Typhoon Tip

uh I dunno I suspect we see this sort of thing in the D8-10 ranges out of the GGEM and Euro ..but they keep ending up correcting to more NW trajectory over the mid latitude continent as those days get more 5-7 ..and on and so on..

The operational - one might think - must be a southerly outlier by some ...

hah...wow... I love how the Euro has it going over 80 F on D10 in the greatest warm frontal intrusion since a laundry scene outta Shawshank Redemption

It did cross my mind a couple hours ago honestly haha But, I don't know/think this is much of an analog - I'll have to take a look at the NCEP library and maybe study the UKMET and Euro - ..seeing as these have now acted like 'Johnny come lately's showing up and bullying the show away from the Para G ... 'Hey, look what we think!' ... which was the first to hone this specisivity during a generally favorable 'super synoptic' era we've frankly had signaled since the end of September ( imho ..) .. But yeah, 2005 was a compact 45 unit v-max that was so extreme over a small area, the whole system ( also a fast mover...) really fit inside "meso-beta" scale - sort of a derecho sized cyclone with an excessive graphical zenith in power. It folded the troposphere ... it's dated enough now that it may be worth it to discuss - that was extreme stratospheric entrainment event, with a huge surplus of very dry lower stratospheric air sucked into the gravity well along the back side of the wind max, and when that mixed with the saturated backside of the CCB and really created a huge downwelling wedge of gravitationally accelerating atmospheric weight... See you later Cape Cod! boom... 110 mph wind gusts I think? But ... the sun set was visible. the whole thing was 6 hours out here in interior eastern Mass, and we actually saw the sun set, with 12- 15" of new snow and people wandering around looking at the sky dazed and confused...

Something like that... In this case, it's really the very powerful Q-G forcing nosing over the Bite region S of LI...and that UVM forcing triggers a redevelopment back SW along the baroclinic axis.

Sometimes this happens... If we're going to dump over the threshold into an exotic SD scenario ... usually the conventions fly out the door and the region just gets the shit kicked out of them. This "could be that" - ... having it got to lightning and thunderclap, blue-tinted dusk in 5-7" of parachutes, then...fast clearing by 9pm with starlight radiational crazy glue dymonds - I just friggin joked about that ..I think to "Hoth" ? ... now the Euro tries to do that exact joke ? I'm heading out for a lottery ticket... lord

OH my yes ... lol. But yeah... I mean, we're prior to Novie 1 and counting pennies at all is like celebrating a million bucks 30 years ago - enjoying the modern era anyone ? It's a HUGE relative win getting an inch ... let alone, there still some option on the table for more is only enabling avarice - just sayn'

And so it begins... ...the Euro crosses that critical temporal window where contrary to recent popular voice it tends to lay down the law ...and sees this, which is has been in play ( frankly ) for days - ... something's likely out of this. Sorry I think we just went to yellow - ... still can't get detailed but present take -away is > 50% for transitioning system into a colder profile -

get used to it .. .. maybe i mean , that sort of open screaming UVV explosion is a N-stream typology and I think one that could typify this winter. I could see us getting an assortment of clipper/M-b type upper MA/NE specials this year... just sayn'

...said the Woolly Mammoth lol 'it would suck to be encased in flash permafrost before even finishin' this cud'

just off the cuff observation on this chart ... probably? we wouldn't get that thing under in that geometry and speed max without generating thunder claps in a narrow band somewhere a click or two latitude N side of that kink ... That's a whopper frotogen look there...

yeah... re the phasing - I still see this as a fascinating exercise in the models attempting to do so through an unusually narrow N-S region of the hypsometric medium. It's a fast flow/progressive scenario with superb timing - which is crucially the handling that needs to be done the right way to get to these solutions... if the south outpaces the north just a little more it's ripped open ravioli - That UKMET solution is an NJ Model bomb technically ... as is the GGEM trying to move in that direction - ... NJ model lows tend to affect narrower regions but this one also has a smearing into NN because there's jet enhancing in the N stream ... lot happening there

thx!

yeah no ...recently posting demo's the consensus on this... Just personal experience says no and the data at 1,000 K high, pure Earth ORH ( meaning not weirdly polluted by favoring either way...) shows the noise of it - see Will's post.

Tam' ..it doesn't 'really' work anywhere - hahaha

heh... like we're saying, it looks noisy - there may be some super structure there ... check back in with us in 100 year's worth of substantiated data - but by then we won't exist because of Climate change so what's the point... lol

Aside from the fact ... and obvious, how does a geographical area tantamount to a pin prick on the fabric of space-time scale statistically guide the Universe - LI ??? really - it's meaninglessly tiny ... wtf - I mean just don't. Stirring or not, one just abases themself - But also, lucky for him ...the models don't have much snow on LI.. In fact, given the narrow corridor in which this whole thing mechanically plays out...it could snow 9" in S Vt. ...2" at Tolland, and 0 on LI and still be within a fair framework of being successfully forecast - so he's safe. I don't see a lot of "blue" QPF down there anyway .. a little, but that's white rain even in the Para G where that is.

