Typhoon Tip

Yup! thanks - wonderfully illustrates the curvature (amplitude) bias I've been annoying people with for 4 years ...

Yeah ...I guess in fairness the other guidance' have a "dent" running along the pressure contouring out there S of Bermuda... Probably TPC will have a new yellow X around 55W/30N .. should this next cycle or two continue to carry said dent west.

I would hedge the earlier time tables on Saturday ... Whatever takes place, typically in progressive ass-end of testing range for 747 weather patterns try to blow whatever the models are indicating half way to England before the next cycle of the given model even starts processing -.. They never get the timing right and the systems always end up outpacing by at least a little -

ECMWF Inc. ...may need to start redesigning their 4-D variable secret recipe for the new era jet rage

CMC is new ... it's organizing the garbage out around 55W/25N into TC and moves it rather climo anachron west .... threatening a SSE approach to the EC

It's an interesting turn of phrase 'recency bias' I know you don't mean anything by it ...but 'bias' tends to imply an attitude against something, particularly in the parlance of an internet "water cooler" social media diversion - haha... but yeah ... I like to rely upon trend quite a bit. Trend awareness is equally fair as a word choice, and is actually a wise factor in any deterministic aspect of weather forecast - range and domain notwithstanding. Particularly, when a given trend can be rooted ...or at in the least suspected as being, causally linked to x-y-z ..etc. In this case? I think there are reasons - valid - to assess the trend of recent winters may repeat? And I mean to put the "?" on that.

You can actually see that in the 'art' of weather graphics when peering over the 500 mb v- ...The positive vorticities swaths begin to curve or bow such that the southern ends lag back SW... That's absorption happening. Here's an example of the resulting positive sloping... random interval off the 12z GFS to illustrate the point:

No arg from me... I said just yesterday or the day before whenever that was that this might be a good year for NJ Model lows ... Miller B's fits in with those. We just gotta make sure the ambient flow doesn't end up with too may hypsometric lines ... because that is synonymous with huge wind as a base-state. That's bad for S/W's because their local wind maxes get absorbed -

can you run that regression for prior to, then post ... 1990... say .... or 2000, separately ? granted the sample set size is not inspiring much confidence in the latter interval - I still want to see the result. you've got all instances in there ...judging by the shear number in the scatter plot ( eye-ballin' ) that's like all ENSO deviation demarcation events going back ... I dunno but a long ways? I don't think the ENSO states are "as effectual" in modulating the winter patterns since 2000 as they were prior to that for a bevy of reasons that I've opined ad nauseam and don't wanna get into at the moment... But, it may also be that there's just not enough scatter plot ballast since 1990/2000 in to be of much use either - hands cuffed by prediction vs having to wait on verification in that sense I suspect the warm ENSO events have more memory than the other way around, particularly prior to 2000. But, because the other way around is more likely the base state in having "normal" unimpeded trade wind sea-surface stressing, that tends to keep the NINO 3.4, 1 and 2 regions less than EL NINO ... The base canvas would thus 'erase' the modest NINA events by virtue of merely absorbing its signature into the ongoing circulation of the hemisphere in those scenarios... NINOs however, might be more observably lingering ... just a hunch but also a digression -

Yeah...I'm seeing this as error prone in both direction - making it difficult to parse out a "correction vector" if you will ... heh seriously, ..the Euro somewhat more than less subtly at time, carries on with a tendency to carve the flow back W too steeply at Ds 5 .. particularly D7 + ... It then ends during Ds 8-9-10 with either too much end-state meridional structure, or... has to pass through one that was too much so ...correcting back flat by 10 - either variation, I see the Euro do that all the f'n time. Yet, as you guys joked last week ( and I agree frankly ..) you go to any verification scoring database and it's like all accolades and polish ... Maybe it is just something that it does over the box of 120 W - 70W by 40 N ...so inbetween the seams of it's testing domain ??? Just an idea - Anyway, what the Euro is doing is dropping the hammer - perhaps - too mightily in keeping with that tendency. So, we end up with a historic warm spell in the OV and NE regions. There's some flirtation out there with a BD but frankly ... even though BDs are a fact of New England life and we should expect them ( regardless... ), that deep layer general circulation set really does not support a very convincing one... Otherwise, that's a recipe for the latest hottest October temper ever between Dayton OH to Boston somewheres... It had this on a run ... yesterday - I think it was the 12z... So, it's been fiddling with this... But again, I need to really see this inside of D5 to bite because the Euro tends to have to go through said correction two-step - not always but we'll see. Thing is, ... you get to 79 on D6 in that with that warm front ..dry warm fropa too... But the atmosphere then starts caching kinetic charge ... and nights start elevating launch pads...such that by D3 of that stretch... you could be in the mid f'um 80s! ... relative to that animation it has... That's obviously a half bubble off the plumb line to go out and forecast that at this range, but, that's relative to this model run. The 2-meter depictions on that cycle definitely shirk the potential - it would be warmer D6.5 out to the end of that particular run. Meanwhile...the GFS ... it's bias is the other direction.. I mean, perhaps literally too - not just figuratively. It has a velocity surplus that is being missed by everyone, because the flow everywhere is also ... in a velocity surplus. Really incredible as a separate bamboozling phenomenon... but I'm onto the damn thing. SO, it ends up stretching the longitude of wave features so dramatically... it either ablates warm penetrations, or... gets so extreme beyond D6 that it flips into the next wave cog and the pattern rolls into the next configuration entirely... And that is almost like what is happening here when straight up comparing the D9 Euro to the GFS from 00z ... That synoptic variance would have almost a 25 F sensible difference/consequence for the NE on that run. We'll prolly end up somewhere in between ... which is banal and uninspired boring weather -

