Typhoon Tip

Physics/micro-physical process of phase transition heat release will affix an initially icing scenario toward 32 and change like Will described. Icing events eat their set ups, and when the cold is gone...the icing stops - heh.. true though. They use up their own cold. It's simply a matter of how much cold vs the mass of phase transition, determines the length of icing post the initial condition. What makes protracted icing scenarios earn their coveted "storm" merit badges ( lol ..), is adding sufficiently thermodynamic cooling to the column to offset latent heat. There are two types of icing events - one is in situ, which is what the self-destruction model is above ... The others are dangerous because their gestation revolves around at the planetary wave changes. Will and Eric ( or is it Chris ..can't remember Oceanwx name) hinted at this when they described the 'pulse' or waves of synoptic light to moderate fall rates - that's basically a manifestation of a "pattern" in place that is just ripping separate events through it ...each one is being instructed by said pattern as an overrunning scenario. And ... yup, while all that is happening, it helps wanton malificent storm monger's hopes and dreams to not have the fall rate exceed the accretion rate, or they'll watch a lot of their "ice" fail to ruin the lives they are hoping to see ruined... ( ) . The big ice storm in Orh, 2007 - man the stars actually protected the region as much as delivered that entertaining event, because given what fell in that beast ... I'm willing to bet 2/3rds failed to rime. If that thing had been spread out across three nights and 1 F colder, we'd still be rewiring their infrastructure. I think the 1926 New England ice storm was a unique one, as it was both in situ, but also had large scale features/cold offset arriving ...such as building surface high under the rim of an initially liquid coastal storm - just from the stuff I read. It was like a wet snow to cold rain to icing Nor'easter -

We may be on the verge of more total systemic morphology -type changes ( ...like the CMC's 00z take on matters by et al ) that will emerge as we press thru these next 2 .. 3 cycles. Supposition so..tfwiw, but this flat fast yet highly energetic flow coming off the Pacific is notoriously ( over generations past .. ) problematic for model handling features in space and time. There have been advancements and gap control techniques that are proven useful, ...however, I find it interesting nonetheless that the 00z begins to nose Nino like insert off the Pacific on the 00z intake and the CMC does this. What that guidance - to me - appears to have done is wagered more momentum/potency in the lead wave, and that staggering jet input coming in afterward is weaker... What this does is, the lead wave then has a stronger backside NVA/confluence stream mechanic post bifurcation up there nearing the Lakes, ..and that then causes an increase ( rather abruptly upon all this mess..) of +PP genesis, ..cold BL and more suppression of the polar boundary... But, we noticed the vestigial southern stream ( post said splitting ..) is also considerably ( now ..) weaker as a result ( again ) of placing more emphasis on the leading jets structures as they are feeding over California - in the virtual realm of the CMC mind you.. Long of the short is, the deeper cold, weaker southern stream is no longer adequate to over come suppression ... then, the system/coastal others are noting becomes an entirely new entity closer to the 3rd ...possibly even 4th of January. It should be noted that this sensitivity to jet mechanics relaying off the Pac was one of our bullet points at the onset of this thread - ..and that this whole period of time is needing refinement. I don't have any reason to presume the CMC's modulation/changes are false... But, I do think it is either going to be right, or, it will have to modulate back to the pack.. Which, I still would like to see the latter get the physically realized grid down their throats before raising confidences... The pack still believes the initial mechanics will split - they all do.. and that the norther counter part will deliver an antecedent cold insertion along the upper OV-NE regions... questions remain as to the southern entrails and how they then roll up underneath.. suppression vs powerful and toting stronger WAA... I don't for the record believe the super-synoptic scale tendency for an arm of polar jet arced along the southern tier of the Canadian Shield, will relent as readily as the EPS suggests, just based upon experience here. It may ... these models don't put out "physically impossible" scenarios... I would also note that having R-wave nadirs near the 100 to 110W lon is a problem across N/A for Euro species/trough inserts digging too much. Back when the 29th appeared a player ... I did post that I thought the period of the 27th through the first week of January was interesting - it seems like that happens more often, where an 'original' take sort of comes back to rear a presentation after the intervening din of emergence finally fail to all but mute them... Maybe we're just in the formulation phases -

