Typhoon Tip

74 here at 10 stations within 5 mi ... average - Meso west/UT has Fit 73 too... gotta figure we ceiling temp early and start doing more of that cap CU virga shit... Even had a couple of nickel blats under one or two passes of those tendrils yesterday. LI's now further down to -1 .. -2 in recent NAM runs and noticing the GGEM and GFS op's with convective popcorn QPF between 18 and 00z the next two days. I guess you can't really lodge 75 F up under 545 dm thickness without some form or another of instability, huh - maybe we can even get an overachiever thunder clap going. I love how ( presently...) it is apparently Kevin's fault it is cloud in N CT as it is most easily identifiable that the hill line of his specific geography is causing the quasi standing wave phenomenon there... interesting - heh

That is a photo-op for a Better Homes&Garden layout if I've ever seen one but ..heh, your deck needs a staining bro - lol

The illness ( covid ) is real.. The problem here is with the exact nature of the infection part of this infecting agent: it not 'one size fits all' Some die Most don't In between .. there is vast spectrum of just about anything imaginable as to what someone experiences... I've heard of brain damage even. Jesus. Heart scarring this ...lung scarring that... black toes for f sake. While for some... just a head-cold. For others it has mimicked Norwalk shitting... Of course...fever and fatigue may or may not accompany, or be the only thing - It's not like BB plague or Ebola... or Norwalk ... These affect like 99% of population pretty much in the same identical way. Everyone is visible stricken the same that gets them. The uncertainty is lending to a lot of doubt mechanics frankly because it's not every identifiable ...and it is happening in an overall culture that is just as plagued with systemic/social distrust that is as virulent as the Pandemic itself.

Hard call... No part of our climate together with collective common experience would argue for endless days of heat in May. Will and I were musing the other day about ...maybe 2010 doing that... and I'm sure if we dig around. I dunno - maybe this is a return year for something like that (...although this first week of May puts us behind those lore years ) You know..I spent time studying way ago ENSOs and noted a pretty coherent correlation between some noted warm springs into early summers; most were preceded by La Nina numbers quite remarkably similar to this years preceding month ( also through those winters...). But those years got warm, earlier than this..., and it was obvious those years from the get go that it was going to be usual 1976,..2012 were all warm anomalous stand outs with similar -1.5 type 3.4 NINOs... The difference this year seems to be ( theoretical ) the fast flow/HC shit seems to be masking the ENSO as of late, and this year we need to remove that factor ...perhaps now that we have, that substropical ridging is emerging? I dunno - just a thought. But, that vortex handling up there beyond D6 and especially 7 ..the Euro always does this.. It just up and bodily moves those things...and completely abases any D3-7 well established pattern, whether one is destined to actually occur or not. So I don't trust that -

Meh.. I wouldn't trust the Euro after D6 frankly... ...actually any model for that matter, duh - but this Euro run looks like it drops the signal at mid range more because of it's wash application, as opposed to any real forcing from any continuity off the D5/6 days.

But then again... mmm that -PNA is pretty eye-popping on the telecons at CPC frankly. It's like the -PNA complexion of the CPC, which is based upon the GEFs ..., provides a scaffolding for the GGEM's exuberance with its heat look. The Euro appears to be arriving continuing along the 00z's notion of lesser SE Canadian jet so... support may be growing for early heat here. At least from D7 ... after that the Euro tries to doom next weekend - it's climo for that to happen. [EDIT, sorry .. that was the previous run for next weekend...this one's only out to D7 ] That's the f'n rub about these anomalies...In order to have the ballz to make a call over climate. But man, that D5 ...6 of the Euro has a western heat ejection going over top look ...bringing that down over our area D6 on a WNW dragon fart trajectory.

Holy crap wow - that's nuts. D7 GGEM It even has a lee side 'heat trough' impression in the isobaric layout from coastal Maine down to Virginia during the afternoon next Friday... might be a 94/lowish DP type of hot day. Oh. ...wait, it's a the GGEM .. heh.. Still fun eye-candy for us summer enthusiasts though -

The hemisphere over on our side is definitely trying to enter a new paradigm... This is a bunner ob but that tropical storm in the Gulf at D8 is classic favorable deep layer and the model can't resist when it has the those mechanics in reach - it sort of backs us into a deep layer -AAM flow regime assumption over America ...Lowering angular momentum favors subtropical ridging and 'cane production.

