Typhoon Tip

No soda is obviously the best course ..., but, a little soda, won't hurt you. The problem is that people with eating disorders ...which is a vastly larger number of American population than is generally thought ... thinks that what in reality is too much, is a little ... not understanding that just because it seems like a little to them... These types, less than anything they prefer is "a little" ... Breaking down those illusions are a whole 'nother challenge. I lost 35 lbs since February doing various life-style practices, but didn't cut soda out entirely. I average about 6 to 8 ounces of ginger-ale, which is well short of the 12 to 16 ounce typical purchase size... Now, sure... 7 ounces a day, one might argue the weight loss could have been say... 45 lbs. However, there are tolerance thresholds in the body, where you can handle 'up to' a certain amount of activity and won't gain(lose) weight so long as one is under those limites. Now, I am visibly thinner and my heart rate is like 50 beats a minute. I don't even get winded on runs any more... nearing 4 miles and I can still take a deep breath comfortably. I feel pretty strongly and confidently I'm under said threshold...a.k.a. the real little. So while not engaging is the only way to be Military certain ... I've read and lived that a small amount of cocaine and heroine aren't all that bad -

An EML cap recession exposing 5,000 SBCAPE to 8C/KM lapse rates, with a 100 kt 700 mb jet fist punching over in tandem would be nice... Or bad, depending on one's level of responsible thinking and sanity. heh... this looks like "under water" rainfall rates and training. Honestly, I wonder how much lightning even happens with such high glaciation levels

Mmm... probably doesn't have legs but, brown outs in 10 days we'll see...

Right - not absurd when people really want it. Reminds me of the scene in "What Happens In Vegas" - cheese pap quick comedy starting Ashton Kucker and Cameron Diaz... She's scheming to try and get him to default on their marriage, so she calls all her hottie friends and has them show up at his door... acting like they need to hang out there because of x-y-z... So cut-to --> the appartment is soon wall to wall uber hot chicks listening to music, dancing and tippin' beers ... and Ashton's on the phone trying to explain to his buddies how " It's legit ...this totally happens!" I actually like the movie... quick paced and good cadence for killin' an hour and a half over mindless pratfalls and mid-wit humor - has it's merit...

Yup .... best summer ever! https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/30/health/crypto-outbreaks-pools-cdc-warning/index.html

I've read/observed SST are below normal surrounding ... That said, cove temps in a still/calm unstressed shore environment after 3 days of high sun will create shallow thermoclines that don't stand up to the first offshore breeze that materialized. Poof... cold. We are in the tripole Atlantic phase of the AMOC and that tends to pool cooler than normal water along the terminus of the L. current - just fyi...

I was talking specifically about cubs with protective mother getting startled... you're siting a different scenario there - least the AC spoke at length about it and its stuff I've read on that anyway - mother bears are a different lot; escape or not, if in their primal brains they feel there is any threat to their kids, you're in the wrong place. I mean ...in general, what I encountered was minimal risk. I was not presenting any threat to it and it had options for vectoring out of there... But any time one sees a wild meat eating animal that probably stood over 6 foot on hind legs also fill up a bike path in front of them, that's bit disconcerting.

It is an agreeable run relative to trends and other indicators, yeah... It's also better in that D6-9 range where/whence prior runs stressed climate and reality a bit beyond the pale to put it mildly ... although the total x-coordinate of the wave lengths a little long if picking hairs...

word...I forgot to up that statement - was looking at BED ...where it's now just shy of 33 C ...so their besting 90. may want to watch for a breeze flip. I mean the < 10 kts is not a deep layer considering the synoptics, so if the wind flips around they'll bounce there easily - sometimes that happens late on days like this. I once saw it go from 76 to 94 at Logan almost immediately -

If one has elevated uric acid by some sort of either congenital condition or compromised renal function, fruits and greens/alkalinity doesn't offset. You may not be one of those types... hopefully but, if you have elevated uric levels and you elevate your blood alcohol, that impedes both kidney uric evacuation capacity, regardless... It's all a matter of whether one's base-line is elevated or not. But you can take a normal uric level person and get them to a gout attack with alcoholism and a bad diet... and you can drive a gout sufferer mad by living a squeaky clean life style and still they get attacks. Having said that, grilled steak and mushrooms are like number 2 on the gout checklist ...regardless of whether you have issues with it innately. But so long as you're doing that... I'd throw in a couple table spoons of minced garlic and a quarter cup of soi-sauce as a marinade - ...man. That's fuggin yummy

Ooh... couple of stout Guinness' and you'll be set up good and proper with a nasty hobbling gout attack by sun up

hahaha... 'Magine Boston being +30 on July 3rd... It'd be like 108 for a high and a low of 84 .... more like Phoenix. I don't know if the sun can even transmit enough radiation for that around here. We'd need it to be almost 30 C at 850 mb probably... You know what it hearkens to really ... how/why the arctic regions are warming faster than the lower and middle latitudes in the planetary integration of GW. The arctic is empirically measured to warming much more comparing to regions < 60 N. I wow factor that big media has no compunctions about shock jocking the hoi polloi into buying publications over, either... It may be counter-intuitive, but ... that is so, because those northern regions have physically more room to rise. I guess it's like turning an up from the last possible setting for 450 to broil; the equator is 450 already. The earth can only house broil. So those regions can only differentiate upwards so far... But, we can certainly move heat N and use feebler sun to warm it that much more, and the two together can mean giant swings.

