Typhoon Tip

You can actually have heat bursts outside of the mountains in all seriousness though - I remember one in April ... 2006 I think it was. They're not as dramatic but they can happen. That would not be taking place in this synoptic scenario ...

I'd say add 3 ... maybe 4 across the board save Falmouth - it's just only past 18z and we typically get that 2nd/tertiary exclamation spike not 'till what ... 4:30-ish ...? Maybe just 2 ... but we're not heading down yet and we're surpassing MOS confidently ...

Lol... yeah, I just thought that would be funny to say ... although - hmm, now that I think about it..it does seem around town here in Ayer that I do cook a tick or two above FIT or BED ... ASH... Maybe not ASH so much... Nashua, not sure what it is about that site but they're a bakery - By the way folks, is there an obs thread for this thing? I'm 91 average at the three home stations within a mile of mi casa ... meanwhile, it's just nicking 90 now at FIT/BED ..etc... I suspect Boston will be 96 and Logan will be 83 until the wind flips at Logan around 4:58 pm when the city grabs ankles and rips what it thinks of using an island in the Harbor to describe Comm Ave. In any case, we have a more active W to WSW breeze rustling trees here ...kicked in right at 90 and the wind feels hot - you know? that special quality under a uncontaminated sky too. This will be an interesting night as the EML inversion really slabs over and we we can't radiate Earth release through a warm layer... I wonder if the wind flips at Logan kidding aside, it pops of 93 or 94 ...then it's 80 or 85 still at midnight... Urban centers and poor families on 3rd floors ftl tonight -

Funny ... the NAM/MET MOS is shaving degrees on the 12z interpolation ...not sure I see that happenin' ... but meh, 97 .. 98 whatever - ...93 at LGA seems pretty bullshitty though

I am "100" percent sure every home station tied into the Wunder' network will be 101 when it is 99 at KBDL/KHFD/KFIT/KBED/KBOS/KASH/KMHT/KPWD ...

60000547325 00191 113008 81332416 That's PHL, 12z NAM FOUS numbers for Monday afternoon... I love that 33C at T1 ...so that could put up 2-meter of 38 C given that WNW wind, BUT... might be difficult to achieve that with that RH2 > 50% though.. Could effect that log-p ... What's funny is LGA and BOS are shy by a couple clicks (30 to 32C) but have critial RH levels at or less than 50% indicating they don't have contamination ( as much...) on this particular run and model, for that same time frame... So, they could actually 2-meter as warm or warmer if they have the 1 to 4pm open sky...

Ah ..okay - so you were being quick and dirty - right ...should not take the banter of the wild-wild-west of the internet to heart ...lol... Yeah, I mean... that sort of discrete analysis is needed blah blah

Tend to agree... Particularly as the summer ages... It's more than half over in climo parlance ... but, insolation dimming is factorable earlier for us than PHL - lol.. but it is... I remember 22 C/850 mb day in 2002 once and we only made 96 F ... The forecast was 101 and heat warnings were banner'ed ... But, from 10:55 am to 1:34 pm a decapitated CB plume was of course ... not modeled from off the shore -front nocturnal nuances of upstate NY, wafts overhead and nope... I remember it being 94 at 10am ...and I'm off to the races in my mind with the old "10 after 10" and "90 by 9" adages ...etc.... Two more clicks is all we could muster for the milk sun... and since the DPs were only low 60s for that one I'm not sure we really verified warning -+22C at 850 ...pedestrian heat. Welcome to "Nuance England"

Question for you... When you guys trace your adiabats and/or use machine interpolation and/or just 'rain-man' it ... do you guess the stop sigma at 1000 mb level... I've come to find that this is insufficient for the 2-meter ( ...kind of an intuitively obvious statement and I know I'm preaching to the choir) ...but, it seems pretty obvious to me also that the lower 20 to 50 mb of the logorithmic slope cannot be addressed that way - if/when one stops at 1000 from 21C/850 elevation ... they will be too cold in "perfect" heating scenarios. I've actually measured this to be true... 21C can easily 2-meter a 100 F on Rt 9 out in Metro West of Boston and city fart 99's to Logan if the wind is right too... DP notwithstanding -