I went out to California last June, myself. Didn't get sick. 'Course ...'plane was only half full

Yeah...it seems the models are trying to get us into a more important early warm anomaly ...and maybe we're just seeing a reluctant sort of emergence in doing so ? I've bee warning Kevin all morning about our sore-butt spring climate but it seems every time I do, the models deliberately go even more against - fascinating really... The telecon's are falling in correlative significance, (seasonally..) but ...fwiw the PNA is getting into historically deep territory in the CPC mean ... Don Sutherland had posted recently that it was some - 2.47 I believe ... At the time, this image below was not depicting what this image below is showing now - lol... The mean of those mop-ended members ... ~ -2 there, with a few members even deeper as we can see clearly ... It may just overwhelm the hemisphere regardless of any lingering blocking signals/tendencies.. It seems the models have been tussling between that happening and some backward -NAO exertion/driving troughing through the Maritimes but ...if this signal below gets more momentous it probably doesn't matter ...the progressive wave signature will transmit through the domain and send the western limb of the NAO domain space packing -

Outside my front door, ...which is gaping to gulp in the 76 F balm as much as a possible..., there is a metallic awning. These small dark CU actually ping the top of that awing as the pass over with small rain drops - like 10 drops per cu and that's it. Weird... Fair weather CU spritz. But, looking around, there are also glaciated nebulae encasing some of these CU edges so ...it's kind of hybrid between both worlds. Like it's snowing at 6,000 feet easily ... and very unstable but only in like 100 mb of total depth ... not much getting to the 500 mb level even.. Just bouncing densely around in that layer under a cap ... It's like a snow shower atmosphere sitting overtop a 75 F lower elevations..

Yup ...this GFS run continues to trend away from climatology on that ridge - and by that I mean, literally ...it is UNclimatologically sound to expect that circulation structure to win out that way - but ... be that as it must, if the present solution works out, we somehow dodge the N/door and/or BD boundary(s) through that period and spill OV/ G. Lakes early heat dome into the region. Assuming so ... this doesn't have any tracing back to a Sonoran or SW air layer ejection modeling so... the heat is sort of 'home grown' .. deeper tropospheric heights working with high hot sun of late spring will amass 82-88 time temperature departures inside that synoptic region. But keep in mind that we are still talking about D5 ... 7 with active polar jet streaking by N of Maine so it's precarious. I hope not ...I hate BDs with the passion more intense than the foresaid sun, but.. gotta be a realist too

Let us know how you feel over the course of the next day or 2 ? I'm getting my 2nd dose ... two weeks - I'm hearing wildly varying reports on side-effects ranging from nothing to an ER stint - no rhyme or reason or pattern discernible either. It's been yes and no for maybe cases in every direction. Zero pattern. I guess scatter plot or not...the average is at least a semblance of reaction above zero - so... I'm just trying to get a fix on expectation - ha, not that your experience should tip the registry here... I didn't get any notice/report from the first dose, personally -

isn't that 'Cousin Eddy' 's from 1989 Xmas Vacation - lol

Lol... I prefer to think of this phenomenon as the weather happening at you ...not around you - I once had to be in a meeting with hook echo on radar 4 miles away while hail core was signaling golf balls, and there were no window in that conference room. man... never forget that. All I could do was wonder if that was thunder through ten different walls of an office building's diffused auditory vagueness. after the meeting there's leaves and small branch debris literally grounds with scung lines from the curb flooding so deep it came across yards of the complex. Sun was shining...

Yeah... I mean, one does not have to be a codified Epidemiologist to connect the dots on this -

Heh.... how 'bout, ' we're all dead in 50 years by life expectancy alone ... excluding the proverbial lightning strikes of chance so, f.u. - I'm outta here' You know ..it pays to find a congenial work environment with non-douchian managerial apparatus of at least modest humanists in charge ... I can walk into my boss' office and say, " Hey Jim - uh... - " interrupts, "see ya tomorrow" The amazing thing about that is ...if the employee in that circumstance and scenario does it with relatively infrequence, it's not even remembered. And, because they are happier, the are 10 X's more productive

Well... we'd have to physically calculate the difference between radiative budget, versus mechanical cooling source - that latter skews the cooling amount. See, in that case of 'lower els' ... that's drainage and accumulation, due to basin phenomenon ..blah blah ... But what we were talking about is strictly the black-body thermal storing/environmental caching as possible reason for lower DP warm nocturnal nights, during residual pattern ( i.e., unchanging in the latter sense ) .

Which I'm okay with ...by the way...

