Typhoon Tip

Seems like each of the last 4 or 5 winters into early springs have featured at least one episode exceeding +20 F daily anomalies or even more exotic ... lasting more than a single day when they occurred too. regardless of whether a given season return to normal or snowed thereafter or not. And I’m not talking typical misty southerly T and DP 65ers. These were dry sub-boreal continental heat conveyor patterns ... Recalling one Feb and more than one March in said span over 80! ... I was stunned when it was 88 on March 30 in ‘98 ... now that seems prophetic nonethewiser

Pure subjectivity .... it’s only been a month. You know I’m not saying it wouldn’t aggravate people I’m just saying it’s made interminably worse by setting peoples expectations I don’t think that’s really common sense deniable it may yet snow before the 20 th tho

Well .., I dunno nothin about juju or destiny or weird little angels sitting on our shoulders ... But I am fully aware of pricktease sour grapes. Lol

I get the feeling that this would’ve been much better off as winter romance if it never snowed that one storm in December… It seems to be when you get that one event early ... it seems that the early snow absolutely screws everybody spirits if it doesn’t do anything afterwards - far worse than if folks had just never been exposed to it at all.

Couldn’t get past your first sentence in your previous you said, ”The crazy thing about this pattern is that everyone in the lower 48 is getting screwed” of course it matters to the people that like snow in the south it’s snowing down there - hello? That denies your conclusion. Lol. Wow

+WPO will do that for them...

I don't see evidence that this is propagating - the lower portion tries to slope to the right but there should have been a warm node again in the 50 sigma level and that's not it what you see there... no propagation... SSW and AO are disconnected.

It just snowed in the south ...what -

The operational Euro has a -EPO construct out there ending on D10 ... with ridging into the Alaskan sector and trough calving down stream into the Great Basin ... ...yet, no cold air in western Canada appreciable below seasonal norms..in fact, it may not even be at seasonal norms... Gutless -EPO ...

It'll be wrong.. can't construct -NAO blocking ridges when there's too much wind velocity feeding in to the domain at mid troposphere -

Right ... a -7 standard deviation airmass floatin a storm through it tends to normalize matters

It’s why our big heat has to come on a WNW or even NW flow as counter intuitive as that may seem. it’s also why some 2/3rds to 3/4 of all NE ‘severe’ days will feature line gapping or splitting

Oh I’ve been talking about that geographic truism for years yeah I have even described that line as LGA to PWM I think of SNE as a continental-marine hybrid climate. Ocean modulates too much too often not to be considered as something like that.

Quick hitting NJ Model low/ .. sig event implied by 192+ on the bestest model there is, the J M A A A A

I'm expecting that to do that... chapter one in a new story. It seems the models and forecaster efforts are struggling to parse out what is what from the 12th to the 17th ...that is the regime change modulation in that range, and it may come in a couple of trough progression amid a flow that is vastly speeding up ... (that being near the front side). In the wake we establishing a more gradient saturation from midriff Canada to the Gulf o/ Mex ... What we see happening after the 15th is there is a subtle flow bifurcation/ .. not quite a full-on split in the conventional sense, ...but there is a vestigial tendency for the PNA to neutralize ..that wants to pull the at first Rockies ridge orientation closer to the WC proper of N/A ...that tends to calve the flow east of the Rockies... the 18th event the GEFs are fiddling with ( and some of those are bombs!) ...is actually interesting because that is Pac wave that ends up in that quasi S/ branch... and east of MV that may yet still be a subsume favorable environment because there's semblances of retrograde tendency still going on at 60 N... so the hemispheric counter-clockwise/ ..relative rotation is still there. This time it may work out better because what screwed the pooch over the last 10 days was that no one or the models really pegged a nebular pattern of lax gradient in a -NAO pulse. That's a weird form of that... Best to just not include this recent week in any trend factorization - imho...

Some sort of break from ennui/quiescence, whether 'hellacious' or just in general, yup. Pretty substantial regime changes typically do spawn. You can see a 'velocity flashing' passes through the entire medium from west to east over the period going from D4-5 ... The western ridge, eastern trough scaffolding is well underway during ... just sort of spontaneously emerges, and at the other side... that is beyond the temporal boundary of the pattern switch - I'm wondering if the non-linearity of making that progression is 'masking' or hiding any 'corrective' event of that nature out there... and that event could be this signal for the 18th. It's been there in the GEFs for days ... The 00z GFS missed a mega subsume bomb because it bullied in a Pac wave at 180 to 192 hours...Otherwise, the ridge in the west would have have completed the R-wave mechanics and driven that SPV S to meet up with that S/Stream ... and well - boom. It's a volatile time between D6 and 11 or 12 ...so I don't buy it that we should "punt" through D10... It depends what people are punting I suppose.

