Typhoon Tip

Well anyway… It was a fun system here where I am located so no complaints from me Four inches of blue ...got a little threatening there for a little bit around 2 o’clock when it started to get lower visibility and the trees started to sag a bit ... oops, so it cut off early - like I said if you’re a winter enthusiast just be happy it’s not March 15

Okay - I guess I missed something ? anywho for winter enthusiast .. at least this isn’t happening on March 15

Yeah it’s like we’re still in the wrapper around the CCB but I think it’s getting eviscerated by downsloping other land source drying when deeper lift passed away ...other mechanics to consider. But in the past these 320 to 350 direction winds here kill CCB wraparound

Im thinking the last half of this system pretty much just didn’t happen? Certainly happened well shy of those late guidance last night ...they had moderate to heavy snow deep into the evening… interesting. So we were done here by 4:30 or 5 o’clock this evening and we’ve had nothing but mist flurries and drizzle temperatures rising back to 34 ever since. I think I am kind of kicking myself for something I noticed yesterday. And it seems to be playing out here until I get a better explanation... I would say the last 1/3 of QPF from last night’s NAM over Eastern sections was thru a 320° wind. I’ve noticed over the years that the NAM tends to hold onto substantial precipitation way too long when wind backs to the northwest around coastal events. Rad is filled with what looks like probably chaff/virga now. I’ve seen this before it’s like the models think this is heavy D form banding

probably takes some philosophical perspective ...which won't really be fun until 10 years have past .. but, if this had more cold, it may not have even happened... It's not physically impossible that it may have caused the storm to behave differently altogether... like the baroclinic zone might have been displaced 100 mi S and E by a weightier cold, and then the low evolves on the right entrance aspects of the trough and then goes on up and hits D.E.M. ... I mean, we think of these things in terms of "if this had been cold enough" ... and I'm not sure it really works that way.. If we had a steeper colder air mass with this same mid troposphere trajectories, I'm not sure the low develops and so easily jumps to the inside of the wind max axis - this dynamic core in interior mass with light rain in the Berk's speaks volumes in atmospheric dart throwing -

Jesus Christ... y'all are straight up neurotic ... at first hint, how dare it snow less ! lol - I'm sorry... Fill out our comment cards on the way out - 'the french fries were soggy and the waitress was a bitch'

I lived down Washington street toward Winchester Center for a couple of years in the early 2000s... that snow you get there is like showing up at the party after most have left and there's still one or two cold lobster tails left and some chips.. but the gig's over.. Finally, we'd flip... but then it ended.. I don't think that's this time. You'll probably do pretty good there this evening but ...just reading your post reminded me of those exit left-overs -

Confirmed... Met friend down in Auburn said the trees are shedding their snow in massive splats during the last hour of more S- like fall rates. he's 33 stuck like me here... Something like that happened here - ...we seemed to accumulate more proficiently at 35 when we first committed to snow type... hit 2 " in that first 1.5 hours-worth. Then...it snowed like hell for 2 hours ? 2.5" like where did it go ? We are now 3" I am noticing some small icicles formulating at drip sites ...because I am a catastrophic dweeb and look for shit like that.. lol. but it's glooming and cold and darkening so .. can't see this going up. May also be some pancaking with that 7:1 ness

Hi def vis loop looks like a down burst near the Canal area over Cape... I wonder there's some weak 'folding' going on

Funny...I was thinking that exact same thing an hour ago - really simple cookie-cutter reasoning kind of was sufficient, 'if it falls faster than it melts, it snows' lol.. .but yeah -

it's not unprecedented for the outer Cape/ or Islands to clear in these coastal storms. The 700 mb passing ideally for the HFD-CON axis, typically/geometrically favors a dry intrusion to that latitude out there... What'll happen soon is that the low will migrate up toward Boston Light over the outer Harbor, and down there they'll get pounded by a rapidly backed west gale/storm force iso. b wind pulse and probably storm chaff ripped around the backside -

