Typhoon Tip

well yeah... that's part in parcel -forcing by the Pacific pattern relay into N/A providing that, yup - bingo. Agreed. I'm just focused west personally ... I'm trying to figure out if: this is all La Nina driven ... or HC masquerading as La Nina by virtue of both having the ability to enhance easterly trades/pile warm water west of the Dateline... OR ( if that were not enough - ) some impossible to parse out quantities of either working in irregular tandemization - Here's the thing, the la Nina is not more than moderate in strength. Plus, the total flow characteristic is not very La Nina like over the Americas. I read the MJO publication weekly by CPC and I they keep saying the circulation identifies with the La Nina base-state. Do to the impossibility of parsing issue ( mentioned abv) I'm forced to agree - I mean there's no way to know what is caused in bulk weight for HC or Nina... Again, stressing the point that they mimic - and probably - constructively wave interfere with one another. But that base-line resembling of La Nina is not true over the Americas, either. So there's got to be other things systemically undefined here - In fact ...it's not a huge hypothetical leap to suggest that the oddities and idiosyncrasies that have been so distracting all along ... maybe it is something like a Nina being so super charge by the favorable HC ( and vice versa ) they've gone so as to "click" into the next gears up the transmission - so the waves end up aligning this way. It's sci-fi, hence the word "hypothesis" ..lol. But yeah. We also spent a lot of time in Novie through mid Dec complaining/opining/observing the apparent lack of Nina signature to the on-going maelstrom ... Then, as the cold season got thick, this has evolved... with this extraordinarily +WPO ...so violent that it's sending the inverted correlation state into the EPO ...by latent heat fluxing at an exceptionally long R-wave - causing heights to try and rise over the NE Pacific while the WPO remains positive. The warm water piling over the western Pac/ NINO 4 and west ...when the normal Asian/NW Pac Boreal heights fell during the autumn might have triggered this planetary jet response out around eastern China and Japan, so intense that it's lowered heights on the polarward side of that flow and pulled the PV off its kilter... That seems to be why the SSW emerged the more I'm looking at this. Not a standard model SSW ... ( and I like that too, because the QBO is technically anticorrelated in the westerly phase during the autumn leading the apparent SSW - doesn't lend to it truly being a top-down event, but one injected by unusual planetary wave dispersions - it did ...after all, manifest at the arc of the Pacific Basin ). But I'm not sure that matter really ... Whether the SSW is causing, or is caused, ...we're stuck with a weird western Pac jet anomaly,... failed NE Pac modeled height responses, and a whopper -AO that was already in place prior to the "SSW" - that's a red flag over what preceded and where the causality is located in my mind. I begin to suspect the La Nina works in tandem with HC is constructively causing this hemispheric emergence.

Not actually a terrible awareness/ ..surmise - I was extolling through descriptive flare just yesterday, when a given region comes under anomalies ...said anomalies can at times hammer relentlessly. Then, when said region has actually been beaten to death, losses incalculable ...THAT's when the anomaly starts hammering - The Earth makes sure. It's various systems are abusive ...cruel, without remorse. - to expect remorse from a 'persistence' scenario is an anthropomorphic fallacy - obviously .. goes without saying. But in 2015, we were being hammered the other way - few people complained or thought to introspection on the matter, did they. Ha "Weather" we are being hammered for 'good' or 'bad' is entirely a human distinction. There's no agency deciding who gets what, poetically. It just so happens to be, since we are homogeneously encased in an atmosphere that by and large will delve ubiquitously given enough time, it does in the instant seem unjust. And, arithmetic of averages hides the iniquity of the distribution. ...so to speak. But the forces governing this particular cold season's patternization have diced their way into a kind of 'stuck' scenario. These ridge nodes and blocking at 60 N, whether by formal SSW anchoring or some quasi -variant therefrom, they are not likely moving. They have situated in a proof that the -NAO was/is never the snow savior assigned to it - that I have had on-line arguments for decades over ...get proven right, and then have to go through the debate all over again when the next year comes around and the J.Q. Poster starts chatty-Kathy louting 'NAO NAO NAO' all over again... and again and fallacy again... Hopefully, this year will at last get that lesson across - NO, THE NAO WAS NEVER GOOD FOR US. It's better for western Europe... Just like the -EPO is better for us You can get into to narrow ranges where it may be more favorable; for starters, it has to be in modality. By virtue of 'narrow' that means rare ..that means, not good for us by standardized convention and f'ing logic! Aside from the mathematics that a changing NAO domains is caused by non-linear influence by wave dispersion downstream of the Pacific - giving a faux effect of forcing coming from the NAO domain. Which means..the 'storm' is caused ... by the Pacific. The more I think about there where it is situated stuff, I start to go 'mm' - if it is East biased, you could philosophically argue that it's not an NAO for us anyway. So that's kind of denial of truth distinction there. That all aside... This is probably about as negative wave ( destructively ..) interfering as is mechanically possible in the natural physics of the fluidic atmosphere. Label a region ...I can tell you exactly why it's wrongly oriented as an exertion someplace else... at all scales and dimensions - it is what it is. I don't believe Jan 29 has any hope of manifesting more impact than we've already seen hallucinated by machine enhancing - ...The suppressive nature of the total flow construct is needs to change - the western limb of the NAO has a ridge node that given typical R-wave spread, does not permit a cyclone genesis/transit S of the mid Atlantic. There are anomalies relative to anomalies ...yup - that's about the only way here... OR, the systemic structure needs a dry-eraser board swipe, something seriously badly, in lieu of a whole new paradigm.