Halloween nor oh I think you mean the "perfect storm" - which I refuse to capitalize because of the cartoon provinciality in calling it that ... ? That was also Sandy ... btw - Not that anyone asked or needs the lessen ... but all these fit into that ilk, really. There are no true reduxes in nature; analogs are what they are but are never 100% Anytime the large scale circulation evacs a TC out of the deeper SW Atl Basin tropics/subtropics, pulling it up to where it is vulnerable to ... and exceptionally rarely succeeds, merging vorticity/physical fields into either a severing mid and upper level cold core low ..or trough capture in general, you are essentially dealing with similar ( to varying degrees) area of event spectrum... I've been posting about this the last couple days ... the autumn is the time of the year that this is likely to happen if at all, and amid the likeliness ... most of the time it is just in the models. For one, hurricanes need to be present as an initial concern -duh.. But, particularly the mid to latter autumn, when we start to see trough incursions probing deeper in latitude over eastern N/A, do we pass through a touchy modeling period of time. Every year we see this .. Usually - well, used to be ... the GGEM was the more guilty. Back 15 years ago, that model couldn't resist! Every cycle between ~ Oct 10 and Nov 21 seemed to wrapped up a D12 category 3 hurricane inside a rampart of baroclinic moating .. It was like the physics of that model had a duality at times. But, you know... it was just taking a real phenomenon that can happen in nature, and assuming it was happening far more frequently than it ever does ( in the virtual realm of its performance ). Out in the real world...return rate's prooobably like I don't 1::70 years for snow involvement? Just spit ballin' .. I don't think we very frequently see full on fusion deals - certainly not 1804's ...my god. ( so I guess in that sense, we are due? ... unless Sandy counts.. ) But, anyway.. if the perfect cartoon ( it's almost like the era was still a bit green/bush-league to the notion of fusion phenomenon so that perfect jazz had more cache ) is the storm you're thinking of the capture of hurricane Grace into a cut-off low S of the Maritimes was October 28-30th of 1991 - otherwise, I don't believe I recall a 1993 nor'easter other than that other rogue event that also got the notorious 'storm of the century' earlier that March.

Euro heh. Wow

yeh meanwhile the 12z para GFS explains the concept of not buying into seasonal numerical instability in the models out at 300 hours - poof Something may be there - like I said...they models don't actually "make it up" ...

Man ... tomorrow and Thursday makes today's pricey shit-show almost worth it... If the NAM's profiled numerology is right - The FOUS has Logan supporting 77 for high temperature in JJAS ... not sure about October sun but either way...mild to warm. The wind angled off-shore, and only breezy for a change - not a this proving ground at an emission controls - I hate that. The only way to get 73 F to be chilly on Earth is here in this p.o.s. SNE climate curse. Anyway, ceiling RH < 30% both days? Talkin' euclase emerald skies bathing us in 70+ .. MOS is only 70 to 73 at some typicals but ... not sure if that's climate weighting ... the raw numbers support more ... whatever -

Yeah in his defense... some sort of training warm frontal wedge convection appears to be going on in his vicinity https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/world/un-natural-disasters-climate-intl-hnk/index.html

it's too much - sure... Glad you picked up on the sarcasm - tough to deliver that ... I do think the world is warming and I do fear thresholds and so forth but come on - look how the models took the planet of Venus and crash-landed it into the Pacific Basin ...it's like minus 10 SD La Nina which is outside the theoretical bounds of Terrain physics or something ahahaha

