Typhoon Tip

Was this written by scientist ? "...and futuristic air and ocean drones ..." sounds like something my 12-year nephew would say - LOL

While the longer term pattern still argues for summer at least being on life-support ... there's no question this is like the 'shot across the bow' air mass Will and I have talked about in the past. I almost feel though that this is flukey too - I mean that weird deep hole in atmosphere that seemed to spontaneously come into emergence NW of NS up there. I'd been watching that in the models; it really didn't come from very much and it really seemed to be a planetary node - kind of weird. Put it this way, running 90 kt 500 mb westerly cores from Montana to Maine in early mid august through early september is part of the fluke. Interesting... either way... my hypothesis is a cooler autumn relative to the hemispheric signal ( which that means...it may not be cooler relative to the climate numbers, but when compared in situ to the hemisphere) ...and that may be enough for packing pellet CAA unusually early...probably pre halloween sometime in October.

Heh not sure I buy the Euro D5+ ... The GFS, while probably not 'as good' of a model in the long run, does seem to be scoring a bit better than the Euro's consummate attempts to heat wave the OV to New England regions in that D5.5 to 9 range it's been doing all summer. The GFS is obnoxious. I get it. It's annoying how it keeps suppressing the westerlies south and hosing these insane jet velocities so anachronous to summer, which should be more nebular with weaker velocities, etc. That said, we've been verifying unusually well defined R-wave structures and faster jet velocities all summer - so...it's like the GFS is onto this, but just doing it too much? It makes it hard to know how much so. I bet if the GFS was outfitted with the Euro grid density and then had on with its own 4-d yadda yadda it'd actually be a better model than the Euro. Somewhere in between probably, what's new -

Steve is like the heckler in the audience explaining to everyone why tongue-in cheek/sardonic wit isn't funny -

agreed...

Well.. than I hope my next GF's name is 'stratosphere'

Hmm..several observations re that bold text. 1 .. For anyone of this particular pre-occupation and engagement the words "hot" and "girlfriend" being used in the same turn of phrase - is akin to the vin diagram needed to decode one of my synoptic overviews prior to a pattern change ... 2 .. And, that may be bargaining in itself, as though leveling that suggestion at us gives hope those two facets could ever be collocated in time ... ? 2 .. why have a 'hot' girlfriend? ...beyond the carnal desire for one, that is... It's far more likely and healthy, both physically and spiritually... to find a committed woman/man ( depending on how one identifies themself) in the aggregate population... One's that are more homely, vaguely tolerable to look at, and can even laugh... they stay compared to glib individuals that have been enabled by looks and therefore never really learned humility for their journeys to date. That's why those are "ex" and "hot" in the same turn of phrase - that was the problem in the first place. Those types often have oddly working internal appraisal compasses - if at all - pointing more inwards, and thus don't so readily recognize or appreciate true beauty in another individual .. Oh they say they do, if they've learned societal conventions and stop short of allowing their placated existence from turning them into sociopaths.. But, you're likely to fare better odds with a 7/10 lady/dude with her/his head screwed on straight any day over 9.2 with her/his head up some kind of Princess/Prince complexed lagging developmental ass ..any day.

See I thought/was under the false impression the 00z Euro had the boundary N of this... If this is the boundary's mean position 12z ... there is nothing happening and this thread should be evaporated, unceremoniously as though a personal attack on convection enthusiasts to really nail the p.o.s.ness of this pattern home.. LOL

Ladies and gentlemen... this is what we in Psycho-babble refer to as "bargaining" - ...it's a self-soothing tactical alternative in plausibility that is typically created to avoid having to face an inevitable painful reality... Using this as a predictive model, the subject will like experience a 'melt-down' as the next phase along the total acceptance of butt-bang arc to full recovery -

It's also possible ... yeah, that the NAM is over doing it with that. I have actually seen the NAM be too aggressive with BD too - it's just not typically the case. Most often, even the higher resolution runs will end up needing to correct SW ... So, if it is ideal 72 F with pancake feathery CU Golf weather where once stood a mighty enhanced wording...while there is far distant anvil wall on the absolute S/SW horizons during baseball hail at Trenton NJ don't be surprised.

that's more like it! When the universe ages to it's termination and ceases to exist... SPC will still be trying to place warm fronts too far NE into this sort of synoptic set up -

