Typhoon Tip

This always happens on Oct 10 ..huh, ...I mean...with that salmon mix zone? That's like riding a winter cyclone up a cold wall, mid winter form ... not just some dynamical core of cat pawing there Here's the problem I'm having with this... I think it is more plausible now, than it was in 1980 [ enter climate modulation/causality here ] For one, ... decadal trend: forget geophysical reasoning/mechanism, it's snowing in Octobers some 1/3 to 1/2 of the years since 2000; prior to then? ... just existentially off the top of the head ...maybe 3 times in 30 years. Something is promoting these early season "folded synoptic" flow constructs - which is just personal labeling of a phenomenon to arc the flow in western Canada and concomitantly plumbing heights S over the eastern continent - as an autumnal affliction.

No ... I was responding to a specific persons... Otherwise? readers that expect to be served instant fun and pleasures without thinking as a way of life -

Couple aspects about SAR CoV-2 that I always think about ... One is, this business of a vaccine - .. hopefully the ballast of the population understands: A vaccine does not cure COVID-19? It only protects individuals, but ... that goes like 'a person is smart, but people are stupid.' It will prevent individuals from getting a particular strain of SAR CoV-2 ( mutation(s)), but society will always have those. The H1N1 outbreak that seemed to "origin" in the spring of 1918 (Kansas), is still with us today. The main arc of the 'outbreak' and uncontrolled horror of that was wrought did so spring of 1918 through to autumn of 1919 ( although I have read that by April of 1919 that was really when new cases become more a sporadic occurrence in smaller enclaves of cities). We are at month 9 give or take a couple of months on the front side, of COVID-19'r wrath - there's evidence like we've all heard that some ancestor of this thing may predate last mid-winter but that's ongoing ... Point being, we are roughly only half the the H1N1 pathogenic gestation. We have advantages that may shorten that time range - but there is a tendency for impatience ... which is utterly rooted faux expectation? What are people thinking there? But that "Spanish Flu" as it became to be known is the ancestral root of these Influenza A and B strains that modern tech perennially still has to modulate new vaccines for every year. It appears likely COVID-19 is destined to the same "population management," but not completely eradicated - it's pathogenicity isn't controllable in that sense. Which by virtue of having some form of control at all, I guess steps it down from crisis mode.. and people can stop wearing masks to run out to the store for f'um eggs. Two is the sociological aspect... Society did return to the previous dynamic ( norm) after the Spanish Flu. I keep hearing this 'dystopian vision' that sounds like headline incendiary rhetoric to me ... that things will 'never be the same same same same...' Bullshit! Since we all know that history is both a reasonable guide, and ... Humanity more typically than not ... will repeat it ... that does not tempt one to envision a future that is inherently responsible to any background risks left smoldering in the aftermath future off this thing. NO way.. when 'threat' falls below criticality ... humans lower fear through time, exposure and familiarity. They'll get back to living lives, at earliest INconvenience to do so... The Meh effect kicks in, almost out of necessity... - and 'managed' public health concerns fit into this backseating tendency. I mean that should just be expected - imho - quite intuitively and apriori -based. So, I am sure I share in this 'worldly' opinion like most with any modicum of introspection ... that are not immediately in"FLU"enced by either CNN or Fox News' wordsmithing headline demagoguery for profit.. that COVID-19 is always going to be there .. but a combination of a working vaccine and familiarity reduces fear and through that pathway society will do exacty what it's done before and 10 years from now this will have been absorbed into the annuls of other failed world-ending lore. I just personally cannot wait to take the leverage out of mass -media's profit zapping

