Typhoon Tip

That is a fascinating coincidence ...or is it... ? It's wildly differing topically to mention: but...I'm noticing that there is always a tropical entity evacuating out of the lower latitudes of the SW Atl Basin when the models are kinking the the flow and drilling CAA events across SE Canada... It's hard to separate the chicken and the egg but it seems like the there's a super-set of equations that kind of signals favorable tropics prior to the pattern actually modulating into a continental buckle - ...just sayn' lol But yeah... there may in fact be reproducible "quasi reduxes" to this shit -

ah,..sorry guys - sure thx ... admin moving too quickly this morning ftw ! lol

yup! ...I cited these notions too earlier on last eve and how this has 'no margin for error' It's a phasing deal but doing so thru an unusually narrow longitude - interesting... There's actually three entities btw ... The Para G and oper. G are both coherent with Zeta remnants peeling S of LI ... Could bring some IB over the nascent polar front and then we "lull" ( maybe ...) whatever is falling at that time - probably goes to raw mist... But then the N/stream couples and subsumes the S/streams ... and #3 crucially as you said, 'legit cold' loading arrives .. It's hard to even pull a barrier/drain jet out of that synopsis, though there's likely to be 925 mb accelerations around typical topography. But the point is .. with whole region C-NE --> S seeming to wall at once, that signifies a deep-ish layer that means bidness' .. I could see people 44 F in light to moderate rain, then cat pawing at 39 when I see that... start going to parachutes at 37 in that look, shedding T's in a pulse and subtle backing wind direction. As an aside, we're seeing unusual temperature variance either side of ambient polar fronts in recent autumns. < 0 C 850s temps reside where mere 300 naut mi S still supports 80 F ...spanning along vast stretches of the continent .. Autumn extremes are not hugely unusual, but that 'not huge' is becoming 'more usual' in autumns since ~ 2000... 62 F like days with clouds and blase slope sun, and then 37 with cat paws the next day is deceptively non-dramatic and slips under awareness in a modernity that is perhaps too distracting/culturally to think of it as significant .. or perhaps 'jolting' is just becoming too commonplace in itself to take note of it. But the first 30 years of my life, it was not that frequent that mere 24 hourly temp changes needed to be nearing 30 F as frequently as it has in the last 20 years... way more common than it used to be. Even doing so spanning 72 hours.. it's relative to all temporal scales ... increased frequency of larger variance. altho today 'feels' like a step down drab Either way, it's always exciting to cover the season's first snow ..even if it is just in the air.

Oh it’s likely to be a notable TC ... it’s got that tightly coherent nucleus look garland by that pink nausea cold ... dumping ocean sodium into the the lower stat I wonder what the IOH is down there. Prolly gotta dive a half mile to get the cline waters under 80...

I’d still take the Euro at day 4.5 over all others.

Very little margin for error on that at the end of the week… it’s a “ flat wave phase“ for lack of better words… The whole thing between the N/stream and S/stream rejoining the former ... is being pancaked through a very compressed field but these runs ( Euro bites midway as others noted) still trying eek constructive sequence with good cadence .. other run cycles may be a bit more distracted Once again it’s going to come down to what happens in the west with the Heights; first the pattern dumps a quasi-close low into the SW than that feature gets bumped east… And then as it moves through the Mississippi Valley and starts to turn north east thru the Tennessee Valley it all depends on how much the flow tips Northwest over the Great Lakes; if there’s a better post ejection ridge response the N/stream corrects steeply and that’s gonna make all the difference in the world. Note this thing’s been on the chart for for five days I wrote about this and that it had certain hallmarks of being something that shouldn’t be ignored and I still think so what that exactly is going to entail ... we’ll see. Not gonna be shocking with that much cold air burgeoning into Ontario and then filtering/pulled into the circulation as it matures underneath that this would get all the way down at the lower elevations at least into interior southern New England perhaps the second half for synoptic snow in the air gaining some possibility Central NE easier

