Typhoon Tip

I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like. PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA. Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts. I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever. Supposition for those that like the pain of headaches: I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too. I hypothesize why.. The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers. It's relaxing, but not 'as much'. In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets. [ enter data to support here that is not merely anecdotal lol ] This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that. Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest is academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months. "When," in this sense means nothing. So, you tend to better definitive wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life (if not partly so).

Didn't fall off here in N Mass as much as the air sniffed like it wanted to... interesting. 57 to 63 is the bell curve from scanning around the hill-folk home stations tied into Wunder'. I see a definitive pattern change on the way. The hemisphere moves away from the anomalous R-wave ridge-trough .. to something- not sure the models/ens means know where to go really. That look out there almost seems like a waiting pattern for a signal to re-emerge, or assert anew either way. Either way, I don't see a longitudinal ridge along and S of 40 N as being very stable. I also find it interesting that some recent operational Euro and GFS are signaling another retrograde warm front event, similar to what transpired once or twice back in June - in both occasions, preceding a WAR retrograde. As an aside: I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like. PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA. Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts. I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever. I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too. I hypothesize why.. The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers. It's relaxing, but not 'as much'. In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets. [ enter data to support here that is not merely anecdotal lol ] This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that. Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest is academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months. "When," in this sense means nothing. So, you tend to better definitive wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life (if not partly so). But that's hypothesis. It's a bit of a subjective-objective marriage there in order to science. We are not PHD legends sitting behind an Earth toned oak desk with a retinue of terrified grad students in a state of default institutional abuse to maintain their grants, just begging for an opportunity to prove it is true ... Besides most marriages fail inside of 5 years anyway LOL. I tell you ...as much as it curls my toe-nails to say this abused ism, 'Imagine if that happened in winter' Ugh I hate the escapism. It's so meaninglessly arbitrary. It's like being in a 20 minute typical summer thunderstorm, and say, gee - imagine ? But in this case the comparison carries more usefulness because, that is an unusually clustered/'instructive looking' curve up there, and probably an unsung or tallied metric, it is one that may have never been 'modeled' to do that before. Man, it'd take Rain Man to track of that sort of thing .. ha! But in early August by an entire ensemble system. Every member

Looking back … it’s been a ‘2 steps ahead (models) 1 step back (verifying)’ getting us to this air mass. As a result it’s taken some 20 days it seems like. Models were routinely over digging between D7 and 10; they inevitably trended flatter. That said the longer-term goal was to succeed in finally eroding heights down in the east. I kind of consider today through the weekend as maybe the nadir. Then will have one more go at summer and see what that entails. Solar max ends on August 8 tho but we did do June, which relatively that may actually be a competitive anomaly.. It feel like I’ve noticed this over the years … summer does tend to come in two waves - if perhaps just anecdotal…

What about June … wasn’t that the hottest June ever or top 3.

If you have viral particulate identifiable through seralogic differentiation, you are positive. Use in content among various media ? doesn't mean shit. Media preys on the 96th % tile nimrod to sell headlines. POSITIVE = cha-ching. Mask = cha-ching via vitriol. They're actually socially engineering you by sowing the seed for the 2ndary and tertiary fall-out sociological flowery headlines. They aren't causing/ed of the pandemic, but they have 0 compunctions of exploiting it with 0 morality. When eventually evolution kicks in and people begin to sense at an instinctive level how none of this will work, and start reclaiming life by simply turning away ... zero headlines.

I suppose this does concern early August so moving it here Trough for this weekend is minoring out some. Has the complexion in both the operational Euro and GFS ( shockingly... ) to really just cease momentum and stop digging. It's interesting. The pattern in the operational models appears to be responding to the multi- guidance complexion of a rising NAO ...more so than that odd looking +PNA spire. Not sure what to make of the latter - it's seemingly historic in proportion in that outlook, heavily clustered too. I wonder if the GEFs calculation ( CPC ) is just wrong and the server needs a reboot - that's just not seemingly possible given the state of the Pacific, nor the climatology this time of year, but we'll see. It seems pretty clear to me that the heat in the west has helped mechanize why we are cool here over the last 20 or so days -. That is feeding back at hemispheric scales and forcing a trough into the Lakes. Basically the heat dome forces the flow SE over the Lakes as a geostrophic balancing/argument... ...which given time, causes heights to rise ( subtly ) and a +NAO response. We see then the activation of the WAR signal in the D7-10 range now - it's really a non-linear large scale wave mechanics in action.