You know .. when I first opined that it was droll-intended.. sort of tongue-in-cheek cynical take on things. But, upon further thought, that whole rah-rah- championing the heroes of yester-millenia, doesn't really (ethically) excuse anything - it is in fact, irrelevantly applied whenever the topic comes up in the context of "yeah, BUT" - SO what?. That whole trope portrait of ancient 40 year-old leathery faced scurvy ridden ... walking both ways ...up hill in blizzards bear-foot while sucking on bacon jerked tobacco vitamins, because they didn't know any better than to us the daily leeches on their hemorrhoids .. What does that have to with people sucking off the entitlement teet of industrial affluence? Nah, it comes off as an auto- response, where/when tactically... one hears some semblance of truth in there ... (which yar, they didn't have our advantages - okay) so they suspend any objective evaluation and assume it's okay to continue engaging in whatever...? Aside from typology, such urban legends usually don't hold up when intellectual weighting of facts or even 'realistic worldly' impressions of history are comparatively involved. Seems tactically morally evasive ... I mean culture is not all bad, no. But frankly, the perils facing humanity ... from environmental horrors looming, to overpopulation giving rise to Pandemics and back... we can't even say these plights are self-chosen, because that central point of 'entitlement' conditions people right passed such introspection or self-restraint. There's no connection ... it's just 'where's my ranch-dressing hose.' We are wandering proverbially sightless through a wonder of extravagant stimuli, programmed to an assumption of delivery like helpless chicks in a nest with their mouths agape waiting for their next tasty meal .. cluelessly salivating. I'm no sociologist .. .but, we take an immensely powerful engine of ingenuity, the collective engineering mind of Humanity ( which in a philosophical sense..is proving to be one of the greatest geological events in planetary history), apply it to a natural setting submerged in volatile and reactive chemistries, and with all that potential ... out pops hero educators struggling to make ends meet, and Wall Street, demagogue presidents, and would it even shock if future historians uncover ... cures for ailments that were kept under wraps because large Pharma would go out of business if managed care no longer required cyclical drug application... List goes on - Not saying that is Jerry or singling out any one or group as doing that... but western culturally rooted modernity's ongoing, teeming interaction ends up painting a distasteful gestalt from a distance.. And, that counterpoint oft employed to justify it .. it is a fallacy at water coolers, parking lots outside of churches, and talk show hosting - it's a culturally evasive tactic to justify a lot of shit. Firstly, that was not true everywhere - no. There were people living into their 90's... three centuries ago. It's a matter of having more of them now, then back then.. yes - And it wouldn't really matter so much ...it really wouldn't. Like I opined in that cynical missive up there ... all 'morality' and 'virtuosity,' these are just human perception constructs.. Sometimes we have to remind ourselves, there are no Natural Laws - like E=MC2, or PV=NRT, or genetic theory..etc..etc - that describe the framework of what we think of as right, wrong, and the value of money. We get caught up in them as having some sort of particular relevancy to the natural order of the cosmos but: Remove humanity, and they do not exist; remove humanity, the former list of physical machinery will always exist. Which should be the bible ? They are infinitely subjective, self-perpetuating illusions that are in part instinctual, in part learned, in a species that has cooperative, socially-oriented dependency built right into their DNA. It's a fascinating philosophical sort of quandary .. because, one can argue completely correctly: that any contrivance of man IS a part of the cosmos too -

It took "me" awhile I know these autocorrects sometimes assume we are dipshit 14-year olds loitering in Mall food courts and insist on running back along sentences to pattern match dipshit speak

I think high altitude smoke assisted this

No one asked .. but I've been wondering if that D5-10 trough might end up more of a Bahama blue pattern when no one was expecting... Particularly because the ridge signal in the west in unusually potent, and I'm wondering if the trough doesn't end up stalling for a bit more W of the mountains .. .setting the state for S conveyor deal - it's not far from that already.

