Typhoon Tip

If that holds the GGEM led

I understand the frustration and hand tossing but the 12z Euro looks 0 Like a 2011-2012 redux

Yeah... not ready to sign off on the GGEM's +PNAPy look with those deep 850 mb thermal layouts... LE plumes and Clipper snow threats from D5 to 10 like that.... Euro is diametrically opposed by D10

Course ... not sure if y'all s-breezed down there. At least out here in the 300 ' level beneath the Worcester Hills of Metro west and 495 ... we've challenged May for a week.

I don't want winter at all. It has nothing to do with this warm spell - which I believe despite all eye-rolling is a partial manifestation of global warming. But ...this exotic warmth has me thinking... Same exact delivery 100 years ago is around 70 ... not mid to upper 70s... it is impossible to prove, yet is true, and so goes the insidious nature of GW. The problem is "synergistic" is nature - which is a result/outcome that is "more than the sum of the individual parts" ... In modern climate/changing therein... the "synergy" moments are warmer than they are 100 years ago... then, they are gone. Their causality with them... poof. When the rest states may only be mere decimals apart. The system does not appear capable of producing them with regularity, because the "more" in the more than the sum of their parts, is an emergence - so... they are dismissed out of hand as flukes. Wrong - We've only gained 1 F since 1920 ( say...). Synergy means that heat waves may be 5 F warmer... and Indian Summers are more likely to reach exotic anomalies in scalar and temporal ranges. That's how it works... See, I am starting to believe that the old mantra of "you can't blame a heat wave on global warming" is actually an equivocation- a lie... It's a lie pushed across by for two root reasons: either immorally to evade having to admit to GW... OR, those that thought they were actually being scientifically rational .. are missing that synergy bombs are going off because of it. Because either root ignores, or fails to examine "synergistic behavior" ... as a specific threat emergence which is something that only exist ephemerally and circumstantially, then disappears once the forces contributing disperse... I don't think the synergies of 1920, are as likely to emerge what we are dealing with now.

That looks almost like a Nino river coming into the west coast out there in the GFS' recent operational runs. Makes TOtal sense in a Nina Amid the GFS' multi-day hydraulic mining event ... there is even a 968 mb bomb coming into N. Cali D11 or so ...which, isn't a testament to its likeliness to actually take place or anything...but, that damaging scenario is then followed up by another in the deeper field...

Indirectly related... ...you know, it's interesting to me. I've noticed that we seem to get these exotic warm departure events outside of the warmer typical climo months in our region of the world - we don't get the heat when the sun is up. Europe..over to the low els beneath the Urals and parts of Russia and down in Australia, they get theirs more in the warm season proper. I don't know if that is back-able in the data. It may just be an artifact of News/media exposure. But it seems that when press breaks headlines over these 110 F 'omg' doom heat domes... we never get those temperatures around here - what we get is 80 F in November. It may be statistically equivalent in terms of anomaly but ( all jokes aside...), we've got it better. Anyway, in simple terms it seems we don't get the uber high temps here in summer. We're always clipping them short for whatever reason - but a reason always manifests. Same latitude elsewhere... 109 F? no problem. I'm not saying one should "want" that temperature - haha...

Transition out of the over-performing Indian Summer and into more typical autumn by this weekend, that's my take. Heh... tendency to hand throwing and grousing ... Reasonably coherent pattern breakdown in the runs by week's end, tho - My own attempt at objective observation over the modeling, we enter what looks more like a seasonally oscillatory pattern featuring 'seasonal above' and 'seasonal below' temp as opposed to always so warm... Sunday MEX is 5 under at D6 ...that's a cold number for climate modulation/this range... Either way, time for fropas and gunk.

Pig this and that ... just call it a -PNA.

was that what that was ... huh. - I'm up here in Ayer and we had something wave thru. Thing is, there was no train going by at the time..and it sort of woke me up. My house jiggles when said trains go by, anyway The Nashoba valley sits in an ancient effluvial flood plain geography ..so I wonder if 4.2 may have been enough to be felt here some 90 mi away. But I also had some stuff on the kitchen floor that started out on the counter top - folded brown/grocery bags and I was scratching my head trying to figure out how they were scattered about. Interesting...

Two whole runs in a row the Euro/GGEM and GFS maintain cold on D8-9-10 ... not bad. Seems to be gaining a toe-hold in cred ... though the GEFs tele's are so-so... The ops could be over doing the breakdown... The GGEM looks odd - not likely to sustain an 8 contoured (hypsometric) jet from NE of HA all the way to NS in a zonal construct like that - ... uh, no. The Euro makes more sense ... but it doesn't mean it's going to verify in and of itself, either. Just that the flow should perturb - ... There is still some vague semblance of NE Pacific flow changes lurking out there. I may have been premature in pulling the plug the other day - ...yup. Or not.. I don't care. But I don't think that Novie ends ... 30 degrees above normal, one way or the other. ha

It's a classic "Indian Summer" by definition - but the N-S scale of the anomaly is unheralded I think ...

