Typhoon Tip

you didn't ask but what plagues the western civilities of the world is too much affluence ... the thing that obfuscates ...or obscures that factor is that affluence is still not ubiquitously distributed ... The haves still have disproportionately, above fairness, more than the have nots... that is a fairness issue(s) and tend(s) to be misconstrued as destitution, certainly mediated and pressed that way - but it's a faux read. there is enough resource and access to survivability that the vast majority now has the luxury to turn attention away from levers and donkey health, into ideology's preoccupation and that quickly becomes the new essence to life...thus, an the obsession, and survival is quasi transformed into a life-or-death struggle there.. Some longish words there... but if a carrington event turned off the lights and started truly correcting the population downward despite all efforts to prevent the chaos... like this pandemic will ultimately prove a sensationalized failure... people would begin to sober up real, real fast as to what is important. suddenly that democrat...republican...islamic martian from the planet 'differentthanme' that might be able to feed me if i'm willing to show a modicum of understanding and compromise, suddenly becomes a strangely more attractive offer over some delusion of outrage embraced at a self-righteous indignation rally. people need to be humbled back to something like, 'get real you f'n beef-witted crassulent self-centered assholes'

I think there's some chance that folks may be surprised or even struck by how uncomfortable it may become as the week ages... Scott or someone has been mentioning - I was noting yesterday's heat in the upper MA. NYC and LGA obs were both over 94 F in the Metrowest/Utah source... in fact, 95.4...well enough above the 94 to not be saved by the mantra reliance of celsius rounding game people need to petty invoke to not admit it's hot.. lol. Seriously, that was under the radar 'big heat' down in the MA to NY region that got - thankfully for them ...- interrupted by a huge convective a-bomb that exhausted/normalized... Point being, we have not been in an air mass yet this year - that I can personally recall - where this kind of over-achieving heat is even possible - over SNE's interior climo favored regions.. NW/NNE has... I was just looking at the NAM's 12z FOUS grid for KBOS ( which is Logon at geographical point) and the 60 hour is putting up a 575+ dam hypsometric height, with 850s somewhere between 17.5 and 18.5 C..on a SW wind and critical cloud level RH < 50% ...meaning the antecedence between 2pm and 8pm that late afternoon and early evening had ample sun. The SFC is is 28 C...but, the typical 4C add -in for the bottom 20 mb of compression and slope suggests it's 93 minimum, and with those hypsometric values so high...the DP has to be well over 70 despite whatever the MOS is indicating for either of these two metrics. Now, ...the NAM and it's grid could be wrong... but, that is the snap shot objective interpretation of those numbers... and I can assure you, we have not regionally had that kind of HI ...

Lol, cool - I showed up to the dance hall when the deejay was already gone and the floor was festooned by ribbons and litter ...and the guests had long gone home after the celebration had been interrupted by a brawl and the cops showed up and sent everyone on their way ... I have no idea what went down Just bored -

She's probably antagonistic ? I don't know ... I mean, these are faceless rabble on the internet so everyone is either accidentally ...if not outright, trolling at one point or the other. That said, she didn't put words in your mouth by saying "insulting" - because ... people do not typically characterize others as, purposely antagonistic and/or awful ... unless they feel they were being insulted - so... her assumption there is fair. Otherwise, they would be doing so unprovoked. She didn't put words in your mouth. You were insulted... Now, if you were, focus on that and why -

Heh... her friggin caption says, 'unpopular electric eel in a pool of catfish' - you were warned - lol

