Typhoon Tip

Big wind just arrived here in interior NW Middlesex Co out along Rt 2... Est that was 45 mph gust in the canopy level and the house creaked when it white roared passed...

You know what this reminds me of ? In 2003, early Dec we had a southerly gale that pushed nearly 70 Dps clear to Manchester NH...replete with sheeting rains going sideways under street lamps... and even stopped raining long enough to just be very windy and spooky warm...then, a ribbon echo squall ends around midnight... two days later, we had a windex snow event that made headlines for how 1.5" of snow burst in temps that crashed from 36F to 19F over and that many hours, ... flashed I-95 and gridded eastern Mass ... 3 days later, ...well - 20" over Metrowest... Not saying this transition is reduxing that - no...but, but it reminds me if we get these 60+ DPs and this evening thrashing ... then, say the deal on the weekend is a cold advection pivot point, then a few clicks later that coastal manages to set up - does at least spatially remind me of that . spatially - I mean...we aren't going to be 9 F prior to any coastal in 8 days hahaha... that'd be a neat trick

something like that affect... metaphorically speaking of course but yeah. We're either going full in our f'n around with how to weasel out lol

Not holding a candle ...yet, to PVD but ORH is now gusting to 35 mph and they popped 55 F... this warm frontal intrusion is a fire-hose aloft man

We're wobbling tree limbs now and the temp has surged from 43 an hour.5 ago to 57! .... So, some form of either CF or warm frontal intrusion has punched this far N/NW into the region of SNE. Still getting jungle-drop steady R though...

ha, the flip side of that coin says, ' Last year was so good in model performance, they were never fooled by the bad pattern'

One could almost argue there was in the spring though ...mid to late March in 2014 ... which, yeah, for the purposes of present context doesn't help the winter of 2013-2014, huh ? lol just sayn'

I didn't like the look Euro run ' as is ' but ... may still be molding the clay on that Dec 6 thru 10 period of time ... If I had to anthropomorphize the Euro model,... you got a panel member that's sort of holding back while sending in a placeholder ...biding time while it continues to analyze how/why to either go full in, or pull full out - it sees the possibility but isn't convinced ... I don't like the D5 to D6 transition there ...that appears like the model's doing the over curved deepening it biases at that temporal boundary ... I mean a little - there are worse examples of it doing that than this run... but it does seem to get a total structure there from less input on the previous day(5)

Yup ... and, like we said last night ... probably have to go on and off with these peregrinations for a couple days, too - I mean don't be shocked if say ...12z tomorrow we're back to that separate weirdness again... The 00z, 06z. and 12z operational GFS runs all have definitively different ideas on how to handle the flow coming off the NE Pac over the PNA evolving arced flow up over the NW Terr. of Canada and really...everything that happens on the 7/8th of Dec is going to come down to that being handled right and uh...heh, we aren't really there yet. Some of that mechanics is plausibly even based upon enhancements as the sourcing is deep oceanic basin regional... That's another thing about this PNA ..the flow is rather flat for numbers as large as CPC ( GEFs -based)... It may be adding to model discontinuity -

lol, I was noticing that as far as the GFS operational run goes... the deeper layer/mid level vortex position over Lake Huron has been pegged there clicking back some 15 ( not kidding ) cycles... ( Trop. TB) literally... It's like, clone-clone-clone-clone-clone.... all the way back, offering zero hope. The GFS is probably not as bad as we think as a model huh

Didn't ask me but ... heh, probably combines two primary motivational factors - ( Conditionalized expectations + recent events ) / 2 = impatience and losing site of normalcy ... The left side of that addition is formulated or encouraged over the recent years since ...really 2000, where 50% + autumns have featured air mass supportive, or outright pulling off...early snow events. You know? It's like entitled now... It reminds me of Wright Weather and early Eastern BB... and the mid Atlantic entitlement after Jan 1996. Five years later ... when internet social media emerged, they popped on the scene clearly ( and "justly") jilted because they weren't getting the snows that NYC was - I can believe we are closing in on 15 years since that era - wow... man. Heh I guess it's a bit of abstract reference at this point - But it doesn't help that recently we 4-6" ed another Halloween ... it seems ever since then there's been this palpable undisclosed 'okay, let's do this' and every time the pattern doesn't... you get grousing to make up for the missing wind gusts... I guess that call that "guffing" lol...

word, 27 here ... yeah, either warm front or perhaps even a CF mixed into that mess appears to be tipping N to about 93 N or so...

