Typhoon Tip

Lol, I was just thinking about that - In the last 5 years, maybe 6 .. 7, we have observed some, pretty much arresting warm anomalies is the best way to put it. I piled out of my office one afternoon in mid February one of those years. I wanna side 2018 before the March collapse and snow reminded with cruelty. Earlier that afternoon, while I was pecking away at software code, my door was ajar to my office. I more at unconsciously became aware as their voices Doppler'ed up and down while passing by , " - so ridiculously warm outside I .." - unintelligible fade. I mean, I knew it was going to be so ...all things considering and who we are as nerds. But that - heh... no one has shown that week of extraordinary weather results with nearly the appreciation it really deserves, ever since, if you ask me. March arrived, and the "phew" psychology for the weather community seemed to quietly bury its significance - something has ... Anyway, I did not really honestly anticipate what would become of my sensible weather destiny that afternoon as I piled out of the office. It's one thing to intellectually process the model guidance and see it - "feeling" it on the skin, ...entirely a different spiritual significance. I froze, in awe, slowly turning my eyes back and forth begging a toe hold on reality, standing there mid way through a proper winter month, at 42 and change latitude N, in New England of all places... mid 80s That was an absolute first for me and still ... the idea of having a diurnal height ... 45 to 50 F above normal (mind us, 'normal' in the ~ ides of February is ...what 38 ) that's hard to wrap one's mind around intellectually or spiritually ... I don't know how to really scale that. I mean, what ? "Half-a hundred over climo" ...?? what does one say that captures that. As hard to do as it may be to finally accept that ever happen... and allow it to be quietly buried as just one of those things in weather-life... It happened in mid March the year before. And before that, we had heat in April the drove temperatures into the 90s - although that took place rather dramatically in rogue hot-month back in 1976 I believe it was... 4 days in the mid 90s. Dr. Colby and I geeked for a few minutes at the obs directory from that April and May that spring, and there really wasn't ever a recidivism of colder climes at any point... it was either 65 of mid 80s pretty much from April 10 to through June - don't recall exactly ...maybe there was a couple or few days worth where it slipped back to 45 but they were brief. See that's different though ( intuitively/ .. existentially) It is different because that was a stand alone spring ( overall ) looking at that previous 50 ... 100 years perhaps. Until 2009 ... that years, and since, we've had our share of blue bomb snow events in spring...but we have also registered some uncanny warm episodes that are outlandish. By the way, that 1976 sprig heat was provided by a moderate antecedent La Nina hemisphere - just sayn' Lol, I was just thinking about that - In the last 5 years, maybe 6 .. 7, we have observed some, pretty much arresting warm anomalies is the best way to put it. By the way, that 1976 sprig heat was provided by a moderate antecedent La Nina hemisphere - just sayn' 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5

I'm sure others have mentioned/ .. are onto this, but my turn of phrases - The operational 00Z GFS/ 06Z GFS blends illustrate an interesting emergence in the handling of next week. The Sunday (14th) thing ...it appears almost like it, and the 16th ...possibly beyond, the model is trying to morph into one protracted light event, with multiple nested intervals of enhancement to moderate. I think this velocity predicament ...driving along progression tendencies, which should in fact tend to 'stretch' fields along the vectors of the streamlines ... that lends support for flat scenario anyway. What we have is a fantastic baroclinic gradient that exists from the TV- off the MA ( ~ ), ...meanwhile, the ballast of the mid level momentum associated with the polar jet, is situated W-N of that surface to 800 mb frontal slope. the restoring wind into the jet ...is up that slope. that's the basic canvas from Sunday clear to latter Wednesday ... it's in all guidance... The Euro/EPS appears to be suppressing the boundary a bit more between the Sunday and Wednesday ...more coherently identifiable impulse/waves along that same axis, and this shuts it all down and probably even offers a sun shot through cirrus in a nagging cryo breeze inbetween ... I think that ows to that guidance having a tendency to curve all surfaces ...or hold on to them .. but the GFS is could be too flat. Hard to say - either could win, and the variances are not huge in a win - loss scenario enough to really impugn the other models performance. but, that variance is the difference between that lull being more described in the EPS/Euro .. where as the GFS camp may be slate gray skies with grits and freezing drizzle , in between two or three impulses of light to moderate snow/mix bursts. In summary the GFS seems is trying to do a weak Feb 1994 surface analog - a "fast flow long event" by virtue of having the boundary statically positioned idyllically for a steady-state WAA draw up the frontal slope, with local time-scale enhancements... Whereas the Euro wants more of a break in there. Either solution could win... 50/50 at this particular assessment point ( to me )