...Since you asked me and care so very deeply how my opinion affects you and all ... I think this could be an N-stream dominated winter, but one that wends its way to (climate signal + average cold)/2 = ... take a f'in guess how that parlays snow... it's like a N-stream dominate winter superimposed over a planetary hockey-stick (denying ...) climate modality that doesn't end well for winter enthusiasts ... oh, not for decades. Okay, as we know in climate science, it doesn't move on a predictable slope though. I'm starting to wonder if might cross over a threshold ... years before Will's take on things that a 'no winter scenario' here won't set into until beyond the visible universe of our life spans -- how? because we arrogantly ( as human tendency ) keep expecting a slower deal merely because our egos get in the way of the fact that just because we can't imagine horror unfolding tomorrow, that means it can't happen. But, threshold happen by breaking at stress points... and boom! as they say in Ebonics, 'we be f'ed' Not to be alarming or nothin' but Mad Max's setting was the year 2021 muah hahahaha. The U.N. isn't holding back today ... 'the earth will become an uninhabitable hell to millions' .. Somewhere between those two futures lurks the inevitability smearing of our Currier&Ives portrait of winters - ...maybe

The obvious ? that's a global warming depiction there ...when every single guidance source has an unbalanced warm/cool ratio ... that's a warming world - sorry.

My lawn actually greened up about three or four weeks ago when that last convection ( prior to this recent macroburst event ) came through... We were actually straw lawn beige ...then, we got an inch.5 in a two thunderstorms on the same day... and within 3 days there were new green blades coming up and since... it's green. It's never been really very reflective of a significant deficit here in the Nashoba Valley, but.. in fairness, I have had a convective season here. I was under something like 8 t-storm warnings and 2 tor-warnings ... No tors verified but we had big wind and lightning cut up rains on at least half those t-storm warnings. Granted, convection tends to bonanza locales while boning regions... agreed, so this area was probably lucky in that regard. The small stream just down the road that is very seasonal rain readily responsive was actually dry enough to walk without wetting foot other years when the region was only yellow in patches by the Monitoring folks. This year, it's still managed small amounts throughout -

it appears to be keying on general pan-wide systemic/numerical instabilities that exists through those lower latitudes of the SW Atlantic Basin - I was discussing similarly ..it's seems to be a recurrent Autumnal right of passage. But in those specifics, the timing is way off between it and the GFS, the latter which doesn't even have its entity focused until 300+ hours; contrasting, the CMC is days ahead with an inverted trough over the whole breadth of the expanse and some paltry commitment to a TC ... The take-away is a period of development potential over all of the western Caribbean, Gulf and adjacent to Florida as the primary concern for now.

I almost think it might be 'seasonal modeling' phenomenon, this kind of scenario of a home grown Caribbean TC getting evacuated into an evolving trough amplification. Long words for that happening every autumn. Going back years...I remember back in 2003, the 10 days before the Dec 5-7th snowstorm .. the GGEM of the day was pulling a fully recognized TC object across Cuba, and phasing over the mid Atlantic. That did not happen... It held onto the thinking for several cycles. The TC did materialize but it shredded out into the Atlantic remaining uninvolved - it always interested me that it saw the TC, and so saw the mid Atlantic troughing ...but failed to materialize their interaction. Years later, we had a Sandy ...which was the same thing, .. pulled out of the deeper tropics...across Cuba... only it actually happened. And in between those extremes it seems some half the years we can't get from late August until early December in the modeling without going through this film reel - Thing is, the models aren't there to like "make things up" .... I mean, it's not like some wizard behind the curtain going, 'imagine if this happened' - ...they are actually only processing things that possibly can happen. They are not physically impossible - in that sense. It's just that there are an innumerable other possibilities more likely to occur, when looking at exteded time ranges...and likely to emerge along the way, and then their realities supplant whatever it was originally modeled. So back to the first sentence... it seems this is built-in sort of risk of autumn, that troughs of early season ambition induce steering that pulls a home-grown on up. It is climatological to have an Octo/Novie season in those regions of the tropics...and, conceptually, early cool snaps take place. Duh, having them concurrent on a weather map is probably just roulettes -

Not that there's much value or use in criticizing that particular solution ...considering lead-time, to mention product profiling... etc.. but, that solution does seem to exceed the planetary quota of potential energy - jeez

That's kinda spooky/hilarious - we were just musing sort of sarcastically .. then the 06z Parallel GFS solution pops out - heh

