Typhoon Tip

It does ... sure... I was just musing to Will in that blown up storm thread ... read that - it sort of offers some perspective. Namely, if faced with the same hemispheric look in the models, as they were selling ( and trends prior notwithstanding...), the whole of it would be wise to consider a more favorable outcome for snow and at least impact of some kind. This was weirdly nuanced 'wiggles' in the NAO down the stretch, weak-ish S/W mechanical forcing in the flow. Idiosyncratic if you will -. Altogether it didn't 'synergize' a better outcome - sort of defeated the original layout of potential.. it happens -

Yeah..I thought we were slated for that last night frankly. I thought there was a decent shot we'd awake to some 4- 5" 'reach-around' gratification, to alleviate the total "bust" complexion of this ordeal but, ha! Even that got stripped away - wow... I don't know, crawling Pac waves up underneath a western limbed -NAO was supposed to pay off a week ago, and frankly if faced with that again ...we'd probably be best to favor a better outcome - we would. But it just doesn't break in favor this time. The governing players and parameters at the hemispheric scope supported more. Alas! Details got in the way. Like, the fact that the Pac waves are too weak really. The NAO situated less than 'as ideally' as modeled days ago... nuances - So, having seen this result this morning I'm now more inclined to go with your bust characteristic ( I think it was you ? ) or whomever mentioned that last night. At the time I was hesitant because I was waiting out those PA/S NY returns which as I think you hinted, it's kind of odd to awaken and see that did nothing here ... I think I see why though - We used to call the 'lift/RH robbing' up at UML ... part of Miller B where they carry a dark dagger that sometimes back stabs. It's when lift/ongoing action associated with a primary comes into PA...then, the secondary takes off E of the Del Marva. Its new lift and inflow cuts off and robs the primary ... New shield evolves associated with the secondary, and what this does in total is it 'gaps' the total event and sometimes, that gap places SNE in it. This at least hints as having something like this take place. Considering the 4-6" results out there, then seeing this CCB head flirting with the Cape now.

Sort of in agreement here ... ( just using your post as a launch pad - am aware no one cares... ) Kind of a broad-stroked perspective but given the past 20 years ? considering the lion's share of snow verification did not take place in a -NAO, and were in fact Pac guided, then adding that this recent NAO's handling: those two aggregated facets = f* this man None of that lends to even wanting to engage in this as a hobby at this time. Ha, can you imagine the professional that is by trade, forced to examine and eat the shit of this pattern? I mean the poor schmuck - LOL I just would rather swipe the eraser lever on this drawing toy known as Internet weather charts... and start a brand new paradigm. If that means returning to the faster flow, progressive needle threading, so be it. We had better productivity that other way. No but seriously ... it seems this convoluted pattern/nebularity isn't handled very well. That Euro 00z cannot be resolved - even by that particular model's touted acumen and monstrosity of daunting complexity built in, that's a convoluted exercise in fractal apoplexy it's trying to manage in the D5-10. And given its own recent performance during this pattern ( *relative to just that regime ) ... well, it's beyond its wheelhouse anyway. What leaps out at me through it all... the PNA - go wonder ... Pac guided ... we just can't seem to pop a western ridge/+PNAP expression, which is needed for basic wave position mechanical arguments.

It’s snowing out; is that a bust? I’ll definitely go with a disappointment ... it won’t clock 16” ... probably be 2-4 which was on the table as an option in this. A bust is a snowstorm that ends up a rainstorm. A bust is a blizzard warning that you wake up and it’s orb sun 9°F with flurries. objectively we really didn’t have enough to make a definitive call. It’s like we were in a favorable governing parametric look all week and it just didn’t come to avail of it

Lol ... don’t worry. No matter how much one disdains winter ...rest assuredly, July is still coming.

James ... it’s weak with modest mechanics. There’s proportionately modest rad and ground truth returns. it’s no mystery. Weird things can happen but convention and reason isn’t giving anything more.

Prolly getting 24 hrs of appeal outa this so ‘always look on the bright side of your life’ aspects still look entertaining with a steady diet of pac waves - may just be a numbers game ... 8th-12th still on the table and there’s the 14th too

Yeah I confused you by using the expression ‘useful to us’ ... really the impetus there was just the NAO handling alone. ...but if the blocking were batter positioned it may parlay your next system there. Which could be okay anyway ... just sayn’

Sorry ... models pos‘ed their way up to this “-NAO” which I put in quotes because this? is not a very convincingly useful block ... Its S displaced so far it’s really more like a a ‘north based subtropical ridge.’ I do however believe if the 1/4 system was deeper mechanically rooted it would have fed into that and perhaps modulate more of D. Str vicinity ... Short of that/either way that’s not a good look

I know ... like that said ...it's delayed - just the crucial amount. I'd also suggest that if this wave coming through rolled out better lead S/W ridging, it would have enticed western aspect of the NAO to emerge faster - positive feedback. I think that's what the previous guidance was doing, having subtly over assessed this they may helped that along. Chicken and egg sorta relationship perhaps...

This is actually a fantastic observation, likely unsung. It pertains to the NAO handling. What you are observing there is an NAO .... NOT blocking. heh - Bad deteministic handling of NAO comes in three delicious migraines: Where; amplitude; when. None of these were handled well enough in this situation leading. But, forgetting the frustration in not getting this event and keeping it purely Vulcan ( haha ), there were two factors that doomed this: -- the NAO handling above -- the system itself being too weak to mechanize it's own stall And what's interesting is that these two can feed off one another and ( sort of ) 'synergize' a more favorable result. But being a weak system, and then NAO delaying another 24 to 42 hours to blossom blocking - if one goes back three or four days, you might see that it was slightly faster and more aggressive in the guidance. Have you ever heard the expression, 'the hurricane creates its own environment'? Something similar.. If the system were stronger as it was arriving, it would roll out it's own S/W ridging. That would then move up and super-impose over the emerging -NAO; we call that a 'constructive wave interference,' and in the advent of that, the two then synergize a stall sooner .. it all feeds back this thing would have gone boom, stalled... I think some of the models had this thing over assessed, and that was causing some of that to paint erroneously on the charts when this was mid range... I've actually noticed that mid and extended range events are being routinely over amped in all the models.. interesting. I actually think - personally - another problem in model handling is that the flow has gone too far in the relaxed direction. We replaced too much velocity and progressive shearing tendencies, with a nebular chaos where entropy is large - well..."entropy" means disarray and when we see the flow features propagating along with only two or maybe three dz height lines and are curling around everywhere like a spaghetti on plate.ugh. Thing is, luck is involved. I mean, either a nebular or progressive regime can have entertaining events in the runs breaking good or bad.

Bingo ... Yeah, I was just musing that in the blown up storm thread, how the NAO seems to be shirking/'back-stabbing' on that previous look. I speculate as the PNA emerges we'll start seeing the velocities ( all around ) speed up again. ...Not sure why it is important to know that - maybe it's because I don't like storm prospecting in fast flows.. personal bias. Sorry lol.

