Typhoon Tip

Honestly ... ? I started sensing a bit of 'event fatigue' as early as yesterday morning... I figured seeing the actual routine unfold might tune me back in, and it did... admittedly. I was pretty excited to watch the transition this morning. I think we almost have too much access to data this and modeling that... and constant stimuli therein and from and it's a constant siege and just when we could deflate the next model cycles is out ... There's no 'real' down time ? Not like even 10 years ago when the product suites worth a shit were really just the 12 and 00 cycles.. Now, seems you can't take it all in and you have to leave some behind ... then this engagement or other social media? Jesus - 'nough is 'nough. It does in a way put me off to it. I don't see this storm as warranting that sort of attention. This is a typical "seasonal anomaly" - nothing extraordinary... and probably worth some dialogue and fun with the models.. but I probably could have imposed more discipline on my own weather obsession - We'll see where the late afternoon takes us... Seeing 'back edge' rad behavior into SW CT and a pan-wide weakening out toward Orange - may be consolidating this into a stricter central/E deal as we speak. I'm wondering if we'll get some rad pulsation/flairs in bands in said region. Also, where's that slow down the late runs had last night, too - wondering about that but ..heh, I don't wanna even look at a model lol 3" of glob... S... 32.7

This may seem silly and it is admittedly/anecdotal .. but, my wind and ceiling swath are both NE proper here over Ayer and my experience with CCB headed coastals in this region, ...we're usually good for a late rad arc/flaring until the wind really backs 360 or 350 ... That said ... I think Will nailed it that we're missing that crucial tick or two from this ranking more memorably ...It's the right format otherwise -

Our temp fall slammed shut about 1.5 hours back here in Ayer ... Fell from 40 to 32 and change but has been 'frozen' at that 32.5 .. . We have no icicles off any metallic objects and water is dripping - it's seems we are accumulating at nearly the melt rate and have been for the past hour, as vis has been 1/3 or so the whole way and we have 2.25 unchanged. Maybe a dynamic butt kick to plumb that 31.5 clincher but for now..we await that meso band -

Just gazing at Will's rad posts... ... not hard to imagine this thing as really being a rather progressive system this hour - moving right along. Deep? mm .. yeeeeah, but middling so - I mean, considering we've seen some 965ies passing abeam of ACK more than a couple times over the past 5 years... 980 isn't really memorable. But who am I kidding - we dorks remember flurries.. Some of the late guidance runs last night were sort of hinting at a slowdown interval ... I'm wondering if that still transpires ? It'd probably be mid evening ... we see the system hesitating on some of these same products/sat...and maybe the arc CCB 'stinger' and so forth lingers on a bit... 32.4 S ... some swaying in the trees but no timbre cracks yet. 2.25"

Your avatar's name is 'driveways' huh -

You might do well pretty quick.. . That's what happened here - we silver-slush to whitened everything exposed at the same time. Interesting... wasn't differentiating at all between tree, road, car... grass. It all seemed willing to glow and then just be white. 33 F here over an inch... The sound of civility is muting ...atoning to the damping nature of snow filled air. The white noise of humanity is snuffed(ing) rending the only thing audible are those damn beeps of DPW vehicles in reverse... That's how we know we've really crossed the threshold into an actual snow storm as opposed to whatever that was this morning - that "muting" effect. Its getting quiet out there... Trees starting to sway a bit.

1.25" accumulation here in Ayer, Ma 33 F ... Underscoring the point... This is in a valley? It is - ...it is interesting that in this area, we are not really depending upon elevation. Everyone/where else seems to be seeing that but I am not. I drove up to Groton center and across the NE side of town, just over the Littleton line and back into Ayer and home and this whole region was committed to snow as of 1.5 hours ago

No need to do that ... ...go to you car. Enter said vehicle. Observe particle impact behavior upon windows/windshield... If the 'blatting' pattern ends up in 'star' structures - your transition level is probably not that high up and you are close... Rain drops in that phase of early transition will catch your attention as they zip by ...sort of 'glowing' a little bit but ... they may also not be falling quite at the same terminal velocity of straight liquid particulates...

