Typhoon Tip

Gotcha... yeah... and actually, not that you or anyone cares for this opinion but I'm actually quite impressed with this season so far. In fact, if for some quirky reason the 29th comes back to haunt us, and we add? We're killin' it! ...but as is, I'd be happy ending Dec at 19 and change ...( and I bet we get 21 or '2 somehow some way ), we're doing fine. Look, I get it folks. It sucks to time a 9 hour deliberate assault on the one day of year people vest a currier&ives nostalgia around snow and apple cheeks and egg nog and icicles and hot chicks in elf costume ...But I'm lucky in that 2/3rds of my Xmas' have only ever had the hot chicks in elf costumes yeah right... ...I don't carry along expectations for snow on the ground or in the air on that day ...Cutter storms or warm intrusions in the winter are part of life even in New England - it just happens and think of it as a gift, because if you want bigger storms, you have to reset the pattern at some point(s) in time(s).

Screwed lol ... nah, not taking that bate - I will say, if you mean not getting 22" ... I did not get that much- but I got 12.5" which ...you know, when did 12" of snow become some kind of forsaken romance tragedy ...

I disagree with that assessment re La Nina continues to dominate - ... causally? I think the boreal hemispheric circulation is presently passing through, thus, 'mimicking' La Nina and is ephemeral ...in wait of next week when it doesn't yet again look that way, like so many times over the last 50 days. I just feel like there is an agenda to force the perception to lock into an ENSO signal that's not really there - ... just an opinion, and it probably is wrong so chill out. But I have been carefully noting over the last two warm ENSOs,. and the intervening modest cool one, a lack of truer coupling to the ENSO states - this was even noted by papers and NCEP themselves in the NINO discussions during the last warm phase, when it took untl the end of February for said coupling to demo. We have also seen ( anecdotally...) this year on numerous occasions October through early/mid Dec, more times than not the circulation not looking very La Nina like... So, when the writer states, "...continues to dominate..." that leaves me a bit nonplussed -

Great expectations ? I'm at 19.5" of snow here to date, which goes without saying is above normal. Obviously timing is everything... If we'd gale whack the hell outta the region two weeks ago, and then hit that fluffy snow storm tomorrow... tenor changes -

I dunno .. .thing is, I've seen more busts when it comes to 'wind' as an isolated threat metric than I can even keep track of in memory if I cared to even do so .. ugh. Now... admittedly, most HWW that don't materialize are in CAA ... What's funny about that - I've seen some where Warning gusts were met but no warning was issue more times - I think - than a warning wind forecasts have verified. Lol But anyway, of both .. these S gales do seem to stick out in memory as having some impressive canopy leaner wind gusts ...and there is also truth/physics to the notion of SSE winds causing more timbre damage because it's like the environment is not used to that wind direction.. or processed wind flow direction/maintenance

Oceanic SST's are seasonally declining now in the bite waters/ E of Jersey ...I'm not sure that llv jet gets down into the bottom of the sounding if the water temperature is below the WB of the air mass over top. hmm. But hell... there's wind software products and experience so assuredly this has all been considered...

I don't think there's going to be much left outside of driveway sides and curb berms ... This snow is still rather gossamer and flaky. You need some Italian ice to really lock in frozen actual mass - more mass requires more thermal input to change phase, so that is why a moisture dense icier snow pack is 'somewhat' more resistance to this sort of 9 hour siege of fire hosing. Saturation at 52 DPs being pelted along by white noise is likely to do two things.... obliterate all field snow ... roll steam plumes off snow banks...

yeah,.. .that is about as anachronistically out of sync relative to any negative NAO as is fluid mechanically imaginably wrong - So, the course of least resistance is to go ahead and assume there is no -NAO ... An SPV located in western Ontario moving into that location by D10 really can't happen otherwise. I don't know if an easterly biased NAO blocking might open up enough R-wave distribution spacing to allow that kind of exotic anomaly ... It seems that's too much either way - and it may be considering the Euro's depth/height bias beyond D5/6 ... But given to the horrible handling of the NAO ... now going on what 16 years of modeling ... it almost seems easier assume it doesn't exist. I dunno -

hearkens back to my hypothesis in late summer I was posting regarding the faster flows inherently interfering with NAO blocking regimes, too. Seems a nice manifestation of something like that here - The AO mode argues the PV is relaxed and that blocking should evolve... but something is preventing it from doing that. It's like the PV is large, just not weak...

