Typhoon Tip

Lol ...The ICON is a 'Rorschach' test

It's the girl of my dreams standing before me with a subtle indentation of her va-goo-goods visible through her fashionable skin-tight yoga wear -

Lightning in this band The trouble is...it's the ICON - which I don't care to comment on it's individual performance? however, this isn't too far strayed from the Euro/UKMET and Para-G complexion of near or at flashing of the column from near wet bald z rain ( actually probably 36 or 37 is the magic flip number ...) to blue dusk job, but this thing's liable to head for 30 and under by 9 pm easy. This could be really bad for the evening commute 18z to 00z as the band probably pivots SE through 5 pm - but ... with Pandemic traffic demography is probably manageable. Anyway, that deck to 1300 ' temp collapse prooobably catches civility off guard as antecedence at this time of year ... I suspect it won't even occur to many to bother looking - it's not supposed to do this in the first f'n place

Lol ... right, agreed - But, you know ..I'm of the school that jesus, we're even talking about this ? It's worth of attention that we have this rationally happening regardless - it substantial in and of itself already -

The Euro is passing out of 'radio silence' on this run and it's likely it needs another cycle or two to lock on the signal - ..it may morph a bit more and is flux. I wouldn't take the details of this run verbatim at D5 ... but... anything after 00z run you'd be wise/safer to begin that consideration - The problem is, despite Kevin's protestations and vendetta to vilify the Euro ... it still outperforms other guidance < D4.5 over the longer termed statistical coverage -

uh I dunno I suspect we see this sort of thing in the D8-10 ranges out of the GGEM and Euro ..but they keep ending up correcting to more NW trajectory over the mid latitude continent as those days get more 5-7 ..and on and so on..

The operational - one might think - must be a southerly outlier by some ...

hah...wow... I love how the Euro has it going over 80 F on D10 in the greatest warm frontal intrusion since a laundry scene outta Shawshank Redemption

It did cross my mind a couple hours ago honestly haha But, I don't know/think this is much of an analog - I'll have to take a look at the NCEP library and maybe study the UKMET and Euro - ..seeing as these have now acted like 'Johnny come lately's showing up and bullying the show away from the Para G ... 'Hey, look what we think!' ... which was the first to hone this specisivity during a generally favorable 'super synoptic' era we've frankly had signaled since the end of September ( imho ..) .. But yeah, 2005 was a compact 45 unit v-max that was so extreme over a small area, the whole system ( also a fast mover...) really fit inside "meso-beta" scale - sort of a derecho sized cyclone with an excessive graphical zenith in power. It folded the troposphere ... it's dated enough now that it may be worth it to discuss - that was extreme stratospheric entrainment event, with a huge surplus of very dry lower stratospheric air sucked into the gravity well along the back side of the wind max, and when that mixed with the saturated backside of the CCB and really created a huge downwelling wedge of gravitationally accelerating atmospheric weight... See you later Cape Cod! boom... 110 mph wind gusts I think? But ... the sun set was visible. the whole thing was 6 hours out here in interior eastern Mass, and we actually saw the sun set, with 12- 15" of new snow and people wandering around looking at the sky dazed and confused...

Something like that... In this case, it's really the very powerful Q-G forcing nosing over the Bite region S of LI...and that UVM forcing triggers a redevelopment back SW along the baroclinic axis.

Sometimes this happens... If we're going to dump over the threshold into an exotic SD scenario ... usually the conventions fly out the door and the region just gets the shit kicked out of them. This "could be that" - ... having it got to lightning and thunderclap, blue-tinted dusk in 5-7" of parachutes, then...fast clearing by 9pm with starlight radiational crazy glue dymonds - I just friggin joked about that ..I think to "Hoth" ? ... now the Euro tries to do that exact joke ? I'm heading out for a lottery ticket... lord

OH my yes ... lol. But yeah... I mean, we're prior to Novie 1 and counting pennies at all is like celebrating a million bucks 30 years ago - enjoying the modern era anyone ? It's a HUGE relative win getting an inch ... let alone, there still some option on the table for more is only enabling avarice - just sayn'

And so it begins... ...the Euro crosses that critical temporal window where contrary to recent popular voice it tends to lay down the law ...and sees this, which is has been in play ( frankly ) for days - ... something's likely out of this. Sorry I think we just went to yellow - ... still can't get detailed but present take -away is > 50% for transitioning system into a colder profile -

get used to it .. .. maybe i mean , that sort of open screaming UVV explosion is a N-stream typology and I think one that could typify this winter. I could see us getting an assortment of clipper/M-b type upper MA/NE specials this year... just sayn'

...said the Woolly Mammoth lol 'it would suck to be encased in flash permafrost before even finishin' this cud'

just off the cuff observation on this chart ... probably? we wouldn't get that thing under in that geometry and speed max without generating thunder claps in a narrow band somewhere a click or two latitude N side of that kink ... That's a whopper frotogen look there...

yeah... re the phasing - I still see this as a fascinating exercise in the models attempting to do so through an unusually narrow N-S region of the hypsometric medium. It's a fast flow/progressive scenario with superb timing - which is crucially the handling that needs to be done the right way to get to these solutions... if the south outpaces the north just a little more it's ripped open ravioli - That UKMET solution is an NJ Model bomb technically ... as is the GGEM trying to move in that direction - ... NJ model lows tend to affect narrower regions but this one also has a smearing into NN because there's jet enhancing in the N stream ... lot happening there

thx!

yeah no ...recently posting demo's the consensus on this... Just personal experience says no and the data at 1,000 K high, pure Earth ORH ( meaning not weirdly polluted by favoring either way...) shows the noise of it - see Will's post.

Tam' ..it doesn't 'really' work anywhere - hahaha

heh... like we're saying, it looks noisy - there may be some super structure there ... check back in with us in 100 year's worth of substantiated data - but by then we won't exist because of Climate change so what's the point... lol

Aside from the fact ... and obvious, how does a geographical area tantamount to a pin prick on the fabric of space-time scale statistically guide the Universe - LI ??? really - it's meaninglessly tiny ... wtf - I mean just don't. Stirring or not, one just abases themself - But also, lucky for him ...the models don't have much snow on LI.. In fact, given the narrow corridor in which this whole thing mechanically plays out...it could snow 9" in S Vt. ...2" at Tolland, and 0 on LI and still be within a fair framework of being successfully forecast - so he's safe. I don't see a lot of "blue" QPF down there anyway .. a little, but that's white rain even in the Para G where that is.

Oh just leave it... it's funny -

Yeah...I don't believe so? But Will/others are at mastery of this/that I bet they've got some insights... I'm just basing it anecdotally and existential which of course carries a modicum of assurance risk - hahaha

Lol ... btw... I didn't write the title of this thread - it was done so on my behalf ...it's all good - but, for the record, I do not believe the October thing is really true - ... not until we have a bigger sample size. Fact of the matter is, the orbital perspective is both favorable and hostile to winter odds. Since 2000... we have been in an era - in general - that favors earlier cool snap... Packing pellet, virga -exploded CAA cumulous and/or outright snow supporting synoptic air masses have become far more commonplace than prior to then... Yet, in this time span, we have had both good winters and bad winters ... down-time of said Fall seasons - I think that is the take away? It's really noise - but ...hm, we are human we can remember 2011 probably more clearly do to the acute irony lol