Typhoon Tip

Yeah but it won’t stick because the ground .., right

Sputtering continues ...

Not to be a dink but I’m pretty sure all those months of winter that year were among the top 10 warmest months in global history ... Something disproportionate like that though Jesus it’s been this way ..this continental folding really is favoring us in North America particularly in that ORD to Boston band we are like this permanent colder offset node because of increased tucking going on at very large super synoptic scales - You have to think Kelvin-Hemholdts waves almost like an analog but blown up really really large

Still seems hard to believe the Euro is going to be successful in defeating the seasonal trend of sputtering... time will tell

You know it seems like it’s been many years since we’ve had a bona fide across polar flow Talkin plane departs Chelyabinsk and doesn’t stop until Atlanta Georgia now I wasn’t paying attention and 2013 or 2015 for that matter back east here… But I don’t know if those were actually cross polar constructs and not just occasional dumps over the Alaskan sector out of a favorable EPO

Interesting... The Euro model versus the seasonal constant 'sputtering' trend like cars with blown -head gaskets limping into rest stops.. This is the most active yet abortion season ever... No one likely keeps track of that particular statistic: number of TDs and TS' relative to the mayhem people want to see them evolve into. Or is there? That would be neat number... .Like hypothetically, 1949 there were 34 TDs and 1 hurricane. In the year 2029, there were 20 hurricane and 20 TDS which became the former being the impetus. Those number can be easily inferred, sure,... but then rank piece of shit seasons in terms of number piece of shit - and this one is getting high on that shit list by the way... This season just can't get the upper ends and developmental 'tendency' underway. There's something going on with the ambient tropical sounding out there in the MDR ... something that is occurring beneath the observations of the standard monitoring, too... SAL? mm... perhaps some, but not really the whole gum in the engine.. If we look here, http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time= ... one may be inclined to suggest that is so, but only because these hot colors are built into the 'omg' circuitry of human experience... Fact of the matter is, we have seen plenty of fiery orange bands fisting across the Basin from off Africa in seasons of lore where category hurricane cut their way right across the Basin. I don't like the comparison because it does not seem to be so singularly instrumentally mitigating alone... Plus, the present MDR itself ..it's hard to know if SAL was 'once there' but has been fragmented by cloud production mixing it out, or if it those fragments were being pulled into zygote circulation coverage of the individual entities - which is which... And additionally to that, these entities are still sputtering outside that region...clear toward the Americas ...where the SAL is attenuated substantially.. So, I'm just not convinced SAL is the reason. Scott mentioned a month ago there were pockets of 850 mb dry air out there - I don't know if he meant that in the context of 'missing from initialization' ... Could be, because I don't believe MDR and adjacent regions really have a very dense physically realized observation net feeding the grids ... satellite conceit or not. I don't know... if there's a network of dingies out there with grad-students proving their medal by bravely launching balloons, so be it... Be that as it may, every system is belated and/or being retarded for systemic integrity at all times though... That sort of make the 850 plume theory less than likely to me - though it could certainly still be a factor. Or, maybe it is a cocktail of things like this... I don't believe it is SST or oceanic heat content/integral limiting though... We're on the ass end of 20 years of persistent positive anomalies pretty much everywhere... I almost wonder if the theta-e gradient in the vertical sounding between 700 mb and 200 mb of the tropospheric heights are wacky ... Tropical thermodynamics requires a conditional instability based upon dry air above ... It would be counter-intuitive as people are probably hugely used to hearing 'dry air inhibition' of some form or another in every context there is known to atmospheric dynamics. ... but, the way the tropical cyclone model works is that you have a hot rich TD flowing into the bottom ...rising and mixing in dry air above 700 mb...which cools the column internally and creates its own instability/ pseudo-lapse rate. What if there is too much theta-e above the 700 mb level? not likely... In the end it's probably just shear.. maybe. I have noticed the easterly component at mid and upper turret depths has "seemed" to tilt/stress system toward the west over a lot of these little guys/girls. In a general sense/scope, the horizontal mass transport at upper levels has to exceed the vertical depth in a pure geometric scaling for TC to develop.. If upper machinery cannot evacuate the incoming air.. .that's the ball -game