Word! ...it's pretty much when I grew up as a fantasy Met into an adult pragmatic Met - lol... Before then, the specter of gaining 50 F in 12 hours was just too magnificent to believe... Since then nothing is amazing - geez It was 12 F at 8 am with flurries under very light pellets ... at 8 pm it was 61 on the monitor up at the UML lab ...while white noise turbines straining trees. And as you said, wind-whipped fogs shrouds being yanked off snow banks ... Students were pouring out of dorms to rejoice in the faux nature of the warmth ... energy and love for the loss - I mean..if one is a winter enthusiast. I think I was shaking my head in awe at one moment standing wondering how in the the f that was possible.. Yeah 8 am the next morning I think it was it was like 30 but cold enough to recement- ... Seriously, it was lessen in not being plugged into the the temp on the dial, when there is 0 polar high N of the region.. The high was retreating overnight and abandoned it's own decoupled air mass...so the cold was very low level... probably only 2000 feet deep with a hugely positively sloped sounding over top I imagine... But for those of us privy to our local climo ... all you need is " 1 " in polar high N and it disproportionately takes 12 to 18 more hours than even a quantum scale resolution model to admit the the cold is in place ...so, we get a payback on barrier jets and tucking when our moods fixed on keeping the goods and there's like any drain available at all... It just sucks when we get that going in early April -

Won't speak for William out of hand ... but, we are definitely talking about 1993-1994 winter shenanigans either way ... the paper he mentions exists... i think now I recall it but gosh... 25 years and counting isn't high on priorities any longer. it's not likely "as rare" as we may think .. it's just that that Jan deal in '94 was like really tall.. the warm layer above 800 mb over Logan

Hmm... that D6/7 scenario .. since the para-G's jest 18z yesterday, every cycle is pretty locked in on a scenario that offers the season's first real synoptic winter complexion. ( Don't want to get into a subjective perspective debate; I realize we had the western ME thing a week or so ago ..but that was elevation reliant and really more meso-beta scales) Now, .. obviously the para' model is in experimental/beta, but some non/less conventionally popular tools are latching on now... That ICON and the GGEM ( 12z ) fits, and when considering the GGEM warm bias at this time range ...and the fact that it parks a 1030 mb nascent polar high NW of Maine and arcs the llv +PP down into the damming/barrier jet climo ...heh, I don't think the GGEM's totally liquid in that scenario frankly. Plus, as I intimated, the PNA is sharply rising then - that's a native H.A. signal, particularly when the positive NAO is afoot - and those two tend to run along in a modest anti-correlation, so the notion overall has the statistical support.. What we have here is a +NAO that is west-based in the hypsometric layout. Concurrent in these models that are tipping into an an early consensus (?) is thus a strengthening N-stream jet aecing over SE Canada .. That creates a confluence flow structure, under which indeed we find an arm of gathering polar +PP ... this is becoming increasingly evident in the guidance I've seen ... ICONic, GGEM, GFS, Para-G, and Japan.. haven't checked the Euro but my confidence in that guidance beyond the D4.5 range has been rattled recently ... I haven't seen many individual members of the GEFs just yet, but the trend/blend is subtly deeper upon deep layer approach D5 --> 6 ..not unusual for the GEF camp/oper. to have to back off progressivity leaning toward nearer terms... bear that in mind. The other aspect I'm intrigued by is that if you go look at the Kocin et al and other examples, it is not unusual to have an antecedent quasi cut off low plunk into the SW ...then, gets kicked east to intersect with the N stream ( said )... times well... ( for run, kind of like a tossing b-ball ahead and running and jumping to catch and dunk/self ally -ooper). *Not* intending to suggest a K.U. event here... just that some of the players in a round-about sense bears some precedence - obviously, all of which are formulaic at this time. D6 is late mid/range on the cusp of extended.. granted, but is substantively better performed than a D11 ...

yeah ..that's got to be it, the one I'm thinking off. I was up at UML at the time and remember it took up a whole class session in discussion in FAST when we got around to it after the intersession.. . because it was like a 7 or 8,000 foot tall column b-52 carpet bombing sleet chunks while that S ( it was only moderate steady snow where we were in central-N Middls) .. .But these were big sleet pellets... punching holes in the new snow pack weird.. And it was knuckle stinging cold in that event... I think it was 22C on the station monitor with moderate sleet and S- at the time I looked.

Late autumn / .. early winter ‘93 was a comedy of greedy grinch going to far .. It was as tho it couldn’t resist stealing that much more with that +NAO it torpedoed it’s intent to ruin winter. NAO positive anomaly grew so extraordinary this establish a strong NW static conveyor N of the Lakes region that was confluence with the Pac mean jet ... oops ... grinch failure. although “grinch” mean specifically as it all relates to Christmas .. but it think the first in the series of winter storm was between then and NYears. fast flows transporting angular WAA up and over said confluence-related llv cold ftw! It’s way we had so many very tall sleet column type deals. I remember one storm the (then) ETA FOUS was < 0C at all there sigma levels 800, 900, and 980 mb in an inch of sleet with 4-6” of OES from growth underneath ... That was the first winner I had ever experienced where storms were repetitive almost like clockwork ... every three or four days we were under another winter storm watch ... sometimes watch’s would go up when the storm in play wasn’t even finished. You know that’s kind of a subtle sort of unnoticed thing and that we’ve had a lot of winters with that repetitive storm behavior. since then .. it’s almost like that was the flip of a different paradigm as far as that behavior