Some of us walk a tightrope. We appreciate when not fascinate weather phenomenon .. but the power loss aspect loses its appeal in about as much rapidity it took for the lights to flick off when standing knowing pretty much anything other than your next breath is powered by electricity in our method and means of life

Lol ... I kept that brief, too On a PC that's not much - these phone make things seem a lot longer

As this mid to late week has come into a mid range, the previous synopsis of a full latitude trough has apparently succumb to a fast N/stream top heavy flow, and said trough in all guidance has now bifurcated. Complex evolution involving the residual southern stream then rides up into a nascent/model introduced cold insert to 40 N This has sheared the N/ counterpart E across southern Canada and escaping thru the Maritime toward week's end... The back side of this is concomitantly NVA and depending on guidance ...stream confluence is noted. But all guidance now also roll nascent/materializing +PP across Ontario in this wake. That 'growth' in this anticyclone ( I suspect ..) is insidiously important as it likely imposes a bit of cold bust potential due to acceleration of tuck/barrier jet flow/ orientation therein, as the vestigial S aspect of said sheared trough is then rising up the semi-permanent SW Atlan ridge..This feature will pose an overrunning risk as it will ( undoubtedly..) be toting along a respectable theta-e mass ...and due to the morphology of it running up into a confluence, it will 'stretch' in the x-coordinate ... this can manifest in a light to moderate longer duration cold rain/mix/snow ( S-->N) event, or perhaps split into multi wave/pulse even spanng 24 to 36 hours .. This is all speculative due to the fact that although these visions are barrowed from climo and experience... the offending tropospheric wave features are just nosing into the denser more physically realized sonde array this evening an overnight... Seems to be a recurring concern as of late, doesn't it. Prelim slated for refining: - Right now I would say light to moderate event by our storm-climate standards. - I would also correct the GFS 2-m temps down 3-5F N of the boundary ...and don't be afraid to imagine 15 or even 20F temp compression along 10 miles of frontal position in a situation like this. - Appears to me to be 70 or % for advisory ice/snow in CNE with low probability for warning ... 50% for these down as far as mid CT/NW RI, but these headlines probably get headachy due to ice S vs a mix of mangled bullet and snow N.

it might almost be worse than that, in the operational 00z/12z blend of those two cycles ... yeesh. I mean, cutters tend to have back side upslopeCAA tho.. cold advection instability squalls .. It's just maddening to the enthusiast that they have to scrape by on that in wait of the rollout and next warm intrusion. What the Euro is doing reminds me of December 2006 frankly - getting dated at 14 years ago... but that was the year that was in danger of going down as a like an unworldly statistical warm outlier freak winter. I don't think I even saw a snow flurry prior to January 10 that year... It was a weirdly Pacific dominated flow so violently extreme that +30 850 mb temperatures washed over the Canadian shield at times/in plumes and the places like Tower MN failed to registery a 32 F before Xmas... I remember as the satire publication, "The Onion" remarked about the dangerous perils of the punishing Great Lakes winter in defiant mockery over 52 F frostbite sarcasm - ... it was surreal. I don't know... I'm spit ballin' there but the Onion did joke about that winter.. .and it was ongoing unprecedented badness ... Just there was no such thing as winter ... period... on this side of the hemisphere. The AO that autumn, unlike recently ... was NOT in error, and it was putting up two towers to +6 SD!!!! intermediated by a relaxation to +4 in between. Every day was 47 to 62 range for highs until mid January... Then, it all changed yeah..the AO crashed actually in early January and plummeted some 7 SD from +6 to -1 or -2... At first the cold dumped over in Eurasion but the wave number rotated around 10 days later and NP popped the AB phase /-EPO and we started getting cold... I think we snowed at the end of the month and then February made up some ground. I remember almost being disappointed at that point ( almost ) ...because when we got to mid point and it was exotic, it felt like tarnishing a Monet' art work and I wanted the painting to finish that way... I mean christ, if could have only made another month of it - .. .But where the hell was I going .. oh yeah, the Euro and EPS' flow is uncanny similar to that mean look of that Dec 2006. I don't know what or why they are - but I don't have any confidence in them necessarily for now either.