Probably would help if the environmental science ambit would f'n define the difference between drought and transient drought-like conditions ...with actual terminology. Like, call the latter something ...anything, other than drought and reserve the word drought for well depletion ... reservoir fish flopping and a shit flies. This level 1 drought ...level 4 drought shit ...? Obviously proves too complex for this general public to handle graphic "implication" and consumption ... they should save that for their internal offices and keep just have two categories for the proletariat/provincials called either brown-lawn, or actual drought. We've had 99 brown lawns and 1 drought in the past 500 years...kidding. The other option is never respond or engage in any discussion - perhaps discipline and choice - that begins with those US D M product suite graphics ..or has the words "dry" or 'drought' period... Obviously though, everyone in here is in here because they want to either be entertained by dramatic weather ...but for some, as pathetic as it sounds ( and is true ) they are too awkward to maintain a social life that is truly interactive... Now that we are in a forced distancing Pandemic thing, which is really a form of instinct/group psychology at populations scales stopping over-abundance therein, by unconsciously manifesting as a practicum (get it? can't f* and reproduce from 6 feet away - well, I can ...but most dudes can't)... haha... so for some it's like they "have to" read nonsense... or may feel that way.

Just based upon the veneer of this product, the present Atlantic SST anom distribution has lost it's tripole. For those less aware ... tripolar distribution of anomalies is correlated with -NAO ... The correlation is not 1::1 of course... there are seasons where the correlation pops more or less coherently - last year may be one of those where/when there yet tripolar look vs the NAO were distracting. But, this particular product up there appears really about as uniform NOT tripolar as I can recall the Basin ever getting its state into - which is interesting as an aside, because as of spring there still was tripole evidenced. One would not think summer season would be conducive to wind stressing though - the primary SST pooling mechanism. Be that as it may, it is important to understand that second "S" in the abbreviation stands for "surface"( in SST). I've always been a bit sideways looking when SST-reliance correlates with atmospheric modes. Because, I'm not even sure what that means in absolute sense: surface. 6 ft of buoy dipstick depth? I'm not sure what is measured as 'surface' in the field/industry. But my point is, beneath the "surface" there can be strata where there's like a 'thermal momentum' lagging or perhaps more indicative of the real state of the system ... masked by transient looks and so forth. Then, a change in the mechanical pattern of sea stressing by circulation/seasonal modulation exposes a different truth. We actually see this in the PDO quite frequently ...where instra seasonal ( or even time lengths of seasonal for that matter ) can cause interruptions in an otherwise smooth ~ 30 year periodicity of (+)(-) Pacific -Decadal -Oscillation. The Atlantic seems also to respond faster to short duration modulating wind patterns - which in a pure ballast sense of it probably makes sense considering it's a smaller mass. Does the class now fully realize the goal of a splitting migraine ? Tripolar was more prevalently as of this recent spring, but given Jerry's post, at least as far as the surface goes the season appears to have abolished. We'll have to see as autumn reigns in a new regime of sea stressing, if this new look doesn't prove superficial. Oh..and, tripolar means there's a more obvious cool band intervening two warm bands, all three extending between the continents - Having said all that... I have seen more snow and cold here in NE during neutral positive NAO, since the aggrandized marketing campaign over the NAO took place in the late 1980s through the mid 1990s when it's popularity became so extreme it actually changed the genetics that scaffolds human brain neuro-physiology so profoundly that we are in fact a new species incapable of seeing anything else in reality as having a separate physics. In fact, if the world fails to negotiate a mid-east peace treaty after 5,000 years of pathos heredity in that region of the world, goddamn that motherf'n NAO! So with that, I think it will take decades to prove that the NAO is not what everyone thinks it is - and I've actually been hammering this point for 15 years... yet, people still don't even understand how to use it. Which makes much of this missive kind of moot then, huh - What I also find interesting is that this historic super-position of solar minima curves ...that in theory superimposed makes this minimum extra super dooper minimum... should have a demonstrative PDO and AMO correlation - as the solar curve has a very convincing correlation coefficients with these oceanic teleconnectors - I think tripolar is actually the correlation with solar minimum .. this above may in fact be odd relative to that assumption.

