Typhoon Tip

Teddy’s motion appears to be more NW but we’ll see

The American public has a lot of work to do to restore the Globsl community’s faith and confidences.

I mean the first three clicks of the GFS off the 18z has Teddy essentially moving NW by NNW ... It's been moving due west since 18z - ...okay

Uh... yesterday morning they were more left... the longer term trend is not really that -

One thing I did think was interesting about LA was the geology.... They have these cragged topography jutting out around the perimeter of the San Fer. Valley floor, which can look similar really to some of the juts around here... But hiking up trails where you slide partially backward in loose fragmented rubble ... the rock faces along side were physically peculiar. The surfaces look like solid stone but one can literally scoop a fist full of it without breaking a nail. I later learned it's called 'decomposed granite' ... it's like that because of eons of rattling by geologic seismic energy... along with erosive weathering from all the falsey anticipated El Nino winter forecast bluster .. heh. And then you look around up the hill at angles ... there are platformed homes built mid way up higher elevations - huh. One wonders how they are footed/anchored.. California is a powderkeg for natural disasters as we all know but hiking those hills that skirt the valley and learning about decomposed this and San Andreas fault that, and then touring the Getty Museum ... fantastic views, really. The facility is perched a mile or so elevation above the Valley floor and over looks LA skyline from the far side ...and you can see this caste orientation of honeycomb neighborhoods packing the floor, said mid elevation luxuries, yet higher above these ...palatial older money estates lord from mountain tops. It's got this like built in conceit that is only tangible from that sort of Holden Caulfield-esque perspective - an exposed fragility. First hand, it was an interesting tourism experience for me back in aught '03... Hey, I got to see a test screening for one of those earlier Harry Potter's .. second movie I think it was. But I came away with a sense that it may be fun to visit, but wouldn't want to live there. There's to much of an elitism overarching the "serfs of the valley floor" vibe about it all. Creative writing: I call it ethos-narcissism, where the region itself thinks it is a movie star - and it's genetics is just as vapid and undeservingly idolized to me as hollow celebrity worship really is. And you have to toe-the-line of your echelon and feed those above you to fulfill their cravings for your envy.

It's the 500 mb that's the fascinating aspect - It actually shows a similar evolution in principle to the Euro, just that the implication at the discrete level of impacts and results is different - time and space... Euro is weaker as a surface result, and has the dynamic mid level interplay between the cut-off and the capturing all taking place up in the Maritimes...which is probably statistically/climate-wise more likely but just comparing here.. Also, the GGEM had this sort of fusing interplay yesterday on the 12z version but lost it last night ... Sandy showed us that although these look outre, we cannot toss them out of hand because Sandy in fact did exactly this - although there is distinguishing if perhaps crucial difference .. in that the governing flow was heavily being instructed by a fantastic early season west-base NAO plunge that set up blocking near the lower D. Straight and sent everything into the MA including Sandy - I am not sure that is all in the cards here... But, in a vacuum, yes...cut-offs can sometimes fuse in -

it means ... noooOOO snow for you, ONE YEAR!

I wonder if any baby that was the 'honorary guest' of one of these beef-wit's quasi-narcissism events, where the parents impose self love on their unborn baby in the form of a reveal party ( oh my god, my baby's pussy or schmenze ! ) ...will grown up in painful secrecy coveting the information that it was in fact their pussy or chicken-toe that was the impetus for millions of acres consumed, dozens of deaths ... and indeterminate carbon fluxing into an atmosphere/environment already reeling from cumulative generations of Industrial farts - 'Magine that dude or chick... "See what my pussy is worth! "

I thought we were supposed to be in a climate heavy hit couple of decades for TC ... Maybe I have that off ? But I thought it was supposed be a 20 to 30 years periodicity of Atl frequency. I'll look that up the steadily declining dependability of the Internet as a veracious information source -

Yup that too - ...I thought of that after that post, can't forget all the observed shear. Just look at 98L out there sitting S of the CVs over the far eastern Atlantic. Entering into the MDR, we see yet again, west ripped CB's with their vils some 200 nautical mi downstream of their of the LFC's point .. like 10 minutes after cauliflowering. Obviously some sarcasm there. But I've never seen that much E shear at that latitude. I mean it's like it has the same mass-transport efficiency as a westlies' jet at mid latitudes. Really rather remarkable. You know .. I remember back in in the 1980s as a youngin', relying upon the education that we all had to rely upon as fledgling tormented weather-souls, 'TWC' tropical update guys at 22 minutes and 52 minutes passed the hour. Outside shooting hopes... up! be right back - ..heh, anyway, they were always hinting statements like, 'with east flow in the tropics becoming more prevalent, we need to watch x-y-z' ... John Hope was one. I bet that guy'ed roll in grave if he knew there was a Jovian wind band coming from Egyptic enchanted lands of aridity and plague. ugh. Yeah Chris - this is probably the under-cast of the HC working lol

