Typhoon Tip

ah...well.. sorry then.

mmm... yes and no on the bold. At least not for me .. It's anecdotal but the last four consecutive springs have been like forced tongue f'ing satan's cold rectal plaque to me. Clear 'till Junes. You'd think that'd correct any expectations ... We've definitely had some freak warmth in February, and back to back in Aprils in there... But, those were not the tempos of the season's they were couched in... Those seasons were horrible. Personal druthers and complete exposure ... I hate snow storms in March? Last year was a donkey-balls tea-bagging that lasted until mid April at that, with countless baseball games in the 30s at the MLB level? Nah, dude... I realize we're just trying to engage in commiserative conjecture here but I don't believe your characterization of 'recent springs' is really true. Those big winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in the midwest then here, were both taunted with early warmth that faded back into vomit springs. Actually... 2015 was pan bad - I think we gotta go all the way back to 2012 ... and actually 2009 and 2010 were both high hot and hard early ... But, maybe your sort of "delusion hangover" for warmth really stems from that part of the recent 10 years. Tru perhaps ...

you and Bob the point is, people raise objection and impugn others and their own position is flawed much of the time - helicopters can't fly that high -

that's the point hello -

Better yet ... get in a helicopter ... go to the summit, take a photo, get back in helicopter, land in time for lunch. I know ... I know... not the same thing, but ... hypocrisy comes in all different forms. Like that social reformist hammering away at a blog rant about the perils of high technology's robbing souls and leaving our youth vapid ... while dumbing down everyone else ... on the internet. More than half the self-proclaimed vegans out there .. are unaware, that almost nothing they wear isn't proximal to some form of animal exploitation - and philosophically valid... one can argue that any other person in the greater Kevin Baconism of humanity, those that regularly imbibe cheeseburger when delivering clothing products ...count in that form of hypocrisy. Oh, rationalized with 'we do what we can' - okay.. People want to see film of the atrocity of people stopping to take selfies while the nose of a 110 mph jet max is right on top of them, ... just so they can rebuke the process of stopping to film. The fun part of this exercise is that these forms of hypocrisy are unwitting ... Unwitting hypocrisy makes one want to laugh at the other person's 'righteous indignation' ... Until you point it out to them, and they turn flush with shame and go, 'oh,' or, rage on ... at which point hypocrisy transmutes into stupidity.

I get the humor but actually ... it really hasn't been that below just the same. In fact, of the four tabbed climo sites available on TAN's website, two are modestly positive for May ... much to the chagrin of the beleaguered warm season sufferers, I'm sure. Perception is everything. I really still believe it is the fact that since April 15 or so ...we've been at or near historically high cloudy days ... We've actually been that successful ( relative use of the word... heh) in the measurable precipitation to go along with. Tarmac and I were musing last week that despite that, ...we're not even that much above normal rainfall either. Yep... 20some odd days of delay-wiper counts too... So afternoons are chilly and nights are chilly but, warm compared to average...so the roll-up numbers for the diurnal cycle utterly cheat the sensible justice... It's just shit weather...like period. Nothing else. ...For forty-five f'um days too ... save for Mem day weekend ironically. I think this spring has been an attack more than anything else. Specifically targeting those that want nice, melon days ...with deck fair, the smell of lilacs and grills permeating neighborhood air. It's like there's some great metaphysical force that is targeting those souls for assault. muah hahahaha Seriously, if we could string a 'nough sunnier afternoons even 74 F for a high, that too would still suffice your humor because even that seems only to be in the dreams of a Cell-block H at San Quintin resident ...to be free of this cold pool.

having said that the 12z NAM tries to look warmer - it's a start...

noticing a distinct lack of low level pgf everywhere, ...with limited gradient in general from the st lawrence seaway all the way down to the va capes. it's hard to 'mix out' cold stable low level saturated air mass when it's slabbed in and there's no movement. the sun will go to work but regions n of the boundary ( like here ) are sol because it's just too deep in the atmosphere for the sun to do it alone. the NAM is likely more qualified to pick that sort of thing out as it's resolution is better in the planetary boundary layer.

it's good to point that out ... I'd add, because we've had a surplus of mank days at some -10 if not -20 F daily max biases ... whatever in the hell paradigm we shift toward it is reasonable to assume it will be warmer.

also...seeing the operational Euro be such an extreme outlier relative to its EPS mean between D6 and especially out toward the end of the run ... yeah, that range is subject to change anyway - of course. But the idea for a warm look by mid month is not conjured in a vacuum... The EPS mean fits my own thinking - which of course means I give that a nod... ha.. But, I suspect the operation run is full of shit. I think the flow stretches more around the hemisphere - and by that I don't mean long wave lengths.. I mean less deep heights next to tall ridge nodes. And the way that expression from the eastern Pac to south of Greenland will probably not mean a -4 SD super massive black hole S of Nova Scotia on D10 ...