Kalamazoo by chance geography seemed to always have brilliant white lake effect CB band NE of the city ... turn around and another band dark gray passing SW Training snow bands aligned such that kz was splitting the goal post. The best lake affect snow at that city’s location was when the air mass got super cold and everybody ended up in that kind of misting low vis crystal froth within an entire radar scope having tiny corpuscular nodes amid a level one green smear. 15F

Just cursory eval of this coarser version at PSU but holy shit ... Look at this gradient worthy of late March on the 12z Euro for D7!

two comments: - reminds me of the blitz creige in 1995 when there was like 5 names storms concurrent at one point. - what leaps out more to me than those acne blemishes down in the tropics is the shocking cold thickness layout across all of the eastern Canadian shield... I mean, that's not like a severed 850 mb plume there ...that's hemispherically footed absurd anomaly stuff - wtf... Looks like the destiny of this current GFS is going to inherit the eye-color of the present version's seasonal forgetfulness -

What a strange pattern ... all guidance agreeing too - That full-latitude ... hugely uncharacteristically coherent planetary wave structure for early September ( D's 6/7 to 10 ) draped ( actually 'raging' is more like it) from the eastern/NE Pacific to the eastern Canadian shield, while simultaneously there is a stacking hypsometric height depths towering over 600 dm E of Cape Cod like that ? That's ..I dunno, I've never seen that. For one thing, that should set up one helluva a Bahama suck fest right up the coast... Talking powerful conveyor pattern... Should there be any kind of TC nearing the climo traffic routing ESE of the archipelago down there, it's going to end up over Montreal in 24 hours... Assuming those excessive synoptic circumstantial anomalies actually set up that way - ... But that is a weird WAR structure... it's like why isn't that settling S into the Bermuda position.. fascinating. I almost get the wild notion that the season is attempting to flip prematurely .. possibly because of two reasons: The solar nadir is statistically correlated strongly to blocking; the excessive integrated tropospheric wind velocities are generating unsually early R-Wave structures. *BUT* ...while that is happening, the HC is usually large in keeping with measure empirical data... so, the models are attempting to structure these events over top - ... hey, it's a wild notion. But it fascinating to consider.

Yeah I thought of that after posting that missive ... there's obviously a risky assumption there on my part; that the interior/N-Maine would necessarily have storm-to-storm, comparable storm results any given location say ...in CT. Lol ... I do recall that storm, the "Megalopolis Blizzard" I think it can be Wiki'ed ... but it does survive in the annuls as such. Anyway, in the week prior to that, there was less contention as to whether a big event would transpire, but exactly where? The Mid Atlantic was higher confidence... not us. At the time it had a slow moving version of PDI vibe about it - savvy readers may know that storm cut off at LI ( or maybe PDII..). Mind us... circa 1995 .. 1996 modeling was hugely improving over 1978's era, or 1980's, but it was nowhere near what it is today; such that having a system some 7 days out in the charts back then, most importantly across multiple guidance species ( MRF and ECMWF and CMC ), tended to draw eyes and giggly banter over shoulder of the synoptician as he clicked his/her mouse - yeah..there used to be these devices connected to PC's call mice. 1993 was discussed in early Synoptics up in the weather lab at UML ... Man, miss those wide-eyed days of pure wonder discussions - weather wasn't yet tainted by life. We extolled how there is that kind of storm that shows up across guidance types weirdly early - they behave like stones tumbling along, directing the chaos of the atmospheric fractals around them. Everything else proves faux, but the stone is still coming... It has the ability to 'withstand' permutations and still maintain a coherent signal - they seem to 'own' there physical presence in the hemispheric scaffolding of the circulation. Therefore seem to have a reliability in the guidance. 1993 March was one; 1996 Jan was also one of these. 1978 Feb is amazing for early primitive modeling. But there's something else there ...almost a feeling that it's time. ..interesting I met Harvey Leonard at the tail end of December of 1995. I friend/undergrad who had interned with him thought it would be a hoot to introduce me to him - I mean... after all, we are geeks! We covet our celebrity's a little differently than pop cultural's typical pap. I was like, sure LOL. I think it might have been like a day or two before NYE ...or perhaps it was January 1 or 2, but the slow moving cut-off that was getting fed N stream cold streak shrapnel occasionally slipping into the backside of the mid and U/A circulation, adding to its momentum ... while is slowly buzz-sawed across the 35th parallel toward the M/A ... it was in all the guidance from D 7 in. I remember debating with the man whether it would be real early in its gestation, and whether it would be able to get above NYC's latitude as an impactor. I argued in favor of both... That call scored me an internship with him ... I think. Because by the end of that discussion, in studio at WHDH Channel 7 at the time, he asked me what I was doing for internship during the immediate ensuing spring semester that year. I was like...uh, yes Sensei. It was the first year I learned about deformation axis ...and what an opportunity to apply! That deform band arced up and that was what clipped us from N CT to SE NH... Above that band, 12" totals fell to 2-4" fluff with orb sun mocking through pretty quickly. I do recall that amazingly historic storm ... not really doing much above CON NH?? As a separate note...I think there is some precedence there for big systems in SNE. I don't think Dec 1992, or Feb 1978...were as big above ...oh Fryeburg ME as they were snow clockers for elevations SE of HFD up thru the lower spine of the Monadnocks down this way. That's admittedly anecdotal... But, New England is a vast area once we start including all six states and arguable eastern NY and NJ in the mix... We have climate zones for a reason, and sometimes these big events just can't really be physically big enough for everyone.

