Typhoon Tip

Can't say I blame TPC for any reticence to pull the trigger on 95 L ... despite the fact that it presently can be objectively characterized as having a coherently closed circulation ... whirling around at some 40 kts! It's hard to tout a TC that's not even wearing a bikini bottom - There's yet again ... a sputtering problem - not just with this feature, across the whole Basin. It's funny that despite all peregrinations to date, as well as having endured the lies of various zealous guidance - take your pick .. they're all guilty at one cycle run or another - giving rise to said posting exuberance ... we find our selves right back here where we all started 2 weeks ago: sputtering as a plague that never went away. This season's just challenged severely at maintaining cohesive TC integrity ... we've developed one - it's really quite remarkable we had a major at all frankly. We'll see what would-be "Sally" can do. Since we've already endured a major category system closer to the Americas there may be some argument for precedence ...that we are escaping mitigation west of .. oh 70 W or so. But out there in the MDR... it's been a raging easterly shear anomaly the whole time it seems. It's like there is an actual jet stream, just like we observe in the W-E latitudes of the westerlies, but fire hosing E-W over 20 N amid the MDR. Don't get me started on why that is doing that... I have plenty of sci-fi writing skills and can root it enough real plausibility - Anyway, I am also taking note that we've lost the favorable hemispheric -scaled VV potential ... Despite the current MJO wave lacking significant coherence, the VVP found here, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml shows DVM flashed over the Basin ...which I have found to reasonably well correlate not so much to specific TCs, but as a development indicator. I am wondering if this may be related to why the recent modeling trends have sort of abandoned the activity rather abruptly over the last couple of days. The GGEM ..which is a trigger happy guidance to begin with, all but attempts to shut the season down recently. ... but all the guidance are backing off. The 00z Euro is definitely not nearly as emphatic with anything after going forward - completely discontinuing like a cruel social-media ghosting -

How does the Euro do that... It's got essentially a positive height anomaly S of 50 N some 70% of the time, yet manages to keep NE specifically colder than normal -

Quick thought on TD 19... Katrina sends messages from the grave not to count on southern Florida's interesting geology to be as inhibitory as the standard decay/inhibition forcing that occurs when TCs encounter land. Few may recall... Katrina actually maintained intensity and then gained 10kts of velocity strength prior to even leaving the southern Penn en route to the Loop Current ... That region is flat, and the ground is humid with deep soil moisture and most importantly, is not larger than the circulation domain of the cyclone, so arms and inflow jets can still access some latent heat source... particularly if TD 19 were to stay S of Miam and only partially eclipse .. I'm curious if this one may gain enough strength/momentum like Katrina did to withstand Florida's southern flat wet hot land... heh

This operational GFS run seems to try and 'back' winter in from the Maritimes ... eroding backward against the western ridge... each trough ablation carves the westerlies a little more SW... It's bringing an early winter over eastern Canada for starters...but for our proximity to that region of the hemisphere is sideswiping us with gradually more then just swiping across subsequent all three ... The last hard freezes. But the problem I have with that is particular to the GFS. It keeps engineering these ginormous gaps in the hypsometric depths to thickness ratios. The thickness will by physics always be less than the geo -p hgts, but... not 30 dam. wow ... 576 dm heights with a 546 thickness cutting underneath is appearing suspiciously too anxious to cool of the lower troposphere. I bet that normalizes some... That said, it's nesting error really...because the gist of early and heavy cold signaling is something that fits with recent decadal trends for autumns... ( springs, too in the lagged seasonal thing..), the former of which then gets compensated once the gradient really gets sloped later in DJF .. blah blab. Cross the bridge.. but in the mean time, it's like the GFS sniffs it out but then oversells it at the same time. interesting...

lol -

That region over the lower/outer Bahama is cool. It had no rotation this morning...now you can see how it's just started imploding

It's a hypothesis... but one that I think is growing in 'weight' - to use your term there, because the emerging observation pool of data supports it. Again, the last notable ENSO anomalies have been presenting less impacts around the world's climate impact known regions. And, I admit to some conceit in that I formulated this notion...of attenuating ENSO in GW years prior to observing these observations emerge - and it is tougher to ignore one's own idea when the environment starts bolting the scaffolding of the theoretics together - that's called the scientific process: formulate foresight; experimentation; data either supports or refutes said foresight... In this case, a super nino with comparatively blase planetary effects/affects was papered and refereed ...etc.. I think the crucial value of ENSO as a predictive tool was more important back prior to the expansion of the HC ...notable and discussed here ( note: CH 5 ): https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ If one absorbs that information and balances it across the last 20 years of existential atmospheric awareness ... I think they can sense a correlation .. mm hm.

