Typhoon Tip

Telecon layout at CPC hasn't supported a regression into winter ... pretty much at all, since they began this huge AO correction 2 weeks ago. In that time, they have been joined by the neutral neg PNA and the neutral positive NAO. What we have not seen to go along with, is operational runs pretty much at any point being as warm as all that suggests they could, if not 'should,' be. The EPS may not agree... granted. Not sure what the GEFs EPO is looking like, but I suspect it is not hugely different than the EPS. Thing is, we have seen -EPO/-PNA/-NAO in the past, and that single cold signal overwhelmed. 2005 February started that way - it won't do that nearing April ... but you know - But, the EPS does change the landscape ...some. Thing is, you have to keep in mind that we are on the equinox sun when all that hits. It's a diabatic mutilation of the hemisphere and I suspect models are not really morphing the way that the reality will be morphed - ha... for lack of better way to say it. No one said otherwise, I know .. But I suggest it is possible we get this 'shot across the bow' spring balm this week, then we regress to normal climo. But hey, the upshot of our normal March 20 climo is blue bombs so... we'll see. Unless La Nina climo finally decides to show up to the party - Scott and I surmised ( half in snark ) that we have not seen a La Nina jack shit this year, despite some rather 1.5 like negative ENSO layouts... We're sort of expecting the cold return by conditioning maybe but there are still caution flags.. With out luck, it does just in time to ensure we Blutowski March

Yeah... ha, guess it's a bit much to ask machine guidance (MOS) to exceed climo by more than 15 F some five days in advance. MEX is over 60 Thursday and Friday for KFIT, 'ASH and 'BED ...where/whence climo is 43 to 46 F by then at those sites... MOS is weighted more heavily toward climate - at least that used to be the case .. - out in time. The idea there is, getting a 63 at KFIT for Friday when climate is 43 ...that's probably pressing the ceiling of what that product is even capable of allowing... In other words, that's pretty strong warm signal. More than mere 'nape' but a goodly margin, too. That 49 at KBED on Wednesday. nah,...there's no reason to assess KFIT as warmer than KBED ( 53 ) with a wind going WSW under the zenith of dry equinoxial sun. There's likely stat anomaly in there I think. 53 on Wed ( otherwise ) is 10 F over climo D3 ... So, adding the 2-m parcel explosive adiabatic profiling ... probably is over 60. Here's the thing - I've seen it be nearly 60 F over a snow pack in late February at the bottom of 540 thickness under full sun. Here, we are passing 550 dm with mixing on a deep laminar WSW trajectory and I have bare fields opening up around here as a testament to the sun's power - it really has not been snow melt weather. I dunno... maybe the very lowest slope temperature is even higher. I must admit... even I forget what the sun is like now. It's blazing hot despite the lingering air chill - I don't know why this early temperature fight interests me.. It's tedious, I know -

You sure? it’s been between 70 and 87 three times in the last five years between Feb and Mar.

Yeah Brian and I have mentioned this before but this is entering the bust time of year in machine guidance ... the reasons he cited are on point but also question : are we still drawing on the earlier 30 year mean? The database ‘brain’ may not have the positive flop tendency ‘in mind’ my experience is use the Skew-T l-p diagrams under March Synoptics such as this and add 2 for 2-m. But you gotta determine the boundary layer depth. May not be 850mb ... 875 ... maybe 900

That's better... 12z Tuesday in the Euro with 0 to + 2 C moderating throughout the day, under low RH ceiling heights and west drift - that is nape on roids.. Wednesday may be a real legit top 10 day -

I can see it in the 12z operational GFS's 'attitude' - for lack of better word. The arguments I've put forth regarding either La Nina ... HC ( or somehow someway they work together ) is also muddled causality melded in with spring heights inching higher ( coherently in this run..) Its difficult to separate the which is which in proportion But this run is speeding the flow up again.. shearing and Lakes cutting as the S heights become ( perhaps ) seasonally impenetrable. On top of all.. the CPC telecon spread is even inched warmer by curve interpretation... I'll tell ya, this run appears to offer two trace of snow chances at Logan through 360 hours. If those fail, heh... we put March in the Blutowski running... There has never been a 0 point 0 0 March at Logan. One's gotta figure we get nothing out of March but a ruined futility trophy at some point.