0.34% chance

Norlun for the 26th on this GFS

Probably pretty bad when just because it is, we still don't get the winter storm of hopes and desires...only to relay into a three snow shower afternoons May ending in a June 1 synoptic slush event

We still have to go through a perfunctory 18.7" Kutchera cycle ... en route to partly sunny stein ..don't worry. But at least the yokels 'll get a nice Blue Magic O.D. run during that tortured journey -

Hey ...I wasn't far off - not bad LOL

I understand the interest ...but, Siberia just spent what ... 7 years > normal 90% of the time. This may not even typify their whole winter but just a several week stint within - I don't know though. Not only is the ballast of GW being registered in the nocturnal temperature behaviors ... but, the models aver that the frequency of disruptive events should increase along the with the change. I think running along at some acclimated 7 year above normal stretch, then having that rudely offset by a Medusa cold wave fits that.

What was the WINDEX check list that was floating around out there in the earlier web days... Man, I regret not saving that. I google it now and it's hard to find. The only thing I remember about it was the vertical temperature/lapsing and the LIs ... You're talking about tornado stuff there - lol... Kidding, but my memory of that check list from the mid 1990s was: R1 RH > 50% LI jumps up +9 And a T1 to T3 lapse rate of > -9 but those were FOUS numbers. No one uses those grids anymore so... that may also be why the old checklist as I recall is harder to find nowadays. Which incidentally the FOUS does show these criteria met ( abv )

ha ha... over that? man, just wonder - could aspects ever become so dire, that an obs thread gets fired up over the prospect of a cumulus cloud.

You know ( or perhaps more apropos, 'don't wanna know' ), the climate reports, from observation to science/prediction and back ... all have been saying that the ballast of the global warming signal has been captured in fact by the nocturnal numbers. Last summer... now... I mean, this is all consistent with that, whether it is coincidental or not. It's probably some of both. I mean, GW happens in decimals... It took a century to go up 2 C or whatever it is... point being, we got to be +10 on the lows if we're +4 on highs or whatever in order to sustain a +7 at ORH ...that's not GW ... obviously .. ( man I'm bored today LOL ) .. else we be in trouble

Perception is politics ... When 90% of civility sleeps when it is dark, and the ballast of the above normalness of it has been .... while it is dark, they are not readily perceiving the warmth. To say the least, it's truly is insidious ...because 34 F for a low ...no one considers that temperature comfortable regardless - I mean, this could not be a better elegantly calculated method for smashing records and hiding intents and purposes... hahaha. Seriously though ...the randomality of all has this going on while no one is looking - .. It's like last summer in some respects. I think we put up some pretty warm JJA numbers but it never felt particularly hot outside. I remember more memorable heat waves over the decades... Last year seems sort of tepid to very warm at times, before receding back - good convection though. I know it wasn't ubiquitously experienced but I clocked 8 severe warned events here in Ayer, and half verified with limbs and hail....wind. We had some really good lightning too, despite the U.S. lightning data saying the whole country was way down. interesting.

