sphere is not a homogenous surface? It has oceans and mountains .. and these differentially disrupt an otherwise "Neptunian" laminar flow. But Greenland is fixed, so it's impact on the atmosphere is fixed... and being a plateau that is some-odd .5 to 1 mile high, it presence formidably. I suspect there is a smaller-scaled yet significant analog ... similar to the atmospheric PNAP bulge that exists over western N/A. Such that as these lag harmonics pass over that geographical region, they get a positive feedback and are thus physically driven to express ridging.

Thing is I’ve noticed the operational GFS has a propensity to lower heights too much on the polar side of the westerlies jet. Cyclonic nodes (hypsometric ) get as deep as 6 to even 10dm too deep in those cores by D7 upon every run. It’s causing an interesting error complexion. In one sense ... the velocities are speeding up; that much is empirical. But the GFS bias is causing it to also speed the flow up because of its own total gradient integral. So it’s adding too much velocity to a speeding up flow. I know this is true purely by nerdy observation focus .. But it nicely accounts for a fairly coherent progressive/stretching the GFS does with its wave handling in the mid and extended range.

Although I know what covariance means in a mathematical context - ... it seems I am failing to get a specific point across to folks: I don't believe there really is a scenario where/whence, " ...Aren't doing us a lot of favors...that's when a -NAO" ... NO, I believe in those scenarios it only appears that former aren't doing the favors... - it's exactly a scenario where it 'appears' the NAO is operating singularly and alone, disconnected... and I just personally don't believe that is really the case. The Pac/PNA/EPO or somehow loading wave kinematics transitively through the medium of N/A and as it then emerges in ridge(trough) expressions up there D-Str and the like ... viola! Looks like the NAO was emerging on its own. Can't make it any simpler than that... Doesn't have to be right ...but I believe it is... We see wave harmonics ( I'll point out - ) all the time cause nodes of constructive and destructive interference that don't come into phase until further down the line... The atmosphere can behave this way as it is a wave schematic. kinda fascinating...

But,... my point is, the negative(positive) NAO in the means, may ( and imho likely IS ..) actually transitively forced to be so based on the Pacific as a transitive (time lag) - it's just that those mechanisms are very subtle at times, ...obscuring and masking the root. Find those roots... we don't need the NAO metric -...because it falsely led the event anyway. The NAO is like looking through the dumpster's content to gather what happened at the party - the problem is...the party's over. Now, if the dumpster keeps filling with the same aftermath ( dumping latent heat into that region where the transitive height tendency is lurking ..., the two will manifest as a blocking mode - but is wrongly attributable as the cause. The lead was the Pac ) then it may have more usefulness in the sense of persistent patterning episodes. I know...it's a revolutionary thinking and who the f* am I, right? Can't say I blame you. I am but a poor boy with drum and a Bachelor's of Science in Meteorology... I am not exactly some kinda postDoctoral rockstar with early consideration for the Nobel Prize for contributions in the area of geophysics ... understood. ...There's still plenty of usefulness in looking for ( and ... hoping lol - ) -1 SD NAOs that bounce around... For the rip and read forecasting urgency: The virtue of really knowing why the NAO is neggie(posi-) in the means, may be less important than just knowing the NAO is in that mode/modality.. for shorter to mid range phenomenon. But a lot of effort and forehead thumb-raking goes on because of the domain's inherent variability overall - models throw up negative(positive) index modes at D6-10 far more whimsically than the EPO for example ( that variability alone sort of suggests its a fragile construct available to butterfly farts) - there is risk in using it. That said, there would be intrinsic value in predicting the NAO at extended leads... whether 6 days, 10 days, or seasonal notwithstanding... D6 is hard enough... D10? Already it's just a ... f'n fantastically stochastic heartache. It's that transitive aspect I was discussing ( I personally feel..) - it's like the whip-end of the unmanned fire hose. But extending this philosophy to even more headachy tortured extremes - if there is any merit/veracity to the "Pac really albeit insidiously hiding its forcing of these NAO variance" model ...it would be useful to physically demonstrate that causal circuitry, because then ...maybe we would have a chance to predict and set the table with that particular metric. Think of it this way, if some aspect of the various Pac mechanics can be closer to highly correlated lag response in the NAO... Than skip the NAO report and just rely on the source. I grow suspicious over decades of tortured vicissitudes of vagarious winds that the Pac is really controlling the NAO ..