Typhoon Tip

that's a fascinating assertion actually ... I really had not considered the weighted mean as culprit "emerging" a less than physically plausible arrangement - but yeah.. Is that possible though - can the arithmetic cause a "synergistic" results, that don't happen at the single physical scale of a singular source/guidance member (component) ? I think it can ... See, each ensemble member is 'perturbed' - and by that we don't mean someone is going into the grid with a spoon and giving the mixture a swoosh and then running the model like 10 year old's might think ( lol ..). It means aspects like different convection initiation and sequencing ( for example ..) or different micro physical processes ...perhaps variant assimilation techniques ... etc, are built into a given individual member .. ...blah blah you know this I'm not preaching at you. It's for the general reader.. But, my point is, if a set of ensemble members is intrinsically invalid in a given pattern - or always - and is included in a mean, it's "essence" of implausibility would carry through and effect the mean - that's just basic math. Of course... but I wonder if doing so at the scale and scope of dizzying complexity that goes into these models, might cause huger fractals to emerge and synergize errors that are over the threshold of Terran geophysical likeliness... That's fascinating dude -

The problem is ... climate change has no direct advocate in the form of appealing to one's corporeal senses. Or if so, so passively it can be figuratively written off as just a weird, little forgettable curiosity that'll fail really to compete with the other more pressing urgencies of modernity. Because of this, it is 'insidious' ... expressing its self in nuances so subtle they are undetectable to common daily life.. Like, being still inside the warm sector ...east of a cold front, and the wind just abates. Not impossible... but rare. We should be kissing the WCB up against the baroclinic wall, where it's western mass in being lifted and peeled back into a quasi trowal - ... This? The WCB has escape and detached and gone away, and the fronts still 100 mi west. Is it "just figurative" to wonder if the warmer atmosphere has "room to spare" with surplussing? Probably... but, this thing doesn't even have a very strong lower troposhere cyclonic expression for all that massive mid level power over the lower OV ...whirling about. Yet, the -AO precedes is supposed to = not enough cold to excite steeper baroclinic gradients ... No one is going to notice that ..it's not even "knowable" really. Nuances? ..maybe. Autumn... and all the sugar maple trees felled their leafs a solid and quantifiable three weeks ahead of schedule. Who cared to notice, right ? ... But, counter to most people's intuitive understanding, the reason that happens - recently papered - was a surplus in growth potential met during the preceding summer. See...there is a limit to the amount of growth potential a species can achieve, and once that is reached, ... that has been recently found to be a key trigger in 'when' chloryph. leaves and flushing begins ... It just so happens, too, that it has always better coincided with the solar and cooling timing, respectively. Of course... Species evolved in constant solar cycle, and climate that allowed adaptation rates. But these warming summers exceed the latter, and combining that with a C02 thickening atmosphere ... enables ( ironically) the growth potential and maples .. they were flying in a fast jet and landed early All the snow has melted here on any flat surfaces around this bend of Rt 2, and in fact, a goodly 2/3rd of the curb side berm mass has vanished for this warm swash event... Yet the lawns and fields exposed? GREEN. ... no. Flora does not respond that quickly. The fact is, it was never gone into dormancy in the first place. We've just been though 10 days of neg departures, in which we laid down a foot to foot and half of snow... and had a few mornings in the single digits... Snow melts in 6 to 12 hours... green lawns. Who notices .. who cares. These are the idiosyncrasies that are "easily" explained .. thus dismissed, ..and the explanations are even clad. They really are... But, to the astute observer... they are still unusual, and the frequency of these 'under-the-radarisms' are increasing. That's how this works...

Im sure this has come up but ... does anyone know why the NWS changed public access radar displays - what’s their goal in doing this particular migration ??