Despite the 00z suite's apparently rolling back/reneging on the earlier 12z's suggestion of extended range pattern change, I still believe there could be a shift lurking. It may come and go over the next few days before it gets more coherent. Granted ... the teleconnectors are losing their correlative value at this time of year, I still believe there is some "vestigial signal" ( it's like listening for Voyager ) there. Particularly when there are now occasional operational version model runs that try and fill the persistent lower Maritime trough. 00z Euro, ... 180 reversed the 12z attempt to do so. Nonetheless, the means is likely in the beginning phases of detecting that change toward normalizing that feature ... Which it probably should anyway. The whole -NAO complex we've suffered... it was put in place because the evacuation of the winter pattern put the hemisphere in sort of a lurch prior to the onset of subtropical ridging concomitant with summer. The AO was like left statically albeit not obviously negative. The girdle of subtropical ridging features haven't really got going yet ... until they do.. the AO is likely to remain neutral neggie, and these blocking regimes are probability favored above the 55th parallel. There's also a causal "chicken vs egg" thing going on with all that, too... Lacking subtropical ridges is another way of saying the flow is lacking longitudinal character - this all probably shows up in the GLAAM as an aside. But which sets off which? The -AO may in fact be the residue in this equation... where something else is pulling the westerlies south and physics then alone creates the blocks. I was just reading a paraphrased article from the HZDR ( German research institute) that found a tidal connection between Jupiter, the Earth, and Venus... which occurs every 11.4 years when their resonance constructively interferes... and this tidally induces magnetic reversals in the top layers of the sun ... Sound familiar? 11 years is the solar cycle - who knows... Maybe ultimately this is all f'n Jovian .. ha That's really all we've been suffering... a -AO spring. If it looks like a duck. Quacks like duck... it's probably a duck. And the GEFs AO has in fact been empirically negative since the ides of March... so it's reasonable to be suspicious of that 'cold signal' as culpable in this lower Maritime trough and N wind bias. I'm sure we'll find around the hemisphere, that there are other -AO correlations being expressed. I noticed Ray has not posted in a quite some time... Understandable - ... but, it really is all his fault. He commiserated that the -NAO would suddenly usurp, and completely butt-violate the spring ... way back in February. Seeing as that is the best prediction he's ever come up with ... we can only do the righteous thing as torch bearing enraged hill people and pull him out for a proper lynching -

yeah... so, if you get those through cable television ... ( which, not saying you 'do' just sayn') get out of it. you can get internet service from different providers - you can get satellite internet and it's fine. and via those sources, you stream Hulu sports packages and it's probably better

I guess we're about to retire this thread so .. no guilt in sullying it further. Among my general ambit of friends and spheres there is a growing movement called 'unplugging' ... It's basically, not allowing cable companies to manipulate you into taking your money at the most fundamental level. But, above all ... most of them describe that once you get used to al a carte type servicing such as Hulu and Netflix ...and other techs like Sling TV and so forth, you get all the news and entertainment and informational shows you can handle, and you realize what a scam the whole cable infrastructure really is now. What's funny is the cable companies continue to be skeevy ... leveraging the fact that few people don't care or don't have the time to really get around to looking at their hard mail closely enough ... certainly not with a magnifying glass for the fine print ... and or with long enough attention span to decrypt the obfuscating language tactic they use to hide what they are up to... So you get on some sweet 110 buck-a-month deal and find after a year that your somehow 300 in a rears with them. They'll get the message when technologies evolution and fair-competition finally un-rugs them.. The day's here - it's a matter of catching on ... maybe. I mean yeah ...over 10 years ago, cable infrastructure was the hand-cuffed standard ... But in present day there's really no reason for them. I have tech buddies that go further than just unplugging. They set up transient VPNs through international gates, and don't even know if the free everything they end up tapping into from the global "cloud" is bootlegged or not. There's no regulation there ...zippo... much less even awareness. Now that's the dark web. Plus, this is obviously only for people that allow 'television' as a life-style factor, duh. But the point being, the old societal model of entertainment for the masses? That is no longer necessary ... No longer hand-cuffed to that standard - if we choose. Yet we keep the hand-cuffs on while they sap billions off ..well, saps.