I wonder if there is like a 'spin-up' climatology? I have noticed some years that 'rate of intensification' is better or worse ... possibly, subjectively identified by saying 'the ability to attain a convincing gain storm structure.' It does sensibly vary from year to year. This year... struggles. We have had a flurry of weaker or sputtering systems that took days to attain TD status...and were in no hurry to finally categorize until trundling at times almost invisibly across the breadth of the Basin. Laura finally did stick tail in the air and present for the suitor in the Gulf, and even demoed a borderline RI ( ..was that? ) but...that's one TC out of 12 named systems that finally muscled at all. Contrasting, a year like way back in yore, 1995 ... that one was categorizing 3's like pez dispensing - I dunno...I wonder if matters but it seems we have above normal frequency at below normal storm efficiency ... kind of like aggregated ... or total seasonal IKE might be lower than one would expect for 12 .. on the cusp of perhaps 17 named season - As an afterthought ... usually when we find a lower IKE higher storm count physicality to the TC systemic ..that means there is a Kevin-like mole working down at TPC and a probe should be launched to ferret out the monger - "Look out! Category 5 cumulus cloud"

Do you like Science Fiction .. in general ? you shouldn't feel you have to post less. You're only going to get better if ...well, it depends what the goal of the engagement is: if you care to get better, one should say. Better at this particular pass-time, you have to throw yourself at the mercy of court of public's cuttingly incisive ability to fairly judge one's content... That's called droll humor - I write that way on purpose, because I am a self-masicist and love it when beef-wit plebeians who miss or miss-interpret subtle nuances of communication parlance if they parachuted onto a telegraph tower. Yet ... know all the answers - of course! Like me... Kidding kidding... jesus.

and no one asked... but I only care about snowpack if that depth record is in reach. If it's not slated in the pattern/conducive to having a chance, I don't care if snows 20" and melts in two days ... could not care any less. Alas! ... retention has an elemental pattern luck to it - it seems... We can have above normal winters ( temperature alone ) and have them be dry, wet, or white given to our latitude - we all know this. We can have colder than normal winters that are dry ... but at this end of the temperature extremes it's harder to get moisture involved without there being substantive snow - again by virtue of our latitude. Yes ...rarely, we get stinging toothache cold for merely taking is deep breaths in between a steady diet of rain storms. But in the general scope, a colder than normal DCA winter (for ex.) can still almost not snow because colder than normal for them is of course still well above freezing ..etc. Anyway, if there's a big snow event, then a cold snap at the end... then out there in the extended, there's some sort of baroclinic bulge formulating over the Missouri Valley with lingering -10 C at 850 mb over the OV and NE ... and yet further out in time, another cold mass gathering in a lingering +PNAP essense on the charts, it gets interesting quickly. Particularly in this sort of neo-climate tendency to precipitation more proficiently relative to mechanics ...by its own virtue that warmer air is concomitantly holding more theta-e ( water ) in gaseous form, so that contributes there. As an aside, I can almost imagine study revealing that 10 events of any kind, in aggregate, precipitate more in bucket totals than 10 events in the 1950s - We do have the benefit of two factors here: Latitude is just one; but there is a specific planetary atmospheric physics assisting cold air holding in for events to work in, during winters... Actually ...it retards warm fronts in summer too. But the topographic effect of higher elevations west creates barrier jets ... but, it's like the physical tendency to do so is a vector in itself, always there, as a 'correction vector' If the models are physically proficient, then the processing of the models that employ those rules will emerge the barrier jets and the general retarding of warm fronts in warm seasons... And they do vastly better at these aspects than the old/early days of modeling, bring about lesser need to correct. But, anyway... I'm extolling .. I just mean to say that our geographical feed-back for imposing colder air and helping to retain it, is different than the virtue of latitude alone. And it matters... Because I have seen it pinging and ZR mixed many, many times at Bennington in VT down to the Capital District of eastern NYS while it is S+ in the Orh Hills... these feedbacks have a way of pulling the entire troposphere down ...and that means the growth region of the precipitating columns are still evacuating down into a critical thickness supporting snow so ... this matters... Particularly in these dubbed 'SW flow events'... In a winter that is dominated by cutters ... FIT snows more than ALB - or... it may show disproportionately so relative to climatology in comparing those two locations.

