Typhoon Tip

Yeah ...these are purely subjective takes on/comparison of them two years... So for what it's worth I think of Feb 2015 as an awe-inspiring pattern .... I think of a 1995-1996 as an awe-inspiring season ... Concomitant with both - in an attempt to offer some convincing logic to one's case: 2015 - the pattern was more locally realized. Not to understate/value... many of those locales pulled off almost scary monthly totals. It seemed also the heavy hitter cold was E of ORD ... 1995-1996 - contrasting, the season seems to have been a more ubiquitously shared experience ... really that's a broader inundation achievement than the 2015 year, which seemed to really focus for an intra-seasonal pattern gestation and focus in the E OV/New England, and probably was nucleus in SNE proper - though don't quote me. Another difference is that 1995-1996 did that three week Rossby rollout and repositioned a new L/W more in the Lakes and brought winter out that way tho not nearly as prolific ... Still, it was a spatially bigger layout in that sense, where S of Alaska to S of Greenland sloshed and a bigger zone of impact went along with. Planetary winter vs - So I dunno ..take one's pick. From inside a living room, you wouldn't know. It only matters to use dweebs -

It's true ... for storm enthusiasts, that February orgasm blue balled their March. I remember growing weary of it by mid month. We had been 10 days with blinding cold. I remember like nearly a week's worth of days, back-to-back, where mid day temp on the car's dashboard was always "19 F Outdoors" I'm like, March 16? 19 F at 1pm ... that's 4 days before the Equinox. Imagine it being September 26th and its 19 F. I wonder if the ground would be too warm to snow, lol. It was unrelenting and I was feeling like the show was over but the atmosphere wouldn't leave the auditorium ... ' fine, July is sill coming whether it wants to admit it or not' ...it still didn't really end there.. I think there was snow in some baseball stadiums into the first week of April - was that that year? I remember trying to watch a Red Sox game even after the season opening road trip toward April 7 ..and there was packing pellets and pitchers "warming up" in 33 F ... it was nuts. But through all that, it was wasted cold. Despite the remarkable and historic February, that year's silent record is really the 45 days of wasted cold LOL ...We could have had 500" of snow that year if storm rates maintained same with that bank-able cold ( edit, yeah okay so .. south of the pike there was still some activity but it doesn't diminish the point - you didn't get 120" south of Pike in March) Bit of hyperbole ( heh ) but I always thought that being that year's "leaving some on the table" - all the greats do. 1995-1996, I always wondered what could have been that year if Minnesotans didn't steal three weeks and four cutters worth out from under us rich greedy bastards back east. Jerks So ...to me, March 2015 was the real nadir of that "pattern storm" . Because from a broader Meteorological/ synoptic philosophy it is not the coldest break, it is when the instability is normalized and the set up enters a stasis of inactivity. That's the ultimate nadir because the 'storms' in getting there is still the d(pattern) phase... At the bottom, it rests... -

I'm wondering what the EPS' PNA curve looks like ? The GEFs ( as anyone can see if they bother to look/ keep track ..) has been taking the PNA to -2 SD between now at Mar 1 ...then, for 5 days ... it does send the curve through camel hump, concertedly among the members. After that the extended settles back blah blah. That hump doesn't quite get back to neutral ... but, it is a mode suggestion in there that sends "some"thing across middle latitudes of the continent ... even it ends up a non storm .. some kind of trough - it's just that the extent of it is probably not very anomalous, nor long lasting ... given the GEFs. But I'm wondering if the EPS might have a similar interim of PNA rise..only more robust? The Euro operational counterpart really seems to be honing that period of time with insistent +PNAP ( which is the actual over-continental expression with some lag off a +PNA ) but that layout is more so than the GEFs... I'm willing to hunch the EPS and the whole Euro cluster might be in a different bubble of ideas comparing to the GFS. For one, that absurdly deep cold shock event has backed off the overnight GFS runs, as others have assessed - not that we didn't suspect that would happen with its -99 SD trough that is physically impossible on Pluto let alone Earth - Speaking of the GEFS - the totality of the telecon spread between the majors ( AO, NAO, PNA ) are all still yet again insisting upon switching the hemispheric mode. It seems there is a recurring theme ...really going on for the past week's worth of everything godly and glorious in the technological realm of atmospheric modeling: Do not allow operational runs to ever look as warmly impressive as that teleconnector converged signal would fit. I'm so put off by the operational GFS's abysmal and embarrassingly coherent cold height bias ... I don't know what to think or wonder what goes into those individual members let alone the blend. For spring enthusiasts ...you still have La Nina climo which is a pretty strongly warm look. Thing is, it might be hard to parse that out with CC piggy backing.. Climate change is like an automatic decimals if not whole degree above monthly norm expectancy anyway. But these ENSO numbers look by both numerology and behavior spanning the last 6 months, similar to years in the past that had obscene warm spells nested in a three month mean that was well above normal .. The climate inference alone has legs. For now, 46 F at 9:15 on Feb 24, with sun equivalent to October 15 ( for perspective ..), and only light wind, and full gem-sky blue sun unabated to Kevin's shining dome ... while angels kiss his nape ... does have an appeal doesn't it .. heh. Anyway, today oughta bust MOS... We've officially entered the MOS bust time of year for these sort of nape days-

