Typhoon Tip

It's almost as though the hemispheric circulation regime over our side has wended its way into a circumstance where the NAO domain gets to dictate the daily variability .. pretty much entirely. The problem therein is, ... the models notoriously can't handle that particular domain very accurately.. and this last five days is/has proven no different. Every other run cycle seems to reposition the -NAOness west or east of neutral ... and that matters, hugely. The PNA wants to balloon heights over eastern N/A mid and lower latitudes... and this is reflected very well in the operational GFS/Euro/GGEM..etc.. But, when they start tending the -NAO toward the western limb... the N-jet ablates the ridge arc and shunts any warm up south of NE... Now is one of those times... A couple days ago, the eastern limb was favored, and heights were concomitantly edged far enough N to at least kiss our region with substantive warmth/convection... The non-scientific paranoid approach: the way this spring has come to pass thus far ... unrelenting always disappointing at least excuse imaginable... that makes it very hard to believe that the region is destined to see any of this ridge/warm up beyond lies in the models at any time before June 1... But again ...there's supposed to be a reality where other probabilities are in that debate. Heh

This spring has been uniquely screwing the New England region... We haven't had really very many ( if at all ...) proper back door fronts set up and swath thru ... we've just been defaulted inside the dammed ( and 'damned') cool murk air masses from the get-go.. Today is a bust here in SNE... Not sure if y'allz covered it ... but it wasn't supposed to be this wet/cool with back-building ceilings in the general assemble voice from yesterday ... whether machine or man. The NAM FRH grid suggest some sun from 8am through 2pm and that has failed horribly... and the MOS was over 68 S of CON, NH by now ... failed.. Now, sat does suggest thinning sweeps in from WNW as I type and with high sun/long days we might get a small boost in a bit... but by and large, this is trampling on the backs of the bruised.

We both may bust ...but your bust is a bit more modest ( by magnitude ...) at 59 and 64, NAM and GFS respectively ...plausibility nonetheless. Right now ...WPC analyzes the warm from roughly mid-state NY to SW CT... I'm not seeing it as interested in moving NE given to obs and satellite trajectories and so forth. And speaking of sat... back building gunk ceilings after this swath of warm frontal rains ... seems this is a failed WAA push that only augments the llv cold resistance - part of the 'tuck curse' we enjoy for winter storms in the winter but loathe when wanting heat in the summer. Ha, as an aside, it's like penance for our cold lusty sins - Anyway, 72 to 69s across the SNE board and that looks unlikely at this hour ... buuuuut...heh, days are long now. Sun is high enough to even add some diurnal heating if it were to say ...clear out between 3 and 5 pm and we can bootleg highs that cheat and make the day look like it musta been sooo awesome for everybody

Lol... We used to do speed chess marathons on this site called 'Gamecolony' ... you could play for money on those... So (brilliant I know...) when people wouldn't play - we came up with "TakeMyMoney" as a user name... You'd be surprised how often that worked... suckers - we play chess .... well People and money - ...it's funny too. Because economics and money is the ultimate human contrivance/delusion. It's really ultimately meaningless - it only has value because we think so... But it's empty. Whenever en masse a decision could ever be made, or gosh forbid ... forcibly made ( and you can bet ur a panties that time is coming...) guess what? no value, instantly. It's not like a fundamental low of the Universe, without which matter as we know it disassociates into its constituent sub-atomic fermionic particles ..then evaporates into Plank length theoretic quantum foam. Oh my god, without this dollar bill.... It's hysterical ... perhaps for the other definition of what that word means to hear /read about people jumping outta windows during stock market crashes... They're emptied ... by emptiness its self. Fascinating.

The day's got bust potential written all over it... One of those deals where 20 miles N of that extended warm front/statonary boundary may be 53 with on-off strata mank, while 20 miles S of wherever it aligns sits at 84 with laze faire flags wobbling and even a crackle of thunder from a TCU that's probably developed because said boundary is turning BD... usual shenanigans for this time of year.... The trick is naturally ...where does that front situate. Haven't seen this 18z coming out as we type just yet but up through the 12z cycle ... models had been edging the boundary N like 25 miles per run... So no hurry to adjust it. That, and climo... heh...hard to count on a N position with that sort of feature at this time of year. The eastern end of that will likely sag back some... I'd feel better about that if the models would up and knock on PF /Drylot doors

If it is addictive behavior ... there's a problem. It may only be harming one's self - but ...to each his own. I'm not going to quibble over semantics when what I just said is right .... you should read about the smart phone addiction stuff - it's real man... This chart lust and storm seeking thing is a pleasure circuitry, and that's how addictive behavior works ...a device whether the thought of that is offensive or not. just sayn'

Kevin'ill love the Euro ... Creates a fantastic early summer heat dome and shunts 20 miles short of CT the whole way ... nice - ..man Can't say that's a series of charts we've never seen in May.

