Typhoon Tip

wow... day 8/9 GFS oh so close to a big gnarly cold either snowy, or, going over to blue bonkers Nor'easter there... in fact, so close - and I've seen that before in extended GFS ...almost like an artifact of it's "stretching"/pulling bias ? - it creates kind of an abandoned CCB .. In this paradigm ...the associated cyclone ripped seaward because it sabotaged the relationship. Problem is, it has deeply unresolvable daddy-complex ... because he died when said cyclone was just 24 years of age ... when already suffering a 'princess complex' due to his being too bonded and affectionating ( not perverse...). So the CCB is this poor bloke that really loves her and is raging on in his storming passion, while she's running away Interesting -

not first ... and when I said that to her the " ... too" was not sincere - but whatever ...that's the path chosen for me for whatever reason.

I've had my heart ripped out twelve times in my life and have never heard a woman say 'I love you' to me ... so, meh ...I think you guys can endure a hernia operations if you got a compatriarch walking and talking among you without that particular organ -

I'm not buying it this time ( 00z nuanced optimism..) In the dailies we've been in this betrayal mode ... for years now. Ha... 48-hour sort of oscillatory .. clad favorable appeals seem to eerily know when it is time to swing back, thus optimized street cred reduction cycles ... Lol. Anyway, I'm not riding along with that. Put up or shut up mode is in effect! The Euro's ensemble mean - based EPO was NOT encouraging for cold loading just yesterday, so case in point, what does the operational Euro do? turns around at 00z and offers hope for lovelorn winter -SAD types.. - Nope. Put up or shut up... Sides, the GFS - ugh I have to admit ... - looks like a better fit for the history of the world and climate over the last decade plus of maelstrom rage. The GGEM is trying to conserve way too much curvature in the mid-stream jet latitudes as it ejects that D4.5 fantasy east, and over the top of 585 Atlanta Georgia heights... Florida, adjacent Gulf... Bermuda...the whole region is under a ridge that isn't merely ephemeral in the sense of synoptic transience. It is in part a construction of Ray's sweaty balls HC love-making session ... and with so much heated passion, the GGEM's sell gets compressed into thin streak of accelerated cirro-stratus.. Not curved into a neggie tilted blue bomb. The Euro is sort of doing too much/suspiciously looking conserved curvature too ...and ends up with a hard to believe SW flow set up out there D9... It's a bad year when your D9er Euro fantasies are Lakes cutters... You're not triggering a La Nina because the forcing latitudes are buried - I realize your incredulity is ribbing ...? cool. Keep in mind, I'm also just supplying hypothesis to explain these failing ENSO atmospheres ... That's all... ..but the SST distribution and easterly wind anomalies are because the HC is stronger than it was from 1901 to 1990, and that is mimicking La Nina ? Whatever it is... I still aver that the oceanic ENSO-atmospheric physics are not really coupled. If La Nina was in fact hemispherically integrable - meaning "REAL" ...we wouldn't be fielding NINO looks. You know, frankly ...I'm not even sure that's what that is...It almost just looks like crazy piece of shit modeling incapability to deal with anthropomorphic planetary destruction -

Ray I admire your courage and perseverance ...if not desperation to at last see rationality emerge, but doing so in a din of withdraw-addled weather-model codependent addicted products of modern psychotropic e-zombie-ism ... mmm probably doesn't end in a success paradigm -

Nice!!! sweet, thanks my 'gender neutral internet hyper PC convention ' No seriously ... are these one times as in now out of mercy, or is there a public access/url ?? Thanks man -

