Typhoon Tip

I may swing by there in a moment of curiosity .. but, the appeal of the game has become passe' I was dormitory champ in college ... as I had a life - clearly ... But that was like a Japanese fighting fish in the tank full of guppies... I wasn't "that" good, not really. My precog was maybe 5 or 7 moves on a good day, which was enough for that setting. I did okay online at speed chess .. but I think I capped my skill and wasn't exactly polymathic with the board and to really be a name in that world you gotta be one of those cats that walks up and down a panel of active games taking turns kicking assess of throngs of people simultaneously ... I never lost to "fool's mate" but never bothered to learn many openings..I just always did well with king or queen's pawn then night to bishop two ...and wait for the aggression of the other side to expose and oops and commence chopping them apart.

No way!

I really, really liked that "Queen's Gambit" on Netflix - well written .. I guess it was based upon an actual novel/period piece from the mid century last. The producers/directors did an uncannyingly superb job at shining on that era's decorum thru cinema - you could almost smell the carpeting and old ashtray odors in the gaudy art-deco 1960s lobby's - ya know? And the costuming and acting was sooo on point for like 1966 hubris mixed with that fake politeness from that era of America - And the chess was fun!!! My close friend and I used to hang out on Game Colony . com back in the day... Jesus that's like 18 years ago now - my god. But we were still young-ish then and would play speed chess through beer goggles until 2 .. 3 am sometimes... We always played our best game right at 3 beers... Her thing in the show was tranq's. Something about passing through that phase of inebriation ... it dulled distracting clutter from the mind, but was just before the synapses gapped too largely hahaha... Man ... we got to 2,800 hundred once with my guy, "TakeMyPoints" - it was a great way to ensure games. You'd open a room and wait ... and some 1800 Kasporavian wannabe cloaking narcissist would happen by and take the bate every time. Zomb! We ended up taking his/her points most of the time... One time ( at band camp!) the person was threatening to go to the site admins because we falsely named our selves - man, ...the idiocy you get on those sites ... beautiful -

Yeah.. more than less - sorry ..I don't mean to be priggish I just have years of internet experience and typically more the 2 back and forths for some reason results in an hour you desperatately wish you could have back - lol... It's not that I went to x y z... I happen to be right - period wave interference is a real phenomenon in fluid mechanics and when you introduce a new wave to a system of dynamics ..it changes it intrinsically - it has nothing to do with me being arrogant or having gone to Brown... I am actually humble and agreeable much of the time.. but I don't like to yield to fake news - hahaha... kidding a little

I was just looking over the UKMET and the Euro from 72 hours out to the end of their respective runs... It's funny - it reminds me how sometimes a line of awesome thunderstorms in the summer seems like it can't miss ... then, the outflow out paces the initial axis ... and triggers a new line just to your east, and the original line then starves ... you get shit - the na na na-na effect We'll probably do okay and get something for someone somewhere out of this.. .whether it's just the NYC subforum or up our way ...whatever, but, that wave careening into the MV goes out into the region S of NS long after our system has been completely negatively destroyed from the flow, and then it generates a new storm too far E to even get NS ... It's like a metaphor for thunderstorm line robbing -

the cyclone we see IS a response to the jet mechanics associated with the S/W - what you say has no logic or Meteorological/physical understanding ( then..). those jets in question are different because of the interference - so yeah..in fact, it IS causing the GFS handling the cyclone - the cyclone isn't coming from nothing - ..it's there BECAUSE of the GFS fields in the GFS - sorry... I can see this is going to aggravate you and I'll step out now ... I'll just say, you need to bone up how cyclones develop and why. What you said, bold is precisely and exactly wrong -

Not sure what you mean - what is? The lead wave nearing the upper MA there is not nearly the same size and presentation as it was days ago, and that's the point - the following wave over the MV is shortening the wave lengths and compressing the field and is a detriment and is negatively interfering - same interference pattern... may vary in details, the the essence is still the same.

Here...I'll help elucidate the point ... both really, yours and my previous re the higher degree of morphology of flow structures in these Neptunian patterns... Here is the present 12z, 60-hour GFS' 500 mb set up ... courtesy of Tropical Tidbits compared to 'Prev' going back 12 or 14 some odd clicks... note these difference back then, to what has emerged since and is being modeled on this 12z version for that particular time - pretty clear what's f*ed this up for us good and proper:

For anthropomorphic kicks and giggles ... ... in a way it would be poetic justice in the event of a GFS coup - We spent the better part of a month recently, clearly in outcry over the apparent decay in dependability of the operational Euro model.. How it 'just wasn't the same anymore' this, or it's been 'wretched' that ... I admit, I engaged in some of that myself. In fact I still argue it wasn't very good in the tropics by actual proven empirical data/verification .. Even in this thread, when the GFS was huge the other day, wasn't the Euro less leading that run? If we go back, I'm pretty sure that huge GFS solution ...what was that 7.. 8 cycles ago now, it had like 25" inches in the interior. Yeah, Saturday's 18z ...etc..etc... I think the Euro was less and I recall some posters ridiculing the Euro in that same mantra... There's always hyperbole - yes yes ...of course. But, there was more than than mere expression a month ago when/where there was palpable deriding in a culture of doubt over the Euro ... So now, we sans the GFS in outcry ...and have to eat shit and accept a the Euro because it has more - "while" the Euro ticks S... ho man - that's delicious