November 2019'S NAO averaged negative by a click and a half SD ... and then in the first week of Dec, as the index began modulating positive toward a December destined to a modest +.25 to .5 SD, ...it was right in there most of us acquired pretty much 70 or 80 % of our yearly snow ballast. We seemed to double that in morning frosts through late March from that point forward. The rub on that was that said event was not 121" of snow - lol But, the early and deep polar index ( NAO ) last year was off-set by the AO by a whole month. Interestingly...according to CPC ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table ) the AO carved out a deep January, when the NAO was positive. That's interesting... Because those two domains share/over-lap a consider amount of their geographical area, so having the AO manage a -1.5 SD while NAO was positive in change, ... that's really stressing the odds there... The CDC's correlation table has the AO and NAO positively correlated by some .7 ...which for atmospheric phenomenon is quite indicative. Yet, they found a mid winter butt bang status like (-1.5 SD AO)( +.5 NAO) ? Just sort of cynically ... I'm inclined to think our misgivings about 2019-2020's winter as an entertainment gestalt might be related to that rareness... EDIT this is wrong - I miss aligned the columns - sorry ugh. They were better matched afterall ... = December 2019 was doomed after that first week, but the month salvaged by virtue of actually having the first week's snow/storminess take place. So what I am getting at is an aside point along the way of this discussion; since the year 2000 ( as a notably observable trend) with either snow, or...patterns conducive to snow ( that latter may actually open up the totals to a bigger number but is subjectively debatable popsicle headaches stuff ) has been been recurrent themes in autumns. I see it unfolding in the GEFs/ tele's ...and the operational GFS ... yet again. The last cycle of GFS has 516 DM thickness across the NP on October 18!!! That's just not normal...sorry... But, it may not happen? But the fact that the model keeps doing it...and, we have in fact almost all but grown accustomed to if not expecting our snow in October ( ludicrous by any imaginative standard prior to the year 2000) ...I think it's all connected. And it matters... because... the NAO blocking of November last year went on to NOT do shit for winter... It was not correlated to winter at all at least in that one shimmering example. Yet, the AO...which was positive in October and Nov aggregates, went demonstratively opposite. It's not just noisy...it's a damn din and polar indexes in autumn were excessively negatively correlated in the one example last year. My most recent thought on this winter is a n-streamer ...

Purely anecdotal ( ...though my convictions are "observationally" rooted - lol ..) but I don't see a useful correlation to the actual weather patterns is the thing... Now ... obviously 'blocking' is a distinction of patternization ... But, when time is introduced, nah. Not by frequency for either restoration and/or modulation tendencies when comparing Octobers to their ensuing DJF of any given year. It's noise in other words... 30 days of noise in October "might" contain orientations that equal or bear some resemblance to fractals embedded in the noise of 90s days. What happens to November in that - I mean... it's like ( to me ) arbitrary when we start doing that... may as well compare April 13th's 6 years later to October 12th's ... aha! Pointing out a rather obvious circumstantial concept: 30 days is long enough that a blip for a week, or even two weeks of October blocking(no blocking) may occur; but then 90 days is an even longer...thus, much more likely chance that either of those circumstances may be ephemerally observed - think about it this way ... a progressive pattern tendency may go through a 'relaxation' - well, that relaxation by virtue of needing to go the other way to actually achieve relaxation may mean 5 days of transient -EPO(-AO)-NAO in there...or even two week's worth of it...before the the next 40 days of progressive winter ruining piece of shitness sets in... What? do we say that was a correlation because say, there was a typhoon over the western Pacific back on October 10 early that autumn that happened to recurve ...building a height response over the Aleutian Basin --> brief NW flow downstream over western Canada ? It's too much of a stretch to suggest those disparate moving parts have any kind of direct or even indirect causal connection ... So in simple terms ... yeah - "weak" puts it maybe even too strongly if you ask me. I think this is a simple matter of 'conditioning' ... Circumstantially, if there is a 100+ winter snow year, the antecedent autumn sticks out in memory ... because as part of the human condition, we seek and create patterns to describe everything we see in nature. It's why we discovered ( or invented - jury's still out on that..) mathematical rules, and language to convey the mechanics. Add artistic expression to that... it's all creating patterns from the nebularity of reality... blah blah ...that's an infinitely deep well of philosophy ... But, on point, a big snow year happens rare enough, that the Octobers that preceded it offer an easy guess-vector. But unfortunately, the age -old statistical argument of that not being a substantial enough data density to offer a high confidence ... screams at us. Top 20 years of snow and cold and ... winter cinema in general... is 20 Octobers - wooooh! 20 Octobers out that last 300 million years since the break up of Pangea sent Europe and Africa sailing away to the east and created the distinction of eastern N/A... It doesn't automatically preclude the possible correlation useful, ... that is true. But the convention of using statistics, which "correlating" is ... And that requires that the entire course of discussion does not require anyone reading as much as I have typed over it just now... haha. But, they say there is a modest 'negative' ... okay - maybe that is just because there are only a handful of years where the signal was just planetary scale, thus large and immovable and lapsed longer than typical pattern gestation...into the ensuing DJF. .. I would almost suggest that aggregating Oct and Nov might have more statistical correlative just based on these weighting concepts -