The complexion of this down here even in the valley is starting to look that way, Will - it's interesting ... elevation doesn't "seem" as important as the dynamics for this ... I mean the top-down cooling part of this seems to completed for our region of NE/N Middlesex Co

Okay... it's been a fun progression this morning ... really definitive almost 'staging' to this event. But as of this hour ( 11 am and ticking on ...) we have commenced substantive and more obvious real accumulating. How's the RGEM doing ...lol. You know, in a way we are like "snow storm scatologists" as the event poops out aggregate structures, we sift through them to determine the vitality of "snow" health... Let me tell you something .. it ain't in favor of the pallid RGEM solutions - holy smokes. If anything, this is ahead of schedule and vastly more aggressive than - at least for me, admittedly ... - my own interpretation of how this event would unfold. Right now it is 33 F here, with uniform small to mid -sized aggegates, and everything exposed is/has turned white ... Interestingly, the streets are slushed over and whitening at the same rates as the grass -..kind of interesting. I think the cold rain predawn sapped the streets of lay-over heat and so they were more primed and ready to cryo - Anyway, the snow health of this thing here at 200 foot elevation in the Nashoba Valley is very, very good! The scenery around the land-scape on me geek drive.. it looks like deep winter rather abruptly... It didn't 'flash' in the stricter 'subjective' definition of that sort of phenomenon... but pretty dern close! So quick recap: 7:45 am, straight rain at dawn... 40 F ... One could almost imagine a 'fat' rain drop zipping down here and there and in fact, the particle size was large. 8:45 " , cat pawing/white rain 39 F ... 9:00 " , cat pawing with occasional larger aggregate vestiges 38 F 9:30 " , cat paws, large aggregates more common 37 F 10: " , large aggregates predominate.. but irregular intensity intervals. 37 F 10:30 , massive griddle cake aggregates and secondary aggregate bundles/truly enormous. One particle IS a winter storm warning.... ( jesus) First sign of visibility restriction... 36 F 10:45 , Vis 1/2 mi in pounding thumpers... aggregate and aggregate bundles begin falling slower, ..abruptly, smaller sizes commence 34F Now ... 11:30, vis 1/4 to 1/2 mi, uniform small to mid size aggregates are completely anti RGEM implicating ( heh..)... 1/2" accumulation but uniform cling to everything... 33 F but some networked home stations putting out 31 and 32s within 5 miles so...I think we're getting some thermal lag in a rapidly cooling column type deal... It looks like a heavy snow storm out side, period -

Wow... seemed to have crossed a 'panache' threshold if you will - we have convincing moderate snow now, and the aggregates are even slightly smaller and more uniform.. Ground is slushing and whitening... 35 here ..down 4 in the last hour as this transition really got convincing over the span of time.

I love these quirky observation metrics like this .. but, you can no longer hear whatever is falling outside ... so, we snow

transition complete... 200 ( ~) elevation Nashoba Valley floor here in Ayer and it's all snow - ...but, it's like the type of snow you have to get at 37 - we wait on the 33 .. 34's down 2 last hour -

actually.. .ugh, late wake up time for me ... so just putting the pieces together - I don't believe the fantastic dynamical aspect ( feed-back from hgt falls and all that rigger ) was going to set in until 4 to 6 hours from now... Remembering back to 1992 .. we were not even this successful at big gloppy cat paw blats before that transition swept through ...pretty much anywhere. Those proportions as described back then are essentially correct - it was either raining or snowing - Anyway, I'm thinking despite being nearly 60 over some driveways yesterday, this system is actually a little ahead of 1992 .. .if using that one as the "dynamic model" - interesting.. But, if we are doing this now and we have nearly 12 hours of this thing deepening passed... oy - we should probably have the tinged blue light coming thru most windows regardless of elevation by dusk... no problem I would think - okay - edit, 50/50 here ... giant cotton balls along side cat paws...

