Typhoon Tip

What a pos Teddy looks like this hour tho - eesh It's either formulated a 100 mi eye ...or, it's gulp in shit ton of dry air now rattling around inside and gutting out... World's biggest turd in the world's biggest punch bowl during the world's worst most active season on record - weird season

That's such a good way to put that, bold. You know, another Met friend ..completely unaffiliated from this site, he and I have commiserated how we both formulated that exact same impression - and it started that season, too. Funny. Like, it's universal impression. I almost venture that as astounding as any interval has been since? nothing had that ..Oooh so close but no cigar coveted immovable 50" er miss vibe about it. There seems to be almost like a 36" @ < 500' elevation, and 45" less that 1200' elevation hard stop where come hell or high water, we either warmth or rain to beat it down ...or even cobwebs that can't stack - 2015 frustrates me and don't get me started on that seasons systemic lies. Lol. Anyway, yeah the pack seems to hit at that ceiling then something always gets thrown at it. Always something to f-it up ... Whenever we static the 32" ... I go into yellow alert mode and start combing teleconnectors for paranoid 'okay how's this gonna f-up this time' "Of all the saddest words ever said of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these, what might have been"

My favorite winter ensued... -although I was not a big fan of the thaw from Hades that late January early ('96) ... holy hell was that savage pack annihilation. I went from 35" in the level to essentially bear ground with ice puddle patches by the time the cold set back in early February... I think the rest of the way we managed to stack up 18" a couple of times but settled those pack depths down ... Never again to see the big yard-stick milestone depth that season, but we kept getting snows late adding to the seasonal till too - couple 6"-10" blue deals in April. Anyway, I remember October of 1995 differently then a torch the first 3 weeks tho ( by the way, the first 3-"4" weeks of October is just the whole month - lol ...) Anyway, I remember it as just the first 10-15 days being mild up at UML in the Merrimack Valley...so it may be gradation/latitude thing. I do remember it being latitude dependent when the first snow and sleety system came through around the 9th of Novie... That was the last time we saw bear ground until said thaw. But NYC was in the 60s when we were flipping between snow and sleet up there at school on the first system. Then HFD was snow and sleet on the next one, and we were all snow. It was like winter itself was backing down the coast like a BD... heh It was like where ever you were, once the snow line got to you ... you didn't go back, 'spreading south and southwest' like glacier tendency in the air. I remember around the 20th of October we started getting heavier frost mornings ... Yellow maple leaves were being cold pinched in calm dead fall morning cold around campus ... And the shade side of the Pawtucket water conduit, 50 feet high granite blocks that water trickles through due to hydrologic pressure ... the rivulets were freezing during those last 10 days of the month, and I remember seeing the ice still there in the shade 4pm just before sunset ...and commenting to self that it was interesting that ice was not melting ... It was steps in a process of never looking back. Yeah...November was mid winter from the Lowell to Acton arc of Middlesex, period. And December? Holy shit that was the coldest Dec I recall - I remember around the 10th of the month, a buddy and I were clamoring over snow piles negotiating sidewalks outside of pubs around downtown Boston, and a bank sign blinked 10 F ... The snow was squealing under foot falls and we were like Jesus, get us the f out of this cold! I remember thinking around Dec 21 how we'd already had a winter's worth of winter and autumn just ended. I've never seen a autumn relay into winter like that since... 2008 ... maybe close, with that 40" Dec but Novie was mild - I think...

Part of all that ? ... we need bigger sample sizes...sure. However, this is a bit different than a 'black-box' series of values coming out of a system we no nothing about, and then having to assess the significance of a series of aberrant values. We see other systemic morphology lending to causality. Such as speedier flows in increased hypsometric gradients between 35 N and 70 N in winters... As well, taller hypsometric ridge altitudes in summer... These are happening concurrently more so, with the advent or increasing frequency of snow in early and late. That sort of begs a causal link there, ...certainly suspicion. It's also counter-intuitive because higher heights should mean warmth...but, the increased wind is causing the flow to tip S over Canada early and late... due to the continental atmospheric bulge being enhanced in the rest-state PNAP. ... Anyway, it helps reduce the uncertainty of randomness when a driving mechanism can be identified - even though there's still supposition and theoretical debate there too. ugh - I just mean there's really no such thing as seasons ... not really. These are human conventions ... it's what we do as engineering, math-solving and language orchestrating artistic species, we fancifully create 'boundaries' and domain spaces out of reality. But reality is really more like cloud technology in a sense...

It'd be one way ..but unfortunately, not really what I was after Lol. I sense the focus there is because the word snow was inciting ? I wouldn't go so far as to characterize "...winters in the North will just be getting longer" Firstly the plural use of 'winters' sort of suggest a 'permanency' ... I am not intending to extend winter. You were responding to a paraphrased version of an early post, which lacking context may have sounded a certain way perhaps. Just making empirically based discussion points: We have in fact observed more snow(snow supportive atmospheres) in Octobers and April ( even May ) over the last 20 years, than %-relatively combining the previous 50 years. I was discussing climate - I'm not sure how one would logically tool an interpretation of 'winter as a season.' Having said that... I don't think winter as a season is being necessarily extended, no, now that the idea is floated - What I originally intimated: the transition seasons are being marred by cold interruptions that are offsetting an otherwise warmer than normal trend, but provided a canvas for plausible-why that is taking place. But these cold offset by virtue of happening in an above normal rest state, are making for very dramatic variances. I am not sure in an objective sense that means "winter" per se, as much as just means a new transition season behavior that's emerged in the last 20 .. particularly 10 years. The philosophy over human conventionality vs what is real in Nature comes to mind. As the ends of season blur those temporal conventions by patterns and sensible impact... it exposes the faux conceit in calling summer summer and fall, fall, and winter winter...when the boundaries are often seamless... I think of 70F Octobers with two packing pellet virga cu cold snaps fitted squarely into a categorization of no category - Lol...

Lol - nah don't fret ... 2015's can still happen - just not so predictable... I mean that whole ordeal back during that fateful February was actually even intraseasonal in temporal scale .. The whole season wasn't really terribly below normal in temperature... And as far as snow, I remember remarking in snark back then that for a lot of cases, if it did not snow a single flake for three consecutive years immediately going forward ( which wasn't the case, just sayn' ), than those locales would in fact only be normal snow for the 5 year climate sojourn - Anyway, ... I'm just saying in would not surprise me to see similar playout... some odd cold snaps early and late, with plausible snow chances ...with an extended period or something related to gradient/velocity surpluses doing weird things in DJF proper .. It would be keeping with both trend over recent years/decades, as well as actually fit other empirical based reasons - But we'll see... It's going to get colder as the daylight gets dimmer -

So based on all that ... If one were to forecast normal temperatures for October and November, ...obscuring and hiding the fact that there were a couple of cold and snow anomalies ... just because interceding air masses were dry and hot, ... Wouldn't shock me. Yup...totally "normal" October and November - just look at the 2 month totals/N-terms - nothing to see here. Nothing out of the ordinary... Hiding climate change ...Then, followed by a velocity stolen winter that claws and scrapes to snow averages in between ice events that fall short of warning by virtue of the fact that they can't hang around longer than 6 hours before their structures are smeared and sheared and blown open halfway to England ...Then, we even exceed "seasonal" totals because of May blue bomb on Memorial day in an apr/may combo that is -6 from norms due to the same folding afflicting springs - Obviously there's some sarcasm to this ..but... early and late cool snaps with snow out of calendar climo with an iffy mid winter gradient problem .... too repeating across both NINO/NINA/NADA ... and varying solar cycles... for me to assume these latter as primary in seasonal outlook philosophy. The empirical results can be explained by early hypothesis/relationship to changes that are already being actually measured and papered re climate change ...

Starting to see the 'continental folding' effect beginning to emerge more and more in guidance. What I mean by that is a large, hemispheric -scale Kelvin-Hem. wave effect from huge velocities ripping the mid latitudes and folding over the ridge over western N/A. In fact, this early cool pop over the next 36 to 48 hours is really part of that, and in my mind is integral in the same propensity ... increasingly more commonplace since ~ 2000 ... lending snow in Octobers and Novembers with increasing frequency. These are exaggerated shots across the bow ladies and girls - I suspect this is contributing to why we are observing unusually large temperature gradients either side of the mean polar jet, as was in part recently demoed over the eastern front range of the Rockies, in part exaggerated/augmented by elevation/mountain upslope effects. With +16 to even +20 C synoptic -scaled 850 mb thermal ridges ridging within 200 km of -2 to +3 C early season anomalies... Doing so at all is not hugely unusual; doing so relative to September climate is definitely not normal. The Denver 90s to 30s in 24 hours in snow, to these present modeled cinemas of 20C ( GGEM ) over Michigan not three or four days after being -2 C, over that area... these are fantastic roll-out events.. But, I don't think it is just this season. I think these sort of occurrences are part of the morphology of the large circulation eddy associated with climate change. Fast velocity has plagued even the summers - just not as readily observable ( more subtle ..). But all this is/has unusually registered/able R-wave coherency ... and that has been happening in summers since really the super Nino of 1998 ... however much or less notwithstanding. This coherency has lent to early season, western North America exaggerated +PNAP flow constructs, which in turn is why we have seen a frequency up tick in early cold intrusion events in Octobers and Novembers. This is at the transition where just the hemisphere is cooling ... yet several weeks prior to when the deeper gradient saturation of winter settles/compresses the flow; which triggers the "real" pattern emergence for that winter. But, I have noticed that we have had a lot of +PNAP high velocity pattern biases. We dont' seem to really deviate much from that - remove the 2015 anomaly from the data set since 2010, most of these winters in a fairly "smoothed" objective sense have not really deviated their patterns too tremendously obvious. It would all account for opportunity windows for strange cold incursions in the autumns, that would in fact roll out and swing wildly back mild ... due the expanded HC. "Packing pellet" virga CU October cold snaps followed by 70s has happened too often since 20 spanning 20 years...some half the seasons. It's anecdotal to add the following, but ...in the previous 30 years of my life, if I saw a grapple pellet in October ( May for the matter) it was arresting. Now ... it's like when is it not. That's enough to trigger acclimation and expectancy .. usually, that's climate impacting at a personal level when that more human response to change can be noted.

For the last 3 day's-worth ...some 12 cycles of the models, et al they have slammed the tropical season shut after this Teddy... fitting that in terms of ACE Teddy symbolizes a finale: it is the single ( probably ..) biggest contributor to the seasonal aggregate, and .. haha, that it would stay safely, unappealingly out of fun's way ...even bulging west upon exit track as a last hesitation mockery-smack in the face. It's like the scene in "Airplane," when Leslie Neilson's character smacks the woman a couple of times ..."Calm down! Get ahold of yourself!" Then the attendant intercedes, "Captain, your needed in the cabain. "All right -" but as he steps away ... he hesitates, looks over his shoulder, and steps back in as though 'upon second thought' - one last smack.... Then he finally steps away. Pretty funny scene - That's Teddy... lol - Yeah who knows if that abrupt season termination is legit. The models seem to do above median performance in predicting this recent 2-week flurry of Invests and other waste of timers for lusty dystopian geese, so perhaps they'll perform well to shut it down. The Euro, GFS, and GGEM operational versions all starkly end up in a dearth of features out there beyond Teddy over the MDR... It is nearing October so - One thing that occurs to me ... Scott had mentioned that although there is above normal actual entities to observe, the ACE has been normal for TC seasonality. We can thank the odd propensity to sputter everything... Teddy took days and days to gain 20 kts this and pressure that... and whatever's causing that belated realization has afflicted everything - as far as I can recall. Even Laura spent time fighting and languishing. Even over the last 24 hours since it finally gained it's merit badge ... heh.. Teddy hasn't looked convincing with ragged cloud tagged eye wall features...and weird curved bands that occasionally slice inward around the ring of deep convection from time to time. Oh, it's a cat 4 sure... you could just feel the writer of the upgrade discussion 'finally!' But, the last five years? That thing woulda been a Cat 6 and through eyewall replacements, with satellite TD rotating outer arms so far removed from the central pressure well that they've manage to formulate ephemeral cyclonic nodes... Kind of like artistic analog of the captured Magellanic Cloud dwarfs captured by the Milky Way. This season? There isn't enough "Dark Matter" - Anyway, it is interesting that despite the occurrence counts the ACE is normal... -ish ... I would extend that characterization of the normalcy ( so far...) to also having the occurrence-density timed on top of the climate bell-curve of activity/normal as well, mid September range on the calendar.

