Typhoon Tip

Nah if that upper level low decays like that Euro the surface pressure pattern/baroclinicity will normalize ...then what remnants there is becomes a quasi diffused warm frontal slope that transports higher dewpoint warmer air up from the south. It would probably be partly cloudy with higher dewpoints and instability afternoon showers and thunder type of deal… In fact August Bahama blue patterns but it’s not gonna do that before that thing lifts up and just washes out entirely

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yup

From a broader perspective the Euro's is objectively not as bad as all that.. however, this situations leans one's attention too closely into the discrete variations, run-to-run (I wonder...) and that might be effecting opinions. As far as the tropical aspects ... the Euro ( I have personally noticed ) is not a good performer over any Basin on earth, below the 30th parallel, when it comes to purely warm core/barotropic entities. So I compartmentalize that as typical there, and don't let that effect my own judgement on how it may or may not be handling the current shit with the mid latitudes. This cut-off has ginormous sensitivity-related matters. So 300 or 400 km adjustments, W-E, N-S in the 'where' it situates means the difference between 52 F and wet, versus 72 and late May lazing sun very sharply evaporating the edges ... a behavior typical of mid to late spring. It's like CON, NH is 71 F embarrassingly busting MOS, while it is 47 F and raining over Tolland. Anyway, ...by the time the Euro's echo swirl opens up and rejoin the flow.. any gradient it was initially triggering were both too far S, and weakening ( to mention, the higher pressure from the N attenuates), such that it is just a humid transport for New England. That's the gist of what that's showing. Either way, ...I suspect Monday/Tuesday are a cool anomalies, regardless of whether GFS wins in making them particularly wet. Even without the cut-off, there is a huge BD-esque surge of +PP pressing down out of eastern Ontario. That thing would make it cool whether that cut-off misery organized or not. So, try not to focus on the low too much ... It's going to be chilly for a day or two.. A robust surface ridging pressing down from eastern Canada sets up as easterly wind anomaly straight across/from as source of air modulated by the super warm soothing Labrador Current ... yaay! The only way around that is to have that N-stream/confluence up there be wrong too... not really related to the low. So bag Monday and Tuesday as annoyingly cooler than normal ...

Raw NAM numbers off the 00Z have nice weekend days on this run ... I mean that really looks like it’s gonna be 73 and dryer again here in the interior. Logan is going to get butt banged by a pretty potent seabreeze .. mid afternoon. That’ll work its way in but it’ll be several hours of really nice weather before that happens out through the Worcester Hills Sunday the wind is light and variable under mostly sun

It actually originally had that look ... flipping more dramatically so .. but then this rhea low bullied in using oddly weak initial mechanical wave space in ending up with that look, too hint hint.. could be the models are bullying it in - we’ll see. Something is going to be there… I just don’t know where to place it and I also don’t agree that the amplitude has to be correct. I think the models could be overdoing it; we’ve had periodic weaker solutions, and we’re also having trouble with continuity and that includes the euro. I wouldn’t hang anyone’s hat on the euro solution just yet. Either way this features just tainting the hell out of that original signal. If one visualizes it removed .. we have our first heat wave; the whole sensible week is being guided by this thing that just came out of nowhere about four days ago in the guidance

Yeah that’s the one ... came through here about five minutes before them

When that embedded supercell collapsed in Southern Hillsborough County in Southern New Hampshire it came right down through my town and it absolutely leaned the trees over we lost timber it was a very strong outflow 55 mph or more

segways into heat wave set up at 500 mb, too -

Mmm.. give the GGEM credit for collapsing into its own ensemble mean. I expended a goodly dose of wasted energy writing a post this mornign explaining how the operational runs et al were so disparate relative to their ensemble means - this GGEM run fits it mean now.

