Typhoon Tip

This storm has an upside potential ... not presently really seen in QPF distribution... As is, there's a narrow band between the 500 mb and the 300 mb jet fields that is trying to open up from NW VA to western MA ... 12z Friday. It's possible that gap widens a bit between those features - though probably not hugely so... Anyway, that band could nest a pretty strong CSI type band ...because the 500mb, 120 kt jet max is displaced E of the 300 mb ... which is cruising along at close to 200kt! There's likely to be a slot of enhanced lift along that region ... mid level fun and games.

This an learning op in why a fast flow is too much of a good thing sometimes. If it gets fast enough it'd dismantle all cyclogen kinematics down to an ANA thing...

Yup...I feel pretty confidence myself this ( 22.5th to 25th ) interval will be the next thread designation after the 18th/19th one... I did mention it briefly near the start of that one, but didn't want to bog it down. It's been popping up more so than not among the various GEF members for the past week - fwiw. Also, it fits the established local pattern's periodicity also fwiw - It's not a really teleconnector signaled/ .. correction event, however... So, I would caution that it might suffer more the fairly persistent modeling tendency to see the size of the moon coming over their distant vision as a ginormous impacting doom storm ...only to have it rise higher into clarity as smaller version - ... ah, the models have had to deamplify/ tone-down some, just about everything in that time range when it comes less than D5 .. 4.. etc. If it had more of the corrective appeal, it might have a different physical presence in the general circulation and that's a different result... But here's the thing that also could offset that - so it's not an automatic assumption, either. I am noticing that there is a tendency - albeit a bit deceptively hidden - for the heights to try and bulge either up the Rockies, or in from the NE Pac...take a pick at model and what variant. If that proves real... than suddenly, there's your corrective kick in and the thing gets more amplitude/ synergy off the L/W trickery and that would tend to offset the model correction need - So... enjoy your migraine

Mm.. this event I think has potential to modulate in the models more so than the usual amount for monitoring/ .. deterministic efforts at less than D4 I'm noticing that there is a 'staggered' relaying of jet mechanics ... a whopping large amount too, that is ripping over southern California ... while the L/W axis is amplifying toward west TX over the next 48 or so hours. That lagged feed can morph things in short lead ...seemingly out of nowhere. If a Pacific wave is alone out there...I think the assimilation may perform with higher proficiency for limiting 'missing' crucial momentum aspects... I'm not sure that is the case when you got caboosed "punch" jet that is/a some 3000 km long tube of wind at 125 kts driving into the backside from off the Pacific grid. At 300 mb in the oper. GFS it's 150! I am wondering how the assimilation tech handles that kind of integral feed - The NAM does not have as much of this latter arriving mechanics ...but given to the flat trajectory - overall - coming off the Pacific and tracing that wind tunnel back in the runs, its still not even in the NAM grid ... I'm sure it's getting relayed into the NAM's grid by something ... I wouldn't trust the NAM ( heh, goes without saying)

Yeah I've been operating under that same assumption with this ICON thing for awhile now

Whomever mentioned the 'two pulsed' idea, that is correct. The thread opener ... I mentioned that the models et al were flaming a lead acceleration of the mid level wind field along the W - NW arc of the vestigial SE/West Atl ridging... What is fascinating about that is that among the various guidance, it's not really associated with a S/W approach / exit jet mechanics nosing in.. It's actually L/W compression of the heights that is triggering that acceleration... One that is also prevalent in these recent NAM guidance; but as that acceleration first encounters the nascent polar-arctic air mass about to be put into place from the interior MA up through New England regions, the NAM is then producing a pretty potent isentropicl lifting band betrayed by that navy blue with nested magenta pixels in there.... That wanes off as that accelerating jet field pass by - lull ensues. Then...the NAM uses the immediately heeled trough to then generate a paltry coastal ...but perhaps enough in the latter mechanics to still swath a moderate snow/CCB genesis as noted... Is all that right? Not sure... The numerical/ Globals appear to make distinctions between those two 'events' more seamless ...like the 00z GFS ...which ended up with a 24 hour event, managing somehow to pull that off in what quite possibly could be the fastest possible flow there can be on the planet - man that's getting lucky ...

If that happens there’s a band doing 2/3”/hr easily

May be too amped but the GFS is mid lvl magical juggernaut ... but the QPF is substantial in long trajectory format anyway and looks like 8-12” most areas save for the s coast without meso / way early to get into that. that 500 mb vector containing that huge pulsed wind max riding over that cold would likely jam inflow jets straight into a very steep elevated frontal slope. I bet GFS 850-700 mb frontigen has a bright band

Slipped back to 26.5 here in Ayer rad looks like the whole bag is trying to miss NW at this point. Wow its like it’s not enough the models did bad its trying to find ways to make them badder lol

Lol - you took my flip vision and doubled it down I dunno ‘bout blizzards to bliss in a week ... but I’d say if March ins like a lion ... and flipped mid month that’s pretty damn abrupt

Is this an 18z distinction for the next 2 week? I just have this weird vision that we get slammed by Gatling gun PAC waves for 17 days then it goes summer in mid March in a grand flip. Like the seasonal change back in 2010 in April - it was like 48 with low DP pellets next day 65 next day upper 80s

Yeah I’m not really sold on the idea we get out of this month without several concerns ... maybe into the first week of March. also - op runs are fighting ensemble means. Wondering what the PNA and AO look like over at the EPS

How long does one believe winter will last on Feb 15 ? Yeah, winter is "almost over" - deal with it... That said, it's compounded by the complete break down of the erstwhile -AO, toward the positive mode, while the PNA is collapsing negative. These operational runs do little to offset the veracious and rational acceptance of those weightier signals/indices ... Additionally, no one said this was right away either... This was slated for March. It was March possibly flipping the script to an above normal/ spring-like month. It's not like people are trying sell a dog shit taco to Julia Child in this..