Meanwhile the Para G has a blue bomb into the Berks and central NE .. Models in general I’ve been flirting with something in that timeframe sometimes more efficient than other times in phasing other times keeping the wave spacing separate and shear it out… The flow being fast does favor shear but there is enough cold air around and with that rising PNA like that there’s kind of a pseudo-Archimbault look

I wonder if it might be worth considering these QBOs at relative values - comparing +1, vs +10, vs +20 ... -1 QBOs ...etc, to the solar min, the PDO/AMO multi-decadal oscillation and ENSO. I keep reading 'a +QBO during this' ... or aa -QBO during that' ... but it seems one should not auto-applicate the QBO just based on whether it is positive or negative. As we know, the QBO is a top down mass oscillation phenomenon... where +20 equates to a strong westerly wind flux, .. +1 is a weak... Moreover the index moves from +20 to +1 to -1 and -20 ... and back, repeating every 20 to 36 months or so.. Is a +5 QBO during a solar minimum the same correlation result as a +5 during a solar max... ? It's obviously hugely complex - requiring a team of Aspergers types with a penchants for pattern recognition to ferret out, granted...but, it seems quite questionable to me to just apply a +7 QBO to a solar min that is extraordinarily strongly negative. This latter may "overcome" the anti-correlation of +7 with SSW ( for example) and drive either a SSW anyway...or, maybe it is an SSW with a slow downwelling... I mean, jesus - there's a science fiction novel there that is actually too plausible to just be pure fiction! Or not. Earlier this year ( I think it was a 2nd time this has ever happened ) the QBO abruptly broke cycle.. It slipped back negative as January turned page and continued, only resuming positive over this summer..and still is so.. Boo ya! But will it remain that way... Since 2015, we've suddenly registered two of these occurrences ...which never happened since the 1950s. This adds uncertainty ... ouch

I almost wonder if the season either coughs suspicious features or we end up with designations quite late... The frequency of DJF, 'is it last season or the new season,' type occurrences has increased since 2000, globally ... I am unaware of any research into causality but I wonder - could the expanding HC have something to do with this ...

time sensitive ..but this looks like one of those BDs that doesn't analyze at WPC .... nice arc punching SW https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

yeah no ... we're all gonna be eaten alive.. Nah, this more like a pattern perturbation deal... I mean, there's probably a kick-back on 'some' level or another because it is happening over that canvas, but you can have this on this particular date in 1955 just as well... Not that anyone asked but man - I'll take 75/61 until Nov 15 then let the hammer fall... That said, no I don't think so Kevin...? But don't shoot me - I'm not hugely confident on this winter frankly. I "think" as the winter approaches ...we'll see greater suppression/exertion by the N-stream as the dual nature of the exaggerate easterly trade band super -imposes constructively over a La Nina...and that may actually allow one of these ENSOs to show up in the winter pattern - something that's been not as readily observable over recent anomalies over the last 20 years "as much" as they used...to, ..blah blah... Pretty sure that's a dry pattern with about even vacillation between warm and cool departures... I'm actually starting to wonder if this is a good ice-storm year ...but, I've been thinking that every autumn for the past 10 years and only one year did we seem get more icing and that 2017 ... but that icing was also the .37 accretion failed to warnings ... fast flow repetitions for the loss if one is into that sort of thing.

amazing ...as I've so rarely ever seen this - the weak side of the warm frontal arm is just dangling 2500 miles from any cyclonic node thru the our particular climate region like this... the sucker should be down in Va!

You know...actually? - if one evals the total synopsis from the eastern Pac to the western Atl and all interstitial shit going on that connects between .... you could argue if that were a month from now, it'd be three pulsed ice-storm with micro bouncers mixed with freezing drizzle in between... But, being that it is by virtue the 2nd worst time of the year behind the no-man's land April ... it's too early to bite on a cold solution .. .

