Typhoon Tip

It is improving... We'll see... I think the convective temperature is in 85 to 87 range - but don't quote me. ...

Agreed... I mean these models are almost down to the threshold of fractals for f* sake and that means a limitation on what they can do to ferret out "the future" - hint hint. If they were that good...everyone would be a billionaire. I'm being sarcastic a bit but in truth ... there is only so much we can do with 3km grids and PITA-FLOP computing power. Maybe in the future ( sci fi in coming...) there will be more proof and theorem about the quantum processes that coinstruct reality in the Cosmos... hence, knowing the future can be ascertained... But now is not it. Until that ...or any such time in which some other tech is brought to operations... I think if these finer meshed tools suggest convection in a meso-beta scaled region, and convection occurs... we'll leave to the exact size of a hail stone dent in Joe yuck-yuck's magic-bus up to the peregrinations of the gods.

Kidding with the 'early autumn' jest, of course... But, it it just seems the extended range modeling tenor, for much of the mid to end spring and now entering into summer times thus far, has been persistently collapsing the mids and extendeds into patterns that are not very well conformed to summer synoptics. Unsure why that is the case... Lord knows I have no shortage of hypothesis to explain why. This new rolled out version of the delux GFS is ( by the way ...) imho ... not a Good Forecast System. It should be dubbed the N-GFS. You can really see my personal frustration with this model ... illustrated via the comparison between its D6, ... against either the GGEM ( don't get me started on that model), the Euro, or both. The GFS ablates ...erodes... 'rasps' tops of ridge arcs down flat as a bias. iIn its defense... at any point-forecast in time .. it could certainly go onto win. But, this week's "possible" if marginal heat wave suffered in the GFS the whole way, and I feel pretty strongly that it is more likely so than less, related to it's heredity with longitude bias/stretching the flows in mid and extended ranges. It's always done this. The modelers ( to their supposed credit ...) probably don't go in and try to fix that specifically. That wouldn't end well ... to do so would probably gum up the works. The longer termed goal is to create a global forecast system that arrives to the right'est plausible picture, out in time, organically... Which is to say, just allow the physics to holistically perform. If they start parameterizing this, and using blind correction factors that ... that's bad for a lot of philosophical reasons. Anyway... I those imagaes above are not exactly showing an egregiously different appeal...but it's just enough to annoying. I also wonder about later in the summer, when the season really does begin to wane.

May be one in the same to suggest the following ... but our troubles for summer/heat enthusiasm run deeper than pool macro-cool mass-fields in Canada. Something is systemically off about the hemisphere.

Heh... I think model expectations for "exactitude" are too high if we're grading them as "on crack" ...when we had thunder/rains in the area, and model facets had that ... in the area... hello - Not sure what folks are thinking of the technology but ...eesh!

...It's one of the balancing/off-setting facets I thought of too... but I don't think so - The wind fields are light...like, not blowing anywhere. I think with sufficient heating we would be fine. The gradient is too weak for organized katabatic flow/drying and lee side trough focusing ... May not have helped shear requirements .. .but, the 'scouring' concern would be alleviated - Today is a cloud-deck butt bang. Nothing else. At least ...so far that is the case. We'll see going forward, but ... mitigation from lack of insolation will persist ...until the sky coverage begins to behave like the models suggested they would. Otherwise, bust - and it won't be because of any of the other reasons discussed heretofore, either. Like I warned yesterday ... SPC is cagey up our way for good reason. The environment goes out and for lack of better frustration ... creates reason not to get it done. We have a kind of curse micro climate of finding any plausible excuse not to convect - and doing that

If there's an EF4 tornado anywhere in SNE tomorrow the only similarity to 1953 it will have is that both happen to be rotating columns of air ...

I'm gaining interest... starting to remind me of last weekend - Saturday I think it was... We had some marble hailers around

hahaha...

Well... Wiz' raises a valid concern. just experience alone ... I can't count over the years how often I've seen a kind of "dry line" ( it's not... but it's a convergence trough with dry air on the west side not associated with an actual cold front ) that summarily then moves east across the area, whisking the theta-e east early... You spend the afternoon admiring the back wall of tropopausal poking CB's ...envious of Cape. Look at the charts? cold front is still way NW... what gives That's a geographic ( additional charm ) about this area, is that when there is a west or NW wind type warm sector, we get a lee-side veering of the wind.. It creates a convergence zone that extends from roughly HFD-MHT ... thereabouts ...with a line of towers. I have also seen it, however, where this pre- evacuates... you lull, and then the atmosphere recharges. Also, there are other factors.. Hill and mountain perturbation triggers can send storms SE ...and with synoptic accent increasing toward the end of the day, it's also not a big leap to see a second or even tertiary cluster get going from eastern NY thru western Maine.

okay? .. i would hope someone might...

yeah everyone's 90 down our way ... dps aren't a problem though - although someone will certainly attempt to claims so upon reading this...

