Typhoon Tip

what the hell are you dudes talking about ... moods this and well-adjusted that... What is that - Then, if someone lucid offers and educated opine re the psycho-babble "support group" nature of the 'between the lines' antics in here, they get admonished? I'm just starting to wonder if this isn't a concentrated consortium of weirdos that happen to be in an era where they can find each other using the web. In any case... That is a humid and warm 24 hours in coming tomorrow, with thunder probable ... when obviously to be determined. So, for those that enjoy summery fair... enjoy. We'll see what the pattern does after but it looks ( to me ) like several days of seasonal to perhaps a tick or two above normal ( in other words ...not very well noticeably so) with decent days...

This is really interesting ... tho, excruciatingly tedious. It's a nerd's paradise to follow, but the NAM's synoptic handling of the best perceived warm frontal axis it has slated to set up roughly from just N of Albany NY ...across southern VT/NH to perhaps Portsmouth, tomorrow, is unusually stable across multiple model cycles. I mean ..yeah, blah blah it is the NAM but the Euro's been persistently allowing the warm fropa clear to PSM too. More typically ... a dangling boundary in that particular position ends up down somewhere in the vicinity of NYC. First, I think the local media coverage ( which I happened to spy while running 'mill at the gym last nigh) are too cold on the cool side of that boundary. This particular air mass we are enjoying now ... it is not/was not delivered by way of over-top mass ...like the previous high pressure regions this season. I think that preponderance has them a bit prone to being too cool.. This particular air mass, albeit presently cool, is an under delivery... That means that as the high shifts east, the winds continue to back ...all the way around the dial and what was once a NNW flow becomes NW...W to SW, as opposed to NW then ENE vomit. In other words, we don't have to suffer our geographic unique propensity to lay down GOM slabs and have them stagnate because of an ENE flow out of a retreating high/stymie warm frontal arrivals. This is a sort of rare scenario for us...where the warm front does not encounter that typical front-side resistance ... as much. The DP may be more indicative of where the boundary is ...when it is where it is... heh. Anyway, or... if there is a lead side cloud band and showers... forget the above paragraph. ... In that case, there is a bigger bust potential along the front. HFD with laze faire flag wobbles from the SW would be 86/67 while ASH may be 59/58 ... Either way, any time we have that kind of temperature differential and boundary/SRH in the region .. we gotta wonder about thunder -

Ah hahaha. Dont like the reflection in the mirror huh. Just fuggin with ya

This social media has a genetic heritage in weather-related interests, ... not complicated. So if there's a thunderstorm in Bedford Mass, that doesn't matter because your in N. Ct... dude, is there any awareness at all while you are typing the ...lunatic assertions/reasoning you do? One can only surmise, you do it deliberately... and to that: You are no closer now at degrading the worth of this engagement as you were when you first set out to deride it years ago over at Eastern -

No clouds at 69 at 190' elevation at the terminus of d-slope/katabat is hard to do in June and that's pretty common around down here. Btw folks, for those fed up ... 12z NAM/Euro both suggest a sneaky torridity day .. pretty potent warm frontal passage 06 to 12z on Wednesday - ...heh, have to gauge that. w-boundaries don't typically pass at that time of day due to diurnal decoupling but.. probably skirts through in the morning either way. Impressive warm push Has 25 to 28 C 2-meter implied EWR-HFD-FIT-BED-ASH with ( what I guess ...) would be some under side SRH convection maybe, too... That's like 84/70 with crispies tickling the tropopause ee haw. After that looks like 80 with bubble no trouble ... Weird to cut off a lower Maritime gyre that's starved for cold air but maybe the atmosphere just ran out ...haha. It's like dry heaving at us ...Jesus. Better idea -... just stop. wtf

I'm tellin' 'em ... winter's not over man... we'll let 'em know when it's safe to come out and play