At risk of being presumptuous about what motivates your thinking ... it may not be a bad way to go, Kevin. I could see one basing that on recent years. It's been a recurrent autumnal theme ... +PNAP hints or even observed ...loading Canada - and as I have opined at length in the past, since 2000 really, we've seen more than our fair share of Octobers either featuring snow, or patterns supporting snow. In fact, hundreds of percents more so than the previous 200 years of climate. In my own life, the first 30 years of it I think I smelled snow in the air twice and saw it once in October, splitting that time range between Kalamazoo Michigan and interior eastern Massachusetts. Since 2000? half the years... verified. Boom - I guess fractals can repeat and give illusions of pattern that break down but we wait for that break down to get us back to the Octobers of lore. In the meantime ... it won't be this year... nope - the snow the other day counts and we've added another October to the till when considering the regional scope - The thing is ...one cannot dispute trends, particularly if they are consistent... I don't know...maybe Will and the gang have specific numbers but it seems to my own experience this has been repeating in autumns... By virtue of only half the years since 2000 yeah...there are exceptions ... 2014-2015 ( I think ..) was a puzzlingly horribly protracted warm autumn that ended up in that wack-job February that season... but since then, we've been back at it -

I wonder if it's a combination of factors... I've read that both seasonal daylight/solar dimming triggers the evacuation of Chlor. ... which is green pigmentation, and that exposes the others ... those being xanthophylls, carotenoids and anthocyanins which are the yellow and oranges..reds... And these are awesome when they are in combination as you get some orangy-reds and saffrons hues etc. But, also cold ... I wonder what the physics of each is though - obviously, temperature and daylight have a plausible physical relationship - it tends to be 'warmer' during the day ( for example) so it is logical to assume that a seasonal hemispheric loss of insolation would lead to cooling so duh. Also, I've never read that dry antecedent growing conditions parlay to colors very well ..in fact, the opposite - but ... as far as the others, we seem to have had both. The early cool nights.. But the light part: my personal suspicion is that smoke may have been involved. I personally noted that the sugar maples here in town started flashing over to orange and yellows toward the tail end of that continental smoke phenomenon, but ... we had not yet endured any kind of nocturnal range of temperatures that were substantively low. Some species were triggered at/along my latitude here in SNE that may not have been associated to cooling. interesting...

mM... Something strange is going on in the QBO though. I'm suspicious of using that metric as a leading 'clean' or coherent indicator (statistically) for the SSW stuff... for that matter, the overall (+)(-)AO tendencies. It's tough - we are statistically in the 2 to 3 year gap and these cavities in SSW activity typically load-in in these windows, but having the QBO now flopping around for the first time in history - uh... This obviously caveats the indicators. One argues we are likely to get a warm wave event or two this winter; while the other has broken down. I don't think this latter aspect can be skipped over in any usage or attempt to use the QBO - The easterly phase of the QBO is somewhat more correlated to the advent of short, sharp, clean and (crucially) downward propagating warming events - the latter aspect being important in the time-lag -AO mode. When the warming leading to the ensuing -AO take place, the mode can last just a couple of weeks, or the rest of the hosting winter season - there are examples of variable length once the -AO kicks in. So what's up with the QBO ? The regular 24 to 36 month periodicity spanning the last 70 years of the observations has recently twice failed for the first time(s). In plain English ... the QBO reversed when it should not have. And by that, the predictable nature of timing the oscillation/reversal in top-down modeling was thrown out of whack ..certainly is a 'woah' moment, rattling confidence of the QBO as a dependable indicator. What/why it broke down? ...enter supposition here [ ] But, this 2nd event appears to be taking place now... The previous was back during 2015-2016 winter ... However, that event shows up as a greater numerological variance, swinging hugely from positive to negative phase with little or no warning. Right now...this is appears to be taking place more subtle... with variance at shallower in absolute values: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data Also...as an afterthought, there is a bright correlative relationship in the data between the MJO phases and the AO... MJO "might" even be used as an apparent leading mode of the AO... whereby the phase 2 thru 6 that are strengthening tends to lead the onset of the +AO, and vice versa on there other side of the phase diagram . This is thought to be the case because 2-6 tend to correlate with stronger subtropical ridging ...and that strengthens the westerlies over top where the circulation join the westerly main mass transport... Thus torque balancing --> weakens cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. Contrasting, the other side... robuster cyclogenesis results, increasing the ambient lower Ferrel Cell easterly trades in the lower boundary of the winter-time PV ( 45 to 70 N) ...and that means the the PV is being stressed/weakens... a.k.a -AO. I personally believe the recent observations wrt to the HC also play a role in enhancing the +AO, because: .. intuitively, the 2-6 phases of the MJO are probably getting a large/super synoptic scale constructive interference pattern by the current +HC ... which offers an early clue as to +AO winter ... experimental. Which is interesting, because the solar minimum going back hundreds of years of reanalysis ..certainly correlates reasonably well if not fantastically so, with the -AO ...again...we're stuck with diametric signals here. With the QBO acting flakey in an unprecedented way... the AO being stuck positive during an opposing solar mimimum correlation that has been pretty sterling as a -AO correlation ( but is not..>) ... and the HC ... plausibly if not likely muting some of the ENSO effects due to smothering gradient dispersal inside the HC boundary ...etc... The snarky cynic in me thinks this winter is a big huge steaming pile of CRAP shoot...and throwing enough shit against the wall is going to make someone look like an "accidental" genius But then I recollect and gather around some form or hope of rationalism and simply state that ... it's fair to question the hitherto "traditional" institution of correlations, because the geophysical dynamics are changing, and that " synergistically" is altering world right before our eyes ... But it's all supposition and tongue in cheek,... I'm not here to refute or impugn anyone's effort - just fwiw ... But there is truth in these concerns