I'm not "arguing" anything - But, that < 40 statement is a falesy ...and so is that relative rare phenomenon that still claims lives today anyway - another false equivalency - I'm not saying life expectancy hasn't benefitted - I was talking about the 'entitlement' and its ugliness. There needs to be some sort of concerted virtuosity involved in the advantages that tech provides ... but no sooner than we evolve this wonder as a species...it's schemed -

And the alternatives and stimuli offered up by technological modernity offer so much more appealing alternatives to feeling accomplished and basing internal spiritual wealth on a pattern of substantive achievement therefrom. wrong: it is an illusion - all of society is based on a vapid participation trophy for that matter. societies of western Industrial derivatives ... man, if it wasn't for the fact that 'morality' and 'virtuality' are also, in themselve, merely human perception-constructs ( that bear no significance to the natural order of reality outside of our own immediate sentience-necessity ...) I'd say all these cultural ilks that derive pleasure and distraction by means of technological orgies are in desperate need of an asteroid impact to force feed them a fragility reminder/humility. The vibe of 'entitlement' that proliferates all interactions at all scope and scales, in the gearing of societies of these convenience-addling ilk ... it's really ugly man. You know, that's high-brow ... 25$ words to describe a petty entitlement that happens once populations get used to electricity and other conveniences- but there really is truth to it..

"Sounds" like he was dancing with the Ozone/stratospheric correlation science - that which relates to sudden stratospheric warming. Smoke is not Ozone - but it does introduce a sub-micron down to molecular-scaled presence in the atmosphere; that may behave similarly. But that's the tip of the iceberg for that science. Slow moving at that. How its presence in the stratosphere relates to the PV ... I wanna say 1980s? But don't quote that... The solar cycle's relationship with that former Ozone circuitry: Solar mins deliver less UV part of the EM spectrum. That reduction lengthens the Ozone residency in the atmosphere - the impetus being ...UV wavelengths break down the Ozone molecular structures. UV cleanses the stratospheric Ozone in a sense.. A blank solar disk summers/autumns (which this is a solar Min summer btw -) preceding those winters, may result in increased Ozone mass ... That is important because Ozone is thermally conductive - So... terminating WAA events from planetary wave dispersal ...both at higher altitudes and latitudes ( that just means warm air arriving ..) infuses/delivers thermal energy into the ambient PV ( polar vortex ), where (then if) there happens to be a conductive efficiency in place, courtesy of a sleeping sun, viola! There is a warming that "suddenly" takes place... It is often accompanied by an immediately leading and/or concurrent U/Z-vector wind anomaly(s), which are probably the result of the arriving planetary wave mechanics showing up as a redistribution in the PV's structure.. But, if this thermal proficiency is not in place, these arriving warm pulses evaporate/disperse radiatively before the medium gas has a chance to absorb kinetically... So, if the mid and high warm pulse of air is present - and this is the part I am less clear on ... - it seems to defy conventional buoyancy arguments, and may begin to "downwell" ... This downward movement of the plume of warm air is crucial in the correlation to the AO ... I have spent hours actually cobbling posts festooned with annotations to demo this in the past... But, I bring it up because this downward motion of the warm plume is often misrepresented and or missed in the conceptual publications I see bandied about the enthusiast and even professional community - be it online, on television ..in science fiction noveling... you name it. People see a warm departure and they pull the SSW card and J. B. used to do this ... making me suspicious over whether he actually knew how the model worked... I can show you plenty of warm blobs in the data set that did not move downward - and guess what...there were no subsequent -AO observed above noise... etc.. But virtually all of those that downwelled, did and the AO made 2 to 3 week excursions negative when the plume descending to approximately the 100 to 200 mb sigma levels. What it does is ... stabilizes the ambient PV and that weakens the storm of it ( so to speak..) breaking down its circulation ... As that occurs, it radially expands S in latitude...and regions above the periphery than experience more DVM nodes and heights blossom --> blocking ensues...etc... -AO Then there has been many papered research efforts relating the QBO phases with that SSW tendency as well... Since the QBO is a fluid mechanical phenomenon, ...guess it doesn't take a huge intuitive leap to see how all that above might have a relationship if they are concurrently happening in the same planetary system - huh. There appears to be a west ( more blocking ) versus easterly phase ( less blocking )? I may have that backwards just off the top of my head... There may be a missing circuit that relates all these together into a seasonal tendency.. And also, in fairness ...this what I researched of this/these subject matter(s) as of 8 years ago - surely enough time to have evolved the understanding further. But, Ozone vs QBO .. both have veracious statistical correlations. Usually when covariance kicks in, I start suspecting there is an "invisible" real driver that relates the two - but who knows. It seems like per my own observation... -- a (QBO(E) + Solar Min) = higher likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(W) + Solar Min) = reduced, but still elevated likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(E) + Solar Max) = reducing more, but still elevated likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(W) + Solar Max) = lowest chance for observing an SSW by "likelihood," means comparing against the longer term frequency - and if I have the E vs W backward, just switch those lol.. Lastly, I don't know what HM was really talking about...I'm just saying it smacks as related to much of this. I also want to point out ...there can be -AO winters that do not have SSW phenomenon observed. There can be +AO winters with a single SSW event and some 2-week period where the AO did fall...but may not have been negative - but the fall characterizes the influence of the former. The problem is, SSWs are just one component in driving total seasonal polar teleconnector/index behavior... It's like the NAO became - imho - overly assessed and popular in the 1990s and the SSW probably will have to go through that meme popularity curve too -