Mm... disagree a little .. and this may be subjective - granted. But, we sustained deep snow here in interior SNE for 45 some days prior to the big thaw at the end of that January. In the absolute value sense of it, that's a reasonably dated pack. Bit more conceptualizing: I recall venturing deep into the lawn pack and seeing stratification of layers at 36" inch totals when cutting into that veritable glaciar. Also in muse how that resembled avalanche theory having differential snow types and shearing plains ... That compaction between storms, like tree-rings, obviously has to have retention working with gravity. Now ...this doesn't discount the talking point, nor its significance in brow-raising factor, over 10 days of positive departures at the end of January '96 all but destroying it - total if it were not for snow piles in parking lots. There were in fact three cutters in that time frame, the last of which drove 60 F DP clear to the mid els of the White Mountains; particularly how it firehosed the pack down to just piles down here, too. It was aggravating for my own hang-up on challenging years to snow pack depth thing I get a kick out of ... I was thinking the sky was the limit that year ... but it all crumbled... well, 'melted' is apropos. Anyway, I think of bad retention - in the extreme sense - as bear ground between storms. 45 days of stilted pack with stratification records like sedimentary rock ...doesn't really earn a bad grade in all fairness. And obnoxious thaw, sure - but 'subjectively' for me that's something else. I have seen years where we got near average snow and had a pretty coherent impression in memory of not seeing a lot of persistently white ground.

Now ... just have that be snow can that be arranged?

Watch East extended

77/75 here ...

75 here while earth and stone are still wet some 3 hours after it rained ... ooph. Feels like this is the muggiest it has been this year - ...makes sense...since Laura's guts got eviscerated through the region... Warm front finally made it through and now we have tor warned supercells up in NW mass...

Yup... I was commenting on the respective biases of the operational Euro vs the operational GFS recently; although I'd characterized it more as the 2nd half of mid ranges and the extended, both. That facet about the Euro has been very coherent actually - particularly this summer for me. I don't know if this has always been the case .. but I suspect not. Didn't the Euro get an upgrade at some point over the last 18 months? And I wasn't frankly paying attention last summer. Quite consistently I found that if the Euro did not already have the eastern heights, already containing western thermal layered heat expulsion by 84 or 96 hours ... anything it attempted to do afterward typically failed to materialize. It's had a vivid Venus imagination in the late middle and extended ranges. It actually just did this over the last three days; there were a couple of model cycles that created delicious fodder for this tedious petty summer's back broken debate idiocy. I just wonder what that means for model performance in the winter - I'm thinking it's not really indicative as the 'wave frequencies' in the atmosphere are whole-scale physically different but who knows. One thing that makes the Euro heat bias intriguing to me is that while that has been going on ...the model also has at times carried too much trough depth/amplitude modulation over nearer term 'dents' in the flow that dared venture into the initialization grid up over Alberta/Manitoba ...The model lustfully takes cumulus clouds up there and turns them into hemispheric guiding pattern change full latitude eastern Canadian geopotential anomalies and of course it is therefore unclear where it gets the mechanical forcing to do so. And... rightfully so the model necessarily dampens them to something more climate friendly by D3 and 4... Probably its tendency to foment D8 bombs of ISP in the winter carried over into the summer... so at least that old habit is dependable - ha. Don't get me started on the GFS... It's consummately 6 to 12 dm too deep everywhere by the mid range at all times, all year... I've recently been comparing the daily cycles, interval to interval against the 00 to 108 Euro heights across Canada going back a ways. I don't recall not observation this: what starts out as 1 to 3 dm cooler than the Euro with all trough nodes and surrounding medium, it erodes the medium down as much as 6 dm, while as much 12 dm at individual little micro SPV by D7s... That doesn't seem like much...but, it atones for a goodly amount of the GFS' raging wind velocities and apparent jet suppression... It's been right for the wrong reason too - it's perfectly hiding its bad performance by getting to ridge suppression the wrong way - so I wonder if it's being noticed...But, here's the funny part - adding to that confusion. The velocities have been high for years really.. What rages in winters, has been vestigial still lingering in summers a little. We have had anomalously coherent R-wave structures draped across N/A much of the way, no doubt because the increased balanced deep layer tropospheric velocities as triggering wave response at Rosby scales... more so than the typical seasonal breakdown I should say. The GFS is likely to go on scoring well for the wrong reason, having too much trough depth, it scours the tops of ridges down...lowering heights, which fits the unusual early expression of R-wave - perfectly cloaked error that way.