I mentioned this a while ago ... in jest/half joking but it's true. You go look at NWS Obs or ...metrowest this and that, and they are routinely apple-cheeked 10 year old clone of dad out flying kites in gee-golly bambi breezes - why in the hell cant these obs just tell the truth.... ducking wind roars are scary" - call it DWRAS ALL DIRECTIONs

really not much different than you here N Middle-lack-of-sex County ( Ayer ...)... 41, near calm wind, R/R-

NICE ... yeah...I'm not thinking tor's for us NE of NYC ... but, with the warm sector naked to the sky a ribbon echo sort of tucked or hidden on rad later in the evening may rip some dramatic mixing ... then the wind goes calm after and we dry slot... But who knows - these things often "look" or appeal a certain way and then doesn't - I don't admittedly have my finger on the pulse of advection driven tornadoes in late November climatology - hahaha

wow...wow... I love that - ...lucky. Those kind of defined synoptic boundaries laying the law are fascinating. Still 41 at mi casa with no wind and deliciously soothing rain on the back of necks - .... yuck

Warm front may be nearing the Pike ... or is very thin inversion remain between the Pike and N rim of CT but... you're also at what ? ...750' ...that may just be enough to STICK your toes up into it -

Need to get the warm front thru - that's step 1 pending that arrival ...then we move on to step 2 ... I'm wondering if this has the low lcl check-list going on ...and if the wind may also back a bit in vallies - should the warm front intrude say to Rt 2 up along N mass... and that wind funneling in low areas combined with LCL's being saturated/low bring lift cores closer down..blah blah ...

Fairly impressive warm boundary suggestion by local obs... Willimantic CT bounced to 58 over the last hour ... breezy SSE at 22 mph according to Metrowest but probably the trees lean more than that ( you know? how obs never seem to really match it when electrical spatter falls from powerline junctions and timbre cracks echo from the woods heh ) ... Meanwhile, ORH at 1,000 K is still parked at 42 with very little NNE wind. Those locations are really nearby in wind coordinates so the frontal slope must be pretty steep -... an homage to that WCB attempting to hydro-mine through that denser air's elevated cliff-face lol. Kevin reporting gusts now audible ... too - I think it aligns roughly Torrington CT to NW of PVD to interior SE Mass ... I can't wait to see this thing penetrate through ...I wonder if makes it rt Poop up here though... Sometimes they do and all at once I turbine and a stepping outside reveals surreal heat out of nowhere -

the differences in the GFS' handling of the N/stream ... in terms of timing, placement and amplitude, comparing the 00z 06z and 12z operational cycles are elaborately coherent. It's not a situation where these cycles are showing nuanced changes that make determinism difficult - they literally don't look like the same play book entirely up over the NW Territories of NW Canadian shield. That part of this PNA amplification is proving quite a problem with rather large stochastic/continuity changes - to make matters even more obfuscating ... the differences show no clear trend progression - like, 00z big, 06z a little less... the 12z lesser still.. 00z big, 06z nill, 12 half way back. And the GGEM... ? I mean wtf - ... It has a defined system on both the 00z and 12z runs, but they are coming from entirely different large scale mechanism... 00z was a weak southern stream phase initiation and a complete N/stream subsume thing... but this run is pure southern stream vortex lazily wobbling up toward Albany ... I don't know... we may not parlay well through any of this? We might not - .. but, I'm still intrigued and willing to stick it out when the AO/NAO tandem is falling, and the PNA is rising to + 2 SD... Pattern change and indices mode flips typically are problems for guidance -

