Typhoon Tip

Hey ...I wasn't far off - not bad LOL

I understand the interest ...but, Siberia just spent what ... 7 years > normal 90% of the time. This may not even typify their whole winter but just a several week stint within - I don't know though. Not only is the ballast of GW being registered in the nocturnal temperature behaviors ... but, the models aver that the frequency of disruptive events should increase along the with the change. I think running along at some acclimated 7 year above normal stretch, then having that rudely offset by a Medusa cold wave fits that.

What was the WINDEX check list that was floating around out there in the earlier web days... Man, I regret not saving that. I google it now and it's hard to find. The only thing I remember about it was the vertical temperature/lapsing and the LIs ... You're talking about tornado stuff there - lol... Kidding, but my memory of that check list from the mid 1990s was: R1 RH > 50% LI jumps up +9 And a T1 to T3 lapse rate of > -9 but those were FOUS numbers. No one uses those grids anymore so... that may also be why the old checklist as I recall is harder to find nowadays. Which incidentally the FOUS does show these criteria met ( abv )

ha ha... over that? man, just wonder - could aspects ever become so dire, that an obs thread gets fired up over the prospect of a cumulus cloud.

You know ( or perhaps more apropos, 'don't wanna know' ), the climate reports, from observation to science/prediction and back ... all have been saying that the ballast of the global warming signal has been captured in fact by the nocturnal numbers. Last summer... now... I mean, this is all consistent with that, whether it is coincidental or not. It's probably some of both. I mean, GW happens in decimals... It took a century to go up 2 C or whatever it is... point being, we got to be +10 on the lows if we're +4 on highs or whatever in order to sustain a +7 at ORH ...that's not GW ... obviously .. ( man I'm bored today LOL ) .. else we be in trouble

Perception is politics ... When 90% of civility sleeps when it is dark, and the ballast of the above normalness of it has been .... while it is dark, they are not readily perceiving the warmth. To say the least, it's truly is insidious ...because 34 F for a low ...no one considers that temperature comfortable regardless - I mean, this could not be a better elegantly calculated method for smashing records and hiding intents and purposes... hahaha. Seriously though ...the randomality of all has this going on while no one is looking - .. It's like last summer in some respects. I think we put up some pretty warm JJA numbers but it never felt particularly hot outside. I remember more memorable heat waves over the decades... Last year seems sort of tepid to very warm at times, before receding back - good convection though. I know it wasn't ubiquitously experienced but I clocked 8 severe warned events here in Ayer, and half verified with limbs and hail....wind. We had some really good lightning too, despite the U.S. lightning data saying the whole country was way down. interesting.

I had heated arguments about the NAO ...jesus, 12 years ago? holy hell - .. but those arguments were because posters would implicated -NAO = snow... wrong. Winter storm enthusiasts don't want a statically depressed NAO index... particularly one that is west based. That is actually true with any and all indexes though, not just the NAO. When the PNA or the EPO or the NAO ... etc, are unchanging, that means that they are in a state of equilibrium with respect to the other indexes, which represent conjoined regions that are influential back and forth ... mass exchange. Equilibrium = fair weather. That is simplest way to conceptualize the complexity of Index modulation there is. If the NAO...or PNA...or WPO...AO...etc., are changing, that means that the equilibrium is off... the 'stalemate' is broken - wars have begun that way ... And in this case, the war is a storm. Storms are simply what happens when the atmosphere is trying to get back to a state of equilibrium. Having said that ... the NAO is not our problem. Nope... This shit was going on last week when the NAO was not representing much of a quantifiable block up there. We have one now... And it arrived without a correction event - ... which for the indexes et al, we are on the western side of the NAO domain, pretty much on the boundary of where it terminates into the eastern end of the PNA really .. Since the prevailing weather ...wind, pattern, S/W ...L/W ...all of it, is west to east, an index change in the NAO can conceivably be observed without, because the forcing is heading east more readily. It's probably why Heather Archembaults statistical representation of these concepts also concluded that the correlation was much stronger with the PNA than it was in the NAO, which demo little skill.