Congenitally disabled tropical Storm Teddy Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...TEDDY EXPECTED TO DEFY SEASONAL TREND TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFULLY IRRELEVANT MDR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS IF EVER... 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 15 Location: 13.7°N 46.0°W Moving: WNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Max sustained: 60 mph Public Advisory #11 500 AM AST Aviso Publico* #11 500 AM EDT Forecast Advisory #11 0900 UTC Forecast Discussion #11 500 AM AST Wind Speed Probabilities #11 0900 UTC Wind Speed Probabilities Arrival Time of Winds Wind History Warnings/Cone Interactive Map Warnings/Cone Static Images Warnings and Surface Wind

As far as Teddy and track guidance... wow - the models are relentless. Just stubbornly offering zero hope it's nope! only less than climate solution can ever happen. Typically cyclones do not yank violently N out of 10 to 15 N latitude like the models are insisting will happen. That is supposed to be observable by this evening to 06z ... in that time frame, we should see it moving NW or even NNW if you believe in some climate-flouting guidance types, and accelerating to not only do the odd thing but to do it like they really mean it! lol Anyway, there seems to be some sort of impermeable wall of steering conduit that has set up out there near Bermuda's longitude. We seem to running two distinct TC seasons: one east of there, and then whatever takes place 'home grown'. It's almost like we need to keep any MDR wave flat in the troposphere ..a.k.a., weak, such that they sneak under said axis, then once west and they start developing vertical engine/mechanically, then there is hope for carnage seeking cane enthusiasts that don't think that pandemic and wild fire dystopia is enough -

I'm actually more intrigued by the 'sputtering' tendency of the Basin...everywhere, perpetually - something is acting as an inhibitor .. flattening development curves. Any cyclone attempting to formulate in that seems to be encountering crucial thermodynamic disruptions - obviously ...otherwise, we would not have Teddy's taking 96 hours to mature through 20 kts of wind and 10 mb or pressure coring - and it is not 'SAL' alone. This is not just dust. It's dry air whether there is SAL layering involved or not and it is unusual to be that pervasive. As well, its persistence suggests it is being supplied and hemispheric scope. Regardless previous week(s) orientation of dust from off of Africa ..timing those mass ejecta ...all of that. Irrelevant, because the dust dosing into each individual TC has not been the same, yet they all act to sputter, ...immediately by logic argues that the cause for sputtering is elsewhere.

May help if we stop using words like 'exact' at/for locations that are below the synoptic, probably more like super-synoptic scale, when in context of seasonal speculation. Assuming for the moment that you are just using common figures of speech with these turn of phrases, even so neither is within the purview of capacity or any skill to predict therein/from ... not even close. Seasonal forecasting is done at continental scopes and scales, where therein we may break down into smaller quadratures - such as, the SW, the NW, the Northern Plains, the S ... SE, the Great Lakes, OV, MA and NE regions, although we could argue the these latter four could be grouped together. We say these regions will average arid, wet, cool, or warmer, respective of their longer termed climate normals ( usually at minimum a 30-year mean .. but often extending to 120 and so forth ). Then there is a subjective vs objective 'grading' of the seasonal forecast - whole 'nother head game. If a seasonal forecast 'suggests' dry and warm (say) in New England, that just means that at some point(s) along the way ... whether persistently albeit modestly warm bias, or, a few shorter duration hot spells interceded by cool backs ( where an when we can have epic blizzards mind you!)... then the winter forecast will verify similarly in either scenario - but the former gets the genius tag because the latter had those three crucial and fairness obscuring idiosyncratic fight starter storms... ha. I see that a lot though. Some enthusiast waiting in their silent observation, comes in and says ... 'so let me get this straight, your saying my backyard' ... No seasonal forecast can do that. The best you can do is look at seasonal forecast for warmer(cooler) and wet(drier) interchangeably as they may be, and roll the dice and figure that if the forecast has any substantive value, 'I may experience days warmer(cooler) and wet(drier) some > 50% of the days'.