Nope

GFS looks interesting at 192 years ...

Lol right ... it’s called 40 F afternoons under a slowly creeping higher sun

Fast flow actually favors of modestly amplified West Ridge by curvature so amplified Ridge could be expressed in the velocity momentum in other words a longitudinal Ridge in which case he be right but he doesn’t specify that - When someone says western North American ridge Ridge Ridge Ridge people tend to dress her out in their mind like some tall arcing sloped flow in Western Canada ... it’ll be interesting

Okay... reluctantly, I'll concede to "a signal" 17-18th ...around D9 and 10 coming from the GEFs... Most of the members, including this V16 as I'm sure the 'cinema goers' are well aware .. carry substantial trough through the east, some with embedded importance to varying degrees. It's probably about what we could expect in terms of focus/shapeliness of any feature at that range for two-fold. Here's my reluctance and the problem I have with determinism here ...and it transcends the usual D9 perfunctory doubt. That longer-lead is made indeterminably even worse because it is on the other side of a regime change threshold. I'm always quite leery of any siggy event on the other side of a 'pattern boundary' ... too many moving parts have to evade fractal mechanics and guidance can't really do that ... The whole of its dependence becomes very non-linear in the wave physical mechanics - ha! It's like you gotta apply the Schrodinger's equation to the field... My bet? prooobably something emerges on the guidance envelope ... materializing on the far side of said boundary ... but it could be a Para-G category III white 'cane, or... something of a pearled out stretch series... Said threshold is D5 + in guidance blends; you can see the speedy might of the Pacific fist punching across the CONUS and leads us into a parade pattern off the pacific. The questions abound of course.. Like, does the pattern D6-10 become more zonal with velocity and jet momentum carrying the amplitude expression? Or, is there more curvi-linear structures ... It tend to think the former is more likely due to velocity interfering with curved surfaces.. favoring longitude. Man, patience wears ... It would be nice if the flirtations with the 14th could actually wet ... or shall we say, 'whiten' appetites.

Agree with much of this.. LOL .but, the HC ain't gone ... The fact that the flow is speeding up is really more like a rebound and 'sort of' evinces that - or in the least is suggestive of so... Anyway, I have been wondering if maybe the regime changing back toward a faster velocity deal .. might herald in with a lead event, but it's almost comical watching this keep happening, where x-y-z run by a-b-c model creates one ( there it is!) but no sooner, ...spends the next two cycles cleverly concocting means to deconstruct it's own creation - ... As it stands right now, the lead-in to the faster regime is more consensus watered down to just being a cold front followed by 500 mb winds at Neptunian velocities ....

well... I'm asking those suffering withdraw symptoms to be objective lol. But, having that look is far better - imho - at this range, than this faux idealized -NAO voodoo we just limped through. This was a like a 80 year-old's boner pattern... torpidly excited. No trough deeper that 552 dm, and no heights greater than 572 or whatever is simple not enough gradient. We really did more than merely figuratively move the pattern from gradient surplus to a dearth therein, too much so to really energize a decent slow mover cash-in. Also didn't help that that NAO was weak sauce frankly. I don't think it was really that - ... I almost think it was just a result of the weird flow abandonment and pattern entropy. That region up there is a natural sort of latent heat dumping region ground for weak-field exhaust... and it was over modeled too. But, soon as the flow speeds up... washed off the board like a dry eraser swipe.

nah...too many height lines. The flow is too fast there. It may engender something there eastern OV to MA but it'll likely be haulin' ass and S of NS in 9 hours flat with that screaming balanced flow that represents the entire scope there. ... The red flag for that is that the environment immediately downstream of that trough only shows vague ridging rolling out ahead of it...

well, I may not be remembering that conversation exactly right then, either - very good! 2 for 2 lol Or, I am remembering the conversation right, but I didn't understand what you were really asking before .. there's that too - Whatever was said then versus now,... I don't know how the La Nina would be augmented or not by the HC expansion stuff... I am speculating both aspects there - it could just mute the whole works the same amount ( which is why I said No before ...I remember that - ) but, I cannot be certain. I admit we're hypothesizing here - I do agree that it superimposes over the HC in constructive way so ..mm, that's tough. My problem with the ENSO stuff is that it only forces through the realization of hemispheric seasonal gradient... It's just this simple ( arithmetic concept): If the HC pushes too far away from the NINAs and NINO ...they don't disperse as readily, because they are being cut off from the gradient - which ends up displaced N where the HC rim terminates into the westerlies. It's that simple - the ENSO gets cut off from the party be inclusion in the HC- Either way, I think we can agree that the aN erstwhile forced -AO cap over top, at least offers an interesting final chapter to winter.