Wow... it's a uniquely warm. I mean... when arriving into a paradigm where all machine interpretive guidance is completely and utterly rendered meaningless. Odd-ball warmth may happen upon occasion for short stints ... but, this is going to be stretching believe-ability ... if that hasn't already occurred to civility. Actually 'civility' is zombied by other bs these days so they'll be blithe to it ...but that's a cynical rage for another debate... Anyway, the extent/ protracted aspect of days on end of it - oookay ...I recall some impressively warm temperatures in Nov and Dec's once in a while... but, ephemeral. They are typically short lived. It was 72 F one evening, Dec 2nd, 2003... and a sharp cold front heralded in winter by the end of the same night... That was prior to the impressive snow event over eastern zones just 3 or 4 days later ( digression..) Lots of those... xmas day 2014... I think it was near 70 in lagged CAA ... we did short sleeve family stroll in cargo shorts, not realizing that look was no longer ala mode - heh... but we get those warm intrusions just enough Oct-Dec/Jan. But this? Nah...something's entirely different here. 70 to 82 F spanning days ... and the lows are not trivially above normal. ORH being 59F for a low last night is not being handled by the MEX/MAV either...

Two different things ... -EPO vs the 'folding hypothesis' But they mimic one another... Folding is just high velocity flow over the Pac encountering the back-logging of the continent and that exaggerates the perennial N/A pattern response and makes the ridge in western Canada burgeon more frequently... The EPO is basically the whole region from the N-central Pac to Alaska and N BC.... And heights can and do rise into blocking in that region from other reasons... related to everything from PDO to west Pac TC recurvatures... to R-waves. Hard to say ...but the GEFs have an AO dive still after the 16 and the NAO too... and those aren't really related to 'folding hypothesis' if you will.. So with the AO going down, and a few members of both the EPS and GFS ensembles buckin for the strong MJO phase 8... - it's thin but not zero chance for that signal to return in earnest. we'll see... For the record? I don't see November going down 74 F as the mean high -

Course the original signal is fighting back... heh -

Just an observation ... but it seems the gradient weakened a little ( overall ..orbital perspective ) bit less than a week ago, and this ridge seemed to immediately balloon. Meanwhile, prior...we had a cold pattern and early tantalizing notions of winter and of course the significant realization/event came of that ...and while that was happening, heights between Florida and Bermuda ...never really deflated... I used to refer to the "Miami Rule" ... it was basically: if the heights over MIA were greater than 582 dm, and the balanced geostrophic winds were above 30 kts at 500 mb ...that means that S/W are entering a destructive interference pattern ... when ejecting E of 110 W/ along ~ mid latitudes. This strikes me as related... The snow event we experienced was along a narrow latitude - which is consistent with fast flow neggie interference ... stretching in the longitude. The event's specific morphology fit - Also, as soon as the flow 'relaxed' in a large eddy sense of it...the ridge immediately ...almost reflexively bounces back - ... Interesting... The autman has two distinct complexions ... and this also fits with the observation that there is a tendency for huge temperature variances - even relative to transition season typology - setting up along 45 N in the means... We are going into late summer vs early winter across 300 naut mi over the Continent, which is ...6 hours of advection at any given region near-by from excessively flipping between the two. But, what's intriguing is to see that without substantive cyclogenesis... Usually, big baroclinic variance results in deeper/larger system behavior. I think the speedy nature of the flow is inhibitory...leaving big gradients sort of 'unrealizing' in the means. Just a hypothesis -

Interesting ... we’re tickling 70 in this sounding and synoptic layout we’re doing low 80s on Sat ( haven’t seen the 12z Euro just based on previous)

seriously though ... is this possible - in 2011 ... my forsythias took off around 2nd week of November ...and I can't recall if flowers popped but those, and other shrubbery types too, did swell and split and half mutilated young leafs sort of half committed - the sun was week so I don't know what the bio-molecular response is between temperature vs sun angle/irradiance triggering... Anyway, it was sort of 'meme' ed as a second green up back then and others noted this around the landscape... after the early cold and snows of Halloween .... That I think was a more profoundly cold span of time ... This deal the other day ... seems it was like that day ...then this CAA windy jive that's already pulling out... Tomorrow still has the look of an impressive diurnal but I don't know how much decoupling tonight. Pretty striking warm frontal translation on the charts during the morning afternoon tomorrow so...

Eventually ... humanity will be forced to admit that all we have achieved in our current state of technologically -advantaged awareness ...is awareness - nothing else. 10, 50 ... 100, 300 years from how, historians will draw this up as an expose on dangers evinced to a mass of population that did not have proportional compensatory measures for dealing with the revelations of those perils. Seems that way...

