Typhoon Tip

Actually... we had an intense Nor' easter back in March...I want to say 2017, that was marginal but favored the buttbang verification - we were doubting ...or at least admittedly I was, that the GFS would be right about rain, because, it selling plain rain at 38F/31F while it was pouring 3" of QPF. It was like drawing us into the deception of the god-damn thing... I mean, you gotta figure it was completely corrupted with the wet-bulb/saturation and thus, temperature in the lower sounding and probably p-type therein... An insidiously easy correction was 33/33 with blue bomb, to 20" ... ... At least meet us half f'n way my god... Nothing.... Big rain drops at 38F/37.8F 99.99 % RH and yes...3" of QPF ... Oh, there may have been a cat paw or two... Now THAT is how ya tan a hide!

Mmm ...that's still too much time to maximize the buttsoring - It has to be one model out of the fray of optimism that is other black and white ... and having that one naysayer scoring the coup and raining out a 34.6 F CCB ... The other models are still snowing while that is happening too.. We call those "whaaaaa" storms - 6-12 hours of warning? Nah - that's giving the torture a way out. lol - I'm kidding here -

Ha... yeah, it would be a fitting irony if the robuster 2nd wave verified cold rain - ... everyone would be so deliciously happy -

In fairness... this could be overcompensating the other way ... perhaps too far ? Hard to say - probably need to now-cast. I do feel 'reasonably' confident that the paltry solutions of yesterday and prior ...were probably more so setback interruption compared to where this thing is destined. Keep in mind, 3" of cake at this time of year is a relative win - and the NAM is flat suggesting 6" over the western side of the CF... Chris ( Oceanwx ... is that his name? I can't recall... I thought once it was Eric but I don't f'gun know ) mentioned that the ensemble spread was pulling the percentage correction in favor of more .. when I read that I was pretty sold that we were dealing with this particular setup's "typical" mid range blackout - haha... or something analogous to it - thing is, we won't have to deal with "Zeta's" in this sort of solution over the ensuing winter ... And I think these sort of needle thread/speed stretched events may be common - Not saying we can't get a slow moving bomb...but any bomb is likely going to race orbital satellite velocities -

Okay... see, NAM inside of 36 hours and suddenly ( at least in so far as the FOUS grid goes...) it makes more sense both for differentiating the sigma levels out in time ( temp and QPF vs UVM), and butt-boning LGA at this time of year... BOS LGA 12075989840 12319 080319 55060201 12056967111 07606 000430 66070510 18042967841 06521 060423 53050000 18014977445 01612 040219 56060206 24027979338 08919 090225 44019798 24035979423 07516 060223 47020002 30034958917 00717 143618 35009595 30017917407 -1611 140115 37020097 I knew ..above all other reasons why ...that having LGA look snow-like in the previous FOUS grids ... meant the the system was in flux. Seeing LGA struggle to claim cat paws until that last interval ..that's a bit more consistent with a latitude/speed flow event... That hour 18 interval ... oh my. Regardless of any synoptic/interpretative graphic products and what not, using this old standard metric usually that is having isothermic parachuting going out around Waltham to Danvers, when it's 0 C just off the deck over Logan... That 04 ( 40 degree wind direction ) is square off the Harbor and is probably lighting up the Airport with marine contaminating llv warmth...But I suspect on the flop side of an inevitable Coastal-front in this sort of set up, there might be a startling burst of surprisingly heavy snow to those that have October climo in mind - which...is probably 92.43% of walking civility... Anyway, that's how these FOUS numbers layout ... but, there's conservative mutilations of these numbers that are almost insistent because of the calendar, understood. But, the Euro at 6 z and other higher res models...combining with the notion - I have confidence in ... - that the models are correcting for having ( probably ) evacuated too much moisture seaward, starving the 2nd wave's deep layer wave spacing, is now playing back into a more robust event.