Who has the EPS NAO data ? ...curious how our friends on the other side of the Atlantic screw job are lying ( or not ...) with this particular installment of back-stabbing blocking bullshit - haha... Seriously, though - I'm wonder if the EPS was ever selling what the GEFs have been, and continues to do so. Last night's derivatives are even more concertedly and sloping more negative ... steadily declining down to -1 and change over the next week. And if it makes any sense the "attitude" of that trajectory appears suggestive of locking in that mode? Which is kind of to assume any (-)(+) NAO would ever lock in any mode, just sayn' Anyway, recently I have been intrigued by the relative cyclonic motion between the upper and middle latitudes of the Hemisphere - subsequently, that constructive (positive) wave interference is more favored over destructive (negative). I am baffled to see the operational models figurative ( seemingly literally!) going out of their way to impose destructive interference at all spaces and scales despite that ... But, you know - I admitted there wasn't anything actually on the guidance at the time - although we have been flirting with this Dec 29 thing. About that... the only thing that really limits that from phasing into a major player here is that as the N/stream descends eastern Manitoba up there, and the intermediate stream finish injecting that Pac wave through the Plains ...is the whole scaffolding of the circulation medium over western N/A refuses to ridge more... That is a very important large --> small scale positive feedback that is missing - despite the above concepts... There are different forms of constructive ( destructive ) interference though - the R-wave structure is different than the subsume/ stream harmonics ... It's like we got one but are not getting enough of the other - interesting.

Yeah I geuss I don’t look at it enough. It says 00z 22 so word. still it was doing that

I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before This paranormal ghost model actually succeeds at having a retrograde NAO influence, and a progressive shearing pattern ....simultaneously

This is a classic -NAO signal in the NE

GFS has shown very poor continuity over the last several cycles/days worth of runs wrt to the N. Atlantic Basin air space. I'm not sure I'm seeing a hugely better return from the Euro oper. either. I've seen standard NAOs, then go west, east ...now ( like this 18z run ) so far S based it almost argues not to be really be "in" the NAO domain space enough to really be call anything other than a ...I dunno, a f'n north-based subtropical ridge out along 50 W-40W lon.. This run actually times the N/ stream to subsume and rock New New England wrt to the Dec 29 scenario; but just keeps the phased result too progressive to really clock the region... Owing to it's instead allowing more progression overall to return to the scaffolding of the entire circulation medium. A bit more down stream backward ply/exertion on the field returning, and that would probably do it - Part of the issue with the guidance is a regime change ... they don't usually present accurate aggregate performance... and then trying to manage that, WHILE delicate phasing on a D7 chart?? mm... The AO is still falling ...tho mop-ended, it may wend its way to a -3 SD mode by D10 ...and as it descends, it's overlap domain NAO is being handled improperly and inconsistently. That is 'normal' as an issue for that domains space ( anyway ...) given to model performance and the stochastic nature therein... but, no teleconnector is usually handled exceptionally well when they're in modality - particularly that one! So the AO falling, the NAO on the move, and the PNA showing longitudinal amplitude along a narrow positive mode ... mm ... I see next week as not having an imminent threat on the guidance, but having one because of the 'synergistic' nature ... which, emergent properties, like 'gestalts,' they can't really be measured as a deterministic product. ... Although the slowing of the wave propagation around 60N, whilst the intermediate stream continues to roll west to east underneath is an inherent cyclonic framework for constructive interference. It is in the correction tendencies that is lending here- fascinating actually.. Ah heck... Probably nothing happens, everyone feels smug, and veracity of this gets muted by faux perception - ...perfect!

