Typhoon Tip

that's more like it! When the universe ages to it's termination and ceases to exist... SPC will still be trying to place warm fronts too far NE into this sort of synoptic set up -

Now watch...just because I mentioned that stuff about the geo-morphology and forcing of near earth surface synoptic weather phenomenon ...limiting warm frontal intrusion ...the 12z NAM will go ahead punch the f'er to Grey Maine... ha

in a bushman's vision ...that's why though. This is anomalous air mass for seasonal change... It's not even a preview ( 'shot across the bow') really ...strikes me as a fluke. I like shot across the bow, breaking back air masses to be anchored in a definitive pattern modulation... This is a weird thing that I think is related to another popsicle headache... Anyway, 18 hours later summer tries to surge back, and homage to the idea that it's still there... And that's a problem ...when you have still active moisture draining off foliage and evaporation of soil moisture content in the midwest and Lakes regions .. mixing with tumbling 17+C 850 mb temperatures ready to surge right back in, this unusualness of the severe set up for this time of year...is sort of indicative of this 18 to 24 hour fluke air mass... Correct one way, snap back - It's really difficult up our way too...because our topography/geographical feed backs offer more forcing that stall or even reverse warm fronts. Basically, because the land falls out in elevation from underneath the troposphere when east of NY/VT/NH. Vectors lifting over the western hills/mountains and general higher elevation, sets up a kind of "invisible" counter-vector that rolls the atmosphere and tacks back W-S at lower levels east of said axis... There's a forcing back SW... at all time below 800 or so mb. This is why BDs seem to get pulled back down the coast...it's more than just the mass discontinuity ...That's the start, but that motion of air then gets a kick-back from that tacked vector and then the boundary over achieves... it's why in late April, a common almost fixture of fronts stalled in the area is that fronts align smartly due E until about Albany, then curvilinearly descend SE and wrap around NE and even go back N over the water E of Cape Cod... It's that rolling motion that retarding. It's also why we "tuck" in the winter and enjoy ice storms while PF in N. VT is 52 F at mid slope.

I have not been altogether impressed by the Euro's handling of tropical systems of the years. That's from the genesis phases of them, to the handling of them after the fact ...until they begin to experience the influence of the westerlies ...then the model's a kind of "johnny-come-lately" and does remarkably well. I think the tropical regions/monsoon trough zones are like a "limit" in the equations - and I wonder what the mathematics over the 4-d variable system is doing at that x-coordinate boundary ...where it's like a geo-physical asymptote .. fading to oblivion more so than a discrete edge. I guess a metaphor is like 'slipping outside the Euro's radar-range.' Anyway, I wonder if their system falters there a little...because its in that amorphous ill-defined boundary that zygote TW/TCs tend to formulate and begin moving W where the 10 N and 10 S ( depending on hemisphere) gets influenced by the underbelly of the HC and the easterly trade winds zones... The Euro is routinely lagged behind other guidance in genesis in these regions, and then... seems to be challenged in intensify systems ..playing catch-up with the other guidance. I'm usual raising a brow at this point if I see the model even carry an inverted 'dent' west around 15N across the Atlantic ...usually at the other end of the scale, it is not uncommon to find the GGEM is negotiating a categorical hurricane if/when the Euro does... Anyway, since Laura is technically still moving with westerly component ... which means it is not yet influenced by the westerlies... I wonder if the Euro's hiccup runs deviating from the consensus is part and parcel of all this...