I dunno.. .thing is, that could tone it down by 15 deg and still be exotically deep and equally as annoying - assuming the latter is what Gaia's really after.. The Euro did carry a similar cold shot at least once in recent runs and considering we're not really in the Euro's wheel house ... It may all end up that we get a 32 F high and two cold nights, interrupting some AN afternoons out of that.

Yeah, that cold snap then it may get real hard in a real hurry if one is holding out hope in this hemispheric footing - it would take a fluke of the higher order. Could...and March is the kind of crazy month to do it.

actually the GFS does that itself - wow ...

I kind of want that to carve SW and coastal people within an inch of toleration ... then have the EPS launch us into the 70s 4 days later... White out to warm out -

Well there is... Even in that D5, 12z operational Euro depiction, which likely evolves the best plausible outcome for Sunday, there is a frontal structure extending from Indiana to Cape Hatteras.. It's one of these deals where the sun is strong 'ish now and getting stronger, and that Euro run places us so far N of the boundary that we can cash in on lingering modest positive anomaly at 850 mb thermal layout, with light winds under DVM probably keeping it on the sunnier side ...at least though mid or late afternoon. Agreed, that may be an optimistic outlier - ahh, on Feb 28th...just maaaaybe so huh? You have to forgive me - once we get passed Feb 15 every year, I track these early winter napalm, nape gem days like their actual snow storms before that time.

Hoho man ...pleezy weezie with sugar on top - after this f'n pandemic internment camp? Unfortunately, fragile as is... I was just musing in the other thread that the EPS is trending up the eastern latitudes with extent of the ridge under pinning... so that's good sign for spring enthusiasts. Otherwise, that set up has like no room for error or the boundary is too close and we be skunked -

well... not as is - maybe... Not quite Fox Hall territory... Again, I'd like to see the 576 close the gap on NYC. We all have our ways and means but for these early attempts at spring balm pattern looks that's sort of index finger rule for me personally... Shy of that cons into thinking utopia but delivers necks kissed by skies of drab shit spray weather - mmm sign me up! no thanks... close tho

I dunno... hard to ignore the EPS' trending that mid range SE height menace... It's not hugely incremental... sneaking up, maybe like 2 or 3 dm per 12 hour cycle... but should this get much more anomalous we're likely to just see that D5 through D7.5 or 8 end up SE of a wavy stationary freak frontal zone, se of which reside securely inside a dry continental spring conveyor of that deserty 70 F thing - relax ! It's not there yet ..but there's no part of the hemispheric present footprint of La Nina spring and teleconnectors on top that screams that won't happen just the same. I'd like to see the 576 get closer to NYC ... if/when that happens, that's when the operational run has 82 at Albanty lol

wow..this 12z Euro run on the 28th - last day of the month.... That is deep spring folks! ... +4 to +5 C at 850 mb with COL pressure pattern, < 50% RH at 700 mb at sun up... sun would bust MOS easily prior to clouding over mid afternoon - and it's possible the ceiling ends up evaporating on that front edge because it's running into weak DVM associated with that little-bubble-no-trouble surface high there. I love that stuff when the new season lays down the law type afternoon. Obviously it's not the defining anything else but that 12z D5 look is a pretty exceptional blue-bird day appeal. That goes right passed nape stage and into legit balm appeal there.