I wish "the thread" would be shut down on all of society, frankly. Humans are in more dire need of a reset and forced multi-generation 'humility' reality check than any species since the dinosaurs saw a fireball from the heavens. This 'doom-scrolling' is a manifestation of a psychotropic stimulus addition. The same one in peered sciences, showcased in 60-Minutes, and tapped into and used (manipulation) by portable comms industries et al... It's sick. And in the absence of real corporeal threat to survival ...at a kind of instinctual level, humans fill that devoid sense of threat with virtual hostility - Industrialized media has 0 compunctions about sloping and spinning headlines to keep feeding the addicts, too - ... Meanwhile, you look down your street in both direction and the environment, under foot and in the air and sky, are all quiescent ...and there is no simultaneous realization that it is all a delusion of dystopian horror because the herein reality is merely a subset of a bigger truth ...that shit just doesn't happen - it is being constructed by the humanity within a bubble cinema... - it is all humanity doing it to itself. We're talking about the general scope - obviously down at the individual, case-by-case level, people are endowed with hardships... but that's an evasive argument when comparing to the whole. The bell-curve contains a convenience addling mass Stop it! ...the plug needs to be pulled... the batteries allowed to die. Because the evolution of this technology is not serving good - it is serving satisfaction without connection to work, where is how the psychological emergence of virtuosity is engendered.... Virtuosity decays at the onset of convenience - the easier the satisfaction is realized. And that ( digression in-coming) is also a catch-22 ...and why the very same evolution that supplies this particular species with the wherewithal to achieve convenience ...effectively evolves toward its own demise. Think of it this way ... Teenager A: a rich kid is given the keys to a new car. Teenager B: a 'less fortunate' son/daughter... washes cars, mows lawns ... takes a job bagging groceries at the local supermarket on the weekends spanning however long it takes in sacrifices.The two teenagers end up with the same car... Which teenager is most probably destined to heap said car first? Humanity functions on whole, as a macrocosmic analog of those exact same appreciation modeling/'tendencies.' Human species A is given easy access to survival and entertainment... Human species B works very hard and toils to realize those same advantages... Which one ends up in a heap first. It's all related though ... being given anything...be it free cars, are free access to 'dirty laundry' and drama of unfiltered and un-appropriately analyzed non-categorized information ... it becomes unprincipled because human beings do not intrinsically connect value to anything they are given for free - and the advancing evolution that allows humanity to manipulate its own environment supplies successive generations with satisfaction for free.

That is a really interesting synoptic evolution along the EC days 3 thru roughly day 6 ... you kind of have to be an Aspergery nerd to see it but ...that vestigial faux tropical whirl migrating slowly on up ... for lack of better description, "eats" the heat. There is a quasi EML/SW release plume flooding throughout the midriff Ohio Valley and up through the eastern Lakes, NYS and the ST Lawrence...but, the cyclonic whirl - as per the Euro's evolution - is absorbing the 850 mb thermal layout... You fan see it when animating through the frames. It gets weird looking, because day 6 shows that there is still thermally charged 850 mb thermal air left in the wake of the whirl's passing through, but by then there is more of a transient 500 mb deeper layer trough that sets over the NE quadrant... while that heat is still rattling around underneath it. Never seen a 500 mb trough with so much warm air in the lower troposphere.. That's gotta be unstable for one - That has to be a fantastic heat signal in this particular run cycle by day's 9 and 10 tho.. wow. You have a massive heat release there timed under a super-synoptic scaled hemispheric wave length expansion spreading over just about everywhere S of the 45 N between Colorado and NJ/Mass with hydrostatic depths exceeding 594 dm! Unlimited diurnal potential pretty much ...day time highs are limited only by the fact that we have a main sequence yellow dwarf star and at average orbital distance of 93 million miles... otherwise that'd be hell on Earth if that succeeded... During a Pandemic no less ... where's the Bible

He might be right he should’ve just use a different product to elucidate his point… Like I could give that MJO post more credit but the problem I have with that is it the MJO needs to have gradient to transmit wave forcing from the tropics into the mid latitudes and at this time of year the correlations are weak everywhere so I don’t know if that strongly signals that way we are heading into climo heat tho.

That product Erik Fisher uses would not be persistent heat for us it would cause front aftrt front to blast through ablating the heat south would be hot from Detroit to central New Jersey maybe. In his defense he does say much of the country though so as usual we get left out of the party

We had one a month ago in May like this actually vicious thunderstorm came in from the north west like that ... sent a microburst out across the north side of my town and over towards Westford. This seems to be our MO this year

Suspicious… It came right over my town and with a flanking line structure and other lenticulated aspects along the backed edge at sun set Solid performer with sporadic limb damage around town blinding rain and hail and overlapping lightning

NAM has that next BD fisting Monday

I don’t know if you guys have noticed this but we are ‘tucking’ into the mid Atlantic and New England at synoptic and super synoptic scales much more discernibly than we ever used to ...something that started happening more noticeably over the last 20 years but the last five years it’s really gotten bad. This summer with the tutts formulating over the mid Atlantic really is just a function of that folding at the hemispheric scale fascinating really