I'm not judging... not now anyway - "To me" the logic of purchasing extra charts escapes... Seems futile. You've seen X ... X's derivative isn't changing X But then again, I don't by scratch tickets either ... using your metaphor about gambling. Not sure it's the same thing..but we'll go with it Yeah...like I said, I don't immediately ascertain why anyone would subscribe to see the same stuff. It's just painted a different way and or delivered a little bit earlier... In struggling to understand why, I come up with reasons/information that seems related/relevant ... If that's touching nerves - sorry...

Herumph! nice -

Oh I get that... but that's not the point. There is enough tech for free to suffice ...- or enough to satisfy awareness of what's going on or coming ... but it's not about that, huh. You know ... as an aside, it kinda smacks as being similar to that photo-tropic smart-phone addiction thing .. yet another peril of modern industrialized entrapment over consumers. Haha...Okay, so I took liberty with the industrialize entrapment think, but ... the addiction phenomenon is well-documented, scienced, and very real. These weather charts and their delivery ... they are plugging into reward circuitriy much in the same way even Silicon Valley now admits pap and graphics do.. No thanks. I dunno guys.. You part company with your money and you rationalize doing so all you want... If y'all are doing it really for learning that's one thing... and more power to yaz. I suspect people need to plug into the pleasure circuitry with stem-wound bombs though. interesting...

Yeah and I guess to be fair... I can sufficiently "fill the gaps" just from formal education and shit ... Not everyone has that at there disposal so perhaps those are as much a learning tool as they are a reason to gawk at stuff... My approach is different than most - understood...

I don't know why y'all even 'subscribe' to those sources... You're not missing out on anything using free data. One can get just as charged/neurotic rocks off ... by BUFKIT in convection season, or snow growth season ... or what's available of the Euro.. and of course, the GFS suite is pretty much an open book to the public anyway. You gotta get the charts two hours before general consumption or you missed out? seems a bit irrational...and I'm not really sure seeing 'tweener sigma level details really changes a general synoptic understanding and intuitively derived interpretation of atmospheric events nearly enough to sweat those two hours. But, people have money to part company with it I guess...

And I'd even be thrilled with less haha... Anything but east wind, period. holy smokes. yeah 90 under 15C 850s needs a pretty stretched adiabat and that's not likely if it's goop warm under ceilings..

00z GFSX MOS was 82 for FIT on Monday... It's not '90' per se, but with climate weight at D5 that could be shaving a few clicks off the actual potential... I haven't looked closely at the synoptics and it's just the one day though. That's about as far as I'll defend that; lord have mercy should Kevin ever get to formally spear head the interpretation penetration for the public opinion -

Ha! ...yeah... patience' are drawn out ... Frankly, even though the last month's annoying weather has averaged a fair pube better than 2005's rectal journey ... by comparison alone, still if we manage even 70 highs for more than a single afternoon, with 50% sun splashing? That may subjectively should really qualify as a different sensible universe... I clarify that because think of that hyperbole ... typical with any public consumption of word choice, that's a prediction of 32" of heat I don't mean 90 is all I'm sayn' ... I just mean not < 60 or even 50 with consummate mist and strata street heavens all the damn time. And we'll bide time to see if we can gather up higher temps than that base-line. This ridge is still present in the operational runs... Reiterating, one aspect about the recent hemispheric synoptic handling is that the -NAO heights appear to be morphing toward a more easterly biased orientation - that in its self could be bullshit but we'll see. If so, together with a falling PNA ... does offer some wave spacing clue that heights may be rising over eastern N/A longitudes - that's why the operational runs have merit in my mind. Previous attempts to do so were not nearly as well footed by the eight of ensemble...etc..etc.. How much ..how little goes the ridge? Usually headaches. The 00z cycles deflated said ridge by just enough to win at satisfying tele's while still 'getting to' butt bang New England ... It seems come hell or high water, that agenda is always going on haha... I'm not sure how the 'brain' of the GFS MOS is really constructed. They must be taking taking the synoptics and somehow integrating a climate signal...one that is weighted heavier out in time... But the 00z numbers were above climate the whole way after D2 or 3 out to the end for interior sites...