Heh... if it's windy no bueno tho - 'nape' only works if it's calm-ish and more sun than cloud. If it's so much at 51% instead of 50% sky coverage ...and the wind is at all noticeable ... the nape appeal is ruined. It really has to be that light wind and sear sun ...where a lazy stroll down ones street lies about the temperature. 49 is "63" ... so forth. Very fragile... I don't frankly like any wind unless it is associated with a Nor'easter, a tornado, a thunderstorm outflow... or the p-wave off a comet impact - otherwise, I find the bluster to be annoying and chilly right up the dial until ... ~ 85 F, then you steadily want more wind because ventilation is needed... But if 67 sunny day with wind bumping you around is a piece of shit day to me

you'd be surprised how many of intellects out there read that and its obviousness does not occur to them

Symbolically ... yesterday's minoring event appealed to me like a March thing. Today, sun is fighting through a milk sky and it's still managed 44 here. It's like with open blue it woulda torched MOS for 4 or 5 I bet... I thought tomorrow would be nape day #1 but I think that's today. Tomorrow gets to be #2 ...

Yeah agreed - ...mused snarkly a while ago about the GFS's propensity to lower cold tropospheric features too far as it is. I don't have a problem with a deep trough intrusion and a 'snappy' cold face smack ... but I don't know if we need Antarctic depths to do it

Haha ...yeah, a little voice in there when I typed that sounded something like, "...he's gon' jump on this statement I fear" ...I thought so? but wasn't sure. I figured it for less relevant either way. right

That's the thing about this year as we enter this spring and so would be the "lag" counter-part to this facet - I wonder if the combined ( so constructive interference ...) that "might" ( emphasize might - ) exist between the La Nina and the HC, could offset offset that, which has become almost dependable as a weird mid spring blocking plague ... You now, 2018 was this phenomenon incarnate. That was an ENSO neutral year...so even though modestly cool and warm ENSO variance ( I believe ) are almost muted out of contention anyway, that pretty much removes much doubt of whether it was irrelevant leading that spring, yet...we had the screaming hemisphere - probably almost entirely owing to the Boreal perennial winter compressed against this HC shit... What happens? Flow relaxes in March, atmosphere sloshes into a blocking for 3 weeks... boom. As far as the built in... I see that all the time in nature. Unrelated, but it reminds me of a sci fi novel idea I have about Gaia's "war on Humanity" ... Fight the enemy where they are not from Sun Tzu - basically ..the idea is, assess where the enemy is weak, before the war begins, and you play that 'virtual' or null space like it's actual chess piece in the conflict. What happens...or emerges to fill the space, invariable "becomes" a detriment to the enemy. I may not have that exactly right by concept but it seems like that's what the strategy is about... Anyway, I have noticed that the two most guilty civilities in the total anthropomorphic Carbon footprint are, China and the United States ( the latter trailing by some percentage - but percentages are missleading because... American has 350 million Carbon pigs ... but Chine has 1.7 billion...so, per capita - we are by and large the loudest snorters in the hog trough ). What is ironic - as a kind of transcendental protagonism specter more than a descrete form, if you will... - is that these two societies are being placated by NOT sensibly "feeling" the impacts of GW as readily and horrifically as it is being felt among cultures that are less guilty - that's fair... While of course, we squabble across geodetic boundaries of right's to usage and percentage culpability. There's an interesting catch-22 there - human culpability and morality/ethics/virtues ... those purely centric distinctions. Nature? they don't matter to nature. You either are or are not C02'ing the f* out of the future, for everyone. No further doctrine bears any relevancy beyond the fact.. The read would spend a goodly number of pages with character development, and some wit and a lot of boring sociology climatology mash up ... But all the while, this hiding the direct "feel" aspect? there are two metaphors that come to mind: The first is the toad in the boiling water.. If toss a frog in a boiling pot it immediately leaps out. If put the frog in the pot when the water is cold and slowly heat it to boiling, you end up cooked frog. The other metaphor is like GW in this way is turning the oven up to the clean cycle - basically ... burning the gunk out of the system. Gaia is protecting our right to eliminate us as a primary infectious agent by use turning up that dial for her. I'm sorry - it's a slow work day ...I know these are long folks. just musing

