Typhoon Tip

That'll really glare on Wednesday ... least down here. Looks like light wind and 48 2pm ... that's the first real nape day right there. Fake warm incarnate - with gutter rivulets

Timing ... seems so- It comes in at dawn there ...after it was clear and radiated out pretty proficiently earlier overnight, then clouds over right then - cold "capping" ... and then system arrives and works it over a bit... But, by the time advection shift up here it's coming from a warm source with ocean S ..blah blah.. and feeble diurnal adds -

Yeah it's research required .. big time. Going forward, out of box presumptive approach to ENSO application needs more than a modicum of caveat emptor ... This year, frankly ...did not really look very La Nina anyway... It looks rather -AO forcing the hemispheric hand, while simultaneously a maintained velocity sensitivity took place below 38 or so N latitude. So it was very split ... ding ding ding! right along the fade latitudes where the Hadley Cell circulation kisses/meets the E along the lower latitudes of the Ferril Cell ( 60 or so N) Mind you, these are not concrete curbs in free space..these are all amorphous atmospheric mass tendency -defined. Anyway, the easterly trades of the Ferril and the westerlies around the HC...that is the cylone band at mid latitudes ( in the means...) and since the hemisphere is so split and gradient soaked in that region, it sheared - it's too much. It almost seems that if we didn't have the -AO dominate above 55 N ... we wouldn't have had a winter.

Firstly ...I'd like the attitude to shift away from "yours" haha ... yeah, it's not me, or mine. But I know what you mean - anyway, it is changing over time. The impetus there is/was ...we cannot use the institutional model of ENSO - necessarily ... The building is presently closed down for restoration lol

Mm... I'm not sure the El Nino was left to operate on the atmosphere in a vacuum - i.e., lesser unimpeded and allowed fuller proxy. The HC shit off sets the warm ENSO phase as canvas destructive interference ... just sayn' Although it is necessary to point out, these are not absolutes. The thing is ... we can have a huge mega-gongo bomb in any regime. It's just a matter of time... And 40 years isn't much in geological means and consequences.

Already over-achieving for me, personally .. I figured this for a shreddy mess on radar with light cat paws failing to completely go over to snow whenever it lights up, But alas! rad looks surprisingly opaque in that level 1 .. 2 green, and that may keep it wet snow at steady clips above Willamantic to Boston despite the NAMs intrusion of 925 mb warming

May be a situation that is unstable ... Accepting that... as of 00z operational versions ( and cross-guidance ...) none that I have seen, to date for that matter ..., have really shined on with much appeal that represents just how the warm hemisphere could be given the GEF's -based telecon layout. Right now... readers are, "meh, don't use them anyway..." and defer reading any further, either for that reason, or because I can't write small amounts.. Lol. But, I know what I'm doing. It has been a great tool for advanced prognostic risk assessment in the past. just this season, October, December and January events were all, in part, visualized utilizing implicit signaling and 'synergistic' awareness triggered by observing nuances in the cluster. I'm sure for hardened EPS users...they get the same inference there. They are not useless If the EPS were perhaps twice as 'warm' with its color/anomaly distribution Scott provided ...it would be supported by the GEFs. I suppose seeing the EPS modulating this far is akin to a grudging acknowledgement. It is at least partial, cross -guidance mean support. Even if the operational runs are not interested as mentioned above - which they really ... frustrating are not to an egregious appeal. Failing giving us the early 70 degree ridge bomb that the GEFs EOFs are allowing .. their putting snow threats to the 10th of the month. Not climate unheard of per se - duh. But, climate for dummies, climate is not a prognostic tool. Meanwhile, the operational Euro tries to engineer a D10 NJ model snow event as though the A.I. has become self aware and is doing it on purpose to be annoying. heh. I will mention, ..the extended part of that CPC, PNA prognostic curve has sloped back toward neutral ...Its possible that heralds positive PNA onset... that's not really climate supported with the La Nina ( which by the way... I feel like I'm violating my own doctrine by mentioning that damn ENSO state as much as I have been lately, because I believe still that the total forcing from that factor is being augmented by the HC shit..it's a new frontier in CC ...and though the latter is being researched in the ambit, I personally wonder if the present La Nina is not the hemispheric footing as much as it is La Nina and HC working as positive constructors ) Whatever it is parse-able and in truth contribution ... -ENSOs of these numeral likeness, and recent 12 month back grounds, presaged notably warm springs of lore... 2012 ... 1976. I'm sure there are others.