Honestly ... ? I started sensing a bit of 'event fatigue' as early as yesterday morning... I figured seeing the actual routine unfold might tune me back in, and it did... admittedly. I was pretty excited to watch the transition this morning. I think we almost have too much access to data this and modeling that... and constant stimuli therein and from and it's a constant siege and just when we could deflate the next model cycles is out ... There's no 'real' down time ? Not like even 10 years ago when the product suites worth a shit were really just the 12 and 00 cycles.. Now, seems you can't take it all in and you have to leave some behind ... then this engagement or other social media? Jesus - 'nough is 'nough. It does in a way put me off to it. I don't see this storm as warranting that sort of attention. This is a typical "seasonal anomaly" - nothing extraordinary... and probably worth some dialogue and fun with the models.. but I probably could have imposed more discipline on my own weather obsession - We'll see where the late afternoon takes us... Seeing 'back edge' rad behavior into SW CT and a pan-wide weakening out toward Orange - may be consolidating this into a stricter central/E deal as we speak. I'm wondering if we'll get some rad pulsation/flairs in bands in said region. Also, where's that slow down the late runs had last night, too - wondering about that but ..heh, I don't wanna even look at a model lol 3" of glob... S... 32.7

This may seem silly and it is admittedly/anecdotal .. but, my wind and ceiling swath are both NE proper here over Ayer and my experience with CCB headed coastals in this region, ...we're usually good for a late rad arc/flaring until the wind really backs 360 or 350 ... That said ... I think Will nailed it that we're missing that crucial tick or two from this ranking more memorably ...It's the right format otherwise -

Our temp fall slammed shut about 1.5 hours back here in Ayer ... Fell from 40 to 32 and change but has been 'frozen' at that 32.5 .. . We have no icicles off any metallic objects and water is dripping - it's seems we are accumulating at nearly the melt rate and have been for the past hour, as vis has been 1/3 or so the whole way and we have 2.25 unchanged. Maybe a dynamic butt kick to plumb that 31.5 clincher but for now..we await that meso band -

Just gazing at Will's rad posts... ... not hard to imagine this thing as really being a rather progressive system this hour - moving right along. Deep? mm .. yeeeeah, but middling so - I mean, considering we've seen some 965ies passing abeam of ACK more than a couple times over the past 5 years... 980 isn't really memorable. But who am I kidding - we dorks remember flurries.. Some of the late guidance runs last night were sort of hinting at a slowdown interval ... I'm wondering if that still transpires ? It'd probably be mid evening ... we see the system hesitating on some of these same products/sat...and maybe the arc CCB 'stinger' and so forth lingers on a bit... 32.4 S ... some swaying in the trees but no timbre cracks yet. 2.25"

Your avatar's name is 'driveways' huh -

You might do well pretty quick.. . That's what happened here - we silver-slush to whitened everything exposed at the same time. Interesting... wasn't differentiating at all between tree, road, car... grass. It all seemed willing to glow and then just be white. 33 F here over an inch... The sound of civility is muting ...atoning to the damping nature of snow filled air. The white noise of humanity is snuffed(ing) rending the only thing audible are those damn beeps of DPW vehicles in reverse... That's how we know we've really crossed the threshold into an actual snow storm as opposed to whatever that was this morning - that "muting" effect. Its getting quiet out there... Trees starting to sway a bit.

1.25" accumulation here in Ayer, Ma 33 F ... Underscoring the point... This is in a valley? It is - ...it is interesting that in this area, we are not really depending upon elevation. Everyone/where else seems to be seeing that but I am not. I drove up to Groton center and across the NE side of town, just over the Littleton line and back into Ayer and home and this whole region was committed to snow as of 1.5 hours ago

No need to do that ... ...go to you car. Enter said vehicle. Observe particle impact behavior upon windows/windshield... If the 'blatting' pattern ends up in 'star' structures - your transition level is probably not that high up and you are close... Rain drops in that phase of early transition will catch your attention as they zip by ...sort of 'glowing' a little bit but ... they may also not be falling quite at the same terminal velocity of straight liquid particulates...