I had heated arguments about the NAO ...jesus, 12 years ago? holy hell - .. but those arguments were because posters would implicated -NAO = snow... wrong. Winter storm enthusiasts don't want a statically depressed NAO index... particularly one that is west based. That is actually true with any and all indexes though, not just the NAO. When the PNA or the EPO or the NAO ... etc, are unchanging, that means that they are in a state of equilibrium with respect to the other indexes, which represent conjoined regions that are influential back and forth ... mass exchange. Equilibrium = fair weather. That is simplest way to conceptualize the complexity of Index modulation there is. If the NAO...or PNA...or WPO...AO...etc., are changing, that means that the equilibrium is off... the 'stalemate' is broken - wars have begun that way ... And in this case, the war is a storm. Storms are simply what happens when the atmosphere is trying to get back to a state of equilibrium. Having said that ... the NAO is not our problem. Nope... This shit was going on last week when the NAO was not representing much of a quantifiable block up there. We have one now... And it arrived without a correction event - ... which for the indexes et al, we are on the western side of the NAO domain, pretty much on the boundary of where it terminates into the eastern end of the PNA really .. Since the prevailing weather ...wind, pattern, S/W ...L/W ...all of it, is west to east, an index change in the NAO can conceivably be observed without, because the forcing is heading east more readily. It's probably why Heather Archembaults statistical representation of these concepts also concluded that the correlation was much stronger with the PNA than it was in the NAO, which demo little skill.

Heh...one should not swing their emotional pendulum with this run.. Not sure how anyone can acknowledge in one hand that determinism ( predictability ..) is pretty much non existent beyond D 4 ... then, turn around on the next cycle and frustrate over a Del Marva track... that is beyond D 4. It's meaningless - futility of doing so all but absolute.

You know... that's a snow atmosphere too - I mean, you can see that with dynamics and a favorable track "UNDER" ( for f sake! ) our latitude, that's enough to get a blue cash-in or two. It really is just like a "boring monster" It's not just us -...I know I'm abusive in making fun of us in here. But, I was in line at a typical grocery store cashiered and bag-girled by the usual sub-Millennials ... and I happen to hear one say to the other, "I wish it would at least snow again if it has to be winter... " It's been on the news too. At the gym, the overhead televisions muted, the weather person ( FOX, NESN ...Harv or that women on staff there that's so transcendedly hot you're just like pissed off! ), they're all putting up graphics comparing snow this season to other years and trying to put it in perspective. It's really them doing it for themselves - trust me. I've worked intern for Harv and Mich Michaels back in the day, and met Mark "Frozen-then-thawed" They hate this. Trust me...they are miserable having to report the same punch-in 37-41 partly cloudy banality like a not so funny version of a movie starring Murray. I guess it could be worse. You could be an on-camera Met in the Pheonix market -

Holy shit are you kidding ... +6+ in ORH ... ? ho man... Ray's right. This is a helluva way to collect any gratification for witnessing interesting phenomenon when it feels shitty outside yet it's that "warm" - Yeah, Neptune is an inferno compared to Pluto - why choke my chicken! how riveting ...that's deliciously boring.haha making me laugh

Ah -hahahahahahahaha! Yeah ...sometimes when in lost fortunes are replaced by frustration in such elegant proportion ... it becomes difficult not to consider the super-agency theory - lol. The atmosphere does this, you know? It's like when it's got it in for a region it just doesn't relent - it hammers ...and when the region is dead and defeated, THEN, its' starts hammering ... Nature is cruel ... like an Orca (this winter) flipping a seal pup ... ah, we'd be the seal pup in that metaphor Like 2015 February - it's like Will said ( I think it was ...), we were merely mid way in the month having already shattered every 30 day snow record there is between here and Utqiagvik Alaska ... Yet, we were looking at 4th period blizzard watch, and a D8 high probability for successful verification just beyond.. It goes in both directions. The Earth makes sure ... And of course, we don't notice it when 80 or 90 some-odd % of the ballast times anomalies actually dole out in equaller proportions. In this case...we are being hammered by negatives .. that's just it. In philosophy that's basically it, the unrelenting form of plight. Question is, does it relent in time ? Back in 1956 ('57?), there was a March that racked up some 60+ inches from N. Philly to PWM after a pretty sandy serious of winter months prior. Seems harder to do that as this new climate paradigm is doing whack-a-doo things with Springs ( separate discussion vector ..lol - ) in general. But, the point is... it's academic to say, it's January f'um 19 .... You know, while on the subject, it occurs to me that all we need is +PNAP even just a little... whole aspect changes. Obviously we are in 'put up or shut up' scorched attitudes now, but we really are still in a subsume regime...Whenever we see blocking in the 60th N latitudes pearled, that is inherently slowing that W --> E coordinate relative to the 40 N. That is an "implied" cyclonic motion...and that's the initial state to get SPV's to crash in and fuse with S /stream features. We are not seeing that because the flow / PNA et al is just not allowing ANY western heights...so there's nothing to trigger those interactions - bypass prevail. But you know...? That's playing with matches there...