Idiocracy is sweeping the technological helms of society .. People are not learning about reality anymore... They are "learning how to use tech" to pass tests and get ahead to get wealthy and laid... They don't think - and that is addling intellectual brain-trust of societies(y's) gears and buttons and levers, levels of decision and operations and everything else, start erroring and acting buggy... Eventually, no one will actually know how anything actually works... such that if something modulates in the onion layer of dependent tech that all this is built upon in strata -codependency framework, the whole thing risks coming to a halt while manuals are probed and people look up terminology in the dictionary along the way because they barely can read. ahaha. 'duh, how does the satellite work again ' ...' oh, you just just push this button, and a factory manufactures it somehow...and den ders dis system ...oh yeah! I think it's called Nassau and it's an island? it launches a rocket and ...." ... 'oh yeah, right - and then we push this button and a hurricane is caused by gay marriage'

Despite all "social injustice" and "economic iniquities" ... surplus conveniences allowing people to create drama and hostility instead of focusing energy on survival - does also sort of back us into a proof that if you take out that necessity, what remains is a douche-bag species. But, douche-bag is crass. Attempting something more intellectual: we are not as separated from the primal brain state of less evolved ( mentally ) species. I mean, everything else alive steals. Cheats. Murders. We just evolved morality meshing over eons to draw a cooperative approach to environmental/survival problem sharing/solving, because we are weak physically...with less built in protections and wherewithal through our descendancy. Cooperation and 'teamwork' is the human adaptation that really separates us from other animals that are non- anthropoda ( ants and bees). The catch-22 of technology in the "socio-technological evolutionary experiment" is that the advantages that we indulge and orgasm in, effectively cut the 750,000 years of evolutionary strings that were evolved along the way that we necessarily were dependent upon as our specific evolutionary need, to survive as a species. People risk becoming estranged and marginalized in such realms that turn off the instinct; depression ...and a spectrum psychological disorders become increasingly more prevalent ...and no one with an intelligence worth a salt would argue that lone shootings in shopping malls and schools is anything other than a social crisis precipitating out of that catch-22... ( my opinion on this particular evidence). Too many populous spanning too many generations ...living in relative convenience and provision accessibility is enabling the loss of the principles and virtuosities that kept communities of lore unilateral/bipartisan for their conception of what was really important, and how to function and operate as a collective cooperation. There was tension along the way. Things were never perfect. Civil wars are still a part of human history, and wars abroad for that matter... But, there is a separate emergent phenomenon of separatism that is occurring right down to the individual scope and scale.. Being accentuated and poked like a proverbial stick in a yellow jacket's nest, and it is tearing at the ( abused trope incoming - ) fabric of society(ies) threads by said convenience and provision addling. You didn't ask for this rant - no... And I don't claim to be a sociologist by education or trade. But, I agree with Steve there in 'principle' about stimulus ...namely, too much of it. I have not lived as long as our seniors in this social mediasphere destination...but, I am mid aged at this point. I have suffered enough decades along sides the vicissitudes of humanities shenanigans to have learned apriori ...and can do an intuitive arithmetic ...that throwing advantages and access at unfiltered and more times than not, unscrupulously mangled minds ... information at the 90th percentile of population en masse, is a catch-22 because the erosive power of enabling vitriol leads to this sort of social break down of norms...and unfortunately... when seating that phenomenon in a population surplus and other more veracious environmental threats looming as an over arcing thematic problem for actual life on this planet ( forget Humanity for -f sake! ), that only adds to sense of urgency to a world that needs 0 more stress. You know " being in the weeds " is a metaphor for when one is so caught up in a problem's whirling components, too much so. They can't see the bigger picture any longer and get sort of bogged down in the mire of unsolvability ... We are in the weeds as a world, and those weeds are tanned and waving in arid expanse of bereft conditional sociopathy, while a dry based thunder cloud spines blue pulses to the horizon ... All these various forms of aggrandized/fearing apocalypse'... no one would have thunk that technology could be the slow moving fires in which we currently burn.