And Saturday looks really bad to me on the 00z Euro... In fact, the behavior of the pressure pattern and QPF matches climo typology for tornadic events over eastern NY the upper MA and interior SNE ... with a pretty clearly define morning straif of elevated convection along a warm front strongly supported by synoptic detailing, giving way to warm sector intrusion to lower VT/NH ... and along the residual warm frontal axis arcing into upstate NY there are very intense convective nodes exploding in the model resolution of what happens next... Those are super cells folks - no question given the W 70-90 kt 500 mb flow running collocated overtop a sun steamed, fresh theta-e transported low level thermal ridge ( 850s 20 C CT over SE Massachusetts!), and heights tending to fall overtop from west to east across the area between 18z and 00z Sunday... The key is.. warm intrusion and fresh falls of BL rains near 12z clears out and this creates a pal of SB CAPE anomaly in the area...if we go back and look at the daily behavior prior to '89, Monson 2010, even ORH '53 ...and the Mohawk Trail MCS June 10 '87 ...these are all fine examples of what to look for and were remarkably similar with dawn rumble rains that peeled away and sun-soared to mid 80s/72 blue-tinted bath water hillsides ... ensuing jet mechanics nosing in mid day from the west... That's Saturday incarnate - I mean Oklahomans might feel jealous looking at these general synoptic parameters. Devil's in the details with convection though ...so, this is just what I've gleaned off Pivotal - there may be distractions I'm not seeing or are unaware therein but ... it's like Thursday and Friday have their intrigue, but Saturday was painted with unique convergence of parameters constructing a convective appeal on a guidance that is very tough to beat at time ranges < 120 hours. I would change the title to three days of potential and just encapsulate the whole saga -

Ha ha yeah this isn’t the panhandle of Texas from late April to early June when you have 45 straight days of visible crispy super cells rollin under the tropopause

All three days Thursday through Saturday look troublesome or certainly could turn out that way with that front oscillating in the area ... accentuated helictites long it with unusual thermal gradient for this time of the year either side is intriguing. Seems that EOF1swarm idea had shifted more to Saturday with organized cyclone mechanics in the area but the boundary itself could be active for a couple days before that ...wherever ultimately sets up

If humans would stop f'ing as a species beyond their means... and overpopulating the planet, ...than objective analysis on where to plant civility would have a chance to work... Unfortunately, ... when you have the collective biomass that is many orders of magnitude larger than any other species ... you have to sans advisory and sequester land. And so, concomitant with population over-abundance ...you get cities and their edificial infrastructures, and their populations... placed in harm's way... And guess what ...pandemics are part of harm's way. Reduce population density,...the disease doesn't spread as readily... it's mathematically determinable to have already gone through the natural virulence gestation in the population by now... But this? Nooo... plenty of contact accessible to the pathogenicity of this thing ...probably indefinitely when talking about 7.6 billion warm bodies. Around and around we go... because by the time this thing has intractably moved through and/or a vaccine has been created... it's mutated. The Influenza A/B and the vaccination modulation necessity therein ... is all overpopulation driven... The strains might disappear entirely if the population were 10% spread out... But, we are idiots in spite of our conceits and we cause the problems we need to solve... when the solution is, don't cause the f'n problem in the first place. All of it... reduce population and planning... everything goes away. Utopia has a chance to emerge - It seems like such silly simple arithmetic thinking ... Yet so fantastically dark that Humanity can't get to any such "real" conservatism - not the conservatism of the GOP; that is something else entirely and this is use of the term is not a political distinction presently... Yet, the solution continues to elude when it is right there. Houston...despite the storied history and the irrational nostalgia that people use to justify perpetuation of idiocy as a general aspect of human convention and design/practice of behavior, is a bad idea. Same holds true for Miami... Actually everyone west of the central valley of California... Probably Seattle.... And I wouldn't put anything or anyone along the Gulf, or within the flat estuary reach of the mid Atlantic states... outside of indictment. Boston, NYC.... assholes. Probably some 90% of chosen 'humanity-depots' around the world-over, are karmically worthy of some dystopian destiny ... Of course then turning to god in tears when shit happens... What an ass-clown species we are... At least Pompeiians didn't know about geology -

Lol... Models are exerting weight though - They aren't like, "making it up" - haha. I mean, in theory that is - sometimes I wonder if there isn't a secret parameterization of the runs to mute global warming appeals at times...because the models seem to go out of their way to normalize hot looks using suspiciously subtle means ... Excluding the world conductors of conspiracy in weather forecast model possibility for the moment ... there's got to be something in the physics beeing sniffed out if the GFS is going to be creating pigs like that vortex it sees D11 ... I was extolling some ideas on why in my usual unable-to-be-read loquacity a few posts ago.. Anyway, it does near ...