Now watch...just because I mentioned that stuff about the geo-morphology and forcing of near earth surface synoptic weather phenomenon ...limiting warm frontal intrusion ...the 12z NAM will go ahead punch the f'er to Grey Maine... ha

in a bushman's vision ...that's why though. This is anomalous air mass for seasonal change... It's not even a preview ( 'shot across the bow') really ...strikes me as a fluke. I like shot across the bow, breaking back air masses to be anchored in a definitive pattern modulation... This is a weird thing that I think is related to another popsicle headache... Anyway, 18 hours later summer tries to surge back, and homage to the idea that it's still there... And that's a problem ...when you have still active moisture draining off foliage and evaporation of soil moisture content in the midwest and Lakes regions .. mixing with tumbling 17+C 850 mb temperatures ready to surge right back in, this unusualness of the severe set up for this time of year...is sort of indicative of this 18 to 24 hour fluke air mass... Correct one way, snap back - It's really difficult up our way too...because our topography/geographical feed backs offer more forcing that stall or even reverse warm fronts. Basically, because the land falls out in elevation from underneath the troposphere when east of NY/VT/NH. Vectors lifting over the western hills/mountains and general higher elevation, sets up a kind of "invisible" counter-vector that rolls the atmosphere and tacks back W-S at lower levels east of said axis... There's a forcing back SW... at all time below 800 or so mb. This is why BDs seem to get pulled back down the coast...it's more than just the mass discontinuity ...That's the start, but that motion of air then gets a kick-back from that tacked vector and then the boundary over achieves... it's why in late April, a common almost fixture of fronts stalled in the area is that fronts align smartly due E until about Albany, then curvilinearly descend SE and wrap around NE and even go back N over the water E of Cape Cod... It's that rolling motion that retarding. It's also why we "tuck" in the winter and enjoy ice storms while PF in N. VT is 52 F at mid slope.

I have not been altogether impressed by the Euro's handling of tropical systems of the years. That's from the genesis phases of them, to the handling of them after the fact ...until they begin to experience the influence of the westerlies ...then the model's a kind of "johnny-come-lately" and does remarkably well. I think the tropical regions/monsoon trough zones are like a "limit" in the equations - and I wonder what the mathematics over the 4-d variable system is doing at that x-coordinate boundary ...where it's like a geo-physical asymptote .. fading to oblivion more so than a discrete edge. I guess a metaphor is like 'slipping outside the Euro's radar-range.' Anyway, I wonder if their system falters there a little...because its in that amorphous ill-defined boundary that zygote TW/TCs tend to formulate and begin moving W where the 10 N and 10 S ( depending on hemisphere) gets influenced by the underbelly of the HC and the easterly trade winds zones... The Euro is routinely lagged behind other guidance in genesis in these regions, and then... seems to be challenged in intensify systems ..playing catch-up with the other guidance. I'm usual raising a brow at this point if I see the model even carry an inverted 'dent' west around 15N across the Atlantic ...usually at the other end of the scale, it is not uncommon to find the GGEM is negotiating a categorical hurricane if/when the Euro does... Anyway, since Laura is technically still moving with westerly component ... which means it is not yet influenced by the westerlies... I wonder if the Euro's hiccup runs deviating from the consensus is part and parcel of all this...

And Saturday looks really bad to me on the 00z Euro... In fact, the behavior of the pressure pattern and QPF matches climo typology for tornadic events over eastern NY the upper MA and interior SNE ... with a pretty clearly define morning straif of elevated convection along a warm front strongly supported by synoptic detailing, giving way to warm sector intrusion to lower VT/NH ... and along the residual warm frontal axis arcing into upstate NY there are very intense convective nodes exploding in the model resolution of what happens next... Those are super cells folks - no question given the W 70-90 kt 500 mb flow running collocated overtop a sun steamed, fresh theta-e transported low level thermal ridge ( 850s 20 C CT over SE Massachusetts!), and heights tending to fall overtop from west to east across the area between 18z and 00z Sunday... The key is.. warm intrusion and fresh falls of BL rains near 12z clears out and this creates a pal of SB CAPE anomaly in the area...if we go back and look at the daily behavior prior to '89, Monson 2010, even ORH '53 ...and the Mohawk Trail MCS June 10 '87 ...these are all fine examples of what to look for and were remarkably similar with dawn rumble rains that peeled away and sun-soared to mid 80s/72 blue-tinted bath water hillsides ... ensuing jet mechanics nosing in mid day from the west... That's Saturday incarnate - I mean Oklahomans might feel jealous looking at these general synoptic parameters. Devil's in the details with convection though ...so, this is just what I've gleaned off Pivotal - there may be distractions I'm not seeing or are unaware therein but ... it's like Thursday and Friday have their intrigue, but Saturday was painted with unique convergence of parameters constructing a convective appeal on a guidance that is very tough to beat at time ranges < 120 hours. I would change the title to three days of potential and just encapsulate the whole saga -

