Typhoon Tip

You guys are funny ... typical typical typical. We get it. but to say so? heh, there's a soup con of bargaining there -

Took the bate, didn't cha ? Trump may be benefiting from an Obama tactic, or not ... , who knows. I would rather jam an ice-pick through my eye-sockets than engage in political vitriol with strangers on social media... Nothing anyone says about their tenets will convince others in a face-less medium of hide-and-go seek intents and purposes, so to do so could not be a bigger act in utter futility.. I was just ribbing Trumpsters... The point I was making, is a society of numb-nuts has been created, and it seems easier to ply that lack of critical thinking ability, overall, in any agenda that requires or wants to gain a following. I sense that JB either does that knowingly, or is just happened to stumble into a favorable time in history where he can use sensationalism tactics to gain his - Nothing else.

Mm... should be 89/63 for most away from the oceanic influence... You may want to set your comfort dial plans accordingly -

yeah.. this thing's momentum is terminating as we type. it doesn't even look like it makes Logan beyond perhaps some g-wave flag wobble... Sat even hints at westerly component helping the fog erosion from the west to perhaps impede its progress up over Essex Co. there is a some kind of low lvl g-wave arcing ahead of it though. the gradient's weak over all so ...breezes will probably flip on shore within 20 clicks of the coast anyway but, this thing appears to be in the process of exhausting momentum. we'll see

For that matter.. all BDs are undular in nature when gets right down to it... There's really a blurred distinction at best clarity between undular phenomenon and DB acceleration under an preexisting environmental static atmosphere. Both are doing the precisely the same thing mechanically... If we want to distinguish them by source ..perhaps depth in the atmosphere... meh, maybe.

I just wanted to annotate this ... Seems I've seen this quite often. It's like 'air-hockey'...where the puck really floats on a cushion of air.. .in this case, a cold core vortex skips off the top of a ridge like it's bouncing off the the top of a balloon.. But it seems to be there is a local-scaled teleconnector behavior where there is one of these near by air masses that are hot. Many eastern CONUS warm episodes will witness one of these things denting over top across central and eastern Canada. It's like if don't see that ... we can question the veracity of the ridge its self ( I wonder )

This BD ... ( or BD like behavior on satellite..) doesn't appear to be gaining latitude.. it appears to be more of a N-->S fist... probably confines to < I-95 .. and I wonder if it makes it all the way S even because there hints that it may be terminating as it is... Interesting watching that this morning...

maybe a late high? I could see that coming in and dimming NE/E coastal zones as far west as 495 ... terminating to nothing...then, the wind comes around at 4pm and flushes the interior to the beaches for a late spike.

yeah...hard to get a bead on details still.. the Euro looks initially like some kind of uinque freak-show explosion is about to erupt up for New England... Being the warmest BL guidance ( synoptic chart suggested ) out of all, it then careens that sharply curved 500 mb surface right down over top and across the area during the evening and overnight. Long track TOR rips from Rutland VT to ORH and ignores hills doing it. hahaha. But, what the model then exposes is that there's not much CAA behind this thing ... a suggestion that's been slowly modifying further for the Sunday/Mon backside environment. This run looks like we're still making 80 Sunday afternoon at this point, if the sun comes out. What I'm getting at is .. it's making me wonder/question the amount of actual lower tropospheric baroclinicity there really is... That could impede and or morph the convection types ... I mean talk about details ... If this thing ends up more of a fast moving ML lapse rate plume with primarily mid level... This may also be the hottest run out of the last three btw follks. Just a comment on that... there are two oddities about the D8 layout I wanted to point out. virtually the entire U.S. S of ND-ME ...everyone, is above 90 F ... That's a pretty rare feat if that verifies, getting that much geographical expanse in a homogenized/same air mass ... not withstanding theta-e I should say. But the model only lays down one isobaric interval between the Gulf Stream off the EC to St Louis MO... Then, another 500 miles west to western KA before exceeding the next. That's a distance of 2,500 K miles with a pressure variance of 8 or 12 mb. The entire region from Des M. IA to ORD-BOS and south has very little wind ... while in the 90s ...all the way down to TX-FL. That in all is a very rare set up. I'm not making a comment as to whether people want that... or what the implications may be to sensible weather and preferences and all that subjective tedium. I'm just saying that parametric layout is unusual/interesting.