... but in folks' defense ... others overreact. they take mere observations as absolute and gospel ...no other option - the previous mode must not count or doesn't exist heretic worthy of lord of the flies retribution lol no, they're just observations. i mean, that -AO starting at -5 or -6 and ending up +1 in 5 f'ing days isn't something that should be ignored - now ...that may be over doing it? sure - but it shouldn't go unnoticed. plus, frankly this is a hemisphere that is presently spring loading ( pun intended! ) by an erstwhile suppressed (la nina+ HC)/2 influence... if released, booinnnng - these latter factors could even 'synergistically' make a warm spring get out of control ... "could" - just an observation. relax

This is a really good point actually - ...gotta be aware of the maintaining error in the tele's ...

not me

yup - thanks for re-iterating this siren - it's blaring to those of us without e-psychotropic lenses - you mentioned 'thaw' yesterday; i took that as an op/launch pad to inform the same thing. overnight that siren sounds a bit more like a distant wwii air-raid drill. we'll enjoy the next 10 days - but ... your guess is as good as mine where this wagon rolls afterward ...

"get over" what ? dude ... you imagine confrontation too frequently and then smolder - it's annoying more so than your stubbornness and frankly I don't give a flying f if you agree, don't or think who is right or wrong. And by the way... I am not wrong about those statement I made regarding the model performance/tendencies therein - nor the veracious application of them. We're done -

I'm not entirely sure you are getting my point frankly - it's not about 2-4 or 3-5 as a snow call - the point is, these have been normalizing coming in from mid range all season. "Highly doubt" is not a substantive logical counter point to that former fact, and the former fact ( unfortunately ...) is. Ya gotta give more to offset: - performance trend - fast velocity flow/progressivity not lending to bigger payloads I'm just trying to keep equal consideration for less - maybe call it devil's advocate, only in this case ... the devil is reality .. well, maybe objectivity

mm hm, but ...the lack of consideration for dimming trends is like what Scott was complaining about earlier - I see the same thing.. Lucid "counter extraordinary" posting content ... ignored or ridiculed. Like, it seems there are veracious reasons to assess even "3-5" ..or, even "2-4" may be more like it .. For some reason, that doesn't get the same accolades - lol ... sorry that's funny. true, but funny

I actually thought it was a tick less with QPF - Also - there's some morphology in the 500 mb S/W layout. As the 17th's S/W gunk is rising over the SE ridge wall/interfacing it's structure is stretched(ing) compared to the previous run. .. the 00z run was conserving more curved structure. See ... I just keep seeing the seasonal trend to diminish the strength of these features showing up in these on-going guidance behaviors - less than noticeably without bothering to do so. I dunno - where's this one going to end up. Plus, the Euro tends to correct flatter going from the outer toward inner middle range, too. Looking just beyond there's a sig L/W axis trying to set up around 100 W whilst the SE ridge is still pretty well anchored ... so given these destinies, the wave registry is shutting down on this 17th system - I think there will be something there ... I'm just quite unsure it will be all that significant. So, we have models over-assessing in that range as one thing. Then, synoptic limitations in there that offer doubt in their own rights - should we "choose" to look. Seems to me the objective thing here to suspect this ends up not as big. We'll see. Everything I said is true, but if this run happens to nail it - it doesn't make what I said not true. It just means the mitigations halted. I don't think these mitigations are going anywhere though. Seasonal model performance trend doesn't lend to them exactly nailing a robust solution on D6 ... And the fast flow /SE ridge shit? ha, seems is the new world order lol

12z GGEM looks like a low end warning HFD to Boston's metro west -

Hopefully you're kidding ..but gosh no - no, the use of those products is more symbolic. They are 'hints' that a warmer regime "might" be formulating and given time, it may bust through the dying AO proxy on the flow. Which I think the it's been heavily influencing above ~ 50 N much of the winter. It seems the blocky nature up N is in a weird incongruity wrt to the fast paced progressive flow sliding by underneath to the S. The hemisphere appears unusually strongly split between the Ferrel latitude circulation type ( roughtly above 50 N ...), vs the lower latitudes where the expanded HC is being compressed and we are seeing velocities/ progressive tendencies along the interface - not sure what your level of understanding/background is... but that's all more so than less, observably defining this winter to me. We don't typically see west limb -NAO blocking nodes with 140kt 500 mb jet streams blowing from Frisco to London underneath - that's unusual..