Like the way you put that ... but, that 'compensating' IS the velocity from increased gradient between the Ferril latitudes and the HC...etc..etc... I have to be honest about something... I remember making an early risk assessing post/series therein about snow at the end of October this last autumn. It was in part telecon timing wrt to the timing of the operational "cadence" - or rhythmic oscillations ... you sort of get a feel for that if you're an Aspergery loner like myself ...lol... joking - ..least I think. But in all honestly, it was also utilizing that booked premmy and lag aspect as a "working theory" due to it's recent many seasons of reduxing.

Mm, I'd suggest that it's more "prevalent" in those 3 of 4 years... But since the year 2000, there have witnessed a huge jump in May and October snow and or snow supporting synoptics compared to pretty much the previous 200 year -based suggestion. Just sayn' ... I have Mets outside this engagement ...they're all noting a greater than decadal "seasonal lag/tainting" aspect... It's not just snow per se..either.. But weird pattern orientations in August that are straight out of January - just happens to be 30 dm up in thickness... ... Same May.. It seems to happen just before, and just after ..the steeper gradient of mid winter proper is laid into the hemisphere. So it's real... it's driving cold into mid latitudes over the continent, both prematurely and belated, during respective transition seasons. I wonder if this phenomenon is happening in Europe and across Asia - that's an interesting question..

Just keep in mind: ...fearing contributing to 'fake news, 'fake science,' which when it comes right down to it is essentially, 'fake but because it was cleverly sounding it is thus highly convincing' - I don't want to be a part of that. Heh, the Scientific Method, in rough assessment, goes like: observation, hypothesis, data gathering, computation to support or refute hypothesis, conclusion .. where by the hypothesis is compared to the conclusion for go, no-go on. In this modernity ...where is apparently ever overwhelmed by a need for speed and rush to glory... subsuming sagacity, we seemed to have developed a new scientific method. Yeah! So much easier if we can just go from observation, skip all that "unimportant other shit" right to awesome conclusion. Science fictional hypothesis - plausibility replaces the possible, where stimulating knee-jerk specter perpetuates the cinema. It's so bad, that truth has become like trying to come down off a Opiode addiction - it can't be done with clinical intervention. Kidding, I realize you are not taking those ideas to the bank. What is known to be true is HC expansion... It's effect on modulating? hypothesis, only. Having said that... it's pretty damn awesome sounding Unless there have been recent validation constrained publications to the contrary, as far as I am away that's where this is at this time. So hypothetically, it does rather nicely offer an entry into the science method, of formulation of reasonable hypothesis to explain the following observations: teleconnectors have been less dependable as the historic, linear statistic inference use to be... prior to ~ 20 years ago, as a slowly increasingly more coherence. This is true in both atmospheric ones, but also suggestive in longer term ones like ENSO.

