Typhoon Tip

Strongest easterly jet phenomenon in the lower to mid troposphere along and S of the 30th parallel ..due to the strongest HC in observational Meteorological history ... augmenting the NINA state. ...mm possible. I do get the feeling ..at least wonder, if the the "global La Nina" story is not as emphatic as the SST due to exaggerated low level easterly stressing giving the latter a PR goose. It may not be a La Nina in the integral nearly as strongly as those SST anomalies ...meaning considering the total hemispheric interstitial factors that in whole, drives the ENSO states along... Simply put, maybe it's a weak to moderate integrated La Nina on whole, but with a low level trade wind exaggerated SST distribution contained within ... Never be able to separate those two - or at least 'good luck.' Chicken vs egg headache too - I think we're having a northern stream dominated winter ... and that is super-imposing over the extended HC latitude, where the layover is a positive feedback. We we may at times even observe the 'faux' STJ from ...or just a split into Canada/west...when the PNA tries to lapse .. But in those scenarios we're merely splitting the N -stream; southern component ends up with an mixed/ ice storm deal as the main storm profile threat when it does. And, ...lots of height lines and winds as a canvased look. This may be a good year for NJ model lows ... '86 Novie types...

it's had that for like 7 cycles now... Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ... It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it. The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened. Oops. It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though. I mean ...from distant orbit, that is. Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level. Leaves the question out there: could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ? Oh... you just asked about the GFS though

The GEF- based teleconnectors flat-out flag a winter storm in the east ..even as far S as our latitude, over N/A .. .~20th of October -->

Oh .. yeah, I suppose whatever it was doin' up ur way. I figured you came down here to my backyard and assessed the situ and then went back up there prior to dawn ... waited it out, and then claimed I - personally - busted. heh Like I did for you - Anyway, I was toolin' around running errands thinking, boy ..are we gon' frost dunnite. Woke up...gee, frosted. Came in here, and naturally assumed everyone shared in the same exposure of elements that was kissed with last night - It was better when SNE had it's own geographic subforum - I got to be way more self-centered and get away with it.

Oh sure - wasn't intending to mean we can't use climate ... my skepticism triggers at low observation of change I suppose. Just to reiterate for anyone following ... it's a matter of how fast the climate is changing in assessing how obsolete the past has become - We are right ...we are to date talking about 1 degree this and a lot of decimal modulations. That doesn't seem like much? By convention of numerology ( lol ) ... the # 1 is a small digit. But I would caution, therein is risk ...small numbers don't mean small changes to a system - particularly if said system deals with the machinery of a planetary systemic scale, and the endless polynomial terms influencing the synergistic outcome. It may in fact take ginormous change in a system guided by both positively and negatively compensating forces, to actually register a single degree of change in that system - but the boundary of change is being stretched ...will it snap? And, that ginormous change then is like having held back a historic flood with an outmoded dam. The climate is said to be 'changing' faster than the early climate change science predicted it would. Threshold mechanics comes into play as well.. I mean, we may be pushing decimals, then boom ...flash 10 pts .... you don't know. I don't know. We are in unprecedented waters in terms of Human influence in the geophysical environment of the planet. That much is empirical and cannot be argued - the anthropogenic C02 contribution, when added to the normal geological processes, sum to the biggest flux ever - unless that conclusion's been veraciously shown to not be true. Can we imagine ( then ) if we add Siberian permafrost locked Methane to the party - ho man. For all we know, there is lag in response and as the momentum for change itself gets going, we haven't seen thus felt the punch of it yet ... Even using sophistication of ice-coring and trapped-gas chemistry this, and isotope that ... those efforts are reanalyzing past climate change events that were not triggered by that which has ever happened before - to me that gets dubious quickly. So in that same vein/philosophy .. we're trying to use seasonal snow behavior from .proverbial .. 1948 datasets ? heh I may also have a personal bias in the cause-and-effect-relationship observation. In the last 30 years, we are hockey-sticking climate change, ...decimals or not. And in that time, we are seeing suddenly some 60 to 70% of Octobers with at least a chance for synoptic snow and a cornucopia of global outrage for enter alarming observation here [ ]. I think we can use climate of course...but I have that caveat emptor and asterisk sort of in play when I do -