Oh just leave it... it's funny -

Yeah...I don't believe so? But Will/others are at mastery of this/that I bet they've got some insights... I'm just basing it anecdotally and existential which of course carries a modicum of assurance risk - hahaha

Lol ... btw... I didn't write the title of this thread - it was done so on my behalf ...it's all good - but, for the record, I do not believe the October thing is really true - ... not until we have a bigger sample size. Fact of the matter is, the orbital perspective is both favorable and hostile to winter odds. Since 2000... we have been in an era - in general - that favors earlier cool snap... Packing pellet, virga -exploded CAA cumulous and/or outright snow supporting synoptic air masses have become far more commonplace than prior to then... Yet, in this time span, we have had both good winters and bad winters ... down-time of said Fall seasons - I think that is the take away? It's really noise - but ...hm, we are human we can remember 2011 probably more clearly do to the acute irony lol

..ah, very vestigial ... it's just imho but ...I see that kind of cane-fusion mania as a modern model propensity to do this in the autumns.. moreso an artifice of modeling, in other words. I've been harping ... perhaps annoyingly ( lol ) but since the late 1990s, when model resolution and total platform expansion and ensemble this and all these different physics go involved, and then the temporal ranging of modeling really fell over the distant horizon, we've been seeing these exotic time range virtual plausibility scenarios like that. That's A B ... I think this 'potential' - already in place and thus humbly I suggest is already successful as early recognition we made awhile ago - is really based on a recognizing something else entirely than modeling behavior. I think it reflects a model hemispheric change in transition seasons, and I hypothesize it has to do with velocity in the westliers being augmented - and that is driving NE Pac tipping flow/ continental folding of patterns earlier in autumns ... This is causing cold loading events in the Canadian shield. I don't know if this is climate change -related... ? It's a fantastic question but...it could also be part of the multi-decadal Arctic Oscillation curve, which I believe reasonably well positively correlates with the PDO/AMO and the Solar Cycle... All three of these overlays show they tend to move together, and they all flag -EPO and -NAO/ flipping these neggie - The interesting aspect is that the NAO has been lagged and/or retardedly out of sequence ... but therein' is the velocity saturation in the flow...I think it is stretching the field and the NAO is fragile compared to the majestic Pac domain region and the latter I think denies the former it's blocking at times...when the flow is fast and that is favoring/sending a progressive signal down wind of the Pacific maelstrom. ...it's a lot of intuitive jargon and supposition - not averring this is 'the way of the world' just some thoughts.

Yeah... as an aside ... we seem to be in an era where ( perhaps 'synergistically' ) anomalous results are more so favored. It's interesting... but the word "anomalous" means whatever's in question is an expression of Standard Deviation, which should be rarer by convention. But what it is, is that we are emerging out of a period of relative predictability and climate quiescence...and perhaps indicative of a changing climate; these sort of things or more likely to occur moving forward. We have to remember ...statistics are based upon what has happened, and then we base a prediction/ .. event on that data set, but that by virtue of being in stable past, means that it may also be illogical to apply said data set to the present or future - But blah blah ...I just wanted to say that ... it could "powder" out ... It could - I don't think so? but it could ...because sometimes if/when an event is going to just pour over an SD threshold it just goes ahead and hammers the location completely out of whack to really put stank on it... So yeah, it's the end of October - we 25 F in aggregates getting even small of all things. But even in 2011 event, it was hard to get "that" kind of snow going and it's more likely this wends its way into a 31.5er if we really get to a synoptic event. I'm sure you/we all know this stuff..just sayn'

That's a great QPF impression of where the mid level frontogenic forcing is located... as at the time of this frame, there is a lagged mid level just max nosing N of that llv baroclinic wedge along where the cyclone is nodal... But that is UVM driving lift up the frontal slope aloft and causing that subtle magenta tinting heavy snow band to spill out along that axis there in interior SNE... It's not a declaration/ .. forecast for that to actually occur, just what the model is illustrating/ physical plausibility of the virtual event it creates. But, this sort of phenomenon DOES happen sometimes... and warm ground or not, if such a band evolves that probably 3 solid hours of S+ there and thunder clap or two as well, you'd be accumulating - probably it ends with glops clopping off the off trees and powerlines... and then star lit late evening we actually cement things over night.... crazy - but ... timing wins with that cold air availability working under "mid level magic" as it were

mm... not that same phenomenon - keep tryin' lol no I get what ur saying but exciting to cover the first is an entirely different phenomenon. It won't ( for me ) languish moods if it doesn't work out - because there is no codependency on it to modulate one's sense of well-being ...It's part of the psychotropic e-addiction problem in society/ civility regardless, covered recently in documentary et al - this isn't just me ...where people are depending upon positive feedback in a soulless society of shallowing narcissists... sounds like a good 'cultural implosion' model for a Sci Fi novel but tho I take liberties ( poetically ) in that description, the problem with personal reliance on the web for both re enforcing personally ideologies, to creating 'faux happiness' was covered in 60-minutes, and it documented elsewhere and is real - again..it's not just me. Although..I started noticing this phenomenon 10 years ago prior to it's popularization in marginal observation sciences... Anyway, I don't wanna derail this ... It's exciting to cover the season's first multi-faceted synoptic event ...nothing more.

Probably the 1 to 1.5" of strat cool moderate banding QPF rain helps more .. but any transition to snow would be wet and will contain a decent water content so it all helps to bring Humanity back from the dessicated brink of mortality ...