Typhoon Tip

Yeah... that's a good point actually - in the spirit of it ... doesn't this wind bomb earlier today qualify as "In like a Lion" ??

It's like how do trees and plant life even grow in NE Mass... I learned that crash course in 1984 ...when I moved to New England with family back then, Rockport Mas. We arrived mid summer the previous year so it wasn't as noticeable. The following April comes around... fog. Fog fog...more fog. Sun comes out.. Finally! It warms up, but 11:45 am, ice wind comes in, 64 to 38 in 30.1 seconds flat.. more fog - ahhh, not sure I like this, began to cross my mind. One Saturday I went down to watch my uncle''s softball game in Danvers... It was 70 F there. Sweet was the air in maple tree blossoms. Green grass in the ball park, and you could smell the 'melon' tones of it having just been groomed. In fact, the air carried the aromatic smell of land lover's warm season along with all these smells of brighter side of life. For the first time in my life I actually appreciated small swarms of gnats behind people's heads. Different energy... Back across the bridge into Cape Ann and by the time we arrived home... 44, with the deliciously life giving pall of low tide hanging in the air. I definitely decided that I didn't want to live like that. We moved to Acton later that summer ... I do miss the pier life.. The boat shoes and the smell of lobster steamers. The over-shoulder seagull whine as though asking me to liberate some of my bagel. The sound of harbor bells. Actually, in the winter itself there is a kind of ghostly value in serenity about that setting up there ...when the whir of polar marine wind is harmonic around telegraph poles and wires lining the shore roads.. It's a cultural acceptance - you cross the bridge on Yankee Division Highway ... cast no illusions over self that you are not in Kansas anymore, ocean meets land is beautiful.. It smells like oyster poop and salt nuclei, and if the breeze is blowing right from the down town... maybe the occasional waft of elephant ear fried dough ... If one accepts the marine life, there is no ruptured expectations ... and its charm gathers its own value - and you can grow to miss that, given how time manufactures nostalgia. I still would only return for small doses though.. Knowing it's an option is good enough for me..

It's actually a good point, Will - for all my protestations over this warm up happening - this region of the planet is always prone to that ... This little micro spring climate gets left out of the larger look even when it's warm overall - it's like ones pattern recognition verifies from their prison cell -

Sorry to ask just curious what the pathogenicity is really like with this thing and first hand accounts are interesting. I mean with these masks and shit... ugh. This has got to stop - despite illness and losing smell/taste ... fact of the matter is, no part of human evolutionary passed set us up to endure this forever- I think we're seeing soft revolt across society. Vaccine is coming just in the nick of time. I mean they were 'alleviating restrictions' at state scales not two or three weeks past the monster winter spike in cases, when contrasting...not two or three weeks after designation of Pandemic by the WHO a year ago Decemeber ...all of civility as we know it shut down tighter than a bull's ass at fly time. If anything, post said winter spike we should have been seeing tumble weeds in the streets with weeds growing out of parking lot cracks, industry silenced...and the sounds of bird of pray resonating through the skies... That sort of bending away from commitment to the cause ...that's a way of evolution sort of tapping all this on the shoulder I think - interesting... Anyway, with the vaccine - especially the single dose rollout ... 150 million Americans should be immune by April 10 ( check that...that might have been revised), and that's half the population ... herd immunity has got to be sooner than we think, and the "emergency" status lifted - there's hope now folks I have a friend ..close friend that is a father to two adorable 4 and 6 year olds, wife, home...in the thick of early parenthood and very typically cautious. Masks... hand sanitizing... limiting public exposure ... distancing. Darted trips out for sundries and groceries... the whole thing. COVID-19 strikes... What he did have was a myopically self-centered boss and owner of small company who is ... in my estimation, a sociopath. I mean, he kept it from his staff that he had been exposed to his nephew, when he went to some family thing and the nephew got sick with it ... some two days later. Which means ..everyone that was there at that gathering needed, by behest of common f'ing knowledge ( this all happened just last month) be quarantine and all that ... Didn't do it - kept it to him self. Boss gets it... dominoes through much of his staff. He put his business interest- welfare and his legacy before the health and safety of his employees... At some point ... shouldn't that be like 2nd or 3rd degree criminally liable ? I mean ... if you walk into a party and poor toxin into the punch bowl ... that's 1st degree premeditated... Walk into the party and intoxicate the air with your bio-phage ... what's the f'n difference? Anyway, he wore masks at work... and they did social distancing ... still wasn't enough to stop him and few of his colleagues from suffering their boss' self-centered 'wrath.' He's a non-confrontational type... He only mentioned it softly to his boss that his kids and wife were exposed ... They all got it. The two kids and wife self-resolved at home inside of a week - that seems to be the common experience from what I am gathering from others, too. He ended in the hospital for 3 days, though on a banana-bag. It seems that's what this is all about - not knowing who is going to self resolve on the couch in a four days, and who is going to need the banana bag ... or worse yet, intubation Afterward, his boss acted blase about ... glib - just like a sociopath would. Friend is quietly looking for a new gig.

