Typhoon Tip

I hope it is 83 F on March 1 - the 14th... then, precisely of the 15th, it is 32 F with 60" of snow, then the 16th - 30th it is 83 F Snowiest March ever

This has been intolerable ...yet tolerated. I've taken to coining this a Pandemic interment camp. No 3-year old but I can imagine. I have 8 sisters and no brothers, and they all had sons.. which made me officially a swaying nephew-tree. I mean, you pull up curb side in front of the house... you swear the kids merely found out I was coming and before I even arrived they musta been scrambling to outfit in their climbing harnesses and rappelling gear ... After an hour of it, each kid may as well be a tire swing with a baby elephant etc... I'm miserably sad inside for having missed the opportunity to be a dad ... sometimes. I just take a moment to reflect upon ankle biting and rib counting contests ..screaming at one end, vs tantrums at the other along the "adorable" spectrum. Suddenly one does not feel so bad. anyway... The two warmest springs I personally recall are 1976 and 2012 ... both where immediately preceded by light to moderate La Ninas 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 I think there is some shot that this sort of lead-in serves ... La Nina springs have a tendency to flip pretty warmer than normal, and though these are only two years and were rather extreme, the normalized regression is warmer than normal as correlation anyway. 1976 April ... Four consecutive days above 90 F at UML station. 2012 ...not sure about intra-monthly records but... as a whole many climate sites soared to some +8 to +12 above normal. Difficult for that particular month to do that. Anyway, as I've been advertising with no buyers ( LOL ) ... the "intangibles" don't really favor cool either. I guess if it doesn't manifest and we end up doing the same with all these large and mid teleconnector scaled signals, land air and sea... working to punch a warm ticket... what can we say - it is what it is.

... perhaps more succinct than what I just explained to that individual -

Mmm the "pattern" is more than a snap shot of the surface, one day, that happens to suffice what one wants - ...wish it were that easy. If it were, the enduring winter enthusiasts just need look at a single daily chart out of the first cold snap in November and up - we're all set 'till next June. The pattern is more than this cold in New Englan/NP ... There are trends that are being ignored and probably it's futile to try and expose those to people because the selection tendency makes an aspect equally coherent: they won't allow themselves to see anyway. The 500 mb is more indicative of the pattern, btw ... I understand what you meant, but...with two deep troughs at that time, digging into the Great Basin out west, and a SE ridge that is heavily favored by a La Nina base footprint hemisphere ... HC ...climate change and fast flow seasonal trend ... +AO/-PNA/+NAO... plus, said SE is growing at an insidious slow rate almost unnoticed every day in the guidance... the pattern is in fact more like D(pattern) that you are looking at, and is thus not dependable really at all.. The foresaid collage of factors really probably suggests that the cold aspects are likely over-done.

Texas could be low or even middle 80s by D5 ... ...with ice damage in yards...

Yeah...noticing that here too... We've had mainly 'light' snow bursting. 29 also and it's still not sticking to the roads and driveway. I'm not sure what the physics/material science aspect is wrt solar at this time of year, but the sky is 'bright' relative to a snowing ceiling. We are on the equatorial side of the perennial solar minimum at this point. Speculative, but I wonder if were night .. would these lighter fall rates stick to those types of surfaces. If/when it snows heavy it doesn't matter... but when it's this light fluffy stuff and the sky is lighter it may become a nose tickler event only

Yeah ... not a complete failure ... Give it an A+ for place holder... about a D+ for realization ...