mm nah ...that spoke of S/W shrapnel isn't any kind of silver bullet in my mind to be blunt. A strong more mechanically usurping presence with the main gig, as in ..all along, would have damped that out - that's sort of emerging because it can in that sense... This thing is too weak... It always was... We were focused on conceptual circumstance too much so, and didn't consider the finer Meteorological analytics ... it is what it is. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. Oops - ... or at least, for some of us we ignored the factor-ability ... NAO management didn't help.. I think there's like a "Miller A NAO" and "MIller B NAO" ... borrowing the poor schmucks name lol. The former is what happens when you have a fast careening flow at mid latitude from Japan to Chicago/DCA.. and then it quickly abates or significantly stems... There's like a "latent heat" slosh back in the hemispheric scales ..that we observe as a height eruption. It's ephemeral though ..it surges in and the decays.. We can see this last 40 days as kind of an anecdotal suggestion of proof - though it is a one time-lagged circumstance granted. But, we got cold a month ago... the flow was fast. We even ginned up a decent snow even that was a CSI juggernaut from NYS to CNE in a narrow band... Then, the flow relaxed, ..really anti perpetuity to the longer term trend ...and the NAO emerges ... Now, looking ahead in the models, the NAO is actually significantly deconstructed by even D7 now...and by D10... the operational Euro and GFS ... sort of argue it's gone.. Or significantly neutralized. But what is also happening? The flow is speeding up again. Hell..the extended GFS is back at it with 140 knot L/W wind ambience by 300+ hours .. la la range or not, since we've suffered winters like that for years now, heh prolly has legs. The other type of NAO seems to be fashioned top--> down, and is more connected to stratospheric vortex disruption events. Best example is February 2006 ... preceded in early January that year by a massive SSW and downwelling propagation event ... a latter circumstance routinely bouncing off skulls that use SSWs, which is an annoyance for another time. 20 days later, boom! What's interesting also is that the flow around that form of NAO stayed fast that year.. It was more " resistant" I suppose ... to the onslaught of a faster hemisphere. So, I think in the typology of the NAO ... one has more predictive skill than the other - the one that is polished and anchored by the total hemisphere ( top down ) may be accompanied by better performance. Contrasting, this nebular stuff.. it's like looking at the eddy whirls in a simmering pan on the stove, and trying to figure where all those are destined ... Makes sense, when entropy is large, the models suck -

As far as folks interpretation of the models ... I mentioned this last week; we are in sort of 'uncharted territory' for modeling performance in a bona fide -NAO ...particularly if/when the blocking influence is situated over the western limb, where it is more exerting in terms of wave spacing ..etc. I think that gives a little bit of a pass here - give it a week to marinade and cool off anger ... and perhaps when in the throws of a new potential, folks may be willing to look at this that way. The last 10 years of modeling, a time in which there have been - I think - three product migrations in both the ECMWF and GEFs orgs... and even in the GGEM ... Hell, they've created a Franken-model called the "NAVGEM" in that span - a tool that baffles the mind as to what in the hell they were after... Is there a plan for that? We can assume the engineering arm of NCEP is not neolithically incompetent. They must perform 'pattern specific' regression analysis/testing with 500,000,000 operation instruments... But ya never know. Still ...I don't find it a mere coincidence that this 'nebular' sort of break-down of the erstwhile stretched R-wave rage/velocity regime, along with a spring-like bookended NAO, happen and suddenly the models suck perhaps worse than the great white hurricane busts of the 1980s. Not an accident.. Separate observation and study? It occurs to me, this NAO may have originated as a 'slosh back' from a velocity suspension at hemispheric scope. Same or similar, it reminds me of those rage streamed winters that took place in 2018 /// 2017 /// 2019 and so forth, when those seasonal jet relented as ending, the NAO did the same thing then.. Only this one is happening now ... I wonder if this fast flows that specifically enter breakdown, can be statistically lag correlated to all -NAO emergence ? Fascinating study..