It could not be more painfully obvious these GFS models struggle with modulation or awareness ( somehow ...) going from cold --> warm d(seasons) physical forcing ... It seems to diminish the the seasonal intake that is integral at point of ingest/initializations ... over the course of the runs. Removing heat/diabatic hemispheric forcing like it assumes it error or something... By D7 .. 10, it has all been removed .. asymptotically. By D12 ...forget it - It's why I wonder if this warm up next week might be bigger when it is at hand ..because it will no longer be processed through the GFS' 'season change vaccine'

I know ... I mean it's not even for loathing winter and wanting spring and all the babble bs... the model will f'ing do this in July if it can - it's like it was engineered by climate deniers trying to hide from global warming by running a version that provides an alternate cold biased world. haha Is this really the "organic" physics at work? if it is ...those need better peer reviewal...

Curious ... do you know where you most likely were exposed with the fateful dosing ?

The EPS may not concur - ...but the GEFS telecon layout is very warm actually ... I mean, considering there is antecedent and ongoing La Nina framework in the hemisphere - that I argue is also modulated by HC expansion headaches... ( yet another diatribe).. that lends a nod to warmer looks. Blocking really should be extinguishing ... The GEF -based AO does briefly dip to neutral over this ensuing week, but with extreme rapidity ...it about faces and does one of those towering Matterhorn rises to some +5 SD toward the Ides of the month. If: - the NAO does wobble around positive while that is happening - the PNA does actually slope off toward negative also nearing the 15th.. we could be 80 ... That all translates to at minimum, a longitudinal ridge expression and possible laminar straight-like W-E flow orientation along the 50th parallel exiting the Maritimes... That's how we've had warm blasts in Feb and March's since 2010 ...some of which did make 80+ ...etc... it's not like it's unprecedented in recent climate. And this all appears to portend that at minimum, a substantial warm up is gaining confidence. I think we see this inch just a bit more in that favor. The EPS may or may not agree ...

I've been calling it a 'pinch-low' ... Heh, you won't find it in the AMS Glossary or anything. A fragment of internal monologue that always sounds off when I see the following: It gives the effect of pinching off the trough and a quasi or outright closed low results often when that happens. In spring more frequently, when the flow surrounding a trough abandons it at a faster rate than the wind max at the bottom of the trough can lose it's momentum ... Hopefully, that above series of annotated charts (ICON) more than less demos that... ...I'd expect that progresses seaward regardless of model. The longer term progressive tendency is rooted in super synoptic structures and physics that ... requires another dissertation to plumb those concepts and no one reads with that much passion so - ... Beyond that, it is hard to say if the consensus that has recently emerged for a significant warm up/warming pattern among the guidance/cross-guidance ... is a seasonal thing, or just a warm pattern in a late winter circulation that might ultimately settle back into some ... diabatically mutilated sun-variant of tortured winter that won't give up. I know that some people will "choose" to interpret that in either direction LOLI still think at some point the might see a warmer spring ... whether that materializes sooner or later.

It's real and it's fast given the right circumstance, tho. Not sure I'm in the 'eh' camp on that one given these metrics in play. Sub rates depend very specifically upon wind and DP depression ... It might be an interesting to lab that out... Lay-in a fragile 1/2 " of differentiating ratio snow ending in the 20:1 range. Then whirl 50mph routine wind currents over it with a -20 DP depression air mass ( which looks ~ to what happened overnight). Mm.. I suggest a lot evaporated too - I'm sure you are correct that it blow around as well - figure out how much went into which physical process.

