Typhoon Tip

I’m nicking 8” now heavier burst the last 2 hrs delivered 3.25” 29/29 S+ and blowing S. Vis 1/4 mi or less in gusts as of 10 min ago

Will hold off on a thread pending the overnight trends - we'll be flirting with D5 tomorrow and this present ordeal in the foreground has a long way to go and needs attention. In the meantime, subtle GEFs ens mean and spread trended toward the EPS on this 18z This whole thing is whack unusual... Firstly, I have never seen a successful two stream/subsume scenario at a velocity saturation as huge as that end of the week period. Timing is critical or bi-pass and shearing results, and the easiest way to bust open that delicate harmonic is to intruduce speed to the flow and rob away from the S/W involved. The Euro compensates for this by having 175 kt 500 mb S/W mechanical wind max!!! ZOMB ... So the surrounding field can balance at 100 ... 110 kts, and there still PVA because of the wind differential just moved up the scale - but c'mon.. This isn't Jupiter.. The end result is that the entire planetary torque budget gets exhausted over Concord NH LOL.. hyperbolic, but that model started it - jerk... I suspect what we may be heading for in reality is an progressive ...albeit mechanically endowed and potent open wave. This could be ANA or NJ Model low/ quick cyclogen ... Sort of 1987 Novemeber as weak analog - The 12z Euro particulars are interesting in that the whole event is pretty lengthy ...around 18 to 22 hours ... but, only by virtue of the fact that it is ginormous in scope and scale. As a cyclone when in the formulative stages at 144 hours, it's total circumvallate, which includes primary in Ohio, and a secondary near Cape Hat. ... encompasses almost the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS pan-dimension... My gosh, and you are looking at that, and you know that can only go to one destiny: an atmospheric super massive black hole ...Sure enough, what is that 168 ... -5 SD up in N NH? But because it is so large, it's going to take that long to bore its way into eastern Canada from SE Coast... I also noticed at Pivotal .. that solution never turns to rain NW of the Canal - it's like one of those mid Canadian deals where the warm sector smells like rain but is wet snow showers... Pure N/stream .. just using the S/stream red-headed step child

this stuff is like dust bunny density - S, 1/2 mi 5.5" 27/27

Does CIPs hit foreign guidance ?

est 1/3 mi vis but mid-sized aggregates now.. 26/26. 3" Ayer

See how that opens up down there near the bottom edge/over the head of the Ches. Bay... I wonder if there's some entrainment/fold phenomenon there...

heh... I takes a special sort of scenario to take a 10-16er and positive bust that - wow

Now passing through the lull between the S NH band and the midriff once approaching from the S, and the vis DID NOT improve... interesting ' Also. ..that band over southern RI over to New Bedford down there is less like a 'band' and more like a giant mass... ominous looking... Back building and pilling in like that.. wow

495 was striped last night by DPW cruise ... but in this sting cold and with wind ... not sure what the m.o. plan of management is - It's a durational event I had a feeling we may observe some posting content that "sounds" like they know it's through Tuesday but planning for an 8 to 10 hour ordeal - umm. lol. Years of previous season's fast mover behavior ...might influence. But folks, 12z Tuesday the heights bottom out and the low is just SE of ISP or on ISP. Now ... typically, that circumstance is like Homer in hell strapped to a donut stuffing machine, only in this case ... snow, and a climate CCB band runs west down the Pike like Ray ahead Super Troopers... Even if not ...this dies a slow death. I wouldn't at all be surprised if some people unexpectedly awoke tomorrow with a 'tenting' issue around some cars. Where? I dunno - in principle though, that happens... not shocked. This is busting positive in my opinion - didn't have the balls to pull the trigger personally.. But if the range was/is 12 to 18 .. I would go with a range of 18. Not sure I buy those deep snow holes E of Alb and west of the Worc hills... Dent it? ...okay.. I don't think we have grid/power concerns with wind fracturing pow-pow not sticking ... And wind alone west of the CF probably is forgettable.

Seems per Will's rad up there ...this band along and immediately N astride rt poop has materialized over the last hour. We were 'fuzzy' at 1.5 mi vis for a couple hours and then this materialized ahead of the band we've been tracking which is still S of here. There's even a relative lull between - interesting

Definitely the heaviest snow I've witnessed this season at this location in Ayer, right now - Vis reduced to 1/4 ~ 1.5" 26/26

really - wow I'm 1/4 mi vis here in Ayer ... maybe 1/3 but it's definitely < 1/2 mi and have been going on an hr

Someone in that Jersey band is getting over 40" ... they were in the 15"+ VIP lounge as of noon and that was prior to that weird pivot-point thunderstorm calibre stationary sequencing going on radar. That reminds me of 1997 Dec 23 rad rates down there, and when that '97 thing passed through here... we got 14" in 3 hours... I can't imagine what that will do down there if that persist through the evening - got to figure that unless we hit something truly historic, that's gonna wanes some how some way. So, I am 26/26 and 1/2 mi vis here in Ayer. 1" so far... This 'fuzzy' area out ahead of that strong-ish band presently rotating N has been snowing harder than rad... It makes me wonder if the higher ratio snow is helping there... And I figure when that band(s) pivot on through we'll stack better for a couple hours in each. getting nasty out there folks -

