Typhoon Tip

It might have been 20 yeah. But “drought” should imply a ‘serious dearth’ extending beyond that range ... to which neither in statistical parlance or spirit are we there. I’d also suggest that hurricanes coming up the coast like ‘38 .. Hazel ... etc, might Even get more rare with an expanded Hadley Cell Just an educated hunch

Mm... I 'might' not be right about this in my memory, but was alive in 1994 and I recall that summer piled on steamy 89.9's ... the aggregates wins I suppose.

I yeah I don't know. it's a theoretically sound question - heh... haven't been paying much attention, just bitching

But it's been doing that a bit often this summer... Any excuse imagined to go two ticks under and it does... And I'm not talking about MOS ..or machine interpolations. I'm talking looking at that raw grid - it was 19 C in the models by 4pm... I dunno maybe it cooled in the now-cast I almost wonder if the cleaner air/lower particulate ozone that's empirically measured since Industry et al slowed down might have something to do with hypsometric collapse - I mean, it doesn't take a lot to cough up a 2 F ...probably not that much energy diffusion physics for 4 either... Just a supposition -

Standard adiabat from 850 mb gets 16C to 90 at the sfc... typically. May have to slope the 2-meter a little, which typically happens when the amosphere isn't cheating like today... I've seen 95 on 17C due to deeper mixing. It was little underdone for the 850s ... if those 19's were right... Seems like today slightly under performed relative to modeling/that mixing depth. It's weird - this is the third time where 17 .. 18+C 'undered' this year. Not sure if it's high cloud timing or wind direction or pixie magic but it's been an oddity. Maybe the boundary layer wasn't that tall.. But 925 mb was like 24 C ...so, hm

west wind my dry things out ... this could be a 99/64 type of deal

Fantastic ... cuz you won't need the A.C. d'day so your neighbors negligence with their hang-over timbre is worthy of a plate of brownies if you could get your oven to work - ...course, you could just bake 'em on the kitchen counter now, huh

Highly unlikely for the obvious dual nature of circumstances: (geophysical reasons + time)/ 2 = butt f*ed for anyone alive ... If the most powerful biological agency for enforcing environmental/systemic change since the emergence of Cynobacterum were to cease said forcing immediately, the environment takes 50 years to rejoin the pre Industrial dynamic ... If said agnecy cuts its industrial "Terra-forming" efforts in half it takes 500 years ... If said agency does nothing, all the model's that said agency creates that predict the stupidity of said agency - instead of just stopping stupidity, they create a billion dollar observation-scientific network ( amazing ) to monitor how stupid they are going "wow' in awe - continue to be right about the impacts, just too slow in their realizations. In other words, speeding toward the cliff is the startlingly apropos metaphor - Of those three, which is more realistically the destiny of the planet, its inhabitants, to wit includes said agency - holy shit! We need this place... I think the logic is pretty clear ... there needs to be something done about all these conspiring, undocumented migrant foreigners stealing all the plebeian jobs, huh ... what idiots... Kidding aside, ... it's just my opinion but it 'seems' to me the best way to overcome the plaguing velocity saturation at mid latitudes, is to have the N-stream become so overpoweringly dominant ...such Feb, 2015, that it sort of "moats" the maelstrom off and leaves a circumvallate enclosed region where you fluff bomb to cold glory over dynamic stem-winders that are moisture starved... That's why we stacked up 120 to 140" of snow in four weeks and lived to tell about it... If we'd done that with 10::1 snow we'd still have not recovered despite the 101 heat tomorrow ... That whole freak show was the most enabling piece of work since a rich kid died of a drug overdose... my god. "Yeah, we totally can get this happen' That's really what happened - but I digress.. I mean I don't think we under in snow vs climate??? I think Will definitely knows that answer to that... But, there is also an unmistakable tendency to leave a lot of points on the table, due to shearing and storm speed/residence. 8 to 10" in blue tinted dawns and it's sunny around 3:30 pm just before sunset has been happening a lot in recent winters... It's changed the nature in which the patterns modulate and entities within that general circulation, therein, also morphology, but I'm not sure it's really showing up in the 'snow-in-bucket' numbers. Interestingly ..one aspect the models of climate change predicted in the 1990s was more so the loss of static stability in climate - well... having 2012 and 2015 in the same five year span is pretty glaring positive test result for extremes, yeah...

Hoping so... I'm hoping we get some boomers circa 3 pm Tuesday to exhaust the heat because it is almost impossible to run five miles and/or bike 25 when it's anything over 88/70 ...Even cycling, no ventilation is sufficient at that threshold. Tomorrow is slam dunk day off - no work out..But, fine - I am at six days so a day off is okay. Timed rather nicely... ! NAM seems sluggish on this 12z though - not that the NAM has much use beyond 30 hours.. But, has that 31 C at T1 still at Logan 00z Wednesday, and with no hourly antecedent QPF in the bucket and zippo (if not subtle rising) pressure change between 18z and that mid evening hour late Tuesday ...these do not exactly hearken to a front cleaning house with any eagerness.

Wait which thread ?

I’m wondering if the front hangs up Tuesday and Wednesday we look at the Euro ...the trough axis stays west

Hot spot/climo spreads could be like 95/76/102/82/99/....midnight low don’t have as much confidence with lows but I don’t see how Monday night doesn’t stay elevated given the numbers.