That weak sauce ridgiing south of Greenland? A week ago the models had that as a better formed block. Faux NAO blocks go to nothing and now this operational GFS run goes all the way out of 7 January and there’s no sign across conus of any kind of -NAO climate flow whatsoever. I don’t know we just seem to have trouble with any standing NAO in the models and I think a lot of it has to do with velocity saturation in the general ambience of the whole circulation system. I mean it gets amazing to consider the AO It’s so negative… Yet it’s counterpart EPO and NAO domain spaces have trouble formulating blocking... at what point are peoples eyebrows going to raise hello. It appears we are suffering some kind of bizarre anomaly where the AO is very large like it’s going negative but it’s not weak despite collapsing south in latitude ; the flow around the terminus is still very strong and fast and it’s inherently going against curved surfaces so you can’t formulate blocking that way… Fascinating in a not so pleasing way

No argument from me ... Not sure about the transition/timing though. Guess that's typical. I'm just not ever trusting or confident in the handling of NAO formats for blocking. That has never been well handled ever ... period. at D7 ...let along 10. It's magnitude, and placement...have disparate verification that don't even appear to be dependent on one another. It could be -1... -3... while, west, neutral or easterly biased... No correlation with one another, and only poorly correlated to whatever mean/guidance ensemble system is sniffing, too. The -AO over-arching is where I side with the "blocking" ... The current AO sell at the GEFs store kicks-in around NYs ... with concerted plummet thereafter. The members run astray toward latter week 2, but for the most part stay negative. The mean appears pretty deep though - around neg 2 or even neg 3. That may be pulling the EPO and NAO's down more so than they are actually negative? Something to consider, because they share domain space in partiality. The operatoonal Euro and GFS .. thru D10 don't really look that negative up there ..they have a ridging, but it appears more subtropical in nature perhaps overlapping the lower domain lip of the NAO space. Not a bona fide -NAO look in the D7-10 for those... That' getting into the first week of Jan so.. I do wonder if the NAO part of this proves a sore butt red herring yet again... And the AO in conjunction with oscillations in the PNAP may parlay better. Either way, no one's gon' give a ratz ass if it's snow off either scenario. lol ...it's like okay, fine make the fugger happen.

Yup - for some it is like that... for most, it is not - For the record, ( not that my opinion means jack shit ...) ... I agree that society(s) et al should be masking and distancing, and working on 110% reactor power toward finding vaccines - I've maintained from the get go: why engender all this technological wherewithal and then not use it ...? we can't just sit around on our hands enjoying the spoils of it, while shit's taking lives. That's not gon' work neither. That's terrible macro-morality and feckless as a human culture, and if we do that...we deserve a tomb stone scribed 'opulence' in the rock for aliens to happen by and go, "looks like we got another Fermi Paradox result over here ladies and gentlemen". It's not who we are as a species - so it is hoped... Some are like that but let's not get into that - most aren't. Anyway, I was just op -edding over the mechanizing for profit, and herding of the masses into profit potential ... using fear-sentiments and reactionary/incendiary rhetorical manipulation by big media as the sheep dogs.

That's the most likely progression of inconvenience the average joe and marry will go through ... I'm assuming covid-19 ? Phones, PC's and televisions ... Oh My!!!! These are the metaphorical lions, tigers and bears of the modernity. They are monsters in surrealism that are presently guiding the modern experience, and perception ( faux) about Nature. It just makes me roll eyes at every turn... Look out the window ( not 'you' per se - I'm musing here) .. that is how fast "IT" is coming get you. Everything else is inside a drama bubble created by humanity that is enabled to do so. There is a truth out there re the spectrum of shit that can come and harm.. of course! But, that reality is eclipsed by the shining light of media histrionics. C-19? It's a flu ... for most, it's inconvenient... for some it's severe... For even less, it is deadly. The media focus on the latter half of this, and there is an insidious(covert) ploy behind doing so. It is a 'soft-conspiracy' when all media works toward the same greed-goal, they end up operating in cooperation though they do not actually arrange or cabal. Rather, happen to be apart of it by convention. That's the softness ... people ( digression ) confuse this form of inadvertenty cooperation as being by functional design - but that's a different issue. Anyway, the general media conglomerate focuses on the dread, because duh - dread sells.. So do fear and sex...etc.. .blah blah.. .we all know that... But they are hiding their gas-lighting for ratings turned into profit intention handling of Pandemia behind a facade of virtue and responsibility, taking advantage of the psychotropic addictive aspect of media stimulation's power ... Hope you feel well soon, Ray. I will tell you... a year ago this last November...about mid month in 2019... I had a progression of symptoms that were text-book C-19 ... This was one month before the Pandemic was officially decreed by WHO and so forth...and the CNN's out there fired up the panic mill ... I have a relative who works in the front line, and she's telling me there's evidence that predates November even ..by months - months! I hadn't had the flu in 20 years... may it was, may it wasn't. But I I was out in a week... Just sayn'

