Typhoon Tip

Here's a prediction ... by early Saturday morning SPC will have a Marginal region hashed out for eastern NE - If it comes true ...it'll move third world nations toward revolutionary angst, I know ... but, that GGEM has that cold pool/ML lapsy look now too. That's what we usually see consistent with our 'out of nowhere' pea hailers and 35 mph wind gusts..

lol

And ... yup... GFS arrives warmer looking again ... good luck -

Yup! a friend/Met and I were texting this morning as our respective places of work had audible roar from the rain on the flat roof tops ...but rad at the time was all of like 2-level greens with a few yellow pixels.

it's all about triggers ... Although I've wondered if not fantasized before, stability factoring just gets so absurd the atmosphere spontaneously detonates in the absence of having an identifiable one. ha. just like booom But I've seen CAPEs approach 5 grand do nothing because of thin layers of CIN and zippo convergence underneath... Like -10 dt/dh over top too... A kid launching a bottle rocket should fire something off but nope - Can you 'magine that? Like when a California wild fire gets traced back to a couple of teen agers ...in this case, they're fuggin around with fireworks in a Kansas field and it causes a tornado blow a tunnel through KC -

There's a sneaky convective signal for eastern NE on Saturday afternoon... It's been growing on the NAM since that time frame came into the range. It's still beyond 30 hours in an inherently untrustworthy source buuut... suppose for a minute that real, regional LI's are down -3 and there's ample heating. Unusual on a NNW flow -

I would give serious consideration for the multi-cycle superposition of solar minima in any such research. This is a three-pillar statistical landing ...not too dissimilar to the Maunder of lore. the 11, 22, ... and I think its 300 ( ? ) year curves are timed in the same bed ...starting over the last couple three years and running out to 2025 .. That orgy can give birth to blocking; it is statistically shown to be favored - it's quite possible some of this retrograde tendency between 40 and 70 N is related to that...

mm, no actually the wave-lengths shorten in the summer. I realize that probably stomps a bit on your hypothesis/explanation for whatever it is that looks odd about the flow construct but, theoretically the opposite should happen. It ultimately has to do with torque balancing, but can be explained in numerous ways. In the winter, the ambiet gradient is much steeper between 30N and 60 N ...that's the strengthening of the westerlies velocity that concomitantly results, as well... Fast flow then integrating the corriolis conserves angular momentum in a "stretched" capacity ... by virtue of the c-force being constant in a fluid medium with higher wind speeds; which is why the wave lengths get longer and the R-wave configuration tends to feature fewer identifiable structures (by number) from late October to ..circa early April...

it's true .. this plagued pattern really hasn't verified demonstratively cold... Perhaps subjectively 'cool' and in some regards, yeah... negative ticks show up in the monthlies to date. But by and large, we've had cooler months relative to normals than the last 60 days. it's been about drab more than cold ... as that relates to sun and .S.A.D. haha... but you get my drift. You need it dry and sunny - ish ( at least) to get bike rides, outdoor runs, yard projects, soccer games...etc etc... to not be miserable ventures... all that. what's interesting is there's been some all or nothing days in there. we're on a pretty amazing lucky streak for timing good weekends in that regard. Not much in between sensible weather ... we either get this crap today, or cerulean-cobalt blue skies at 80/44 with sun so unabated fair-skinned types may as well skip the dermatologist and opt for chemo therapy as an assumption .. That vortex can be a mixed blessing I guess

somethin' like that ..yeah. i mean, we all do it in some dimensional way or another or amount or less ... you know, we make a call, or, want a certain sensible weather, or, want to just see certain attributes in the daily charts that get us giddy and failing these, we sort of can't help but filter perceptions to hedge - it's just part of being human. hell, sometimes the hedging pays off because the original call comes back - i think folks remember those more elaborately than the other times when they hedged ... which, unfortunately, is the vaster outcomes. anyway ... but to bring that out and actually sell it? that get's egregious in a hurry. ha

Yeah ...I'm just down Rt poop a piece in Ayer and we have way more of these big fuggers... striped-legged 'black-hawk' munitions 'copters tickling necks and forearms just trying to key the goddamn door the house in the late afternoons. This is a much bigger population ... both by numbers and apparently size? I wonder if this is another in a myriad of under-the-radar species arrivals. Or maybe it's just a favorable year. Probably that. We went a couple years back to back where I don't recall even seeing municipal spraying around town .. the skeeter population was down during that era - maybe those dry springs or something. I dunno but they'll probably bust out the old canisters of human sperm reduction agent soon ..you know it's funny.. I was reading about this odd lack of male births in western societies that been happening over the last 20 years. More and more babies are born female ... Scientist can't explain it. Maybe the reason is something the 'brilliance' of modern chemistry is doing to our environment where we're say ... neutering males of XY chromosomatic zygotes. awesome... dystopia

It can dry out ... but 'heat' ? depends what one means by that ... sun at this time of year like we have been getting on the weekends *( thank god) will do wonders to make it 'warmer' than today will likely turn out ( for example ...) but, I don't see it getting 'hot' any time soon. not with fair observation of what hot is - if one wants to be disingenuous and claim 82 is hot so as to appear right in some ice-pick to the ear socket subjective tedium then that's ur delusion. Have fun with it. but out here in reality, there's nothing hot about the pattern - for now.