That ( may be ) an underrated spectacle there - ... not judging, but I could see that not getting the gawk factor it deserves. Not in this hurried, swipe to see the next tweeted stimuli. The shock junky's weighted virtuosity for meaningful introspection ... 'weird, huh' Looks like the opening scene conjured by a Hollywood producer, director and their writing team for a science-fiction space odyssey ... This alien worldly facade fades into view as the audience is bathed in the dystopian mid and low-range keyboarded foreboding subliminal angst. Hell yeah, I'd hit that movie - love that shit man.. After a few moments of that, it ends at something that looks eerily less organic? Your' not sure as the image pauses upon it. Just then, 'Zomb!' goes a single deep thud upon the timpani head, in concert with the assonance of a base-chordal stroke, and simultaneously the name of the films appears in goth black. Fade to: "It looks like an alien world," ...only those stalagmites that the conversing voice would at the time obviously be unbeknownst. Maybe they would be some other form of crystalline salts - in material science context... The water below is a 'near' toxic brine of various negative ionic base-state elements... Sodium just being one ... But, it's doable with lots of high-techy chem and electrodes. The only problem is...among the various challenges of colonizing this Earth-sized world, annexed by human advancing technology and assumptive providence over all that is in its visual detection... 'What was that thing we saw at the end of the intro tho?' This world was discovered in the early part of the 22nd Century: "Proxima Centauri b: It is the closest extra-solar planet to our native system.. Its mass is at least 1.3 times Earth, and thus by inference of such system's gravity and other techniques, assumed to be a rocky world. Its orbital period of 11.2 days puts it within its hosting star, a red dwarf's "habitable zone" - the distance from a star where thermodynamics permits water in liquid phase state across the surface . Which despite all evidences proving our planet's trials and tribulations, so extreme as to incur distinctive extinction level eras, we are in just such a zone around good old Sol. And it is, by no evidence to the contrary, still quite suited to our existence - it is a relative utopia all things considered. Yet, there are plenty of examples of organism that survive this planets nested regions of unimaginable heat, cold, or chemistries that by any corporeal sense of vitality are incomprehensibly beyond human tolerance. These so-called 'extremophiles' really own the world - they will be around after the great culling. And equally challenging any imagination that launches from that platform, what could they may be on other worlds, worlds where life's adaptations took place in no such utopia. ... And when the catastrophic ocean death wave passed over the Earth, and essentially asphyxiated it's ability to convert C02 back to 02 while sequestering carbon into future carbonate rocks... all warm blooded creatures greater than 50 kg were instantly at the brink of yet another extinction ... That's when desperation got us to Proxima Centauri b .

well... the twitter version combining the La Nina climate and pre-existing planetary footprints, with telecon do not equal the operational Euro... to put it nicely. Definitely not the GFS ... beyond D 8 or 9 ...

after dustings too negligible to register yesterday ... I awoke this morning to a 1.5" Adding brings me to 49.5 as a tight seasonal number -

I'd like to see the EPS full suite of derivatives ( teleconnctors...) before signing off on March threats - That suggestion is diametrical to the last 10 days of GEFs trend, as in 'opposite' , frankly. Which are not just persistent and thus represent high continuity, but are so concerted it is hard to separate the individual members in the curves ... +1AO/-1PNA/+1NAO ... by the time the first week of March is underway. ... perhaps the EPS is completely in support of winter fantasies into March - I dunno. Haven't seen those numbers; and by that, one would not care so much to hear someone's lensing interpretation, rather see their EOF derived index modes and modalities. The GFS operational run's daily synoptic morphology in recent day's of runs has become so increasingly detached from its own family telecon suggestions, it is as though they are no longer apart of the same geophysical genome. Like it is a new model with no ensembles and completely alien - I think it gets more and more suspicious that they dropped coefficient seeds in that thing to try and goose it's accuracy for shit they cannot fix and it's f'ing it up... Sarcasm aside... LOL, is not exactly doing my case any favors - no... Because .. when one is is dealing in postulation and speculation of future patterns based upon a rather arcane approach of balancing trends, modulated with 'synergistic' foresight ... that is not going to resonate very well in the average reader. People need to actually see it on the charts. The problem is, the concept arithmetic ...sumpin' like, ( ( La Nina spring + HC expasion + ) / 2 ( +1AO/-1PNA/+1NAO ) ) / 3 does not equal the operational Euro... to put it nicely. Definitely not the GFS ... beyond D 8 or 9 ... The GFS extended is exceptionally out of phase ... These aspects above - I am not making this shit up. Those are factually what we are dealing with, as present climate inference, plus the teleconnectors then mapping over top. That is a constructive interference at hemispheric/planetary scales... If at some point in the guidance, once some physical exertion thresholds gets kissed .. triggering this explodes into the warmest spring ever r some crazy thing - that would almost be understandable given the above leading colors. ... Climate change... Siberian methane hole punching through the permafrost ... hahahaha... alright, alright I'm completely joking on this latter stuff... But these tendencies to bulge the SE ridge as of late they're like 'fore-shocks' Sometimes when the higher resolution, supposedly more dependable, operational versions agree ( cross-guidance)... their disparate ensemble means will eventually collapse in favor. That "might" account for the index part of the crude formula above. But, the terminating SSW circuitry with the early January event/ .. normal gestation of those, does time the AO recovery by march when using historical inference on those events of the past - so that offsets that assmption. It's like no matter how one looks at this, it's warm... Yet the operational runs - this could be the greatest disconnect I have ever seen pending those EPS values... Despite all this rhetoric and prose... I don't have any skin in the game ...I don't care if it doesn't materialize a warm seasonal progression March. I don't care either - well..that's not entirely honest. I don't want to go through March and April NE cruelty as a lucid member of human sentience ...no. But, I don't care if this speculation does not materialize. I'm really more into it for the adventure and practice - and from where I am sitting... 10 days ...maaaaybe 14 if we nod to momentum.. I remember, what year was that...I think it was 2014? There was a big modeled ocean bomb that would have been 50" of snow and 100 mph wind gusts ... James and George001 moderated the press briefing between FEMA and NCEP, while their dads were super duper impressed ... Ann Hathaway even called James, rumor has it.... That storm stayed too far east to really clobber the area, but it did nick up as far as SE zones and the Cape. The cold air that was nasty and persistent that late winter going into March... wrapped around the storm and evacuated out with it. The curve of the month sloped up at 40 degrees on temperature graphs from that point on ...