Lol - ... heh, it's more of a subtlety than all that ...but sort of - It does present a larger --> smaller scaled neggie interference pattern, tho. It's not so much preventative, that interference is changing the behavior of daily events. I almost think of it as a 'torque budget' in the atmosphere, one that is based entirely upon the very real mathematical governing principle of the coriolis parameter ... and the geophysical limitation that the Earth only spins so fast as a constant in the mechanics ... blah blah popsicle headache. But, what that means is that if the velocity is screaming at the scale of large R-waves, there is less left over or available to corkscrew at the local scales - if that makes any sense. If you go back and look at all the bigs juggernaut bombs of history, the majority of them ( but not all ...) tend to transpire in regimes where you have less fast flow and more buckled flow Another way... If the x(y)-coordinate velocity(s) exceed the z-coordinate evacuation (or upward momentum), the system has difficulty maintaining a columnar structure in the troposphere and blows up into increasing WAA favored structures... - which conceptually that should make sloppy sense per common experience - it's harder to go around corners at higher velocity? The thing is... I have brought this up in the past ...this morphology ...and folks seem to get offended. Like I am taking down their snow chances... Noooo... I know this morphology is taking place - I have no idea what this means to seasonal snow totals, frankly... But, I do suggest that more icing precipitates out of overrunning scenarios than snow... that's just duh. That's a whole 'nother distinction therein too... Like, the fast overall flows don't favor stagnant set ups... So, the 1998 type of 4 day ice storms are probably less likely to occur. Perhaps more similar to what happened in 2017 when we had three .4" sub warning but substantive glazing events...each in and out in 6 hours in the interior. That sort of turn over quick rip is more likely ... We've also seen increased storm translation speeds in general... I mean, that 958 mb hyper bomb that detonated off the Carolinas a couple years ago, and shot SE of the Cape just out of reach to really cause National Guard notice is an example... It's odd to see such exotic depths moving so quickly ... we usually need a cutting system that benefits from interior diabatic heat release to really core out the atmosphere ...1978 ... etc... But, that exotically deep event was benefiting off the scream jet ... having successfully coupled with the diffluence it created... There was another like this last year up near NS/NF traffic zone... 948 or something terrifying of 'Cane province in white cloth... with black eyes and stoic expression at the sight of suffering... The problem is, at high velocities... coupling fluid mechanically gets narrowed... I'm conceptually wandering ... Point is, I'm not saying that shearing out and ripping open S/W's ...if not absorbing them in the high velocity maelstrom, should 86 winter... I'm saying I am anticipating seeing the same shit going on this year.