I think you're all missing the boat on next week personally - never seen such wanton disregard for common/ -textbook theoretic correction needs considering what's going on - but,.. I also think there some good old fashion down home pissed off bad mood controlling the "objective" perspective in here today LOL Yah... 'support group' in full affect - Next week may not parlay ... and of course the "seeeee" parade ...but you'd be wrong - or, right for the wrong reason.

Folks need to 'modulate' for/beyond what the models actually show in hard illustration. What needs and 'can' happen in order for that Dec 29+ situation to be a meaningfully impacting winter complexion is not just within possibility, it is imho favored - sorry... Whether that is Chicago, here...or up toward the Maritime it doesn't/won't change the lead indicators... This is a fast/stretched positive PNA inserting S/intermediate stream S/W procession up underneath a ubiquitously slowed/block tendency in the 55 to 70 N hemisphere. Until that changes, neg head takes are about as useful and dependable as D9 Euro bombs on Cape May. Just my take on things. For winter enthusiasts this is an optimistic period...post Xmas through the first week of January - not changing my position on that and in fact the GEFs derivatives from overnight if anything sweetened the deal... This is wintry profiled mass field bias folks ... your correction vector is not pointing toward grousing ( lol ..) you get my meaning though. Prticularly N of L.I. latitude, and relative to a day 7 lead, that Dec 29th+ could become a historic blizzard and it would not take more than 'giga' motions to get there. Would I forecast that now at this moment? Hell no - but we are simply a model cycle at any point from drooling. Just imho - Caveats...? Sure. ... the EPS was not impressive at 00z to me, showing a definitive trend back into a more progressive wave translation/spacial evolution along the 35th to 50th band from mid Pac to ~ 100 W. That is admittedly not going in the right direction. But, I don't believe that is the whole novel ... and the event potential has chapters going into January. And the obvious ... the mean can wobble and vacillate too - Pro: I still see that the 55 to 70N latitudes have slowed relative to the intermediate polar jet latitudes running underneath at the Hemispheric scope. Yeeeah, we can say that's just the -AO but I'm not so sure the philosophy is true in all cases. Not all modes do this. The mass-fields can split the domain such that (say..) Eurasia/Siberia present the ballast positive(negative) ... making the index more notable in quadrature, and the modulation on the pattern may not reflect as well on this(that) side of the umbrella. This appears to be more systemically oriented ...whole scale, and it is providing a "synergistic" emergence for favoring positive feed-back wave interference between the lower Ferral and polar ambient jet latitudes. That's why we are seeing a propensity in the mid and extended deterministic guidance to do this ...whether it happens or not/meets with verification, but I'm seeing this everywhere, where these N/stream SPV fragments are more commonly inducing a S motion into the back sides of interloping S/stream wave spaces out there in guidance et al... Con: A "harmonic" hemisphere is something/aspect we have been having trouble with in recent years, so notwithstanding .. this appeal is bit of a persistence break as another caveat.

Yeah I don’t know… I think that’s a first in a series of storms are going to probably bring issues across North America in an era fraught with volatility I wouldn’t worry too much about those inverted synoptics like that at this time range -

Ha ha ha oh my god that run is hilarious!… that solution would f’n send a storm induced tidal bore up the Charles river and denude all costal communities right of the face of the planet lol 2000 naut mi of 50 kt sea surface stressing probable sends an order of mag more ISE right into coast then Cat 4 cane, while LA Basin seismograph grad students aren’t sure what their looking at Just Gotta make sure the perfunctory spring tide which always seems to auto magically time on top of those suckers is in play and we’re in business

That’s not retrograding… phased solutions tend to move slow but that things motion is going to slowly move east northeast into the Atlantic if CMC… But none of these solutions are etched in stone obviously