bold 1 ...essentially correct for the issues at hand bold 2 ...La Nina does not cause the Pacific to buckle or not buckle the flow over N/A - doesn't work that way. La Nina is a long term, oceanic -atmospheric coupled teleconnetor that correlates to pattern forms - but those forms are not instructed by it. The patterns result from an ambrosia of different influences... It can augment patterns and or favor results, but it there is no physical circuitry between "cool off the oceans which allowed arctic air masses' ... that's unfortunately ( don't mean to be rude here ) gibberish bold 3/4 ... I had to give up mid way trying to parse out that dizzying site spec of atmospheric architectural requirements in order to build a cyclone - lol. Just simplify it for now: western ridge ... trough amplifying through the lakes ... in a flow that is not anomalously fast. Vary that some... sure... but if you stress any one of those constructs too much....Beyond that, for winter enthusiasts... obviously one would like cold air in place over New England... while also, not having heights over 580 DM across N. Florida...

Yup... hypothesis confirmed... The D10 Euro extrapolates to at least a thaw if not seasonal page turner

Yeah... like here --> . 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 then whatever

That's a repeating mantra I'm reading on this forum and it's not right really ... The system bombing does nothing up stream/ after the fact. The "slowing" of the flow begins with whole scale meridian curvature - western ridging over N/America. That storm can bomb it's way across the N/Atlantic it has nothing to do with what is orchestrating from the lower OV-MA NE regions after the fact.

More than less I suppose. That particular beast was a hybrid between ... The 12z ( AM) March 30 synopsis featured an open Pacific wave moving east encroaching upon the western GL longitudes... 24 hours later, it was closing down to two contours of standard intervals ... Then on April 1 it was 4 contoured very deep anomaly situated SE of ACK - the evolution was more like 'becoming' a bowling ball.. But it was consistent with the general idea... Just on roids - More typically...you'll see a rain ball on the synoptic charts, with dark blue QPF cores nested in the middle of heaver regions; where there's probably base-ball diameter aggregates pruning early buds and snapping tulip stems, ...of course, enabling neurotics in this engagement to hiding in 6 hours of enabling delusion and denial - Lol useless...

It's a metaphor obviously, but one materialized out of the collective musing of this social -media's vernacular over the years. I means nothing to textual Meteorology - it refers to a tendency in spring for the flow to dip initially like it's still mid winter, only to abandon the southern aspect and pinch off quasi closed lows that roll on through ... They look like round balls. They can some times return a deep core height anomaly... If the timing is right, they can produce giant events - ...most do not, however.

anyway... the CPC's tele curves really end winter .. I'm not sure why the operational run fights it so ...actually, 'ignores' would seem apropos, but is inappropriately anthropomorphic - it's probably just because the operational version is a souped - up turbo charged N stream juggernaut at all times so .. .like I said last week/10 days ago when this "early spring" vibe started to take hold of those distant telecon looks... the operational GFS will be the last model out of all included the "Antarctic" to see any scenario that requires it release it's terrible physical strangle hold on the hemisphere utilizing an N/stream it formulates so powerful that Jupiter rejected it ... man that models is frustrating - What is fascinating is that en masse/ blending via the EOFs we end up with a layout where there is 0 telecon support of any storm, period. Violently, post SSW recovered hemisphere ( AO reversal into positive), while the NAO wobbles > 0 SD, and the PNA dips to -1 .... those are not individual storm suggestions and the sure as shit are not in combinatory influence, either. Right out to the end of the 2.5 weeks of GEF coverage. Yet, individual members still send Pac potency... All the while, dealing with this consummate correction/damping tendency and verified model error ? Those two, together, as compounding facets ... I can't help but feel like we are seeing the "how" phantom storms are being fabricated by the noise of the model(s)... incarnate. I'm wondering if that's sort of a "bowling" season happening - earlier than normal - and during a compression scenario.