Classic ...elevations flipping first. Buddy down around 800' in Auburn is 70/30 giant cotton glops... while here in the Nashoba Valley, I've been 20/80 ( ~) ... cat paws with bigger glunks zipping down here and there along side. Looks like a more gradual flip tendency. Yesterday we had fun in nostalgia over the 1992 flash event where communities went from heavy wind swept rains to white whirling in 30 seconds or less during that infamous storm's winter entrance frames. It was like dad came home and settled the debate ... But I've been edging 30/70 ... 20/80 for over an hour here. Ha, funny how Eskimos are said to have 70 words for snow - it's like figuratively we have 70 words for mixing stages - But, the transition temperature is higher due to the top --> down cooling of the column. I can look at the sky and just make out the large aggregate melt level as it moves by, while giant cat paw white rain globs survived and accompany the other victimes down here on the ground ( Actually at the moment I'd say it's the first time I've gone 40/60... ). It's 38 here ..I figure the commitment temperature to be right around 36 ... By 34 you've been accumulated and you may even think it's colder than it is... Meanwhile, anyone 1200' is probably 31.9 with transformer booms -

GFS is suspicious of some of that. Last night’s 00z was comical

Your change over temps probably 36 with glop chutes it’s a top —> down cold atmosphere

I’d have to analyze the bigger scope. I’ll look at the NAO aspect in the morning. It could impose but I suspect it’s nuances in capturing. Closing lows tend to correct slower.

Oh I see It’s slowed the exit by 4 to 6 hrs CCB curl pounds us for nother 6” Good Christ. No power

Rolling back my enthusiasm when/if this may all mean getting into power outages that last very long... and to that 4 hours is my cap - my house has no alternate heat source I'd rather the snow go ahead and dry out... or, stay gloppy so that that it 'slips' off and doesn't 'cling'

Sort of... graupel is partially refrozen aggregate pieces ...which is sort of the same thing .. but those under thundersnow/CSI banding...they are larger and really do appeal as though they were suspended by updraft for a period - graupel is snow falling into an incomplete melting layer. The end result may be similar but not quite, and also different formation sequencing - But alas ...many of these process in this crazy business in reality share processing/physics so ... the seams can be rather "cloudy" - haha... puns are free by the way -

oh ...yeah, if we get into elevated instability layers... could be an unusual warmer layer at 700 with feeding convection all over top a shallower growth region.. weird action... In early January 1994 we had a column like that - not thundering per se...but moderate sleet actually hurt on exposed skin drilling slant wise in wind at 19 F along side a snow growth fall out ...probably a saturated 800 layer with some lift ...but now that I think about it OE was also involved with that. I think we had 1/2 of solid sleet accumulated along with 3 to 5" dry snow over eastern Mass... The best is the Kanasas City thunderstorm at 24F Freezing Rain

I almost wonder ... Sometimes in thunder-snow ... you get these 'pingers' that aren't really clear like sleet, but are mangle aggregated refrozen thumpers along side of the "normal" aggregates. - Its something I routinely noticed when amid the fall column out of a snowing thunderstorm - I'm wondering if it's similar to what you are describing... to being 'in the top half of a CB cloud' ... interesting - like aggregates are getting UVM blasted and caked into clusters - hail seeds if you will...

8th became a long-shot when this one in the near-term became real - The wave spacing was never right ...and we need some help. Some cycles over the last day .. day and a half started hinting to that by slowing down. It's still not impossible, but again ... a long shot. What needs to happens is more short wave ridging ejecting out ahead of the these trough components ... The models all seem to agree in coalescing/phasing or whatever they are doing, into a cohesive structure in the lower MA but without that roll-out ridge ... it's heading out. The system here over the weekend needs to evac on up and out of even the lower Maritimes ... that would be the first step. It's lollygagging upon exit sort of 'absorbs' the ridge ejecta ... and that feeds back on keeping this next event for the 8th moving more E

yeah... appears as more and more N/stream relays over the U.S./Can border heading over the Lakes region ...we are negotiating more intensity - I don't know/think that's a mere coincidence ... but, we're also pretty sightly into a consensus here at this point and that's/those are probably within noise - Thing is, when we're on the razor of margin ... noise matters. it's 53 F here with tepid warm sun and it smells like late April - ...it almost feels like it is NOT marginal... but we wait to get to marginal, THEN... see what happens... hahahah