Correct! and to reiterate: "......There's still plenty of usefulness in looking for ( and ... hoping lol - ) -1 SD NAOs that bounce around... For the rip and read forecasting urgency: The virtue of really knowing why the NAO is neggie(posi-) in the means, may be less important than just knowing the NAO is in that mode/modality...." But I extend the notion that "IF" science or special insight ...or flash of insight or miraculously the woman of one's dreams finally returns ... can all point out the NAO's true force-origin, than deterministic forecasting would greatly benefit from that know-how. Imagine... ? Being able to say, " There is a 75% likelihood that the NAO will negative(positive) the third week of October, because of x-y-z in the Pacific transmitting a signal down stream" ?? Furthering yet ... because of wave mechanics, knowing the ridge up there is likely to position west or east based... But agreed, whether it is for responsibly intelligent daily operational efforts in forecasting, or increasing the potency of this social media's addiction to weather drama ... for either "virtuous" cause, taking note of the NAO has practical usefulness. I was not by extension of these philosophies really intending to abase the usefulness of the NAO - though of course ... the implication does bring it down off it's pedestal some. Sure. ( lol ) but no Hypothesis: I just think that the NAO, being inherently downstream of all events in a west to east momentum oriented planetary eddie, cannot really be primary in 'why' there is a snow storm in D.C. It may look that way at a superficial observation, because during or even leading, it is demonstrable on the weather chart, pulling attention to it.. But, the hypothesis presently is that those heights are really emergent from larger/longer scaled wave mechanics; perhaps some sort of lag harmonics from superposition aspects terminating downstream. You know, I've read literature about MJO/atmosphere around the Indian Ocean having lag correlation with the NAO, ...I may have seen it on television Science Channel program too. In both presentations the insight was under the auspices of "we don't know why" - ... I feel hugely confident to the point of averring an outright awareness, that is an example of a transmitted or transitive wave distribution. Adding to that... waves terminating at different rates are arriving from several sources, all the time. All of which constructively or destructively interfering ... And I caught your suggestion/point that ultimately everything is east of you on a rotating spheroid - but hmm.. Said sphere is not a homogenous surface? It has oceans and mountains .. and these differentially disrupt an otherwise "Neptunian" laminar flow. But Greenland is fixed, so it's impact on the atmosphere is fixed... and being a plateau that is some-odd .5 to 1 mile high, it presence formidably. I suspect there is a smaller-scaled yet significant analog ... similar to the atmospheric PNAP bulge that exists over western N/A. Such that as these lag harmonics pass over that geographical region, they get a positive feedback and are thus physically driven to express ridging.