you know it's funny ... I check the "Worldometer" daily COVID cases ... if for morbid, just to see if there's any hope... () Yeah, the case loads are painfully slowly dropping as a longer termed trend. It's sort of 2 steps down, 1 step back up...3 steps down, 4 steps back up, 2 steps down two days in a row, 1 step back , 2 step down, 1 step back... But in the scalar daily numbers, we are this week showing more daily cases than we were BEFORE masks became a millionaire over night cottage industry. Yet, from meme to the IMC ( Industrial Media Complex) and in between there's now this wanton fervency for ridding of mask - 'just can't wait any longer' ? We were not born with masks. 750,000 years of Human biological immune system evolution never needed them, otherwise, ... As much as we conceit we are not apart of those natural signals ( called bow-wow instincts - yeah, ...we're all just sophisticated f'n dogs man), we are showing the instinct to 'get it off!' Put a mask on a house cat and watch what it does ? ...What we are doing now is just the sophisticated frantic swipe and churling mews ... it just happens to be spread out over a mere performance that makes us perpetuate our belief in control over our domain. Because in pure numbers, ...if it was enough to trigger the mask frenzy at the front side, we should be removing masks in 2034 - LOL. Kidding of course... I mean, yeah - we know more about the transmission of this thing and have more empirical -based awareness of what it does at the individual level... integrating to the whole, that tends to assuage policies given time. sure.. But, you can't tell me this isn't hypocrisy to "get if off - I don't care what the cost," to some degree.

Yeah cuz I was just thinking about this further. A 'radiation budget' and the physicality of an environmental setting, 'might' play a role ... I mused up there about the 96/31, typical lower Saharan diurnal spread of desert air, as being inconsistent with that idea but hold on for a second: It occurs to me, ...that's not really a very proficient black body example. The desert is white and pale sand and dust. These surfaces heat up, but also do not store as much radiative heat - such that at night, they don't have as much radiation to give back to the kinetic temperature of the atmosphere - so the cooling momentum is larger and out 'weights' in that sense, the restorative availability - temp plummets. Interesting... I think there may be something to that. Contrasting, ...if we are in absence of CAA in an otherwise dry air mass over American soils and physical settings, we are far more proficiently storing radiative energy from insolation during preceding afternoons - and thus have much more in in the nocturnal cycle to radiate back. I don't know - it's as good a hypothesis as any. If the dark body objects.. foliage and so forth, all store more thermal energy during the day, a clear night has to radiate more. Such that after a couple ... few days, the ground is gaining more and more energy than can be completely emitted away ..so there is a net thermal gain after repetitive days of it. That "might" offer an explanation for the "kinetically charged" dry air phenomenon we are scratching heads over - ... why after a few days, the same DP stays warmer suddenly. It could just be black-body storage phenomenon

Mmmm yeeeeah I'd not take that to the bank - no way. ... I mean, we grew up in New England's "Pulp Fiction" basement scene, spring horror ... Sorry, that above cannot be bankable. I was looking things over with a smirk and thinking, yeah ...it's warm days on the Euro but anytime we see a +1 SD velocity northwest mid level flow/jet stream hosing SE from mid latitude Ontario to over the lower Maritimes, that's usually an automatic BD genesis at some point or the other. I mean, the model tries to maintain that structure as a 'laminar' flow with no perturbations or 'bumps' in the stream, for days? A this range ... good luck! Granted, that is just the 00z run ... We could be on the cusp of a series of runs that show less vestigial -NAO ( which is what that is, btw - a tussle between the -PNA trying to overwhelm the circuitry across the country, while the NAO imposes some sort of subtle blocking that's less than more obvious at the same time... ). I mean in fairness they intimated as much, "..if current trends hold" so we'll see. It's almost like to separate probability curves though.. lol. Like, all that modeling is one, ..then, the other probably of just being b- f*ed... Those seem to be driven along by different physical processes. hahahaha

Yup ... particularly in these pattern "seam" nights like this ? Basically... in three nights, it can be clear all it wants, even still maintaining a rather low DP ...RH ... and the temp stalls at a 47 everywhere. Yesterday, whimsy with words I denoted this as "kinetically charged nocturnal lows" .... trying to sort of 'cartoon' describe it when it seems you can keep lows from falling sometimes, without the obvious DP assist. It just seems like there is something more to nocturnal lows than just DP ... It's like sometimes - not sure why or if this is even real ...anecdotal - a DP of 39 under the same observable synoptic metrics stalls everyone higher ...but those same calm winds and clear ceilings and DPs like last night, over-achieve by several... I've hypothesized that the atmosphere not including WV ...also has some vestigial thermal cache if perhaps several days of processing. But than that doesn't make sense at all when we consider that deserts routinely go from sub freezing to very hot in afternoons. So yeah... I guess I don't have a f'n clue on this one LOL

In fact re the country-side flora ... the sugar maple - type species are noticeably fuller in the leaf bloom just since yesterday. It's like we went from 1/3 unfurl to 1/2 or even 2/3rds in the one night. I wonder about the temperature sensitivity relationship in vegetation ...if single preceding day's/weather patterns can trigger a specific night of robust recovery. Interesting. I mean it could just be coincidence, but yesterday really 'felt' more like shorts weather ( thought I kept with two layers and pants like a middle aged noog lol ..) anyway, and the leaves were tinier. I remember thinking about this, too - then this morning they clearly and discernably seem more open/bigger ...casting more like real shadows on the ground.