Relative to normal, 'bath water' by hyperbole, yes. But that is crucial. Present climate is still being defined by data and arithmetic ..but, that doesn't mean the climate hasn't changed - it just means the conventions of empirical data have yet to formulate a proof. In this case...we've wend the Global paradigm into one where these modes of ENSO variances (along a mere 15 deg latitude, N-S of the Equator ) do not appear as significantly motivating forces in the gestalt ( synergistic hemispheric circulation ) of the atmosphere. By comparison to your 2nd bolded statement, those scalar measures are too comparatively small. It doesn't add up at just the observational scale ...where intuition, apriori experience, and education, all provide a kind of conceptual arithmetic - how can they? How does such a small band of wind driven SST anomalies, out force the entire expanse of the World's oceanic heat surplus - which is in fact measurable. My opinion out among the vitriol of this modern, "arrestingly incisive" era of the social mediaspheric hoi polloi .. means nothing, but, it seems increasingly more suspicious to me that the ENSO variances we are clocking are more like emerging the other way around... The imposing fractals of the outside total "gestaltic" (not a word) atmospheric eddy is driving these things into existence. And then of course folks, perhaps for being less aware .. see the warm or cool SSTs unfolding and start oopsing their seasonal forecast the wrong way. ... ha, that'd be awesome - might offer a nice explanation as to why seasonal outlooks, look opposite what happened - huh? Half tongue in cheek there We've already began to see this muting effect tho. The last couple of ENSO variances did not correlate as well, with observed Global impacts along normal climate problem regions blase. That super nino 5 years ago? Joke - ...that sucker shoulda altered Earth's orbital trajectory and sent Gravity Waves to the Andromeda galaxy by the drama of El Nino inherited from the 1990s press-kit. It sparked fireflies; because it occurred already in a sea of planetary warm spotlights. The 2nd bold should modulate the significance of the third bold. It does for me... Because of 2, toss 3. I toss all seasonal outlooks based upon ENSOs - perhaps out of hyperbolic frustration to some degree ( pun intended). In the "arithmetic" of balancing forces, we are in a new climate paradigm and it's just going to take a generation or two to sink in. ENSO is not nearly as important in the total modulation ... not when it is tucked squarely and securely deep inside a HC that has expanded enough to where said ENSO physics are not "as" interactive with the westerlies... It's going to be a rinse repeat winter... fast flow!!! fast fast fast. Probably, more at or even exceeded ground-based flight velocities being observed over the past several seasons - some close to sonic speeds yet again, reported by routine Global traffic demography... 8 to 12 isohypsotic gradients betwee SPVs and ambien heights < 40th parallel ... with 130 kts of wind and S/W's so overwhelmed by the large scale torque focusing, there is no mechanics left and they get lost in the flow and open up as yet more fast motion blown open QPF smears that strafe across continents at 40 to 60 kts... The interesting thing, ... bomb frequency will be down, but...those bombs that do form, will have hurricane pressure depths and 70 kts cold conveyor wind PGF responses - like what happened in NF last year... that was a classic high velocity compression bomb event. Thing is... how this drives seasonal snow vs rain, or precipitation totals is unclear. I don't think it does ... yet. I think we still have ample cold around for snow - if that's one focus. But I also think we favor more ice storms.