Heh...one should not swing their emotional pendulum with this run.. Not sure how anyone can acknowledge in one hand that determinism ( predictability ..) is pretty much non existent beyond D 4 ... then, turn around on the next cycle and frustrate over a Del Marva track... that is beyond D 4. It's meaningless - futility of doing so all but absolute.

You know... that's a snow atmosphere too - I mean, you can see that with dynamics and a favorable track "UNDER" ( for f sake! ) our latitude, that's enough to get a blue cash-in or two. It really is just like a "boring monster" It's not just us -...I know I'm abusive in making fun of us in here. But, I was in line at a typical grocery store cashiered and bag-girled by the usual sub-Millennials ... and I happen to hear one say to the other, "I wish it would at least snow again if it has to be winter... " It's been on the news too. At the gym, the overhead televisions muted, the weather person ( FOX, NESN ...Harv or that women on staff there that's so transcendedly hot you're just like pissed off! ), they're all putting up graphics comparing snow this season to other years and trying to put it in perspective. It's really them doing it for themselves - trust me. I've worked intern for Harv and Mich Michaels back in the day, and met Mark "Frozen-then-thawed" They hate this. Trust me...they are miserable having to report the same punch-in 37-41 partly cloudy banality like a not so funny version of a movie starring Murray. I guess it could be worse. You could be an on-camera Met in the Pheonix market -

Holy shit are you kidding ... +6+ in ORH ... ? ho man... Ray's right. This is a helluva way to collect any gratification for witnessing interesting phenomenon when it feels shitty outside yet it's that "warm" - Yeah, Neptune is an inferno compared to Pluto - why choke my chicken! how riveting ...that's deliciously boring.haha making me laugh

Ah -hahahahahahahaha! Yeah ...sometimes when in lost fortunes are replaced by frustration in such elegant proportion ... it becomes difficult not to consider the super-agency theory - lol. The atmosphere does this, you know? It's like when it's got it in for a region it just doesn't relent - it hammers ...and when the region is dead and defeated, THEN, its' starts hammering ... Nature is cruel ... like an Orca (this winter) flipping a seal pup ... ah, we'd be the seal pup in that metaphor Like 2015 February - it's like Will said ( I think it was ...), we were merely mid way in the month having already shattered every 30 day snow record there is between here and Utqiagvik Alaska ... Yet, we were looking at 4th period blizzard watch, and a D8 high probability for successful verification just beyond.. It goes in both directions. The Earth makes sure ... And of course, we don't notice it when 80 or 90 some-odd % of the ballast times anomalies actually dole out in equaller proportions. In this case...we are being hammered by negatives .. that's just it. In philosophy that's basically it, the unrelenting form of plight. Question is, does it relent in time ? Back in 1956 ('57?), there was a March that racked up some 60+ inches from N. Philly to PWM after a pretty sandy serious of winter months prior. Seems harder to do that as this new climate paradigm is doing whack-a-doo things with Springs ( separate discussion vector ..lol - ) in general. But, the point is... it's academic to say, it's January f'um 19 .... You know, while on the subject, it occurs to me that all we need is +PNAP even just a little... whole aspect changes. Obviously we are in 'put up or shut up' scorched attitudes now, but we really are still in a subsume regime...Whenever we see blocking in the 60th N latitudes pearled, that is inherently slowing that W --> E coordinate relative to the 40 N. That is an "implied" cyclonic motion...and that's the initial state to get SPV's to crash in and fuse with S /stream features. We are not seeing that because the flow / PNA et al is just not allowing ANY western heights...so there's nothing to trigger those interactions - bypass prevail. But you know...? That's playing with matches there...

And whomever nails the 'whence' that occurs gets the parade and the ladies -

Well gee, Ray ... I'm impressed - Yeah, okay - if you wanna play the general appreciator of weather-related anomalies card, absolutely. We do not, under those auspices, disagree at all. Folks should know me - if a comet is whizzing by, that takes precedence. It's just that in here, this is not an appreciation for weather-related anomalies ... It's a psycho-tropic stimulus addiction ...one that is rooted in the sentiment of snow. That's the audience I was directing the previous post too - I'm being a little sardonic there but seriously, I agree that 2011-2012 has its own quirky charm and fascination when looking at the nature of this engagement with equal AVR. No disagreement from me.