Looks like it's trying to be a 'little critter' ... not cold enough but rad looks solid

"age well" hahaha ...wtf. The woman's pushin' 80, Jerry - how well is she supposed to age - jeez

thank you very much ... wonderin' when someone might hit on that - It's not a 'blocking vs no blocking' question. Of course not. There are multi-variate circumstantial/conditional influences there ... You could have a PF to Phinn axis of evil, 30" juggernaut in any SD of blocking depending on what's going on to offset destructive interference, or adding to constructive ones. It may be that -3 west based NAOs are harder to do it.. .vice versa the other way or whatever, but there's no on or off about it -

I get the hyperbole ..it's all good. But, my thing is about the spring season as a whole, as not being like the last several - that's really it in a nut shell. I never actually put a price tag on March, per se.. although, I think that's the flip month. Yeah, I've had to use some demonstrative rhetoric, but .. when one is going against the tide, they have to employ more momentum to get a current of different point of view across ...you know what I mean. I'm not saying March will roast - Lol... though, like you - I wouldn't hate it. Admittedly... I think the EPS "coming around" - to early to tell, and the GEFs over night as also getting even more indicative of a complete and utter hemispheric pattern change... when then adding these to the climate modes of La Nina and HC expansion stuff... The three of those do not really connote -NAO and 2018 walking through the door. Nor do they connote packing pellet CAA days into May, either. Whether that torches March or April or May remains to be seen. It's like what Scott was joking about earlier ...how you just sort of prime your canvas with 'AN' and go from there? Well, we are add emphasis to the positive direction... So it's actually four layers to the warm spring idea: present telecon spread + La Nina climo + HC expansion + CC... Probably in that order, too. It should be pointed out that in terms of order of magnitude, the telecon spread comes first...etc...

Yeah ..the druthers talk - risky ... But I hate April. ...no no.. .I despite and loathe April climate - more succinct. March is negotiable. I either appreciated it for specter and awe, varying to hating and despising it just as much as April. The teasing sun angle that becomes more like harassment after the 15th ... gets irking really quick when there's no interesting meteorology to pass the time with, yet it may remain putrid outside. The impetus there being ... normally when one senses the vibrant aura sol's return, they want to be outside, but can't because of the latter. But, if there's big deal storm, I'm happy to cash in my hypocrisy chips smugly join in like I love it April? nope ... I don't give a f* Which is why I can so relate to the adage, "April is the cruelest month" - it really can be excruciating. I think in my life 1/5th were personally, subjectively decent. And there's no way to make an objective scalar perspective on that - because of that pesky word: "perspective" - to each his or her own. There are folks that - I believe - have that negative ( or anti ) S.A.D. condition that effects some 15% of the population. It's truly a condition, however lesser ubiquitously known. It is recognize by the psychobabble community, too. For these 'opposite' folk the thought of summer brings them down. Bright sun... warmth? These sensible baths do not inspire soothing sentiment inside of them. Just opposite actually, equally triggered ... just like the other end's 15% that experience gloom when the days dim heading into Autumn. If one is at either end in their 15% "dysfunctionality" ... can't you see how both get f'ed? I mean, those who need the sun get bum bruised by endless cloud mank, and those that need the winter they are leaving behind, so so without choice. Both sides now, as Judy Collins once said. I "think" I am neither...? More among the bell curve of society. Here in the majority we tend to be more modestly "mooded" by these seasonal aspects, if at all. S.A.D. in either direction is technically managing depression - I'm not a shrink... and having brought this subject matter to light in this particular social media has resulted in flame throwing in the past ( probably because it is not only on point, it touches a true nerve...). But, I can turn the pen on the matter for having lived and suffered by humanity's various vicissitudes for ah ...so many decades heh. Experience is a good teacher. I suspect some of the social media winter pirates in here are at least, leaning toward the summer, - S.A.D. variant... But, regardless of who we are... being cooped up with Pandemic distancing shit while the days cold out in people's yards... Not sure it is a S.A.D. issue one way or the other, because that is a directly imposing, miserable constraint on ones existentialism - so protracting a cold March is loathsome for a different set of reason perhaps.