Can't say I disagree with this notification effort thru yesterday's 12z... 00z, not so much in the Euro, but the GFS hangs on a bit... But In the other thread, I mentioned a couple days ago that D5/6 looked like an "EOF1 bomb" potential for the upper MA to NE states... These baser kinematic structures you're honing in on were evidence back then and as of yesterday - by then D3 ... Maybe like a last season 'threat hurrah' as the summer closes the books and we'll see if this new-ish complexion toward seasonal migration that the operational Euro GFS suddenly paint has legs... Could be a rush job - I think the GFS 528 dm double noded height core amid a continental scoped, sub polar vortex over JB is a bit hard to cough down in late August/early Sept... but, I also covet some personal "science fiction" plausibilities as to why the model is doing that, and it is rooted in evidence spanning the last 6 years... Namely, we've been "continental folding" at transition seasons with unusual proficiency at the books ends of winter. That's John- labeling ...there's no actual identity of that in Meteorological/climate vernacular ...but, I call it that ...it's like super synoptic scaled "Kelvin-Helmholtz" effect. We have velocity surpluses in the mid and upper tropospheric ambience that is tending to kick in very early in transition season, and... lagging unsually long on the way out. The cause is the expanding HC...or in the case of Autumn, the HC expansion as a persistence on-going perpetuated state, is triggering gradient to increase very quickly as the sun's integrate insolation across the hemisphere begins to dim toward the ends of August and particularly...during Sep/Oct ... This increased gradient is directly proportional to the surplus velocity. But why that is important is, the velocity of the jet is "folding" over the top mass of the R-wave fields, and this is increasing/enhancing trough node tendencies earlier in the year of eastern/southern Canada, and also... in May's ... This 'plausibility' is why we have since 2000 experience either synoptic scaled snow chances, or, ... packing pellet virga exploded CU cold waves in Octobers and May some 1/2 if not 2/3rds of the last 20 years worth of transition seasons ...either end. In between? ...DJF/early M .... that HC stuff impinges a whole 'nother issue with raging jet velocities so extreme that it forcing a morphology of precipitation event structures. Anyway, this may seem to have nothing to do with Thursday at this point ...but, it does in the sense that the mechanics are perhaps being exaggerated over what is normal up our way...as these gradient rich events transpire through lingering seasonal warmth and dps... Outside the box thinking a little - In any case, the pattern looks in the 00z run by the Euro to have moved to more a NW flow with some positive shearing ...maybe more whisky line or even MCS-y

Hopefully this splits the LA/TX goal posts and squirts in up the coast from Houston where there is relatively lower/sparser population densities... ...much to the chagrin of the morally responsible dystopian lust audience ... Nav Gem looks rather Isaac Stormin' ..it even has it cork screwing down to cat 3 100 miles from the coast

Actually the Euro/EPS migrate the westerly band some 10 latitude S as well... but ...notice the heights are not really relaxing S of ORD-BOS latitude across the continent; they are reducing due to compression - that's a gradient saturation. That's setting up ( already!!!) ginormous gradient and jet core velocities ( relative to season/calendar) ... One thing for certain, it's going to make for an interesting modeling journey as we turn the corner over the next couple of weeks and beyond...

Well rat's bid... no sooner did I labor an op ed about the lacking real pattern change toward autumn... the GFS goes bonkers - the thing is ...this big vortex over JB with 590 heights jammed clear to almost Chicago is ... is almost terrifyingly indicative of a planet in peril

Man that thing looks insidious ... but ... sometimes comparatively weak TCs in that region of the Atlantic basin can achieve some exotic cloud heights .. only to have an aircraft get in there and find out it’s 50 kts