This may be time sensitive but ... hi res morning visible loop suggests some form of meso-beta scaled BD is pluming south along and off the NH/NE Ma coasts... Pretty cool lookin' https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

...And we do see that trying in this Euro run, ... more than less supported by the EPS .. D8 thru 10 sees the establishment of westerly escape over the lower Maritimes, which is something that's pretty much not happened at any point since last summer as far as I can tell - 'less it was very brief for whatever reason... Otherwise, troughs and/or closed vortices have been dominating that region, and control our climate indirectly ..at other times, more so, as well. But if the Euro/EPS are right ... mm The other thing is ... the hemisphere is still in a whack state. Look up over Alaska at D8 -10? Holy hell is that a whopper -EPO. Not sure what the may mean for the lower 48 at this time of year, but 'sides whatever that is, that is a freak look - I wonder if any are paying attention to that. I mean, why would we look there now? right - But, typically a -EPO can do one of two things: a it can kink a trough deeply into the Rockies ...and then down stream, we balloon. b if the wave lengths are long and the flow is fast, that can lead to cold spreading east through lower Canada and actually a decent winter look for us. Unfortunately? It's summer. So not sure what to do with that. But take note of that 850 mb plume rattling around underneath that capping suppression and also note that is the warmest the sun angle will be up there ... that's seems perfectly timing an event that challenges some records for interior Alaska. Time to warm it further too, as the 850 warm up rule usually applies ... Magine that? Fairbanks may be warmer than Boston on D10 if those charts fug up eastern NE for any reason -

yeah... but 'still' being the operative word, and whether that stilling can persist. we've seen that featured in guidance in that range a few times recently and they're having difficulty -

EPS is just slightly less than a canonical heat dome though... that's a warm to hot extended out thee 8-billowing into 10

i thought the Euro's overall complexion was a tick lower than the 00z ... still overall, a warm look. either way, it underscores the fragility of that warmth getting this far NE ... I'd say the western OV is the cut-off for higher confidence and anything E of there at our latitude is, to employ a cliche, controlled by butterflies in that look. but I suppose the take away is the two-cycle continuity for a exiting Maritime backing - that's been crippling warm enthusiasts... Even though it hasn't exactly been that cool per se. anyway, it could certainly evolve to more, or less.

NAM/GFS MOS both ticked warmer on the 12z cycle ... BDL is 90/90/90 starting tomorrow ... FIT is 89/89/89... could be an 89.5'er type heat wave for the interior. Logan seems to be waffling run-to-run with the wind direction off the harbor or wobbling flags from out of Cambridge... it's worth 10 F floppage in either direction - I'm not seeing any abvious BDing so it may be a deal where < 10 miles inland. SFC pp is sort of COL-like so sbreezes are a bet

zactly! so taken with a grain of salt ... i think the EML "threshold" is probably different here than over west Texas...where the change in elevation makes the dry-line very shallow and the CIN/desert heat starts like right off the deck.. But as we move east and the bottom drops away ( ...so to speak ) you get deeper BL build up of heat/theta-e homogenation, so the EML need to be "thicker" to be the cap - heh, folks into convective weather types know this but... you want the EML to limit/suppress early bloomers because that allows the sun to really charge that layer below... such that underrunning jetlets and/or veering due to topographical features underneath a CIN breach wipes "Monsons" off the face of the planet. Remember that movie, "King Pin" ? "...I'd sure hate get 'Monson'ed ...' Anyway, not that we'd actually want to see that happen of course. This has the look ( so far ) as orangey cauliflower heads over the hilly terrain by 11:15 am when peering NW from a eastern MA

