Typhoon Tip

I get the feeling if anything happens in the next 2 weeks, no model or derivative, at present time, will be right - either wrong, or dumb f'n lucky. Even ... whatever it is that is driving the group-think for a better 2nd half of month - those signals, too, completely phantom. I don't think there's "really" anything there... These are all no track-back-able pieces of computer enhanced bullshit we've been looking at and tracking... Whether individual features or events, or the pattern layouts. I've never seen so many phantom mid/extended range runs -... and no, that's also considering standard error. I don't think it's a metric anyone keeps track of, or formulates for that matter, but I think it would be an interesting study to rank all negative model performance eras. Like the SD of error, ...then, all those particularly god-awful piece of shit times where the models are just spraying dung at canvas, say... the "Great -10 SD model performance era of January 2021" ... I have watched closely for five days and have watched one of two things, only: Either wave in flow vanished entirely... or is crimped and damaged FUBAR compared to whatever individual or consensus had thought when they first mapped 'em. It's like why run geo-physical computations at all - they're just guessing. Purely for determinism, it's pretty annoying ... The GEFs AO/NAO handling just oscillated literally ( not figuratively...) from -4 and -1.5 respectively, to 0, to now -2 and -2 respectively, in just three nights. The whole ballast of the membership mind us - ... That's a fantastic indictment on that systemic monitoring - wow Great ..I'm on the 8th edit of this post - sorry... But, I don't see how any of this last ... 5 f'n years for that matter, really lends confidence in anyone's thinking for a candied end of month. But, that means it could, if just going by equal probability for either -

Aside ...bothering a quick and dirty NAO check, here's the Euro 24-hour from 12z this morning. So tomorrow morning - Notice the lack of -NAO up in the actual NAO ? D'oh! It really more than merely seems that the models "miss-took" ( to keep it brief ...) a lack of real R-wave structure as a blocking regime. Perhaps there is some 'vestigial' sort of -NAOness to that mess up there...But, if you go back several days ( so 4 ...? ) and look at the model(s) et al for that this period of time this week, they clearly had intended a better discerned and structured blocking ridge in the height layout up there... That? up there?? that's not it - Either way, I don't think the NAO was handled - if this is even a -NAO... I almost wonder if it's really just the absence of patternization --> entropy in the field.

It'd be a pretty remarkable accomplishment to suffer a droughty January - as in a whole month in Winter - for suffering negative wave interference alone - Any scenario that is destructively wave -interfering should be just a rare as the same period that is constructively interfering ... so, sustaining either for that whole time - yes it can happen ... 2015 was 5 weeks of constructive interference. But, either at that length is still rare so... Consolation is that dds are we line something up at some point. Probably does little to appease the trembles of psychotropical weather chart withdrawals ... but, one should have fall back hobbies in the interim. Heh... Seriously though, I suspect we wanna sans this -NAO and I see that happening when the flow speeds up.. We may get into other headaches/return to those...when that happens, but nickle dime events moving from Dallas to Heathrow at ludicrous speed at least all but guarantees one does not have to wait long to get their next fix - Not speaking for the EPS but this whole time... for that last 2 weeks through today and modeled out to the edge of visible tele-cosmos, the PNA has never been more than +.33 SD, shown limited to no modulation ( meaning rise or fall, stable...), and is if anything falling out there. So, I think we can recall pretty clearly the Euro and other guidances really jacking the western heights over runs of the last week and ... it may be a feather in the GEFs cap that the means and individual members for that matter, never really condoned that vision. Just something I noticed.

Haha ... But how does that really make you feel tho - lol, just kiddin' Yeah, guess we agree - that little bug in the flow is just that ..."in the flow" - so yeah it's indicative of a flow that's in the way ... gagh... who cares... Whole pattern we are in was a faux pos and probably isn't worth our energy - I mean, that TV thing has a 500 mb closed surface at 552 dm - it's paltry and weak. Those charts due folks a disservice because they have all these threatening colors but ...that's sort of misleading

Anyway... that 00z GEF teleconnector was a complete reversal overnight last night... Right smack in the face of yesterday's seeming coalesced +PNA and that Euro weird fake SSW bullshit... No, patience wears thin when it gets harder and harder to ignore the strange repeating tendency to be dealt reverses at all scales... Glad my job is picking up these days - may not be around much this winter if these modeling performances continue... There's nothing to be learned or inspired by "miss"guidance

Trust me... it's not that 'piece of shit' - I think it worth it clear up the conceptualizing/ it's a bigger problem with the entire circulation components than that small entity That system in the TV isn't going to usurp that arm of polar jet that flows from eastern Canada SSE through NE .... If you remove that little object from the field, you still have that planetary wave/jet structure in the way....

