Typhoon Tip

Just make sure it's because you turned on your direction signal and moved to the off-ramp in a purposeful...successfully executed series of movements - LOL ... I mean, 'head somewhere off the highway' sounds like a comedic lead in to what happens on snow covered roads -

This is happening as the N/stream is relaying over the Lakes from a source region that is relatively assimilated/spartan of phsycially realized data. Mere coincidence? We spoke of this and this solution do precisely ... bringing more insert in the N/stream torques the whole structure ...adding mechanical cyclogenic parameterization and forcing a westerly reposition ... here we go.. wdrag ? CT/ lower zones are tough.. timing change-over... You may have been right about the storm, but the snow vs rain is troublesome. We have grid concerns.. up our way, and it'll be close by down that way. From NE CT to metro W/ORH to ASH-MHT/CON ... usual suspects. Prime generators - This event is multi-faceted ... I am curious about hydro. d(absorption)/dt is ready to take in due to resent priming. That said, 2.5" of QPF in 12 hours may send smaller waterways considering we just delivered 2.5 recently... But, if these FOUS NAM numbers are factorable... folks need to be advised that the biggest concern/implication in these numerics for BOS is not the snow ... although, the west of the city out toward even Arlington Hgts...Waltham to Burlington could wall 20" of blue bomb and that's a real, real big grid problem for these bolded numbers: 24027989252 06608 090511 45060200 24068989251 -0710 050118 45050200 30126989449 31909 960235 48040002 30040767521 00414 033322 39050097 36117989131 01615 933136 42009998 36000722604 00416 083121 35029695 42033948530 -5716 972930 37999596 42000752507 -0320 093120 34009596 36 kts of mid boundary layer 'shock' wind increase ... going from 05, 11 kts zephyr to 30 deg back shift and acceleration ( and not the 1009 to 996, 6-hrly dp/dt!!!!), that's a pretty clear suggestion for an isollobaric wind pulse due to bombing rates .. probably a bit cross isobaric too... I bet the 310 deg ... 36 kt sustained mid bl flow at 36 hours ..the low is probably still out in the Harbor. This a big problem where we overlay the acceleration deformation in the nearby westerly towns/metro-west with snow loading.

Not to derail the thread ..it's been a rather nicely focused, information-worthy ... But I happen to agree with you. The "flop" direction ... ( perhaps even the "synergistic" tendency as a separate metric) in marginal/marginality seem warmer than prior generation/decades spanning way back. Problem is that we're talking about the realm of nuance and subtleties - decimals and lacking "obviousness." That's why I put synergistic in quotes/parenthetical, because it's like the 'emergence' patterning? ..I guess in a simply terms, 'the dice are sort of weighted to flop marginal set ups at our latitude ...warmer than 50 years ago' Shouldn't really offend people - LOL. I think part of the apprehension ... when not outright resent, is because this/these sort of ideas ... they are topics situated in the general implication/notion what people just don't like: GW ...anything related to that never seems to set well without one of three most likely reactions: vitriol, ... organized 'ebullient' skepticism where the bias against is tactically more difficult to detect, ...ignored all-together.. ... climate change doesn't have a direct corporeal 'red hand'. One cannot feel GW directly. It is thus too easily questioned ... You need Ray's sociological acumen and or some other psycho-babble input to stitch the cause-and-effect the rest of the way...but, I am strongly suspectful that lacking a direct physical sensibility enables indeferrance ... denial happens because it can... and the catch-22 ( which I know because I was raised by an Anthropologist parent ) is that tribes and communities are wired to protect traditional views.. because they are survival cues. When change ripples through populations? Wars have began that way ... fascinating actually... Anywho... I don't have a problem with stepping back to an 'orbital perspective' and suggesting that, gee ... GW is real, at some point one's region may manifest therein... Even if it is subtle or nuanced...

I’m not sure one should be… I’ve been saying all along .... should the northern stream comes over the border over the lakes and it’s more intense ...it was under assimilated or under sampled because it was passing through a bit of a data shadowing up there then the phase is going to torque the flow more ...the storm ends up being pulled in closer im not saying it’s good or bad I’m just talking about the storm track is the feedback from strength of the troposphere

Oh ha. I thought that was directed at the straw man .. it’s all good. yeah no way the GFS scores holding liquid that long when the sub-700 is getting flipped over by intense UVM ...

