Typhoon Tip

Yeah ... here comes the furnaced fall

French Army Corp of Engineers gave up when ceding the land in the purchase and warned ... 'do not attempt to build a city there,' upon exit. Anyway ... I mused ( or bemused ..) earlier about this season's propensity to 'under'whelm ... No system has really show panache in the development phases and in fact, if anything systems seem to sputter at least environment excuse to do so... This morning Marco looked all but plunging into an RI phase of development and keeping with season trend, instead this happens... "the last fix made by this morning's reconnaissance flight indicated that the pressure had leveled off, and no higher winds had been observed from what was measured earlier in the flight. The radar presentation from Cuban radar has also degraded a bit, so Marco's initial intensity is held at 55 kt." It's dicey too - because TC's are a fickle beast to forecast and past performance doesn't dictate future responses and all that ... but when will the season trend of COVID-19 TCs get vaccinated - that's a question...

Paul... we've had SB CAPE over 3500 here several times this year ... just that it's hard to do anything with it when the lapse rates suck and there's no triggers. That said, it's a dicey to dribble those warm buttery dps up under/nearby subtly westerlies increasing along 50-55 N ..yeah I'm almost think MCS .... We haven't had a bona fide overnight windy strober in years around here...

That GFS run is a warm look just beyond mid week tho - those are summer heights ORD-PWM day 8-10 and well beyond ...not a convincing autumn appeal for me but I don't mean nuttin' This run's just doing what always happens in NE... Thermal ridge attempts to progress east across the country, and then the model generates a trough out of nowhere and bullies the hell out of it through NE and all it does is belay the inevitable warm air a couple of days... It's just ensemble-line synoptic behavior -

We need some DP/theta-e to re-pool and well up into the boundary layer ...if/when that happens, these next three days, today through Sunday ...could feature some entertaining cloud scapes. Crispy TCU days with some glaciation ... I was looking at that the NAM and other guidance and the blend has a kind of BD or amorphously so stalling from upstate NY to BOS or SE NH... and that could support some theta-e pooling ... So SPC has Marginal hashed out and that's just about exactly what I was thinking too so... hey, something - Boy did the temp respond ... 53 was my low, just touched 85.... we could be over 40 diurnal today - not bad.

That 'south Atlantic anomaly' stuff has been known for quite some time ...years and years... It's part of the normal geo-dynamics of this planet going back eons. The magnetic field as we know it is a smoothed representation of a complex intertwined spaghetti of local field anomalies and distortions that average out to a the superstructure that we see depicted in Science Channel informational shows and/or text books and so forth, that shows this nice parabolic canopy of polarity extending into space. ... just commenting here - not intending to be heavy handed with it... If any one of these local-field distortions takes on bigger SD than the background noise, it will show up as a 'south Atlantic anomaly' but it doesn't really bear 'threat' in the same sense of that movie's silliness ... so saying, "well, now we have this ..." hahaha not sure that logically follows other than searching for drama.

Jesus ... ... this is no rapid spin up season that’s for damn sure. It might be what Scott was pointing out that we just got all these little turds in the punch bowl because otherwise the main parametrics are all signaling five concurrent category 12 hurricane should be out there right now yet the models are just utterly languishing in any kind of development and frankly they’re doing well as these things just keep up and vanishing into open whirls and then a new flare up happens ... phew here we go and then it fails again rinse and repeat all the way across the basin This is not one of those years were single thunderstorms turn into hurricanes overnight

Did anyone ever notice in that movie how they had the anime of the oceanic conveyor going in the in the wrong direction in that scene where Dennis Quade is explain' things ? ....that is ...in addition to that movie intrinsically being a bad direction, notwithstanding Cli-Fi is an important sub-genre in my opinion, but the key to making a convincing plot is to make it suspend disbelief - peddling in absurdities ...ain't it. They tried to impose like 1,000 years of climate change into three days... There are "jolt" events in geologic history that have been inferred using reanalysis of gas/isotope from trapped air in ice corse or caves or whatever .... some in as little as a 100 years ... but three days? That takes a special sort of gullible beef-wit to suspend lunacy there -