Ultimately ...it doesn't matter. My own hypocrisy is that I'm less aware of it myself ...oh, circa Novie 1 through about Mar 10 ... I like big winters like the best of 'em and I don't really 'want' to read about 90 F days when I'm formulating coastal bombs out of teleconnections that are hitting it hard, while the operatinonal runs aren't yet supporting and trying to demo forecast philosophies for others and instead encounter a seemingly oddly strategically timed antithetic content ... And I've noticed the frequency upticks...like flies buzzing off a disturbed dog turd, right around the time one has posted an impertinent gesture of daring to mention warm air in late May.. Ha... oy. I'm probably naively thinking my readers are either objective ... or reading. Then, the former becomes a 'troll- like' opposing distraction to that over all effort, whether intended to or not. 'Hate' is too strong though. Just umbrage at times. There's a transparency to it all ... exposes one as really just servicing their own therapy ... I have better things to do than be ignored in those times, and or serve as someone's wailing wall either way. But ...it's a choice. One can do something else Also, a goodly part of my assholier-than-thou thing is that I'm just bustin' balls much of the time, btw. No-one is getting any taps on the shoulder for their contribution on the Internet ... that's an earlier shock-and-awe societal adjustment to the advent of the technology that has come and gone. It's just old hat, simply put. Familiarization of social-medias-spheric opining is nothing new. Countless forums have issue fatigued everyone and ad nauseam ... ranging in too many special interest groups than is ultimately very healthy for society already showing signs of fracturing0 by schismatic ideologies...etc, etc... The internet is, most probably, related to why some of that is happening. Anyway, so people don't really care to distill facts from fiction, intellectual talent from rube-ology ... You write the original "To Kill A Mockingbird" transcript and foist it onto the internet and you'd only get "tl;dr"

I'd be happy. I'd take Schadenfreude. I mean ... just knowing that some avatar with the word "snow" couched in it, is suffering no snow. I wouldn't otherwise. In fact, I might even be sympathetic to their season-lorn sorrow. But these same critters, they skulk about the social media of weather... consummately timing their reminders for us all that it's chilly ... just when the models are trying to change the pattern warm. It's that antic, right precisely there that's off-putting. Some do it to troll... for fun..whatever. Some, engage in that because they really have some odd deeper hangup that's keyed into a psyche averse to summer - and we become unwitting buffers for their grief. Either way..no thanks. Every time they do that in the fantasy poetic justice realm, they get docked a 4-6" er (yes I'm aware there's a carnal joke there...)

It's a good thing there is no poetic justice in the 'emoto-guided' weather hobbyist's intents and purposes... Cuz no winter would be the just deserts.

MOS numbers in the low 70s down this way ... Couldn't be more satisfied with this air mass as it's been thoroughly cleansed of smoke contamination. No cloud, June sun, lower humidities... and not cold ... Not really even cool - though yes... when the sun goes down, the dusky air may homage an autumnal appeal. This is a like an etch-n-sketch swipe - for those of us of older generations that know what those are. In this case, we set the stage for synoptic differences. Namely, the 850 mb thermal layout is warmer out there as a canvas ... panning the entire lower Canadian provinces and throughout any of our source regions, much more obviously so than at any other prior evaluation cycle this fledgling warm season. That said, the hemisphere circulation is still, for whatever reason... locked into an inordinately meridional tendency. Even when the combined ensemble mean(s) numerically calculate the tele's as neutral or even positive, this doesn't seem to reflect very well in the dailies of the operational versions, nor those particular individual means within themselves either. I still wonder if/when there is and en masse correction where the two align, but is yet to do so. But here's the thing... despite that, the Euro ( for example ) really doesn't descend the 850 mb much below +10 C throughout its mid and extended range; that, despite the -1 or -2 SD, 500 mb ginormous lower Maritime gyre that still ( imho ) seems to defy large -scaled physical/synoptic arguments ... Be that as it may, seein' as I don't run Navier/Stokes corrective algorithms in my mind so be it. The 00z GFS and some recent runs of the parallel ( FV3') were more agreeable in that regard but whatever. The same circulation synoptically, but a warmer variation of it. That's the mean of the models ... I don't like that either. It seems the hemisphere is in limbo ... We really shouldn't be generating those 500 mb gradients in the geopotential, with 4 or 5 contoured hornet sting upper vortexes that envelop massive geographical expanses. It's interesting that the models are gutting the cold and warming the lower troposphere underneath all that.