The absolute scalar point at the end wasn't intended for you, per se ... just sayn' The point and supposition ...formulaic en route to a hypothesis I am/was attempting is right there ( enlarged bold ) as a necessity. If it is very warm(cool), we'll talk. Hypothetical/boundary premise: I'm just creating hypothetical numbers to elucidate the point there... If the region outside of the ENSO ...which in a coupled oceanic-atmosphere volume of atmosphere is the entire planet... is already hot... what f'n difference does 1.5 C in SST mean when subtropical waters outside of the spatial domain of the ENSO band itself are already +2 or +3 C ...? It's a tricky argument to settle, no doubt... because that scalar thing does play an evil role in the consideration (ha). Fascinating... But, +3 C at 35 N... does not carry as much energy in the coupled system, as +1.5C anomaly does farther S - why? Because +1.5 C in a 80 F water column has a more energy stored in it than a +3 C in a column of 74 C... This complexity then gets far more grueling a prospect then asking this particular collection of 2020 unprincipled politicians to agree on the flatness of Earth! I'd think I might rather suck on the latter's pistol muzzle over having to solve the other one - Anyway, you get my meaning... so, gradating the force is also a nightmarishly complex secondary and tertiary derivative(s) in, and if/when the scaling of the equations and all that shit.. yeesh! So I just smooth it out conceptually ... The boundary of the HC has expanded too far beyond the ENSO domain ..such that the ball of the ENSO is bouncing around inside and not transferring momentum into the jet/R-wave middle latitudes ...because the lowering gradient once inside the boundary of the HC, is decoupling it's effect. Plausible evidence of this: The pattern of response behavior over recent decades with these NINOs and NINA regimes has changed to be less impacting. It seems neither has been very representative... The last "super NINO" (...which, that is not a distinction in conceit it statistically was that abnormal ) expressed very limited or at worse, manageable impacts around the known global regions. This sort of dimming correlation between occurrence vs impact in the total complexion is - in my mind - likely geophysical in nature ( i.e., more than 'chancy'), from having a warmer expanded HC into the lower middle latitudes. This has expanded the playing field beyond the QB's throwing distance if we want to beat the metaphor to death. If the atmosphere was more akin to 1955, and then we ran a super NINO like 5 clicks ago up underneath that ...? Phew, we'd probably have had hell to pay in enormous geo-physical responses, because gradient is the entire machinery of nature ...and...weather and climate - that's the whole game. I keep harping that...because ( not you but a lot of enthusiasts and others...) see El Nino and their expectation of what that will mean ... becomes too guiding. Has to be qualified ( in a sense). One my know that if A=B there is no A or B ...intellectually say they understand this stuff, but then turn around and their seasonal predictions are hugely instrumentally based upon the ENSO? What - Well...anywho... I toss almost all ENSO based forecast these days and assume if the season correlated, it's probably luck ...because the polar indexes and Asian torque guiding the total pacific in the wave absorption at the super synoptic scales, happened to come into sync and that gave a false impression of causality. ... It's very similar if not down right analogous to the MJO: If the surrounding atmosphere is in constructive wave interference, the MJO looks like it was the entire cause of why the circulation over all took on its construct... but, if the surrounding medium is in destructive interference... we pass through huge Phase 8/1/2 and end up with a Clipper ... So in that sense ...a warmer atmosphere and ballooned HC doesn't give the ENSO chance to even sync

Op ed: I am noticing already there is a tendency for higher mid tropospheric wind velocity anomalies circumvallate around the curved bases of troughs over southern Canada and we're still technically in a summer climo month. I'm wondering if we are seeing a portence of this winter ... I don't see the geo-wind anomalies being observed over winters as of late, as being merely flukes; consistency begins to argue against randomness. It has been spanning aggregate winters at this point in planetary in scope and scale is another point. But, it is conceptually/intuitively supportive in the notion of HC expansion introducing excessive geopotential gradient in the means where the HC terminates amorphously with the lower Ferrel cell latitudes... ( ~ 40 N ..which climate scientist remind us that boundary is not a discrete geography because the termination is seamless ...duh, it's free air). Tamarack posed a fantastic observation the other night ... (to me); paraphrasing his remark and probably butchering it, 'in my 60 years I see winters as having similar extremes in cold, just fewer of those cold extremes. Meanwhile warmer seasons or events that are warmer than normal within, are increasing.' That homage essentially nails it! But folks seem to be less aware of 'the less frequency of cold', instead focusing on whether it still gets cold at all - almost like a denial pathway... ( 'feels' that way). Even 2015... (December+February)/2 ... really mutes the significance of that February... it was like that February was bigger picture obfuscator that distracts from the fact that the December thing ...prooobably is getting more likely to occur while we hid in the exultation, awe and orgasm over that historic month later in the winter. Something like that...

D5/6 Euro continues the big severe look for me... ( 00z operational but the EPS bears reasonable likeness) Also... it occurs to me there's no definitive pattern change that suggests we are moving discernibly toward seasonal change. We are introducing some increased frequency for frontal intrusion down to 40 N over the continent - I don't see that as necessarily signaling that because you can have boundaries lay down across these regions in JJA of any year. I think folks confusing that "fair" assessment with calendar date and expectancy ..so labeling it as that. Having 850mb temperatures of +15 to +19 C on D8/9/10 of the operational Euro under 582 dm hypsometric bath everywhere S of Colorado to Maine is deep summer... - just imho. We have yet to observe a kind of quatra-hemispheric scaled coherent evolution of the pattern away from summer and into transition ... I also think that I may be missing the point here a little ...in that we're really elaborating on the 'feel' of days ...? If perhaps the early sun setting and earlier light-dimming in the evenings, combined with just calendar awareness ...these psycho-babble feed into that... But I need the the pattern 'break' toward fall and I'm not really seeing this - it appears to be more likely happenstance of the pattern allowing more cfrontal in an interval or two, coincidence with expectancy ... The front this week has shallowed in the Euro coming inside of D5 ... what's new, as it has subtly backed off the height coring into Ontario that it typically has to correct when between D6 --> 4's ... ( these are the summer versions of the D8 east coastal bombs that model entertains us with as a seemingly permanent model run to model run fixture ... only to become shredded Clippers - sarcasm!).