Thing is I’ve noticed the operational GFS has a propensity to lower heights too much on the polar side of the westerlies jet. Cyclonic nodes (hypsometric ) get as deep as 6 to even 10dm too deep in those cores by D7 upon every run. It’s causing an interesting error complexion. In one sense ... the velocities are speeding up; that much is empirical. But the GFS bias is causing it to also speed the flow up because of its own total gradient integral. So it’s adding too much velocity to a speeding up flow. I know this is true purely by nerdy observation focus .. But it nicely accounts for a fairly coherent progressive/stretching the GFS does with its wave handling in the mid and extended range.

Although I know what covariance means in a mathematical context - ... it seems I am failing to get a specific point across to folks: I don't believe there really is a scenario where/whence, " ...Aren't doing us a lot of favors...that's when a -NAO" ... NO, I believe in those scenarios it only appears that former aren't doing the favors... - it's exactly a scenario where it 'appears' the NAO is operating singularly and alone, disconnected... and I just personally don't believe that is really the case. The Pac/PNA/EPO or somehow loading wave kinematics transitively through the medium of N/A and as it then emerges in ridge(trough) expressions up there D-Str and the like ... viola! Looks like the NAO was emerging on its own. Can't make it any simpler than that... Doesn't have to be right ...but I believe it is... We see wave harmonics ( I'll point out - ) all the time cause nodes of constructive and destructive interference that don't come into phase until further down the line... The atmosphere can behave this way as it is a wave schematic. kinda fascinating...

But,... my point is, the negative(positive) NAO in the means, may ( and imho likely IS ..) actually transitively forced to be so based on the Pacific as a transitive (time lag) - it's just that those mechanisms are very subtle at times, ...obscuring and masking the root. Find those roots... we don't need the NAO metric -...because it falsely led the event anyway. The NAO is like looking through the dumpster's content to gather what happened at the party - the problem is...the party's over. Now, if the dumpster keeps filling with the same aftermath ( dumping latent heat into that region where the transitive height tendency is lurking ..., the two will manifest as a blocking mode - but is wrongly attributable as the cause. The lead was the Pac ) then it may have more usefulness in the sense of persistent patterning episodes. I know...it's a revolutionary thinking and who the f* am I, right? Can't say I blame you. I am but a poor boy with drum and a Bachelor's of Science in Meteorology... I am not exactly some kinda postDoctoral rockstar with early consideration for the Nobel Prize for contributions in the area of geophysics ... understood. ...There's still plenty of usefulness in looking for ( and ... hoping lol - ) -1 SD NAOs that bounce around... For the rip and read forecasting urgency: The virtue of really knowing why the NAO is neggie(posi-) in the means, may be less important than just knowing the NAO is in that mode/modality.. for shorter to mid range phenomenon. But a lot of effort and forehead thumb-raking goes on because of the domain's inherent variability overall - models throw up negative(positive) index modes at D6-10 far more whimsically than the EPO for example ( that variability alone sort of suggests its a fragile construct available to butterfly farts) - there is risk in using it. That said, there would be intrinsic value in predicting the NAO at extended leads... whether 6 days, 10 days, or seasonal notwithstanding... D6 is hard enough... D10? Already it's just a ... f'n fantastically stochastic heartache. It's that transitive aspect I was discussing ( I personally feel..) - it's like the whip-end of the unmanned fire hose. But extending this philosophy to even more headachy tortured extremes - if there is any merit/veracity to the "Pac really albeit insidiously hiding its forcing of these NAO variance" model ...it would be useful to physically demonstrate that causal circuitry, because then ...maybe we would have a chance to predict and set the table with that particular metric. Think of it this way, if some aspect of the various Pac mechanics can be closer to highly correlated lag response in the NAO... Than skip the NAO report and just rely on the source. I grow suspicious over decades of tortured vicissitudes of vagarious winds that the Pac is really controlling the NAO ..

