Typhoon Tip

It's basically because the polar jet was so suppressed it placed everywhere E of ~ 100 W and N of ~ the 35, so far in a polar bath side ...the region bounded become removed from the gradient - as a mitigating factor. It went S with it. This opened said region to N /stream mechanics to conserve their mechanical presence in the flow, where otherwise their local speed maxima would have been absorbed by said gradient - It's probably indirectly ( if not directly ) related to why the 130" of snow had less water content than climo

Agreed ... I don't wanna get into impugning any other Mets or skilled enthusiast efforts in this so I'll just say this once... This is not a slowing hemisphere ... Note, we can have open wave potency - it happens... 1987 November is an example of a primarily N-stream drive open wave NJ Model bomb that dropped some 12 to 14 mb in 6 hours ( !! ) trekking a low E of Del Marve initiation point to just off Cape Cod. We had 6-8 hour event dump upwards of 15" in SE zones, and as much as 6-9" to Fitchburg ...with flints of lightning blasting through windows followed kindly by girder buzzers. That or something like that ( and that's no aver to an anolog, just sayn') behavior is prooobably the ceiling for this ... I personally think the NAM is over going it NW when it does these runs .. and that something more like 4-6" SE of Orange Mass, with perhaps a some speckled lollypops to 8" possible. I don't have anything in life so don't care if I'm wrong - which is probably why I am good at this shit .. I really don't f'n care... So, bombs away or don't bombs away, this is not a slow down pattern. It's not geophsyically supported in a geopotential height gradient saturation - it's just going against math.

Only things I'll add re Sunday at this time ... -- this pattern incoming/setting up post this swath of fast moving snow/rain showers .. is highly sensitive to minor perturbations and nuanced flow mechanics, from S of Alaska to S of NS ... right along which this event being tracked is railed ... Should bear that in mind, and that was true three .. two days ago and now, in the virtual setting of the models trying to paint whatever happens for that synoptic movie. I have noticed the track of the 500 mb wave space and the attending sfc responses/subsequent tracks .. in all guidance, have/has been en masse driven [apparently] more so by the entire integration of the flow between Florida and Jame Bay making giga motion-wiggles cycle-to-cycle, NW SE ...back NW. That's why whatever consensus there has been - albeit leaving something to be desired and having spread - showed cross guidance shifting together. It's kind of interesting. The wave space is high confidence; the delicate track handling is not. -- the wave space in question is just as of 12z ( now ..), been relaying off the Pacific and is passing over roughly the coastal Oregon .. It may not mean much to this, but could offer a some wild card, should the 12z "wiggle" bump things back NW, and then added to that ...this has more in situ stream mechanics.. This could jump back into some earlier illustrations for fan glory over a couple of short-order cycles. -- I saw the GEFs and GEPs still carry along substantial spread ...all of which is contained around their NW arcs of the cyclone. ..though perhaps slightly less in the GEFs. Some of those members in that stressed track guidance are < 990 MB

Not sure ... but it was useful particularly in higher sensitivity regimes like this incoming flow type where small errors introduced can cause critical track errors. This Sunday’s governing mechanics are not even onshore out west and into the denser physically realized sounding grid

Too bad WPC discontinued the initialization monitoring

.. it's when the models don't really know ... they have to "MAUL" it over - it leaves uncertainty hopes for bigness

You realize it's Chris' fault if this ends up an ALB-Brian cruiser bruiser sou' east of there type of ordeal - opened 'is giant NWS mouth thinkin' he was funny

Why do you always pick the under - it gets a little old ..

Mm... I think of Feb as a cold wash at this point.. It probably has ever diminishing hemispheric cold returns by way of subsequent blocking just getting weaker over time... until we 'end up' climbed out more so then lurch. I've noted over the years of these SSWs that when they did in fact become exertion events/coupled strat/trop interfacing and blocking, PV breaks down ...initiates mid troposphere height rise ... ( ooph sorry there) that it doesn't like .. ever end on a dime. It dwindles...torturously slowly some years. Particularly if it's an SSW and subsequent AO response all bundled up in February proper ... May as well cash out on any summer hope until July! But this year was early January. Since its ever apparently proving a coupled variant post propagation and all that junk ..we can tentatively go ahead and assume this nadir, ...is re-surge related, and that those ending members (subtended right) are too quick to run that out to neutral... My guess is those correct more toward some hillier climb out... We'll see. But I "think" with the La Nina in constructive interference with HC, when this exertion attenuates we may cross a threshold and go warm in March. Y'all know me, I'd love an 80 F March and early green-up... but, I'm not going to sacrifice objectivity for personal druthers - that's got me in too much trouble with woman and I'm not about to give the same proxy over my soul to the wicket bitch in the sky

Isn't that a country in the middle east ?

Truth be told ...if this thing does crank through a moderate showing ... we'll most likely have one or two or three cycles between now and Sunday "kick-off" where it looks like the game's going to get called by "compression pandemic," but the thing ends up airing anyway - Anything to not get the drug ahead of time, but still get the storm - lol

early panic in the run bleed out is under way hahahaha

Oh right - duh ... heh - sorry Forgot about this product. Yeah, so...again, like the GEFs - the spread appears to be over the NW arc. Man, that'd be a hoot: that 975 mb near Cape Ann - The thing is we actually want to watch the SB ...not just having to know the SB in airing while we're in the dark cuz a dystopian cryo bomb's going off in the area.