This thing has much more powerful mid level mechanics involved than tomorrow's thing .. .yet, the surface evolution is paltry relative to that - interesting..

what does that mean ?

I know ... It's annoying... I put in bold not to do that - please... what happens - I don't know if it's not really reading, or just disrespect - not sure...But, I guess you get what you get with a free-for-all and the general public lol

I just I dunno ...I guess it's too much to ask of this concentration of internet folk to not be human when it comes to being recently mislead by model "lies" re- the present system, to then come in here and be sloped objective ? ...prooobably not happening. ha

How in the hell does that logically follow ? ... You're previous observations do not appear to connote that -

Damage gets done on the GGEM's 12z ... coldest/snowiest run yet ...and keeps with the trend theme. In fact, I almost don't want - as a snow enthusiast - to slip any more than it has. That's a low climate cyclone with a PWAT advantage, all snow NW of Willamantic CT - Logan ( ~) look there where relative to weak profile .. over-achieves by some. It may taint IP to Worcester, but along and above that line to about S VT - MHT NH looks like 11" max with 7 " downward option - that's my interpretation of the GGEM I'm sure this has been noted, but that V16 made a definitive commitment /jump to the coast ... again - weak/moderate LP, descent QPF mechanics in snow column N of the Pike... It should be noted, much of this is contingent upon two factors - from what I'm seeing anywho.. . One, nascent polar/arctic hybrid high pressure nearly quintessentially located at storm entry ...only slowly recedes E but after tuck jets and CAD effects extend the snow sounding to the 700 mb level - which is sufficient to preclude a warm wedge at that level ...a.k.a. the faulty NAM ( I suspect... ) .. The other factor is a subtle tendency to back off the mid level trough kinematics in the BUF region leading...putting more emphasis in the wind max(s) riding up midriff Appalachia .. That helps trunk off the elevated warm intrusion if that trend continues to evolve - and if so...we may yet see more Miller B commitment and even some intensity given back - that's plausible but not depicted.

Fwi(not)w, the ICON's gone/going S .. This is not a majorly powerful low/deep barometric pressure event ... It benefits from having a substantive PWAT tap from the deep S - evidenced as the b-c zone is observable in the guidance depressed into the mid Bama-Georgia region mid week, prior retreating N quickly to join into the fray as this whole ordeal is unfolding... That's indicative of a descent moisture source, and..then the nascent/potent llv cold air still trending belated ( even ) in these recent runs, means that is setting up a rather hefty front load potential ... I think Will mentioned that earlier - but then, if this curls back into a moderate exit cyclogenesis, that's where the "both" comes in... That's as is - could evolve more Miller B proper ( and it's > 50 % in the Euro already ) and still get a good dose of water input - It's bumdom territory when you get pedestrian mechanics with high PWAT because the return ends up more robust - lol

Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week? Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics -

Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week? Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics -

Will - I'm only using your post as a launcher ... Having seen the 00z to 06z GFS subtle albeit crucial trend to commit more to the coast (..ultimately 06z with a mid 980s low E of PWM!! ) I'm thinking this begins to coalesce in future guidance more E. May even offer a seasonal gap closer on any perceived snow deficits and/or 'jilting' - lol on the latter. But by that I mean it'll be N of 8" Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week? Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics - 'Not even in the same f'n ballpark,' as Sam Jackson once said. - now.. the 0z/6z operational GFS grudgingly conceding ending on the 6 z look over the lower Gulf Of Maine ( to me ..) these are all creating a melody to this song that evoke feeling for more commitment to to the Miller B - more likely 80th percentile of what the 00z operation Euro looks like/blended with it's EPS mean's more sensible contained members. ..I guess I just mean that at this range, 80 percent of what the Euro looks like is acceptable - it doesn't mean its final. This is setting incrementally toward a classic open -wave Miller-B. Whether that gets more purely so, backs off ... or is partial in either direction remains to be seen, but my feeling is to take the 00z Euro and add maybe 10% more proficient coastal commitment. That is based upon it's trends unfinished ( apparently ..). Being a fan of cross guidance support, over the last three consecutive GEF blend cycles, there has been a steady increase in individual members showing more commitment over the arc around Cape Cod .. It's insidious, because that subtlety is happening while the spread is still up near Buffalo, which casts almost an allusion as though A.I. of that model were trying to 'sneak' it in ... hahaha. Yesterday I thought this looked more WAA/isentropic ...now it appears quasi between those and a cyclogenic structure with Miller B ...I don't know if this finished at 4.5 days ... We are in a fast flow and still has deterministic headaches ...

The March ‘93 event didn’t headline this much i think there’s been an officiate cultural shift to be more liberal with this stuff