I should be more clear ... I mean for November - but... I was being tongue in cheeky about the DJF being cold - who woulda thunk... heh.. But, about 2 weeks back there was a better -EPO/ La Nina folder over look to the pattern and that's all but completely vanished - interesting... Actually I was looking at the Euro, it almost seems it's mid month circulation overall is like a "west-based -EPO" ...which is drawing the trough digging trajector through the eastern Gulf of Alaska ... while ridging over the Alue chain - that's kind of weird... It's setting up a reloading Great Basin early winter out there... and unfortunately ... coupling/mass conservation requires a 1998-2000 SE ridge reloading at least excuse imaginable ... Maybe that's the correction key - I mean...if that all bumps E by ... half a R-wave length than we get split and cold bleeds along the 45 N further E.

Depends on what one means by 'torch' ha but, yeah ... superlatives may be understandable at least over this weekend - eesh. +20 F and more over climo ... I'll tell you, as an aside ... it interests me that France and Great Britain, ... over to the lower lands beneath the Urals and Australia ..they seem to put up their +20 exotic GW freakshow heata like ... IN their warm seasons... We seem stuck having to do it during winters - Anyway, I'm looking at the 00z GGEM and Euro, and their blend ...and it will be 81 F at typical warm achieving locales/sites on Saturday, Sunday ...and probably Monday too in those operational 00z cycles. Now..obviously, a typical locale/site isn't 1000 K high ORH/elevations... I mean BDL ... BED... ASH ... Why? Here's the thing ... the 12z/sun-up temperature at 850 mb on both those guidances for Saturday and Sunday is about 2 to 3 C cooler than the sun-down temperatures those succeeding late afternoons. That only happens if the boundary layer heights breaths...expands and exceeds the 850 mb sigma level...which means, the mixing depth 'got that high' So, what is the temperature at that level say...4 to 7 pm? It's 14 to 15C !!!!! The standard adiabat from 850 mb using those temperatures is about 28 C at the surface just eye-ballin' the blank skew-T diagram. And that's not taking into consideration the 2-meter. I'm actually willing to toss a major 2-meter slope correction owing to the sloped sun and well mixing ...actually makes the tree-top temperature more likely what we feel at the surface at this time of year... But, having the 850 mb temperature rise at max heating means you aren't going below that temperature either - ... The GFS is not as warm ... but appears to be below it's own ens mean so - heh.

Well ..I'm pulling the plug at this point. The telecon's are all abandoning that signal like a bat outta Pandemia at this point, and relying on 'sometimes these signals return' - heh, ... not lending confidence considering the 'synergistic' hemisphere - for lack of better word. I almost wonder if this redux' 2011-2012 after all - Oh, the counter argument ( of course ...) is ENSO this and that... and comparatively nill - but ... If ENSO matters less - that effects that juggling arithmetic.. I really have no compunctions about keeping my mind open to the notion that all La Nina this and El Nina that are almost irrelevant ... because of HC stuff having expanded so vastly ... may very well be engulfing and shutting down the trigger latitudes of the SST anomaly in the coupling .... That may be why/related to why ( anyway...) the MJO is collapsing on the left side - because it's there...but it's detection is getting lost trying to propagate deeper across the Pacific where it is lost inside the HC. It just all seems suspiciously related to me... So some hypothetical points there ...sure. But there isn't anything very La Nina looking about a Pac NW jet that's trying to careen off the Pacific S of the 55th parallel like that... That in fact looks more El Nino ish... and may - in essence - really just be a f'n coincidence either way... I said this over the summer half in sarcasm ...that the flow may 'look' La Nina at times, but just because the meandering happened to migrate the jet through a traditional La Nina construct but is really just an ephemerality that isn't indicative - Could just be a warm winter - deal with it. Because frankly, I don't see how the HC that is real and measured and fact ( ) can merely be overcome because we 'think' it's supposed to be cold in DJF... That's guiding seasonal outlooks and the HC stuff is also evading either attention or will to try and understand the changing Global paradigm - probably because of the implications of what they may mean.

I still wouldn't give up on a -EPO look evolving after the 15th of the month ...or hybrid therein. But sometimes these long lead deals slip into obscurity and then return.

The Euro would topple those records with that synoptic evolution... It's stowing warmth diurnally... each successive day that fails to clean out that look sets stage for the next day to get closer to maximizing that thickness potential. 13.5 C in mid February, three years ago sent temperatures to 83 F in interior eastern Mass... We'll be in early Feb sun/on the threshold of dimming into the 90 day nadir ... but I've seen in 73F at Bedford in the 2nd week of December in a look not too dismilar to this ... It'll be 82 on Saturday ... if not, likely Sunday *IF* the Euro parametric layout verifies ...and in fact, there's no cooling down on that run next Monday either.

looks like it's evolving the dreaded pin-prick eye