Local news media down our way has been warning about bird-feeders in particular ... ( not so much bees but... duh - ). I hadn't paid too close attention. Every so many years you hear of a bear sighting. Cayote does in a house cat ..or Bobcats too. But this year there's been some heightened thing going on... I think there's been a few sightings with a momma and cubs ..perhaps more than one family's been roaming around out here in these NW rural burb's lately... That's what the AC gal intimated on the phone when the call came in asking questions about where and what circumstances, and what exactly I say a couple hours ago. She also said what I saw fit the description of big male and that was a little more alarming in that Ayer is brick-and-mortar town with streets and thoroughfares ... terminating into near-by neighborhoods with lawns that fade into woodland lines. Not totally cow-poke with some population density, so - She mentioned the bird feeders ...and that bears (apparently) have a remarkable memory for where they can eat. Dumpsters behind diners and grocery stores are also a problem, which we have both those too.. You're right about the timidity of the bears ...and this one acting skiddish and fleeing the scenario is typical. But, the "startle" factor is a different thing... It's true that bears will make haste, even with cubs, but if you come up on one so quick and startle them while proximal that's a different beast - perhaps literally...

I think Boston/Logan may have touched it's first 90 of the year this hour. They were 89 and change (31.7 C)

It's a good point actually.... I mean, human-based conceits and science loves to create blocks and margins out of a reality that is really liquid... There's really more like paradigm 'nodes' with overlap region in reality. These nodes have faded/amorphous boundaries where it just sort of becomes the new new adjacent paradigm with a silent transition between - that's what really delineates typology. Blurred lines... Anyway, sparing a glassy-eyed babble. It does make one wonder if/when they transition into the new weighted block of time, if there may be some interesting norm to anomaly relationships noted -

Yeah... honestly, I wasn't 'scared' per se? I really didn't know what to do. Locking the breaks was really more instinctual - like... sometimes when you ride past a dog the dog will be inclined to chase? Similar deal... didn't feel like being chased by a bear - ha. But yeah... I think I had internal voices telling me not to act panicked or to make sudden moves. So I just slid to a stop and froze, and let the bear notice me... Soon as it did, it bounded away. The whole encounter was really only 40 or 50 feet - so ...despite what I'm saying now, that's definitely way way too close per both common sense and advice by animal control/specialists for that particular species. But it was accidental thing... I haul ass...average 19 to 22 mph on my rides so I happened onto that scene very quickly and zomb! But it's true...if that had been a mom with cubs trying to cross the path .... oy. Not sure the situation resolves the same way - I tell you though...what they say is true. Despite the beastly nature of that animal, they are very very skiddish. That guy really was more afraid of me than I was of him... I was still trying to figure out what to do about the meet up when he was already gone.

90 in Ayer. Hot, period.

For those of us who live mid ...north Middlesex co ( and probably everywhere else W-N-NE of here... ) be careful about bear - I was out doin' a 25 mi ride yesterday and had to lock the breaks, skidding to a stop when I finally processed what I was looking at along the side of the bike path. A huge gamely black shadow was a that of a black bear. The encounter was only abut 3 mi from Ayer ..which is a fairly populated, and though the path its self appears wilderness on both sides there... there are lots of back yards in the region this guy was seen, too. Soon as the sound of my breaks it turned it's leer down toward me, and it leaped over the bike path and scurried into the woods... Pretty amazing. Enormous... It pretty much filled the path width. f'er musta been 500 pd ...I guess a big big male. You know, these television and photos ...they don't do those justice. Those beasts are bigger than we think. So I continued along my ride and less than a quarter to half mile later I pass a young mom with a tot in a stroller... I felt compelled to warn her the bear was in the vicinity... her eyes got big and she turned the stroller around, "okay"... It started to sink in and so I warned others along the bike path. Later as I was bragging about the encounter to other friends and family... they were scolding me for not going to animal control... and I guess in retrospect...if that had been a mom with cubs, I wonder if my sudden startling her would have ended the same way. You might be going, "Tip hasn't posted in months." heh. anywho, I went to the police and then 20 minutes later Animal Control called and took all this information. They said the were getting higher frequency of sightings with mom and cubs in the area, but that description above did sound like a male to them and they were all freakin out.

