Typhoon Tip

It's an unusual look.. That "Day 8-10 500mb Mean" product over at PSU E-Wall's site showing that vast neutral-positive NAO circulation construct up over the northern arc of the Atlantic Basin, pan-wide..., while simultaneously maintaining a negative geopotential anomaly N-E of Bermuda ...is subtly unusual. That's a poor teleconnection; there should be ridging there... More over, the heights E of 100 W over North America should also be rising more as well. The operational guidance are even carving out an "inside slider" over California ... en route to establishing at least an ephemeral Great Basin trough axis... while not really raising heights back east to conserve mass. Something is off... but - Some of this may be good ole fashioned pattern-change model instability. But .. I've also been observing more and more teleconnector failures in recent years ... possibly related to 'you-know-what' .. Unknown, but the fast flow winters that feature wind anomalies ( and this is noted by FAA and commercial piloting et al, too ) is also related. Meanwhile, we keep registering only modestly above normal temperatures relative to the background GW curve. India is in a 30-day heat wave, "one of the longest in history" ... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/india/india-heat-wave-deaths-intl/index.html Here's the paragraph that I find intriguing if plausibly telling: "...A delayed monsoon has contributed to the prolonged hot weather, arriving in southern India around June 8, seven days later than usual. Northern India is still waiting for its annual rains..." The circulation engine for the Monsoon happens because of rising air along the foot of the Himalaya's ... which is accelerated in the spring. Mass conservation draws atmosphere off the ocean regions surrounding the continent... moving copious moisture inland to fuel rains. Speculating, but ... if the atmosphere is warming top to bottom associated with you-know-what, that mitigates the acceleration in spring, because it caps the instability - the engine doesn't rev up... So, all you have is heat. Not a bad entry hypothesis for a scientific investigation - usually.. they do come in simpler precepts. Anyway, weather and climate 'unusual'-ness everywhere is becoming a lesser commodity. Our relative temperate climate behavior over mid latitudes of North America, when the rest of the world appears to be bearing greater impacts by perceived causally -related climate changes ... is perhaps an insidious anomaly in its own rite. Namely ...because folks don't usually associate relative quiescence with a problem. We have calamities... floods in the mid west. Tornadoes... Hurricanes... etc.. But, separating these from the multi-century frequency/return rates is difficult at best, otherwise an arduous, vitriol -resulting task. Beating out perennial Monsoonal timing by multiple weeks ... with deadly 30-day heat waves .. might just be easier to differentiate from the background climate. We don't seem to have that issue in the U.S. as frequently. This whole climate debate is like that. Difficult. I've opined this to ad nauseam elsewhere... but the paraphrase goes like: Humanity's failing ... is that it doesn't tend to respond to "threats" it cannot directly perceive through one of the corporeal senses. We do.. .and we are. But not nearly enough. Think long and hard about what that means... and how the insidious nature of climate change, moving apace slower than the daily tactile experience, becomes GW's greatest weapons against us - our own apathy. While it erodes vitality ...we adjust. More erosion... more adjusting... So long as that adjusting doesn't interfere with our daily ways and means ... our corporeal senses aren't witnessing a gray-green Hollywood Tsunamis tilting up the horizon, or a continuous lightning producing 10 mile high global Haboob, and we're just too easily inclined to rest in our laurels and assume things will always work out like they always do. Until, it erodes the final piece in some other major inextricable factor and you're left without a recourse. Probably ... a complete phytoplankten species collapse and the ocean's failing to aerate the planet with breathable air ... [ enter myriad of not-impossible-sci-fi-plots here ] You know, the Noah's Arc parable escapes people ...? The hidden moral to that story is what always mattered, not the absurdity of building a boat to house a male and female of every species in order to repopulate the planet. I mean, ... duh. Beyond the obvious logistical impossibility, which precedes the story its self, no. It's about not laughing in the face of, or at, danger... It's about not being complacent. Abstractly, about not procrastinating simply because you are comfortable now. In that story, the townspeople ridiculed in derisive humor while Noah's dogged determination persevered through it all.. And his boat bobbed along side the bloated corpses ... Okay, so this ending is embellished... I'm not even religious, at all really...