I don't know why I keep bothering to update/push a colder/stormier profile over this side of Hemisphere ... ' shit keeps doing this .. How about this "La Nina" structure, huh? ... wtf This straight up looks to me like my hypothesis back in August - sorry to say. That the "La Nina" ?? ... it's not coupled to the atmosphere. I think NCEP is full of shit in their PDF too ...trying to negotiate an interpretation, is what's up with them, because there is no way in f'ing hell this below ... If the general hemispheric eddy was truly coupled to the La Nina ... we wouldn't have EL F'ING NINO JETS COMING INTO CALIFORNIA! ... assholes... Stop selling interpretations, put down the coffee and Solitaire, and do your jobs. Oh shit I'm kidding... I'm sure they're all Master's and Phd asperger focused socially dysfunctional geniuses ... However, I don't agree that the hemisphere is "coupling" to any forcing by the ENSO state.. .because I've grown tired of reading their ENSO publications, then ... fielding these kind of modeling complexions by the Euro ( left ) above, (...having them more less verify as we are seeing enhancing precipitation into the at least N. Ca up through Wa/Or ). I said in August ... if not an exact quote, ' La Nina may happenstance look like that from time to time, as the pattern migrates through the idealized mode, but it won't be because of the La Nina... ' - it was in deference to the idea that the HC is muting these ENSOs because it has expand beyond and completely engulfed the normal "triggering latitudes" where their modulation then forces patternization. In this case...I suspect with having wind flux anomalies in the mid latitudes that have been raging since...oh, 2002 ... there has to be a compensatory mass somewhere... Some of the wind channeling off toward polarward motion ...spliting N into the WCBs from cyclonic/trough gestation... But some of it by convention does split S and ends up underneath, and thus ...you have [ possibly ] enhancing easterly trades, purely as a function of more in must move more along those lower latitudes... causing SS stressing and plying the surface oceanic temperature distribution into mimicking La Nine; as the base-line state, but not really indicative of actually having one. I'm starting to wonder .. is that intrinsically misleading...So, we end up expecting to see the right annotation above, but because the total hemisphere is really ...doing something else, the left panel keeps existing Hypotheticals aside/here and now: Thing is ... I wasn't making that other stuff up re the GEFs ( at least - for how little they must be worth ) derived teleconnectors. They were/are biased toward a colder/stormier suggestion ... enough so that even if they don't ultimately verify a convincing look, when moving the mode of the AO down, the NAO down, and the PNA up ...that synergy typically gets interesting ( at least) . But this? Above? Even the operation GFS is doing this ... and altogether, the operational runs are kind of in some sort of epic tug-a-war against that. It's like some agency is designing this to deliberately create a futility in the art of predict lol The EPS ... does anyone have those numbers? Like ... I don't wanna read anyones interpretation... I want to see EPS NAO = ? EPS PNA = ? EPS AO = ? ...The only ones available to the easy-to-find Internet/Americas appears to be the MJO coverage offered at the Climate Diagnostic Center.

Despite these rip-and-read peregrinations by the operational models ... clearly as though they are trying pull the short-and-curlies of those that want winter storms by vacillating and taunting ... ( lol ) ... the American/GEFs teleconnectors still look interesting post the 20th. They sort of backed off en masse for a couple of cycles but the 00z came back in an impressive fashion. What's interesting is that the MJO coverage by the Euro and GFS and their respective ensemble means also backed off the previous advertisement for Phase 8-1-2 maturing wave strength... which is strange. It's like every aspect of the atmosphere backed off ?? That's interesting to have a cross-guidance 'holistic' sort of oscillation like that - I mean regardless of modeling...they all did the same thing. Now, ...that's probably intuitive to some degree - they all use the same geophysical equations so...assuming one or two are veracious and dependable...ducks tend to waddle in herd mentality. Uh...they should move together - ... But something maybe got into the initializations that caused the perturbation in continuity but/and perhaps it's just ironed out - In any event, the AO is very concertedly going negative ... by week two it's in free fall. The NAO is also bending neutral and extrapolates that way ..though with those Iceland bombs the usual variety of E or W basing is uncertain... And the PNA is camel backing out there too - that's all indicative of blockier stormier hemisphere to close out the month. Yet...we have to "endure" D3 thru 6 balm swathing up over ORD to Boston ... and in that time, the above signal may come and go ...but will largely be ignored as the cat's head in the paper bag phenomenon uses the D5, 70 F afternoon to glaze their perceptions of the reality - haha

Holy Tony Robbins with journey through self-empowerment and positive thinking .. - y'allz killin' his bottom line while his conference halls vacate and opt in here instead for free expose' lol