GFS simply doesn’t phase anything. It just has an intermediate stream S/W there ...but also running thru a rotted antecedent air mass ... Whether the air mass is cold or not aside ... Not surprising the GFS is having difficulty in a phasing scenario at this time range given to its typical biases

You’re actually more apt to find that kind of a solution in the spring… Cold air masses modify faster when you get into March for obvious reasons such that the mid-level’s will come down and if you get into one of these phasic atmospheres they tend to run into that predicament where all the cold on the backside coming down with the northern stream

Yeah the icon solution is absolutely what happens when you have no antecedent cold air and all that on the backside is basically an 1888 model fold in

Don’t think this dual stream connection will break East of 70W

I don't know if the GFS ... GEFs are the right personnel for the extended range job in this case. They carry on with progressive bias most of the time. Sometimes it is only nuanced in the 'feel' of their handling. Else, they are outright coherently obviously annoying - that is particularly true with the operational version. As I demoed yesterday, ...we may be on the verge - post Xmas - of an aspect we have not seen in frankly years! That is, a slowing of the W to E propagation of wave spaces at/or/about the 60 to 70th parallels of the N.H. ... whilst the S ( mainly below the 40th ) remains quasi progressive. That achieves two aspects, actually... 1) it pulls the rug out from under the GFS' enabling ... One wonders if we see a worse-off verification tendencies as we get on in time with that period and look forward ...until such time as whole-scale hemispheric progressivity bias resumes... etc. 2) it may not "see" the phasing potential - ...yet, as I type this, the 12z version comes out and subsumes /phases ...not actually too dissimilar what the Euro's cinema gave us on the 12z run yesterday ... It may also be that this is one of those signals, that transcends. ..interesting... I had previewed the post Xmas favorable pattern with this annotation, just to give an example of this expressing in the runs: ... At the time I was using the Euro to step -wise take the reader thru a perceived analog, ...not intending it to be a formulaic outlook; I'm half thinking to fire up that thread, though. Perhaps head it off with this discourse, because this learning tool does couch in it storm system - I probably should have the ballz to come out and say that... This is rooted in other aspects supporting. The strengthening negative AO phase is almost getting out of hand at CPC ( lol ) ... with a mean nearing -3 SD; although mop-ended ...every member stays negative toward and thru week two, with a few errant ( so it seems?) members unlikely to -4 SD! Meanwhile, the PNA teleconnector failed to go negative even by a little, last week. It stayed positive, and over the next ten days to two weeks -worth of outlook at CPC, it oscillates to relative values above 0 SD ... This creates an implied cyclonic motion ( in the relative sense ...) in the mid latitudes that is synergistic favoring constructive wave interference scenarios. You have to think of in outre form, as gestalt - and that there is a virtual positive (negative) for cyclonic (anticyclonic) tendency. Now ... positive. Atmospheric events in real space and time passing thru ...will "tend" to manifest positive (cyclonic) interference. It's not just true here... Europe/Erasi and the WPC all probably have this favorable look.

1978 analog ...subsume potential: I spoke about this yesterday and how the post Xmas period through the first week of January had begun to exhibit a relative stream cyclonic motion between the 60/70 N and 30 to 40 N latitudes, and that this "might" herald this sort of risk... viola! Today, we see this as though the models got that memo! Whether this exactly verifies is obviously remote at this range, but this is just to point out the utter powderkeg that is presented when you have this sort of 'hemispheric phasing'/ multi stream harmonic that is - rarefied these days! - whole scale constructively interfering ... Not something we've seen a lot of in recent seasons... But take a note of the last panel on the right, 1978 compared to the Euro ( which the bottom row represents...) and peer up toward the D. Straight and Greenland... the whole scale quatra hemispheric scope of the N. Atl back through the eastern Seaboard and the Maritime of Canada are like a poor man's plagiarism... pretty amazing actually..