Trough for this weekend is minoring out some, btw. Has the complexion in both the operational Euro and GFS ( shockingly... ) to really just cease momentum and stop digging. It's interesting. The pattern in the operational models appears to be responding to the multi- guidance complexion of a rising NAO ...more so than that odd looking +PNA spire. Not sure what to make of the latter - it's seemingly historic in proportion in that outlook, heavily clustered too. I wonder if the GEFs calculation ( CPC ) is just wrong and the server needs a reboot - that's just not seemingly possible given the state of the Pacific, nor the climatology this time of year, but we'll see. It seems pretty clear to me that the heat in the west has helped mechanize why we are cool here over the last 20 or so days -. That is feeding back at hemispheric scales and forcing a trough into the Lakes. Basically the heat dome forces the flow SE over the Lakes as a geostrophic balancing/argument... ...which given time, causes heights to rise ( subtly ) and a +NAO response. We see then the activation of the WAR signal in the D7-10 range now - it's really a non-linear large scale wave mechanics in action.

I spoke at length about that months and months ago then what happens … it mutates [supposedly ] into an even more potently virulence - Hmmm. Frustrating. Angering. Not a good optic

May be the hand of an archeologist alien one future day

Heh … I said I thought the trough would end up perhaps 20% less … I’m not sure that translates to much support for either side of the DP argument. Thing is this whole modeled construct is just amped enough it could spare 20% and still plunk in an autumn homage in the recent Euro runs. I have noticed the NAM’s hydrostatic hgts are still above 560 ; DPs probably won’t be terribly low or those would have to slip into the mid 550s. That’s only thru early Fri tho. Is there another boundary ?

Ha, right - "we never said the valley's dead. Just that it likes to kill people" Maybe it was a blossom that drew people into the trap -

whatever develops is gonna be haulin' ass

Reminds me... you know, how ever it is or isn't very well known... "death" in Death Valley is sort of a misnomer. Because there are flora species adapted to aridity in such a way as to remain utterly dormant...sometimes for a decade or more, and then when it does rain prodigiously in the valley - albeit rare - the floor explodes in a sea of extravagant wild flower displays. Moreover, there has to be pollen dependent insect biota also activated, otherwise, ...what's the the use of flowers? Basically, dormancy is replaced by transient abuzz of life ...with insects darting too and fro, flowers waving in torrid breezes, and probably ground floor rodentia have entered the valley foor, while birds of prey engage mobius-loops in the skies above, surveying for a rare meal. It may only occur once per decade or longer, but the region does have an ecology.

I think what this pattern tells us is that we can flip the script regardless of time of year. If we were passed the solar max ... ~ Aug 8 ... warm enthusiasts feel ripped off and early abandon. If we got this pattern in early September we'd be clocking early frosts. We may in fact go back and register another WAR- like pattern ...if/and/or some form of western ejection/enmeshed air mass after about 8 .. 9 days. Some semblance of that in the ens means and operational cadence, more or less vague at times. If so, this oddly sloped +PNAP is a memory - but... should be thought of when it tries to poke back in for a late August/Sept visit. I think this CC -related circulation and seasonal prolapse is real. I don't have any conceptual issue with assuming we see early autumnal strikes, followed by unusual warm bounce back ... oscillatory with snow tucked into one of the cold pulses toward the end of 2.5 months. Yup, I said it. Don't worry, it'll by 80 in November at least once.