You would not be correct in that assumption - There were those of us engaged rather extensively in discussion late last summer into Autumn, ..regarding the solar minimum correlation with blockings/ -AO ...as well as the SSW contamination/ PV break-down potential.. All of which transpired rather nicely... Not speaking for you ...but you may be referring to those who focused all their apples in the ENSO cart - but to that... I can only say caveat emptor ( ..that means 'buyer beware' ). We also spent considerable time discussing growing bodies of research that offset ENSO as the primary driver ( assumption ) in the framework of governing the hemispheric eddy during winter months. Of those who were ENSO reliant - ...they may or may not have considered the polar indexes, I don't speak for them either. But if that's what you saw, it is what it is. As far your "opinion" ...I won't try and change it, because I could tell you there is a train coming on the tracks your standing upon...you won't get off until you see the train. That's the way humans are, and therefore - at no fault to you per se ... - anything one says prooobably won't persuade your thinking one way or the other. But allow me retort with my opinion: ....that makes me cringe - sorry, it does... Who in the f would ever not try - that smacks as toe-the-line thinking. Adherence to traditional methods ... stuffing discovery and ( frankly ), as well as stopping what is necessarily a part the human condition, advancement. We are the tech species - we evolved to this point via collective intelligentsia and application of that which was gleaned by "trying" - i.e., the discovery process - and it applies here to...

Lol - Speaking of which... that D8 and 9 of last night operational Euro would be humbling for its raw power in angel-weeping utopian appeal. Going from a veritable Pandemic internment camp/ .. quasi lock-down, 32 F persistent shut out hell, merely make-believing the this winter is offering anything really interesting in terms of phenomenon to make eternity bearable ... to that ? It would be both sensibly and psychologically abrupt. The diaspora of the pressure cooking civility will be like that night the Pats won the Superbowl back in 2002 - the first one! ... when society exploded upon the streets stripping shirts in throngs of exuberant cheer, "Free at last; thank god all mighty, we are free at last " ( not to diminish the power of that borrowed turn of phrase! ) Limitations on that two day appeal are ... A ... it's not going to happen. For one, it's too perfect at this range and the delicate metrics cannot be understated. A fly fart would f* that all up... I mean, the set up could take place, but there are plenty of reasons to assume no. Spare the reader this time..heh. I will say, it's almost like the balm and beauty variate of the D8 Euro bomb phantom scenario. Now ... I'm not entirely sure that dubious performance goes both ways, but I suspect in this case ..them two hard-on afternoon appeals are probably an artifact of the Euro being too exuberant with western low heights and SE ridge in the ultimate sense. B ... snow pack? I'm not a big fan of this offset factor.. It's "almost" ( but not entirely so ) as meaningless as that good ole dependable rubery, 'the ground is too warm to accumulate'. Nonetheless it may play some roll because the snow pack in the region is not local just to NE ...it's extending W and N. There may be a magnitude threshold/ .. albedo for specifically solar capacity to heat - that's slightly different than capacity to transport warm air via advection. Different physics for heating there.. Otherwise, wow ... vitals on the first blue-bird days of the year. 1 ... timing is perfect. Fropa is prior to 12z on D8 ... no clouds. 2 ... partially confirmed by the 700 mb RH, which shows a large regional plume of < 40% RH ...which from this range is a decent metric/proxy for inferring cloud seeding/coverage..It looks like open sky on this run for the 8th, and at least through 20Z on the 9th. So plenty of sun, light wind at a velocity that's placating back yard mixing and bulging BL to adiabic compression depths... It would probably be a MOS cold bust easily - 4 ... Wind direction ... ~ 290 to 310 deg, and non aggressive velocities, and nearly parallel to the thickness contours means the actual CAA isn't really happening despite the frontal passage. That's typical of Pacific fronts... They are feeble for actual advection, such that other offsets like climbing sun and topography can easily offset. That set up is that incarnate! That looks like a 2-meter hover temperature of a 70 F ... I have seen it be 60 F over snow pack on Feb 10, in 540 thickness and open sun. Oh MOS has 48 not even looking I can tell you. You have a Pacific cool front toting modified early spring air across the NP and post that front, light NW flow with staggered 850 mb therms close to +5 C under a late February sun. That's usually a "d-slope dandy" recipe and they always bust MOS cool, particularly at this range - no hope or clue at machine numbers representing that 2-meter potential from here. None... Muse, that's the equivalent of the "Spring shot across the bow" for one. Even if that layout doesn't ultimately happen ...which I don't have very much confidence it will, just the fact that it's in the model means it is physically plausible, and has not been to day - sort of the same idea of 'bowing' to inevitability. Will and I have mused the opposite affect in mid to late August going the other direction ... the day may still make 70 but you can tell ...soon as the sun kisses the western horizon you're already 64 and by 8 pm it 48 ... 42 at dawn with a couple of car tops next to the bogs with soft frost... next afternoon is 72 ..then 82 two days later. It was Autumns shot across the bow - warning shot. In the spirit of reciprocity it's kind of like the same idea? Ha, two days later the GFS is trying to phantom a late season winter storm, too. Perfect!