Bump ... I think we're seeing these large scale track influences playing out - ...Yeah, I know. Sucks to make the right, albeit hated call thus wantonly ignored call so early, dooming a whole season so early in the game. Any devotion based upon delusion and allowing one to be beguiled along the way into wasting more time waiting. You are only given what... 70 .. 80... 100 years if you're super lucky - thanks for charitably donating 2.5 months of your existence with zero chance for anything in return - gosh your kind. lol. Kidding but seriously, these sort violent recurve scenarios? They were easily envisioned as a seasonal limitation ... back in June really, as a base canvas p.o.s. season problem. The thing is, it really was interesting that three weak and or vestigial systems did come up along the coast. It was as though those were "getting lucky," as a less sophisticated labeling, because the governing biases as described above .. they just managed to temporarily break down during late June through early August during those passages. Transiently ...there were a favorable steering field scenarios that lasted in some case ... 2 days - just long enough to guide tracks closer in. But, that 'luck,' having occurred three times over, sort of set a precedence for 'getting lucky' in itself - ha. I gambler rolls sevens on a Fire bet at Craps three times, he's likely to draw other betters to the table. However, I find it harder to envision getting lucky going forward. The seasonal migration of heights has already began in the models. This is imposing an abruptly hostile ... really physically impossible look. You can see higher compression/gradient anomalies ( relative to this early in the season and endemic to the last 8 to 10 years of climate) already pressing south and lengthening the R-wave structures, increasing the velocities... all of which are manifesting as progressive synoptic wave behavior with winds so strong it makes the curvature harder ... that's what happens when you have fast flow. It stretches in the W-E coordinate...etc.. This is why storm behavior over the last 10 years have demoed more and more fast motion and shredded systems. It tends to more open QPF loading in models, moving quickly along... And those systems that do time and place jet cross sections exquisitely in a narrowed margin for error, do bomb, but are bombs moving 40 kts by a locations - odd.... digress, but typically 'bombs' slow down. Those Dec '92 type storms are getting increasingly harder to find.

you could go for a run and end up in the warm sector the speed that things movin' along with -lol

We're verifying the hydro concerns as planned ... just a bit higher up the coast than - Man... D.C.'s western beltway and 'burbs got clocked with training water-boarding downpours

changing gears for a moment ... it's likely the Euro's over doing things with the scale of that ginormous out-of-season trough ... and ultimately amount of depth degrees it ends up with the 850 mb ... but, even accounting for that, it's still got a pretty solid radiational cooling to frost look for the seasons first from the Lakes to NE/upper OV regions ... prompting me to check. Just based on this if there are some sparkling car-tops out there D8 or so it would behind schedule for N (?) but as much as a week or more ahead of schedule for southern zones. c/o Cornell Univ

Thing is... BDL... BED, BOS ...they're all putting up WB's of 73 to 77 anyway - ...

The highest ASOS DP I've seen this year... what a pee-soup mess out there - KASH 2.0m Temperature 78.8° F 80.6 at 16:50 66.0 at 10:56 86.0 at 19:56 66.0 at 10:56 2.0m Dew Point 78.8° F 78.8 at 17:40 59.0 at 0:45 78.8 at 17:40 57.2 at 21:25 2.0m Wet bulb temperature 78.8° F 78.8 at 17:40 62.7 at 3:45 78.8 at 17:40 62.7 at 3:45

Okay yeah ...I actually wasn't living in this region of the country until mid way 1984 ... hense, why I qualified that with, "I am not sure though" lol But, by the time the SYZYGY event took place tho, there were several winters of cruel banality - so I think the point of being a focus by virtue of there simply not having been anything going on across an extended period of time, should have some psycho-babble usefulness...maybe. We all know it doesn't take long in this social media sphere for pathos to get going .. requiring doubling up on XANAX and Demerol if a winter so much as waits a single f'n modeling cycle to show a societal halting yard-stick bomb on ISP ...So, going 3 winters of unceremonious boredom amid a back-drop of mid 1980s conservatism's cultural of spirit arresting toe-the-line conformity to offer any other sense of poetic freedom ... (how did society get through that era avoiding a collective group psychological nuclear war suicide bid may be the greatest unsung achievement of Humanity there is...) might have encouraged a "sense" and longing for grandiosity once that early January 1987 (finally!) arrived.

There's been a strange 'emergent' pattern of miss-direction by all atmospheric constituencies for like 18 months. I'm seeing these weird offset coincidences. Earlier this season ... we had two or perhaps three trough incursions into the 80 W .. almost as vestigial 'shear axis,' but still strong enough to impose a S-N steering flow along the EC and/or astride the coast from Florida all the way to Maine. And during all of those, a paltry TC or it's remnants (being overly designated out of PR/warning system protocols ) were sucked up into that flow. That sort of 'implied' a seasonal precedence for getting the job done? As for any MDR Verdi express, and seasonal trend thus supporting, lets capture one and course work it into that favorable repetition. Nope ... Winters have been doing miss-directions for a different reality of reasons .. but it's happening everywhere in space and time, where ominous signals portend an eerie future where nothing ultimately happens. Interesting...