oh god - ... don't bring gasoline to a match fight please... I know what you mean tho - it's wet urinal cake so a lower ratio may work with that particular product's arithmetic. I don't understand why a snow accumulation product can't do a sigma interval average based on ratios... It's seems like a simple series of interpretative algorithms to me.. This much snow growth deposition falling into x temperature --> 8::1 ... 10::1 ... 20::1 .... And if you have differential intervals and pesky warm(cool) layers, every time in the sounding the temperature variation occurs, calculate that interval... Function() exits doing one last calculation: total ration/N-intervals ... done. Probably ... 1,000 lines of Python. I could do it in f'n Oracle/DB syntax, and have a web-server XML read in the numbers for the graphics engine to go on and make its pretty maps. And you know...it might actually be useful -

Not to blow smoke at the assessment ... but, I did mention yesterday that the complex interaction between the diabatic thief in the night, Zeta ( kitchy ) may be playing havoc with the stream dynamics during mechanical phasing.... I think the whole Zeta thing ( frankly ) would have done this thing the better if the f'er just wasn't part of it... Or, fully sucked in...But this bi-pass thing I think was screwing up the models - owing also to the fact that the physics are probably stressed by the uber fast nature of the flow. It's a bit much - I don't know what point these models evolve technologically to handle exotic/or extreme situations but...it seems with 250 mb sigma level 200+ kt wind maxes trying to leave the planetary environment tangent to the curve ... pita-flop computing power may not be enough. We need infinite particular momentum determination at the plank scales - hahaha. No seriously, I think that the interaction between Zeta and the baroclinic wave space ..et al, is proving a challenge here - just a hunch. You can really see how Zeta is stretching the baroclinic field by the way it endures its PP and pulls along the warm front when looping the synoptic charts ... That's indicative of 'robbing' some diabatic aspect into the 2nd wave - which really is the planetary event through all this... not the 1st wave. *BUT* more specifically labling the error,... I think the models were not leaving enough H20 behind Zeta...and were processing ( perhaps ) too much evacuation of moisture from the column post Zeta's remnants leaving the MA... Now, ...perhaps they are seeing more left behind, and that crucially fuels the dynamics of the 2nd wave and viola! It's a nice tidy explanation...... Who's with me!!!

Hey do you actually live in Rockport ?

Whenever I read these sort of articles ... or even sooner, merely see topical at this point ... I cannot help but leap to the conclusion .. it's all academic really - the truth is... en masse humanity took the easy greedy road. yup - whether it was easier generations ago when the Industrial Revolution took place, or, immoral, ...it was some variation between either end that got us to this predicament of: ~ 1/2 of population aware of the doom, in a struggle against ... ~ 1/2 not aware/disrespectful of the science, continuing to be assholes, and thus accelerating said doom ~ some small remainder not in the ratio unguilty by disconnection from technological affairs and/or doing anything at all - but not enough - to stop it. Thermodynamics were never even scratched for what can be technologically evolved to manipulate those Natural laws of the Universe ...to benefit all, while not harm the ability for all to exist. Everything anyone has said after that fact is a deviation from that truth. If a booming force came down from the heavens and voiced that from this point forward, any other attempt to manipulate energy in or from the environment, other than what benefits both the individual and World, COMEBIND, will results in immediate loss of one testacle per self-concentric act - you'd be amazed how fast Humanity would halt all actions until such time as we remove greed and money and self satisfaction from any debate. Fact of the matter is, the slow moving 'invisible' specter of the the doom wave is enabling the denial of truth. Nothing else ... period. But, sometimes my realism gets a bit extreme - lol. It's true though ... It's possible to turn the lights on over humanity with 0 pollution - yes it is... It is not mathematically impossible to simplify the equation of existence to where success in doing so does/acts/achieves a 'symbiosis' with one's environment. We don't. ... we don't. Anything else, is a perversion based on immorality at one end, and short-sightedness do to traditionalism at the other... All of it - end of discussion. Even the seemingly virtuous act of saying, 'can we at last engage in a discussion' - is belaying and evasive. Because there is nothing else to discuss. This is incontrovertible - Sometimes there really is a right, and there is a wrong. There is no gray area in consuming .. torpedoing one's ability to survive - that's it. But Humanity's long storied, tragic history, proves that it takes death in throngs to get people to get along - ...this will be no different.

