Typhoon Tip

heh...wouldn't shock me if ETA bursts to 185 mph with gusts to 220 ... hPa of 888 mb ... stalled E of Honduras

I keep waiting for another shoe to fall but it just doesn’t do it. The 850mb temps and overriding ridge get more impressive every run. I mean the GGEM had temperatures approaching 16 Celsius at 850! Is that an 850 record ..or maybe that was the Euro I don’t know one of those two

Does anyone remember the 2nd green up? 2011

That ridge setting up week’s end is astounding ... It’s like pressing the ceiling of geophysics Wed could see a rare diurnal range if the region should decouple leading ..If early afternoon. intense warm frontal passage in dry adiabatic profiling/ active return flow gradient mixing you could approach 50 F spread 5am to 4pm

You know .. actual scale/degree of extremes, notwithstanding, isn't this warm up actually kinda sorta like 'normal' ? It's probably a verboten to use this terminology given recent 'ethotic' changes ... but "Indian Summer" has very pronounced and almost legit anticipated historical precedence - we just have been in a climate mix--up for so long we've lost sight of that kind of normal procession of events. The definition of Indian Summer even has an entry in the AMS glossary: " Indian summer A period, in mid- or late autumn, of abnormally warm weather, generally clear skies, sunny but hazy days, and cool nights. In New England, at least one killing frost and preferably a substantial period of normally cool weather must precede this warm spell in order for it to be considered a true "Indian summer. " Granted ... having Logan break it's October snow record ... perhaps exceeds the 'normal cool weather' aspect that's tucked into that definition, but negating the extremeness of it, it's really a fitting warm-up... Also - ... the warm up extreme may match the (SD of this cold snap + the climate signal) ... I frankly don't have a problem seeing it be 77 F at the apex of this thing ...whether there's arithmetic justice or not. The Autumn of 1999 and 2006 ...both had a week with 60s and at least one 73-75F at BED Hanscom into the first week(s) of December ... Having said that, we've had trouble getting the verified ridges east of 110 W over the continent to actually swell to the extent of mid/extended range guidance since last March...not sure this ridge has to succeed necessarily... Waiting for the other shoe to fall on some confluence impulse to send weightier undercutting PP

Here’s the GEFs ensemble mean ... showing it’s uncanny support

wow was that a warm Euro run - ...I mean, as a singular complexion not considering much else, that's an impressive warm signal for that calendar range - gee, about equal and opposite SD as just what occurred ?

Looks like this Invest is ahead of the popular global model's development curve ... Not sure what the tropical specific ensembles look like but TPC has 'near 100%' and have all but already declared it. Thing is, it's got 'that look' of having no interest in holding back - it's curling over pretty coherently at multiple levels, and given to low shear and high OHC ...it's seems it's a candidate for exceeding intensity expectations - we'll see on that. Looks a bit like a Wilma analog for slowing as it near Honduras ...possible meandering over the hottest waters in the solar system outside of deep penetration Jupiter, then being pulled out..

I don't think it's going to last ... not that you asked ( I realize you're just leveling the comment - ) But, I do still believe that warm pattern R-wave folds over ... possibly dramatically... mid month. I wonder about corrective storminess closer to the 20th too - but it's exotically far out there..admittedly. The problems I have with sustaining warmth are: N/stream expressive hemisphere makes any sustained subtropical ridging both plausible, but also susceptible along the N rims for transitory pattern behavior. If we add to that the a progressive/velocity surplus hemisphere, that lends to non-fixate R-wave constructs. I just don't see us situating a ridge and have it be unperturbed to "sustain" anything for that matter. Being realistic: this snow wasn't gonna last - you/we know that...of course. But, we need to 'unjazz' from yesterday and think of this for what it is... But what is it: that's an interesting question... Comparing this to the 300 year climate observation, this is rare... Comparing this to the local climate spanning 20 years, I argue it is not rare - no way... We've had half ... ( at least ) of all Octobers featuring either synoptic snow, or... patterns certainly favorable of supporting synoptic snow - but merely happened to dodge the timing in this latter essence... But less than even synoptic ... these packing pellet bouncer showers way waay more frequently than the previous paradigm before the turn of the Century. And, it has also coincide with the two things that I find increasingly more difficult to believe is just random chance: The hockey-stick climate acceleration; The velocity surplus and hemispheric wind flux anomalies sendong commercial airline traffic on sonic speed trajectories across the N Pac and Atl Basins... ( I took the liberty adding this statement but you get my meaning...) Nah, the former lends to the latter ...due to HC expanding N and "compressing" the hypsometry of the hemisphere in the means... and this then causes the flow to 'pile up' so to speak and 'fold over' western Canada at transition seasons. Octobers and Aprils are more winter at times the January now... "at times" - not all the times...