Mm.. not to be contrarian but that little guy up there isn't the problem... That whole entire polar arm of jet arcing that it is embedded in is a vestigial "suppression" factor on the total synopsis - that thing doesn't really mean much in and of itself. That set up up there is related to the half-hearted daily presentation of the current -NAO that everyone insists(ed) and/or thinks we need to get big storms ... ooooh

Well I jumped in the middle that conversation so I don’t know what you guys were really talking about I just thought that was funny how Cohen seemed informing us that people have an IMBY attitude. No shit really Also I still have not seen any definitive evidence to prove that this is a downward or propagating warm anomaly ... Open to seeing that down motion evidence if provide I think this is a warm anomaly that upwelled from below ...up into the tropopause and is folding over in the euro products because that warm node has been there over the north east Siberian Alaskan sector all autumn long and there was never any over arcing high sigma level s-stratospheric warming thermal plume detected in the CDAS But ironically… and to Cohen’s point… It’s not gonna matter because that feature folding into the flow would probably cause a giant ridge explosion in the EPO and that’s going to set things akilter towards a cold storm pattern should that actually evolve that way. So who cares what’s the difference

Right right ... in other words his audience are IMBY pinheads ... what? He discovered the internet yesterday ?

Amazing but the JMA carries it too -

OH, ...okay - I see ...this does some help to reconcile matters.. That is technically probably a -PNA in the derivatives with higher heights ENE of Hawai'i out over the eastern Pac like that...but, the wave length is unusually long - fascinating. thanks for posting this - ... that 'splains it rather nicely. See, that ridgecrest to ridgecrest being coastal B.C. to transiently Greenland is a bit unusually broad.

Interesting ... sucks, but interesting - The GEFs looke that way-ish btw. It's kielbasa-worthy to point out but true nonetheless ...the PNA is a huge domain space. We probably can support a +PNAP look over the continent ...if ephemeral, during a -PNA over all. Doesn't sound very scientifically responsible but it doesn't feel like the PNA is going to do that - it may come to me why on the treadmill.

It's the 12th ... we'e been flagging that 8-12th period ... I thought there may be two events book-ending, but having one or the other become dominant is not unusual going deep blurry range inward. I was just noting that the GGEM and GFS both carry substantive trough through the E nearing the 12th+ but so it may be more of a 'what' over 'if' - ... if indeed the PNA is about to enter a robuster rise hey, does the EPS PNA avail to us anyone ? See, that flow emergence out there is going have better predictive skill than this nebular wave contention crap we just dealt with ... just sayn' Realize no one wants to hear that now but - it is what it is

NARCAN

I was joking with Ray the other night and mentioned how 2015 seemed to crop up out of nowhere - Maybe having the CDAS lie about the status for the thermal/pressure coordinates while the Euro Org has a 50 mb tsunamis are hugely inspiring forecast signals, huh -

That said ...definitely interested in the EPS ... The individual 12z GEFs members have mixed sentiments re the D7 ... but are much more colorfully ebullient about the D10 one... They have both tho

You know... just looking at the operational runs - forgetting the GEFs or EPS for the moment ... that's a huge Archembault signal there - I mean, we go from a nebular failed -NAO ( ... NAO may in itself be real just bear with me...), to a complete PNA forced regime change - or it is thought. Whatever the reason the PNAP part of the PNA is definitely ...very rapidly entering a coherent positive circulation type ...really fast... That's like 2.5 days of that sequence used to reorient the entire synopsis, so what happens ....? Boom TV-NE transit for the starry-eyed dreamers - We'll see if it has legs...

Now for reality checking ... eh hm - There's 8 days .... 8 ( in case your deaf ..heh) for that to fumble around get all kindsa fugged up - do you think the super-agency forces of fractals and reality will resist ?? LOL... obviously we all know this has no hope - but, I want to get the humor stream to fill to bankfull and spread out across the playground where rumor mills hangs out at the swing set ..so that this has any hope of being rescued when said agency in fact proves it cannot resist.

You know ...not to be a dink but, can we please ask that these people posting these SSW claims get more responsible about citing their sources AND that includes provisional examples - where allowable? People are getting information and jockeying for headline gaslighting and it's really getting annoying. But, my point is... we might have some idea wtf is going on with these source disparities/indicators therein.