Ah could also just be pattern change typology - These large mass-field modalities seldom are handled with eclat by the guidance ...and particularly that would seem true - intuitively - in an era of unrelenting, multi-seasonal hemispheric permanent wind flux anomalies. With a concerted rise in the PNA ..ranging ~ -.75 to +.5 ... roughly a 1 SD, through the end of week two, with an equally concerted by vastly larger amplitude shift in the AO ... while the MJO is improving through Phase 8-1-2 ... To mention, the subtle trends of the operational runs ... These observations do not connote we are heading into a paradigm that really very remotely resembles where we've been over the first couple of weeks of this month. But...back to point: getting there from there, seems to always require sending us through all kinds phantom wave- fractals giving rise to systemic modeling migraines during the here and nows. The Euro's notion .. hm, I was afraid of something like that when that 12z solution yesterday ejected a mid/S stream system through a split flow under that SPV fragment dangling N of Lake Superior as it had at the time. So ... on this cycle, yup - it goes ahead and tries to latch onto said fragment and drive it into said mid/S stream...so prodigiously as a matter of fact the height compression completely distroys the southern stream S/W identity in lieu of dry historic short term cold wave ( suggested ) along the usual continental conveyor ( NP-Lakes ...NE ..yadda yadda ) boooorrrrinnnnng... But, can't say that's not likely any more than it is ... "IF" the pattern does head that way - which I think it is ... Anyway, couple years ago we were 9 F at 1pm on Thanks Giggedy from something similar to that ... We don't have to cleave back far in the annuls at all to shut up the doubters over whether a look like that can happen - oh...they'll still claim Trump did great things though... F brain-washed zombie cow-tied nimrods - it's like arguing with the Black Night in Monty/Python with these vacated brain-boxes - yeah...there's a conspiracy to make Trump lose the election alright - it's called ... wait for it - THE F'N ELECTION ... yes...that's right ...all people got together and "conspired" through the vast entangled pathos and ethotic labyrinth of societal interconnectivity ...and arrived upon the clear and decisive, motivating conclusion that it is time for the biggest mistake in history to move over, because that same systemic process/consensus ... hates and despises you - Sorry for the tongue in cheek satirization of current events... anyway, ...I still think there's an important system possible in that time frame... circa D9 through 15 ... It's unclear if there's a singular entity to focus on ...or just an era to ponder/perhaps buckshot. Typically .. even in cases with modest PNA rises from late autumn into winter ... a concerted modality among the various camps and ensemble means therein - which I believe we are seeing? - statistically favors an indirect if not direct "Archembaultian" adjustment event ... It helps for winter enthusiasts that said event, if so ... , would transpire going from a warm regime into a cool one.

God I hate D10's !!! ugh - that's a be-a-u-tiful hemisphere on that day .... which for pure probability/statistical inference means that what is likely to occur is not that same look when said look becomes D 1 - ... ( so ur tellin' me there's a chance ..) I hope we don't do this all winter with these perfect set ups out there -

That D10 flat out extrapolates into a winter storm for the Upper OV --> NE arc... . no question. In fact, if taken verbatim that 500mb evolution lead-up and in situ layout on D10 itself ... that would forbade any cyclonic movement west of 75 longitude as very difficult to physically pull off ... Nope.... any cyclone primary gets that far N ( say BUF) and you're Miller B'ing your way out of that mess.. That's just what that set up means - sorry. Whether that happens.... ? Duh - just saying "verbatim" But, the American cluster ( as I advertised earlier) is crashing pretty hard in that time range so ... I'm a fan of cross guidance hand-shakes - ...just have to see if this is worth of an applause

word! I had just edited that post to that inclusion -

Furthering Will's point along with that 'roller-coastering' aspect ...we're probably at a premium with deterministic skill right now - which is to say... highly valued do to not having much -lol.. The 00z Euro seemed to be an entertaining extrapolation on that whole-scale flip it did earlier in the day (12z...) but this run seems to try and ease off that complexion and go back more zonal this time next week...which brings some more seasonal balm into the region. But we're likely to get these kind of alternations over cycle clusters until D4 < in this sort of transitory deal - you know this shit jus sayn' ... But, notice the hUgeMANgous temperature variations either side of the D7 layout from say S/SE Manitoba to Day/OH ... I mean, that period of time is sort of ripe for an ice storm and the 00z Euro was really setting one up ( frankly...); who'd bother to comment on an ice storm on a D10 chart tho, right - Anyway, big continental temperature variances so your 'home grown' idea there ... Also, adding to that, these blocking nodes popping off may be weak, but we are seeing cold loading into at least 55N in Canada ... -20 C has been growing in the 850 layout/synoptic depictions across recent runs at least down to that latitude... It's likely that anyone doing a late Golf outing in just a light pull-over along 45 N doesn't realize how close to peril their balmy day really is ... EDIT: actually right after D7 that's getting rather blue anyway -

You're under a 540 dm thickness column in a saturated/near saturated with weak negative stability - deal with it