Ha ha yeah this isn’t the panhandle of Texas from late April to early June when you have 45 straight days of visible crispy super cells rollin under the tropopause

All three days Thursday through Saturday look troublesome or certainly could turn out that way with that front oscillating in the area ... accentuated helictites long it with unusual thermal gradient for this time of the year either side is intriguing. Seems that EOF1swarm idea had shifted more to Saturday with organized cyclone mechanics in the area but the boundary itself could be active for a couple days before that ...wherever ultimately sets up

If humans would stop f'ing as a species beyond their means... and overpopulating the planet, ...than objective analysis on where to plant civility would have a chance to work... Unfortunately, ... when you have the collective biomass that is many orders of magnitude larger than any other species ... you have to sans advisory and sequester land. And so, concomitant with population over-abundance ...you get cities and their edificial infrastructures, and their populations... placed in harm's way... And guess what ...pandemics are part of harm's way. Reduce population density,...the disease doesn't spread as readily... it's mathematically determinable to have already gone through the natural virulence gestation in the population by now... But this? Nooo... plenty of contact accessible to the pathogenicity of this thing ...probably indefinitely when talking about 7.6 billion warm bodies. Around and around we go... because by the time this thing has intractably moved through and/or a vaccine has been created... it's mutated. The Influenza A/B and the vaccination modulation necessity therein ... is all overpopulation driven... The strains might disappear entirely if the population were 10% spread out... But, we are idiots in spite of our conceits and we cause the problems we need to solve... when the solution is, don't cause the f'n problem in the first place. All of it... reduce population and planning... everything goes away. Utopia has a chance to emerge - It seems like such silly simple arithmetic thinking ... Yet so fantastically dark that Humanity can't get to any such "real" conservatism - not the conservatism of the GOP; that is something else entirely and this is use of the term is not a political distinction presently... Yet, the solution continues to elude when it is right there. Houston...despite the storied history and the irrational nostalgia that people use to justify perpetuation of idiocy as a general aspect of human convention and design/practice of behavior, is a bad idea. Same holds true for Miami... Actually everyone west of the central valley of California... Probably Seattle.... And I wouldn't put anything or anyone along the Gulf, or within the flat estuary reach of the mid Atlantic states... outside of indictment. Boston, NYC.... assholes. Probably some 90% of chosen 'humanity-depots' around the world-over, are karmically worthy of some dystopian destiny ... Of course then turning to god in tears when shit happens... What an ass-clown species we are... At least Pompeiians didn't know about geology -

Lol... Models are exerting weight though - They aren't like, "making it up" - haha. I mean, in theory that is - sometimes I wonder if there isn't a secret parameterization of the runs to mute global warming appeals at times...because the models seem to go out of their way to normalize hot looks using suspiciously subtle means ... Excluding the world conductors of conspiracy in weather forecast model possibility for the moment ... there's got to be something in the physics beeing sniffed out if the GFS is going to be creating pigs like that vortex it sees D11 ... I was extolling some ideas on why in my usual unable-to-be-read loquacity a few posts ago.. Anyway, it does near ...

Lol - ... heh, it's more of a subtlety than all that ...but sort of - It does present a larger --> smaller scaled neggie interference pattern, tho. It's not so much preventative, that interference is changing the behavior of daily events. I almost think of it as a 'torque budget' in the atmosphere, one that is based entirely upon the very real mathematical governing principle of the coriolis parameter ... and the geophysical limitation that the Earth only spins so fast as a constant in the mechanics ... blah blah popsicle headache. But, what that means is that if the velocity is screaming at the scale of large R-waves, there is less left over or available to corkscrew at the local scales - if that makes any sense. If you go back and look at all the bigs juggernaut bombs of history, the majority of them ( but not all ...) tend to transpire in regimes where you have less fast flow and more buckled flow Another way... If the x(y)-coordinate velocity(s) exceed the z-coordinate evacuation (or upward momentum), the system has difficulty maintaining a columnar structure in the troposphere and blows up into increasing WAA favored structures... - which conceptually that should make sloppy sense per common experience - it's harder to go around corners at higher velocity? The thing is... I have brought this up in the past ...this morphology ...and folks seem to get offended. Like I am taking down their snow chances... Noooo... I know this morphology is taking place - I have no idea what this means to seasonal snow totals, frankly... But, I do suggest that more icing precipitates out of overrunning scenarios than snow... that's just duh. That's a whole 'nother distinction therein too... Like, the fast overall flows don't favor stagnant set ups... So, the 1998 type of 4 day ice storms are probably less likely to occur. Perhaps more similar to what happened in 2017 when we had three .4" sub warning but substantive glazing events...each in and out in 6 hours in the interior. That sort of turn over quick rip is more likely ... We've also seen increased storm translation speeds in general... I mean, that 958 mb hyper bomb that detonated off the Carolinas a couple years ago, and shot SE of the Cape just out of reach to really cause National Guard notice is an example... It's odd to see such exotic depths moving so quickly ... we usually need a cutting system that benefits from interior diabatic heat release to really core out the atmosphere ...1978 ... etc... But, that exotically deep event was benefiting off the scream jet ... having successfully coupled with the diffluence it created... There was another like this last year up near NS/NF traffic zone... 948 or something terrifying of 'Cane province in white cloth... with black eyes and stoic expression at the sight of suffering... The problem is, at high velocities... coupling fluid mechanically gets narrowed... I'm conceptually wandering ... Point is, I'm not saying that shearing out and ripping open S/W's ...if not absorbing them in the high velocity maelstrom, should 86 winter... I'm saying I am anticipating seeing the same shit going on this year.