Op ed ( not holier than thou): I disagree the problem with winters has been the NAO domain ... but, to each his own until forcibly proven otherwise in most cases - lol... Oh, it's not helping - sure. There are no one-size-fits-all mechanisms driving weather pattern modes - duh. But, as I have outlined ...to the point of ad nauseam ... there are a larger evidenced systemic morphologies ( I am not averiring some personal opine on the matter! ) taking place in the mass balancing at a hemispheric scope and scale - not sure what the dimensional cost is, but it appears they are order of magnitude ( possibly..) more influential. These are planetary scope and scale, actually. And [ blah blah blah ad nauseam here ] reasons, it is causing balanced, geostrophic wind saturation and that is disrupting the previous, underpinning pattern mechanisms ( most born between 1900 and 1990 are more accustomed to) - this is manifesting in numerous ways from Asia and the Indian Ocean to the Americas all the way around the NH winters. The NAO ... ? yeah, it's part of that dizzying array of moving components... but less. Nah, the primary loading pattern for cold into N/A is the EPO and always has been. As a separate concern: The last 20 years has gradually observed a baseline velocity increase ( wind flux mid and upper troposphere), which is stretching/stressing R-wave distribution ... At some point, stretch enough ... the system my "click" into the next 'gearbox cog orientation' ... But, sparing adding that hypothetical popsicle headache to an already mind numbing thumb-swiping missive... the NAO "back drills" as loading pattern, ....as an anomalous scenario from blocking, which if one spatially imagines... blocking gets harder to do with increased wind fields.. as a gestalt if not discretely provable notion. yoo hoo ... We have blocking times, but they are over geographical regions where blocking is more robustly constructed(able) when the surrounding medium is doing so, and the NAO is not one of those. Like, Siberia to the Alaskan sector. ( Just at an orbital conceptual level, by logical convention and definition of literature combined, 'anomalous' means rarified, and rarified means ... not the primary for the purposes of present context. ) And that has to be so; conceptually proven objectively and scientifically from empirical data and math ... retrograde behavior is less common than the west to east motion of jets fields and their embedded wave mechanics propagate within the general eddy momentum. It almost seems silly when really, spiritually coming to grips with that truism, how bought into the NAO 'holy grail' the 1990s popularization seemed to become. The NAO has a contribution in modulating the temperature and to some degree precipitation distribution, which is to say ... > than no effect. Not sure that justifies - assuming this op ed has any truth to it - blaming winters on that factor. ...obviously, there is a glibness about the 'bus stop' internet social media - there's that too... Even Heather Archembault's famous statistical study cited that the PNA had greater statistical confidence interval as a precipitation modulator over eastern N/A... The NAOs were perhaps conditionally correlative... I believe her conclusion offered hypothesis that it was the transition of modes in the NAO. But, I personally think even that is misleading as a leading cause, because those modality (modal inflection points) are driven by the PNA when time-lags are applied; as R-wave commands downstream, the terminating wave signatures will transitively distribute height nodes into that region ( NAO domain space) ..where/whence there ... underlying geophysical feedback augments ridge structures over that region of eastern Canada's eastern archipelago and Greenlands 5000 feet of elevation and so forth, when the transitive tendency arrives. Because this feedback materializes in situ, that casts a kind of immediate impression that the ridge node up there must have formulated in isolation ...but it may not really be the case. The NAO became over-assessing IMHO - old habits and traditions die violently and vitriolically ...