Mm... not sure to whom you are directing this... But, ... the period in question deals with establishing an "above normal" regime... or not, I don't believe anyone questioned summer in July

I like the idea ... You delved more into possible causality then I, but however we get there, ... 'shutting off the meridional' thing is critical in my estimation. And it's not so much meridional per se. it's just that for whatever reason, meridional has doomed eastern N/A this spring. I see the impending zonal flow that's getting pretty solid consistency as a plausible attempt to signal that ending... I could certainly be premature in that assessment, but, like I said, it's a fairly robust signal at both agencies ..CDC/CPC, and the operational tenors are strongly hinting. I'm also seeing subtle 'oddities' about our climate that suggest we may be turning into new paradigm ... Not saying no more snow folks... But, perhaps faster than some think or would like to admit, too. One doesn't not have to search long and far for evidence. The web? Yeah, ..it's incredible useless these days ...as every podunk immoral a-wipe imaginable has in greed multitude managed to turn it into agenda powder keg .. in not a click-a-mouse for petty profit.. Makes it hard to glean veracious information. But, there are source out there nonetheless... and they discuss peer reviewed sciences regarding species migration ... or in weather/climate its self, the increased 20" snow event frequency ... increasing +SD dew point days...etc etc... These are all concomitant with warming climate.

1 false 2 tentatively true 3 tentatively true overall grade for interpretation/comprehension... D-

In all seriousness ...I'm beginning to suspect - well have for awhile - that we might end the month into early July on the hot side of normals. How far ...obviously, TBD But, the we are getting a persistent signal from the GEFs for mass-field changes .. in the less reliable PNA, but combinatory with the -NAO neutralizing gives that all a nod just the same. And with all the guidance' MJO curves showing some robustness in the right side of Wheeler, I think we could again be sniffing out a pattern modulation - but one that's oriented warmer. The previous changes modulated away from persistent cloud and low registry precipitation/ cool diurnals but milder nights hiding the misery of it.. .into a similar circulation construct, but just a warm variation. Which hasn't been bad for us since... We been enjoying nice weather as of late... Anyway, we see a 3 to 4 day zonal stint of flow across the conus and synoptic 101 is that zonal flows tend to proceed ridges...so seeing the extended Euro do so... and the la-la range GFS flirt with it may not in fact be bad fits.

well I'll be - ... if it ain't the Euro, with an actual Sonoran heat release beginning D 8.5 ...arriving in the upper OV D9 ..10 ... Could it be? The day that winter enthusiasts must report for their perennial prison term -

been perfect really ... for responsible perspectives, we had tepid swimming pool atmosphere over last weekend under surplus sun, then a beneficial rain earlier in the week ... Then yesterday, more utopia. Now, more beneficial rain...and tomorrow, modeled params point to more serenity in charm. It's the perfect balance of watering and life giving sun, in the absence of anything even remotely destructive. no one can complain. enjoy -

nah...usually in this sort of scenario the mid and high deck peals away associated with the loss of deeper UVM ... and as it does it either exposes low level butt pack ...or, it immediately fills in, but either way ... does so below the 700 mb dry intrusion. you have to wait for that wave of lp down the coast to move past your latitude and the winds come around and then might break up... probably times for about 8:24 pm

It's more than the mere showers you're characterizing ( why you do this .. who knows) ... but yes, less than inches. That simple... You can spin it to seem right if you want, but you are in some greater fraction also wrong -

Heh...that's looks like more than a few showers there in CT over the next couple three hours...