Last night should have been an easy slam dunk for decoupling. I mean if said "bust" was because folks were being heavily MOS or whatever machine guidance reliant, maybe? Driving around last sunset, having just shed 6 degrees in the previous hour under navy blue sky going black, and a wind already going calm, while the synopsis showing a progressive polar high ridging through the area through dawn... heh, and DPs in the 30s. Keep in mind, long nights and superb radiational cooling will also draw moisture out of the atmosphere and the T/TD will couple up and fall in tandem for a couple of hours. I guess it's a matter of relativity-usage. Bothering to look: NAM MOS (MET) for KFIT was putting up a 35 for that location, and according to Mesowest they were 32. I was 33 here about 10 clicks E on Rt poopie... and had a prysm on my car top and tints of white settled upon my neglected lawns leaf litter this morning. I think the over arcing synoptics could have set up expectations.

all the while... The interesting early leaf show and deposition by some species ... I am wondering how much of that was local seasonal climate forcing, or what still. No idea. I am not particularly well versed in that science and am too lazy - in fact... instead of typing what will probably never be read, I could be researching it. But I was wondering if the smoke inundation at high levels might have dimmed enough UV later August into September to trigger sugar maples? My silver maple is still green, but, my neighborhood oaks are doing something interesting. Normally...they turn uniform purply red and then fell brown ..halloween-ish in time. But a lot have leafs that are spotty brown as a straight transition. So, they are either early or unhealthy - I just think in total, and given enough anecdotal accounts all over the Lakes ...OV,/MA and NE this is a real phenomenon. But, here's the kielbasa question - could this signal an and aggressive winter? I dunno - ... that's definitely going to earn a meritus schnitzel badge but I don't see how a solar cycle min that's supposed to be exceptionally low, dimming from smoke, and aggressive hemispheric posturing to load cold into the mid latitudes ( which might also just be the early book-end thing...but just the same -) ...all combined, I don't see how that doesn't parlay to winter. It could be interesting to see how all this lays out ...because the HC stuff isn't going away.

Agreed. I have a thread going somewhere over this, probaby scrolled I didn't see that it grabbed much interest. October .. particularly the latter half was timed this way for a long while now actually. There have been subtle and not-so-subtle cues in the total ambrosia of variables supplied to the (teleconnectors + musical tenor of models + near decadal seasonal persistency)/3 equation that = gut feelings... The 00z Euro and GFS have very similar looks on D7 - that's a shocker...these models have not agreed on that late mid/early ext time range since 2004 . heh But, I caution that this look is too much of a good thing? Here we are only mid October and the first bona fide modeled realization of said 'gut feeling' that emerges has to be compressed with screaming velocities. I dunno it really is clear to me that this a hemisphere trying to rush the polar region south, perhaps prematurely, while the south is not yielding. People ( not you .. just in general ) need to get their heads around this - no fun if the gradient's a ton. Even if there is a big ridge in the west, and deep heights over JB, if there's ..I dunno, 12 hypsometric contours circuitously constructing that total wave space, you ain't getting shit - well... there is overrunning and smeared out shear jobs ... But I mean in terms of Norwegian cyclone- model lows. If they can get going ..they tend to be very fast moving and weaker. So one is strong in that hurried bustle and people think that means this is not right - but no...it just means that if the flow were relaxed, the system would have likely been historic. It's always about amounts of mitigation - but I rant That's been typifying our winters too, btw - hello? We have to relax the flow in the heights, ..at least a litte, such that embedded S/Ws can mechanically force - if the wind outside the S/W is already blowing as fast as the S/W, this can't happen - or not as effectively anyway.

Well ... at the moment SPC hashes out MRGL for central/N NE NY - which based on recent scoring from that particular agency ... guess we can go ahead and ENH that to a comet impact ..,

Yeah...and honestly, the easterly Trade flux anomaly is just something I've recently flashed into the old sci-fi library of personal guess-work hahaha... But what triggered me to speculate on that is observing the behavior out over the Atlantic hurricane season...and the propensity of easterly shear. I used to think of shear as a west problem rearing up in Meteorology. When the wind turned around E at mid levels, look out! Suppose to be a good thing... but his year? It was f'n fire hose man.. mitigation of TW's moving W,, everywhere S of the 30th parallel. I saw TD after TD fail to sustain chimneys because they leaned and torn off with anvils making the Leewards when they were only half way the distance across the Basin... That much is not guesswork, it was actually seen.. Then noticing the west Pacific has been dearthy ( so far) too...particularly the western area of the Pac Basin. Both the Atlantic and the Pacific open areas are more prone to whole-scale balancing of mass load ..whereas closer to the Americas .. obviously the circulation structure changes at large scales might disrupt those 'orderly' field layouts and so we've seen some better growth profiles at home. Interesting stuff... but, what is interesting... the season was forecast' to be above normal in activity and they nailed that!!! The chagrin is that the 70% of it was rotating cumulus clouds oh my god - run for your lives! But the shear seems to be the suspect for the low ISE ... and just from my own records it was easterly.