wanna hear sumpin' funny ...? about eight years ago ... mm hm, eight, i installed in the bedroom upstairs. here's the thing, i never 'UN'installed in any of the intervening autumns or winters. left the unit in there. why? ...oh, the conceit of being a meteorologist of course. yes...that's right... i know better than the average shnook how to manage warm vs cool air - i'll show 'em. i mean, with warm air always ...always... always, perpetually exerting a buoyancy force pointed up, there's really no reason to remove a top-floor a.c. unit, because the pressure is always squeezing the atmosphere through the window - such that drafting doesn't really happen appreciably enough to matter. this was true... worked like a charm. year after year, including the cryo bomb years of 2013 -2015, i almost never felt even cool air coming through or around the a.c. unit. ...ah yes. benefits of a classical education... wrong! because.... one afternoon last august, ...i noted that the a.c. was sagging slightly as it was housed in the window. upon noticing...i also noticed a nasty hornet's nest filled with eggs and yellow-black striped migs with their big creepy compound eyes focused on me from the other side of the glass. as i moved my head back and forth... they shifted slightly...following my ever move with the precision of a high-grade military LIDAR installation... stingers cocked and ready and all.. it was like, 'red alert, red alert! he's found us' so as i stood there ... studying how to pest control out of that situation without a double-session with an epi-pen ...it occurred to me with a temple scratch, 'how the f* are they getting inside the glass in the first place. oh. right. must be the sag -' the unit was sagging on one side, and they were entering and egress through the gap to the outside that allowed on the one side that sloped down from the exterior storm window pane. very carefully, real, real slowly... i managed removed the a.c. unit. the migs did several recon flights inside the gap of the windows ...but, turns out, they're morons with tiny insect brains. because they didn't understand how to come around the other side to sortie me. phew! unfortunately however, this all revealed that the entire bottom of the window frame was gone! rot obliterated...it had fallen into the bowls of the wall...exposing the interior. and...the rot was starting to eat its way up the side frame pieces, too. you know that feeling when you turn white? like when you're a kid and a car honks, and you realize simultaneously that you are in the road and almost got hit ? 1,200 ... $ that's what it cost to learn that lesson that leaving a.c. units in an improperly housed window install.. can lead to a costly restoration. the condensation off the unit was pooling in the bottom of the window frame...and, because this house's upstairs windows were still circa 1969 standard storm and glaze ... there was no drainage channel ..so the water just ate everything. they had to get a raised platform outside of the house and replace some of the wall pieces ... which is why it cost that much... but hey, new window with a standard run-out drain... and it's all product that can't rot. what i really need to do is pony up 2,500 and do all the windows and update this bitch. jesus

well...all fun and games aside, it's hot here at mi casa - 91 appears to be the concensus/mean of Davis' within a couple three miles and judging by ambles around the yard and such, ...that's probably nuts on. normally i'm kickin' it in a typical env-controlled office, but working from home on friday's ...figures it would time for the first 90 of the year. basically ... it's hammock drowsy hot... it's making me wanna take a nappy wappy

Yeah...I took the bate for like 2 minutes of my life and bothered to open up NCEP weather-charts Library site. Only a very brief gander at the 1953 June 9--> 10 charts exposes either A, typical JB doing JB promotional propaganda ... or B, he's off. Either way...irresponsible. Low and behold, there's very little if any analog value there.

As an afterthought ... I wonder if this reverse in the winter with that thing -

It's interesting how disparate the operational GFS is relative to the Euro/EPS ... This is a circumstance of bad- cross guidance agreement. It has MOS struggling 86 Thurs ...otherwise, can't really get more than 3 clicks over climo through next week. To its credit, those numbers appear consistent with it's own synoptic handling. But, as I've been ranting about all spring and really have had no reason as of late to see the model as doing otherwise, it erodes ridges to much ...grinding them down with MCS vestige bullets, and/or with just some sort of thing where it just like sees the whole world through an optic lens that is distorted... stretched ( oh so slightly but enough..) in the longitudinal direction... That could account for limiting it's warm domes in its own rite.. but I am also noticing that there are these meso vort shrapnels peppering the ridge interfaces with the westerlies with these American guidance types .. Seems the NAM even does this a bit to tell you the truth. Get a load of that 200+ hour 'Day After Tomorrow' vortex over eastern Canada? Thing is...convection will create ripples and meso kinks ... some of which may indeed go onto to become players. I'm not sure how to pin-point which ones have that potential... and I'm not sure the GFS does either. Ha. It just takes the course of least regret and and grinds ridges down with everything it sees. Kind of makes sense ...with the Euro's 4-d smoothing operation designed to stop spurious amplitudes and so forth... it doesn't do that? -maybe that's it. I dunno.

It's futile aversion ... I know ... but I take issue with both.

