Typhoon Tip

Mmm... I wonder what the model biases are wrt to specifically DP? The Euro DPs on Sunday are a suspiciously dry - just me ... Just a-priori synoptic existentialism ... we end up richer. Plus, academia teaches us that a 588+ DAM hydrostatic scaffolding supports higher hypsometric numbers ... then, compounding, we are already tracking a hypsometric plume that's successfully integrating a SW expulsion/EML kinetic air layer, together with continental biomist as it is ... those 57's of the Euro just come off as suspiciously dry to me... The NAM 'seems' like a better fit? Bit, that said...it could be too wet in its own rights. So as usual ...the art dictates the result ... how much or little does one use which guidance and/or morphology in mind synthesizes the right anticipation... That said... conceptually I'm not sure how we're deriving a hypsometric depth of 578+ dm with only 94 F ... It's like 94/76 or 100/66 ... take a pick - There's got to have some rich R vapor numbers in the ideal gas law lower to upper integral to do that... I can understand that the Euro may just be varying drier... but 57 to 60 over much of PA where it is 72-ish in the other guidance... that seems a little light. In any case the models ..the Euro is drier, no doubt. Where the 3KM NAM has a 68 to 73 DP air mass spread ubiquitously through NYS/PA/NJ/MA/VT/NH ... the Euro is tanning lawns... The NAM version interestingly also reflects the elevations changes rather nicely.. with d-slope regions at the lower end of that range, wavelet to the higher accordingly... It's either more right or high resolution garbage - lol

yeah... right, it's called EMT's ... to cart people off the fairway with eyes rollin' around and white foam oozing out of their trembling cooked skulls...

NAM is putting up dangerous numbers on Sunday. 580 thickness eeesh. 2-meter 98’s ALB and BTV about 95 BOS but that’s likely to even out. Either way 578-580 hypsometric with those kind of temps probably sends concurrent DP over 75 for dangerous HIs

Mesoscale Discussion 1253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Areas affected...much of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379... Valid 172304Z - 180100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 379. Storms increasing in southwestern portions of the WW will pose a risk for wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An ongoing, mature MCS has evolved across northern portions of the WW this afternoon. The leading edge of this MCS was demarcated by a stout outflow boundary located from near/just south of GFK westward to near N60. A surface trough extended south of N60 to near Y22. South and east of these boundaries, steep mid-level lapse rates and 70s F dewpoints were contributing to strong to extreme instability, and the influence of a subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming on the western edge of this pool of instability was contributing to new convective development along the surface trough. Over time, models (including CAMs/WoF and to a lesser extent coarser-grid operational guidance) indicate that these storms will grow upscale into forward-propagating linear segments and clusters that will pose a risk for large hail, damaging (perhaps significant) wind gusts, and a tornado or two. WW 380 has been issued south and east of the WW 379 to account for this potential scenario. North of the outflow, convective towers continue to deepen southeast of the Minot vicinity. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and appreciable cloud-bearing shear in the region, large hail is probable despite being rooted above the boundary layer. A couple of storms have developed appreciable mid-level rotational signatures, with should also increase the large hail risk and may contribute to isolated severe wind gusts. This threat should continue for at least a couple more hours. Pending convective trends, temporal extensions of WW 379 may be needed beyond the scheduled 01Z expiration. ..Weatherwiz; American WX Forum affiliate.. 07/17/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 48950191 49099867 49069587 48729519 47689533 47399629 47369785 46839896 46049980 45760116 45680263 45920334 46970329 48470252 48950191

yeah...I know... it's about on par as that 1998, March 31 event... I was up at the UML lab at 3:15 pm and it was 89.4 on the monitor ( locally), but the ASOS at the time had CAR, ME 37 F with a wind gust to 43 mph from NE.... We were like, ummmm -

This below shows an usual 500 mb set up that some how promotes that amount of BD ... which appears at a glance to be disproportionately strong compared - but...this was 1975 ...maybe this was 90% or something...