Random shit ... I was musing this morning about 1995 ... That was a phenomenal entrance into winter that year, the likes of which I have not experienced since. There have been fast starts since... but none enduring. 1995 was like a winter wall creeping S - once your region succeeded that invisible boundary ... you didn't go back. Latitude Rt 2, .. ~ 9th of November.. We did not see bare ground until late January. I wonder if this year will compete ... I won't even score this year badly if we do in fact see a 70 late next week, particularly if by the 10th we are seeing -EPO ( quasi therein) and +PNAP structured flow, and subsequent rolling into another deeper winter expression again - . Last night ... as I was driving around town after dark ( in the late afternoon at this time of year ...), the streets were steaming. Some enough that the steam was pooling into ground fog under the clearing sky, calm wind decoupling that was already underway. The region was swept over by a jolt cooling event - yesterday's system was a distant weaker example of a Woolly Mammoth legendary frozen-instantly, while still working cud in craw. As the theory has it ... from some kind of sudden cold climatic shock that zapped at hemispheric scales across Siberia and N Canada.. Not sure if that is true, but..., that observation of steaming really is an homage to us having just witnessed something pretty rare, nonetheless. It's okay to steam streets - but not when it is because of 4-6" of snow prior to Halloween - This morning there is a combination of cold air - related still leaf fall taking place along with dislodging clumps of snow that sparkle in the steeply sloped morning sun... I'm not sure I have ever seen that concurrent effect before. Usually it's leaf, then snow... several weeks later.

Man if that all just got a little bit deeper quicker and verified we’d have one of those 4 to 6 hour dim orbing of the street lamps … And then 24 hours later we get poofed by a Windex series of squalls… And then it’s 70° next Friday heh .. negotiable

You gotta be f’ing kidding me

Very strange mechanical transfer… What we’re looking at there is a Miller B ... just doing it at a very strange orientation; the primary’s up in West/Northwest Ontario as opposed to PA/NY climo ...and the secondary develops on the Del M ...strange mechanical transfer that really bombs going by Boston That snow you’re seeing there is a CCBA comma with frontogen

I actually think that trough early next week being far more mechanically/really part of the whole hemispheric gearing ...that’s the actual Archibald amplitude/signal because it’s multi mass field related .. And we see by weeks end at least transiently there’s an entire mode change in the pattern. I think there’s a pretty significant cold reload going on out there though the deeper range still as earlier talked about Anyway there’s a limit to how deep that’s going to be ...agree with everybody that there’s probably gonna be some hook back there in the maine mountains and definitely upslope but I would also watch that secondary jet street coming down the NW flow early Tuesday that sucker may pulse some nasty Windex thru the area pretty potent

12z Euro is a complete whiff ...

Consistent with Will's radar advice ... it's actually snowing pretty good here in this trailing deform band ... looks like 1/2 to 2/3rds MI vis with uniform small-mid sized aggies... And < 0 C ! ...I'm f'n amazed by that on Oct 30

Yeah... I was actually visualizing this as caking the N facing trees and power poles with a white frosting, and having grass blades still sticking through ... while glops fall off of side-mirrors from car doors ...maybe a slush rut or two upon streets mainly just wet... But this ? It's an overproduction/cold success over what I was anticipating to be completely honest. I mean, remove the vestigial Oak and late Silver Maple leafs and that setting out there is really indistinguishable from a clock-puncher January ordeal ... wtf chuck - 31; -S; 3.25"

I'm astounded frankly... This exceeds 2011 in the 2-meter T SD just existentially - but by all means ... if anyone wants to compare discretely - The wind blows here ..I have cob-webbing prior to Halloween !! ?? There was never blowing snow in 2011 at my place here in Ayer - tho granted, that event exceeds this one in accumulation by about 2.5 X's so far... I ended up 9.5" back then and a slew of down tree limbs and powerlines on top.. That snow was deposed in 33 -ish tacking .. This is different - But uh ...yeah, it is specifically the scale/degree of cold and that we are fracturing snow into eave curling blow off ... that is just absolutely the first time I have ever seen that observation in my life - no exaggeration, before Novie 1 WOW

I still suspect the spike in the AO is over done in the GEFs derivatives ... I could visualize that rounding the arc off and then descending down - and we note the remarkably concerted agreement toward the 2nd week of November. The -AO is formulaic ... and jives longer term statistically against an underpinning MJO signal: NOTE, the EPS mean is decent agreement ... I have not seen the most recent Euro values...but there is at least some - albeit weak .. - corroboration coming from the GFS side... The only problem is, will any ensuing MJO signal garner strength enough to transmit its signal into the westerlies.. When the MJO matures to coherency on the left side of the above diagram, this promotes mid latitude cyclogenesis ... That enhances the wind fluxing from the E at ~60 N, and that's an indirect .. if not driver, in causing the AO to descend in the calculation/EOFs ... Whether there is actually concomitant blocking noted at higher latitudes or not, the enhancing cyclogenesis at mid latitudes --> driving the lower Ferrel latitude easterly jets does show up in the EOF calculations as a downward AO modulation. So in short, it is not clear if high latitude blocking is apparent using these teleconnector/techniques, or, ...is it a favorably MJO giving rise to some increase cyclogenic parameterization/modeling out there in the distance that is "pulling" the AO down by virtue of enhancing easterly flow? The answer - what difference does it make... It's still a cold signal for 45 N ... and, seeing as we are in a era where we fold over the western continental hypsometric response to what is increasingly evidenced as a CC-related, ambient Pacific jet velocities raging in perpetuity ..., that tells me that after next week's rebound, we probably do something like now ..again, and it may be more potent on the next sequence. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we match the current SD in the other direction for a couple days over the apex of this warm up, too