2013

Just a thought ... 2002 and other fires of smokey lore, were really our backyard geographies. I mean Ontario? c'mon This? Come from across the continent, where from/via passage over and through industry - just wondering if there is some weird binding with industrial aerosol waste mixing in with it then being worked on by UV ... viola. We have a special kind of carcinogenic nox - lol...

I was living in Winchester MA at the time.. I memory that as a very elevated smoke layer. I also recall looping sat and it was a narrow band but ..could be miss-remembering - .. heh, working on 20 years ago. yeah, here it is -

Yeah 'been wondering. Not sure what the return rate is on smoke circumventing the global and choking far away geographies. I remember .. shoot, I wanna say 2003, summer. There were wild fires in Canada that summer and we got stuck in a high troposphere conveyor that brought a lot of smoke down but confined above~ > 20 K elevation. I mean it looked like busted mammata up there under ... 80 F with a dim orb sun. I thought that was impressive. Never on the ground though. I was just thinking about this very same subject an hour ago, when we bottomed out at 2 mi vis in yellow pall under diffused headache blinding obliterating sun shine, just how weird it was how you could smell what burned 2500 miles away. I don't recall that kind of fully integrated over-turning, either.

Hopefully it's I/Q's

Bye-bye permafrost over the NW Territories if that Euro's D9/10 succeeds in 590 dam heights over top +18 C 850s Anything to ruin heat enthusiast summers in the Lakes and NE ... setting off a global Methane outgassing apocalypse ...haha

It doesn't have to be anecdotal either ... We technically were 'supposed' to have entered a multi-decadal -AO osccillatory mode ( meaning that mode is favored ), which happens along a similar well-correlated solar oscillation. It was tipping into the early 2000s and should be falling though 2025 I believe - The negative solar phase/-AO is the historical inference. The accelerated CC/GW is an introduction to that whole thematic arc that has unknown plot elements - that said... that doesn't preclude or abase the fact that going back 300 years worth of re-analysis demos there is an apparent -solar/-AO --> +solar/+AO movement of those curves. And the attribution science appears to link through UV rad flux in stratospheric Ozone... +solar breaks down Ozone, and that limits the chemistry for absorbing planetary warm advection at high lat/altitudes... where by dumping warmth in causes the SW to ignite.d Contrasting ... -solar and weaker UV input leaves Ozone population and Ozone thermal conductivity than absorbs incoming planetary wave decay and away she goes.

Counter intuitive perhaps ... but what we want is a raging +AO It's a warm index mode for mid latitudes, but that's by virtue of the fact that the westerlies are contracted polarward around the hemisphere during +AO phase. This 'bottles' up the cold and allows it promote its self - more so in the autumn and winter of course. But, the sun slope over the N pole being what it is... I am wondering if there is any solar max ( May 8 to to Aug 8 ... plus seasonal time-lag) +AO vs -AO correlation efforts made wrt to cryosphere. IF so, per relative anomaly. I know in winter, +AO --> -AO is how to unload the cold. In other words, the former builds it up... the latter supplies the conveyors during release. It is easier to visualize +AO cold production when above 77 deg latitude it is virtually nocturnal for 3 -6 mo's, than it is to do so when that same region is in virtual day the other times.

Hey Don - if ur around Do you by any chance have the historic PNA values - the notably anomalous periods in history ? I'm curious where the present CPC GEFs may rank for early August:

Something I've noticed lately ... past 10 days or so. Warm day scenarios seem to all be smoke plagued. Cool ones are clear(er). It's probably claiming some of our diurnal max potential? I am not completely sophisticated with smoke-aerosols and their effective thermodynamic micro-physical feed-backs, no - lol. But it seems intuitive that adding material to the atmosphere that has a separate and distinct absorption capacitance ... eventual long-wave radiation aspect to it may have some impact on heating potential. I almost imagine it keep nights slightly elevated, ...similar to 'cloud capping' preventing radiational heating. Or maybe the smoke itself re-radiates long wave rad back to the system. I dunno -...it's not like water vapor physics. That much we know.

For those interested ... we can see it pretty clearly on present sat: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined