Typhoon Tip

noticed others commenting on the sensible weather as of late .... I can only add, I don't recall a January with wind this still. Specifically that one particular metric... In the last 10 days, I've seen two days where flags wobbled...as in, zephyrs all but unnoticeable ..otherwise, it's been almost calm the whole time. ( there may be an afternoon that I am forgetting but for all intents and purposes - ) That's getting extraordinary ... We are approaching the perennial windiest time of the year for Logon ...can't imagine that's not the case everywhere else around here just the same.. Here we are again, ...no wind. And frankly, the temperatures, general appeal, other than a couple few cloud afternoons as others have noted... these other aspects are remarkable fixed. We have also seen an exceptionally long duration of fair to sun sky. Although that's a different metric than wind - just sayn' pretty remarkably quiescent

So I suppose there is some argument for that trending south and East the NAO won’t typically allow a lakes motion up into Canada.

Mm... I was too impressed frankly ...seeing as my opinion matters lol no, but that flow is too fast and the waves are interfering with one-another too much to be very confident that much will evolve of that parade of loudness and not actually impact -

I've noticed that too... It's been everywhere ( time and spaces, and all models tho - all year... I am not sure if this was doing so last year ...year(s) before and so on...but, the mid and particular extended range features have tended to significantly attenuate nearing the 96 and 120 hour range. Some siggy bombs have ended up clippery sliders too, when once deeply wound - it's been pretty pronounced. I don't know..I've mused before that it's like the full foreboding moon coming over the horizon a very clear evening... IT looks absolutely ginormous - It's like a metaphor... The models seem to magnify these things, and in more practical terms, there's something about the physical handling in the models that is over assessing matters out in time.

Okay ... cool - so... the SSW does appear to actually be propagating. I did post a graphic and that concern late yesterday. The impetus being, if the propagation does not take place there is no physical exertion in the pV domain and so that as a forcing mechanism for pV break-down and ...blah blah blocking is likely being achieved via other pathways ( such as standard planetary wave dispersion ) at high latitudes. That's when WAA ends up at high latitudes after robust mid level cyclonic graveyard migrations ..etc... Anyway, this morning, there is a new node materializing on the graphs at GDAS, down toward the 50-70 sigma levels...; that tells us that the main (previous) emerged 5-10 sigma lobe of heat is in fact, moving down in the atmosphere ... That needs another weak to entangle in the tropopausal depths, however... which is about right on time for the total 20 day average lag correlation. Meanwhile, ...the funny aspect is the AO has been greatly depressed lower than 0 SD for a month already anyway. And no...it is not related to the presently tracking SSW/propagation - because if one knows how to read ...we need to succeed said lag ... It also lends to the discussion aspects Will and Scott and I were having regarding the futility versus usefulness of that factorization on the hemisphere ... if/when circumstances are interfering with it in a constructive version destructive sense... It's not a silver bullet into the heard of the winter vampire that saves children of winter doe-eyeds dreams and fairies... no. It's conditionally accessible as a help. If the ongoing AO is neggie already ( like now...) it's questionable if/when it's modulation is either detectable...or if so, if it means much of physical difference anyway. Other aspects ... like, it could be arriving in a +AO winter...and force the index neutral or negative, and the cold could spill out of Eurasia ... It's all around an aggrandized factor that needs to wane in popularity just like the NAO from the 1990s over-assumption of utility too -... wah wah wahhhhh

Wasn't that the giant Euro bust of all timers ?? I think that was the one when the Euro came in at like 60 or 72 hours out, ...well inside it's theoretical 'unbeatable' performance windoe of less than 4 days too ..., and put up 30" inside of a 72 mph CCB low-level cryo jet! Sending NWS scrambling to get blizzard warnings up for an event that by virtue of population/demographics would mean probably a NESDIS ( using K.U. for instance ) of 6~! ... Phew...just got it in with barely enough time to get the homeless into shelters and the Nat Guard on stand-by and just then, the 24 hour models were snow showers - ... Gotta be a burp run, right? Sort of... the 11" was made to be flurries in the specter of all that dramatic shit show - Thing that's interesting about that is the bust was prooobably - I'm wondering ... - worse for the weather 'com-con' community and the forecasters then it was for the public in an interesting psycho-babble twist. I wonder that because 11" toted along sideways in 55 mph gusts at 15 F is ferocious enough and to the J.Q. Public, which is the real 99th percentile bio-mass ( lol ) ...that may have been plenty severe enough to have warranted said drama... or at least closed the interpretive gap on a busting vs realization toward the latter..

Perhaps vaguely equivalent to SE Canada .. U.S. GL/NE region’s “2015”

It’s in their climo correct but this appears to exceed that by a considerable magnitude ...

Seems like each of the last 4 or 5 winters into early springs have featured at least one episode exceeding +20 F daily anomalies or even more exotic ... lasting more than a single day when they occurred too. regardless of whether a given season return to normal or snowed thereafter or not. And I’m not talking typical misty southerly T and DP 65ers. These were dry sub-boreal continental heat conveyor patterns ... Recalling one Feb and more than one March in said span over 80! ... I was stunned when it was 88 on March 30 in ‘98 ... now that seems prophetic nonethewiser

Pure subjectivity .... it’s only been a month. You know I’m not saying it wouldn’t aggravate people I’m just saying it’s made interminably worse by setting peoples expectations I don’t think that’s really common sense deniable it may yet snow before the 20 th tho

Well .., I dunno nothin about juju or destiny or weird little angels sitting on our shoulders ... But I am fully aware of pricktease sour grapes. Lol

I get the feeling that this would’ve been much better off as winter romance if it never snowed that one storm in December… It seems to be when you get that one event early ... it seems that the early snow absolutely screws everybody spirits if it doesn’t do anything afterwards - far worse than if folks had just never been exposed to it at all.

Couldn’t get past your first sentence in your previous you said, ”The crazy thing about this pattern is that everyone in the lower 48 is getting screwed” of course it matters to the people that like snow in the south it’s snowing down there - hello? That denies your conclusion. Lol. Wow

+WPO will do that for them...

I don't see evidence that this is propagating - the lower portion tries to slope to the right but there should have been a warm node again in the 50 sigma level and that's not it what you see there... no propagation... SSW and AO are disconnected.

It just snowed in the south ...what -

The operational Euro has a -EPO construct out there ending on D10 ... with ridging into the Alaskan sector and trough calving down stream into the Great Basin ... ...yet, no cold air in western Canada appreciable below seasonal norms..in fact, it may not even be at seasonal norms... Gutless -EPO ...

It'll be wrong.. can't construct -NAO blocking ridges when there's too much wind velocity feeding in to the domain at mid troposphere -

Right ... a -7 standard deviation airmass floatin a storm through it tends to normalize matters

It’s why our big heat has to come on a WNW or even NW flow as counter intuitive as that may seem. it’s also why some 2/3rds to 3/4 of all NE ‘severe’ days will feature line gapping or splitting

Oh I’ve been talking about that geographic truism for years yeah I have even described that line as LGA to PWM I think of SNE as a continental-marine hybrid climate. Ocean modulates too much too often not to be considered as something like that.

Quick hitting NJ Model low/ .. sig event implied by 192+ on the bestest model there is, the J M A A A A

I'm expecting that to do that... chapter one in a new story. It seems the models and forecaster efforts are struggling to parse out what is what from the 12th to the 17th ...that is the regime change modulation in that range, and it may come in a couple of trough progression amid a flow that is vastly speeding up ... (that being near the front side). In the wake we establishing a more gradient saturation from midriff Canada to the Gulf o/ Mex ... What we see happening after the 15th is there is a subtle flow bifurcation/ .. not quite a full-on split in the conventional sense, ...but there is a vestigial tendency for the PNA to neutralize ..that wants to pull the at first Rockies ridge orientation closer to the WC proper of N/A ...that tends to calve the flow east of the Rockies... the 18th event the GEFs are fiddling with ( and some of those are bombs!) ...is actually interesting because that is Pac wave that ends up in that quasi S/ branch... and east of MV that may yet still be a subsume favorable environment because there's semblances of retrograde tendency still going on at 60 N... so the hemispheric counter-clockwise/ ..relative rotation is still there. This time it may work out better because what screwed the pooch over the last 10 days was that no one or the models really pegged a nebular pattern of lax gradient in a -NAO pulse. That's a weird form of that... Best to just not include this recent week in any trend factorization - imho...

Some sort of break from ennui/quiescence, whether 'hellacious' or just in general, yup. Pretty substantial regime changes typically do spawn. You can see a 'velocity flashing' passes through the entire medium from west to east over the period going from D4-5 ... The western ridge, eastern trough scaffolding is well underway during ... just sort of spontaneously emerges, and at the other side... that is beyond the temporal boundary of the pattern switch - I'm wondering if the non-linearity of making that progression is 'masking' or hiding any 'corrective' event of that nature out there... and that event could be this signal for the 18th. It's been there in the GEFs for days ... The 00z GFS missed a mega subsume bomb because it bullied in a Pac wave at 180 to 192 hours...Otherwise, the ridge in the west would have have completed the R-wave mechanics and driven that SPV S to meet up with that S/Stream ... and well - boom. It's a volatile time between D6 and 11 or 12 ...so I don't buy it that we should "punt" through D10... It depends what people are punting I suppose.

Nope