Know what'd be somethin' ? What if this thing ends up actually low end/Advisory ... and while licking prognostic wounds and dodging the usual assortment of subversive sour-grape motivated trolling practices... people are distracted from seeing the next wave becoming substantive. That latter wave is quite coherently interfering badly with this thing and has been getting more so annoying in that regard.. Maybe as it comes in to the Br. Col coast, 'magine if it ends up coming in hugely powerful...? Shit..probably what happens is this wave ends up 4-6" ( not bad - won't complain...) but it'll sweep the testosterone seaward so the next one just wants to go to sleep... And we get one of those "Miller D" - dry Nor'easters ... otherwise known as "coastal Dunce storm" ... 980 mb 70 naut Mi SE ACK with flurries all around it ... You know, that ICON model does show another cyclogen over the ocean between Hatteras and Bermuda toward Friday because of this, which is a correction toward more of that... See, jokes aside ..this fast progressive stuff is also highly mutable and you can get these morphologies seemingly out of nowhere - hence the lower deterministic value when one is suffering this pattern. The whole week still could be a work in progress.. I'm not predicting anything just sayn'

I keep hitting this phrase in my internal monologue - 'it's a race' It really is... I mean, the GFS is right - if perhaps 'too fast'. This thing is pancaking ... en route to being squashed out of existence by a "failed 50/50's ability to back slow the flow" - don't get me started on that NAO's typical absentee fatherhood on this mo' fugga ... I'm partial to blame too - haha... Anyway, hey, ...least I said there was a possibility on page 1,000,000... ( about a billion pages ago...) that it was possible the progression wins and well... too early to completely rule it out but you're odds are fleeting at best for slower solution to happen... Anyway, it's really again a matter of rate of decay versus does this have mechanics enough to still get the deed done as the wave's swan song? I think the GFS is too fast - owing to it's speedy progressive nature ( anyway..) it's sort of like getting to that shearing aspect too quickly - .. .On the other hand, I could see the UKMET being too conserved the other way. Course of least regret? (GFS + UMKET)/2 * cosmological constant of electron double-split uncertainty principle = X

Mm. Ya know ... people who engage in this distraction are really after the cinema the weather charts offer; and there is a story and thematic arc there, just like any story that gets told… And it takes a good deal of one’s imagination hence “design“ to turn those pages. In a sense I think most of the people that are hobbyists and Meteorologists .. are all like designers – or at least carry that trait in common…

Just another perspective ..but fwiw, here's my bullet point analysis: * the total tropospheric wave space is deamplifying as it is moving thru.. * the GFS is uniquely qualified to snif this sort of phenomenon ..because it carry's on with a bit of progressive ( sort of ..)/ speed shearing bias, anyway... Therein, it may rush the delta(dampening)/dt process. * the NAM ( using that as a dipole scenario... ), tends to carry on with a longer term NW bias and amplitude tendency - it may be it's non-hydrostatic/ in situ pseudo adiabatic management offering nuanced additional latent heat feeds into roll out ridges... blah blah...That forces backward and it curls more NW with no compunctions in achieving majestic storm intensity whle doing so, viola! Storm blossome 20" totals in a "very realistic" 4 hour span ... * I think a compromise may be in order. * As an ongoing 'reasonable'/consistently useful deterministic method: when one or the other major player guidance types does not budge, most of the ends results in those cases end up exhibiting vestiges ( more and less) of why that guidance did not budge... that's code for watch - the GFS won't be "completely" wrong here. And the fact of the matter is...it's not already ? * It's not - the hemisphere suffers from speed surplus in a progressive pattern which ( oddly enough ) ( as an aside...that garland of progressive rip is winding around underneath - at least as far as the GEFs have it - a strong negative AO phase ... Hmm, the two are in contention. It's interesting... ) ... So, anyway, for now I think there is enough evidence not to auto-toss the GFS when trying to be objective here. I would also question big totals...while not discounting the idea of a more significant impact, because there is till some uncertainty in the 'sensitivity' of the system morphology due to what is still presently relaying off the Pacific out west into the trough.