Since I'm the one that ultimately coined the expression 'nape' as a means to describe a sensible atmospheric setting ... allow me this moment: Next week is not 'nape' weather. Next week...is a swath of (attempting) anomalously warm weather - ..the extent of which to be determined/contingent upon the usual synoptic suspects that are typically not handled at this range. Nape is a very narrow, and fragile circumstance(s) that create a 'faux' warmth appeal amid a chilly truth. That specifically is the 'spirit' of that. We've all felt this... Picture the scene, one closes their front door behind them. Their edifice faces south from late February on ... It's 12:34 pm Saturday. The temperature is 44 F. The sky is > 90% unfiltered by cloud contamination. And the wind is at or near calm. In that moment, those variables overwhelmi, creating a kind of bubble. Inside of which is a false impression about the day's actual piece of shitness annoying chill. And there's some relativity to climate and calendar there too... 52 in April... 62 in May... etc.. But their needs to be nearly unabated insolation, and very light wind. Nape weather is fragile - Nape, in its original conception and use in turn of phrase some ten or whatever years ago... is related to 'faux' comfortability created by 'nook' effect amid otherwise chilly atmosphere. The sun is crucial. Having nearly no wind is crucial. The fragility of 'nape' affect cannot be underscored. As the sun dims, and the wind motion increases, the toleration shatters very quickly. Nape is actually a hard sensible appeal to maintain. Next weeks packed pressure contouring from the western TV to NE region, creating flag taut, white noise in the barren oak, early season shot across the bow ... is more like "fake" mild and really the wind causes it to be annoying. I would take 'nape' over that any day. If it ends up 70 on Thrursday like NWS said ( and we really should make that temperature ..their reasoning notwithstanding )but this just seems like the atmosphere has developed a 'Gaia' conscious that is in f-u mode, and will take a mild look and fennagle a way to make it garbage. I'm almost waiting for the misty warm sector that pulls off feeling cold because of it. Oh, we'll find a way to delay the diffused warm front arrival - despite having SW vectors at every level ( ooh, one of my favorites! ). Or...the impulse over the Lakes suddenly intrudes sending a polar front mooshing through the 'warm sector' 24 to 30 hours ahead of the original synoptic appeal of that period toward the end of the week. In fact ..that's probably a 'fast flow' HC compressED auto-correction anyway, snark aside. By the way, all S/W beyond D6 are still erroneously amplified ... just like they have been in all models, all cold season, almost all the time. Bear that in mind when your tying off your bicep, slapping your forearm, and getting ready to insert the weather chart needle.

Firstly ...the Euro operational referenced earlier really wasn't a back-door front. People call every tom dick and hair hung boundary in the area a BD...- BDs happen because of certain synoptic mechanics. What happens is, you'll observe a S/W impulse that streaks SE through Ontario and toward NS... Behind it, there is a plume of +PP that sweeps at first S through Maine, then... turns SW enhanced to do so by the cold ocean GOM ...adding density to the air mass ..assist momentum and rolls until that extinguishes ...usually 10 mile SW of Kevin's back patio just to put some stank on it. That's why when true BD fronts cut into SE NH and NE MA ... and sweep to the Worcester Hills ( eventually...) folks claim to smell the ocean behind the boundary... and, why in April and May it can be shockingly obtrusively colder air. ...etc.. The over top distinction is that it comes in from the NE - front and flow behind the front. I've seen it drop from 80 to 48 at KBED while PF and Brian are still 80 in some extreme cases... That's not what that Euro is doing - not even close. That thing on the Euro is a front that sweets in NW and then pivots across the area ...effectively becoming a warm boundary that demarcates polar lingering winter from ( probably ) too much heat in the M/A

it's like a logic in itself ... yet, not connected to the empirical - based reality/ practical world - fascinating.

If it happens ... ? probably all summer -

OH ... I'm almost expecting the pattern to verify and SNE to eat shit while that success is happening -

Yeah I know - tell me 'bout it. Although, I might leave out the "...it seems," and opt for 'at any point in time', instead - Which for my own hypothesis bank, it's consistent with the ENSO model damping idea - forcing and losing correlative relationship at decadal scales ( ...so gradually losing...). The idea therein, the HC is absorbing it too deeply such that the thermal presentation/physics in the ocean-atmospheric coupled sense ...is become too removed from the gradient of the westerlies. If there is not detection there ...there can be no/less forcing - The ENSO states do not "mean" automatically x-y-z just because they exist. There has to be geo-physical circuitry, and what seems completely intuitive and obvious to say, ...that is connected in gradient ... seems to escape people in everyday practice. Summary: If the HC has engulfed(ing)(s) the termination latitude of the ENSO ... those state are disconnecting its ability to influence the westerlies - I think we are seeing that ..I had this discussion with Ray last summer about the dwindling El Nino thing ... and we were wondering if the same holds true/observable in the La Nina's ... Interesting, we immediately have a winter that did that ...