Another valid point of snark ... Despite my own recent hints at interest if not exuberance for Paulette and or Rene... presently? These two are 'sputtering' ... it's like the last week was an attempt to fool people into paying attention while sneakily still sputtering - haha

As an aside ... just a snark observation. This last week of modeling and still, is quintessentially perfect for NOT impacting the eastern seaboard from any MDR source as can possibly be constructed by whatever director ultimately runs the tropical show every year. LOL. Steering fields show weaknesses everywhere, such that objects cannot maintain un-perturbed westerly tracks - necessary to succeed the breadth of the Basin being impetus ... Meanwhile, there is an ongoing .. usually long R-wave structures for this time of the year stretching from the eastern Pacific to England around this side of the NH ... which is code for tendencies for enhanced W-E mid and upper level tropospheric balanced winds. Any TC that even senses that physical capture almost immediately .. violently careens a recurvature behavior NE-E in the models. See-ya! Could be the most active three weeks of irrelevancy ever observed - thanks for donated a month of your life for nothing. Maybe one of these 'homegrown' features can find least excuse imaginable to impose what you want in your backyard, somewhere else too

Sufficed it is to say, the Atlantic Basin is in a volatile state. Out along the MDR there are multiple individual TC or 'zygote' features that we are collectively already privy. The one coming off Africa, like its immediate predecessor, appears somewhat anomalously large. It may also be situated probability-wise better for evading a polarward track bias ( and 'track' is likely, as this thing's about as definite as any for developing), given to its starting lat/lon being so south. Of the main global models there are .. they all have different handling for this thing for the time being however. Closer to Americas there are now three discrete areas of interesting/Invest ... ? Interesting. This entire region sets over-drafted by a modest/light shear troposphere and obviously, there's plenty of oceanic heat content footing. You know ... things can change in a hurry. "Bob," back in 1991 might be the fastest zygote to designation --> credible threat profiled evolution I can recall.. Were there any faster? I think it went from, "uh, hey guys, take a look at this book-end feature" status clear to Cat 3 in 36 hours or something.. Then there is the eastern GOM this morning and out of nowhere there is cyclonic trend in early satellite/long rad from KTBW. This feature might be interesting to spy if anyone can probe through a longer recording .. like a detective asking to "see the tapes" of the parking lot outside the store where the crime took place. I am not so sure of its spontaneity and/or whether it was identifiable/traceable back to perhaps a designated invest/defunct irrelevant feature. Sometimes these things come in and out of favor for development ..only to haunt later on once there is certainly been established, 0 attention or even memory of them... Spontaneity happens too. I've seen the region over the western Gulf just start turning for no reason (seemingly..). Anyway, the one nearly stationary over the outer Bahamas is actually traceable back to a TUTT that rotted its way W over the last three days or so... at least per my own recollection. It's rare for TUTTs to drill their way down to the surface an acquire characteristics because they have to overcome the depth of the atmosphere... plus their own thermodynamic engines have to convert from cold to warm cores; which takes the known age of the visible cosmos to do... Sometimes they do though if given a long enough. Usually, the areal circumvallate sort of loses momentum while the core increasingly teems with bubbling CB activity ..and then transitions from the inside out... This one seems close..