Looked to me like the GFS 06z was more robust than any of the last several cycle of that particular model I've seen, wrt QPF resurging across a broader expanse of the Capital District up to at least CNE and over the middle coastal Maine down to SNE with that 2nd wave. Tho it was more robust ..it also has less 'blue' painted on graphics relative to increasing fall-rates - which heavier should be more in a marginality than this... I'm not in the mood go comb obsessively through sigma levels to prove the model's just permuting itself too warm or not, but I have seen that in the past, frankly. Just knee jerk based on experience and having woken up on the wrong side of the bed ... I can cynically introduce that climate comes back to haunt sometimes. And a given event some how, some way... proves it was critically SD overdone. It's not like this thing is so deep and cold that it has room to f! around ... What if the 2nd wave does burgeon a new expanding shield but lower than 800' it's cold rain/paws with 'real' snow at 1100+ It wouldn't be the first time models were crucially off by a seemingly irrelevant .5 C

The Euro's over done in the D6.5 to 10 range ...but the gist of it is probably okay in principle. See that era as a -EPO loading..and tends to drop cold west first, with anomalously short R-wave undulation NE Pac into the settling kettle arc in the W/SW...Intermountain region. Spational not bad but the Euro tends too much curvature in that range so thinking along those lines but less dramatic is advisable. This is a good look for center - east mid latitude conus per the extrapolation .. eventually, as this look typically kicks off a -EPO mode passage, and then ...as the cold spreads the R-wave lengthens and then we time a mid Novie hostile baroclinic axis with wave potential out there - Nevertheless ...there will like be some fairly mild days in Nov 4 to 9 range ... But as I mentioned in the other thread, that's not guaranteed if surface high pressure tends to move E of Ontario and not settling SE of CC

Yeah ... uh, "Spanks45" ? ...interesting name ..anyway, with all the action in the foreground, that looks like the season's first big LE event ... It's short lived... no longer that 24 due to a redic fast pattern turning over real fast, but down wind of there, the western slopes of the Green and even White mountains may get upslope sintered in this GFS/Euro blend out there D5

well there it is ... 2pm update delivered at 3 pm but ... 105 mph/ 973 mb given that it's outer e-wall is still ~ 1.5 hours from sawing inland ...it may yet knick the prized 115 ... The rate of organizational improvement seems to suggest it probably starts peeling back beach front siding and punching through hotel windows right as that 115's happening - Hahaha... can you 'magine if that was the tone that these NHC advisories were really written in - ...that'd be awesome. "WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ... HOUSEHOLD PETS KITING THROUGH THE AIR, BUT RECENT RECON REPORTS A SUDDEN PRESSURE DROP ... AWAITING WIND RESPONSE CONFIRMATION NOTABLE AS RADAR DETECTED FIDO's"

Ha ... nah, that was 18z, two days ago... That sucker was heading for history -

Looks to me like Zeta is strengthening AS it is moving ashore later this afternoon/evening and that is traditionally ... not good when storms exhibit this behavior. They don't like having their hooch gets taken away and take it out on the land by 'scouring' in search of it - heh... seriously though, the eye is better defined nearing the coast. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a nearer update that has this to 105 or 110 even -

it's interesting that despite the stronger Zeta ... the NAM and Euro are actually maintaining a hybrid cyclone phase underneath LI, while lopping 'nough QPF over a cold wedge that ... probably is benefitting from a faster llv cut in by virtue of their having the superior grid/resolution - interesting.

EE rule returns in triumphant glory! lol -

God ...just once... all models bail... mood guided by wrenches and hammers and drill bits to the brink ... then have it snow anyway - please do that to people in purpose .. I beg

That's what I'm trying to intimate ... the first wave is really an 'increasingly more conserved' Zeta vestige ... but at this point, the GGEM looks like TD moving S of LI in the process of melding into the warm frontal arm... But I think what that conservation of Zeta is doing is sort of analogous to 'robbing' the wave spaces from their ability to phase better. This may simply have been a Zeta story all along and the models were underdone with that assessment and ( maybe had to correct by buttboning the other signal... ) lol... kidding a little there. There's still time. Those NAM FOUS numbers ...if that plays out, it's snows though - maybe they won't. Who knows

I've been going to Suny ALB's atmos dept: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61 ...I don't know if there's a direct NWS/NOAA link ...like here: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/mos_getbull but, the former one provides our trifecta/geographic region - ... There are many sectors though and these grids ( as you know ) are presenting for many regions around the country ... try poking around in the MOS one at NWS - it may be lurking in there, but ...I haven't bothered to probe. I don't really care about the FOUS for Albequir. NM ...ha