?? ...in any case, it is - but I'm wondering ... the flow is fast, but does that mean the atmosphere "recovers" equally as quickly ? I mean, I realize you're just posting what it shows, but .. let's say the 7th gets even a more prominent as an event, it will sweep the b-c zone well S-E and probably that 9th then gets dealt a disservice - so to speak. We may be looking at lock-in-step trade off, where we want the EPS mean to get NW more ...and if/when she does, she'll show less for the 9th ?? Wouldn't be an issue if we weren't talking two distinct events at less than 48 hour window... That said, wasn't the 1996 Dec double-trouble event like this? I'm not claiming analog or nothin' - that was unusually short turn around. So we know under the right circumstance we can't work it out. That'd be amazing - holy shit... cuz, we had like 4-6" off a regional positive bust, then 10 to 16" 30 hours later... Preeeety sure we're heading into Sunday with 80% of present snow pack in tact - That would be almost comical - 5 weeks of maddening nothing over a bare ground, then we're sitting 30" on the level boom

Goood - indirectly ... that would be a good thing. Cold tends to be the case when a pattern is too aggressively suppressed. Whenever we get that SPV elephant's ass hanging over us across S-SE Canada we're going to be dealing with some of that - it's a matter of to what degree ( pun deliberate to annoy you ..) and cold usually means the ambient baroclinic zone - I know I know ...big words get annoying but sorry that's what its f'n called - is well south of us ... ...where they get all the fun ice storms and overrunning smears while we smoke cirrus and sting our knuckles on stiff door handles

Fascinating - is there a spread plot ?? ... like this,

Not surprising ... the EPS seems to follow it's Pied Piper operational version.. I was almost hoping for it to be 'more' so ... sometimes, albeit rarely, that happens. But in any case, it's probably telling nonetheless -

Actually some semblance of -WPO there for a change ... nice

That is the most f'ed up fercockta hemisphere I think I've ever seen. If there's ever needed an example to elucidate what is meant by PV "breaking down" that's certainly gotta be on the short list of candidates to use...

Yea... the Euro at 168 and 192 shows the initial set up conducive to a whopper phase, but it can't quite get it done because the southern stream part of the total phase is running through that velocity gobbler over the SE compressed ridge .. It loses identity and so it, and the SPV end up blunted and positively tilted against it... This run and others are all just an homage to that period of time, so... Hey, by the time Monday afternoon's either celebrating or licking wounds, this may be on the modeling horizon - I think it will be.

Hmm.. I wonder if the Euro's latching onto it on this run - hints at bringing the hammer on the 11th as that is whopper SPC and dangerously ejecting S/ stream on that 12z frame - I suppose I could speed this up and go to Pivotal or whatever ...but at least as of this moment on PSU's coarser 2001 serious antiquated freebie - haha Even if the 12/13th prove it didn't bring the SPV down .. the hint satisfies as cross-guidance vulnerable. I like that period ..

Still the 11th-15th lurks ... although probably leans more toward the latter half. Quick repetition before hand - I also would consider the 9th hugely in flux as far as what that will entail - not that anyone asked...heh.

Definitely think the sensitivity (also) here is related to the orientation of the N/ stream SPV pearling going on N of the Lakes to the western/lower Maritime. Ubiquitous ...even subtle backing off on the suppressive nature in how that is integrating everywhere ( really ..) ... immediately evinces the incredible baroclinic potency - it's like under constant pressure, and as that backs off.. metaphor slowly unscrewing a cap and we hiss our way into a flat wave NJ Model low type in step.. The ICON - obviously you know all this gunk ... - was back well off that SPV aspect a few cycles ago and had a pretty impressive short duration albeit major impact, and another 3 degs of lat/lon relaxation may bring those robuster solutions back to the discussion, another 6 and we open wave-style fast moving bomb. It's really a blessed time for multi subforum interests ... to be relayed into another focus in such short order to the last.

I'm sure other's have noted this ... but just in case - The 72/78 hour GEFs have all the spread on the NW side of the consensus cyclone track - which as 101 deterministics go ..that's typically where we'd see future model runs correct toward. Noting at 84 hours, the spread persists, with some deep members there, too - few of which are < 980... In fact, all the more depthy members are in that NW skew plot, which seems to suggest there is some track sensitivity based upon the intensity - Euro/EPS outta be a hoot -

To Will's point earlier in the day (other thread...), the NAM as an 'isolated sweetener' really cannot be trusted, but trend establishing over the bevy of guidance sources lends credence. ( Obviously we don't need "reminding" that trend is not the end...so this is an evolving scenario still - just sayn' just sayn' ) The ICON - in fairness - had major short duration impact by this system over a couple runs recently ... back when it was centered more on the 8th. Also, prior to that, the Euro as we know was having an raging skizoid break with it - ...it's probable that it's governing mechanics in the general eddy were always there but the model tech at this state of the art is still lacking when there's this kind of velocity saturation/compression maelstrom characteristic messing with coherency. So we get closer in time... his system's governing mechanics appears to have been moved up in time, ...more 7th proper. That in of itself is actually a nod in favor of this thing being a real mechanics presence in the flow, because the flow is fast and the correction would tend to be to move things up - spacial-temporal placement during fast progressive flow constructs still corrects sooner.. etc. Probably, this gets earlier yet right down to now-casting ...and ends earlier too...