A little of both .. Theoretically... 180 wind ( due S ..) if it persists for very long will impart cold oceanic influence from shelf waters in the LI Sound and/or south of the Island ... That's the termination of the Lab. current, which ...heh, at this time of year, is quite cold. A SSW wind off the M/A passing over those waters get cryo'ed. Later in the summer...after mid July or so...the surface waters will warm quite a bit in that region ( with a steep thermocline... dangle one's feet sometimes and there's a discerned cold layer lurking just beneath..).. But this early, a S wind will introduced a stable marine influence from the S. Such that a line or cluster of SB CAPE -related on-going convection that attempts to move from it's native instability condition, into this latter region, will thus encounter a loss of those metrics ...and we see the weakening when that occurs. That's "reading" in the sense of education speaking... That said, I've seen on a few times over the years ( also ) when there is a 190 to 200 degree wind direction (~), where that actually may not even reflect a very observable difference in the temperature and dewpoint layout, yet... storms still seemed to just dissipate crossing a virtual line that extends from western Long Island to about EEN - ... roughly. Seems when marginal CAPE is in the area, things get sensitive beneath theoretics ( for lack of better terms...) and storms still sniff out the toxicity of cold ocean and don't wanna play. ha but yeah As an afterthought - one could probably find some reading material on-line related to papered severe events in NE ...that discuss rotating the wind dial. Sometimes our severe happens when there is a west boundary layer wind, and then N flow aloft, such that the directional shear component of the bulk shear total is still positive, but the surface direction is still a land source. I know I have read this in the past...I just can't recall where exactly. We've had severe weather on S flows though... This isn't meant as and absolute mitigator - btw - just discussing some 'conditional limitations' that sometimes apply. We can have those EOF 0 type scud-land spots on low llv LCL higher DP deal in August sometimes... or, a synoptic ripper S/W in June will sometimes EOF 1 rake every so many years. Bottom line, this region of the country doesn't have much wiggle room and is fragile for set ups.

Am aware of the time but I still don't buy it... The regional pressure pattern resists that position, A ... B, the dps are much higher in the 60+ range along and S of their depiction ... which aligns theoretically better. It may be 'diffused' ...and probably is destined to make it that far - maybe... But that slinking look ... where is that coming from? and how is it analysed ? interesting -

oh I'm joking ... It's too bad you're not - You could market it as a free-for-all with low moderation standards for fun and verbalization and recess ... then, have a link/portal into a sistered site that DOES have that serious tact. My guess is the shimmering virtuosity of the 97th percentile would spend ALL their time there too - LOL

WPC's version differs from that considerably ..

If there were any virtuosity in an ideal world, and said world could be our reality ... Brian or whomever agency really owns this gig would tag all posters making drive-by potshot debbie-downer assertions about this failing, and then when/if there is a signal thunderstorm at all in the area, those people are banned for the 12 hours it take to elapse through the event. Then, when it is over, they are allowed to begin posting again. Buuut, this site has aspirations around wealth and we all know what happens when money and morality attempt to share the bed - the bed ends up on fire.

I'm noticing morning scud shreds are moving swiftly ESE here along Rt 2 in northern Mass as of 10: -10:30 AM. That's not conducive to getting a warm front thru this region, considering that observation would argue the flow just off the deck is actually paralleling the orientation of the front - which as of last analysis by WPC, aligns roughly along Rt 2 ... Yet, WPC has evaluated the warm front pretty far N. I'll tell you, it 'feels' summer-like here. Home stations sistered to the Wunder source/netword are all in the 62 to 64 dp, which my experience with those is a standard backyard 2 or 3 F wet bias and that means the DP is probably 60 ... 61.. But, we have not coupled up 70+ with 60 DP so for this year, and what an accomplishment by the way...considering we were collectively astounded at the 55F DP depressions in the region yesterday when it was 73/12! ...anywho... What's also interesting is that the surface isobaric pressure layout by the same WPC source does have a sag over eastern NY/CT ...which are both in the warm sector. So, what the means is there probably is a weak llv gradient that is NW-SE under this warm boundary. That's interesting that a warm front at the surface managed to propagate through that resistance.. huh.