It goes against La Nina spring climate... but, climate is like Laws; they are meant to be broken so that the circumstances that led to the perp's motivation vs the Law its self can be examined as a means to test the Law's underpinning humanitarian philosophy of/as applicable - LOL Seriously, that product is a 384 hour mean - about the best we can glean from that ( we can't glean anything deterministic of course...) is that a few members have to be rather robust with the western ridge/ eastern trough, typical R-wave coupling tapestry in order to move the mean that far into a vestige of that construct. I betcha ... wouldn't it be neat if the return rate on anti-correlated La Nina Marches actually "by coincidence," equalled the % of present EPS members that trying to indicate that at this time.

Nice knowin' ya, kid

Anecdotally ... just from my existential/personal accounting and memory ... this 'might' have busted Advisory by perhaps 10 mph in mean momentum. Prelim - We'll have to go back and review specific AFD content from surrounding offices, but the distribution of headline/Advisory packaging... this appears to be a classic expose' in the uncertainties and difficulties predicting wind. This warranted a Warning for most. The criteria appears to have been met, ...yet regionally: Advisory - It's not a knock or criticism... it's an observation that requires followup. I was wondering when I saw it modeled, differential CAA in tandem with plummeting 498 dm height well hanging over KFIT by 12z ...just how we would get that much plumbed out of the atmosphere without turning things over quite a bit ... In the 10 years I've lived ( longer than I ever intended to..) in the township of Ayer, Ma, I can say that last night's creaking walls and low decibel thump sensations resonating through this home, while jet-liner back-wash so loud that I had to turn in my sleep ...if not admit to some apprehension at times, rivals any wind event across that decade of time. I do not possess nor know where to find specific wind accounting for Ayer Ma, but wouldn't be shocked if it was the highest sustained and gusting combination. I did not lose power - prooobably that's more a function of less air foiling suspended by barren foliage and wind from a 2ndary prevailing direction - those two factors allow force dissipation of course... blah blah. It's why SE gales sometime are more prolific root ball lifers and grid problem makers, because the wind is going against the kitty's fur - Anyway, subtle but interesting positive wind bust - probably unnoticed by J.Q. Public because believe me...only we in here and lawyers differentiated between Advisory and Warnings - lol

probably sublimationg too - direct to WV ... due to advection/turbulent mixing of ultra dry air that flooded in on the heels of that amorphously defined arctic boundary

Boy ... days 7 thru 10 make that annoying bullshit out there worth it ... that’s gonna both eradicate the snow and tinge the cut fields green by the end of that. Signal gaining weight ...finally operational run that’s catching up to the telecon spread. Way out there tho ... but that is right in the falling PNA window and the NAO’s rise entering week two so it does have the table set Just gotta get past that pinch-low in foreground I’m ready. Pandemic imprisonment and no chance for snow in March becomes cruel and perhaps this is a merciful lord nah-

For spring/ warm enthusiasts ... this 18z run bucking for a D9 run at 75 ... At the time of this west Caribbean conveyor arcing all the way up, there is an intense eastern/SE ridge with 582 dm hgts nearing NYC over top this subtropical connection... Anyway - probably has about as much chance at verifying as a D9 bomb would but for those on the other side of the track, you'll start seeing this more and more...

Hey George ....

Well... some good news? I know the spring/warmth enthusiasts in here are marked with red wax like an apiary zoologist doing anti-social research ... ( lol ) and I wear my honesty on my sleeve - I'm one of them. But hey, y'all know I'm a winter enthusiasts from October 15 until March too ... I'm just equally into summer's all Anyway, the 12z Euro tries to warm things up again in the D6+ ... it kept trying to push that out every run - I joked about earlier but in truth. This run seems to have picked up as though those interceding delay runs didn't happen. The D8 is now door-stopping a warm front at 12z that day... So... maybe a 2 or so day of spring out there.

It might be my fault I had a knee jerk thought that it may come back ...the old ' lost for several cycles routine,' and the 00z Euro has a 'subtle' tease backward with that thing too... etc... It was a like floating a lit match over perfect fume concentration - BOOM that contiguous run-on paragraph exploded into emergence like literary bombogenesis - just waiting for an excuse to blow the roof off this party He's just enthusiastic and unrestrained - good kid I'm sure.