Was just looking at some of the GFS' point soundings and the SB CAPEs are anomalously large for this region.. Particularly down in PA ... where it approaches the mid 4Ks ... but even up in northern Massachusetts the GFS is sporting nearly 3000 SB CAPE at 18z Saturday. The EML question is a good one ... because that would be nice ( for tor enthusiasts..). But a concern for severe ... with climate-saturated CAPE and lapse rates > 7 C/KM ... hill top triggers might cause things to erupt too early ... in a lower CIN/EML lacking cap I looked around and didn't see much EML sigs in soundings E of Iowa actually.. Course, I'm not sure the GFS is really good at that sort of thing so that...and these stability indices are all predicated on that models handling.

0-3 km wind is likely 250 degrees ... trust me. With 6 km probably 300 or 310 and mid trop 320-340 ... I mean this can change between now and than but the set up is "like-able" ... Not sure I'd throw the word "impressed" at it - haha

bingo! ... the surrounding total mass-field look makes that whole 'bulge' precarious ... but we'll see.

I still like that convection signaled over the weekend.. The general mechanical synopsis over those two days has persisted in models since posting about it two days ago. The NNW mean deep layer flow ... with west or even west-southwest lower tropospheric winds, is overall a positive directional shear environment. With models amplifying a S/W trough as it dives through there is speed sheer entering later Saturday... The whole of thing is like taking a more typical vectored situation and just rotating it around the dial 45 degrees to achieve the same result. Short version is...storm motion ends up moving more SE with any super's diving S. Timing is critical, duh.. usual caveats apply. I'm not sure which day is more favored. It actually looks like 10pm to 2am late Saturday... but, the mechanical forcing may be strong enough because in addition to these shear structures there are height falls associated with the trough dive - should that occur over residual CAPE .. have to remember, ML lapse rates always over perform. Those sensitivities could spark early action later Sat afternoon - also.. a pre ftrough but it's probably hard-ish to do that along a SW-NE axis over the ridge lines of the Greens and Whites so ... again, too many details - heh But goes without saying at D3/4 ..these details/considerations are less clear. I mean the trough could still speed up or slow down by 6 hours ( say ).. Or, weaken..

Yeah... I'm seeing that too - Not so much this week's deal ... which is probably 88 to 90.3 tedium... And for some and not all, too. But the Euro/EPS sort of favor D6 - 9 for 90 ... 92 ... It's low confidence for me though. For one, ..as is in the run it looks fragile. The flow has definitely morphed into the typical summer-seasonal nebular look .. with weakish gradients and fractured ridge trough identities. While that's doing so ... the main mass of the continental heat is still tending to shunt south toward the mid Atllantic .. So, we're getting fringed by +16C 850mb therms. It seems the meandering wave structures in run and run-to-run probably means we could lose that signal pretty easily on the next...etc.etc. .. wouldn't take much of a perturbation

Didn't clear anything up ... maybe write better on your previous attempt? "then it's down from there!" ... sounds to everyone like you mean the rest of the summer .. To each is own, and maybe you didn't mean to wish shit away ... but, there is a lot of that going on in this particular public engagement. I keep reading posters say things like ' in 2 days the days get shorter and we're almost out ' .. .which is weirdly anachronistic to societal ways and means adds evidence to my hypothesis, that this group of users is concentrated abnormality period ha! ... that's A ... but B, when one is conditionalizing their statements with what amounts to ' phew! it's almost over' that is wishing the time away... But again... if folks need to null segments of their life to get past summer - do as they may ...

This is called 'wishing the time away' one day you'll regret doing that ... particularly if you succeed in finding that perception .. just sayn

Echoing Brian ... been mention that same tenor and reasons why as of late That said another insidious repeating theme that has been taking place is this opposite pattern immediately morphing upon the posting veracious arguments ... Jesus Christ, but we'll see if this has legs

ah... shucks.. need to either slow that up or speed it up and we'd bee in business over the weekend -