Ha ! ... yeah but no ... can't agree. It's subjective so tfwiw - but 2011-2012 truly was absentia - ... this winter has SSWs and -NAO/-AOs ...etc, at least. That one, not only last the whole way, it never had any hope ... ....the whole way

Lol - In a practical real setting ? No much ... If one is not sufficiently protected in an air mass of that gelid amber, they are over the death threshold - like... the body has frozen solid, and the soul's essence long receded back into quantum information paradox that argues nothing is lost and destroyed in the real Natural universe ...and then the wind blows ? Doesn't matter - haha...

Oh ...it'll resume - This is how Gaia turns up the oven to the "Clean" setting on humanity. By obfuscating the direction of climate change with offset bullshit like this to instill doubt, people relax, and then she cooks us to our demise - eradication succeeds. Think 'toads in a pan of water slowly raised to boil,' in spite of all our conceits - nice. That Siberian cold is probably being manufactured out of the same ailing global circulation's insidious expressions of climate imperiled ...the same one that brought 300" of snow to Japan in 5 minutes last month ( sarcasm but whatever that was...) It's plausible if not probable that the entire hemisphere and the arrival of these circumstances et al are caused by a competing total systemic forces - GW concurrent when there's an attempt to "negatize the polar index" contributions to the total circulation. In fact, the speedy flow for a decade and counting is related; it's like this year is that, on steroids now that blocking is intruding into the affairs. It's a bizarre hemisphere to see blocking nodes set over top of 6 to 9 contoured height-lined westerly jet streams. That latter is not conducive to the former - I just think we are dealing with uniqueness that has never happened. And there may be times in the 300 years of awareness/ climo reconstruction efforts that bear some resemblance, but not the same in the absolute sense ...and it's in this latter sense that we are suffering for what manifests out of it. So some out-of-box philosophy there ..sure... But, in more practical terms, that Siberian depth is really just another expression of the proven right, "extremes" that the climate modeling has already been proven correct about.

Tempering the elation with a dose of objectivity ... Keep in mind, there is a propensity going back months ... to consummately correct all deep ranged middel to extended time frame features, downward in amplitude as those come into any sort of consensus - interestingly, right around the time ranges when confidence for actually being real, emerges ..roughly 120 hrs give or take a few cycles. Jan 26 just did this ...or is doing so.. Jan 29 most likely will as well. We've been through three pretty distinctly different pattern flavors: whatever drove Dec 17; that weird interlude that was really the absence of a pattern being a pattern in itself; now ( weird blocking + under ripped by a velocity surplus hemisphere + a PNA that is negative)/ 3 = N/S . So what that implies is that regardless of these patterns, the models still do this larger than life --> no ...the celebrity's human like the rest of us reality dosing along their management of features. And it is a behavior owned by all guidance ...UKMET to Euro ...GGEM and GFS ... tea-leafs. Seems to want to argue that it's just in the state-of-the-art of the technological ambit. I remember years where this was not so coherently annoying though ...so it's interesting. I am not sure why. Fun metaphor: The moon rising over the horizon. Optically, the image distorts by the atmosphere into looking quite foreboding .. as though it were actually going to crash into the Earth in a celestial doomsday event ... It's almost like the models see things hugely as they are coming over the distant horizon ranges ... In any case, this pattern does not lend to skill and it never has...as was hammered last week. That is still the case. So, putting that facet together with the aforementioned correction tendency, ...ugh - good luck.

I wonder if we’ll put some back to back blw normal days together here

That is the Miami Rule on steroids!!! wow... It can effect S/W morphology and cyclogen effectiveness in a different ways, but complete and utter vanquish absorption is rare actually. And, the model does it twice! First with the one that is lingering over S. Cal at 72 hours - takes that one over the Arklotex as a water-color vesper, then there's nothing identifiable of it 1100 km later over Tennessee. Then, the would-be system we've been denying we're tracking for the 26th it does the same thing. Neither feature even exists past the TV... How about the size of the polar high though?? my goodness... the entire domain of ORD-ATL-DCA is one big damming signal - Too many oddities in a single run ...willing to bet as others are joking - this is different in another cycle.