Quick comment on this 07/18/2020 00z operational Euro run ... That D8 is nothing shy of an astoundingly hot layout across everywhere ... W of 80W and S of the 50th parallel, across the CONUS! What does one's snark want to call that ... the largest ubiquitous layout 100 F readings since the late Ordovician ? My god... Pittsburgh to San Francisco is 20 to 28 C at 850 mb ... everywhere But, we notice... one way or the other... the model won't included NE - no shocker there... Anyway, there is a pretty strong signal in all the ensemble means to bulge the heights around Chicago from D6 to 8.5 in there ... I'm watching that. .. because the whispers of the "non-correlating summer teleconnectors" do offer some support for WAR-bridging into that region. But, ...probably owing to the extended time range more so than anything else, ... we see the usual hemispheric dance of first building the ridge nodes 90 to 80W and than immediately pulling/retrograding them back to the perennial N/A base-line that re-situates the ridge over the Rockies... which is code for that could just be losing the signal do to normalization/'beta' correction more than anything else... So we'll have to see where that goes... I'm also a bit leery of the Euro's front ... the GFS for that matter... The latter is understandable - it stretches everything embarrassingly W-E beyond D4's regardless of season, planet or galaxy... so, having 0 physical means to drive a cold front half way across the Atlantic is perfectly a viable solution to that thing... But, the Euro as quick as D4.5 has the flow paralleling the front by late Tuesday and rightfully... stalls the boundary for frontalysis or wobble right through the area ... I could almost see this correcting toward a wash, and having the heat from Sun/Mon settle out to just 90 through Thur before that aforementioned signal might portend another extreme .... perhaps notably related, the Euro did feature a couple few cycles in the lead up to this period that has more persistent heat signaled to 40 N ...

Mmm... I wonder what the model biases are wrt to specifically DP? The Euro DPs on Sunday are a suspiciously dry - just me ... Just a-priori synoptic existentialism ... we end up richer. Plus, academia teaches us that a 588+ DAM hydrostatic scaffolding supports higher hypsometric numbers ... then, compounding, we are already tracking a hypsometric plume that's successfully integrating a SW expulsion/EML kinetic air layer, together with continental biomist as it is ... those 57's of the Euro just come off as suspiciously dry to me... The NAM 'seems' like a better fit? Bit, that said...it could be too wet in its own rights. So as usual ...the art dictates the result ... how much or little does one use which guidance and/or morphology in mind synthesizes the right anticipation... That said... conceptually I'm not sure how we're deriving a hypsometric depth of 578+ dm with only 94 F ... It's like 94/76 or 100/66 ... take a pick - There's got to have some rich R vapor numbers in the ideal gas law lower to upper integral to do that... I can understand that the Euro may just be varying drier... but 57 to 60 over much of PA where it is 72-ish in the other guidance... that seems a little light. In any case the models ..the Euro is drier, no doubt. Where the 3KM NAM has a 68 to 73 DP air mass spread ubiquitously through NYS/PA/NJ/MA/VT/NH ... the Euro is tanning lawns... The NAM version interestingly also reflects the elevations changes rather nicely.. with d-slope regions at the lower end of that range, wavelet to the higher accordingly... It's either more right or high resolution garbage - lol

yeah... right, it's called EMT's ... to cart people off the fairway with eyes rollin' around and white foam oozing out of their trembling cooked skulls...