God bless Pivotal for existing ... But, I wish their displays were larger than just southern Canada and the conus adjacent marine - it's too small to gather a toe-hold on the hemispheric feeds and exits and good synoptic reads really need those perspectives - Anyway, the 850 mb EPS from 00z last night .. that's uglyXugly .. ugly*squared - green lawns and budding forsythias - ... yeah, safe to say, given the Euro's vision overall, there is not an interesting signal for Jan 7 - 11 lol... Probably the opposite

Nice signal on the GEF members for the Jan 7 -11 period. Most members carry 'some'thing .. ranging from baroclinic wall to a deep phasing constructs and coastal cryo - I think as soon as the CPC ensemble system rights its self we'll get better confidence in a blocking motif out there into the first half of the month. Recent CPC mean has parted company with the verification indicating it has been vastly too negative going back a week to 10 days with increasing error leading to the present time. In fact, the mean initialized about a whole SD lower than the verification curve in last nights output - ugh... The warm rain on Xmas actually WAS good fit for the AO/NAO ...but anyone CPC -reliant may have been nonplussed.. oops. But, forgetting the indices, the individual GEF members look stormy and it's not a bad look for those needing this excitement.

bold is all that matters seein' as everyone's dyin to know what I think lol. no, but I think the Euro leaning is telling tho.

Trend trend trend

Yeah ... like that Signer that slipped on stage next to Obama back in '13 ... and was completely mimicking how to sign-language for the hearing impaired and of course... since so few in attendance actually need or require that assistance, pretty much the whole press conference went down with this guy 'faking' The one or two deaf people are looking around scratching their head - I guess it would be the equivalent of us hearing this: " [0y89yh because -> AHFDHF when -8-87077- no sire fah;fhhhfd;sdh;f why! " Lol, like, there's some language in there somewhere, you know - man... that's like the funniest thing ever... If the guy wasn't a quack ... I mean was that like a streaker at a ball game. I wonder where that clown came from. It's not that far fetched to imagine a drunk college kid doing that on a goof or dare - hahaha

No one in here is completely objective, obviously. Don't have to delve deeply into any philosophy to see that no human being observing "reality" truly is. We're all perceiving, subsequently then evincing those perceptions along some tolerated spectrum of lesser lucidity. Having mused that, ... this engagement ? Ho my ... it has less to do with "analysis" of weather - but weather is just vehicle for affixing drama .. getting a 'kick' high - and when it is model dependent... It's not real.. artificial. ... short of experiencing that high, this becomes 'group support' - which is the real destination. Perhaps in some way that can be construed as "an analyst" - lol. I see where Scott's coming from in that arena. We've just been dealt a pretty significant 'personal' blow as winter Currier&Ives enthusiasts. He's smart ... he sets his coffee down and looks at some shit from over night and the first thing that pops to mind is, 'oh god here we go' and it pisses him off... Why? Not because someone spiked his 'Nog with vinegar - it's because it's a collective "soft" delusion ... People/J.Q. User and the tenor demos the delusion is being formulated, ...given time, solidification of that delusion into thinking it is real... Chris' pot-shot said it perfectly in snark the other day - and it was funny, because it was essentially true: '...people in here are more interested in a D7 storm on the models than they are seeing snow in air' This was never intended to be what/why these environmental prognostic tools were ever invented - it's an emergent aspect of the Internet era. I mean ..try to imagine your world 20 years ago, if you are old enough to have been cognizant of pre-Internet. But I digress -