Yeah it was 2011 ... not 2010... Jerry, that 2011 July day beat out Aug 2002 by a couple of ticks. I was working a gig down on Comm ave. right across the B.U. block ...and recall the day pretty vividly .. the highest I found was 98 - that day I recall even remarking that a cirrus plume perfect timed 10 to 2 pm to steal 3 clicks off "frosting" off the totals - ... definitely a hot one though

The models are battling between a PNA vs an EPO pattern canvas through D15. ...and they really shouldn't be favoring either .... At least, not so coherently. The planetary wave lengths are being modeled longer than the traditional climatology suggest they should be. The result is late mid and extended range layouts with these weird mid winter R-wave constructs ... When PNA, deep JB vortex and exotic gradient with a long-wave trough that engulfs the entire continent. Mmm... okay there, GFS. You go boy - Then, more of an EPO takes over, and we get heights to tuck into the west like they should... but then the GFS does this thing where it ablates the ridge/heights from rising back east... SO yayyy...GFS gets to be cold no matter what. meanwhile it's destined to be 88 to 92 every day thru Saturday. This week was just like that described above, when it was in the extended range mind you.

the hottest I recall in the last 20 years was a day in ... I think it was late July 2010. It was 99 at 11:50 am driving down Rt 9 at 50 mph for several minutes...indicative of that temp being legit ( as far as modern car dash. readings go...). By 4:30... driving back down that same road was 105. Now, at the time, NWS sites were all in the 99 to 102 range ... but, those housing are not situated in the mall -town brick-and-mortar setting of open parking lots and broad black-topped streets like Framingham's rt 9 expanse, either. In fact... that may be the hottest day I've ever experience since moving to New England 30+ years ago. Anyway, keep in mind... it's hard to get 100 F ? Beyond the obvious... our sun needs to be fairly unadulterated/unabated to get that, with nearly ideal wind direction. Those two factors can ruin a bona fide 100 F entry ...and cap it to 96 real real quick around here. Not sure if it is a latitude issue ... or a geographical one, but I assume we are nearing the insolation angular threshold, such that geographical features does the rest. sumpin' like that ... Of course, I think Fairbanks, Alaska's all-time reading is 101 ... or maybe that was Ft Yukon... i dunno

couple of 102's ?

This is just for the general reader: This is like the new normal ... "+1" ... Obviously, there's a more exacting decimal value... but, with the background global thing ...every location everywhere runs a flat probability, however large or small, of averaging above normal, for every interval of time being evaluated. GW inuits that is a positive result. That's basically just the math of everywhere being an climate curve with an upward angled slope. Relative to that slope... a 0.0 month is actually below normal (hmm ...that'll scratch some heads). So what I'm getting at as is sort of a philosophy. It might actually be useful to determine with better sophistication what the slope of the curve's trajectory is based on the last 20 years ...and to the best tech can offer, prognosticated going forward. Then, one can assess two distinct forms of above(below) normal: One that is a comparison between results vs the scalar climate numbers; and one that is relative to that curve. That's the more important metric in my mind... The GW stuff has it's threat ... but in nature, it's always the acceleration that gets you...in every system in reality.. A region may get used to +1 ...then ... gets whacked with a +3 ...may mean something extraordinary and unusually stressing may have taken place. We live in a world where climate models predict the increased frequency of deadly heat waves ...and well, guess what...we're getting them. Not in southeast Canada, the U.S. eastern Lakes and New England for whatever reason... but the world is suffering these. These events exceed the background slope of the curve's upward trajectory and are such acceleration events.

I dunno if that D10 Euro chart from 00z was intended for sarcasm/ribbing or what, but ...the 850 mb chart for that same time has 20 to 21 C air ribbon/plume streaking up over SNE in a narrow warm sector! So...yeah, either way.. Torch look... Hey Wiz' ... Saturday is emerging somewhat as a convection contender. There is strong evidence using the freebie/granular charts alone, for a bit of an EML expulsion to arc up over the ridge ...N of the Lakes at 48 hours, and pluming down over all of New England Friday. That's a hot day! ...probably the hottest of this stretch with 18 or 19 C and what gradient there is ...offshore. But, come Saturday, a coherent dent ripples along through eastern Ontario and it's dragging a decent mid/upper air wind acceleration right into that stagnated elevated mix layer. Just for these canvased parameters, that looks like a day to watch. Limitations would be...does that S/W up there trend a little flatter.. if so, there's probably still too much CIN ... part of the idea is that heights along the ridge rim fall just below a threshold ..signaling some tendency for the EML to expose lapse rates to what is probably still very warm/sultry air mass in place...etc..etc.. But if that gets less, than naturally the risk reduces. Right now ...I'd say NNE is under the gone either way in that over all evolution.