There it is ... the right of passage where it inevitably cast the illusion of moving SW spanning 1:30 hrs worth of looping

Still looks like an impressive frosting signal for early Sunday AM -

Ha! no way - I am much more suited for the "art" of speculation... Not just weather, but trying to figure out what in the f motivates the 3-loon quota of 'intelligentsia' that guides this crazy engagement offers a deep, deep well of plausibility doesn't it - hahaha.

Nah trust me ... just another internet voice, granted - but fwiw it is a general population/human condition thing; you are not that uniquely wired in that regard

This is the problem with society that has been overly stimulated by all this specter provided by technology - You're sentence really should read: "ALL the time it seems as though society thinks like a Michael Bay movie" Right now...out of doors, it is 81 F here with a DP of 57, with very little wind... a hazed-blue smoke sky with partially dimmed sun still showing ambiance over a peaceful setting only offset by the sound of late summer insects cutting the air with their cricket like song. Once in a while, a distance rumble of a flatbed truck resonates over the rooftops of the neighborhood, otherwise, entirely quiescent. That is the speed of reality. Nothing we see on the internet or the media tsunamis of chain-yanking occurs as a representation of the Natural order in a cause-and-effect circuitry. It is all self-imposed by humanity's frenetic arousal - nothing else. And society more and more is lost in the din of it. Everything and all histrionics is all man-f'n made ... a hurried illusion in urgency. All of it ... But, this is digressing into a socio-technological/philosophy course work ... just sayin' ...

OH I figured you were ... but, there are those that will really impugn and stick with it though, and it's kinda eye-rollin' ... just sayn' lol Also, I wouldn't say they are apples and oranges quite that extreme .... I get what you mean... but, seeing as the westerlies "appear" to have been overly 'curved' by the Euro and overly ( thus ) capturing too much in previous runs, versus the GFS ( opposite and needing its correction) that kind of makes the oranges influencing the apples - that's more like Pears haha....

Nah, not even close to true. Firstly, tropics and non-tropical modeling has defined differential performance ...so, it is entirely UN-reasonable to make this assessment based upon the tropics versus say ... S/W's between Japan and Greenland. There's also suspiciously frustrated hand throwing in this post, too - if so, one can only say, hey ...caveat emptor! Folks were warned. But society deals with this at all scales, all the time... throngs to groups to individuals .. bigger and smaller, hear what they want. Or, take what they've heard, and mutate it toward what they want. They still rationalize the warnings and spin information at/for some psycho-babble level ...I think it is in part psychotropic addiction behavior, like that which was exposed by "60-Minutes" two years ago... but that's venturing into thought on the matter - The Euro didn't do that bad... ? It didn't... Some of us painstakingly pointed out the individual model biases, and each model has played along with their biases accordingly - if those were incorporated into expectations.... this was superiorly predictable. The Euro tends to bias too meridian in flow structures at mid range - that contributes to too much capture, ...sooner and more proficiently. Contrasting, the GFS has too much stretching in its mid range... contributing to missing altogether. But what's happening? The GFS is hiccuping now, which is a capitulation to the Euro...which is trending flatter and less proficiently captured... So we are seeing a compromise emerge - oh the humanity. Objectively, this is not flying blind in totality, either.