NAM is putting up dangerous numbers on Sunday. 580 thickness eeesh. 2-meter 98’s ALB and BTV about 95 BOS but that’s likely to even out. Either way 578-580 hypsometric with those kind of temps probably sends concurrent DP over 75 for dangerous HIs

Mesoscale Discussion 1253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Areas affected...much of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379... Valid 172304Z - 180100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 379. Storms increasing in southwestern portions of the WW will pose a risk for wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An ongoing, mature MCS has evolved across northern portions of the WW this afternoon. The leading edge of this MCS was demarcated by a stout outflow boundary located from near/just south of GFK westward to near N60. A surface trough extended south of N60 to near Y22. South and east of these boundaries, steep mid-level lapse rates and 70s F dewpoints were contributing to strong to extreme instability, and the influence of a subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming on the western edge of this pool of instability was contributing to new convective development along the surface trough. Over time, models (including CAMs/WoF and to a lesser extent coarser-grid operational guidance) indicate that these storms will grow upscale into forward-propagating linear segments and clusters that will pose a risk for large hail, damaging (perhaps significant) wind gusts, and a tornado or two. WW 380 has been issued south and east of the WW 379 to account for this potential scenario. North of the outflow, convective towers continue to deepen southeast of the Minot vicinity. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and appreciable cloud-bearing shear in the region, large hail is probable despite being rooted above the boundary layer. A couple of storms have developed appreciable mid-level rotational signatures, with should also increase the large hail risk and may contribute to isolated severe wind gusts. This threat should continue for at least a couple more hours. Pending convective trends, temporal extensions of WW 379 may be needed beyond the scheduled 01Z expiration. ..Weatherwiz; American WX Forum affiliate.. 07/17/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 48950191 49099867 49069587 48729519 47689533 47399629 47369785 46839896 46049980 45760116 45680263 45920334 46970329 48470252 48950191

yeah...I know... it's about on par as that 1998, March 31 event... I was up at the UML lab at 3:15 pm and it was 89.4 on the monitor ( locally), but the ASOS at the time had CAR, ME 37 F with a wind gust to 43 mph from NE.... We were like, ummmm -

This below shows an usual 500 mb set up that some how promotes that amount of BD ... which appears at a glance to be disproportionately strong compared - but...this was 1975 ...maybe this was 90% or something...

Then... day and half later there comes the 2nd assault ...but this one goes on to end the heat...

Here was August 1, 1975 ... first attempt at a BD fails and washes out like at the piers and docks of back Bay...

I've looked at those weather charts before yeah... Thing is, when it was ginning up to those hot house potentials ... there was a BD lurking just aching to come down but the height/ridge node bulging in was sort of hold it/biding time... When the heights began to deflate just a little it almost looks like the BD was exceeding the physics ... I almost wonder if the intense heat/buoyancy helped draw it SW...because the confluence axis was way way N of Maine...like really conceptually too far to have driven a boundary that far SW along the Maine Coast. Buut, I guess at 98 and 102 back to back, you sort of don't care how it gets there anymore -heh

Not to steal this "thunder" ( n'yuk n'yuk) but...I would go ahead and extend this risk right through the Lakes .. on into NYS/PA, NE and the upper MA frankly ...given to the fact that the wind is W at 500 mb at an unusually strong velocity along that 588 DAM hydrostatic height by 6 dm either side of that demarcator ... which concomitantly houses a pretty rich hypsometric plume underneath. I mentioned in my heat drafting in the other thread, that the MCS and or MCS/debris would be limiting factors as caveat emptors to heating potential - and still is... Thing is, if it initiates that far west it'll tend to pac-man right of the environmental flow and up S... then we get vil choked and dim sunned out of either interesting weather, heat or convection ...which is the ultimate goal of the butt-bang god controling NE weather ...so...better sacrifice those virgins ...haha

come to think about it ...that'd be a fun geek study to put up the top 20 high temperatures, ranked 1 to 20 ...with the wind direction at the time the temp was taken... Getting really tedious...the average wind in the 6-hours preceding... Then, add DPs - Do Nashua, Logan

yeah...I'm wondering if the winds can go more west in this new run... thing is, at our latitude, it's hard to move 77 legit DPs much over 95... I mean it can happen and has... rarely, but I doubt it was on a 210 wind when it did