Nah ... no way folks. The 850mb 0C isotherms regionally collapses E of Logan and the model holds heavy R type fall rates under deep UVM in the CCB ... that’s busting too warm ... column definitely implodes at the same cooling rate plumb to the surface there over interior eastern MA/N RI

Not personally impressed with the ICON performance but ... most models scoring C .. C- on this so it may get cut a break. ...save the Euro, which despite some recent cackling/street cred has been more consistent within acceptable error anyway this run may very well be the most impressive cinema to date bar none. ... sumilar to what Will was saying re the RG’ ... not sure I buy ICONic dynamics in CCB R++ rain ball without a more aggressive ptype conversion. It does eventually go over but pussy foots around

I don't believe this reflects much, Walt and your insights were just as valued/veracious as any. This particular synoptic evolution leading posed some unique challenges ..despite the 30 years tech advances as you note, here we are at 60 or < lead yet are uneasy over phase proficiency. I'm still not fully convinced we won't expose/impose some morphology when the eastern Manitoba wind max samples south, and it won't take much to torque around a westerly adjustment - as you noted 2 degrees of longitude is doable at 60 hours. We can only benefit from what we give said tech and wager our experience. Not sure the modeling prep is that infallible over interior Canadian shield and having past S of the Alaskan sector -

yea... just indulge me this one statement but I posted about this in the Dec thread... I'm suspicious of that in the > direction frankly - I'm not shocked at seeing that and I'd also say that it is sufficient already there ( note the short -wave ridging ejecting along the NJ to SNE region is actually a portend ... ) That sig diving wind max west of Chi town factors ... also, - the 18z GFS tri-wave phases too fwiw - That may not be right exact but I believe the 8th should be watched - yeah man

For enthusiasts ...you want these subtle increasingly progressive appeals... not hanging around... I'd be happy to compromise on less residence... 4-6" ...yeah maybe 10 in a meso band... get 'er on outta here ...and I think we're watching the 8th more closely then presently aware. - not the time nor thread for that but it relates due to wave ordering in the synoptic bigger picture.

It's only funny because he's exactly perfectly correct with this approach and probably the sanest possible subjective approach as well... I also tried to point out about the CSI/meso banding potential earlier and that's the biggest wild card in this... It doesn't matter if your snowing 7::1 if you get lightning/ thunder squall activity you'll dump excessive rates and when doing so, the ratio jumps/improves to 4/5 /hr rates....

Or ... here's an option that every wants to happen - this thing fumbles around and misses by undetectable nuances... but sufficiently large enough to also f'up the wave spacing so the 8th misses too - - man... shut down the web site

Meh... NAM beyond 48 hours... Probably lucky to have had the sort of "continuity" that we've had up to this point with this guidance. I was just commenting over in the Dec thread that you know we've predicated much on the assumption that the models ( if we're even thinking about it...) are cogent with their sampling/initializations of that crucial N/stream S/W ... that's gotta be accurate to accurately assess what happens during/proficiency of phasing ..timing ... all of it. It's up over the western shores of JB ... I dunno ..perhaps satellite soundings are wholly sufficient but I got a feeling that could also impost some shorter term morphologies on this thing when that starts cutting over Michigan 24 hours from now. So all of that ... plus, the NAM suffers from this sort of vicissitudes at those ranges anyway - ... I guess in short my thinking on this doesn't deviate at all based upon any a single 60 hour NAM solution - I'm sure no one else's does either, just sayn'

Low probability but you know ..we may have to watch the 8th... It occurs to me, ... I'm thinking the system for the 5th/6th may actually get a 'phase boost' when the S/W wind max up N of Lake Superior over western JB region plummets S over the Lakes - I mean we've predicated our ideas ultimately on models and assuming that's cogently integrated off well-sampled data and it's not - least I don't see how it can be... It'll be an interesting test to see how if there is any morphology upon that cutting over Michigan... Anyway, the 8th is similar ... The only difference is the wave spacing between the 6th exit and the 8th is just too close...Otherwise, that's really a reduxing the 5th/6th set up. You have a southern stream vestigial 'placeholder' ejected from the W and then S/W mechanics subsumes from the N/stream...If the N/stream were stronger - and it is presently still over the Gulf of Alaska ... - then it could torque things up and overcome. It's plausible even if unlikely ... just something to watch ...

lightning is likely in this ...