Good question... Considering the system as a whole… meaning the entire Pacific basin, there is thermal residency that’s going on out there that is consistent across seasons and normal seasonal variances… In other words it’s always warmer than normal, which has been a persistent observation probably going back 20 years now at least 2/3 of the time if not more I don’t think it really matters either direction particularly if an ENSO in question is inside crucial thresholds, whether weak warm or weak cool events. If they are within whatever that hypothetical threshold is they are damped Another way to look at it ...the band of SST’s that are cooler than normal, it’s just a tiny fraction of the entire Pacific basin which is still warmer than normal as an integrated mean overall so in terms of coupled oceanic/atmospheric physics I don’t really see how modestly cool ENSO really is going to force anything compared to that monster ballast of warmer than normal forcing that’s consistent everywhere imposing a masking more dominant lever. Nother thing to keep in mind is that when we say cooler than normal or cool ENSO and all that… It’s not like it’s sensibly cool water? It’s just cooler than normal ...it’s still warm equatorial water ... I guess if you’re right up against the coast of Peru in the up wells it’d be a little bit chillier by the time 1200 km west of the Americas on the Pacific it’s 74° water vs 84 ( cromagnon example )

Yeah...not to gloat but it was epic here ...that line congealed around 3:30 Keen to Concord NH and has just been crawling S fanning 55 mph timbre crackling gusts... nickle hailers, and pronged multi pulsing bolts jesus... Even flood warnings in a drought zone - ... thing is, the line is moving slow too - it's sneaking memorable for around here to have static outflow for 10 minutes like we had in Ayer - I mean more typically the tree tops lean over for a burst and then it's just breezy with heavy rain. This... ? it was like gust after gust of gust... And some people getting 2" of rain in 35 minutes... No Watch head scratcher.. .it's been a warning wall the whole way too. Ha... Weatherwiz must be apoplectic

heh...may have to cancel the drought along and N of rt 2

this is something we don't often see around here ... slow moving pigs... Man, severe crawlers out near Princeton ...and actually a broken line to Manchester/CON area of NH with embedded severe triggers in there... Can here distant low db reports from CB wall with glaciating toes poking through a vil curtain ... while it's sear sun at 94 overhead ...it's like ... what is this, southern Iowa - wow

just gonna mention that... Today sneaky scorcher... 94/70 here is no slouch for Augie 23 ...

Think we’re missing an important component related to climate change in this discussion about winter length versus winter intensity… The endpoints of winter are being skewed - although Will mentioned - by seasonal lag in the spring and by also continental folding causing early cold departures in October and November’s ...meanwhile on the gradient expansion in the middle of the winter is modulating extremes around general warmer than normal relative to DJF. It makes it sort of confusing to categorize because it’s “shortening” December January February but it’s in a sense lengthening because of the colder than normal transition seasons at either ends- Which in itself is obfuscated further because it’s really the patterns that look cold at the transition season and it’s probably only cooler than normal 50% of the time ...something like that

The 00z NAM has the Lifted Index down to -8 over eastern regions both late tomorrow and Mondsy. -8 that’s about as deep as I’ve ever seen that particular metric this far up in the Northeast… Yet there’s 0QPF painted either day wow. Just at a glance the recent GFS runs look like day eight would be an EOF1 bomb from the upper MA into the New England states