Agree on the "early" vibe- Although, I must also add that every year it seems that I tend to get fooled by the 'early' assessment, and then it turns out what I'm really seeing ...or remembering rather, is that a particular tree or grove of them may be earlier, while the general setting across the country side ends up being about average by mid October. I do think that year to year, the triggering may be differential within the biomass ...but that means there are regions that could even be late, such that the whole forestry ends up the same? Not sure, but around town here, definitely there are even healthier maples showing significant reds and saffron - it's like an abstract artist loaded up a wet brush with that area of the color wheel, and flicked it at a landscape canvassed by broccoli. My 'General Sherman,' a beautiful 250 to 300 year old maple at the corner of my property, with it's 100 foot spanned canopy and 60 some feet of heights, has always maxed color in the 2nd week of October, and it is almost half dyed already - hard to imagine how it is going to stall for two and half weeks to meet with that particular historical e.t.a.; it seems an early max is imminent. But why...? One thing I am noticing of this 'early' character is that there are more reds than I remember, both in the general...and around town. I'm wondering - hypothetically - if we have some compounding factors enticing the early evacuation of certain pigments... like, green going early, and leaving the red behind ...when perhaps the red tends to leave ( normally) more in the same temporal window.. like in general... Obviously not ubiquitous among all species and even down to the tree individual, depending on the climate that year leading in the latter sense. But year to year... This year we have [ maybe ] two distinct ... plausible triggers that are instructing some early releasing of green: Solar minimum and smoke... I noticed that we were starting to just barely tinge prior to the smoke sky, onset from two weeks ago, Then, we pall-blued the heavens over in this unhealthy weary light, and even dimmed down to orb sun on several consecutive days... When all this red pops immediately coming out of that. Now, I tend to be a sucker for cause-and-effect... particularly, as a patterning...and when two unusual events pass through a given natural domain space, I tend to suspect a causality circuitry exists there... Who knows...

.... well they ain't using 'TP' that's for sure with all the shit that's postin' outta dem dar hills ...

Decent temp recovery under way.., 39 last night at 9:30 ... now 54 impressive 76 tomorrow might already seem quite warm after 3 solid days of unrelenting cool wind by day and sparkling car tops at dawns

that's an interesting observation, 'red' ..I was noticing that here, too. It's like biasing in that area of the color-wheel. I was muse/speculating that perhaps the smoked filtration of light might have triggered the evac of the pigmentation associated with green, but the red was left behind..and that might be why? But I'm not/no specialist in the subject matter. Normal years have red anyway, but I'm seeing more red than normal .. at an earlier time -

Funny thing is that was an accidental post... I was going to caption that with, " ...why is it that whenever we see this sort of set up, there is no TC... but when there is a flurry of them stressing NHC, we have this coch-block pattern" But when I came back from my run I realized I must've fat fingered it in before I could type that well deserved and real fact that is totally more true than mere sarcasm

In the meantime ... I'm looking forward to these mid 70s days tomorrow and the next... I also gotta say that trees around town here are tingeing saffron and reds ... not just unhealthy subjects either, all of them... accept the oaks of course... But even some of those have purple in there among the grove complexion a little. This is ahead of schedule by two weeks here. I don't know if this cool snap is having anything to do with that; I'm inclined to say no ..in so far as a triggering mechanism - it seems this was underway prior last week. But I am also wondering if the smoke/UV dimming that took place since early month may also have played a role in triggering ? I'm not sure how pervasive this is in the foliage all over the Lakes, OV and NE regions is, either - it just seems around Middlesex Co, we have healthy maple species en masse showing some personality a bit ahead of schedule here - The 250 year old maple on my property line that I lovingly refer to as 'general sherman' is turning and the sucker usually peaks about Oct 10 ...not sure how it's getting 3 weeks without beating that date but we'll see -

