Typhoon Tip

You know ...there may be a fascinating story-line evolving with this particular "winter" storm - ... Usually, it comes down to storm track as to whether x or a location gets it, and what ... This? We may nail down the track guidance surprisingly well ...and still have to now-cast our way through ( specifically ...) whether dynamics succeed in flipping over to snow, and that's a damn peculiar and uneasy metric to have to rely on the model accuracy for I'll tell ya - ... I mean, we've seen supposed paltry ( modeled ) systems go over the parachutes at 38... We've seen CCB heads "unjustly" stay cat paws while level 3 green rad slabs away midst 35 F I can't recall ..I think it was five years ago 6 years ago Feb 2014 ...but there was a coastal with the Euro had a nice CCB head at 33 F and it stayed rain - in fact I think it busted the model by doing so... Anyway, this may end up a unique metrical challenge for NWS Box if they have to decide on Adv/warn or nill based more solely on thermodynamic accuracy

blue bomb incarnate ....

so now the Euro's a fantastic model all 's and everything -

The CPC does show a concerted curve collapse toward week two, so the PNA's positive run may not be a permanent deal... The operational runs going back 6 or so cycles began burgeoning that eastern ridge thing ...but also semblances of keeping that progressive... It appears the oper. is running the amplified version and probably is an outlier considering the concerted members only offer an index fall to neutral if that - in fact, could be construed as modestly positive at that.

As far as snow ?? perhaps - but I wouldn't go so far as to call this a 'non event' for SNE - just talking 'storm' I'm not fully convinced the higher amped/more proficiently phased scenarios are that off-base. As usual...a compromise may be the path of least regret ( at this point in time ... which means negotiable - ), but even in a compromise...we're thrashing wind and inclemency...

for that matter ... the entire GFS run ..right out to D7 is one constant parade of stream/ destructive wave-spacing interference ... sort of ends up with moderate cold ...unrealized PNA otherwise.

Quick assessment ...it's purely phasing proficiency - GFS has less in that regard than every other guidance ... that I've seen - and that includes the non traditional bag guidance types...like the Brazilian - heh... Seriously though... I "think" ( less than certain ) that since the GFS seems to carry on with a speed/velocity issue most of the time, that model inherently favors destructive interference more so than the constructive side ? It's like it's "synergy" packaging is always blowing stream interaction asunder and ending up with inharmonics there in... In this case, you can see the SE Canadia N/stream is just simply evacuating E and leaving the S/stream cannon ball sitting in cafe' stood up, wondering what he done wrong to turn her desire away...

I think we may be seeing the initial stages of consensus gathering that probably takes this thing between the Sagamore Bridge and ACK ...up toward the outer Harbor... sumpin' like ghat - I bet it does slow once it's abeam of oh...PSM ... right around that latitude ... maybe not a stall but tends to do so for 6 or so hour. If there does result some additional feedbacks from wholescale dynamics that the models are not fully resolving - like Will intimated - it may go ahead and do so ... If/when, the CCB head probably pastes interior ... how much how little? But I like Will's assessment there ..that the dynamic squeezing out of the latent heat in the column due to intense lift probably brings parachutes ahead of guidance ...maybe compressing the flip line pretty damn tight too -

In Vt ? ! what are you ... 3 years old - LOL

This statement oughta lassou some enthusiasts... ...as far as I'm aware, the NAM has a NW bias - particularly beyond 36 hours ... - with western Atlantic/near-by coastal cyclogenesis scenarios. Assuming it's even right about the rapid deepening to and likely beneath 980ness of this thing going by Boston Light/Logan like that... a notion more up the Islands/arm of the Cape fits a plausible correction - Which concomitantly means that it's probably a flipping to a colder profile scenario in the interior eastern CT/NW RI, sooner - To say nothing of the fact that it is entirely f'ing ludicrous to spend this much time on any NAM solution much beyond 30 hours in the first place -

wouldn't be a bad solution for winter enthusiast in later innings *IF* that capture is more proficient, because that's probably a frame away from a slow down or even stall while that wind max curls under. The low does seem to ride across the jet axis ... and ends up on the left entrance/mid stream region of the mlv wind max.. That's what happens during capture scenarios. Here it's going through the motions but the movie ends at 84 hours so don't know what came next - lol ...Anyway, once lows get caught in that region of the trough, they tend to slow down as captures do - . Anyway, pretending for a moment that a slightly more proficient undercutting wind max does in fact take place, the whole column probably flashes to snow as that's typically when the rain snow line does that rapid collapse SE - right when that happens.

Yeah saw that - lol... - It's interesting that this is still so variant < 5 days. I mean ... our expectations should be reasonable - okay... but I don't think 84 to 96 before go time in the era of PITA-FLops and quantum processing, satellite electromagnetic thermal residence detection/fluid momentum transfer sampling .. .that it is really too much to ask for the 06z G F'n S not dumping any event at all. Wow on that... while the ECM is rippin Cat 2 Nor'easter into Worcester... Frankly - the GGEM of all runs seems like a blended path of least regret but - just when we bite... there's always another option magically emerging to screw that up too -

You forgot one other contention ... ... I had just set my first cup of coffee down and it was the first thing I happened to see lol ... but yeah, taken with a grain of salt/assault/sardonics... The stable deep heights is pretty amazing there - which is not a statement prediction .. it is what it is in the extended GFS overnight. As far as the NAO ...yeah, it's a west based -SD sure ...but I don't know/think that is really a suppression look there. The spacing is too broad... I'd almost contend that the actual nodal distance in the coupled SPV to ridge is fine, but the SPV is just too strong/deep. It would probably be difficult to engineer anything bigger than nickols when the mlv wind is too strong for S/W to differentiate -

starting to remind me of Feb 2015 ...