He may not if this becomes the new norm Frankly I think that we could be seeing more of this kind of stuff because the Hadley cell expansion I think these cut off “ tutts ” that Brian refers to are more common actually because what’s happening is establishing a broader band of easterly trades across the Atlantic and that is stranding wave components in the interface between the H cell and the lower Farrell interface latitudes

Seasonal trend is certainly important… But I think in this next shot southern areas have a chance to pace. But aside from the fact those scalar products for the time frame would offer comparable or even hotter temperature metro west than N Vermont - wed/thu

Oh ha right. might not have been the best elevation example. Not sure but the point stands

Yeah not a contest here… I’m talking about how to interpret those anomaly products; has nothing to do with comparisons and heat trophies. The other aspect to keep in mind is that an 18°C 850 mb of temperature over Burlington Vermont will not be as hot at the sfc as it would be over Framingham Massachusetts because the latter has a denser air mass at a lower sigma surface/ greater compression

At 850 mb? pay attention plus the question regards not now ... mid range.

You guys may want to associate those 'anomaly' products at 850 mb with the actual temperatures at that level, when comparing NNE to SNE... SNE 850 mb climate may in fact be warmer than NNE, where as the anomalies deviations are relative to the climate over that region - if NNE runs cooler, and both regions have the same 850 mb temperature ...the anomaly will appear greater up N. But the anomaly is not associated with the BL heat potential - the scalar value is...

Kind of interesting this morning... I see this alot, where a synoptic scale frontal passage takes place, and it gets "sort of" confused/mottled in with being a back-door ...but it's technically not. The BD actually comes in as a separate near-trailing phenomenon during this sequencing cool back scenarios, ..and as this satellite loop nicely demos... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined it's a separate entity . These types of BDs are not the same as those that happen alone.

Decent heat wave signal there... and I don't believe that deeper tropospheric mass transport favors NNE necessarily on that ...when blending the Euro with some portion or another of these recent GFS runs.. This 18z GFS version is probably about as hot as this particular model is capable of being ... pretty much day 5.5 through D12 or 13 averages above 17C at 850 ...with episodes around 20... There one day out there with a 582 dm thickness contour closed off from NYC to PWM...with a 99 at ALB and 98 BOS respectively - I'm not sure it confident but it is July.

Yeah that back door is probably a slam dunk given that mid level circulation construct from central to mid latitude Canada down through the Maritimes… Might as well draw the shades and not even look at another weather chart for about seven days if you’re in for the heat and humidity because whatever the sfc pressure pattern is modeled?… if it’s not cold drizzly butt fisting from the northeast toss it That pattern is going to create a mass discontinuity that will slam into the coastal areas east of the appellations and white green mountains 100% of the time. Now if the models are wrong about the governing flow construct ... Put it this way… It’s like you have to correct for more back door front potential and realization given that flow structure where is if the flow flattens up there then we can ease off

That could be a pretty nasty heatwave out there in the extended if that were just to ever so slightly favor more of a polarward transport… Right now it’s really flirting with doing so ... big heat in Chi town either way

yeah...this does appear to be physically transforming into a synoptic type rain ...but it will likely have embedded enhancements and orange lightning ... It's tough though - I'd like to see this thing survive the nocturnal transformation of the ambient tropospheric sounding as it propagates through the eastern Lakes and NYS toward/through dawn.. If so, we get strata rains with embeddeds ... otherwise, the whole thing could be over sold. Either way... no one asked but I like this pattern incoming...Once we sans whatever that is tomorrow, we end up diurnal mid level lapse rates over stranded SBCAPE/Theta-e and we're probably getting cloud photogenics on a daily afternoon/evening diet for days... as far a drought talk I almost never give that much acknowledgment - tomorrow could over produce and we're behind but no drought. We just don't do west -Texas around our geological circumstance -

I remember posting about the increase in Saharan air-layer into the Americas/hemisphere due to HC expansion and the widening jet channel of the easterly trades related to that over the Atlantic Basin ... observable over recent summers several weeks later ... here we are - needs analysis but this historic plume will be interesting to explain why it is happening