They can share domain space but can impede ... depends. I fledging system can get abraded by shear due to outflow from a more powerful system, but they can be similar in intensity and then the outflows interfere less. I've actually seen big hurricanes that have massive areal circumvallate arms the extend so far away curvilinearly from the inner sanctum of the vortex, that a TD forms on the spiral arm. Gilbert did this back in the day ... But those are not typically long for the world unless they somehow peel away and can escape the outflow from the dominate predecessor vortex. But....better evolved dual system can in fact get into a steady state where their sustaining is not interfering with one another ... Fugi Waras for example -

Quite a historic potential there with IOH around the Gulf unprocessed and nakedly available to any above normal troposphere for development that sets up, which that is modeled to do so... That vestigial subtropical ridging to the N should impart an east tendency to the flow which would translates to lowered shear... Then, insert TC into that total realm ... that has under-cooked in the models written all over it.. I just wonder, has there ever simultaneously been two at or > Cat 3 hurricanes in the GOM before - mmm guessin' no?

Word! .... we've been over this hundreds of times, because, ...hundreds of times this happens and hundreds of times were absorbing TC into a slow moving frontal zone or two autumn nor'easters away from a flood watch. Nature itself is obviously noisy and so of course it is possible to get a 10 year period where it never rains or snows and the region is then impacted by an asteroid impact just in case anyone survives ... excluding that possibility, it seems we can largely ignore 'drought' designations in our climate.

Ah...that declaration is available to question - imho... The climate models ( if that is what we are basing declaratives off of in present context ...) have routinely verified too slow in predictive environmental observations due to climate change. I don't see how that necessarily stamps an imprimatur of certitude on any numerical temperature expectancy ...even in worst case scenario of 5C ( to whomever mentioned that number); the "worst case" scenario could end up wrong too... In fact, magnitude and timing become difficult to un-entangle ... 'was the system just fast, such that the result at the end time frame was based on time error alone, or was the system just more responsive, so time was default wrong by missing the responsivity of the system' - you don't know which and climate as a science, particularly wrt to 'changing' ( regardless of cause mind you - this is not conflation with AGW or just GW...), is clearly proving to have error sandwiched somewhere in between either of those unknowns. Heh...you know, as a digression - if one is insightful that should immediately suggest ... maybe we ought not be mucking around with such a complex system? muah -hahahaha It's an inexact science. We can't say that climate bands won't "leap" based upon thresholds ... suppose at some crucial 3.5 C we witness an event ahead of the climate model et al timing. An unknown trigger effectively pops the band up some 500 km to the N with > 50%, non-returning residence ... I'd almost argue that is at least substantively probabilistic to occur too - as we see "tipping points" as a phenomenon in nature in general - we'd be neolithic incompetent to assume the climate won't do that. The problem with tipping points is that... once the ballast momentum is moving, it takes proportionally more momentum to countermand the effect and bring it back to the previous stable dynamic - which in itself is opening the door to fractals and chaos and other "synergistic" effects.