The complexion of this down here even in the valley is starting to look that way, Will - it's interesting ... elevation doesn't "seem" as important as the dynamics for this ... I mean the top-down cooling part of this seems to completed for our region of NE/N Middlesex Co

Okay... it's been a fun progression this morning ... really definitive almost 'staging' to this event. But as of this hour ( 11 am and ticking on ...) we have commenced substantive and more obvious real accumulating. How's the RGEM doing ...lol. You know, in a way we are like "snow storm scatologists" as the event poops out aggregate structures, we sift through them to determine the vitality of "snow" health... Let me tell you something .. it ain't in favor of the pallid RGEM solutions - holy smokes. If anything, this is ahead of schedule and vastly more aggressive than - at least for me, admittedly ... - my own interpretation of how this event would unfold. Right now it is 33 F here, with uniform small to mid -sized aggegates, and everything exposed is/has turned white ... Interestingly, the streets are slushed over and whitening at the same rates as the grass -..kind of interesting. I think the cold rain predawn sapped the streets of lay-over heat and so they were more primed and ready to cryo - Anyway, the snow health of this thing here at 200 foot elevation in the Nashoba Valley is very, very good! The scenery around the land-scape on me geek drive.. it looks like deep winter rather abruptly... It didn't 'flash' in the stricter 'subjective' definition of that sort of phenomenon... but pretty dern close! So quick recap: 7:45 am, straight rain at dawn... 40 F ... One could almost imagine a 'fat' rain drop zipping down here and there and in fact, the particle size was large. 8:45 " , cat pawing/white rain 39 F ... 9:00 " , cat pawing with occasional larger aggregate vestiges 38 F 9:30 " , cat paws, large aggregates more common 37 F 10: " , large aggregates predominate.. but irregular intensity intervals. 37 F 10:30 , massive griddle cake aggregates and secondary aggregate bundles/truly enormous. One particle IS a winter storm warning.... ( jesus) First sign of visibility restriction... 36 F 10:45 , Vis 1/2 mi in pounding thumpers... aggregate and aggregate bundles begin falling slower, ..abruptly, smaller sizes commence 34F Now ... 11:30, vis 1/4 to 1/2 mi, uniform small to mid size aggregates are completely anti RGEM implicating ( heh..)... 1/2" accumulation but uniform cling to everything... 33 F but some networked home stations putting out 31 and 32s within 5 miles so...I think we're getting some thermal lag in a rapidly cooling column type deal... It looks like a heavy snow storm out side, period -

Wow... seemed to have crossed a 'panache' threshold if you will - we have convincing moderate snow now, and the aggregates are even slightly smaller and more uniform.. Ground is slushing and whitening... 35 here ..down 4 in the last hour as this transition really got convincing over the span of time.

I love these quirky observation metrics like this .. but, you can no longer hear whatever is falling outside ... so, we snow

transition complete... 200 ( ~) elevation Nashoba Valley floor here in Ayer and it's all snow - ...but, it's like the type of snow you have to get at 37 - we wait on the 33 .. 34's down 2 last hour -

actually.. .ugh, late wake up time for me ... so just putting the pieces together - I don't believe the fantastic dynamical aspect ( feed-back from hgt falls and all that rigger ) was going to set in until 4 to 6 hours from now... Remembering back to 1992 .. we were not even this successful at big gloppy cat paw blats before that transition swept through ...pretty much anywhere. Those proportions as described back then are essentially correct - it was either raining or snowing - Anyway, I'm thinking despite being nearly 60 over some driveways yesterday, this system is actually a little ahead of 1992 .. .if using that one as the "dynamic model" - interesting.. But, if we are doing this now and we have nearly 12 hours of this thing deepening passed... oy - we should probably have the tinged blue light coming thru most windows regardless of elevation by dusk... no problem I would think - okay - edit, 50/50 here ... giant cotton balls along side cat paws...