I see his point though ... I had this conversation with Ekster years ago...when the ETA was just becoming the NAM, how the model was kind of like a 'victim of its own success'. The problem with immense computing power operating on very small grid spacing ...means you're starting to tap into the uncertainty principle - as a metaphor. I don't mean really down at the quantum scales.. .but.. .in some ways, something similar happens. Just apply electrons to a system that 'predicts' based upon very finite inputs for finite scales, you end up with overly emphasized forces and factors that "giga" motion the system into unwanted results - in effect, you open Pandora's box of fractals. . Models can't ultimately predict the future? That's not really what's happening when the models are fired off... They are predicting likely outcomes, with ever decreasing probability for success in doing so at that, for every quantum instant of time that elapses further and further into the future. But the actual reality of the future cannot really be ascertained without actually being in the future, because of mercurial nature of ( almost ) unavoidable chaos. By the time we get to day fives, we're ...I dunno somewhere in the 40th to 60th percentile for success, and it's dependent upon the 'stability' of the pattern at hand there. Day ten? Forget it... 10 maybe 20% tops.. Which means, by those deeper range time spans the unpredictable, unknowable future circumstances that emerge along the way ( chaos ) have corrupted the futility of models down to guess work, all but entirely. There is a theoretical limit to that success rate. Models can max out. We're not there yet. But techniques, such as ( maybe ) the Euro 4-d normilzation schemes, which are remarkably successful at picking and choosing those spontaneously emergent distractions that need to be 'canceled out', can be applied to models with NAM-like finite grids. Who knows..just spit-ballin' there. But there's room to improve ... and all those improvements combined, we'll never get 100% accurate at some theoretical limit, because ultimately ... the uncertainty of chaos cannot be preordained. The only way to do so ... as hinted by that parenthetical 'almost' above ... is to control the future. Science fiction ...for now. But, if there can be conjured technology that governs the quantum momentum state of every particle that embodies the fluid medium of the atmosphere, sufficiently that it suppresses "butterflies" .. then you don't have to predict the weather: the solution is, push this button if you want a sunny day. But you know what's funny ...? In a philosophical sense, even in such a fantasy futuristic world, there is uncertainty in a system that 100% capable of modulating the weather. Because there's no guarantee that the operator won't be influenced by either a foreign agent, or lapse into some sort of psychosis that entices him/her to push typhoon buttons. God have mercy on those souls in that realm of existence.

Hm .. the former GFS had multiple biases, each one could skew reality in their own right and at times mimick the other bias' ... at other times, offset. Really frustrating that way... For example, the model's progressive bias - it ablates the tops of ridges down too quickly in the mid range. This has feed backs that cause new errors... for one, ends up increasing confluence over eastern Canada ( just one example in many ...), which then we have overly strong BD/west moving CAD signals... That is a cold bias result, in a model with a warm boundary layer problem. Zoink There's other areas where is seems to contradictory bias its self... Maybe that fooled the testers/QC evaluators ( ha ha...kidding here) because between heat wave boundary layers of 114 F at Nashua NH, while given least excuse imaginable to snow in D.C. from a BD cold air mass in July ... you end up with the right temperature for NYC. Yea ...see? good model.

It'll be interesting to see if that general rain with embedded downpours over N. NJ clips CT or not..

Agree ... Like I said earlier, Euro may be too anxious to sans the blocking tendency we've enjoyed since circa March. It's been a crushing 70 days of -NAO tendency...the likes of which I don't think I've seen since perhaps late Novie thru early Jan 2004 ... Only happening as precisely and exquisitely wrongly timed for summer enthusiasts.. .ha wah wah - Anyway ... the Euro's been bucking for much less blocking now some six cycles and counting... Even despite the D10 cold front ( which looks dubious for other reasons) on it's 12z run is doing so in a neutral NAO (hint) ... at this time of year, I'd like to see actually more -NAO for a front that cleaning...

I have the PDF demo for it but the site says it exceeds the file size limit. Pretty comprehensive comparison.

Right ...right... It's all clear now -

There's Navier-Stokes based fluid mechanics and themodynamics... Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the "James-Kevin" equation -

It is a model as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between accuracy and fiction, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the model of imagination. It is an area which we call the miss-guidance zone.