Factoring in the hyperbolic jest might slow the train down enough for you to hop on board. LOL ... Yeah, no I don't know - Will or someone would.. I think Logan 110" ...? which is probably 200% ..spit ballin' ..I don't really have that area of Meteorology on my mental sleeve. haha

Right ...so we're actually still owing - lol... Nah.. in actuality, since the climate is changing and that is showing up with increased PWAT and totaling everywhere in the world with huge growing sample set of data points over 30 years now ( so don't give me that shit... no you the general reader ), ... the instability in the climate sort of makes any kind of statistical argument for "balancing" bullshit. Balancing what then - ? For all we know...we are heading into a 300" per year winter tendency and that was the first one... you get 4 off.... now we'll get two in a row...then we'll get 3 off... and then 3 in row... then we'll get 10 in row, and then they are all rain 2060 ... Or something else altogether. Point is, climate changing means ... you can't use past climate - ...it's a matter of how fast the change is occurring to determine how obsolete the data really is...

Mmm I wonder ... See, - gosh ur gonna hate this - I think the HC expansion shit is playing a role there. The flow all summer was not relaxing as it typically did ... between 300 years ago, and the year 2002 ( ~ ) for typology/summer eddy climate. We kept up with jet surpluses through the summer ... oh, we were no longer getting 180 kt sustained westerlies at 500 mb between SFO and London...no - but, we were observing anomalous gradient and faster flows by some subtle measures, enough so to sustain Rosby looks too ...The nebularity of summer was showing less entropy ..or 'breakdown' of the R-wave structures than normal So wtf is the point? Well, my point is, something is driving the gradient in the westerlies...and that is where the HC terminates in free-space with the lower Ferrel Cell above the mid latitudes. So, it is likely by logic alone that the HC is still strong ... By convention of that, the easterlies trades underneath the westerlies and the HC are getting augmented by large scale mass-conservation argument alone - perhaps ... This part I admit to more speculation, but from a geophysical meets with "conceptual arithmetic" perspective, it's not a bad notion to wonder if enhancing trade flux is causing sea-surface distribution - and that what we are really seeing is that more so than a systemic La Nina. It matters ... because, that means the gradient distribution in the total hemispheric integral is not likely to trigger the La Nina climatology as readily - at some point... scientific speculation has to considered. I'm not averring fact here lol... but you know what I mean. I'm just saying that it is possible a stronger HC is playing/accentuating matters ...and while not a "faux" La Nina...it may be exaggerating any real footprint there. So we may be looking for -1.5 -related climate impacts and wondering where they are again.

There was a high wind watch in place ...? I thought I saw at a glance and, when I saw the line punching out bows up the Mohawk Trail, there were also high wind warning boxes out around mid zones on NWS Boston's URL home page - Is it possible that precedence over-shadowing might be the issue? Maybe they figured those would cover it - I dunno ... I know that flood warnings take precedence over all else, ...although I'm not sure what's the hierarchy with Tornadoes and Floods... Anyway, I did check and there were no severe watches concurrent with those wind features so - yeah... they simply did not issue, and I think it fair to question why. There was lightning and thunder, so these were thunderstorms - can't hide behind that excuse either. Thing is...sometimes you get a marginal set up ..and a line might streak a hail report and a couple of wind reports along the way, and we have this discussion - but this? This was beyond that.. it was like a Derecho mimic if not outrightly. I don't think the rad sig really reflected a D. though - it looked like a macro-bursting scenario - similar to that deal that came through eastern Mass in the later 1990s. But, we make definitions and apply them to phenomenon in the atmosphere as x-y-z ...when in reality they tend to share qualitative and quantitatively ... So if it quacked like a duck yesterday, ...we were probably were served a l'orange most likely. Definitely an interesting reanalysis ... It becomes substantive economically as some 350,000 total SNE power ports were dead in the water after that fisting - it seems it's now in the annuls and local folklore museum of unsung weather hero events...