It's funny ... we were joking the other day about dubbing this winter the great whack-a-mole winter - All these "plausible" emergent storms modeled out there, and just when you bring your hammer down on one as though yeah...it vanishes before you can strike it as likely - Folks in here don't care about technology and modeling ... and best deterministic philosophy ...etc..etc... That stuff is far too lucid and objectively responsible ... No, this is about a given model runs ability to gas-light their endorphin/joy circuitry. - failing that is like NARCAN interrupting a good high. You know...I was at summer deck party a few years ago and a off-duty cop was there. Southern NH somewhere...I think Manchester precinct. But he was saying that they've shown up on a scene before where some ODer was slumped and unresponsive, having to administer that shit to the glowing eyed waste-oid mere moments away from their last heart beat, and it would work... Only the recipient would get pissed off for having their high ruined - We just spent the better part of mid day explaining matters. This Euro shouldn't really weight much ... But it's a NARCAN run ...

yeah ...I'm in Will's camp ...I don't see that there's any forcing on the AO registering at present. It's still "invisible" to the models et al until that tropopause /// coupling. If it does, and the -AO patterning favors Eurasian/Siberian conveyors ... fine - but utterly a blind dice roll for about a week to 10 days ... maybe 2 weeks.

This should be a required banner at the top of all log -ins for the next two weeks, just like the "no politics" reminder -

Any Meteorologist that called for an epic January based upon an SSW that didn't materialize until the first week of January ... does/did not understand thetotal model of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming gestation - TIME LAG! 20 days ( as illustrated in the annotation farther below ) For the general user/reader of this weather-related hobby/social media: You could do yourself a favor if you understanding that lag. If you had back in December, might have known better and been protected from the beguiling turns excitement-intending phrases by Twits We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet Will and I mused about this a month ago ...and yup, that's been the best prediction leveled this winter thus far. We literally discussed in no uncertain terms how the -AO (erstwhile) would be mistaken and falsely connected to the advent of the SSW. Here we are ...... NAILED it... lol,. Heh, wasn't exactly a tricky foresight, no. Having displayed this and explain that ... Yeah, it's even possible that a -AO won't pay cold and snowy dividends, either. This one didn't - why should any future -AO be required to. So, part of the problem with the Twit toxicology of the Sociological dilemma is that no way does a Twit stupified dumb down idiocracy have enough space to elucidate a complex field of study and environmental problem solving required to understand the SSW... So, no Met should even push any vision of what one should mean to weather patterns and storm this or cold that - ... Maybe advertise one as imminent ? sure - but then direct the reader to a real study. Irresponsible informatica is going to doom Humanity.

Yes, and while keeping in mind that in a hockey-sticking CC world ( for those who embrace reality ) it is logical to consider the coin as steadily more weighted on one side. I realize your just conveying a statistical concept there ... but, applying this to the real world now requires a deeper look. Reiterating a talking point from autumn ... our 'flop directions' seem to less and less be favoring frozen verification types. Best to describe 'flop direction' via a description. Suppose one is looking at a middle -range modeled cyclone with +1 C swathed amid the NW quadrant of it's QPF layout: In 1995, that's a blue snow; in 2021, that's cat paws. And analyzing the two events may not demonstratively reveal very many differences - its part of the insidiously slow nature in which CC expresses. I do critique that idea, however ... advances in modeling over the last 25 years could certainly atone for that. Yet, climate migration is real - that paragon is sensitive to decimal-worth of change, because of the quantum nature of molecular phase-change physics. Because we are in fact in a polar migration wrt the climate banding around the hemisphere, that brings these disparate explanations into competition. It's subtle... It's insidious, but CC could very well be claiming these events. We are also event wealthy in recent decades. So, we are getting more snow in the aggregate purely by virtue of having more opportunities. That obfuscates and buries truths ... So the governing point of this example is that ...maybe just maybe stringing 3 or 4 years of "bad" winters while, say, every half decade we get a Feb 2015 ... is more common now. ... All of which is also buried in 'virtual climate' provided by the cinema age of weather modeling and the Internet engagement aspect - there's that too.

We'll broach that question when there's great blocking -