The Euro's been onto this for a while - speaking to the straw man in the room... The GFS operational on the other hand, it keeps doing everything least imaginable to sop heat from gettting north of the 40th latitude ... particularly as those regions pertain to the northeast regions of U.S. and SE Canada, all f'n spring. It's like it's been stuck stubbornly in February. Thing is ...I'm not really prepared to completely deny it's current cooler eroding of ridges to be honest. It's been a blocky spring ... so the GFS has been sort of right more than less. Whenever the GFS creates another blocking nodes say ... north of James bay, its westerlies suppress south underneath, and that ablates the ridges.. which sends an ensemble line of warm scouring cfropas ..if not BDs our way, and that seems to have really verified as the predominating signal since March. The GFS continues to ignite blocking nodes up north over Canada and throughout the Greenland rough lat/lons... consistent with the -NAO, notwithstanding east or westerly biased limb. Euro on the other hand is presently indicating less blocking .. In fact, not really characteristic of that season long persistent trend? That trend denial... it probably shouldn't bode too well for warmth and summer enthusiasts over the next 7 to 10 days ... but, it doesn't mean the Euro should be summarily counted out. The GEFs NAO curve is finally elevated at both agencies... It may be a sign that the GFS is holding out too long too. I think it's worth the conversation because one model is more temperately characterizing with changeability ...70s...to low 80s with convection chances... While the other model has more of persistent summery look evolving, with multiple days in the mid or upper 80s.

sure does... I almost wonder what/if the phase-diagram might look like outta Fl state ... Like, do the bubblets try to meander tauntingly toward the warm core quadrant for a jiff...

Oh you don't have to remind me... I was one of the ones pointing that out - the MOS was doing it all spring. But there is a difference here.. Namely, the pattern is seasonally normalized quite a bit, by way of having moderated the heights upward unilaterally ...though still with some similar blocking constructs continuing - tru. But it is different, so I'm not sure if that 'correcting behavior' still going to take place given the newer regime. We'll have to see.. btw, ... for how little it is worth the extended Euro came in with the onset of the seasons for pan-eastern U.S. heat wave. 20 C 850s everywhere with clear heat-feed-back geopotential ridge dome blossoming. Obviously it's eye-candy for summer/heat enthusiasts but... This run is the fourth cycle in the row where it doesn't really get cool beyond this week's shenanigans. This may be what folks are seeing/exaggerating, in observing that general panache. But beyond D4 this is a warm-ish looking run. Not willing say how warm...just talking synoptic polish -

Actually ... in Kevin's defense there is something showing 85 to 90. The GFSX MOS FIT N/X 52 82| 51 66| 52 71| 50 84| 64 88| 68 86| 67 88| 65 55 78 BDL is also coming in with 8 to 10 over climate for D4, 5, 6 and 7, which is actually increasingly more difficult for this particular product due to climate normalizing for those ending days there. In fact, I'd go so far as to say these numbers look warmer than the synoptics would suggest. Interesting

This is true down our way, too.. Big one's. Like they brush against your forearm while keying the front door at dusk and it's a race.. But they have weight.. I mean, you can feel them brush. Long striped legs hangin' precipitously while probing in the air to target their syringe. I'm thinking that we had that ephemeral dry couple of years and that might have helped keep the population down. But, though we didn't have a lot of snow below NNE latitudes ... central, we did get lots of rain this last winter, Now the wet spring and verdant environment is giving them a comeback. I don't know but can't really even be outside when it's calm and mild between 6-9 pm now or you're getting pin-pricked all over.

Right right ... and the expression "nothing saying that" could not possibly be related conceptually to, "not high confidence" in the first place. I mean.. this is dumb, provincial nimrod pettiness to begin with but still... - it really is fascinating actually watching information as it is getting distorted through one's preferential lens. Completely elides qualifiers. Master of ripping out of context to promote an alternate fact - Fact of the matter is, he's a good-hearted troll. Always has been. He's doing it on purpose

Yup .. as part of the "temperatre summer" definition... we should get periods of corrective instability ... warm rolls in...overrunning this... might or might not wedge in before cfropa boomers...rinse repeat