2nd most boring time of the year behind April now in full effect

I posit some of the issue with NINA anomalies ( perceived as such...) may be because the easterlies are entering a new climate paradigm, where they are stronger ... In this idea, these lower latitude mass flux anomalies are a compensating for the general large scale circulation that is featuring ( empirical at that ... ) mid latitudes jet velocity anomalies that are integrating a faster planetary troposphere in the westerlies ... Conservation has to diverge that flow some where, some how - propose ..some goes N; the rest goes S. And in the latter sense, that mass ends up arcing back west into the trade belt. This positive flux sourcing is augmenting the easterlies. I'm just not sure if this is cartoon/ACME Industries logic ( b-bunny road-runner reference ) ... but, so long as large Coriolis torque is balanced and the mass motion is not exceeding that force - I don't see how it that explanation can be dismissed out of hand. If that hypothesis is true ... it's not then a tremendously difficult leap of insight to suspect sea-surface stressing from the east is also enhancing ...as a base-line state. And the latter bold is crucial as a distinction between it, and the La Nina - which it can certainly mimic/cast off that impression of La Nina. Compounding further, there may in fact "BE" a concurrent La Nina super synoptic forcing in play - the former hypothetical would thus [ probably ] constructively interfere and enhance the illustration of it - ... But not seeing aspects of La Nina behave the way they should, may be betraying that a weak La Nina is really what is there ...if perhaps getting dressed up to be something more than it is by the effects of a "new" base-line of strengthening lower tropospheric easterly trades. fascinating - ... But this same effect may also account for why recent El Ninos haven't been presenting as proficiently in global patternization of the westerlies/R-wave distribution as it has notably across many decades of the past ( prior to ~ 2000... ). No...it's not 0 - as in not observable at all...just an attenuation and lowering of the expectation/somewhat failure along typical climate pathways.

Did y’all see the 18z GFS over the North Atlantic ... 900 mb low ?

It could certainly come back ... but it is irresistible to tease people because they have no other outlet to trigger dopamine joy and have become dependent upon a weather models to do so... ha. But, climatologically? this is still the period of time for the so dubbed, 'home grown' season - I mentioned last week that this was probably just being a sensitivity issue in the GFS, based upon those native numerical instabilities at this time of year that permeate that 'petri dish' for TC's in that area - I even said we 'go through this ever year' where the the GFS ( and sometimes the GGEM used to) brings a TC across Cuba. sarcastically.. comparing it to Sandy - which ...was a scenario where the GFS "probably" at first did the same antic, but then the scored at the black-jack table when one actually did develop. I remember some 13 days prior to Sandy, early model runs had a similar evac of TC... But, as fate would have it, the NAO tanked ( crucially west based no less!), such that a cumulus cloud would be forced to into the MA... and then a perturbation timed right and found fertility in that area - boom... Also, back in 2003 the GGEM did this - reiterating that post... which, yeah - seems arbitrary to reference and era 17 years back but it's relevant regardless - It's was probably just illusions of numerical instability ... not "yet" realized... Whether the yet materializes? It may still... but at this time, it is just modeled to do so - in the meantime, there are recent/other compensating physics going on that are muting that climate signal, and that is why the models are not spinning up the phantoms, either. It does probably lower the probability altogether that anything there will develop if that is the case because that means that the muting emerged rather than a TC from the "uncertainty principle" of chaos as we get closer - lol.. .but yeah