Typhoon Tip

jesus... just when we're ready to pull the trigger on tossing accolades at the GFS ...it immediately puts out a cycle that looks like they detonated an a-bomb on the mother board of the Cray stack Firstly, it's not going to success in evacuating that intense N/stream arced flow over Ontario just in convenient time to take that stupid thing that far NW like that... too much mass displacement - .. It's almost like they deliberate parameterized the GFS not to phase - ..it's progressive bias just kills it... I saw the NAM and thought well...there's the Euro nod ...then the GFS seems to purposefully do odd whole-scale things to avoid it lol

D9 ...same damn thing... After the predecessor system finishes its tormented winter failure and fills/erodes on out, the next S/W coming down is one of those flat wave hyper knifes ...probably has a 45 unit v-core on the open streamline facia, but there is zippo lower tropospheric +PP to situate frontal slopes and so forth so any cyclonic result ends up on the left entrance region of the wind max and cuts inland...

nother aspect about this Euro run, there is a negative pressure pattern across all of Ontario 24 hours before the model bomb tendency, rips from the Del Marva up the Hudson Valley. Lack of cold air hasn't exactly gone unnoticed by most during this period so - perhaps it's just not parlaying to a marginal "lucky" result this time. There's just no BL resistance in early December ( that's pretty funny anyway...). You could conceivably start out at +1 C ...and if your 850 mb center goes underneath... you'll do fair better that way. But this? It just sort of wraps the low in immediately because of there's no resistance -

Yeah ...thing is, we know the EPS and operational Euro tend to deviate from one-another less. It's not like the GEFs vs the GFS ...which can be Venus vs Mars at times... Seldom does the EPS and Euro part company as much so you wonder how much the EPS ever really does what its "supposed" to do, which is offering alternatives - maybe this kinda sorta not as much as the Euro full phase is the way to go..

Quite thoughts on this ... ( who am I kidding - ) ... The QBO is not in the ideal phase for SSWs... presently, *BUT* I was looking over this stuff this morning and here's the weird part - the QBO appears to be improperly modulating in the 30 mb level: 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95 10.80 That span of 20 to 22 months has exhibited some exotic variance for the QBO. Typically, it shows a very clad, dependable periodicity ...based upon its discovery back in the post Krakatoa era and the subsequent generations of monitoring; much has been inferred and or outright measured about its behavior. One crucial aspect of which is that it starts at high levels and penetrates downward over 24 ( ~ ) month period, reversing ...it terminates around the upper troposphere...and then phase switches negative ( East ) positive ( West ). You can see in that series above that the index ( 30 mb is roughly mid sigma depth along it's slosh journey ) is not behaving according to the last 120 year suggestion. This isn't the first time ... the only other time was recently in 2015 - Now, I don't know if this has any significance to the prospect of SSWs this year... but, that 120 years of observation and statistics does show that SSWs ( in general ) are less likely to occur in significant magnitude and/or downwelling necessary to modulate the AO/PV structurally... when they are in the westerly(positive) phase. Right now it is 10.80 through October... November numbers should be along shortly provided NOAA doesn't run out of funding for that too ... But it was also trending westerly since July ... It almost seems like the QBO periodicity might be breaking down ? ... it would be unprecedented for that 120 years since Krakatoa brought attention/enlightened as to its existence. It's probably got something to do with Ray's obsession with the HC - that'd be my calculated guess

Heh ...who knows if that's why but ... whatever the cause, I used to hedge beyond D5 but once crossing inside that range ...it was dependably 70 or 80% Euro with some spicing modulated in from other guidance. Now? I don't want to actually cook shit soup so I'm forced to change that m.o.