Then... day and half later there comes the 2nd assault ...but this one goes on to end the heat...

Here was August 1, 1975 ... first attempt at a BD fails and washes out like at the piers and docks of back Bay...

I've looked at those weather charts before yeah... Thing is, when it was ginning up to those hot house potentials ... there was a BD lurking just aching to come down but the height/ridge node bulging in was sort of hold it/biding time... When the heights began to deflate just a little it almost looks like the BD was exceeding the physics ... I almost wonder if the intense heat/buoyancy helped draw it SW...because the confluence axis was way way N of Maine...like really conceptually too far to have driven a boundary that far SW along the Maine Coast. Buut, I guess at 98 and 102 back to back, you sort of don't care how it gets there anymore -heh

Not to steal this "thunder" ( n'yuk n'yuk) but...I would go ahead and extend this risk right through the Lakes .. on into NYS/PA, NE and the upper MA frankly ...given to the fact that the wind is W at 500 mb at an unusually strong velocity along that 588 DAM hydrostatic height by 6 dm either side of that demarcator ... which concomitantly houses a pretty rich hypsometric plume underneath. I mentioned in my heat drafting in the other thread, that the MCS and or MCS/debris would be limiting factors as caveat emptors to heating potential - and still is... Thing is, if it initiates that far west it'll tend to pac-man right of the environmental flow and up S... then we get vil choked and dim sunned out of either interesting weather, heat or convection ...which is the ultimate goal of the butt-bang god controling NE weather ...so...better sacrifice those virgins ...haha

come to think about it ...that'd be a fun geek study to put up the top 20 high temperatures, ranked 1 to 20 ...with the wind direction at the time the temp was taken... Getting really tedious...the average wind in the 6-hours preceding... Then, add DPs - Do Nashua, Logan

yeah...I'm wondering if the winds can go more west in this new run... thing is, at our latitude, it's hard to move 77 legit DPs much over 95... I mean it can happen and has... rarely, but I doubt it was on a 210 wind when it did

Mm... 12z Euro comes in and I may thread that out... if that hasn't already happened.. I just went over the FOUS grid ( NAM ) and 00z Monday has +22 to +24C 850 mb temperature over Logan.... while it is 30 C in the T1 temperature at Albany at 8 f'n pm no less, 31 C at 18z Sunday afternoon... See, some previous solutions had more of a west wind and if that were to say 'correct' that way and that ALB air comes down slope... ooph The thing about that is that the wind is 210 deg at Boston, which is probably picking up some S. Coastal marine contamination... Out in Metrowest that may be west of that diffuse mixed BL and be suffering above MOS guidance given to that thermal compression ... That is a rare 850 layer there and previous NAM runs had a 240 deg wind over eastern Mass ...so maybe/maybe not we get protected... The raw adiabat from a 850 mb tall BL staring at 24 C in 100 F at 1000 sigma so it's probably 102 if maximized at Logan ... So there's got to be something limiting the realization of that potential. It looks like the wind direct because the RH's are all < 50 % ... open sky between noon at 6 pm on Sunday with 850 mb temperature pasing +24C ... 88 at the surface - okay NAM I just wonder if the wind is wrong ... it's 20 degs of dial away from Heat Warning ( probably ...)... interesting.