Lol - Oh my god - run for the hills! Hurricane Tickle-Me-Elmo Yeah there should be some at least half-hearted attempt to inspire fear. Like Hurricane Darth Mull ..or Blade or something - actually for that matter, why stop there. Hurricane Denudation outta sum it up. Or the great Hurricane 'stationary lawn-mower'... Yeah, back in 2020 I survived Hurricane heads-rolled

Might even be symbolic to say so ...for lack of better words, but do I think I recall there is a historical signal for a frost/autumnal intrusion of polar air mass through NE 72 hour prior to EC runners... I think if memory recalls some of those 1950s events had this... It's all in the timing. This run is close to bi-passing Teddy with that trough that three runs ago the GFS was using to rip the cyclone out and rocket across the N Atl... That's why it is adjusted west. And again to re-iterate, ...it becomes transitively crucial that the models time the polarward migration right because if they prove too eager to pull Teddy up, than a bi-pass gets more plausible and then suddenly at D5 we have big solution pile of uncertainty steaming on our plates.

Yeah ... Teddy's accurate track handling over the next 60 hours - I think - may be more crucial in the evolution after that ...namely as far as how much/when the polarward motion takes place. One thing that Teddy is different than predecessors is that the cyclone's present location and recent evolution have all been quite far to the S ... I've been toying with the notion that models are bit too eager to pull Teddy out of such a deep latitude. Perhaps this is because there is a combined 'beta drift' superimposing along with a subtle weakness in ridging/steering nearing 60W. Alone these factors may not be enough but together it's too much and models start the curvature process early. Just the thought.. the 00z Euro does already appear to be demonstrating a slight polarward bias though - it may be interesting to see if that bias continues to emerge over the short term.

Depends how we are determining the eye structure... if rad: Seeing as the far side of the perceived eye is actually near the edge of the rad range - even at long channels... - it may have more a closed eye than we think. But I have seen recon messaging -

We mentioned over an hour ago this was RI prone - ..yup, and this also matches the conversation we had two days ago, re there is perhaps a precedence for strengthening west of 70 W across the Basin -

Saturday night looks like a more all-inclusive region(s) frost and probably freeze threat N of southern VT/NH ... I'm sure this is well advertised at this point but that synoptic appeal is quintessentially perfect for an ice in the birdbath morning come Sunday 7am.

Heh... we know winter's near anyway. Why? Because the GGEM has formally put out its first solution that just couldn't wait for the opportunity to infuse a cold core tropospheric cut off with a captured Teddy out there in the extended around NS - it's a right of a passage for every season that the GGEM do this ...annnd, it signals a hard stop to the season 2 days later according to that model's imagination.

well...sure - we pretty much beat the ACE proof to death 45 days ago as a suspicion, and went on to substantiate it two weeks back - yup. Sally may RI here over the next several hours. Now .. I am not sitting in that scene where is NHC's spectacle of elaborate displays, replete with super-ensemble guided extra double top secret AI techniques at my disposal .. but just the coarser products available to the plebeian hoi polloi ( us ) all indicate Sally suddenly earning some 4 to 6 new pressure contours in the closing frames just before stuffing her way down the gullet of the Mississippi's mouth ... Hope it tastes good NOLA! I wonder if there is a 'RI model' ?? Last I knew there's not much that is well enough understood about the exact triggering kinematics for why some systems go ahead and implode their pressure wells, when other systems in seemingly identically favorable circumstances ( ...heh, like the entire 2020 season ) don't. But here with Sally, it seems to me that outlow is suddenly expanding rather nicely around the western semi-circle ... with those radial striations evident that morph when cloud patterns start getting 'stretched' outward. Meanwhile, hot towers are clearly tapped into the supreme thermal sourcing ... being that they are clearly halfway to the moon in elevation. Since the models were tree-ringing this bitch from about this point in time going forward through the next 18 hours anyway, and these evidences are now emerging ..they sort of support one another. I don't like 90 F water with shear dropping below 10 kts while models are showing that pressure evolution - they are not RI models... perhaps they are physically detecting without discretely constructing deeper system.

Paulette may not be done in the Basin .. some guidance’ perform a galaxy loop and hint zenith moving back S around 45W. Heh 18z guidance might be an early attempt at left correction just beginning there wet TD20 but we kind of saw that yesterday on the 18 and then abruptly it went the other way at 00 so we’ll see All models definitely make it a formidable cane though

Lol

It’s an early signaler but I suspect we run into gradient saturation and similar neggie interference patterning as it gets deeper .., Quickstart —> stalls and may be a late push ... been recurring theme