Looking at the GEFs trend now ... ... we're gonna need another thread for this -

I mean as is ... - also, quite necessary that we fail to keep Kevin's pendulum any hope of equitably in check lol but, I don't think that type of thing will A happen ... but B, if it does? that proooobably has to squeeze a triple point ... The initial cold does have some modest +PP up N helping so I bet that gets feedback on BL resistance just enough.. But man, that may be the nearing the upper envelope of what the Terran atmosphere can physically force. Those are 150+ kt circumvallate winds around the SPV subsuming trough ... frankly, I have never heard of anything like that succeed - I haven't. Subsume physics are delicate wave harmonics - that's like a poor schmuck choral conductor attempting to reign an angry throng of trumpeting pachyderms into song

up here N. Mass along Rt 2 ... vis down to 1.5 mi in 20:1ers so starved of liq phase state they occasionally fall skyward ..rising. already blowing snow off the roof eves, too - even though it's like .25" of fractured dust down 26/22

I'm wondering if the fact that essentially the southern half of NJ is getting boned lower than all that various snow product/guidance and other more standard QPF layouts had going in, is perhaps a trend teller ... I'm staring like good dweeb would at Dupage's hi res vis loop ( https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ) and it occurs to me that the cloud production and fanning out motion that extends just S of LI's length ( which is the axis of 850/700 mb elevated frontal slop ), is probably not going to situate S again ...and those regions are thus screwed - Hmm. Just wonder if it's trending everything NE

I like the "why" part of that though ... as in ... too many doubters that do so defensively because they don't want to admit to a circumstance that gets their hopes up lol ' - j/k

It's real ... I have fairy aggies flitting in the cryo breeze up here in Ayer and looking at that radar ...wouldn't have thunk it's making it down.

Every time I glance across that abbreviation ... I wonder what in the Hades do parades and social-justice/equality issues have to do with the weather

Or 'cracking' up ... not sure which. Looking at that...it appears to be an usually long IB/WAA event over the elevated frontal interface, but..the models seem to hint at abandoning that ascent mechanic - or attenuating it ..such that we don't quite get the same proficiency that we see in those rad animations there, up here... But, I wonder if that's too cutesy with the handling and not real? This thing's a pain in the ass

I'm sorry ... "froude number" ?

Not a bad comedic take there - no. Fits ...heh. But I don't think we can - I think we gotta now-cast this beyotch. These spins are more like a chaos lows inside of a bag of general processes that are too discrete even for the higher resolution models to really nail down - it's like they ( NAM .. RGEM ..HDRP... gonorrhea ..whatever) are too discrete for their own good, because they are not discrete enough - They also have different convective sequencing/physics built into their models than the Global scales - or at least used to ... I also wonder ...as this whole thing wobbles through the heights do fall ... that should in theory destablize the column. So then they're handling this along when suddenly, they see their own tale! They start chasing it - ... 'oh, why shit - better spin up a 150 naut mi wide EOF1 tornado then' Kidding of course, but because their own generate instability, subsequently triggers a convective responses -

It is hard to know what is real and what isn't ... computer enhanced hallucinations ( rip from War Games ) within that inner chamber of this thing's busted ravioli low pressure. I mused an hour ago that it was almost as though the models can't see completely inside that wobbling mess of frenzied meso whirls that are tusseling and arguing for supremacy ... Taking this symoblic representation even further - it's like the governance is weak and irresponsible and won't delegate authority - a metaphor for ultimately this total trough evolution doesn't 'quite' have the mechanical power to focus matters into a singular cohesive entity. In any case... once in a while the models get a better glimpse and then we see it crack off an over-achiever that tries to take the reign and anchor the trough ..but they're just as likely noise results within the numerical instability of this whole thing's evolution. Thing is ... I love ( really hate in present context - ) when we say, " I'm not buying," in front of x-y-z ... Not an issue with the person, it's a problem with the vernacular - because ... these models do not put out solutions that are physically "im"possible ... That would be bad - what the f would we ever be using if that's the case. The rest is what we call the rarer coup de etat winner model - sometimes I just want it to be an ICONic NAM-eramma ding dong model just to chap the asses of modeling conceit. lol

Sure did ... looks like .4 (avg) added back ... just off the top of my head. I never took that seriously though with that NAM .. it's like a dealing with a intelligent, 16 year-old daughter, unfortunately equally afflicted(ing ...as in people around her) with emotionally/insecurity loose canon neurosis with that thing - But the grid (FOUS) was back to 1.83" from storm's main bulk, ... afterward, that 24 hours of glutting richest sets in... That stuff to me - btw - has the potential to come down a bit more appealing than the radar, but I almost want the wind to relax some for that too ..hm. The last event had that look to it, too, as you may recall... but it didn't pan out so well. It looked to me like the lower soundng dried out too much in those intervening periods between the main stuff and the arrival of the beefier arctic desert. I don't know if I see a drying source this time. We'll see... General reader: Logan also has a sneaky warm low level to 35F ... but not until the ballast of said heaviest is in the books; has the impression that the CF probably wobbled NW for a couple hours around the end of bulk goodies. Could see it being 27 F at BED at that tie... Otherwise 32F while ~ 10” falls in 6 hrs on the grid. There occurs ~ 5” in the 6 hrs prior to that 10 ... and depending how much low level mixing in that end pesky interval determines how much of it us 3 or 4”, waffle batter or just cat paws for a brief stint ... Winds are never greater than 40 deg angled ... NE 38 kt sustained at maximum!!! We got us a bona fide mo’fuggass Nor'easta bitches But that’s all out at Logan .. in the stupid harbor. With those grid numbers, the synoptic realism is probably pure snow out toward Cambridge ... and Jer' dawg... and beyond. I just have trouble with 1030+ mb height draped climo -ideal and all those closing centers SE of NYC -PVD line ... That's a compact CF period -