No ... I as talking about the afterward period ... the assumption/or expectation that the settling flow will just go into a western ridge after that "EPO burst" ... The combination of seasonal modulation WITH those background signals ...doesn't support that in my mind. It may though - I was thinking, we didn't exactly polish a very La Nina February, either... So perhaps that part of it is just not that factor-able. As far as the EPO its self ... I am wondering if the MJO may be "more able" to register a forcing in the flow as we are entering less gradient - window of forcing opportunity? something like that

Shouldn't easonal change be a modulating force there ? if the EPS is right about the EPO burst in the foreground, I'm not sure seasonal modulation makes that a safe assumption for afterward ... because, it is not just seasonal change that has me scratching my head. Longer termed pre-existing and ongoing super synoptic signals ( La Nina and HC ... ) don't really support it either. I've been hammering that I know ...but it's unfortunately true. It's not a metric in deterministic forecasting techniques as much as it is a "synergistic" awareness as to what can happen from that - So I guess what I'm getting at as that I don't have much confidence that we are set up for a nice winter assumption ...like this "enabling" EPS is presently fighting off those signals. Yeah, yeah...we've had blizzards in April too. I'll tell you though..it's baffling. The La Nina climate... The HC stuff... the GEFs... seeming to have telecon layout that looks at this time more like those signals ... yet, the EPS won't, and the operational runs also won't. To me that is an epic indicator battle - Taking a stab at the EPO part tho ... that looks like a direct EPS response to the MJO ...but the MJO is in negative/destructive interference trying to move momentum through Phase 8 ..and to me that's interesting. It could be the the flow relxation of seasonal change is sort of physically "allowing" more MJO exertion to begin registering - even though the winter MJO suppression was true, it may not be AS true...

Lol, ... the ever irrepressible 'not even exist' scenario cannot be rule out either

It seems we can present a case in both directions.. I'm inclined to think/ .. aver even, that we've suffered neggy NAO and or suppressed/belated springs over the last several back-to-back transition seasons. Yet, in that same time, there has been an unworldy 80F episode in a February! As well, a couple of exceptionally warm weeks in different March's, and one April in the last ten years ( can't recall which) had an Easter close to 90 F... So it has been odd behavior. Two Mays in a row had winter CAA with packing pellets and snow flurried busted virga CU ...and we're talking a month ..a single month before the Solstice - no one has really emphasized that with the alternating, blinking colorized bold font that it deserves. Yet, those weird early crazy warm episodes nested early ..

Extrapolating the D10 Euro would offer something of siggy scenario ... with that lag back SW pinch low ... ejecting/ .. suggestive eastward, open and naked to that sudden surged -EPO hybrid ridge over the western Canada... It would set a large subsume phase ( when the N/stream comes down and takes over a S/stream that is loaded with moisture, the Earth moves and angel's weep...) type into motion thereafter... And, with large reservoir of anomalous late season cryo slabbed over S and SE Canada edging the Lakes/OV/NE ...yet, a sick baroclinic field extending roughly Indiana to Cape Cod. Everyone ends the season 120% of normal snow totals if that sets up... Unfortunately, that is D10 ... The usual suspects in this forum will be excited and should not be... If you outfitted them with an automatic genital poker that stabs a testicle whenever they get excited about a D10+12 Euro, they would get excited about the D10+12 Euro...so it is futile to caution. The GFS is also doing this - ...I'd like to see the most recent telecon layout ... The last 10 days -worth of persistence has been arguing that these operational runs, that really show no interest in moving the season on to spring - curiously enough now that we are ending the first week of March and it will rapidly be "Equinoxial" in practice here shortly, are in fact instruments of the CC denier conspiracy. ...kidding, but convention of calendar, antecedent super telecon signals, and the f'ing sun itself, are all against the operational song and dance - folks don't care so long as D10 Euro has that look I supposed. In fact, next week's warm up has finally come into a better consensus - not bad in itself considering the fragility of warmth management in guidance during a hostile time of year... 2 ... 2.5 days of warmer than normal.. Normally I'd say 70 on Thursday is a likely MOS bust with thickness over 555 and a deep layer continental warm conveyor WSW flow that is well mixed through the lower BL ...blah blah, but climo and cloud both cannot yet be discounted at D6 enough to go comfortably ... 25+ over seasonal norms just yet... Thereafter, the complexion/ .. synoptics out there .. again, it is as though the operational versions saw this warm up next week merely like an early or mid February winter warm pulse and resume winter completely oblivious to the calendar. Jokes and sardonics aside.. I'd say it is more likely we have this warm spring sort of shot across the bow next week ..then, we slip back to climatology.