Can't say I disagree with this notification effort thru yesterday's 12z... 00z, not so much in the Euro, but the GFS hangs on a bit... But In the other thread, I mentioned a couple days ago that D5/6 looked like an "EOF1 bomb" potential for the upper MA to NE states... These baser kinematic structures you're honing in on were evidence back then and as of yesterday - by then D3 ... Maybe like a last season 'threat hurrah' as the summer closes the books and we'll see if this new-ish complexion toward seasonal migration that the operational Euro GFS suddenly paint has legs... Could be a rush job - I think the GFS 528 dm double noded height core amid a continental scoped, sub polar vortex over JB is a bit hard to cough down in late August/early Sept... but, I also covet some personal "science fiction" plausibilities as to why the model is doing that, and it is rooted in evidence spanning the last 6 years... Namely, we've been "continental folding" at transition seasons with unusual proficiency at the books ends of winter. That's John- labeling ...there's no actual identity of that in Meteorological/climate vernacular ...but, I call it that ...it's like super synoptic scaled "Kelvin-Helmholtz" effect. We have velocity surpluses in the mid and upper tropospheric ambience that is tending to kick in very early in transition season, and... lagging unsually long on the way out. The cause is the expanding HC...or in the case of Autumn, the HC expansion as a persistence on-going perpetuated state, is triggering gradient to increase very quickly as the sun's integrate insolation across the hemisphere begins to dim toward the ends of August and particularly...during Sep/Oct ... This increased gradient is directly proportional to the surplus velocity. But why that is important is, the velocity of the jet is "folding" over the top mass of the R-wave fields, and this is increasing/enhancing trough node tendencies earlier in the year of eastern/southern Canada, and also... in May's ... This 'plausibility' is why we have since 2000 experience either synoptic scaled snow chances, or, ... packing pellet virga exploded CU cold waves in Octobers and May some 1/2 if not 2/3rds of the last 20 years worth of transition seasons ...either end. In between? ...DJF/early M .... that HC stuff impinges a whole 'nother issue with raging jet velocities so extreme that it forcing a morphology of precipitation event structures. Anyway, this may seem to have nothing to do with Thursday at this point ...but, it does in the sense that the mechanics are perhaps being exaggerated over what is normal up our way...as these gradient rich events transpire through lingering seasonal warmth and dps... Outside the box thinking a little - In any case, the pattern looks in the 00z run by the Euro to have moved to more a NW flow with some positive shearing ...maybe more whisky line or even MCS-y

Hopefully this splits the LA/TX goal posts and squirts in up the coast from Houston where there is relatively lower/sparser population densities... ...much to the chagrin of the morally responsible dystopian lust audience ... Nav Gem looks rather Isaac Stormin' ..it even has it cork screwing down to cat 3 100 miles from the coast

Actually the Euro/EPS migrate the westerly band some 10 latitude S as well... but ...notice the heights are not really relaxing S of ORD-BOS latitude across the continent; they are reducing due to compression - that's a gradient saturation. That's setting up ( already!!!) ginormous gradient and jet core velocities ( relative to season/calendar) ... One thing for certain, it's going to make for an interesting modeling journey as we turn the corner over the next couple of weeks and beyond...

Well rat's bid... no sooner did I labor an op ed about the lacking real pattern change toward autumn... the GFS goes bonkers - the thing is ...this big vortex over JB with 590 heights jammed clear to almost Chicago is ... is almost terrifyingly indicative of a planet in peril

Man that thing looks insidious ... but ... sometimes comparatively weak TCs in that region of the Atlantic basin can achieve some exotic cloud heights .. only to have an aircraft get in there and find out it’s 50 kts