This batch of overly warned convection appears to be warm frontal ...Counter intuitive but these cluster do run along warm fronts ..There's a distinct cfropa related linear complex over eastern NY we'll have to contend with ...probably in some diminished form later on given our short-bus convective climate ... Sucks too... just clipped me here at this end of Rt 2... Not five miles S of me the outflow terms and I'm sure it's still near 80 ... I was lookin forward to an evening in open toed shoes, shorts and casual polo ..now it's back to jeans and long sleeve shirt. it's still winter... I'll let you know when the season finally's changed ... rat stinker

If you're on the N-E side of this diffused warm front... you're miserable. If you're on the S-W side, you're in early summer conditions. Those are your two "support group" discussion perspectives... I'm at 79/64 here with coherently different 'smell' to the air, indicative of having succeeded said boundary. This is two hours ago... judging by sat/Davis' obs in the area...it's probably meandered up near MHT or so just guessing...

yeah... despite the GFS, I suspect the same. warmer in general. I like the EPS for now, oscillatory between seasonal warmth/thunder truncated by seasonal cool fronts.

Well hell... complete reversal in the NAO domain handling via the GFS' operational/ overnight. Not sure I buy it, though. For one, it's ensemble mean went the other direction - both the CDC and CPC have the NAO even more positive day's four through twelve-ish. Operational must be a complete outlier if those agency numbers are correct. Over decades in this business, pattern changes can do this at times in individual ensemble members - in this case ... the operational version. Suddenly, regression stonewalls the change like an obdurate Trump supporter. The Euro operational actually broke a bit toward what I was mentioning yesterday ... a bit less troughing intrusion backing/carving S/SW out of the D7/8 Maritime gyre, as well... somewhat less ridging over the Lakes while doing so... Basically, just a less amped variation in both features. No wonder really ... replacing an extended range illustration with something closer to climate isn't a bad recourse, no. The EPS mean has meanwhile morphed into a more progressive period of time overall from D6-10 so... Either way... the pattern is still slated to change, despite the GFS. Who knows exactly what that will be, but it should be warmer in general. Maybe it'll be a temperate form, oscillatory between seasonal warmth/thunder truncated by seasonal cfropas... Gotta say, personal druthers? That's an outstanding improvement. Anything is better than ruining outdoor time with 25 out of 37 days of clouds and measurable. Again, a misery that's sort of underscored in how the actual 'in bucket' amounts are not even that anomalous. We're like regionally less than 2" above normal since January... No, this has been a target face smack spring.

"western" new england is very fortuitously avoiding this cloud contamination. They have a 100 mile by roughly 100 mile sky light they're using to generate some SB CAPE out that way ... Seen this more times than can be counted over the years... where the curse of the Southern New England peninsula pans a cloud deck that appears to be almost be disconnected from weather charts.. Although in this case, there's a definitive near coastal low that's apparently set up this deform band of clouds over eastern regions. I'm not sure looking at various modeling ...that happenstance factor was really modeled too well. I suspect it wasn't? Most forecasts I heard formulated spoke of partial sun during the morning ... which so far is a pretty clear over-assessment. Sky is brightening though...and sat does show some schisms beginning to crack through so perhaps we'll get a murk recovery going.

This may not be a bad assessment based upon the trend since the year 2000 ... Of that ~ 239 months... > 50 % have registered cooler mean temperatures all over southeast Canada and adjust NE U.S., compared to the rest of the globe's on-going back ground warming curve. Therefore, if trend/persistence can be used as any proxy ( which does of course carry some risk ...) odds would seem to favor we'll find a way to do the same this particular June. If one is trying/bucking for a cooler result, it's not a bad place to start having most of your months seemingly pre-ordained to be less than whatever it is going on all around you

Global warming predictions ... from refereed/peer reviewal sources and machines based- environmental problem solving/modeling would not agree with that assessment ...at all. One could certainly flip a coin any given season at hand, as there are less than perennial, intra-seasonal factors ... that can/will at times offset, but scaling the equations, the longer termed solution thermodynamically instructs higher theta-e content will take place in any gaseous medium *aka* the atmosphere, that is thermaldynamically preconditioned to store heat. These are basic thermal dynamics concepts/laws in play. Thus, observing increasing ambient atmosphere water vapor follows logically. however,... before even relying upon those research sources - might wanna rethink that line of sight

actually busted too cold here... It's been an iffy weekend with the smoke contamination ... we've had some insolation stolen -