Yeah .. sure does

Huh ? its March 4

Will it still be a piece of shit when that happens ?

This is kinda interesting... the AMO ... may be a fantasy index? https://phys.org/news/2021-03-apparent-atlantic-artifact-climate.html Para phrasing that article, ...it seems that external factors are to blame for the apparent oscillations of the N. Atlantic oceanic temperatures ( ~ 60 year period). Those being natural vulcanism during pre-anthropomorphic Industrial, and since the Industrial evolution... some of this apparent 'AMO' is cause by us... That means that the AMO does not have its one climate oscillation mechanism like previously thought - which means soooo many seasonal outlooks were fantastically based upon wrong factorization - usually snowy drooling ones too haha. It's kind of funny if that's true. People want snow and cold in winter, and used the AMO to forecast that ...and it has nothing to do with the atmophere in a forcing schematic at all. It has to do with whether some factory in China farts in the right direction - I'm not sure if that means there is no influence by SST/oceanic heat content. I think it is overrated for America ...more so a factor for western Europe as as stemmed discussion tho -

The Euro looks like Tuesday napes the hell out of 'em ... Wednesday is (nape + mild)/2 ... but very warm in Kevin's car.. Thursday is a warm day. ...Friday probably is cloud contaminating/rain... whatever...it's all D 8 by then ... But this did this again - I'm noticing this sloshing going on between 00z and 12z .. The 00z's tend to regress back toward a colder complexion... The 12z go back a bit more warm. And the posting tenor/frequency goes up and down at a negative correlation coefficients - lol ...

Check this ... I'm not sure it is still the case - but, the distancing MEX days are increasingly weighted to climate? ...that definitely 'used' to be the case. My experience over the years since I became more 'meteorologically sentient' as it were ...is that thicknesses over 546 dm ...particularly over 552 dm, in a deep layer continental conveyor patterns that are well mixed ... tend to make 70 F ... Obviously, clouds/rain depending ... If the MEX is still being weighted heavily toward climo, that is most likely pulling those values down? What is climo next week - 45 ..48... somewhere? If we are 10 or 13 over(under) climate on MEX for a D6/7/8 outlook, that's also about what typically happens for very warm(cool) anomalous patterns at this range, in that product. Heh...I'm sure there was a shorter way to have said this - sorry

Heh... Trying to say 'no politics and no covid' in this World's present dystopian ambience of vicissitudes is akin to Leslie Neilson trying to disperse a crowd of gawkers waving them off, "Nothing to see here. Go on home. Disperse. Nothing at all to see here..." while a fireworks factory is detonating behind him in the backdrop - wtf... It's a banter thread -

True .... but what I am saying is not in the absolute sense, either. Not saying it can't - It's a brief op ed against the presumptive attitude, a presumption that is removing the modulation curve in order to get on the far side of next week's warm up as phew, back to our drug LOL... By then, ... " 2nd half of March.." ? heh... Look, if the AO was not soaring to crucifixion heights out there, and the NAO was not in tandem also bouncing around ( albeit shallowly ...) in lower positive range, while the PNA is also tending too flop negative after this vortex interlude we suffer over the next 4 days ...I wouldn't be raising caution flags ... Oh, I might snark that the sun is a cooker. But these are bona fide clad, institutionalized methods for deterministic assessment - they are not cold and snowy. So ...yeah, it's a little odd - .. where is Larry seeing that anyway come to think about it - If I saw that layout of mass field mode/modal indicators at any time of the cold season, I would not be emphatic about any run that looks cold biased relative to that signal.