K.. so ... or the few of us legit into monitoring the arrival of summer and taking interest ... The operational Euro and GFS have managed to at last maintain a ridge at frames < D9 for once. We've seen bouts of transient ridging ripple through the east but I'm talking about anchored r-wave positioning... The GEFs teleconnectors ...as of last night, do not support that look at first glance at the numbers... however, this -NAO plague appears to be repositioning the positive height anomalies over the eastern limb...and with the PNA neutralizing and or sinking negative ... that tandem arrangement does offer support of height rises - seeing as the tele correlations have not completely broken down ... yet. So we'll see... But next week actually has a chance to break into a different sensible universe

Heh ?

yeah it's funny you mentioned that 2005 shitshow ... I was thinking that this cannot compare. Like you mentioned... having 1 day in 5 that approaches dandy destroyed the shit average ... leaving that in first place - haha. Folks need to appreciate just how bad that was ... 20 someodd days < 50 F with mist in between nor-easter reloads. You can't write that tortured fiction ... I'm pretty sure there were noodles and bouncers with the rain in the worcester hills during one or two of those coastal accelerations, too -

I just found that a little amusing how 1/6th of that time span has busted - Just pokin' around the area climo sites and everyone's decimals to -4 below normal for May. Insidiously cooler than normal too.. It's not that extreme but has been attacking 2 to 5 pm every day in such a way as to leave a particularly bitter perception on how bad it is... Also, of the last 35 days ...I think it was 25 (?) have been < 20% sun. Which means ... the nighttime lows are probably kept slightly elevated, which mutes the significance of just how putrescent it's been because the numbers skew higher. I mean there are those that enjoy this sort of thing... so neurotic about snow, they must ..I don't know, take a smug moral victory lap because cold shit weather keeps them in denial... But I'm not one of them.

12z Euro's a far cry from the SW heat expulsion party it was throwin up for Sunday two days ago, but that look is a beaut nonetheless. Has +6 C over SNE with implied zero ceilings and what PGF there is, is sending lighter diurnal breezes toward the SE... That oughta keep the s-breeze confined to > I-95 over eastern zones and limiting its cooling capacity at that. probably 68 to 72 and deep blues - but squeezing to 75 at places like FIT over to HFD

Yeah ... fair enough. Last year we had week of GFS modelling physically impossible high temperatures like northern IA circa 1936. We discussed it. Synoptics and how/why the GFS was so ludicrous. I think pretty confidently .. the atrociously dry lower troposphere/BL conditioning of that model led to its exorbitant high temperatures ... It was putting up 111/62 type T/TD spreads... but as we know, we capped 96s/76 at NWS sites ...and 96/80 on the Davis' - remove those TDs and we probably would have ubiquitously made centennial honors I think in the end excitement elevates contribution ...

This is precisely correct if it were up to me ... I've been noticing that, a repeating failure ... where major warm ups enter the farthest edge of the extended range ... but within a day or two of cycles it's been hacked off by NW flow like a head in the French Inquisition ... GFS operational just did it yesterday into today... The MOS off 12z yesterday was putting up 84s to 89s for Sunday ...Then, you'd be lucky to find an 80 on that day... and I'm sure it'll be 54 by this time tomorrow...

Not sure it was ever that certain

Sort of... I mean, this site would do better in succeeding that enterprise if it had mass- appeal ... I'm not here to say "should" anything ... Folks should do what they want. I mean the snow in the elevation ... I find it to be not that unusual to be blunt. Yeah it extended down in elevation below climo by a thou' ... but, all this system's merit really was in my mind was another stolen period away from a warm month. I disagree a little that meteorologist have to be sick - ... tongue in cheek or not, there is a bit of a concentration of one particular ilk of those tended to pre-occupation with one particular facet in this particular corner of social media... I for one have not heard much Meteorological discussion about the synoptic leading this, nor the wonder/awe of it how bad this is given the calendar ... Evidentiary, the awareness and focus has been almost entirely lusting, with a coherent yet evasive 'hope' for seeing snow in one's backyard. Sorry...that's not "meteorological" ... It might be a sickness, okay - but it's not very "sciency" heh, whatever -