I was suggesting a thread for if/when the 'historic' nature became more certain? ... seemed higher confidence being inside of D5 in the Euro ...but, this was a very sensy scenario and minor perturbations having bigger impacts on the potential.. i.e., no wiggle room. ...I'm in Brian's camp this morning ... seems more 94 to 97-like ...not sure that's worth a thread. Although, the SW/W EML/thermal air layer ejection is note-worthy. But the atmosphere is fumbling around and f'ing up the hydrostatic/wind circulation medium too much to either sustain it, or purify the heat potential on Sunday now. It'll probably happen now ...watch. Anyway, the overall complexion of this has alleviated some... more of a standard heat wave, but watch for Sunday I guess. The problem is we're right on the westerlies... It's not the best climo synopsis for it - and it's weird. I mean ...590 heights and the westerlies find a way to be outside the ridge?? wtf is happening - Today is a real piece of shit work. Wow - digression in coming... this is what it means to live in this vomit hole east of the Berkshires .... I love winter, but I f'n can't stand this asshole geography in July.... SSE wind packing saturable air east of elevations, while westerly pre-warm frontal slope flow actually negatively feeds back by trying to warm it! It's a persecution complex built right in around here.. lol. Anyway, the inversion protects it from actually getting eroded out of here; so it means we rot in it like a catacomb, eternally... It's almost like San Francisco's famed month "Foggaust" on roids I've seen this many times in the summer here. We get our coldest weather about 10 minutes before the front - metaphorically speaking... but, we could surge almost 15 F overnight when the boundary finally overcomes the geology/topography and mixes down...then, ...rocket to 94 F at ASH-BED-BDL tomorrow by 4 pm for a total 24-hour change of 30 F across the the weakest boundary physically plausible but still could be defined by atmospheric physics ...all because Mt f'um Greylock protects the sludge to the east ... This is the summer version of an ice-storm as weakly analogous? This is that same shit that jams in ahead of a warm front and forces an occluded triple point S of the region in winter, then when the occluded front comes through, you actually get a temp spike in the "cold sector" behind the low... Only we're doing it 30 F warmer up the dial. Right now the WPC analysis shows the front occluded west of Alb... That has to come through ... the NAM had RH2 and RH3 dropping below 60% be 4pm even as far E as KBOS so maybe it sweeps house... my guess is it takes longer...

Everyone in here is a zealot… Dude it doesn’t matter whether in Rhode Island or Maine plus I’m only kidding.. heh

Don’t let it ... this kind of chatter starts every year shortly after the solstice ... gradually it reaches a fever pitch around mid October when winter forecast start ending society in an apocalyptic cryosphere ... ... and then of course spring rolls around with post mortem analysis over what went wrong .. gee we wonder what

00z NAM is roasting eastern mass Sat now. 95. Mixing level quite high 80 for a low brick mortar and street environments

This was a very well advertised back door air mass ... I’m actually impressed the models handled this so well

You guys are funny you can’t take 30 hours of a cool anomaly and it’s really not even that ridiculous we were 74 here for a high today 78 yesterday I can understand you guys living right down the shore within 10 miles of the coast like that because you’re getting right into the marine flow but it’s not terrible out here in majority reality

Saturday sneakily turning into one of the hot days too I know they’ve been advertising Sunday through Tuesday but you might as well throw Saturday into the kettle looking at these numbers it’s gonna be about 94 all across the metro west of Boston around Hartford Connecticut down in New York City with increasing dewpoint

That is really impressive watching the Nam raise temperatures through the 70s Friday night I mean that’s got to be hard to do it’s not like it’s rising thru the 50s into the 60s it’s rising through the 70s

actually... it may be 90/97/92 in this run cycle...

Yeah..the model run ( Euro's) owing to the precarious nature of trying to run a heat wave through here when we are literally right on the fence of the westerlies like that... In this run, we don't get the heat wave. We do get the one hot day in Sunday... That said, I'd be leary of this returning in future guidance... It's been waffling anyway and this run is almost keeping that discontinuity ...continuous - if that makes any sense.

Is that list all time ? ...as in going back hundreds of years

Fwiw .. 12z NAM is pretty hot on Saturday PHL-BOS... with T1 of 31C in PHL offering a plausible 2-meter slope to 36C down that way, and 33C Boston ... we're already as of Saturday in the 92 to 97 in F standing outside the Chamber Of Commerce/City Hall in those cities at least in the NAM But here's the thing... that's almost antecedently required for Sunday to have a shot at 100... Probably PHL to NYC makes it anyway...but we need that 93 with maturing 850 slab moving overnight into Sunday morning...such that there's a high launch Sunday morning...