Yeah ...but does it still have the D10 though - mmm mmm... lol

It's true Will but ... 72 hours ...hmm... That's getting kind of shallow - usually it's around the temporal seam of D4.5 into 6 where we see it correct toward less N-S curvature appeal and so forth... This seems to be either exacting its bias at an usually short window, or... it's onto something ? I don't know - I'm starting to get rattled by "the king" at this point - even if it is right about this solution ( say - ) ...the last 4 cycles seems like it's put out 3.5 different ideas ...at some point a liar is just a liar. It's spraying solution and picking one - we already have guidance that does that with eclat - it's called the Crazy "Unkle" ... I mean is it guidance or "miss"guidance -

Nice ... 14 mb over top the bombogenesis d(p)/dt requirement - ..pretty sure it's 24 mb in 24 hrs

welp ... can't hurt thanks... I mean something is better than nuttin' I just don't understand why there isn't more sense of urgency or just interest in getting f'ing funding to those indices, as the weather tends to move from the west ... toward the east last I checked, and the Pacific indices are in fact an implciation that moves ... west to f'ing east! It's really bafflingly asinine ...even for a Governmental operation that is beyond the pail incompetent boobery to maintain the NAO and dump the EPO calculations - someone needs to get fired bad... Hopefully this new administration in-coming ...with it's apparent at least modicum of respect for science and intelligence will send 'em a couple bucks to so they can turn on the servers - I mean...it's not even like there's a team of grad students, red-eyed and starving in a Dickensian workhouse calculating those f'n indexes every night - it's all automated... So what in the f* is the CDC saying when they lost funding ? Pushing a button ?? stop a third-world country why don't ya! - heh that sounds like a conversation stopper that attempts to offer not room for probing into other reasons - I don't know I'm babbling/... anyway, sure -

I also wonder about the EPO domain... Does anyone care to post or perhaps comment on the EPS' index/outlook ?? I don't care to spend money on WeatherBELL or whatever because I hate monety and economics and want Humanity to fail because of that greed-based social construct - but I digress... Kidding, but the American's stopped doing GEF- based index calculations for the WPO ..NP/EPO arc of the Pacific because of lack of funding... I'm curious because the AO falls to ~ - 2SD then appears over at CPC to then modulate to -1/-.5 before possibly falling to -2 again ending week 2... Meanwhile, the PNA appears to fall off it's perch and tries to neutralize if not go neggie out there... Typically when the AO is negative and the PNA is negative, the EPO shows blocking tendencies with a Pac jet undercutting... I don't know if the EPO is reflecting a blocking chance.. The operational GFS doesn't really appear very interested in loading height anomalies over the Alaskan sector so... The EPO can also emerge rather abruptly ...not as often/stochastic as the NAO,...no, but anyway... -AO sustaining while the PNA slumps could be an indication that the EPO may block a bit mid month.

well... one thing that 300 era of this GFS' deep field, fuzzy optical horizon of the known Universe idea has going for it, it'll be deeper into the -AO ...assuming it really lasts that long. And, sets up conveyors over on our side of the hemisphere. It seems what's happening between this D3-6 ...versus the 5-9... then onward into the 9+ range is a gradual cooling of the hemisphere while the same storm frequency sort of is maintained? Seems/looks like a 3 or so day average periodicity between Colorado/Miller A hybrids ( that may B too ) while we slowly stack cold within reach over the lower Canadian Shield... I think that's sort of the consensus ... Ray's been all over that part of the month and given ( at least per - ) the GEFs mass-field/index behavior that seems like we have the best nexus of actually having cold air available to these "drought corrections"

In the 1990s through about 2004 or '05 ... one could count on the over-under flopping negative enough in these marginal late mid range modeled setups, where the thermal layout looked like +2 with those 0C hole punches on colorful charts? - lol... Nowadays, as I opined half tongue in cheek a few days ago ...it seems more and more the flop direction tends to positive by crucial decimals and we miss out. I also get what you mean by the -AO .... that plus the +PNA really should "slow things down" a little, but I also think those indices battle with the speedy hemisphere thing that kicked in about 10 year ago and has gone on to set commercial airline ground speed records routinely every winter since... I think one flight, LGA to Hethro ...I think it was 3 hr and 51 minutes but don't quote me... maybe it 5 and change...but, but the plane was said to be doing sound speed relative to surface due to 200 kts sustain laminar flow and they had to open the throttle to maintain lift... wow. Anyway, I also wonder if the 'west' vs 'east' NAO orientation modulates things - in fact we know it does...how much or how little ?