I have a time sensy hypothesis that would expire upon reception of the this immediate ensuing Euro run - ...I'm wondering if tries to bulge up a bit of an eastern CONUS ridge D 7 -10 ...latter.

Fwiw - rad also gives the impression they are ~ 30 mi too far N along that N periphery of their 'pink' cloud annotation but we'll see

This thing is a sheared out mess... The WAA/isentropic aspect is being displaced many hours down stream to the point of being ripped away ... opening up a gap between it ( the deep blue p-type rad wall pressently DCA to NJ...) ...and a cyclogen latter response that is more more evidenced as being "starved" ...because the antecedent is stealing away seaward with the dynamics. SO, in total...this is a system that straight up clearly got butt f*ed by the fast flow... This is proving as in motion paragon, why compression does not favor deep lows. Nice learning op... It's all relative - if the in situ mechanics were overwhelming ...you may get closer to a fast moving bomb, but the stretching ...ultimately leading to shearing forces are always there...and it's up to the in situ mechanics to either able to hold it together...or burst up and shred like this bootleg 30 hour ordeal ends up becoming of it -

Storms have ended up west of guidance... but not necessarily stronger. The problem with track - less so amplitude - coverage by the models has been the "needle threading" aspect -

Been elucidating ( or trying to...) that point for a couple of months now frankly: the recurring theme to diminish amplitude relaying outer range aspects ... inside of ~ 5 ..6 day leads. It's been variable amounts of damping ... but always has - never the other direction ( interesting). Sometimes partial, sometimes to the point where once inside 48 hours ... a given original D8 .. 9, reasonably consistent, thus suggestively trackable presence in the flow ... may not even be detectable. The immediate objective response to that is pretty obvious - 'who thinks a day 8 or day 9 feature would verify' But ..neh, - this is worse than that. I'm not sure if that is very normal or abnormal for the recent last 10 or so year of modeling. It's something I have noticed as an excessive frustration this particular year, though. I dunno...maybe something about the hemisphere super-structure/ambience that exposes something they are 'fixing' into the models - maybe to force an over assessment of everything. ...Maybe it is liability protectionism to add 30% vitality to the features out in time. They get their forecast community to over-warn the public early, such than when the inevitable correcting toward harmlessness will need to take place,... there's no way a festering immorality of litigates can hit pay dirt for their own lack of virtuosity and ethics ... I like that - but it's not likely true. Uh...I mean the 'protectionism' - we are a festering immorality of course... It's an important question though, because it seems there's been an increased frequency of model "upgrades" in that time. It used to [ at least seem ...] like these needed 5 years to upgrade any one of these modeling systems. Christ. Millions of lines of modularized code that is/are conditionally called based upon various physically packaged result sets or grid inputs ...some of which is/are still theoretical ... Now? What, they're able to do that yearly? ...yeah I think cynically about stuff. I mean the scientific process perhaps is glossing as modern breakdown ... being less meticulous in modernity ... impatient. I dunno - digressive commentary here, but it "feels" like we live in a rushed intent, vetting is eroded by ambition. It's not discretely obvious but as a lean? Attitude to 'get it out there,' based on some .. perhaps competition, or perhaps even celebrity ambition ... Private industry is competitive with the NCEP... or the like. So, these institutions may even just be pressured; need to be rushing things to keep up and they can't - catch-22. Why? The Gov can't by circumstance really be agile like private tech... etc..etc... What suffers? more so the 'institutional dependability.' That circuitry leading to a lax systemic error prone product suite... it's probably not exactly right. Ha... But, there is a modicum of uneasiness about these modeling products when you see something like a damping aspect that is 100% dependable, regardless of all circumstances leading, too. You know, if a car always drifts left or right regardless of the terrain of the road, that's usually a sign one needs to check their alignment - I don't recall a single modeled impactful event from that range ...successfully maturing to less than ~ day 5 without being morphed weaker ... It's surreptitiously diminished, too. You don't know how in the hell you ended up with the piece of shit you're looking at. You just sort of realize, 'man, this thing's a piece of shit - how did I get here'.

It’s amazing how he does that

I didn’t until recently. I wanted to track its accuracy and figured I’d give it the season. so far it’s not impressive with details while seeming reasonably good at general system awareness in space if that makes any sense