Bit of an on-line cultural shift over the years. Earlier in this 25 years of internet era ... people were apprehensive by lacking familiarization.. but that familiarization has long become intimacy-with-the-web, by the vaster majority of populous by now - no doubt. Along with that... People have become brazen ...using it for personal exposure for many different motivations...etc.. Unfiltered opinion advancement that is fringe for either quantifiable reasons, or just down right 'not sounding right'? That comes with that culture change. Now it's an expose' for people that probably would make for good fiction writers given the right encouragement and instructive guidance- haha. More freedom of expression certainly sounds good on paper. Catch-22 ( seems I'm saying that a lot today ) because the fact of the matter is... it is morally superior NOT to suppress people. Back when Eastern was in its hey day, I got the feeling they/we benefited from not having to wade through banana bomb posts to get to ... lucidity. They also had less reason to change because they were sort of having an 'island control,' by virtue of their popularity draw. They had like 10,000 members...? Obviously not all on at once. Ha, we know what happened to the site when even a fraction dumped in all at once... Anyway, the ongoing atmosphere back then was bit too tightly constrained for all that, for a coupe reasons. One, people just wouldn't dare. They didn't risk appearing unsophisticated/ over ebullient yokel-like in visions in grandeur - "bunning" was actually eschewed and dreaded even. Wow have things changed in this new atmosphere ... Now...? it's a joke - people like try to earn buns on a goof. "Ha ha go ahead a bun me" - I'm sure I'm getting one just for mentioning this...Lol... But the other reason that same culture was also built into the moderation - even if it did seem a bit fascist at times. I remember when this site first launched and I came in here ... I started posting like I always had out in the main forum arena, and was met with chillier silence. At first I thought it was just the bigger draw/new users. Unfamiliar alias/names meant a familiarization curve. But it was something else.. PM's began arriving from actual mods that were intoned like, 'who the f do you think you are' It was pretty coherently confrontational. I was taken aback. 'What the hell is this?!' I didn't really connect that this was not the same Kansas anymore ...haha... Took me a few weeks, too. But there really was a cluster of mods on a power trip - they brinked me to within inches from disappearing for good ( I'm sure y'all regret their failure ha... ) - titanic assholes of biblical proportion. It was figuratively "Internet Lord Of The Flies" for while. I don't know what happen to them? It is hoped they got cut loose but ..most likely they just lost interest and went on f some other aspect of their lives up ( we pray - ) I'm wondering again, sorry. Anyway, the filtering of old was both bad and good... It was bad for obvious reasons ... Freedom of expression for one. Any opinion capping, whether fearing ridicule from bully- trolls and ass hat elitism that way ... or institutional suppression using moderation to enforce what ultimately is protecting elitism... is still fascist and is bad ... There's no real upside in the long run. It probably just would have been a matter of time that another "Eastern" would have launched anyway, that was more free-spirited and unconstrained - if not here, there ... at which point the cycle of life would have vacated. Several years ago, I went back to that link and it was still active - like shell of the former realm. But, a little apprehension and sophistication is also good - the trick is in how to get there without being an asshole. You gotta encourage against unfiltered imaginative content that while plausible, is highly unlikely. Why not create thread that dumps automatically ever 50 pages, that is a repository for wild hypothesis -

Right... yup - my bad... NJ ... but yeah

I wonder if the March 9/10 ordeal may try to come back ... I could almost see it coming back - also - as a spring cut-off drifter over the W. Atl/ astride the EC ... too. I mean it's still way out there ...

Yeah...and it's layered - sorry I'm bombing you with replies ...just happened to be in the roulette timing right now .. lol But, I see this winter as being supplanted by the -AO ..which at times ...spanning some three weeks in late Jan into early/mid February... plumbed to -6! It was book-ended on the front end by another negative phase of its own; both of these nadirs negative towered some -4 to even -6 standard deviations. That is a helluva lot of implied exertion down to middle latitudes, ... I suspect in greater proportion modulating the hemispheric eddy into something that ... yeah, doesn't look like it was ENSO attributed. The problem is...with HC packed down underneath ( hyperbole..), that made for intriguingly weird scenarios where blocking rested at times over fast flow - that is a very highly unusual, and equally non-discussed characterization that took place a lot actually. But here's the 'layering' aspect. I don't know if merely removing the -AO would suddenly evince an underpinning La Nina characterization, either. We've had this discussion... I think the general even NON AO hemisphere ( as in normal boreal winter) heights .. pressing down upon the empirically proven expanding HC shit... that's been modulating ENSO 'efficacy' if you will in forcing .. even if we removed the AO I'm not sure the La Nina would be exposed because of the ongoing circumstance... I had mused/posited that the spring could flip more dramatically warmer ...at a minimum, definitively AN... whence the AO relaxed? That relaxation has come and passed and we are not seeing that happen. It's interesting... This La Nina is not interested in taking over...