Just fckng insane the NAM is even warmer Monday night. No less than 27C at T1 with an active breeze flags no decouple nocturnal sear like the old man in the rocking chair reckins. talkin 82 .. 83 at 2am

not convincing, no

yeah, 90 KFIT/KASH and locally around town... D1 of this ...

I don't think we're in a TC drought - per se ... - in New England. Unless this has changed ... I recall reading there's a rough 30 year periodicity for at or > cat 1 threat N of NYC latitude/coast... We had Bob in ' 91? ...plus, a cornucopia of residual threats that might sorta kinda argue for occurrence ( tho lame) via the lesser aggregate. Expectations are constant drama and dystopian or bust, I know ... Lol

You know ... we may also want to point out that by "guidance" we mean MOS/machine shit... I mean, the other stuff I pointed out is technically 'in the guidance' - both the Euro's 00z and this 12z NAM for that matter.

I'm jesus... 583 ?? hello - I keep mental notes on this sort of thing, and this is the 3rd time this year we've seen 580 touched in the hypsometry values in that grid, and that ties us with 2018... then and now, I've never seen that three different times over Logan spanning the prior 30 someodd years I've been engaging with those grid numbers intimately with lotion and a flash-light... Seriously though, and it's only 7/25 ...I'm wonder if I get four times and new personal record. But forget that.. .the Euro was over 22 C ...in fact almost 23.5 C in fractals Monday afternoon, and even went as high at 100 proper in its 2-meter for Tuesday ( interestingly enough....) but is only 96 at Logan Monday... but... I got to think that's correctable if the Euro's overall synopsis is correct in that 18z to 00z time range Monday afternoon. Basically, it seems in concert with the NAM... I just don't know why they are both holding 96 - interesting... May be, but the parametric layout supports 100 to 103 almost slam dunking -

I'm actually pretty astounded by the 12z NAM grid... ( FOUS) depiction for Monday. Seeing it put up hypsometric depths of 583 dm over KBOS/Logan is nothing shy of extraordinary - it may also be the highest I have ever seen that particular metric modeled for that location's geography and climate. The MET/machine numbers appear to be selling Monday short with 94 to 96 F across the breadth of guidance locales over SNE. That 240 to 260 deg wind direction under ceiling sigma RH values well < 50%, off a morning 12z T1 temperature already 26 C ( ...suggesting a low temperature not subtending 82 F - it helps the cross compare units ...) implied at typical warm climate nodes... with 20+ C at 850s over head ... all told, probably sends the 16z to 21z temperatures over hundred without much problem. I mean, Logan approaches 8pm later Monday under processed/mixing 583 dm thickness!! With a T1 to 32 C at both 18z and 00z, ... probably implies it was 34 C ( for a 39 C slope temp) ... at 4 to 6 pm... Paramters mount for memorable heat... after 6 hours of unadulterated open sky sun ... and wind direction pouring out of the city's dragon-anus ...there's no way it's less than 102 F ... circa 5:11 pm that afternoon over Rt 9 in Framingham, downtown cake--bake Boston or up and down I-95... It is also 48 to 60 hours away... so, we probably end up 97n .. once the model fills in the usual taint it can't see at this range... but, that's just the interpretation of that FOUS grid as is

Without some kind of super volcanism or extra terrestrial impact event nobody alive sees below normal decade in the next hundred years

I think crucially this/those vectors ( bold ..) were missing per this last run over with similar 850s ... This is a weird set up out there in that mid range with the Euro... it's really bringing a hydrostratic trough response over the top of almost no hypsometric cooling... It's very bizarre to see 18 to 21 C 850s arcing around the trough circumvallate...if not even creeping very warm air layer inside that curvature the way it is... It's like a hot trough - head scratch

“NW flow event” ?? haha lol. Is that like 6-8” of hail ending as drizzle

CT gets their better performers on either low LCL set ups, or when the shear is rotated around so that it’s WSW in llvs and NW mid... this year has been SSW

Mm.. wonder how these enhanced probability calls for a '38 type redux are rooted... I don't see it based upon super-synoptic hemispheric trends ... not even close. We have a central/mid-latitude CONUS ridge that keeps burgeoning and then sort of doing a hemispheric-scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz tumble-over... evidenced in the counter-balanced tendency to dive the wind field through the Martimes. Proobably need to review a crucial conceptual point about entities in the atmosphere? ... they move with the wind ... What about that above seasonality persistence sends a category 3 cane up abeam the EC headed for deforestation of VT - Now, ... it's not IMpossible to have an anomaly relative to the persistence above ...set up just in time... Shit happens... But, it seems the longitudinal flow/progressivity in the means is both trend, and has planetary super-synoptic scale motivators for being that way... Namely, the expanded HC seems to be expressing this summer... It is making for increased ambient velocities at mid levels and that doesn't really physically support meridian flow structures - like placing a negative hydrostatic anomaly over WV and sucking a cane up toward or into the NY Bite... Just in short, a ridge axis 90 to 80W that is sharply ablating from the NW along and E of 70 ... even though the GFS does so too much... in a lesser variation of the GFS ...still deflects and hooks seaward N of the Del Marva

TD