I remember musing the numerology of 2015, SNE's ... 300% above normal snow that season ... and getting no even acknowledgement - gee wonder why lol.. ... if it snowed 0% for three consecutive years, we would be perfectly average. Now, since it has snowed substantially more that 0% since that 300% season, .. purely from a 'just deserts' perspective, we probably have to go another 13 years of 50% ( smeared out in between warm ups in sloped sun over dead Earth) where the 50% is only there because of snow squalls at 2 am .... to finally get to our 20 years average and all is good and every has been delivered just they way the wanted it... muah hahaha By the time the numbers work out ... the cadre of conspiracy to correct the population down to a select few will have perfected upon their failed SAR-CoV-2 weaponization ... So in effect, 2015 was the last winter - and we didn't even know it while it was happening.

Delta's seems to have followed the floor plan of this tropical season for failing exulted states based upon every indicator suggesting it should -... Finally, for the first time in the past 5 days of this this thing ...we seem to have emerged a definitive eye. Even when this cyclone was 140 mph ... I'm sure it had an eye but you could not see it... And I mean it was not like there was an "impression" of an eye if perhaps merely obscured by clouds ...it looked like there was no 'dent' nothing... just a CDO with weird cold nodules that seemed to bifurcate where an eye would be.. As an aside, it seems there's probably some sort of at least indirect correlation between presentation and health - heh... who knows -.. Anyway, it weakened without an IWR ...just for no reason, prior to making landfall on the Yuk. Okay ...it's not like we want to kite civility along down there. But, it moves back out over 312 F water and 0 shear... 100 mph - ... wow, look out! Something is "in the air" ( ha!) mitigating this seasons... Historic numbers held back is what is really gone. Interesting... Oh, I'm sure this going to be a category 9 sonic speed orbit influencer now that I've insolently questioned the motivations of the gods ... but, the damage of seasonal profile is already in the museum in my mind and this has been a weird year. I wonder if some of this is 'detection sensitivity' - ...but it's hard to mention that without suggesting intent was in play - I really don't mean that. But the network of tech and human observation was simply not as sophisticate in the past ... By virtue of that, some of this could be influenced by those latter advantages. I just a suggestion -

Course ...it's not really as chilly here is I thought it might be ... I thought this had more of a nicking 48 for a nano second at 2:14 pm sort of look to it but it's actually in the mid 50s .. and some d-sloping may also be contributing. Probably nicking 60 instead. Still, we have a garland or two of blue thickness draping through the region ! Woo hoo... progress.

Classic October 48 to 60 hours here... Reminds me of the 1990s Octobers. Big turn around in sensible weather over short duration. This cold air mass rolls right out of here post its nadir over the next 18 hours, and Saturday afternoon's 850 layer would support 80+ F if it were summer. But, it's October and the sloped sun will starve it of its potential some. Still, the 12z NAM has 13 to 15 C at 850 mb in a WSW-SW well mixed flow throughout SNE by 18z on that day... which is probably really 25 C in the 2-meter over the typical warm locales. Probably good for 69 at ORH and 75 as ASH/BED and Rt 9

Not that you or anyone else in particular is doing the following ... this doesn't save winter, either - ... I sense a tendency to rely on stuff as a denial enabler LOL Seriously these offsets are more like "somewhat reliable" ? A warm H5 anomaly .. will tend to promote a warm 2-meter result in the longer term when circuitously getting through all geophysical processes that connect those two metrics. It's just that for us here in New England, we tend to "tuck" and curl the flow at all scales, both synoptically and beta-meso scales. At the continental scale ...the whole of the westerlies flow coming off the Pacific tends to rise in latitude due to the oceanic laminar flow encroaching/sensing the inhibition downstream of the western topography of the continent. As the air 'piles up' the Coriolis force then curl it into a anticyclonic orientation.. which is why the rest state PNAP is always a modest ridge in the west..with a flattening out/subtle trough impression working east from the Rockies ... Since the natural R-wave/long-wave distribution of the planet also nodes a trough in the Maritimes of SE/E Canada, that means that confluence over southern and southeastern areas of Canada tends to occur given time and space... So, that's tucking the atmosphere back SW as a - for lack of better words - "potential vector" always in place. Here is an idealized example from a recent Euro run ...showing this this tucking behavior ... at synoptic scales: In this case...the 850 mb temperature is used to infer a current of cold air is being curled around by the synoptic/Coriolis forcing at large scales, ...and at this time there is also a confluence born high pressure up over the lower Maritimes... Note the warm air ends up on the N side of the anticyclonic eddy by as much as 6 to 8 C between the core of the cold channel of air and the warm 'seclusion' over NF/NS ... This is why those late May heat waves in NW New England were not experienced in the Mid Atlantic, because of this sort of large scale curl/tuck at synoptic scales, ... WHICH ... I have noticed has become a more discerned phenomenon in modeling, and in verification since this HC expansion shit and the quickening of the ambient westerlies velocity et al become prevalent over the last 10 years. But I'm digressing as usual ... I'm just saying, that we have sort of a built in "talent" for our spatial-circumstantial orientation wrt to the rest of geophysical aspect of the continent .. where these kind of aspects ( and there's a smeared spectrum of others that are cousin to this... BD's are related for example... 'Burrier jets' and ice storms always forecast to end sooner than they due because no one ever guesses this right...etc... ), and... the emerging statistical result of 2-meter temperatures tending to be cooler than the H5 modes at times. That said, I don't like personally relying on that ... If the orange and red anomalies are there... tends to quack like a duck and you end up with warm geese in the area. For me I just keep it in mind as a kind of on-going corrective maintenance, that we may have lower thickness wedging and/or soundings that "cheat" the hypsometric look due to the exaggerated curl causing the lower troposphere to gain some additional N momentum/mixing of thermal regulation from time to time that robs real heights from expanding thickness within. You know ...as an afterthought ... this fits why NASA's state of the climate publications dating back some 20 years, have 60 to 70% of the color graphic layout depictions with a cooler region painted over eastern N/A or near enough by that despite our warmer than normal ... we taint our contribution.