Well ...this certainly vindicates the effort in early recognition/anticipation .. I mean, I argue that just being proximal to a rationally conceptual pattern for discussion, was all along ... , justification, but seeing this out of doors really does help underscore/substantiate - it seems to make it that much more worth it.

Derailed thread alert ... but ..what is your diet and age ? Not to be too personal, but I have personal experience with that condition and have studied/learned ...and modulated my lifestyle around avoiding it, successfully.. ..and pretty much have eliminated it altogether. I may sometimes get something suspicious..but it never lasts longer than a day ...day and half, and is nothing compared to when it hit and I'd be hobbled for 4 or 5 days, and is forgettable. I can tell you ... no smoking no alcohol 50% of daily caloric intake has to be from vegetable/organic sourcing therein... Red meat once per week, lean and organic - and start liking salmon/fish ... I ride 25 mile rides, or run 6 mile runs....every day. ..in fact, those on this board that no me as an ass-end of a dead rhino to look at probably would be a-taken back by how thin I am these days. My total cholesterol is way down ... and I haven't had any gout worthy of even mentioning in 3 years now, when prior to making these lifestyle changes...I was once every two or three weeks dealing with something... elbow, knee or foot... even thumb joints. Also, if you engage in an excessive work out regimen from a sedentary initial position, the sudden drop in weight can also trigger a gout response. You have to start easing off the bad calories first for a couple of weeks... No soda ...ad that to the list above big time! In fact, avoid high-fructose corn syrup like the plague ma-man. ... anyway, drop 10 then ease into work outs... The sudden weigh loss is your body liberating huge quantities of uric acid and other bio-toxins into your blood, and often...faster than renal function can adapt - uric numbers go up... boom - exercise induced arthritic attack. Once you lose...20 or 30 lbs and your body more fully adapts to working out regularly...you can even throw in a beer here and there, or a pizza ... live a little...and you'll be fine. But, that is sub-moderation and treats. Just sayn'

Yeah... I love supposition/'what-if' plausibilities.. Hey, it's the zygote of science, to speculate - otherwise...what's the point of livin' ha. But, I like to think hard and long and logically, to be at least thoughtful about doing so - not just throwing shit against the wall cause it sounds 'cool' - There is a precedence in weather phenomenon for constructive vs destructive wave interference - and this smacks as having bean pulling model guidance a bit ...

Maybe hypothesis ... but, it just seems there's some wave-space interference in the interim modeling/time cycles over the last couple days, possibly 'masking' the 2nd wave's potential - I mean it may in fact be true that it would have, in total, been even more without Zeta's interference - but without a physical reanalysis study it's hard to be certain.

hmm... the summits'll lighten up when it's 45 F rain beneath whenever... I'd feel better about this whole thing if there was cold air like ...anywhere to be found. Lol Talk about hiding in the virtual realm - everyone's all giddy and swept away in an event that presently can't happen - So I guess we trust in the models - heh. It'll be interesting to monitor if/when there is a kind of cold pulse that rattles through the area say ..9pm to 1am N to S... I wonder if we grind down .2 deg F per hour, then out of nowhere .. a subtle acceleration N sheds 6, ... 2... 2... across two hours to 37 and 'chutes.

The deep field vision's a white Thanks Giggedy - but...prior to that, we endulate ... could be fantastically so but we'll see on magnitude. The concerted membership of the GEFs out through the early 3rd week of November is striking in agreement. This also 'appears' to situate with an emerging MJO and a recurving series of modeled West Pac TCs - now that the latter is climatologically 'turning on' as a signal/induction - The west Pac is probably going to slip negative toward the 2nd week of November...and it's an emerging signal...so we may see negative flux in the EPO ensue 3-5 days later heading between the 15th and 20th... These things sometimes take a bit longer to set up, too - so subject to change. Before that, we bask in warmth - which has been on the charts for some time. I was wrong to think it would correct NW ( continental trajectory...), or at least would think I was wrong at this point...given to the multi-modal/multi-model sourcing indicating this side of the hemisphere isn't just +AO ...the PNAP is lapsing west so the westerlies are pulling out of the east ... Code for big ridge ...seeing the operational runs building that in agreement .. heh, bet goes down on a positive temperature departures for 3 to 5 days somewhere after 3rd or 4th - 12th or so.. Then think we may see 'real' winter arrive Early guess ...