Mm... 12z Euro comes in and I may thread that out... if that hasn't already happened.. I just went over the FOUS grid ( NAM ) and 00z Monday has +22 to +24C 850 mb temperature over Logan.... while it is 30 C in the T1 temperature at Albany at 8 f'n pm no less, 31 C at 18z Sunday afternoon... See, some previous solutions had more of a west wind and if that were to say 'correct' that way and that ALB air comes down slope... ooph The thing about that is that the wind is 210 deg at Boston, which is probably picking up some S. Coastal marine contamination... Out in Metrowest that may be west of that diffuse mixed BL and be suffering above MOS guidance given to that thermal compression ... That is a rare 850 layer there and previous NAM runs had a 240 deg wind over eastern Mass ...so maybe/maybe not we get protected... The raw adiabat from a 850 mb tall BL staring at 24 C in 100 F at 1000 sigma so it's probably 102 if maximized at Logan ... So there's got to be something limiting the realization of that potential. It looks like the wind direct because the RH's are all < 50 % ... open sky between noon at 6 pm on Sunday with 850 mb temperature pasing +24C ... 88 at the surface - okay NAM I just wonder if the wind is wrong ... it's 20 degs of dial away from Heat Warning ( probably ...)... interesting.

I was suggesting a thread for if/when the 'historic' nature became more certain? ... seemed higher confidence being inside of D5 in the Euro ...but, this was a very sensy scenario and minor perturbations having bigger impacts on the potential.. i.e., no wiggle room. ...I'm in Brian's camp this morning ... seems more 94 to 97-like ...not sure that's worth a thread. Although, the SW/W EML/thermal air layer ejection is note-worthy. But the atmosphere is fumbling around and f'ing up the hydrostatic/wind circulation medium too much to either sustain it, or purify the heat potential on Sunday now. It'll probably happen now ...watch. Anyway, the overall complexion of this has alleviated some... more of a standard heat wave, but watch for Sunday I guess. The problem is we're right on the westerlies... It's not the best climo synopsis for it - and it's weird. I mean ...590 heights and the westerlies find a way to be outside the ridge?? wtf is happening - Today is a real piece of shit work. Wow - digression in coming... this is what it means to live in this vomit hole east of the Berkshires .... I love winter, but I f'n can't stand this asshole geography in July.... SSE wind packing saturable air east of elevations, while westerly pre-warm frontal slope flow actually negatively feeds back by trying to warm it! It's a persecution complex built right in around here.. lol. Anyway, the inversion protects it from actually getting eroded out of here; so it means we rot in it like a catacomb, eternally... It's almost like San Francisco's famed month "Foggaust" on roids I've seen this many times in the summer here. We get our coldest weather about 10 minutes before the front - metaphorically speaking... but, we could surge almost 15 F overnight when the boundary finally overcomes the geology/topography and mixes down...then, ...rocket to 94 F at ASH-BED-BDL tomorrow by 4 pm for a total 24-hour change of 30 F across the the weakest boundary physically plausible but still could be defined by atmospheric physics ...all because Mt f'um Greylock protects the sludge to the east ... This is the summer version of an ice-storm as weakly analogous? This is that same shit that jams in ahead of a warm front and forces an occluded triple point S of the region in winter, then when the occluded front comes through, you actually get a temp spike in the "cold sector" behind the low... Only we're doing it 30 F warmer up the dial. Right now the WPC analysis shows the front occluded west of Alb... That has to come through ... the NAM had RH2 and RH3 dropping below 60% be 4pm even as far E as KBOS so maybe it sweeps house... my guess is it takes longer...

Everyone in here is a zealot… Dude it doesn’t matter whether in Rhode Island or Maine plus I’m only kidding.. heh