This is the best metric for gauging the scale and degree of the "frustration" quotient in any present 'weather cinema' - .. it's like, wake up in the morning, swipe phone or mouse one's way across their PC interface, land on the subforum's main page, see one of these nostalgia threads have been recalled from the crypts ... no need to look at anything else. Considering this one goes back to Sept 2019 ... that's a pretty telling indictment of the piece-o-shittitude of this current modeling cinema. Yep... time to hide in nostalgia as alternative to present experience

It did that ... but, it also showed between 60 and 108 or so hours, a slightly more proficient phasing between that western SPV elbow and the interloping S/W cutting by to its south. It's just not enough to get that whole mechanical stream interaction to start carving S into the OV ... you'll need that for some late recovery or exit shenanigans up your way. We down here are cooked for the 29th unless two aspects really come into forcing/play: 1) ... the ridging over western Canada starts blossoming in 'arc' depth/ power between 72 and 90-ish hours.. If so, we won't need as much of --> 2) ...the Pac ( said interm. streamer ) injection coming in a lot stronger than it has in the last 24 or so cycles... Yeah... 6 days ago, that was a beast. Then over successive runs it has gradually attenuated and is now sort of paltry ... like a mouse running along within a herd of elephants... It is less likely assimilation will play that much of a role in present tech- era. No, but in principle/concept, a stronger Pac wave can sometimes mechanize the flow on its own... Best bet is to have the western Canadian heights rise more significantly like they did in the earlier runs last weekend ... because the Pac wave would concomitantly slope SE more coming to thru 100 W... and said SPV western N/stream elements would be forced to dive south ...and the subsume would be on... In which case, we'd all cash-in on that - it's just that ever since that original handling .. the runs have been seemingly parameterized to not do any of that on purpose lol. Anyway, the 00z Euro did actually show a slightly better constructed post ridge building of those western heights. And we are still technically 5 days away from that stream interfacing/timing.. I guess it is not impossible ..