Maybe we conjure up a nice swan song event over the next two weeks -

If folks were taking trends and indices and 'intangible' indicators seriously ...? they are all dead at least in snarky sarcasm ...but probably so the course of least regret -

Calm down - You are not reading it right, "pretty typical really". .. Only saying this once: 'all season' in the previous context does mean at every point along the way, in perpetuity - it means that it is a tendency ( in the objective context of that read ) to occur ALL SEASON LONG. Honestly .. your demon is that you are utterly obsessed with attempting to ferret out other people's intent by reading between the lines, and you are not even good at that...

Meh... I guess if folks are scraping to pad seasonal with any way they can ... it's worth following? But otherwise, that's nothing more than an aggressive baroclinic knot with subtending gradient whisking by at ludicrous speed. I can visualize rad returns moving from Alb to off the coast in 3 hours and it's over...having snowed but because the snow is like 7:1 showery in nature, it only wets the pavement and yard snow depths are actually less at the end of the day for having actually snowed runway oatmeal over a soft pack leading. ...although I have 4" of goose feathers over concrete ... That whole thing is in the process of its deep later mechanics being stretched.. its destiny to fall victim to the same aspect suffered all season: the longitudes between Chicago and Cape Cod, the flow gets pulled along the x-coordinate ...that "synergistic" tendency is damping everything that tries to survive that wave-space gauntlet through that domain -

Twitter-like version: Nothing's changed. Repeating theme past several days continued across the suite of modeling tech overnight. GEF's teleconnector outlook vs operational trend are in conflict. This could be masking a warm March "feel" Longer version: In fact, the gap grows between the GEFs and the operational GFS. GEFs telecon portrait of March 2012's cousin walking down our street looking for the hemispheric address... Whereas the GFS? ...it wants a sub 540 stasis look forever - so bad that it not only cannot reflect the GEFs, but seems to even compensate seasonal change/ natural variance as even vestigial in the dailies. Relentlessly asynchronous .. It's important because the erstwhile advertising for plausible March reversal and possible more sustained warmth in spring, comparing transition seasons in recent years .. depends on the operational GFS not being right. Lol - ...I mean, I'm on the up confidence side that it won't - but in the interest of scientific objectivity ... shit if I know for sure. The operational GFS has a real problem with N/ Stream domination. That may not lend to its being able to pick up on that which it's weighted ensemble membership is presently seeing. And it is concerted in the latter sense, too; the curves don't show a lot of "mop ending" - they agree on a +AO that's soaring now to ~ +2 - so ...doubling down. Yet the 00z operational still seems disconnected and suppressing the westerlies down beneath 38 N. One can identify it on the chart(s). Heights on the polar side of the westerlies, they are routinely and dependably some 4 to at times ablating down to 12 dm of heights colder than either verification, or ...any other guidance - usually by D6 and onward. By D10 and beyond, those error depths are quite noticeable, at times bored down to 468 dm holes as far S as southern JB during DJF climo. That strains Terrain likeliness to put it drool. 468 ...c'mon man, is that even found in the nucleus of Antarctica ... seems a bit excessive. And, well, ..never seen any other guidance or verification ultimately wend their way down to the exotic SPV nadirs as the operational GFS. ... sometimes it's hard not to muse that they are faking it? Like the model is just the blend of the ensembles, then just before dissemination ...they souped it up with some sort of turbo coefficients "correcting" it competitive with foreign markets.. But now they are stuck! They can't pull out because if they do the whole thing is like a spring loaded error bomb ...Lol.. 'Magine that? "Scandal at NCEP: Details at 6 - " Conceptual logic: It connotes a reason why the GFS carries on with a progressive headache tendency, particularly smearing its middle range deeper into extended. If the model is over amplified with cold heights... it has to concomitantly steepen integrating gradient outside those cold wells -- > velocity surplus is generated ... Ultimately, that stretches/ stresses the R-wave positions into the x-coordinate ( E ). Pretty fascinating actually - Summary: the GFS may be the last model to sniff out a warm anything in spring. It'll fight seasonal change as a hemispheric forcing. It'll fight the intra-seasonal signal ..as evinced at times like now, when the GEFs derivatives have warm balm looks.. it natively dampens those signals because the cold is keeping the westerlies S. I just have used the GEFs mean/teleconnectors HUGELY successfully, too often in the past years ...including this one, in make extended "tendency" call - sometimes actually parlaying usefully in a daily distinction. This served the October, December and January events very well... Pure GEFs... not EPS. Which is not to say the EPS doesn't work. I just don't pay for and don't engage beyond the coarse free-sites, with that ensemble package .. to really know it's quirks and usages. I do have a sense, however, that it follows its operational model closer. Anyway, ... There is no part of: +AO/+NAO/-PNA La Nina climo HC expansion and subsequent hemispheric forcing hypothesis noted in present research The fact that spring is ultimately actually coming as a Celestial mechanics imperative ( lol...) .... that ultimately suggests the GFS interminable suppression of the 540 dm in a blazer jet from west of Frisco to S of NS ...embedding nickle dimes forever, will be very successful.