Scott ... I think - depending on one's tech ... - this weekend is more than mere 'voodoo' Tho I am not entirely certain what you mean by that? I think it means plausible but unlikely ?? Either way, I don't get to see the EPS -based index derivatives, so taken fwiw ... my assessment is purely GEFs oriented. That said, this weekend has some spotential for significant storminess ..100 or so hrs .. is already part of the same "correcting" circulation medium. Not talking a major event or anything though for that D4.5 range but ... it's like we are rolling with weighted dice more favorably from now through Dec 10 because imm blw - ...Yes to the latter. Whether that is another inland cordillera runner, or PD redux or an asteroid impact ... just sayn' an active pattern. This is actually hugely signaled really by the 2-week declination of the AO/NAO ...apparently moving in a coupled fashion, landing on the top of the total +2.5 SD PNA correction that frankly doesn't really immediately collapse out there at the end of week two but merely is concertedly slumping off ... That could emerge more positive in the member blend. The long of the short on all that is ... that a negatively differentiating polar index that is armed by the NAO as being a cold delivery source, with an H.A. signal ( at mid latitudes ...) with the PNA in tandem is, in my mind, more substantial than mere plausible already underway so ... mm...

NAO drop does suggest suppression along the Coast ... "eventually" I am not sure - by this weekend ... - that sort of suppressive exertion by a -NAO is sufficiently garnered/ large enough, however. It may ...but that's probably not the case in my mind? This NAO index decline is a gradual drop off... It is not really "jolting" the hemisphere with any sort of usurping force when it takes 10 days to abrate 1.5 SD ... ending in a mop ended fray out there week 2 or so... Also, the "west" vs "east" biased blocking in the super-synoptic layout of the geopotential height medium plays an important role in the amount suppression over eastern North American longitudes... East imposes less and vice versa In other words, if I were asked ...I would be inclined to suggest that the weekend impulse probably rides up the geopotential interface ... prior to any -NAO exertion setting in... and that the Euro run is typically too far S on D6 with it's almost due east escape off the Va Capes like that... It's fiddling with perspectives admittedly ... I think it is worth watching that little guy though, ... I mean...nothing major or very noteworthy but .. folks around here really want snow in the air - or at least the cinema of the chance for it in the models ... - and failing that, many of them lose out on happiness. Lol...

Blue Hill over to the cap of The Pru' ... Not an altogether impressively - by interior OV/NE ...EC standards - cyclonic depth. But the synoptic layout in general.. it's a big low pressure 'area' - it's almost entirely where it's anomaly/ISE is/are oriented, that/those being just the girth of this thing alone... Be that as it may, it'll be hauling a llv jet up and crucially as to whether that wind is realized closer to/on the ground comes down to lapse rate. What is the actual anomaly calculation for this warm conveyor belt velocity where it is max, and is that located in front or beneath the warm intrusion latitude? I think we've seen some big modeled wind belts in the past ...fail to really materialize, and then others seemed more paltry but ended up over producing.. It really comes down to whether the SFC to 900 mb level pressure gradient crosses up with steepening lapse rates. If yes, snap crackle and pop.. If no, really really fast cloud motion with just some white noised turbine sounds but unmemorable. As far as convection ...typical modulator ... I think there is limited/less resistance to warm boundary displacement N up the the coastal plain of the EC - can see the current warm placement near the VA Capes as amorphous if not repositioning closer to the south coast getting there in an "air" or rapidity. But even N of that axis,...I can imagine there may be some ribbon echo line sinuously side-winding west to east amid a shreds of other rad shrapnel racing NNE at ludicrous speeds... That's a different momentum concern than the mixing the LLJ aspect outlined further above. So, multi faceted result of the first in the +PNA modal load ... We'll see if the 108 hr ...then again ... 180 to 200 hr periods also get their 'synergistic' sort of feed-back and correct more prevalent in future runs. I think there's a chance they may -

Or the U.P. for that matter ... I mean there’s mall towns in between meth labs up there otherwise it’s just beaver dams and duck shit

I would suggest the Euro comes in > 50% in agreement with these two players ... 12z almost gave impression of suspended physical process while en route to this sort of frame up as it is and I’ve seen this in the past where a guidance more fully commits and sort of “finishes where it left off” on ensuing run