That 00z GFS operational surface depiction is NOT struggling to get ice to N NJ and CT/RI ... Folks appear needing/seeking idealized model-positioning of features, but you're rarely going to get that in guidance... Doesn't work that way - and there are numerous ways to get a cold wedged or a "tuck jet" into position, early mid or late system gestation... The only real silver bullet synoptic arrangement there is, is having +PP N whilst a barographic layout featuring clear frontal position W -E S of HFD/PVD either prior to go live time or during for that matter. If you see that... Cold prevails. If waiting on model cycles for perfect 'high farther south', or 'cold front sufficiently cleared the area' first? You're waiting indefinitely ... You just need the tuck jet set up, ...nothing else. Those features, as were in that run cycle .. were all three, a-prior, education, and climo precedenced for generating that phenomenon, and whatever QPF pretty artistry is out there... toss anything that isn't ice and mix between Rt 2/Pike and snow and bee-bees N of that to however distance... and icing outside of urban island or sea shores down to EWR and interior/E of TTN S of the industrial park. Now... of course ... all this is rendered moot if it is proven to be true ... Scott's need to have every possible model since the invention of Lego's proves the only way to get to a wintry solution before the above can even take place... just sayin'

Keep in mind ... The CMC has a boundary layer warm biases at that range. Synoptically that’s going to have a 30 to 35 knot tuck jet funneling East of the White Mountains clear to Hartford Connecticut and that set up no question that’s all ice in the interior there ...as far as Northern New England yeah probably snow and bullets mixed in the northern 1/4 of that shield

Yeah I here you. Thing is… Each model is playing into their own biases right now which is typical of this range right in the middle range right there. The GFS is probably gonna be the first one to latch onto splitting the streams busting open affairs and turning it into a shred mess like this while the euro and Gspot tend to curve all flows in that range, Which tends them to hold these things together longer lifting bombs up into confluence Eu and G hold on too long GFS may bust open the ravioli too quick The head game is at either could be right or somewhere in between usually

Yeah a-heh. No .. if that sets up like that 144 chart ur icing to N NJ

‘ Remember posting that I thought it might do this on the 18 z ; it’s interesting it waited ... but anyway whatever I think that it’s possible this thing just keeps trending into either a flat snow event or some kind of ANA false hope… We may just be passing through the fun cycles bow on our right way to a flat solution I just can’t get over the speedy flow and I don’t know what’s going to slow this down ...really thread the needle this time. That’s is, for now

132 GFS looks interesting at 500 mb ..stronger with that polar jet over south and central and south eastern Canada which makes it a little bit interesting how it’s going to lift that Tennessee valley disturbance into that confluence like that

Neurotics Jan has about the same odds of being above(below) climo in snow

Is that a recent run tho - ...I've only recently caught wind of discussion that it's got better verification scores ( than many think ) ...so of course, that's when my source at Tropical Tits decides stop updating it. Their hung up on Dec 22, 00z

Yeah...no question ( Scott ) it was better oh.. 8 days back. We had the 29th, and it looked good, ..based upon the relative slowing of the 70 N band ...giving the hemisphere an implied cyclonic gist - that's an intrinsic constructive wave interference pattern as a canvas ..blah blah. what happens - ... every cycle since has been further and further from that same complexion. It's like we've seen three patterns: that one... then the shit in between, now there is a new semblance emerging perhaps last night into this morning.. Less conventional or 'mainstay' model types unraveling the multi stream phased look. I tell you one thing that's under the radar in all this.. That big Lakes cut and warm intrusion event over Xmas .. those types of cyclones have a climate signal for preceding -NAOs... It is interesting that the runs 8 days ago seem to suggest one - only to fail.

Lol, I think I've been agreeing with you over the last hour and didn't see your's/anyone else's posts.. I was just commenting that the GFS made a siggy whole scale change ...and I suspect we may be on the verge of just outright changing the landscape of that period of time... Dec 30 - ...I dunno the 4th... and it's not clear to me that whatever happens in there isn't multi staged, too... I could see this getting into a lull between type ordeal - ... These flat +PNAP flows that are fast... Really, the last thing was an anomaly relative to that to be honest. Almost consider this uncharted waters - I'd also encourage the tele user to pay attention to those annotations I made earlier - the AO/NAO are almost unusable presently at CPC

Watch... this 18z run will have that salmon stripe down to interior Mass -

Yeah, the more I look at that GFS... 6 hours sooner with the +PP building into/E ontario and it that air mass does an around and sets up an icing situation into CNE and probably tuck jet climo kicks in -

I thought the GFS actually leaned in favor of less full latitude too...interesting. In fact, if that 500 mb were to construct just a bit more confluence over Ontario, it's OV solution probably ends up underneath at the surface...