I think we're too focused on idealized shapes and configurations ... The z-coordinate is killing this entire aspect... It's just not deep enough - the mid troposphere isn't cold enough. The heights are too shallow in that trough ... 542 DM until it coalesces E of the BM with a bunch of v-junk, and barely beneath 540 ...when the surrounding medium is only 552 is simply not enough gradient to get this thing to "spin" faster, drill sooner, anchor quicker, ... and bring the fuller spectrum of cyclogenic output - including ...heavier snow. As a result, we get a middling low ... probably mid way up the cyclone spectrum for our climo/ West Atl Basin which yeah...if it 'could have' detonated and organized sooner by way of better forcing, we probably get a higher impact 9:1 paste bomb. I agree with you though that there's probably going to be a stripe of something going on along the wind tunnel as it passes thru - I think there's room for error assumption there, but we'll see. So not a 100 loss - as you mention ... vorticity trajectory and associated wind maxima therein is/are ...moving along a decent climate position .. .at least through 24 hours... Scott had also mentioned that the wind max/trough morphology wasn't "curling" soon enough upon reaching our longitude - I suspect that observation is connected to the paltry feebleness of this over all thing, too. If this thing was more mechanically powerful, it would roll out "tendency" - if not observable - lead S/W ridging...which would act in concert with the emerging NAO aspect to slow this whole thing down sooner, and anchor a stronger system... It's too shallow..too weak to get this down. You know... I find a subtle irony in this... We have been at a high premium for years YEARS really, to get a real -NAO look established... a time spent in a fast progressive rage much of the time... We finally get the NAO or NOA prone atmosphere and it goes too far the other way. The Euro's D7-10 really ...I mean, it's not likely to verify of course.. but, it does nicely demo a nebular pattern that is franly almost impossible to discern the R-wave nodes ... We can't run a deterministic solution off that either. Replaced one asshole pattern with another...and we can't seem to find the happy guy in the middle - lol Kidding but seriously tho - I don't have any faith on the Jan 9-12th period at this point. The 00z guidance continue to erode the NAO down to neutral in the operational runs, and the that flow is till looking rather nebular and non structurally deterministic ... I'm not really sure where this is heading frankly - ... I'm bummed to be brutally honest.. .because I thought about much of above all week but didn't have the balls to believe it would k'o this ordeal. I relied to much on the larger picture. I feel pretty confident that the model handling of this also struggled with it..interesting.

Well I’m out. still see this as a 3/8ths maybe 1/2 percentile cyclone ... relative to our cyclone climo. But my snow mmm might reduce but holding out till morning.

James… Even if the GFS low ...captures and backs in it’s too weak it’s dynamics have been maximized. All it’s going to be bringing with it is likely orb sun a few flakes in the air and a nasty wind. If the whole deep layer structure gets more intense and has better wind Max whirling around it might enhance things further that way ...but even then when storms are maxed out and they retrograde they don’t tend to bring heavy action with them.

Also retrograding weaker lows usually don’t bring heavy QPF ...

What the f are you talking about. Quit evading the point… 1/10 is less than 3 inches that’s the point nothing else people are wanting the siding with a big one not the little one there is no other point that is the attitude. Stop it As far as the NAM ...for the record I don’t think so but that wasn’t the original point

I still think it’s worth it, Will, to evaluate the domain spaces of that, and compared it to those other meso models; because really that smacks to me as though the other models are not feeling the weight or pushback from the wave compression off the NAO ‘slowing’/’blocking

At the core of it all is an unhealthy emotionally charged/guided decision circuitry ... Its a devotion to this engagement - I’ll give you that much LOL

The fact that nobody “hedged” bets on the lower cycle solution for QPF amounts ....is the attitude

In most settings sure but this is a unique one… And the euro like I said if you go back a ways ( probably missed the post) has been showing poor continuity just the same as the others ...having said all that I think you’re right ... more likely be correct, but I wasn’t really specifically addressing that likelihood ... I was talking about the attitude - whatever model has the biggest impact is the one that people start defending.

Does the NAM’s domain space actually include the NAO…? I think it might overlap a little bit of the western limb - not abundantly sure frankly but I think it actually truncates. It’s just a hypothesis I’m wondering if maybe the meso models are just not seeing the full exertion from downstream or the full manifold of the wave length compression

It’s the attitude. Wantonly trying to justify 3 inches of QPF in lieu of the model that says .01 is not the right attitude. And it shows a bias. That bias leads to the grousing and bullshit that goes on after these things failing/ when they do I’m sorry it does - long years of experience ...