Granted we've shed a tick or two off the 925 mb level temps ... perhaps owing to height falls/dynamic kick-backs... As we suggested over an hour ago, this run may bump east and be more intense. I don't know - is it more intense? I mean there's multiple metrics to make the determination - it's not just the pressure depth... but it did bump east. Anyway, I think October 2011 may have actually been colder in the 900 mb level ... I have a memory of reading some really exotically ( relative to calendar date) like - 6 C down that deep in the troposphere where the event's CCB axis was channeling... I don't know if we are done cooling of this one yet, either - I could see this wavering off another 1.5 in now-cast because those kind of dynamic/discrete feed-backs are not really modeled - not the extent they actually modulate. The runs just are not that nuanced yet ... give it another 30 years lol. Altho - ...sometimes I wonder if they figure out how to control the weather before the models necessarily predict the future - ... who cares about prediction if we can zap the atmosphere with instructions at quantum scales. Hey...bite me - it's good sci fi -

Not trying to be a dink but it seems these trends turning page into shorter range are to narrow the axial impact pretty close to Willamantic CT -- Worcester Hills east in particular from nuanced topographic lift -- on up to ASH/MHT Over the western side of that ... mmm I think it may expand a little farther W-NW ... I like the structure of the 'fanning' 500 mb left exit jet field - that's going to draw up some lift and I wouldn't be shocked if we see a poorly modeled additional arced or amorphous banding feature smeared out that way... I don't know if that's going to be enough for 'decks and trees' issues where you are. But this looks like power problems to me further east along said axis .. ..even if we do the dynamic 31.2 F ... that is going to cake some serious mass loading ...and then tossing isollobaric wind response ... ho man - I mean, power goes out ... power goes out - big deal. I just personally hate it because my f'n house is all electric for heat... then of course, light and internet/television and it's completely cut off from the world in a house steadily cooling while surrounding by a fresh foot of seasonal blue bomb snow... the novelty of that runs out really, really f'n fast man - By the way folks, this is a classic front half of December blue bomb...

man... if we can get this to bump 500 miles east in total mass ... you'd be talking a mass exodus evacuation level event -

Well... probably should take the question mark off the title - ...seems that siggy cyclogen's no longer much in question ...

You almost wonder .. phase change from solid to liquid water states requires a little extra 'oomph' so a 33 or 34 F while ongoing moderate to heavy R, in a sounding that's CCB isothermal beneath .. 800 mb or so... maybe parachute fat aggregates overcome that - ...

Once the column saturates ...it'll probably be an isothermal sounding ... then, if there are super structural mixing events like 'folding' and or entraining more thermodynamically cooler air source form the W/N... I've seen 34 F blue events starts cobwebbing off of eaves when the storm maxes... Then, when the storm pulls away ...couple click bounce back... This does get colder by 6 to 10 dm thickness in the 500mb to surface layer, and 850 thermal layout has cold around the backside synoptic layout as it is leaving so...probably this ends up drying out a little over the course of it.

The short answer is that the "3 KM" refers to the grid spacing ... The "regular" 12z run is 32 KM ... I'm pretty sure the finer meshed meso models are developed to try and pick up on smaller scaled ... yet important events that the global models are less capable of resolving due to their larger spacing. That gap is closing though... as tech increases in sampling/sensory, and computing power has pretty much already become incomprehensible ... the global numerical models ( a.k.a., ECMWF, GGEM ..), are approaching those limitations. I'm not frankly sure what the GFS' layout is these days? Anyone.. ?? I'm pretty sure the ensemble membership of the ensemble system has recently been added members - I don't know if the the finite grid of the models/cluster is smaller tho . The model's can and do implement 'convective sequencing' variations - that just means different physical equations ( slightly ...) that handle vertical displacement phenomenon ( convection )within the model... In a situation such as this, the height falls are creating an 'instability feedback' - I believe ...other Mets may have insights - and then the 3KM NAM ...which is intrinsically evolved to be a convection/thunderstorm initiation, may thus be more sensitive ... in then over the evolution of the cyclone - boom, and thus is producing... big dynamical subsequent/additional feed-backs once that convection is going ...etc... As far as the Euro coming east .. I still think the very early vestiges of consensus really began yesterday... These more finer meshed models "appear" to be assessing the jet interaction /stream phasing ...certainly differently than the GFS has been, but ...you have different species in the GGEM, Euro and NAM ...yet they end up similarly ... ACK-ish and other than typical 'giga' motions cycle-to-cycle ..the deviations haven't ( in my mind ) been too distracting. That might suggest that error is centered in the spacing aspect, more so than the perturbed physical variation of mathematics native to each one. ...

That salmon there ... I almost see that as snow with bullets embedded and occasional lightning

Not sure where these pop offs from you are coming from but it is out of line and frankly comes off as exactly what I said - 'defensive' Stop saying this shit - the support group aspect is a joke. A JOKE ... I have more than one occasion grouped myself in with the phenomenon of it - christ lighten up