The Industrial Revolution

Clarifying ... what I mean is that I feel there is a reasonable chance for substantive winter-line storminess between now and 'Giving - I'm in a seminar at work - ugh...droning... The entire GEFs mass-field/teleconnector complexion has returned to that original idea from 10 or two weeks ago ...whereby the latter half of November would receded after the warm hiatus? If anyone recalls - dig it up -...it seems presently apropos again. Scott Will ...whomever may have their own reliance packaging and so forth, but from what I am looking at ... it could clip to a colder profile tendency for events just as fast as it did prior to the Halloween snow with 70 and two days later we're under an advisory and verifying ... this time around, there is even more cold air to work with too - the cute scales are ruining major Met reputations unfortunately -

We're having winter by thanks giving

I think we have a better chance than slight for snow next week - how much so ..? But I suspect it's not as low as all that. it's just that said chance is not painted by any models, either - ha! Not helping my case...no. It's what imho I think is in the "likeliness" envelope of that time frame... Seeing a bulge, ...albeit subtle ( I get it ), in the PNA guidance. The GEFs are very concerted tho, and this aligns with the antecedent ...albeit low end materialization of a phased 8-1-2 MJO migration. Here's a mind-bender ... if the HC expansion shit wasn't in play ( at all times in the fluid construct of the global scale), we'd see a strong wave mechanical presence emerging in the observation net - but this is like a strong wave being ( I "think" ) masked/muted/hidden/concealed ...whatever adjective best suits, but the smothering effect of the expansion stuff is suppressing a better detection. I think/suspect that what is being modulated out of both the Euro and GEFs clusters ( reasonably agreeing) shows enough presentation there to suggest a forcing... A flat-like +PNA with 50/50 chance at a pulsed -EPO loading are within the framework of results. The flow being fast over all helps that overall thinking; the more momentum ... it is "easier" for the models to map that out in time ...so it's not like the same scenario where we have subtle teleconnector modalities in a nebular flow that has more entropy guiding uncertainty... It's more like looking at the girders in the scaffolding as iron-clad because the bigger momentum has more weight -

this ought poke some hornet nests... How 'bout Deutsche Bank's proposed 5% "work from home" tax to be levied against those who ...wait for it - work from home Ha ha... It's great ... Pandemic forces this state of affairs, then ... those that who have no choice but to work from home, get economically pinged for it - it's soft persecution to single out that group for one. It's another example of how the human contrivance of 'money' ... is intrinsically disconnected from the same nature that evolved humanity. It's always fascinated me how it seems we, as a species, seem to lose sight of that. As though it's indispensable, we can couch its illusion of value in with, E=MC2, PV=NRT, and DNA = DeoxyriboNucleic Acid ... etc Point being, when the illusion gets in the way of the real processes of nature, to wit the pandemic is one such real process... trying to use that same illusion to fight back is going to cause iniquity .. there's no way around it. The simple solution is, don't do that - ...Here's some fake yet plausible news for you... NO, Douche-Bank doesn't give a ratz ass about recouping a 5% work from home tax, so that those who have been displaced from employment can breathe relief - hell no! Their f'n cloaking their incentives in good deeds ... They're trying to take wealth from working folks, give it to non-working folk, so the non-working folk can resume payment on defaulting mortgage ..and school ..car or whatever loans Douche' ultimately owns the account #s for, that's all.