What's more needed there is a discrete study that statistically correlates larger systemic precipitation events over eastern N/A with North Atlantic Oscillation's specific ranges, during predefined eastward vs midriff vs westerly biased -NAO ( +NAO ). Said study should look at each when: - in static (relatively unchanging mode); - vs when they are changing/ their curves are excited to increase or decrease ( modality ). The blanket usage and assumption routine over the NAO is fodder for too many disagreements and at times 'stressed' vitriol, and an actual science may help clarify matters and usage. Furthering: The only study that I am aware that actually attempted an accredited/discipline approach to the NAO@ 'storms' ... was papered back in the 1990s by Heather Archembault - although I am sure there are other papers that mention it indirectly, of course. I have read her study and its primary focus was the Perennial North American patterns ( PNA)'s mode versus modality. During that read, she mentions as part of her summary efforts, that there is a 'similar' response in the NAO, but that the signal was less clear. That does not mean a more coherent signal cannot be gleaned via a different more focused study/approach. I think the study needs to be had and I really wish it would. Because when the NAO was popularized roughly around the 1980s, weather-related graphical media explosion ... over-sold it to an eagerly receptive audience. That era became weather and science for entertainment as much as informational -> and on and so forth. The timing was right for it's meteoritic rise to fame and celebrity as the key-stone winter cop index. NAO, OOH....wow ..yeah, North + oscillation - sounds cold and scary, caught the tidal wave of free advertisement in that era, and we're left with it still to this day. And it's like institutional racism now... Man, people bounce their heads off the wall assessing it's necessity in forcing cold(warm), wet(dry) scenarios because there's a culture built-in assumption that it does .. And, assuredly it has to, to some degree. It's an indicator of mass field, and since all mass is conserved... it's sign has to mean something. But, the question is, how much or how little, based upon those crucial conditions above - it would go a long way to help guide in when to use it. We can all agree, at least anecdotally, the -NAO has been prevalent < 50% of the time ( and in fairness? Probably less than 25%!) since 2000, a 20 -yr span in which Boston/Logan has verified enough boon-time in snow to demonstrative move the 30-year average an alarming amount given that short period of time. Clearly, then, there must be a disconnect between the subjective perception over the NAO necessity, as it is needed to snow here - when at least at that one location, that's proven untrue. But who are we kidding. It's been that way at all climo majors - Anecdotally ... we all know there is a pretty coherent different large scale forcing in the circulation medium over this quatra-Hemispheric scope and scale depending upon idiosyncrasies in the NAO layout, and therein ... whether the index is rising ( falling ). But, personally... I believe the NAO is loaded ultimately by PNA by R-wave/resonant dispersion down stream ...given time lags. We could probably find the same signal as it is emanating source, from that wave decay model/ origin. Aspects in the atmosphere do not spontaneously emerge, in situ; rather, they are delivered to the location constructively, until thresholds are breached and said location has gathered enough momentum for the phenomenon to blossom into registered observation - the NAO "comes from somewhere" ... it ain't coming from the E in an atmosphere that is bounded by geophysical laws dictating moving the atmosphere from west to east.

I think/thought it was earlier than that last week's guidance envelopment; Christmas cutter contributing..but ... winter enthusiasts should hope two things don't happen: 1) ... this turns into an always on D9 chart and it fails to get into short 'verifiable' terms ( until May 13 of course!) 2) ... it surges into dominance so strong that it's suppression madness. We want -1 NAO's in the mean that fluctuated around 3-5 day periodicity toward positive before collapsing - right in there is the Willy Wonka gold ticket. Not sure about the current PNA --> PNAP variation either - this things starting to chap my nerves.

Firstly ...not really re the 'blocky' - that's so far E it's almost outside of the NAO domain space ...and in fact, that massive SPV eclipsing from the west is so deep it's likely pulling any EOF calculation positive. But I'm glad you posted this polar stereographic view ..because it partially explains now how/why it manages to rip all S/W east of the Maritimes at a high latitude that is anti-climate for -NAOs ... It's not an NAO because of the hugely skewed typology there... As to the other, who said it has to look like anything - ...the argument is posed in concept, that when it doesn't ...it comes into question whether it can be right against the weight of all those ensemble members that thicken the means mass.

I just don't get how competitive the operational version are being against their own ensemble means - very bizarre ... That 12z Euro ( oper ) version cannot happen in that without some rare large scale anomaly - usually a comet impact! lol...no, but maybe if the NAO was exceptionally E-based, but given that position in the mean, it's not...So, it's got to be a pretty dramatic whole-scale systemic outlier... But the GFS is violating principles here in a different way altogether. It's opting to deconstruct blocking and just making it a top heavy subtropical ridge ... I 'guess' anything is possible -

Yup, I'm sure ... the "operational" GFS does not look like it's own ensemble mean signal argues it should -

thanks Dude - Yeah.. . I wanted see this before making this point. It's not exactly salient/novel or anything buuuut,.. the GFS solutions as of late simply do not fit that signal - not from the EPS, nor its own GEFs' -derivatives regarding the NAO domain. I don't even think the Euro operational run does very well either frankly - that 12z solution was a joke. Actually worse than the GFS on that one run. I'm talking about the D5 - 12 range. Something's not right - doesn't add up. tryin' to figure the f'er out

...yeah, 50 mile wide EOF2 tornado ...who's with me!