Not to rub it in buuut... na na na-na na There's a reason I've been saying not to buy into the heat for next week. And it played out exactly like that too - the 'circular sander' over ~ NF came right back and ground the heat signal right out of New England right on schedule ... all over agin. This is an unrelenting trend folks. Rinse and repeating one, and I strongly suggest that unless the hemispheric mode switches to something new, it's one that will not go away any time soon... And by that, we could certainly be talking about the whole summer - it's happened before.. Something like this took place in the year 2000 ... a season with surplus cool misty days ... stole every warmth. It particularly annoying for those that are entertained by extremes because the previous winter was a complete cluster - and that's what patience rewarded? Basically 18 straight months of drawn shades. Oh, it got warm for one week in early October as an exit insult... 2007 and 2008 were back to back summers where we had this weakness if not L/W axis parked over 80 W; though it kept temps from getting out of control, it did set us up for daily mid level lapse rates and pulse sever chances. I remember mid early mid July in 2008 I think it was... it was 64/62 just before sunset, after a thundery afternoon had the region into rain cooled air. Yet ... somehow there was enough instability to last a super cell that brought nickle hail along a 30 mil swath up astride I-495.. Point is, sometimes these set ups lock in ruin seasons. The winter of 2012 .. same deal going the other direction. And at times when the excitement starved enthusiasts can't really bear it, that when the models seem to know it's time to faux advertise the longing change ... Only to correct suddenly right back to the same look. I'm not prepared to say this whole summer gets eaten and eroded by the vortex of NF ... but, if so, meh. Oh it'll prolly go on and get hotter 'n holy next week ... as though purposefully to smite this very veracious hot take ... Excluding the possibility that there are indeed outre forces at work, I wouldn't be shocked if not only does the heat fail next week, but we comically end up with a couple of those days at 68 instead of the 88 GFSX MOS was selling up through 00z.

GFSX MOS is 8+ on climo Mon-Tue-Wed at most interior sites from NYC to PWM fwiw - that's a significant departure at this range in a climate normalized product so the signal may be pretty bright. Synoptic charts don't seem as robust tho hm I'm hesitant ... mainly because seasonal trend has been down right creative in finding ways to dim these longer lead machine guidance numbers. I've seen upper 80s on D6's more times than I can count and judging by how many upper 80s we've put in the books says something about the success rate there... It's no mystery why that's failing as we've hammered numerous times... We'll see... But I haven't seen any compelling reason why the great rasper sitting over the lower maritimes won't just circular sander those numbers downward for the umpteenth time. I was just noticing the downslope dandy for Saturday and Sunday on GFS operational charts though ... Something in the nearer term to start looking forward too - putting together an impressive string of weekends were at least one of, if not both days were toppers.

Haha lol the atmosphere has a festering case of it between 70W and 50W by roughly 40N to 60N

This persistency appears slated to an 'asymptotic' termination ( to me ) ... It could break the other way toward more longitudinal flow construct and expanded subtropical ridging sending dragon farts across the continent - nothing's impossible in this business ..in fact, stochastic. However, I would really keep the slow pattern death idea in mind/consider it... The models tending to re-gather the Maritime 'rasp' configuration is plausible ... yup. You bet! But let's not over sell it, either. Scott or whomever that was is right... it's still warm, at least "er" ... The look over the next two weeks may also allow brief hotter pulses that break away from the midwest and rumble through with thunder... lot's of summery possibilities there. And yes, cool misty day in between. On the flip side ... not sure why there is this other idea that it's suddenly going very hot this year? It may ... sure. but I also don't see any particular reason why big numbers have to become common place .... particularly when noting the first statement, that all indications and acknowledgement of tenors in both verification and modeling, to date, all really do suggest this terminates very gradually ... Which means at times, cool offsets that of course interfere with any kind of heat persistence. The gradual decline is also showing up in the models ... with the 'frequency' of Maritime changes increasing ... just yet to truly realize. I kind of like the idea of hot August ... Just in deference to that 'slow termination' scheme... seems a good round -about estimation. If you want big numbers and records and all that...July would be better. But ...meh, there's been plenty of 102's in August. There really seems to be some sort of emergence for the greater globular interplay of physical processes with that thing. It is behaving more like a nodal depression results there - think default. Looking at the recent D7 + ranged Euro depictions in the domain between roughly 100W and southern Greenland.. we have to remember the layouts are stereographic projection... That trough is actually reaching W across the NW Atlantic Basin. It seems to be almost absorbing any wave spaces that attempt to disrupt it. .. It's kind of like dealing with a athlete's foot... You use lotion and treat it and it seems to have gone away... but if you don't keep treating it, it comes back. You have to wait two weeks of bombarding treatment even after the symptoms have alleviated and there's no trace, or it will well right back up again. That's what this weird lower Maritime thing seems to be... It just comes back ..but something about the larger scaled hemispheric operation is defaulting that region. interesting -

Everyone can relax and breath again ... Trump formally announced he's running for 2020 ..

hot 18z GFS at 500 mb from D7 way on out there yeah so the GFSX MOS was pumpin' 86 to 91 highs from Sunday through the middle of next week. That's some 6 to 11 over climo for D4+ Not bad... maybe the Euro has legs? time will tell...