The 06z operational GFS is the first run of that particular model that has offered any demonstration at all that spatially fits it's own CPC telecon spread - particularly beyond D7..8. Firstly, that weird synoptic "tucking" event at 500 mb up there over eastern Ontario. It was dumped by the 00z Euro .. the previous cycle, 12z yesterday had it, 00z she gone. Meanwhile, the GFS and most GEF members at 00z really are absurdly deep with that feature (March 2nd). We are still deep enough inside 1790 through 1980 winter climatology and so deeper anomalies in general are okay ... Not sure that requires 500 mb heights at 468 dm over the GOM... height depths seldom found in Antarctica - Pretty solid likeliness that is the GFS not having any limitations at all in its ability to lower heights as an ongoing attempt by NCEP to offset global warming utilizing fake modeling. Kidding...but jesus Christ. It does that everywhere ..all scales, dimensions, intents and purpose, in the ongoing maelstrom of atmospheric fluidity. It's egregious... I don't want any V16 ... in fact, I don't want GFS, anymore ... I'm sick of it. For those of us of summer enthusiasm ..it will ruin summer if one spends any time using it during the warm season. Last year, it started about 10 days after the Solstice, driving 300 hour range autumn patterns in July.. It's cold bias is so bad ... just don't f'ing run the model beyond 48 hours until you've figured this shit out... please - Here's another aspect about the GFS based upon multiple seasons of persistence and thus, easy prediction. As we work our way into spring ... there are going to be times when the flow relaxes more and ridging becomes apparent across mid and lower latitudes of the continent in all guidance ... These period "should" be evocative of joy and nape dreams of euphoria for ah, more "normal" seasonal -seeking/guided individuals ( to which, ... NO ONE in this social media represents, of course hahaha )... But nope ... schmuck actually chooses to look at the GFS's surface synoptic... Ooh, and their day was going so good up until that point... when their eyes get a big load of that big pasty ass of a surface high pressure hanging over the log the 50th parallel across S Canada Canada. Sorry just having fun.. .but, that flow out there beyond 8 ... shows that buttocks high pressure tendency - built it, but it shows a lot of relaxed milder thickness and crumbled homogeneous baroclinic tendencies to the layout. The latter is at least encouraging. That seems to also agree a bit with the Euros post D8 ... Normally one would be two tokes into a crack pipe blowjob to ever infer much from either guidance' D8 ..entering spring migraine no less, but both seems to nod to the highly concertted/continuity of the +AO/+NAO/-PNA ... I almost wonder if that period may emerge - given time - with more of a warm push... we'll see -

mm yeah, it's modest though. Also, a passage not supported in the present hemispheric mode- destructive interference. It would be interesting to see if that succeeds / .. or even if so, if there's a very noticeable hemispheric response - it could struggle to maintain coherency on that left side of the RMM...but that struggle is equatable to not influencing the pattern just as well. The MJO wave phenomenon has always been a conditional additive. NCEP routinely uses language like, 'constructively interfering' in context of both negative and positive when describing it's presence, when in circumstance ..it is either asynchronous or synchronous against the on-going back-drop hemisphere. When it is constructively interfering (in the positive ) its really like almost what are called 'non-linear' or "synergistic" responses. You know ... sometimes in nature ... 2+2 = 5? Atmospheric 'rogue wave' as a metaphor. Anyway, the resulting pattern can be rather extreme. Phase 8 MJO + recurving typhoon + Asian eddy forcing the WPO negative ... look out! Likely to send the Pacific into a tall meridian structured flow probably presaging a severing into ridge nodes ( blocking) near Alaska given time...etc.. In the other direction, nada... Not only can the resulting pattern not represent the MJO is even there, the wave its self seems to 'bounce off' or routinely decay along the Phase space boundaries within those RMM diagrams without actually progressing through. This season? These late Phase 7 into 8, thru 1 .. 2... that entire left side is in negative interference. I'm not sure I see why that is different suddenly, and why the Euro necessarily will be correct in that. It's own EPS mean is less emphatic about actually getting a coherent wave power outside that inner oblivion. I almost wonder if the very earliest detection of seasonal change is sweeping through the guidance cores...and that neutralization of the compression is allowing the wave to squeak through ... spit ballin'

Heh ... sounds like April’s from when we were young. btw .. I figure for Kevin speaking hyperbole but I never “promised” a torchy March. I merely wanted to open to discussion citing clad statistical/ .. scientific reason to suggest that may evolve - pertain to the spring as a total character specifically being unlike the last several But he is right - it would help to actually see it on the charts LOL. Frankly I’m interested in that sneaky northern stream trying to carve back against the flow … And actually the GFS also has a bowling ball out there after that too heh cept I don’t trust the GFS in this scenario though at all. It’s native bias is intrinsically going to fight seasonal change let alone the things discussed just because of its northern domination

That'll really glare on Wednesday ... least down here. Looks like light wind and 48 2pm ... that's the first real nape day right there. Fake warm incarnate - with gutter rivulets