Course there's the other school of gratifying Schandenfreude when/where there's pan-dimensional grid failure on the one morning of the year where the spirituality of the thing really needs to have it's electricity too, and - oh, wait, there's a word for that, 'GRINCH' ... lol

If it means busting the HWW ? - yup ...100% confidence it will be right

Seriously.. .does anyone have the EPS NAO ??

Gotcha... yeah... and actually, not that you or anyone cares for this opinion but I'm actually quite impressed with this season so far. In fact, if for some quirky reason the 29th comes back to haunt us, and we add? We're killin' it! ...but as is, I'd be happy ending Dec at 19 and change ...( and I bet we get 21 or '2 somehow some way ), we're doing fine. Look, I get it folks. It sucks to time a 9 hour deliberate assault on the one day of year people vest a currier&ives nostalgia around snow and apple cheeks and egg nog and icicles and hot chicks in elf costume ...But I'm lucky in that 2/3rds of my Xmas' have only ever had the hot chicks in elf costumes yeah right... ...I don't carry along expectations for snow on the ground or in the air on that day ...Cutter storms or warm intrusions in the winter are part of life even in New England - it just happens and think of it as a gift, because if you want bigger storms, you have to reset the pattern at some point(s) in time(s).

Screwed lol ... nah, not taking that bate - I will say, if you mean not getting 22" ... I did not get that much- but I got 12.5" which ...you know, when did 12" of snow become some kind of forsaken romance tragedy ...

I disagree with that assessment re La Nina continues to dominate - ... causally? I think the boreal hemispheric circulation is presently passing through, thus, 'mimicking' La Nina and is ephemeral ...in wait of next week when it doesn't yet again look that way, like so many times over the last 50 days. I just feel like there is an agenda to force the perception to lock into an ENSO signal that's not really there - ... just an opinion, and it probably is wrong so chill out. But I have been carefully noting over the last two warm ENSOs,. and the intervening modest cool one, a lack of truer coupling to the ENSO states - this was even noted by papers and NCEP themselves in the NINO discussions during the last warm phase, when it took untl the end of February for said coupling to demo. We have also seen ( anecdotally...) this year on numerous occasions October through early/mid Dec, more times than not the circulation not looking very La Nina like... So, when the writer states, "...continues to dominate..." that leaves me a bit nonplussed -

Great expectations ? I'm at 19.5" of snow here to date, which goes without saying is above normal. Obviously timing is everything... If we'd gale whack the hell outta the region two weeks ago, and then hit that fluffy snow storm tomorrow... tenor changes -

I dunno .. .thing is, I've seen more busts when it comes to 'wind' as an isolated threat metric than I can even keep track of in memory if I cared to even do so .. ugh. Now... admittedly, most HWW that don't materialize are in CAA ... What's funny about that - I've seen some where Warning gusts were met but no warning was issue more times - I think - than a warning wind forecasts have verified. Lol But anyway, of both .. these S gales do seem to stick out in memory as having some impressive canopy leaner wind gusts ...and there is also truth/physics to the notion of SSE winds causing more timbre damage because it's like the environment is not used to that wind direction.. or processed wind flow direction/maintenance

Oceanic SST's are seasonally declining now in the bite waters/ E of Jersey ...I'm not sure that llv jet gets down into the bottom of the sounding if the water temperature is below the WB of the air mass over top. hmm. But hell... there's wind software products and experience so assuredly this has all been considered...