Yup... and the N/stream ( just adding to your assessment there ...) is rather consistent as to when it dives through the Lakes. The 7/8th idea of yesterday had more "cold plausibility" ( if you will...) because the N/stream had a chance to time better... But this GFS solution seems to like the ICON and they are both now wrapping up a silver Nor'easter out of an entirely S/stream entity - or too much so to even work on marginality ...either way. I mean there's time... and, as this chart below shows, there is cold air near-by ...really close actually from a greater synoptic perspective, but it just won't integrate -

Yeah... I mentioned this awhile ago ...what this thing can't do - for the winter scenery enthusiasts ...heh - is be totally southern stream, or it'll rain everywhere beneath the summits. That ICON solution is rather fortuitously timed as a learning tool, because of how it summarily then jams that concept down one's throat... One can just see it in the thickness contouring there, that the N/stream 'failed' to capture, and the system is pretty clearly as Ray pointed out...conserved southern stream sounding as it rolls up underneath and evades intermingling with those pretty blue colors tauntingly avoiding it because the Germans hate Christmas... LOL

It's almost like this 'uncertainty period' itself was written on the wall ...when the GEFs started hammering a PNA mode changes, but the EPS was/has been hesitating. So far - not sure this has any value but might ... - the EPS seems to be slowly caving to the +PNA ... that "might" be an indication that the Euro forecast system is more suspect - But it is hard to blame the EPS/Euro camp entirely...because the GFS has had its own continuity headaches too - ...I think it's just a bad model performance period of time and maybe the PNA rise, while the AO and NAO correcting negative ( which, where the hell is the blocking then ?) , during transition season no less... it may all just be too much. I thought the Euro's genius was that it smoothed noise but heh -

probably remedial for some but ... this business with the D5.5 thru 7 period ( or so ) seems pretty text- booky/academic mode change headaches ... And ...as an afterthought ..whatever does ultimately get ejected off the Pacific may be over or under assimilated ...and small doses of error either way would also destine the way those main players start dating down stream. They need their god ( the western ridge and total L/W x coordinate/nuance scaffolding ) to actually make them compatible on the Zodiac chart though ... Sometimes fate tries to pair up a Capricorn with a Pisces and ... that usually ends up in flickering blue lights embarrassing the neighbors. You need wave harmonics -

Whole evolution leaves s lot on the field too ... N/stream actually fails to capture /subsume ... long duration southern stream rolling under a marginal atm ... it’s okay

00z GFS set up is naughty at 120 hrs

18z GFS wave interferes everything for 384 hrs. Jesus

...it's funny how we all got our thing - i have an uncanny memory for patterns and indices ... but dates ? - luke warm if not cool on those -

word! I just got the 'little critter' in Feb on the wrong year but the other stuff was right - For some reason I always wanna put that damn thing in 04' ...not sure why - ..heh, it's not the first time he's had to correct me on that sucker. Oh I imagine 20 years from now it'll be 'No, that was Feb 03, the previous year'

I think Will may be right - I think we need to bump our recollect one year earlier - haha... my bad. OH, wait never mind - f me!

That winter went on to be a syrupy cold winter ..wow. It was a west based -NAO pulser - one of the last great NAO winters where NAO actually did mean storms and cold because it modulated the right way... Fickle index. But I remember -9 F on numerous mornings. That was the year ( early Feb ) that a "little Critter that bites" swathed 10" of "flurries" along the eastern end of the Pike, with 6" on either side out to 30 or so miles...out of nowhere sending NWS scrambling to now-cast a warning event -

Yup...I was living in Winchester then, which as you know is just 4 or 5 miles down Washington street from Woburn there... about 24" in our driveway... I don't think there was snow on the ground at xmass - but don't quote me...