It almost smacks of a Sandy scenario, only up the coast... But the bigger picture differentiates significantly in that we don't see a down stream ..west-based -NAO block ...that was part of Sandy's impetus in turning left. In this case, the left turn is a purer capture by U/A in the simultaneous process of cutting off. Again, the Euro tends to too much curved signature in the flow characteristic as a bias in this time range in question - and hate to say for the hopefuls ...the EPS tends to fallow it's operational lead more so than other guidance camps. Example... GFS and GEFS will part company for more frequently - So, this EPS may just be mirroring/concertedly like it normally does and may not be any more portending of much - We need support ... it's that simple. We need some other arbiter modeling resources to corroborate ... It's time sensy tho too - I mean, three day from now, if the Euro still showing this mess than it's more believable - probably.. Just saying 'for now'

Ease off the trophy throttle - hahaha.. That scenario offered up with that capture stuff is both outside of the Euro's wheelhouse, but also ...so damn unusual that it is perfectly justifiable to discount it as very likely - Nothing is impossible? Of course not... If you through 10,000 scenarios at reality, someone will eventually get bitten... but that means you had a .001% chance of an impact out of a single opportunity - ..yeah, rationally, I'd tend to give up when there's a 99.999% of not having the galactically absurd scenario take place. That said, I would caution for the general user/reader that the Euro tends to subtle meridian bias beyond D4.5 ...often taking troughs that are hinted up over Alberta and Manitoba ..etc., and over deepening through SE Canada. If one applies that possible bias in this situation - which in fact one should - the model could be doing so with the SW aspect of that diving flow out there "beyond it's wheelhouse" ...which than transitively if not directly results in the capture scenario - It is no wonder that the GFS, ...having the opposite bias in its mid and extended range, that being too progressive and stretching wave structures in the west to east ( while strangely being too cold with heights over Canada as a confusion... interesting - ), doesn't presently anticipate any capture at all.. In other words, we could easily be just looking at respective model bias creating their own fantasies about what that time range will be over the west Atlantic, and then as completely objective members of a lucid, incisively witted hoi polloi that we are ( that have NO interest in getting drama fed via exciting model solutions, to boot ) are then picking the models that seem to fit that agenda best... lol

It's not a bad way to anticipate ... no - But, we are in an era where the outcomes have increasingly been... 'extra ordinary' when inference from history/statistical suggestion is employed to put it nicely. Lol, the problem with that is, the event of concern gets to hide from expectation huh -

lol ... just kidding -

Some of the modeling is sort of a 50% redux of Harvey for the Bend area/coastal TX. I'd give it > 50% too, only that the upgraded ( recently..) invest in the vicinity down there is presently modeled to stay just off shore.. But, that could easily by vagarious chance end up a deeper system partially eclipsing the coast again - I have a hypothesis for an advanced sort of FEMA model... Basically, it's grid is populated by a facsimile-assumption that is already at a developed state? For example, modulate the D5 modeled complexion, and use that as an initial assumption - right there at the edge where chaos seems to hockey -stick error in guidance. Assume more development has occurred out 'then', and initialize and run the model... so it's coverage temporality would be D5 to 10 ... Have said initialization populated with a Category III hurricane - not just some modeled zygote circulation that is trying to gain pressure contours. The impetus here is that above some sort of momentum threshold, the models tend to change/morph their handling too much. The reason why I think that would be a hoot .. beyond just being a geeks paradise ... is because these models seem to not do very well, UNTIL an object is actually initialized in the grids they are run off of.. The Euro, for all recent peregrinations asides ..is still an outstanding achievement in the state-of-the-art of weather forecasting technology - but...realistically... ? not so much in the tropics. But, I can see that as a conditional distinction. If the tropical cyclone is deep in the troposhere and is mechanically "loud" in the initialization, the model doesn't do nearly as badly as it does when it's trying to modulate the arena from a mere TW to a Depression ... TS ... It just has trouble seeing the genesis' some times. Other times, it seems to go over board - although rare in this latter sense. Anyway, all the models tend to more track and structural intensity errors more so in the early phases of TC gestation. I think it would interesting to evolve a model that assumes a structure and presentation.

