Typhoon Tip

I just think the cyclostrophic disk et al might get lifted over the top of the stabler oceanic boundary layer residing over the relatively colder shelf waters; then it becomes a wildcard weather mixes back down over land - assuming it gets that far nw and over ORH etc Whatever it’s gonna be very velocity Sheard so I think tornadoes could be enhanced in a situation like this this

Seems like at least some shift should be considered yeah. Interesting. I keep coming back to Sandy and how those models had to shift left; the situation similarly although it was much more demonstrative back then. What started out turning left in Maine in the models ended up turning left into New Jersey… Now this time the U/A is not that strong and the block is also a weaker. These situations are so anomalous I don’t think models are really going to handle it very well.

They’re gonna enter PR mode soon and that’s when the flop is always high

It looks the same to me. I mean they may give it the nod next advisory but it looks like the shears still limiting matters.

Right 60+ hours it’s moving into a region where it has to weaken.

Is anyone taking the 18z NAM solution ... hello - any takers... Thought so

First shot across the bow autumn jet sweeping across the gaga range of the GFS right on time ...

Meanwhile .... https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/weather/greenland-summit-rain-climate-change/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/weather/greenland-summit-rain-climate-change/index.html

Lol,... I read this recent exchange snickering because 'Nope, doesn't mean you get to have a hurricane' No but I was thinking it'll end up in the same place, just taking a broader parabolic motion as thought it was a course chosen for greatest regret.

I know what you mean but that's lol - like, it's out in the ocean: 'bit of a hyrdo concern over the western side'

Yeah I really see this as 50/50 for more and less impact at all really - still. ... Summer is boring - it is. I get it. Folks that really have a kind of affinity for seeing mayhem implied in the model movies ... probably could use good ass whoopin' to keep them from red-eyed padded-cell rocking, because it is otherwise a long ass haul until anything resembling that sort of drama can manifest otherwise. Maybe we could coax Yellowstone into a mass -extinction event... Who's with me! No but it could go either way and it really seems to me that we need this to get west more before we'll see a better consensus -

Forget it - you can't penetrate the withdraw shakes with reason and logic LOL

Not affecting my mood tho - different agenda

Y'all's clearly exhibiting drug addiction-like behavior with these model cinemas - you don't get that drama... the mood withdraw is HIlarious

Beautiful out there now ... That heavy rains pushed off and we're sort of left in this tropical bath with splashes of sun and interesting cloud-scapes. It's not 'hot' yet, so it's really kind of soothing. Fred's guts - In a symbolic way it's kind of like it laid a foundation perhaps -

Heh... I was just musing to self, "Weird - the 12z NAM solution looks like a blend between the UK/GFS and may be right) The NAM?! That's just not allowed man. That's how we know this thing's doing something that no model has yet depicted - anything to prevent the NAM from being right.

Watch ... this will be the Euro run that destroys ISP to Keene with 100 mph event entry ending in 20" of stall rains ... .everyone's mood swarms like yellow-jacket's nest poked with Molly, ... only to have all the models then consensus on a track 30 Mi E of ACK - wah wah wahhhh

Okay caught up ... whatever - I still suggest that this thing needs to pass into some sort of stronger phase of intensification, such that it would be more proficiently sniffed out by the physical interpolations and/if not the outright empirical soundings, better. I annotated a post with a yellow box, yesterday, and that still seems to be the best geographical round-about region for that opportunity. Right now, ..it is encountering shear. But, from what I am seeing in the synoptic blends...proooably that continues until sometimes late tonight and tomorrow. We'll see. If/when that happens there may be some consensus gathering in the guidance.

That's likely to remain the case while it looks like a comet head being ablated backward by solar winded stressing like that - ( that's a metaphor for shear )

This is like assuming one's loot while the tax man is about to take it all away - whaaaaa 'oh, I forgot that this had a low chance of actually occurring in the first place' muah hahahaha

Okay, well ...if that is the case, that may help offset the latitude vs structure/intensity argument. I'm mid way through Page 11 in catching up LOL

Here's the thing ... ( you didn't ask, but it's a straw-man op ) A slow moving cyclone does not have the west side wind subtraction mechanics. When that happens, ... keeping in mind, that is an artifact of the forward motion of the cyclone arithmetically offsetting the wind speed over the western sector - ... slow moving thus means, less subtraction. In that simple aspect, yeah... west or east wouldn't matter in this case - or matter less than the typical climo of a "Long Island Express" Having said that, I have a problem with these UKMET and 06Z GFS solutions for an ambrosia of pretty obvious limitations. One, ...as you and Ray and me and anyone else sentient to the field knows, ...slow moving TC's over cold water doesn't lend to UKMET/GFS glory. In fact, opposite... So why they are doing that maintaining intensity is a mystery considering slow movement. Two, the compact structure they are also illustrating is unlikely at this latitude. It will almost have to be in transition to a hybrid/cooling core phenomenon, at which time it is spreading out over a larger circumvallate. blah blah... this is all geo-physical and climo clad...

That would be an interesting study ( page 11 now ...) How does the greater ambit of law enforcement handle both spikes in violent crime and homicide because of that Full Moon jazz, while there is carrying on with a category 1 or 2 blow ? Now that's an interesting convergence of teleconnections there. LOL. I mean wow Or, it will be kind of darkly comical to have all these mayhem enraged moon zombies having no where to act out, BECAUSE the storm is blocking their access to assault targets. It's like having to call the game in the 5th inning because of the weather -