It's precisely correct - imho that is... I've been op-ed writing theoretical missives on this site that exactly illustrated that propensity to behave that way for a couple few years. Really, there are hallmarks of this tendency going back 6 or even 8 years too - It's been a gradual onset... It's seasonally lagging winters into springs; it's triggering prolapse of winter patterns earlier than normal with cold pops and heavy frost, and packing pellet virga CAA events ...snow storms in November are almost 50% return rates. Anecdotal incoming: but that was rarely so inspiring in my youth, and I'm middle aged fwiw ... living in a new realm. Since 2000 some 2/3rds of the years have featured either, snow in the air, or snow supportive air mass transports to Chicago and Boston latitudes throughout Octobers and or Aprils and even Mays. And you are right ... the mid winters ...not always so successfully appealing.. I believe the reason has to do with gradient saturation .. I keep saying this, people need to start studying this shit ... I am not making this up!! ( not directing that urgency at you per se..). The Hadley Cell has expanded some 2 to 10 deg or latitude laterally outward, north and south of the Equator, ..strongly collocated in time with the observed global warming trends, since the late 1970s ( https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ) ...it's all contained in there. Folks should really start reading and plumbing into that stuff because the traditional perspective of climate and seasonal modalities ... are becoming increasingly outmoded - But sorry I don't mean to preach to the quire...just sayn' As the HC expands...and here is the confusing aspect: The polar regions are warming ( particularly the north polar region(s) ) much faster than the equatorial regions in terms of scalar, measured temperature increases. But, the tropics absorb and express warming thermodynamically more readily because of diabatic physical modulation, ...which means...hypsometric expansion... for one. But, that also means that gradient increases as the balloon expands and encroaches on the mid latitudes. What happens when gradient increases in the geopotential depths? WIND Well... there has been a marked increase in ground-based velocity anomalies noted by airline traffic during this same time of expansion. It's all related... But, that is important because the x-coordinate velocities are beginning to exceed the stable Norwegian Model low scaffolding ( in the means...) so we are seeing a morphology in the distribution and typology of governing precipitation causes/ events... Having said all that ... I don't personally see how this stuff necessarily has to mean lower snow... either. Or even lacking cold for that matter. Maybe faster turn over between extremes - I could see that. I mean, yes the polar region is warming, but we're still talking -30C at 850s available to tap into in winters... I think what it is doing though is disrupting the storm orderliness - R-wave patterns are less able to remain stable...etc.. I see a lot more sheared out busted ravioli systems in the winter... Storms tend to move quicker too. But, that lack of orderliness ... that means by virtue one's winter is more open to buckshot odds... You almost want to land into a stable pattern like 1978, 1987, 1993, 1995 or 2004, ..2015 (fluke)... which almost made storms prebaked.. man those were great years .. I also agree with your ending comment - clearly as is the case with the GFS in particular, that model seems to just ignore the season altogether beyond D10 and rushes to Thanks Giving already. Pretty sure we are days away from a 300 hour Lake effect snow synoptic illustration on that thing

Try to hard? what... I asked a question - 'backing off what' ? also - that graphic is shirking comparing the model's own synoptics... too cold, period. One of those two gets corrected - either the synoptics step down...or that product warms getting closer. One or the other.... I've often noticed the Euro's graphical products consummately run cool bias relative to synoptics for mid range + ...although the 2-meter temp one seems okay - ..of course, Manfield CT is probably going to be colder than everywhere else lol

Oh of course... Sandy ...some 200 miles landfalling farther down the coast, still managed to fill subways of lower Manhattan to the point where near- drowning rats were squeezing out of the sewer grates and running up the access stairwells... And that was just spillover, indirect wave-action storm surge. That's the same as Katrina - few really discuss that Katrina didn't actually hit New Orleans... Battery walls? Joke - yeah..it's a good start. But a Cat 3 accelerator 'hooking' from SSE into the NY Bite waters would probably shut the city down and not as a euphemism either. Obviously FEMA and maybe NASA and whomever else org with wherewithal ..runs very sophisticated environmental impact models that are based upon geo-physical equations of momentum and thermodynamics, Earth, Sky and Sea. - man ...you talk about cinema! getting into the 'cutting room floor' and editing input parameters would be nothing shy of dystopian porn -