I've been trying to explain this folks all week As others have likely noted by now, SPC's hand is forced and they've had to pull the trigger on at least Slight risk for tomorrow ... I personally think they do that grudgingly due to our separate little climate criteria of failure and always seeming to find the least plausible verification relative to input values ... Anyway, as you are now also elucidating, take the standard vector directions at all sigmas ...and rotate the total columns some 30 to 45 degrees; you'll end up with the same bulk shear - folks need to remember... the numerology doesn't care what direction, just that it hits the numerical correlations. I mean this is all predicated on the assumption that shear is an important metric in this particular evolution, which I think it is ... Without studying 10 soundings ( modeled input ), just the synopsis looks like a right exit jet acceleration occurs at mid / somewhat upper air late in the day, which means velocity/difluence increases rather abruptly toward late afternoon. Erstwhile, the day appears now ...given to model RH at ceiling heights, ...to be sufficiently open to allow enough insolation for significant heating. Theta-e .. check. DP appears to pool SE of ALB-RUT-CON with mid 60s... I'd actually be tempted to add a tick or two there, but the surface wind being more west-southwest may katabatically offset.... But that's minor. But again...I didn't focus on particular sounding details ...this is just using the synoptic inference/tech Anyway, I wouldn't surprised if we get Watched ..with even a category risk up tick from that. This has been flagged for a week's worth of modeling output... Remarkably stable in both time and space in the majority of guidance'

I think I figured it out ... Kevin represent the human form of the summer gremlin - the real target of y'all's resent. Contrasting,... as he's made it abundantly clear, in the summertime, he dreads winter and winter discussion ... which y'all become the human target for that side of the resent. That's why you take it personally and hover your finger over the mouse ready to click post the instant you see a cool(warm) height contour, upon every new model run that offsets the other sides ambition ... as though it was their fault it look ever looked hot(cold) depending all along ... Anyway, the 18z GFS is coherently warmer next week ...particularly beyond D5.5 or so .. which in fact looked more like the 00z Euro. I wouldn't be putting that 12z in Kevin's face - even though he needs the humility either way ... I mean it's all indicative of instability in the guidance and probably either side gets shirked -

Funny you leveled that comment there. I've been thinking about that expression lately, and how it may not be a long wait this year before we bona fide one. Ha, actually... the first requirement for verifying the bow shot is that we actually have to have sustained summer first. But, excluding the possibility that this is a Younger/Dryas summer during the inferno of GW for moment .... I agree with your thinking here, but also wonder if it may be a hemisphere that is more so being exaggerated by the GFS than it being wrong. It seems there is something legit about the scaffold of the flow structure and wanting that Maritime weakness to be a semi-permanent "negative node" if you will. I used the expression last week, for lack of better description... but I have noticed that even in the absence of a S/W transient in that region ( or cutting off for that matter ..) the flow just sags as a default. It's like more an absence of positive geopotential rather than a trough at times... if that makes any sense. But that might kick off bow shots earlier than normal... if the base-line keeps up.

A model with stretching bias does tend to ablate ridges on the northern arcs maybe? It seems it went out of it's way to do the same thing for this period and kept having to correct as we got closer. Could be remembering wrong... But yeah... it's like it's been this way for 18 months really ... now relaying into the same thing with this FV3 upgrade. Unremarkable run bias'

No... wave numbers increase in summer... Firstly, not sure what HM and the like are actually referring to/fro' but, R-wave numbers are identifiable L/W's - they consist of a complete ridge and a mass-balancing trough as the total coupled wave space. Not sure that's what they are talking about. That said, in the summer... the flow becomes "nebular" ... which means it meanders. This happens as gradient weakens over the wash of the hemispheric scope from the normalization of the solar calendar/integration there in... etc etc.. With weaker gradients..there is less velocity and jet structure break down...and concomitantly.. the R-waves become more difficult to define and also increase in numbers...as well, shrink. I explained this last week. Any other Mets wanna jump in -by all means.

NAM's 12z particulars gum up the works... It brings some sort of convectively induced/MCS low through central NE Saturday afternoon and evening... that it initializes ..actually now-ish north of Iowa. The questions are whether A ... that feature actually exists; if so, to what mechanical presence - and by this latter facet we mean, does it really baroclinically operate. It appears to evolve warm and cool frontal tapestry as it's passing through the area... enough so to insert stability into SNE by Saturday evening. Around 18z that day ...regional LIs bottom out around -5 ( which is a bit of a low anomaly ) ..then by 00z and 06z in the night that particular metric bounces all the way back to +1 ... with winds slipping from SW to NW... transitioning with 0 QPF modeled S of CON NH.. all this does is effectively evacuation unstable parameters out. That could evacuate the good seaward...such that when the deep layer instability arrives Sunday morning ... the attack on convection enthusiasts is complete in that nothing happens anywhere because this odd interference journey. Kidding there but .. wouldn't shock me if that NAM is over doing that MCS attributed wave and thus that changes the landscape over the weekend.

You guys are funny ... typical typical typical. We get it. but to say so? heh, there's a soup con of bargaining there -