I do wonder though.. could that be sign of an end to this winter - just an early speculation here. Not all at once per se ..but that's the turner - This year smacks as not being like the last several, where there was onset NAOs that crippled Aprils and May for warmth. Granted, it's only entering mid Feb but usually - in my experience - when the Earth wants to do a region a different idea it starts hinting its coming. These are like those hints to me ( blw ), but they are hints I am intrigued by because we have ( La Nina spring climo + HC expansion ) and those two, together, are a bit of a constructive interference behind this spring's pattern. Whenever we get into that sort of "emergent" resulting stuff, the 'rogue' wave effect comes into play; we don't know if the synergistic result end up more than the sum of the individual players - by definition of course... Mapping those too effects over each other ...this could all end in a hurry, and it may not be a good spring for March snow. Or ..lol... watch, it'll be a +10 March with a single two day 30" bomb that has nothing to do with blocking - ... Kidding, but blocking or not, 'canon ball season'

Prolly not a bad early guess/correction based upon seasonal success/ ... returns. We've had a two "big ones" - tho that is subjective ... whatever ... otherwise, it's been a nickle-dime diet.

You're right about the confluence and attending +PP ( pressure pattern...) offering huge BL resistance ...such that the low can't .. blah blah blah ... we end up in that EPS sort of set up But I'm being ignored of an entirely different aspect, one that is empirical and not merely a sentiment or anecdotal. It's not the best news for storm enthusiasts so ... heh. Go wonder - everything is proving over-assessed, correcting weaker ... with greater frequency. Snow? OKAY, well ...if it weakens enough ... it won't do that either. I don't ?think? it will weaken that far... But, I lean toward a minoring event until such time as this gets continuity at < than 120 hours. so we'll see

That "phasing" you are detecting in some of these 'lesser' dependable guidance types are, in spirit, really honing the original 11th - 15th .. 17th period of risk I was trying to elucidate a while ago... The models are proving that was valid in my estimation - the total atmospheric space is just not 'capable' - for lack of better word - in maximizing it so we get those less than proficient variations like that weird positive tilted version by the GGEM. What we have is a favorable Canadian deep layer set up ... but the PNA --> PNAP aspect isn't ( apparently ...) cooperating. The GEFs back whence carried (...and in fact still do as of last night's EOFs) on with a concerted rise in the PNA ...so therein was justified speculation that we may see a better western ridge response. Nope f! just missed huh. - it's like a prodigal kid with all kinds of potential hangs out with the wrong crowd and disappoints the community. haha... Sometimes gifts and affluence are wasted.. But up N...there are blocking blips decaying and they tend to rotate S in the ongoing integral large synoptic circulation/climo, but the the coupled/ subtended ( latitude...) SPV fragments are held in stasis in wait... That's a favorable canvas whether it gets used in a subsume / .. drop in capture cirque Du Soleil scenario or not.. Usual, Pac wave squirts through the westerlies and on it's heel the rising PNA ( actually f'ing happens - christ ) and sends a +PNAP jolt across the continent - those breakdown said stasis and the whole structure collapses S, and our poor S / stream wave had no clue what was about to befall it - lol...

Don't ignore the fact that it's a "mere" 2 mb weaker - not that you are just sayn'

But what form does it take? ... this winter has carried about with an insidious under-the-radar propensity for ever diminishing returns.. I'd say perhaps less insidious now because it's pretty obvious at this point. If/when the GGEM brings it back ... it'll likely be some pallid representation of what it originally was in/when it was first detected in the model's deeper field extended range - I mentioned this a couple of times and am hoping - probably futilely .. - for folks to take it seriously. The models are consummately correcting just about everything passing through the middle range, morphing them into less mechanical presence ( 'normalizing' in statistics and physical vernacular) in the general ambience. It almost doesn't seem to matter what it is... I like the metaphor. Seeing the moon toeing its way over the eastern horizon on a clear evening, it's looming so large as to portend an impending planetary collision. Only to rise higher into the sky and as it comes into a realistic focus and it is far less imposing. The models seem to first detect events and features hugely at the edge of their 'frames of reference,' - perhaps as a seasonal bias that is endemic to this type of general hemispheric circulation's situational anomalies ... don't know, but it is definitely a repeating pattern of corrective behavior. This thing for the 17th is doing exactly the same thing... rinse repeat ... The GFS has flattened it like 9.8% per run, across the last 3 cycles ... It'll come back a couple of 9.8's ..but then enfeeble another series ...until in the end we arrive to an over-warned ordeal ... like going to a meet up with a Tindr profile that proves she had 'er junk Photoshopped - Before continuing ... this does not mean a dystopian cryo -bomb of deadly proportions is not going to happen... So, keep one's e-psychotropic-heroine needles sterilized... Should 1978 walk through the door with the advantages of modern CC PWAT to push the 50" contour out to Orange Massachusetts ... I don't want that to diminish the significance of the this snark.