I dunno but was there a watch issued?

Macroburst that’s what that was

Yes sir Thing is, contrasting the GFS has a polar side low height anomaly it maintains.. which it atones for ( I think ..) by speeding up the flow everywhere more so than reality - which buries it's error in a way because it's already fast/gradient rich. That then causes it to be too W-E biased... It makes it difficult to parse our because the flow has been +AO like with steeper heights N and speedy flow overall as a persistency over recent years, and that's sort of masking the amount of bias the GFS is maintaining ... interesting -

Yeah ... but I have noticed my self a growing "gap" tendency in the dailies between the thickness and hypsometry of the atmosphere. Primer: take the Hypsometric Equation, integrate it for PV=NRT ... = thickness... The only thing that really changes is the WV ... Hypsometric height is the room the heights expand when the moisture is removed. ... This is counter-intuitive to some degree ( pun intended...) because folks have heard that WV is an efficient greenhouse gas - but what is happening is, the column of wet warm air cools off slower than the column of dry air at the same height - ...such that the wet column nets/accumulates heat when exposed to less insolation ( sun ). Anyway, I have noticed that particularly over North America above ... 37 or so N latitude (~) ... The heights are there, but the atmosphere is dodging heating up ...maybe cloud albedo ...smoke... industrial farts, who knows. But, the hypsometric heights are getting taller, but the lower troposphere isn't getting thermally charged and the increased moisture input is holding the thickness down - insidiously, too... because we have been 'above normal' ... What this does is, hides how warm 'it could have been' ...by shirking the extent of it. fascinating really -

Not sure how well known this is ... but, "Prince" was just a fantastic guitar player - if not virtuoso actually. He did a solo in the song, "While My Guitar Gently Weeps" during .... 2004's Rock 'N' Roll Hall Of Fame' induction ceremony show that was mesmerizing. Fact of the matter is, there's probably a ceiling where a lot of these talents of the craft reach ...where beyond it really isn't very relevant because that realm is perhaps beyond the detection/perception of the common human ear and experience. We are not worthy to sit with that particular panel of judges. Hendrix was done right lewd ... .and, it's risky to cross-up genres anyway, because the comparisons cannot really be resolved - it's like asking what's a prettier color: red or blue. But Chuck Berry? ...he ripped solos so hot the Devil ducked out the backdoor... he was ludicrous as a Rocka-Billy tactiction.. And there's a whole pantheon of Blues gifts from god that walked amongst us disguised as mere mortals ...who when they played, heaven wept. I dunno... there's no EVH is better than "X" or "Z" at a certain point ....it's just honoring something extraordinary for having blessed our company ...all too brief was their stay, and made the world that much more bearable for their harmony.

Wait ... there were three years bbb in the early 1950s? ...the suicide stretch my god But on point that makes me wonder about the ambient PWAT/WV accessibility in the GW models - interesting. But I don’t know if it accounts for all that because that seems like a disproportionately large response by that one metric when GE its self is decimaling its way up ... could be luck playing in... also - note the 1980’s ambrosia of couplets