Let's get 90 D9 ...

You know it's funny ... that ICON model offered up a similar cinema of that whole relay ... yesterday's 12z and looking at the 00z ( and excuse if anyone's already mentioned this) it spared New England but repeated a similar notion by grabbing ahold of a full-bird Cat 2 'cane ...just fisting into NS instead. The only difference between the chastised and humiliated name calling of a dejected ICON that's going to grow up to become a serial killer, and the Euro ( CEO of a fortune 500 company) is a popularity scheme that gives the latter better self-esteem - we are just playground bullies ... as adults, huh ( digress...). But either is still a sociopath. Lol, truth be told, the GGEM has flirted with that sort of rare synoptic fusing thing lately too... But, positioning all physics in space and time is a very delicate precision by models that are too susceptible to chaos factoring - even in the Euro's touted 4-D variable smoothing system that is sort-a like supposed to chip away spontaneity of complex fluid mechanics ( chaos) thus leaving an expose of truth. It works ... sort of. Seriously, the fact that there are GGEM and ICON and Euro solutions that share in that genetics probably is more telling than who is getting what impact at this particular time range. We are still talking D5 to execute all that delicate handling, and that's outside the wheelhouse of even the Euro.

Mm... sounds "science fiction-y" doesn't it.. Pollution Meteorology is a course we were required to take as undergrads ...but that by no means makes us experts in that limb of atmospheric science, no. However, the way I understood: atmospheric particulates typically block incoming shortwave IR, and that "cuts the fuel" in the cycle - so to speak. The black body physics requires absorption, and then re-radiation in longer infrared ...that which is 'absorbed' by the atmosphere and so on. The particulate surplus suspension in the higher atmosphere ... mm maybe that can complete that as a closed circuitry aloft? I mean, smoke is really micron or smaller- scaled solid aerosols... so, they have to absorb - but that's part of the suspension of disbelief in the sci-fi. Because? the reality is that would be magnificently smaller in dimensional physics compared to the whole Earth and its total black-body physics of SW --> Infrared EM/ energy transference. Plus, the atmosphere is in motion. Any local effects that smoke plume has would be whisked away and absorbed into the large hemispheric eddy ... again, orders of magnitude smaller and thus it doesn't seem very significant off the bat. If anything... the smoke would tend to completely homogenize, ...world over in the x-y-z coordinate atmosphere. And then some many months later the global temperature my show an ephemeral decline.. Think Mt Pinatubo, 1992 -1995 ..etc. Even so, that is also not necessarily instructive on where the R-wave distribution takes place, either - which is what he's suggesting that smoke plume is in situ capable of doing? that's not how things work.. Sounds like another socio-technological scenario where too much information access at both ends is fomenting faux understanding. Op ed: People tend to stop at the threshold of plausibility and don't analyze further - because they either can't/ don't possess the mental wherewithal, or...don't care and have no ethics and it's fun. One or the other... real informatics and truism is are ever more so getting obscured by the din of fun drama, greed motivations ... or motivations of special interest groups - all of which is unprincipled. It's a catch-22 of technology vs evolution ...where the evolution that gave us the ability to invent the technology wherewithal, will inexorably lead to its extinction - and there you go ... believing our way off a cliff, because we are too caught up in the specter of the cinema to hear the Doomsday clock. thanks for playing humanity's time of the planet...