Good question ... It's important for these TCs that are heavily guided in ensemble means ( to wit, this one appears tightly clustered through 96 hours ) along pathways that take them 30 to 120 naut miles NE of PR... That is considered a "climate key slot" in the statistics. There are exceptions to every rule, of course... but, > 50% of the so-dubbed "LI Express" events, or just EC threats in general, are trackable back to having passed through that described latitude and longitude. There's loads of "synergistic" reasons why that is probably the case ... that require a delicious popsicle-headache dissertation to explore ... but for the purpose of this potential system, it is indeed forecast to pass through that region. And, do so with that same sort of portended bee-line nearing the outer Bahamas - kind of the next key region whereby first there is historical precedence for the PR passage, then subsequently the Bahamas. The concern there after becomes what is happening with the total synoptic layout and evolution over time, east of 110 over the mid latitude continent. Right now, the models seem to want to languish a mid latitude subtropical ridge expression which is biasing the track after D 4 toward Florida impact ... or many members ending up over the GOM. etc. But, personally? I'm a bit of a fan of trend - particularly what I like to call 'synergistic trends' - this is where there is "art" in weather prediction. Synergy is the 'affect' of purpose that only emerges by the collective contribution of all components effecting a system. We call this "more than the sum of its part" ?? Obviously I know the reader knows this ...just making the point that extending this concept to trends...it is possible that we are creating trends that don't really seemed argued to exist when looking at the various factors that effect TC tracks... In this case, we have established a precedence for TCs turning up the coast ...a weak busted ravioli in June, and then Fay ...and technically Josephine can be included, it just sloped a trajectory more ENE.. But, the idea of TC presentation along the EC has become common to this season, relative to climate - three in one season is above average; yet doing so with an abundance of higher than normal mid Atlantic latitude geopotential height during the majority of space and time is 'sort of' incongruent. That is kind of a synergistic trend to achieve there...?? There hasn't been any reason to assume those would have taken place .... but we just keep seeming to materialize a weakness if not trough ... just in time, in each case, to bring these features along the EC. The only difference in notoriety is that they've been fairly mundane events - The impetus of this now way too long of a missive is that having a TC presently modeled to go through said climate key latitude and longitude geographic regioms, together with that synergistic "luck" ( if we will) ... should make one wonder if we should be watching the handling of the total synoptics ultimately guiding what this this will do after D 5... To saying nothing of the fact that D 5 is even stretching the Euro's operational accuracy curve a bit.

Yeah that wind max product, it's a bit of a wonder - I don't wanna call that dubious - we don't know what science is used - but it does seem to "air" on the side of assumptive when considering that wind is mechanics. SSTs, while being integrable in the total 'machinery' of a TC , they are only partial in that total mechanics of wind response. If I were a destruction zealot enthusiast ... eh hm, I'd take an 81 F SST under a superb 200 mb divergency in all radial directions (even augmented by a near-by non-obtrusive TUTT sucking an exhaust channel like a supermassive black hole giving the lower troposphere a wedgie!) while also there is zero mid depth chimney shear ...over any TC just because it's passing over 87F SSTS if in this latter example the TC were fighting hostile deep layer fluid mechanics. In its defense... there may be a product description/disclaimer not seen there - there's that. But it may just be that because the top product's (SST) beset by the lower panel, might be inciting our assumption that the bottom is somehow instrumentally/or conductively based upon SSTS. This is the problem with pulling products that look charismatic without providing any explanation from their sources. ...Especially true on the web where ebullience and enthusiasm tends people to seek and post persuasively... It may also just be bad marketing for that product set to have them side by side, too. Assuming for a moment that stuff is accountable ... that wind max profiling up the MA into NE latitudes is DEFINITELY open to interpretation necessity. We know this just by climate arguments; if a categorical TC were to approach and turn favorably to impact those regions ... acceleration and so forth, winds are not limited to between 35 and 55 kts in those areas as the rapidity of storm motion exceeds decay rate with still marginal SSTs partially supportive, and a host of other aspects like storm-to environmental relative shear arithmetic .. etc.