Yeah agree in general. I was just noticing a glaringly obvious ensemble difference(s) across the board. In all three, Euro, GFS and GGEM, their respective ensemble means are vastly different than these individual synoptic handling of that D4 to 7 time frame. You didn't ask but this is for the general reader .. Firstly, we only spend time discussing this piece of shit cut-off nuance that bears absolutely 0 significance to any of our lives, because we collectively suffer a weather-obsession psychosis and are compelled to do so... At least being aware of that, saves one from utter damnation in the hells of insanity. Ha! Secondly, what I suspect - upon carefully evaluating each operational version - is that they are phasing the D3 weak-wave mechanics that initially turns the corner around the Lakes (~) and dives south near Ohio, with what appears to be convective feed-back over-zealous wave propagation out of Texas or thereabouts. The Euro waits to do this infusion near the Mid Atlantic ( and it should be noted...no prior operational runs of these three even attempted this entire scenario), whereas the GFS does so earlier around the western TV region. The GGEM does the same ...where ever in the hell it says it happens, it's doing that weird phasing with what might be faux wave space out of TX just like the other two. The ensemble means, don't do this. As a result, this thing dumps in and fills much faster, as well...the ridge spills over top by mid week with a much different forcing on the weather types and surface features et all by as early as Wednesday. In fact, by late Thursday the EPS has a vestigial wave smear shredding to oblivion SE of the MA in the west Atlantic, while the operational is still whirling -2.5 SD torque menace over the Delmarva ... mm... yeah, that's a vast outlier - too much stress on believability. Thirdly, this is all an operational model continuity break and synoptic forecasting 101 should automatically consider this suspect - which I do... because that wave coming out of TX idea...heh... I think that is getting overly developed and is causing the more sensitive physical processing of the operational versions to then have to favorable wave interference with it. We'll see..

Careful -... the psychology there seems to implicitly mock the setup as though it's cased closed a waste of time and blah blah.. It's not just you...it's the last couple of pages of defensive annoying posts. There'll be a 75 dbz core SC with a hook and funnel rippin down the Mohawk trail at 5pm and all these same people would be hypocritically in gaiety - I get it that this is a social media pass-time, and therefore people can freely express without needing to sound intellectually responsible ... but sometimes, that recess becomes a bit too overwhelming. There is a reason why it is bolded and banged in all the literature, " ..in or AROUND ..." watches, warnings, and special interest regions et al. All that, plus, that above missive shows either a lack of foresight, or... a lack of experience when dealing with New England convection. Convective events almost always turn S early around here, usually earlier than modeled and/or interpreted by offices/agencies that use them, too. Those of us that have lived around here for decades know that tends to occur ... more often than not. It is better for convective enthusiasm if one is on the southern edge of hashing and/or watch designated regions, because of this right-turning behavior. If we wanna get into why the latter takes place...it's probably just dynamic propagation toward the higher CAPE. Which in most situations around this geography...that tends to be toward CT.. Plus, our geography tends to support cool pooling, such that early outflow might aggregate and pool over northern/NE zones from earlier activity, such that when additional clusters come in... they tend to develop and/or track along the southern edge of amorphously defined boundaries that end up along an axis of NYC to PVD (~)... We who've lived around here also know all too-well about the "splitting" lines phenomenon, too; that seems to know where any given observer happens to be watching radar as thought it's an Electron Double-split experiment with vendetta against good intents and purposes... Joking aside splitting lines around one's community seemingly on purpose..heh, is actually probably related to the southern portion propagating toward the better CAPE, while the northern portion is tapping into better S/W mechanics... so each go their separate ways and leaves intior SNE jilted ... that is, for those that need weather phenomenon as an emotional outlet. All of these phenomenon actually means one is proooobably better off along and/or just south of these hashed regions/ and/or designated Watches. Plus, just looking around at the data, I don't see that this is less threatening - myself - below the typical expectation of New England underperformance, anyway. Which that fairly means, we could not get anything and it would not diminish the recognition value and predictive necessity of this scenario.

Fwiw the 00Z NAM was a classic 12z warm thrust with the partial clearing climo that’s a pretty typical behavior in getting the job done around here

Wiz’s nerves are more bi-polar than an EOF5’s radar gate when he has to wait a whole day before a convection setup - Jesus nothing’s changed, dude. It’s a great setup ... probably top percentile that won’t produce anyway just because it’s NE so settle down.

00z NAM looked threatening

I wonder if the belated green-up is playing into this... That's one Two, wonder if we have problems with that warm front ...specially if we dump a rain column into this dry air mass.

It's legit dry man I was toolin' on a 25 mile ride in 73 F and was bone dry when I got back - that's some turbo vaporation there

75! ...got my 40 delta ... that's pretty sick -