Yeah...I did, Scott, mention that I was 'waiting in the wings' because I am not sure if other agencies have a different take on things - This does not match the CDAS no LOL... Like I said, just going with those CPC conventional channels. Thing is, ...something is f'ed up with American agencies lately - not to be political, but I'm wondering if there's an econ. thing with the present DC admin ... CDC suspended calculating teleconnectors entirely, because as I was told by personnel there ... when the GEFs recently included all those new members it invalidated the EOF layouts and there is no recursive funding to fix them - made to be broken. No plan as to when that gets fixed, either - jesus Anyway, if that's more valid okay - no argument. But I've never seen the CDAS be off kilter - but, we've never managed to elect a Stallinistic fascist to president either so ...times are changin'

The other nearly pointless model analysis effort because it's D8 to consider ... better hope the S/W kicker over Iowa is legit, because that total wave spacing between California and NS is too long - that sucker could easily end up in Buffalo if it were not for that thing pushing it right along. Again .. day 8 yeah I know -

Not to be crank, but, ... the Euro just dealt us a lie not 48 hours prior to this last "spectral snow storm" ... I'm sure we all know that tho lol

Perhaps ...I dunno - but the top image I provided does not contain an SSW... when every year that has one, looks like the 2006 example I provided - or a closer approximation. I have also seen those warm 5 and 10 mb nodes pop off and not down well as I've been monitoring this shit for decades. They are not provable/statistically significant modulators prior to the onset of -AO... Again, the AO this time predates even those 5 and 10 hPas this year - I guess I respectfully disagree - I don't think we've had an SSW that matches the behavior set of historical inference. I think there are some coincident behaviors going on - ... we'll see how the rest of the year goes. Also, the QBO is not in the typical phase for SSW ...it's not a deal breaker or nothin... but usually the QBO is in the easterly phase -

That's a nice two-stream subsume phased solution there... The starting heights are not overly deep - but that's been a part of this pattern and may be residual as modulator leading those mechanics.. That said, that appears be structurally quite proficient so, it may actually "core" that mess out once that gets more phased in and the total cyclogenetic feed-backs start lower heights from synoptic lift and [ lots of popsicle headache ...] leads to be deeper relative to the input streams.

I've been waiting in the wings on this topic - I don't see where an SSW of the ilk that matters to "forcing" on the AO has actually happened. Granted, the monitoring has suspended as it normally does flipping the new calendar year. Probably when they get back in office/recovered from PTOs around the holidays they'll update the last week's worth ... but prior to that, there was no SSW in the typical channels that are given to the free/public access: Those small yellow pockets up there in the 5 to 30 hPa sigma levels are not it ... those are normal thermal 'noise' that is typical at suspension and decay ... What one should be looking for is this ( left hand side): Someone out there in the e-din of the social media ...where it overlaps more convention social comms of the society - new's paper/tele/radio etc... - is bandying claims of SSW and it's beginning to bag as that source not really understanding what it is they are looking for ... Now, I have been 'waiting in the wings' because I am not entirely certain they may have some other monitoring method/access out there; it may be possible that the method used by the CPC just hasn't detecting it but more on that below ( 2nd bullet point ..), but it seem unlikely that would be the case. 1 .. SSW are prominent features that are discernable, like is seen above - please see this site and evaluated years past, and you'll start to sense that this is not happening(ed) this year to date. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ 2 .. They are coherently disruptive in a lag correlation that average 20 days. Why? Because the kind of thermal pulsation en masse that we are looking for in SSW phenomenon, downwells in the atmosphere as a (literally) downward moving mass of warm air layers ...You can see that in the above image... a year long from 2006. That year featured a very strong and clearly defined SSW, and you can see ( left ..) how the pulse of warmth moved downward as the x-coordinate ( time ..) along the bottom aged on. You can see also it was nodal in nature, with a warm arc having a centroid warm mass the appears approximately once a week...that's because the warm pulse rotates around the pV as it descends... while the pV over all is warming... Notice also the cold coupled that emerges over top - that is the complete circulation eddy of the SSW phenomenon... 3 .. None of that has happened this year according to CPC's 30 years of data to use as inference - 4 .. What has happened: There has been a peculiar semi permanent warm node at around the 50 and 100 hPas that has persisted over NE Siberian/Kamchatka/Alaskan regions ... I suspect - though am not certain ..only suspect - that whatever source(s) are hitting the SSW so hard are or have mistaken that as being an SSW... Regarding that a .. there are almost no SSW since monitoring began that have ignited in October or November... In fact, the earliest I think is early Dec. b .. in order for the propagation timing of the 20 days to be stablizing the pV and causing it to break down ( -AO ), it would have had to take place by early December to be forcing now. c .. the present -AO predates any consideration before even having this discussion. The AO can be motivated to fall from the normal Hemispheric tumult - in the off chance that warm anomaly is in fact being mistaken: those positive anomalies in the 100 hPa level we see up there did not arrive from top down - no they did not... They were instilled into that region prior to any normal SSW gestation that is the correlation model for forcing the -AO, during the mid to late autumn via other mechanisms.