Depends upon what one is using I suppose ... There numerical equivalence of the teleconnectors from CPC ... don't match the individual members If you go to PSU as a free, quick and dirty coarse review, and float your mouse over those members, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html, individually, they don't look as warm as a CPC index site. Yet the latter keeps signaling spring Frustrating... particularly for someone like me, that really would like to comfortably get out of the house. But I'm highly confident that is more ubiquitously shared. Longish post beyond this point ... It's not the same as that bag-o psycho babble aspect of being moody and emotively guided by the weather chart cinema - not even in the same concept. Different subject... Strictly, this year is particularly and uniquely challenging coming into dreadful New England "spring" climate... There are four season on the planet, and since New England has three ...clearly, we are in hell and not part of this planet. We have autumn, winter, Caligula torture .. terminating into a summer stolen down to 10 minutes. Seriously, it has to do with a more normal, human response in any scenario where personal freedoms are being affected - whether for virtuous cause and benevolence aside. This pandemic shit is imposing based upon a catch-22, philosophically. But that philosophy is a damned good one! We've spent close to a million years in human evolution ... where/when freedoms "inside our safe zones" did not include these masks ... nor distancing ..etc.. We are not intrinsically adaptive for not having processed through any 'Darwinian' crucible there in - in evolutionary time comparison, this is like the time it takes to pick up a hot handle. It is therefor not in our genetics - literally that is true. What we do is purely a cerebral move, one that proves human ingenuity/brain-trust ...probably higher sentience and 'awareness' in general, have all outpaced Nature's normal 'testing' process of adaptation. It's true across the board. From math to Mozart, telescopes to microscopes, Quantum Mechanics to General Relativity, Genetics research, to deep field Astronomical Sciences and back ...these 'achievements,' what we are now doing both to our selves and the total Earth "Gaia" ... they are inherently in conflict with the "rate" it takes to get adaptation through those Darwinian gates. Thus, self- imposed ( 'species' imposing in this context) limitations on personal freedom are still just limitations on personal freedom. At the instinctual level .. the virtuosity and "experimentation" that is felt utterly necessary ...all that, is in conflict - nothing else. You know... a million years of instinct momentum ... c'mon. It's obviously gonna win against the conceit of of these limitations ... That's why for this 'soft revolt.' ... You can see it in the way society is sort of turning nose from the subtle aroma of hypocrisy going on.. States began alleviating restrictions when this thing was like 10 minutes past that monster peak 45 days ago... etc ..etc.. People are getting more sick of it than that which they fear - that usually emboldens through anger ... The inevitable, systemic tough shitness modality takes place. People are going to get sick and die, but the majority won't and it's getting precariously close to a scenario where the instinct will supplant this ideology that we can win against a biological force that has had 3 billion years to perfect its self. That's what these variances are from - btw ... They are the virus fighting back through mutation ... Eventually, they'll figure out a combination of DNA codes that gets by any vaccine ''fire-wall" and we'll just go through this all over again... We vaccinate for the Spanish flu ....every year, anew. They are called genomic ancestors: Influenza-A and Influenza-B ... Coronavirus is not getting defeated ... it's changing into something else. But, the upshot there is that they usually mutate into a less virulent forms - it doesn't ultimately favor a virus' pathogenicity to kill the host. Anyway... it feels like the Rubin 'The Hurricane' Carter's story, where he was wrongfully imprisoned by systemic racism in southern cultural Law, and they stole like 40 years of his life ... and every time we wake up and that Euro has pushed that D9 warm up out another day, and held the trough back and inserted another ( non-entertaining...) -20 C 850 mb cold dildo instead, it's just another in the innumerable failed appeal processes that proved insufficient against the systemic racist. Finally, ... after his life was all be claimed, an appeal succeeded... I guess that's our 10 minutes of summer in this dark metaphor.

As a snap shot ? no .. obviously looking at that, it's well enough seawards to not matter. The risk assessing there at 162 hours out ... heh, it's close.