Well ...there's obviously some subversive troll tactics by some users peppered across recent pages... People don't like summer... and will 'ruin' it for those that do at least excuse imaginable. haha! it's all good... Be that as it may, there are still signs the pattern is slated toward a warmer one toward week two. This has been in the GEFs teleconnectors in a slow trend, and also ... nestled in the suggestive tenor of the operational vacillations et al. These "cues" were not really prevalent in previous weeks...and probably do more at herald a pattern change. The EPS has always been flatter and less invasive into the lower Maritimes with that beady-eyed obsession the Euro has in its extended... which frankly, on this 12z cycle seems to even violate large synoptic wave mechanics in pinning that feature into that region with no over-arcing geographic higher heights.... and a full latitude trough pressing into the Rockies... That flow should be lifting more N through Maine. It does...but waits too long to do so... I feel it's more likely this pattern plays particularly tempting into the Euros native bias for too much vertical trough depth/ridge heights in that range and that's really what we are seeing that. I'd recommend toning down that Maritime trough D 8 ish... and also toning down the ridge height/heat it has on D10 ... A flatter overall adjustment to those features actually is a reasonable fit for the bevy of mass-field balancing/tele's I've seen... Of course, we have to keep in mind that a 'new' pattern comes with some uncertainty...

Interesting choice of words for your context here... There cultural vernacular I've ever been exposed to ... "ole fashioned summer" always meant more in the way of torridity. That's the typical trope in literature and lore ... and nostalgic memory. interesting...

gotta sans the elevation bro' It's 75 down here in the Merrimack Valley so decks are dandy. Can't help ya with 'Squitoes though... We got helicopters down here this year - jesus in fact worse than recent years too. Not sure what's up but merely keying the front door to the house at dusk and they're brazen enough to go for knuckle juice... And they really are huge too -

mmm.. not really the right read but okay - well correction: you mean "sustained" heat, but what does that mean? Ha, for me it means NOT 55 with drizzle... But, it's still a significantly warmer run over all and indicative of a pattern trying to change - which I believe should the more important take away. Therein, ...we don't fairly know how warm or what emerges as it's uncharted water so to speak. The EPS is 12z mean continues to amplify the ridge longitude and latitude as was suspected it would yesterday. So much so that it's stranded this Euro run on a complete island in that time range, ... making its uber deep Maritime trough that extend almost to Bermuda island's latitude very suspect - there's that too.. I don't see how the GEFs 00z mean and the EPS 12z mean can co-exist... Quite probably all just typical noise in pattern change -

To be fair ... the outlook/idea I pushed across the last couple of days, re bona fide pattern change, was predicated NOT on what the 00z GEFs decided to do. Out of nowhere, they start sagging off the NAO anew out there toward week two. Yeah... it's not impossible ... sometimes these pattern changes come in a bit earlier in the runs than in reality. It's like there's some detection in the variable values ... decimal-augmented in the physical equations, so shouldn't be ignored but 'when' becomes secondarily variable. Or, it's a bullshit mean and it will return to the previous dynamic...that too. The other aspect, it could be more of an eastern limb anomaly distribution... in which case, the wave spacing of summer would tend make that less a cooling larger synoptic factor for eastern N/A. Fun stuff... Not big hail and wall clouds and high heat or whatever...but some stuff to check out for fun.

ah I haven't looked very closely at it... But yeah, just off the top of the head, that's a robust negative anomaly boring its way through the field, with equally impressive acceleration in the mid levels toward the end of day ... I just remember that from scanning/clicking through the 00z charts. Although 12z GFS continues that look - Don't need a lot of classical SB CAPE this, that and so forth **if** the mlv lapse rates get very steep ...collocated with jet entrance, can make things work - it's not atypical for how we get it done in this part of the country. Different sort of sounding ... windy bowers and stuff.

Didn't we just post all that information In any case, ...I wonder if NWS MOS' machinery takes into consideration the albedo of smoke in the atmosphere. There's probably some threshold where absorption vs reflection ...where it's ability to impeded solar insolation effects day-time heating, one would think -