Actually ... it really is yeah

I don't know what side of the emotional curve you actually reside ... or who you really are for that matter, but I wouldn't fret it. Where you are right now? ... It is shown via advanced physical modeling in the Astronomy science of large stellar death, that the core ceases fusing heavier elements at the instance iron is created - the reason this happens is because fusing into iron into heavier elements actually takes energy, where as all other elements in the periodic table lighter than iron give energy when fusion take place. At that point, the core no longer is producing enough nuclear pressure to withstand the force of inward crushing gravity, and collapses violently ... into either a neutron star, or... a black hole. The intermediate layers of the star, some 100,000 times denser than rock, recoil outward ...separating themselves from the inner core, and as the shock surfaces the star, those outside witness detonation all at once as a super nova. The fantastic aspect about that process is that it takes ~ 10 hours to go from initial iron sequencing in the core, to the shock wave of the nova exceeding the surface of the stellar body, whereby it accelerates outward at millions of miles per hour. Inside the 10 hours ... the surface of the star actually looks to the outside observer as though nothing out of the ordinary is taking place. No clue that the star is already a corpse .. This cold pattern ... it's that 10 hours ... I'd say a week to ten days from now we're looking at a warm nova in the models. Not sure who 'warm' that means, but... the hemispheric circulation construct is no longer supportive at that time and thus ... pattern change... Given how cool it's been ( save some offset days here and there) ...it's highly likely the new paradigm is warmer look.

Ding dong the witch is dying

Insane lightning

Man… I've been on 95 on the west side of the city where it elevates there and overlooks Newark industrial park many times I can say that must've been an incredible sight with that supercell coming in… Oh wait it's dark ha ha

Continuous lightning on metar... bad ass

Over head

Been a while since it's been a tornado warning in New York City. S side

Let them win their Darwin awards Has there been reports of tornadoes with all those warnings down towards New York City ?

Heh... y'all just don't like rainy days ... It was just perfect three days runnin' ... It's time to rain. Okay, it's chilly up in the higher elevations - woah.. Call 60 minutes.

No warm sector... but, in referencing the NAM, the synoptics offer a better complexion tomorrow and probably the first half of Thursday compared to the discrete products like the MOS/FOUS and so forth. Won't get into the warm sector VIP lounge but should the sun bare a presence at this time of year ...and considering it's not exactly "cold" at 850mb ..it'll may bust at least salvageable - we're in the sun-correction months now.

I was looking at that NAM's 12z thermal profiles over PHL and comparing them to Logan... It's amazing how different that appeal is over the next couple of days. It could be 88/72 down there ... today, tomorrow, and the next day, while Boston struggles to get above 60. Odds are it won't be as bad as the models paint ... maybe. I mean, a splash or two of sun at this time of year, that can bust a MOS gloom by a little. That said, there's a synoptic limit to how much 'better' that means sensible conditions could get too. We still have a hemispherically anchored vortex over the lower Maritime of eastern Canada ... pinned under some sort of quasi- negative NAO ... and the curved flow around the western and southwester regions of that feature - both now and in the means since April - is confluent with the westerlies. This SE ridge now only makes it worse. Overall, again a situation we've seen set up with anomalous frequency this spring. It's tough to argue against that being a real pattern mode when observing repetition and consistency the way we have ... Not that anyone is, just sayn'. Yeah, others have brought this up ..opined. Just re-affirming. It's been a blocky spring ...and early on it appears destined to at least begin as a blocking summer. Every year seems to have a different sort of 'magic week' where you just sort of look up and realize everything's different and there's no turning back. I still don't really sense that's taken place.. nor do I believe it will so long as the fore-mentioned persists. Despite this recent last weekend's sinfully delicious balm we bathed in across all three of the commensurate holiday weekend days. That is almost unheard of, by the way. Invariably, ... Mem Day weekends tend to taint at least part of the way. But racking up three top-6 days, back to back... In a twisted way it for some reason makes perfect sense that in a spring plagued by -NAO blocking vomit, that is the year that scores the whole way. Anyway, the NAM is putting down a significant wet snow event for Meteorological pube distances N of NE/lower Maritimes on this 12z ... I just think the circulation of the planet is sick ( as in 'ill') and this shit really should not be happening in the absence of accelerating geological or extra-geological factors .. But therein is a Pandora's box of philosophical debate as to what qualifies as a geo factor. I mean, it took the planet some 3 billion years to stow all this carbon ... and Humanity, despite all its conceits, is not really separate from this planet as a force. And as such...forcing so much of that stow back into aerosol and whatever forms, in only 500 year, give or take - seemin' kinda risky, huh. Heaving it back into the open reactive environment, ...seems on a some level to be a geological force in its own rite. And yes,... I think these October and May weird cold with precip loading events can somehow physically be causally linked to that disruption.. Here's the insidious aspect of this, though. It's hidden in a lot of ways. We are seeing a cold pattern that's still obvious to ongoing synoptic monitoring, spanning months ( repeating in springs across different years) but the anomalies don't reflect.