What ... 'Kevin's cannot happisms' or coastals -

I've often thought that altho that early Dec snow last year was within the Met designation of winter that doesn't mean much ... It still to me appeared to really be a part of an autumnal hemispheric setting ...and fitting in with the recent decadal propensity to fold the heights over western Canada ... which tends(ing) to deliver early cold snaps ..etc... A factor that may also be hidden because it is couched in modestly > normal monthly means ..Or not. Octobers and Novembers may actually have been closer to normal or approaching so ...while hosting nested cold incursions that plumb departures some -6 to -12, ....enough so to even snow or be supportive of snow, but rolling out in comparatively briefer time spans - such that by arithmetic weighting, the +3, 10 days intervening "hides" them in the averages..etc.. I feel pretty strongly about that early Dec event as being part of that. I was in careful observance of the southern tier height compression around the time and moving past ( the weeks) of that event; the hypsometric gradient grew steeper over the ambience, as well .. the isohypsotic counts rose by 3 to 6 gradient lines by mid month, and never 'decompressed' until July frankly... kidding a little. Within 10 days or so after that early month slow roller quasi-cut-off last December, that spit out a coastal wave for 9-12", then came through with a mid level snowball to double-dutch us for a total 30 hour stint ... things changed. Commercial air traffic began reporting the unusual ground-based velocities along .. concurrent with the arrival of that apparent gradient compression. And whether it can be proven geo-physically connected or not, it's hard to ignore that the winter sucked as those observations came about. It went on to be a distracted mess of busted ravioli systems and sheared out messes...Or at best, modeling bombs that were always correcting 1000(s) of KM(s) east of original projections when at D7-10 leads ( when/where ensemble signals first began to emerge; the Euro always had Del Marva genesis' ending up flatter or up near NF by D3...etc.. something like that..). I think it is important, but the the thematic arc of winters the past 10 years ( and really ... vestiges of this going back to 2000 ) seems to be more than ephemeral ... showing enough sample size to move the climate in insidious ways. For example, we think of climate in terms of average temperature, #'s of sunny vs cloudy days, precipitation ...wind. Aspect the really are more 'sensible' ... But, any geophysical variable that is an emergent result of the atmospheric machinery can be metrically analyzed. Like, 'geopotential gradient' - there probably is normalized/averaged climate values of these lesser known/esoteric aspects, but it is in that obscure realm where climate changes seems to be more colorful. But, if the 'theme' of winters is changing, and seeing these physical observations to back that .. probably should ignore the possibility that whatever forcing is causing that climate modality, might also do the same for this winters hemisphere.

Wednesday looks like a absolute refined gem - d-slop dandy with low RH and 25 C 2-meter ... the question is, how smoky

Suppositionally - yes.. The NAO could be "transitively" influenced... What we know: The HC is expanded(ing) ... as I've outlined before and it can be found here: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ... note, this publication may be getting onwards to a couple years old, so it may be mirrored and or sophisticated further by follow-up efforts that I am less than aware of - will leave that to the reader research using the "stellar trustworth WWW" that the "intrinsically ethical nature of man" hasn't by any means corrupted -ha.. Anyway, right off the bat .. conceptually, 'what in hades does the Hadley Cell have to do with the NAO, considering the latter domain space is N of the Hadley..?' Directly? nothing... Indirectly? perhaps - The expanding HC causing higher winds in the westerlies ( because there's more in situ gradients between 30N and 70 N in the general hemisphere...), would tend to augment the rest state PNAP structure... Which returning to 101 Synoptics, that features a modest ridge over the terrain of western N/A and a coupled, modest trough down stream over the east. This has to do with forced topographical ascent, turning right by Coriolis ... .and that causes UVM and ridging to evolve... Naturally, if we enhance the westerlies...it is conceptually acceptable to assume these orientations would also be augmented. So, we have a slightly exaggerated ridge it the west, ... coupling wave/balancing we have increasing trough tendencies in the east... Down streams of troughs... we have the transitive higher height response ... and that ignites the -NAO ... But this gets complicated/washed out, as the season grows deeper into winter, and said gradient gets rather extreme... It's like we sinusoidally go the other way with so much maelstrom and high velocity, the balancing locks into the next sign - viola! +PNA winters... with very high velocities situates the NAO blocks east or zonal... tending to reduce the west-based variant. Not all the time... no. but as a base line...? mmm