I'm guessin' the present flare up's gonna earn it a dessie -

To each his/her own... For me, I always get a petty kick out of snow depth - so sort of siding with the retention folk on that by default, but more specifically... the actual vertical stack. Whenever we get close....say in the 30" post standard compaction range and surviving storm intervals, it starts to get interesting for me. My petty kick is to break the 40" on the level, a depth that has only occurred once for me - and the stipulation is...it has to come to me? Like I don't care about hearing about it Spencer Mass where it's 1200' anyway... It needs to be at or < that 600' and have survived the interim synoptics between snow events. That was 1995 ... 2010 ...and 2015... The former made 36" on the level as the static stack height ..which lasted over 2 weeks and I consider the apex of in situ winter in question - 2010 tied 1995. 2015 freak year made 40" but fascinatingly...it couldn't seem to stack deeper. Each storm only compressed the previous snow back down to 40" or so ...within 24 hours of the storm cessation; the fact that ballast of the snow deposition took place at or < that 10 F may have something to do with that... I recall shoveling big snow piles next to the driveway, and they'd would just up and 'implode' collapsing in on themselves at a certain amount where the fluff factor was too fragile to sustain the weight. It's another sort of indirect argument I have about that winter, and that the snow storm frequency, albeit fantastic, was fortunate behind what should have been the bigger news story: the exotically cold tropospheric r-wave event and the unrelenting cold that took place. Without that cold and the same frequency, we'd be likely talking about a 40" month or something - maybe not exactly ... but something like that. Which would be impressive enough... I want to see that buck-20 amount at 31 F though. 1995 and 2010 in a lot of ways were more impressive because they did so at a higher relative pwat/temperature ratio and thus required rarer thermodynamic achievement as a dual parametric result. ...You'll never get the cat to pull it's head out of the bag and agree with that logic on this particular social media...understood - but 2015 was really more about the cold air inflating stack heights. Anyway, in each case ...if you haven't gotten it down my March one you're typically done - even in 1888, you couldn't get the snow to stay that high before the next rain storm so the retention factor was ironically quite low with that juggernaut. ...etc.. And, I sense the feeble warmth of sun back by then and that triggers my taking flight on the winter season ... I don't even give a shit any more as a middle aged person ( meaning that I suspect age has something to do with this...) if we put of a WSW after about March 10 ....

Mm yeah that's fascinating ... interesting too - these "zygotes" are probably the most fragile atmospheric phenomenon there is... A sailor's fart disrupts and we end up with busted raviolis that propagate along in perfect environmental conditions ... vomiting short of cat 1 status, while people entertain us with 'worries' about RI's ...that of course don't take place. Maybe these plumes and "invisible" butterflies turn the pen of those story-lines - obviously they do... It could be these sort of nuances in the punch bowl - ...I admit to seldom spending the time to look stuff that discrete, as I don't have subscriber access to the sophisticated rainbow of technologies that's above my pay-willingness ... that being, free Digression: It irks me that free-data provided by satellite and radar and wind and other parametrical observation net, that is ultimately available because of tax-payer economics, is then used to turn a huge profit ...off the same tax-payers. But, there's other shit about the world to be outraged over that's probably ethically more reprehensible than this petty hang up I'm describing so ...I am not without awareness there - lol

huh... lol, what is "TT language"? ... just making fun for the depressing dearth of drama in the cinema of the models, by comparing them to that metaphor's drab misery -

Boy that is an impressive wave over western Africa tho ... I mean just eye-ballin' convention/coarse data - can't say I blame any agency's triggering there. That sucker emerges off the continent over any SSTs so much as tepid and it's probably going to become a huge "sucker"

That's so funny ... ( bold ) cuz I was just rubbing forehead over that UVM stuff.... Like, if it's not that then, SAL...nope. Shear ...unlikely with that layout... Ice berg upwelling along the SST trade zone, only in sci fi... I dunno - beats the hell oughta me. Maybe the moon's eccentricity is causing a cascade thermal suppression anomaly by magneto-guided polarity acting as a mechanical inhibitor to rotating motion - yeah