And whomever nails the 'whence' that occurs gets the parade and the ladies -

Well gee, Ray ... I'm impressed - Yeah, okay - if you wanna play the general appreciator of weather-related anomalies card, absolutely. We do not, under those auspices, disagree at all. Folks should know me - if a comet is whizzing by, that takes precedence. It's just that in here, this is not an appreciation for weather-related anomalies ... It's a psycho-tropic stimulus addiction ...one that is rooted in the sentiment of snow. That's the audience I was directing the previous post too - I'm being a little sardonic there but seriously, I agree that 2011-2012 has its own quirky charm and fascination when looking at the nature of this engagement with equal AVR. No disagreement from me.

Ha ! ... yeah but no ... can't agree. It's subjective so tfwiw - but 2011-2012 truly was absentia - ... this winter has SSWs and -NAO/-AOs ...etc, at least. That one, not only last the whole way, it never had any hope ... ....the whole way

Lol - In a practical real setting ? No much ... If one is not sufficiently protected in an air mass of that gelid amber, they are over the death threshold - like... the body has frozen solid, and the soul's essence long receded back into quantum information paradox that argues nothing is lost and destroyed in the real Natural universe ...and then the wind blows ? Doesn't matter - haha...

Oh ...it'll resume - This is how Gaia turns up the oven to the "Clean" setting on humanity. By obfuscating the direction of climate change with offset bullshit like this to instill doubt, people relax, and then she cooks us to our demise - eradication succeeds. Think 'toads in a pan of water slowly raised to boil,' in spite of all our conceits - nice. That Siberian cold is probably being manufactured out of the same ailing global circulation's insidious expressions of climate imperiled ...the same one that brought 300" of snow to Japan in 5 minutes last month ( sarcasm but whatever that was...) It's plausible if not probable that the entire hemisphere and the arrival of these circumstances et al are caused by a competing total systemic forces - GW concurrent when there's an attempt to "negatize the polar index" contributions to the total circulation. In fact, the speedy flow for a decade and counting is related; it's like this year is that, on steroids now that blocking is intruding into the affairs. It's a bizarre hemisphere to see blocking nodes set over top of 6 to 9 contoured height-lined westerly jet streams. That latter is not conducive to the former - I just think we are dealing with uniqueness that has never happened. And there may be times in the 300 years of awareness/ climo reconstruction efforts that bear some resemblance, but not the same in the absolute sense ...and it's in this latter sense that we are suffering for what manifests out of it. So some out-of-box philosophy there ..sure... But, in more practical terms, that Siberian depth is really just another expression of the proven right, "extremes" that the climate modeling has already been proven correct about.

Tempering the elation with a dose of objectivity ... Keep in mind, there is a propensity going back months ... to consummately correct all deep ranged middel to extended time frame features, downward in amplitude as those come into any sort of consensus - interestingly, right around the time ranges when confidence for actually being real, emerges ..roughly 120 hrs give or take a few cycles. Jan 26 just did this ...or is doing so.. Jan 29 most likely will as well. We've been through three pretty distinctly different pattern flavors: whatever drove Dec 17; that weird interlude that was really the absence of a pattern being a pattern in itself; now ( weird blocking + under ripped by a velocity surplus hemisphere + a PNA that is negative)/ 3 = N/S . So what that implies is that regardless of these patterns, the models still do this larger than life --> no ...the celebrity's human like the rest of us reality dosing along their management of features. And it is a behavior owned by all guidance ...UKMET to Euro ...GGEM and GFS ... tea-leafs. Seems to want to argue that it's just in the state-of-the-art of the technological ambit. I remember years where this was not so coherently annoying though ...so it's interesting. I am not sure why. Fun metaphor: The moon rising over the horizon. Optically, the image distorts by the atmosphere into looking quite foreboding .. as though it were actually going to crash into the Earth in a celestial doomsday event ... It's almost like the models see things hugely as they are coming over the distant horizon ranges ... In any case, this pattern does not lend to skill and it never has...as was hammered last week. That is still the case. So, putting that facet together with the aforementioned correction tendency, ...ugh - good luck.

I wonder if we’ll put some back to back blw normal days together here