Hard to tell if that new NAM bombs but that does have the look of setting up a dynamic system. The western ~1/3 of that cyclonic envelope probably flips when the system RI’s

Actually the 18z NAVGEM collapses the column to dynamic blue .. I don’t think I’ve ever used that model but it is what it is ...

That 18z ICON was so abruptly deepened it appears to be modeling a concentric gravity wave around its western semi arc - ... I guess 20 mb in 9 hrs will fold the sky huh

jesus... just when we're ready to pull the trigger on tossing accolades at the GFS ...it immediately puts out a cycle that looks like they detonated an a-bomb on the mother board of the Cray stack Firstly, it's not going to success in evacuating that intense N/stream arced flow over Ontario just in convenient time to take that stupid thing that far NW like that... too much mass displacement - .. It's almost like they deliberate parameterized the GFS not to phase - ..it's progressive bias just kills it... I saw the NAM and thought well...there's the Euro nod ...then the GFS seems to purposefully do odd whole-scale things to avoid it lol

D9 ...same damn thing... After the predecessor system finishes its tormented winter failure and fills/erodes on out, the next S/W coming down is one of those flat wave hyper knifes ...probably has a 45 unit v-core on the open streamline facia, but there is zippo lower tropospheric +PP to situate frontal slopes and so forth so any cyclonic result ends up on the left entrance region of the wind max and cuts inland...

nother aspect about this Euro run, there is a negative pressure pattern across all of Ontario 24 hours before the model bomb tendency, rips from the Del Marva up the Hudson Valley. Lack of cold air hasn't exactly gone unnoticed by most during this period so - perhaps it's just not parlaying to a marginal "lucky" result this time. There's just no BL resistance in early December ( that's pretty funny anyway...). You could conceivably start out at +1 C ...and if your 850 mb center goes underneath... you'll do fair better that way. But this? It just sort of wraps the low in immediately because of there's no resistance -

Yeah ...thing is, we know the EPS and operational Euro tend to deviate from one-another less. It's not like the GEFs vs the GFS ...which can be Venus vs Mars at times... Seldom does the EPS and Euro part company as much so you wonder how much the EPS ever really does what its "supposed" to do, which is offering alternatives - maybe this kinda sorta not as much as the Euro full phase is the way to go..

Quite thoughts on this ... ( who am I kidding - ) ... The QBO is not in the ideal phase for SSWs... presently, *BUT* I was looking over this stuff this morning and here's the weird part - the QBO appears to be improperly modulating in the 30 mb level: 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95 10.80 That span of 20 to 22 months has exhibited some exotic variance for the QBO. Typically, it shows a very clad, dependable periodicity ...based upon its discovery back in the post Krakatoa era and the subsequent generations of monitoring; much has been inferred and or outright measured about its behavior. One crucial aspect of which is that it starts at high levels and penetrates downward over 24 ( ~ ) month period, reversing ...it terminates around the upper troposphere...and then phase switches negative ( East ) positive ( West ). You can see in that series above that the index ( 30 mb is roughly mid sigma depth along it's slosh journey ) is not behaving according to the last 120 year suggestion. This isn't the first time ... the only other time was recently in 2015 - Now, I don't know if this has any significance to the prospect of SSWs this year... but, that 120 years of observation and statistics does show that SSWs ( in general ) are less likely to occur in significant magnitude and/or downwelling necessary to modulate the AO/PV structurally... when they are in the westerly(positive) phase. Right now it is 10.80 through October... November numbers should be along shortly provided NOAA doesn't run out of funding for that too ... But it was also trending westerly since July ... It almost seems like the QBO periodicity might be breaking down ? ... it would be unprecedented for that 120 years since Krakatoa brought attention/enlightened as to its existence. It's probably got something to do with Ray's obsession with the HC - that'd be my calculated guess

Heh ...who knows if that's why but ... whatever the cause, I used to hedge beyond D5 but once crossing inside that range ...it was dependably 70 or 80% Euro with some spicing modulated in from other guidance. Now? I don't want to actually cook shit soup so I'm forced to change that m.o.

Yeah ...but does it still have the D10 though - mmm mmm... lol

It's true Will but ... 72 hours ...hmm... That's getting kind of shallow - usually it's around the temporal seam of D4.5 into 6 where we see it correct toward less N-S curvature appeal and so forth... This seems to be either exacting its bias at an usually short window, or... it's onto something ? I don't know - I'm starting to get rattled by "the king" at this point - even if it is right about this solution ( say - ) ...the last 4 cycles seems like it's put out 3.5 different ideas ...at some point a liar is just a liar. It's spraying solution and picking one - we already have guidance that does that with eclat - it's called the Crazy "Unkle" ... I mean is it guidance or "miss"guidance -