I think two aspects are observably in play - from my seat ... 1 .. Zeta is stronger ... A stronger entity perhaps 'resists' ( for lack of better word only on the fly here ..) absorption, because it really just comes down to it having too much momentum in its own tortionality and so forth.. blah blah popsicle headache. But, this resistance is helping keep it more cohesively separate - helping to maintain it's individual integrity in the flow 2 .. the flow ( unfortunately...) is being exposed as 'too fast,' and a stronger Zeta is caught in it by a day .. day and half from now. As we get in tighter to the complex and fragile timing of stream interactions... this part is the real math -headache. If Zeta were weaker it "could be" absorbed more readily by the model capacity to do so. Its diabatic infusion would have probably been useful to the total physical interplay/phasing, because it would have helped the z-coordinate deepening which slows/ parks against the flow that critical amount that allows better phasing to happen. Without out something to slow ... stream bypass becomes more likely ... It could still do all that, and the models could just be a little lacking their ability here - the Euro I think may be useful... ... not 'you' per se in saying this ...but what folks need to realize is that phasing has a kind of temporal window - it's really no different than harmonizing waves -- referred to as constructive interference. If the streams outpace each other, the interference is destructive ... and it sounds like finger nails on chalk-board, not Tchaikovski so...instead of synergistically structuring the outcome ..the opposite happens. Not to harp but ... fast flow is crippling this ... it's been crippling more over recent winters too - .. but, folks probably getting tired of me bloviating why so I won't haha

Fwiw - I've been a fan/user of the NAM FOUS ...since back whence it was once the 'ETA' product in the early to mid 1990s, and I can tell you that these grid numbers are snowing a pretty good clip ( most likely ...), certainly .. relative to climo of premie 'Ween events those adjectives are true. Particularly visualized west of the city of Boston out over that first set of hills ( Arlington Hgts ...) out toward I-95... western side of Waltham/Newton ..up toward Burlington, down a ways ...but not sure when SE contamination plays in ... But those areas or probably over to moderate parachutes in this profile BOS LGA 36031989751 08119 090417 54070100 36073989822 12609 020425 64070410 42068967727 11922 070329 52049999 42026955927 02616 040321 57060107 48021959143 05718 100224 42009798 48024979244 -9214 090220 45020099 54015614124 -0519 140115 36019595 54010795313 -2212 153611 40040097 60000412219 00618 203508 32039695 60000765509 00719 213405 37060096 Even down near NYC is flipping/ed to snow at 48 hours... certainly fatties mixed in. But, the 'fanship' kicks in for me < 36 hours ...so - given to 'subtle' bumps N and Chris' mentioning that the spread was oriented back this way, I'm 'subtly' impressed by these sigma values centered on D 2

yeah...the more I look at this... I think the models - all of them.. have introduced a conflict in the handling between Zeta and the synoptic mechanics approaching in the fast flow. They are conserving Zeta more so cohesively separate and squirting it out ... It may be contrasting to intuition but .. I almost wonder if Zeta got absorbed it's diabatic influx might exotically deepen this thing, and that would cause height falls --> favors shorter duration phase proficiency in the steam interaction "machinery" With Zeta being less integrated ... it's sort of stealing the latent heat injection into a system that is flat and needs to have its inflow jets to get that height fall/feed-back process going in time. Zeta may be robbing some of that - .almost akin to an MCS rolling underneath and robbing a region from tornadoes as a weak metaphor -

You know ...I am not sure if this matters but it seems like it should. This Zeta may even be a Cat 3 by landfall. Even if not... it may be through the upper end of Cat 2 and be quite the potent physical add-in to the music of the chorus here - I'm not sure if the models are handling that right. The GGEM ... for example, smears out a strong tropical storm looking feature ...and it's pressure depth is way shallow compared to what we already have, and this thing has stilll some development potential while already being stronger... It synoptic evolution in that smearing is to just sort of lose it along a warm frontal wave S of LI but ...what if this thing has to be integrating more physical exertion in reality - how does that change that... I see this kind uncertainty across the guidance bevy frankly - interesting...