Whatever happened to the 'virulency is losing its potency' claims ? I guess like all 'information' in this present era of wanton liars an paralyzing immorality, it was proven unsubstantiated?? Or maybe it/is was true, but just not the case everywhere. My guess? We won't know ...because it erodes on the profit of the commercialization of this issue to inform the masses of that. Meanwhile there's still a sociological aspect to this ... namely, people are 'getting used to this' as a background sort of canvas. Reaction to reality now is starting to raise eyebrows - that happens. Fear tends to erode in collective thinking given time and exposure in any crisis scenario; that statement doesn't require a theoretical, post-doctoral data-based inclusion to be true. We all know this... that's why we are no longer scared ( at least most of us...) by that dark closet at the other side of night as adults... blah blah... So familiarization breeds contempt.... That's true in a lot of ways ... and another phenomenon that emerges from that same circuitry at the individual level, which then integrates and becomes of the whole, is that familiarization emboldens folk and they'll lower precaution. We can 'sense' it taking place around us, now. There's something happening ..out there in society that I predicted would - and not taking credit; most sentient adults did, too. Word of mouth is factorable. People are hearing stories of others that have tested positive, and did not assimilate symptoms. Or, their anecdotal passage through the illness was minor... Pro athletes are showcasing this. Marcus Smart (Boston Celtics), or Cam Newton ( NE Patriots) but performed at a professional levels after having recovered... etc... There are exceptions - but they are "exceptions" which by definition and convention means they do not represent the bell-curve of experiences. But for those, some did/do go on to manifest some sort of longer termed heart and or lung and or ...I dunno, Covid-Toe aspects, but those are eventually resolvable (from what I've read) via therapies, save for rarities. But, even with Influenza-A and B ... you get these too! See, the Industrial Media Complex's "social engineering" is to keep pulse rates elevated ...for click and swipe for profit economics. It is just another act in shameful-unethical informatica if endemic to present era - just imho. We keep hearing about the atrocities of C-19 in a vacuum ...like on an island with no conceptual-dimensional boundaries that can be used to put things in perspective, on f'ing purpose! 'Nother prediction, ...that word of mouth is eventually going to be insurmountable against the Fox and CNN monsters in the dark closet at the other side of the room, and they'll ceasing being able to trigger the histrionics that keep their profits up...and we'll see the 'real' reality of C-19s 'affliction' at that time. It's probably just another historic thing that we develop a vaccine for... that degrades a "crisis" into "crisis management" ...which ultimately becomes "on-going seasonal public health concern" ...just like Influenze A-B ... And all the while...we'll be consuming headlines about how, " ...Life as we know it will never be 'normal' again..." .... BULLSHIT. The genomic root of Infl A and B is in fact the Spanish Flu... and if history ever should repeat ( THAT never happens in Humanity, huh - ), soon as folks mash up 'word of mouth' familiarization with a sense of technological buffer/protection... good luck imposing personal liberties Fox and CNN.

I love to argue against these sort of presumptive aspects ... so tfwiw - ... but I've seen big storms with cold winter porn addiction satisfaction ( as if that's possible - ) WITH/while that vortex was there. There are no 1::1 correlations. I know you know this ...but, I'm just reminding ... I personally don't throw hands and assume the worse for wear just because it shows up out there in guidance ...suggestively ... even if clad in fashion. What I do admit is that it makes it harder to get said kleenex and tissue-paper event to transpire - sure. Having said that...I don't think that semi/quasi-permanent gyres are "systemically favored" to evolve given the geophysical limitations imposed by velocity saturation - fancy words for too much rest state wind speed ( Ha, kind of an oxymoron there: 'resting wind' ) ... but y'all get what I mean... I mean in between storms, the wind still howls along at some positive anomaly. See. ...we're sorta conditioned to think of the winter hemispheres as looking certain ways from time to time? But, those may be increasingly outmoded in present era of higher tropospheric flow rates, compared to the previous climate regime; which ended ...so it seems, around 15 years ago when this maddening maelstrom stuff got more observably plaguing cold season hemispheres. In simple terms, it's hard to maintained curved surfaces ...when the flow around them is exceeding the coriolis/forcing input. The flow 'rips' open troughs and keeps things from closing. It doesn't mean you can't have bombs and ephemeral closures too - we're talking about mitigation, not complete obstruction. Part of the velocity surplusing is that the R-waves will also tend to be more progressive in nature ...just wave mechanics at the planetary scale - if we run through the enormous complexity of Navier-Stokes at these huge scales ...and ad giant DX terms ... the curvature of the flow suffers ...and that's why the progression bias has lurked ...this should be automatic and intuitive to any of us that had to go through those f'n calculations to graduate. Anyway, I don't think we can really sustain an anchored butt-bangs ...or 'anchor' anything ...there or anywhere else...long enough to dictate a season's bias complexion. The easiest pathway to getting a good winter out it is a multi stream long wave synergy ...where the wave numbers sort of coalesce to more like a 4-wave hemispheric model ... with fast transporting moderate impactors moving through the circuitry.

I am noticing a slightly better concerted look to the various ensemble clusters handling on the MJO as it’s trying to strengthen 8-1-2 ... Not a bad look but... it may also be a coincidence… we just can’t seem to be reliant upon these pattern changes. We’ve seen whole scale mass field alterations change like this since April and then they just disappear I guess it adds a little bit of intrigue to this thing because the original vision from 10 days ago looked like the second half of November would be a different story; and I remember writing about that but I also remember subsequently pulling the plug on it – ha! nice to kick off the season with a blunder We’ll see. But that really is a pretty hefty en masse flip on that cycle

Nice analysis, James

If that holds the GGEM led