With the next two waves coming off Africa lower in latitude might make the difference in evading an unusually meridional flow structure out there in the Atlantic. I thought Paulette was going to correct to the left frankly and it just does not seem like that’s destined to happen… It was not without precedent we’ve been doing it all season it’s just not gonna happen this time with that one. The hell knows what’s going to happen to Renee… It looks like the models can’t resist some kind of binary interaction with Paulette and it’s screwing up their track guidance with Renee because there’s all kinds of weird solution spraying all over the basin with that thing

Shot gun

Uh.. ye- perhaps .. I guess? I was being particular to SNE. I lived here in the 1980s and my butt is still sore and am still in counseling - There was a one event in January of 1986 or 1987 ... actually there were a couple spanning the 1985 to 1990 time span that did this, where eastern Massachusetts and abutting SE NH were all placed securely and snuggly inside Blizzard watch, 4th period... with NWS tickers running across the bottom of screen speaking of power outages and damaging winds in white out snow... The gaiety and good moods this inspired would have made heroine envious - ... nothing One of them was not only partly sunny come go time, but boy lemme tell you, the -9 F cryo- wind prior to this modern culture of canceling everything under the sun over flurries ... really made it! Blistering-blackening faces when walking in mocking quiescence that was supposed to be a week off from school with n-guard snow throwers coming down streets ... Never forgave Walter for that - lol. Something kept happening ... it may have been the state of the art of modeling in that era, but D4 to 7 always had storms too far NW coming off the mid Atlantic.. I can think of a few plausible reasons for why... Be it too much ridging in the western Atlantic. Overly proficiently phasing streams... etc... all these can cause storms to error too far NW. Either way there was a string of busts that were peculiarly similar .. amid the other storm types... Not all storms failed in that era. There was one positive bust that was pretty special. ...early February in '86 I think. We had a forecast for 1-3" of glop/cold light rain going to drizzle. About 1pm it was 19 F with tiny uniform aggregates polluting the air down to 1/4 vis and I looked at my math teacher, who knew I was a weather dweeb, and she arched her eyebrows slightly and said, " I don't think that's turning to rain.." About 6"'s later and choking down at a 1/32 of a mi clip ...amid blue flash swashes leading chest echoing thunder claps, they closed the slopes on Nashoba Valley because of the lightning threat ... I was in the parking lot watching ... actually, 'listening' for my ride to show up, as IP started mixing in... It never really changed to sleet... it sort got half way and visibility came up to 1/2 mi, but it would collapse back to snow and be down to 1/4 mi again... It finally ended as freezing drizzle over a fresh foot of snow around 8pm that night. My old man's commute home from work was 6 hours to get from Arlington Heights to Acton out along Rt 2... It's normally about 22 minutes. I had not seen a bust that prolific for snow since an obscure event in western Michigan not worth mentioning... and didn't see another positive bust so extreme until 1997 ..10 years later. On December 23rd, came the snow-bomb storm. Man... similar situation from a lay-consumer of forecasting though. 1-3" of wet snow and cold light rain... Didn't get the thunderstorm but, we got 7" of snow in back to back hours, book ended by 2-4" per hour snow rates... and in 5 or 6 hours, put down 18" in Acton...and something like 26" up here in Pepperil Mass... Ah...man... may never see that kind of reach around savior again...

yeah...I suppose .. It's hard to find very many write ups about that one without digging thru back-paged web searches .. more so than I care to do. But at the time, it was considered a pretty big deal. It was called "The SYZYGY STORM" storm storm It may just be relative to era; as we've lamented about the 1980s in yore ... thus having a 12-18" snow lopped over a CF fist leading an arm of 55 to 60 mph, cold conveyor gusting in from NE during that particular pathos? It would by acclimation be huge. In fact, it may have been the biggest interior-east event in SNE since 1978 considering those dearth years. I'm not sure though...I think there was a freak early April blizzard back in 1982 ... '84? god, me and dates: can't remember 'em; can't get 'em Anyway, it was also before the climate started changing and we began handing out 12+" snow events like Pez candies. You know I think we've even endured posts over the last 8 years where someone got 15" amidst a 20" pancake event and called the thing a bust? ... It's like wow - how quickly folks get entitled. Lol - This may sound hypocritical to that but ...I think this "up era" that we've been enjoying is different than it's predecessors though. We are definitively and incontrovertibly involved in a climate change that has been both predicted by modeling, and empirically shown, to be hosting increased PWAT - and having exaggerated snow results relative to storm frequency and intensity ( that italic is the whole thing! ) is being missed by many as a separate distinguishing ordeal. In other words, a dearth winter era in this climate may have more precipitation by virtue of the warming atmosphere and increased PWAT going forward ... interesting.