mm. nor will the GFS for that matter ... on that date - I give the model credit though for sensing the weight/ .. inhibition of the BL cold in keeping the lower reflection of that thing well S where the baroclinic field is.. When I saw both the 12z and 18z I thought fo' sho' the 500 mb was gonna run a low up the St Lawrence SeaWay ...but, man - ever seen that much negative tilt that far west (BUF!) and a low 100 mi S of Cape Cod ?? It's like the DPVA out there only has an inverted trough and some piece of shit thundertorm vort turd generates a 999 mb low... The funny thing is, ..that curls up a pretty good dose of WAA/ pwat air from the deep south...so that whole things is as much isentropic lift as it may be trying to formulate a coastal low.. . But, if this flow tends to flatten a little and that neg tilt out there were to come farther E and start collocating it's exit/entrance jet mechanics over that hood of that coastal shit I'm telling you the sucker is drilling hole through the planet - Not impossible... just waiting for your boarding pass and seating assignment fulfillment disappearing over the western horizon

Good point - lol

Plus ...10 years ago I knew some who live(d) in that area down there and were warning to bar- the windows of your car - not just alarm the vehicle... heh. Crime and recidivism therein was running amok ...don't walk alone late at night either. is that still like that? But it's true about the real-estate greed tsunamis curling over the horizon from the east. It follows the Earthquake of demand...and as demographics expand and layouts took over places like Acton to Sudbury and Littleton ...the between 495 and 128 region during the late 1970s through 2000, the 'ring' over development moved west. Everyone along or east of that boundary ...goes from too much for housing to down right amoral economy - If you prorated every solid state material in a house on Arlington Heights... the nails are 1,000 bucks a pop ... kidding but point taken. I live in a small house I bought here in Ayer ....too many years ago. I never intended to live here this long. I thought I'd had saved and moved up salary-wise, ...met a nice women... all that. I'm still here ... eh hm, but, about 5 years ago, I started getting these texts if not phone calls from random inquiries. "High, we're real-estate developers interested in your area - is there any interest or are you considering a relocation and seeking a way out of your mortgage" - come to find, Ayer's housing market has appreciated some 35% in these 10 years... I mean, I have fixed this house up when I could afford. But man, even small-ish projects get into the Ben Franklyn''s pretty fast - if you gotta replace a window...and the frame is rotten, it's like 1200 boom. I replaced the back roof -was supposed to be a shingle replace, but the guy put his toot through it and "strongly" recommended new ply - so... it's smaller scaled roof...still... ended up being 4500... Then the foundation field stones had to be repointed ...and that ended up with a girder system... 7500... I did the floors to make girls like want to actually enter the home - it didn't work.. but, that ran 2200 ... I mean this shit adds up... wait what am I talking So anyway these outfits want to buy this property outright cash... but I'm in limbo between continuing to fix it and doing that and getting out of Ayer and selling it for more if I can. I don't have anything about this town that I hate, but this house is next to a main rail for both freight and commuter... I mean, it's right there out the window across the street. Can do without the coupling 100,000 tons of steal thunder and the bed rocking at 3am... Least I know I can get out of this mortgage probably at any time...and even make a small amount.

mmm.. gonna have to part company here ... haha. No thanks - In fact, I don't wanna keep any Greenland butt plug - f that! ... Besides, excluding my "super realistic" anachronistic desire to see winter end by March 15 and go 85 F ... It' proven over and over it's too much.

It's all fun... but, we still have to be vigil of the notion that as that range gets closer in time, models are consummately having to tone it down wrt to these bigger looks.

Not to get into details this far out ... but, like others have probably surmised since you posted this ... that's sort of a 2007 Dec wall event there... Ends as freezing rain for an hour to glaze as a protective shield over a foot of pow-pow. I remember that happened in Dec... I think 2010 ? too - we had a forecast for 4-6" snow with a entry temp around 20 F ...and some +PP still lurking up N ... I'm goin' ...ah, ooh -hmm... yeeeeeeah... We had about 10" of 15:1 and when I was driving to work in 1/4 vis down a barren 495 wondering what in the f my company was thinking haulin' us in to work, the car's dash therm was 14! So it goes to pingers, then to silver rain that just looked super cooled - haha. It crusted maybe .15" glaze... But I remember when I got home that evening, shoveling out the walk, the snow under the glazing cap was still powder. Weird - That's how you define a SWFE ... warm air loses ...that's the ballgame

there's a few on that list ...