Hm. Decent event after all go figure

3.5 “ surprised ... weak CSI look. S- 26 51 season

Sort of agree? I think we have an entirely separate, and quite new, behavior going on... Other Mets not in this social mediasphere - that I am aware ... - and I have been back and forth re the apparent ..increasingly more coherent year to year "book ending" seasonal lag effect. What that is, is that speedier hemispheric flow rushes seasonal change in earlier... and that pops off continental cold snaps ...atoning for why since 2000 there is a propensity for snow realization, either by supportive synoptics or actual in the air phenomenon, prior to November 15s. I know anecdotally/ .. existentially that is true in my life, which is about split ( bottom heavy ..) around 2000.. I think I smelled snow air 10 times and saw it once in October in those decades; since 2000, half at least if not 2/3rd of years at least in the synoptic sense... But here's the kicker - almost a pun too .. As the gradient hemispherically steepens with the onsetting boreal winter heights...the sloped/ gradient effectively transforms the hemispheric mid latitudes into a progressive velocity saturation... and that tends to off set the curve trajectory jet structures ( tends to people - we're not talking absolutes here...).. That mitigates cyclone proficiency some ... accounting for big cold N big warm south ...paltry mechanics that actually snow proficiently relative to, because they are containing more water vapor - so there's competing layers in there... But in the spring, the gradient relaxes and the hemisphere like, 'passes back through that autumn' framework en route to the normal summer nebularity.. And as it does, we get late cold blocking and packing pellet events in April and Mays - sound familiar... I think/wonder if this spring we may offset that that typology we seem to have established of springs as of late.. Because this will be the first time there is a temporal collocation of warm factors ... La Nina + HC + telecon clustering of warm mass indicators... added to seasonal solar ... It may offset the eddy tendencies as described. 2012 may have been a March that demonstrates that what happens and ... while it's insane to forecast a redux of a +8 to + 12 month ( yikes...) frankly almost see that year's leading indicators as a bit of a anolog here. Just waiting for it to actually show up in the models ... hahahhha seriously though

Hey no argument - ...if our druthers had an say in the matter, of course... But let me ask the snow/cold -anti-SAD crew this question: If you could flip a switch and guarantee it would be 80 on March 1, never to suffer the flag pinning 'rea, would they still be saying the, " Better off keeping it winter into Mid Napril " mantra, OR, would the opt negating to flipping that switch? See?? ...They'd negate - - disengenuous... Hiding some tormented hatred for summer behind that flimsy sounding "might as well -" thing; to which frankly isn't even logical. In spring, one should be looking for spring, be the moment and embracing of it and the environmental inevitability ... The modeling and weather prediction that assists that along - all of it. Fact of the matter is it's all nonesensical failure to face reality, hiding in the enable delusional bubble of yet another Internet etho-chamber. Ha, I like that No but this year I legit am hitting the change harder because there are legit reasons to do so.

I like this realism of seasonal change - ... It is a Feb thing too... I've often noted that the very first subtle sense of seasonal change is really them two months. First day of spring is like whenever the back break happens going that way - vice versa in August. Now, just add the other climate modulators I've been trying to get this obsessed straight jacket red-eyed chair rocker crew to think about... doesn't end well for protracted winter enthusiasts. Now, whether that means March 3, 10, ...17...20 ... I speculate this spring has as good a chance as any in lore for doing more of sloped rise out/ less cold recidivism

So I guess in a nutshell ... there are signals in play here that support outlandishly warm March ...probably April too. It seems weak acknowledgement followed by "it's not over " ... isn't really acknowledging that possibility - I mean, WHAT's not over - ... like in 10 minutes... 10 days... ??? no one said so - just in case - but ... If March burns one and they feel spurned ... your choice -