Hehhh...it's not that uncommon? putting a question mark on that ...because it's not that uncommon recently, since ...perhaps 6 or 8 years ago. Before then not so much - I've been commenting here and there how it is evidenced that TPC/NHC seems to have adopted a kind of increased modeling reliance when making deterministic assessments on development regions. That kind of model sophistication come more into play around those teenage years of this century...prior to that, the science and 'state of art' of the craft just wasn't as veracious. They've probably got statistical proof that doing so is better than human ability to do so? I agree - So the short answer is that it's become less uncommon. They did this with Josephine recently along the EC ... That was an X with a 20/50 I think when it was sitting some 75 miles inland of VA Beach over the interior coastal plain down there. The models were developing it...and well... it developed... so, score. Looks to me like the Euro operational is interested with this feature... Getting that particular model to even dent the trade pressure pattern off a wave Invest still 500 km inland ...some 6 days out in time is nothing shy of herculean - it's like trying to reform a sociopath into an empathic aware, functional civilian... but the model seems to at least show contrition in this case - that's snark - The ensemble mean also has said dent and pretty much it is impossible at this point to abase the zeitgeist dough-eyed adoration for the ECMWF product suite so having it sympathetic to that wave ... might also be adding to the enthusiasm there - lol

In terms of 'modeling cinema' ( the real desire that draws this engagement ...) we're being served up a Noir right now... Hard to know what is the greater dystopian value: any wayward outlier run that implicates a bomb going off; or the reality that there is no bomb to really see as very plausible given the recent detail-trends in these guidance... Lol ...either way, this may as well be black-and-white, wan-drawn couple of faces making eggs in a struggling economic kitchen, while an off-set homaged cigarette smoking clown sits behind them ... looking panel of model runs lately. It may just be an initialization issue. The 00z GFS for example... it seems to be having difficult knowing what atmospheric features to focusing upon ... creating and then speeding some amorphously defined TC "dent" in the trade winds N of of PR by a hair...Tracking that backward to 0 -hr...it almost looks like it's targeting the region equidistant between where there are any actual definable zygotes when looking at sat and other wind data to suggest perturbation tracking/entities... It's like ( haha ) the model "has a feeling" something could develop down there somewhere... 06z seems to be better targeting wrt to space and time with the proper entity, but decides it keep it flat and inconsequential throughout. Meanwhile, the Euro two or three cycles ago had the present 90/90 Invest cork-screwed to a Cat 2 near Florida ...but has since meh'ed it's way into focusing entirely on the wave about to come off African which TPC - being model reliant more and more in making Invest assessing - is Xing off features still 500 km over land near Sierra Leone ... Basically, ... we are in throw enough shit into the fan, something oughta stick on the wall mode - we'll just have to gauge the speckles as they emerge.

yeah..it's not just that day ... The Euro was well above normal D3 to 10 save one dubious day that appears synoptically over-wrought in handling a boundary BUF-to Cape Cod D6 or 7 as it is... easily correctable. The 00z was quite warm but not like this ... GFS is on a different moon entirely over the GL D5-8 and since that is our source origin air mass ... Not sure the back was really broken by this ... We had a cool back mid way through the last 4 weeks and this reminds me of that... I think we break in the first week of September this time ... Or, the whole bb discussion is beef-witted and a waste of time - oh yeah, ..that

If it's that obvious it's that obvious ...but, I also Just 'made up' the +7 850s - lol... I also like the pattern footprint to look it... too. Something off about 610 dm heights anywhere -

Not that y'all are not thinking this already buuuut... I'd say that is a remarkable trend on the Euro toward a pretty classic CV route thru the climo key slot of 60 naut mi ENE of PR ... with hugely comparative uptick in intensity profile... This is a bit rare for the Euro to do this and bite on a deterministic entity pre designation status/Invest... This model - I have personally noted .. - seems to require an actual presence in the sounding grid - or some form or another of sensible ingest therein ...before it takes off with these things so. It'll be interesting to see if this is just a fluke run or if the next cycle +'s can demo some continuity. Someone may have mentioned this a bit ago ...the UVV potential shows that the American hemisphere is coming to life right now - it may be the the Euro et al are tapping into that favorability ... not hurting that SAL appears normalized next week too. ...heh, watch us end up in triplicate -