I don't trust that Euro... Yeah...it's liable to turn warmer here at some point or the other ...over the next month but the models et al have been demonstrating marked continuity issues. The GEFs teleconnectors have been shifting warm and cold about every three or four days, and the operational version ( GFS ) is always got a complexion opposite compared to whatever they are showing to murk it up even more ... making the entire American cluster almost unusable in my estimation. Meanwhile, the Euro is diving a -2 SD vortex into the GB and refusing to raise eastern N/A heights ... Like, how is that possible ... enough already... It's like we're in summer suffering from spring time model instability - I guess in some sense it's more progressive with the lower Maritime vortex finally ... so that's sort of physically more appealing ... but it's still not enough and now it has a 582 dm ridge N over Greenland so it's moving the vortex out now that it has the block that should anchor it - everything's opposite.

The last two weeks have had 9 days that objectively should be rated in the top 10 - what's the f'n problem I suppose what it really boils down to is people. Everyone in here ( most likely ..) is highly responsive to some varying forms of S.A.D. relative to their personal preference - they let sensible weather get to them if it ain't jivin' with the way they wanna role. Guess I'm preachin' to the quire - But I haven't personally experienced anything that out of the ordinary this spring. I could objectively and empirically say we had near or at historic cloud contamination days in May but ... heh, for me, that's almost hitting par in this anus geography on Earth that is spring. Sunny in April and May? Get f'n real - how long have y'all lived here. wow. I dunno... but if it's 81 and sun, at 49 DP like yesterday and then rains the next day, then goes back to 81/51 or whatever ... that's perfect ratio of watering verdant landscape then bathing it with needed sun... If you want' 90+ weather here... you're expecations are not sound. You may get it.. sure. But, no one sane on the planet that has existential wisdom about New England has the temperature 90 F leap to mind.

I don't know ... this doesn't look un-wet for SNE https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php maybe it dries up before getting here...we'll see

Plus I've noticed a tendency when dealing with the lay - hoi polloi and general enthusiasts and hobbyest, and even some Mets... to kind of get giddy about colors on these granular products. Blue in that context does not mean cold - not that you think so... just in general, that needs to be reminded. Like someone posted the other day, some D6-14 WPC temperature anomaly product with orange and brown positive departures as a trophy foisting for the onset of summer heat ... wrong... duh. F'n thing is only saying a 30 % chance of above normal... that's not anything really... I don't, red is warm - woooo! Those blues out there ? 0 C anomaly is hot ocean. Plus, if that's a running average/adjusted climo comparison, that's hotter at 0C than it was 50 years ago at 0C ... So blue ballz all we want...that's a oceanic basin that is in general neutral positive. I guess it's negative more meaningfully N of the g-string east of New England ...

I guess it does sort of work it's way out toward a solution that looks more physically plausible ... way out there around D 9 ...10 in the EPS but as others have already noted, that's not been very capable of lasting toward any frames < circa 7 days out. By the way, 50 N and the D6 operational Euro has snow levels down to 2,000 feet over the lower Maritimes with a two-stream subsume phased solution that would make many February's blush... That's bombogen there.. as in < 12 mb in 18 hours. While people continue to die in droves in India and Iraq from historic heat no less. Really quite remarkable.

It's rare to see a -2 or even -3 SD L/W axis/quasi-closed vortex carve toward the Great Basin out west and actually ....fail to raise OV heights. They try to rise, but some kind of -NAO domain exertion is anchoring lower heights into the lower Maritimes ...and that is rasping off/acting as though to 'absorb' heights as they try to build NE. I say "some kind" because this is persisting in the absence of much identifiable over-arcing ridge/blocking more typical of -NAO at higher latitudes. The rising NAO in the GEFs is all but totally abandoned at this point ...yet there are still only vague ridging signals among the members. It would appear that weird permanent vortex over NF is drawing the NAO down for it's own virtue. interesting. It's been going on all spring, too ... but across this particular set of mid and extended range charts ( unilaterally ) as of late, they are really honing the effect and making it more coherently defined, where heights fall out west.. and stay fallen out east. . And it's an atypical behavior and design.

What do you get when you super-impose a Maunder Minimum over a Globally warmed atmosphere ?