I don't know ... is there an official metrical sort of definition to event minor vs moderate vs major event ? I remember in the 1980s into the mid 1990s.. .back in TWC days of "weather cinema monopoly" ... and even the local TV weather personalities would refer to minor events at 2-4" .. .moderate as 4-6" and anything > 6 was major... Now, seems that's hugely contingent upon conditioning of culture/society ...sociologically adaptive - long words for the fact that we hand out 10" snow bombs like Pez candies since 2000 so ... Maybe that scale - subjective or not ... -- needs to be redressed. Haha... I think a "new scale" that is acclimated and more relative to modernity at present, might be anything 3" has to be achieved before entrance into the minor lounge. Say 3-5" is a minor event... 6-10" is a moderate event... and > 10 is major. It's not just snow board climate and acclimation, either... Tech in snow removal and maintenance makes those lower values sort of outmoded - so there's a practical angle on this too. I have seen 14" of snow between 1am and 2 pm more than just a couple of times since 2000, and was able to drive around on fairly communicable roadways ... and other traffic day in the lifing it -

Yup! - boom I can see you and et al were on to this facet overnight so no need to get into large vs smaller scale destructive interference sermons, ... but as I was cursory evaluating the guidance, overnight ... ..As far as this social media/public depot goes...there has been a tendency to ignore and/or not consider either way, exactly "why" the GFS was doing what it has been ...In lieu of chasing turns of phrase that protect the heavier snow chances and/or chastising it for being less entertaining - Lol... There was a nuanced ...I wouldn't call it 'nod' so much as a 'hm...' behind pursed lips look over at the GFS by the other guidance... That ICON ( which I still am uneasy and lack personal confidence in using due to ( lack of experience + it's C- handling on the last ...)/2 ) , really tried pretty hard to show the wave damping that the GFS has been insisting, as being more neggie interfering.. In fact, both runs now dampen our beloved S/W spacing to nothing S of Maritimes - someone post yesterday some excerpt taking from somewhere else .. how this was a scenario where the whole structure was "...increasing in strength so that is why the GFS was wrong" ...uh no.. Even the Euro was normalizing that wave down leaving...I think there's a lot of invention of plausibility and that we suffer fake news in here just that same ... Lol again... Anyway, all guidance at this point have a goodly mass of isohypses impinging/bullying into the backside, back through the mid lat's of Apallachia ... into Thursday and even Friday. You know...if that gets a bit more ( and several GEFs members are already flagging this ...), we end up with some kind of 800 to 700 mb easterly jet that stays sort of in position post this thing's eject seaward. Even if weak sauce, it's doing so in a saturated or near saturable column... Could be good for a band or two or broken patches of on-going Currier&Ives holiday parade detritus ... I disagree with the Euro and GGEM that the pattern goes banal and uninspired afterword. It seems the model battle is really that these two higher resolution Global numerical solutions are consummately attempting to offset the sped up Hemisphere anywhere beyond 4 days... I think the 4-D variable system/smoothing is a brilliant concept but it's outmoded in a hurried environment that is proving even chanllenging to the teleconnector statistics - the wave spacing is adaptive to the faster flows and it's sort of taking relative EPO and NAO and PNA mode derivatives ...and allowing wrong weather to happen relative to each... I'm definitely seeing some weirdness in the tele signal --> verification tendencies as not behaving quite as tight and cuddly as decades ago... One reason for that is that the faster flow doesn't appear to allow, or situate patterns for long enough - the residences are moving on... and, lengthening R-waves cause them to "split" which also disrupts the mass continuity ...leading to unusual statistics... But I'm pretty sure you've stopped reading this by now so ...sorry -.. I only mention it because this thread technically did mention something could be in play late next weekend - Anyway, for those that are still reading, the short is that the GFS is probably not as off as it was meme'd to be over the last 30 hours since that one juggernaut solution the other day - when attitudes toward it were "surprisingly better" - gee... I suspect the compromise is in order, until this immediate 12z run ...18z, and 00z are absorbed into the processing - there is still wind momentum in the mid troposphere feeding off the Pacific ...so just because the trough isohypsotic nadir is nearing Vegas, it's still getting fire hosed into the backside...and probably safest course of least embarrassment regret until more of that is actually sampled... Hell, for all we know, ...the 12z runs suddenly help enthusiast - ... I almost/also wonder if the wave mechanics causing that sag Thu/Fri lag ...might also be over assimilated? In same vein ...it could prove under assimilated... and then we got a problem...

? ...uh, no -

Yeah I’m not feeling that either frankly I’m thinking 6 to 10 for now ... lollipop for teens under impossible to predict meso axis’. Option for a more robust when the relay continues to succeed and I don’t think these meso versions going so significant here as the relay gets started is mere coincidence. You know the northside ens/model smear usually does not end well for S outliers. Just Sayin. ...If the relay comes in weak sauce then the GFS gets lucky for lack of better word.

It’s basically like that first superman movie from 1977… Where he flies around the planet like so fast that he approaches the speed of light ? GFS is trying to do something similar with every feature it detects ... tries to take it from that position 90 times around the planet before the next cycle comes out…

Know what would be kind of funny or interesting…? Is if the GFS never saw it – like… Even in now casting it comes out with that model run and it still has that painted like that when it’s snowing ass plus plus almost to Rutland Vermont I wonder if that’s ever happened

The whole world has gone mad… It’s like even some government and officials and scientists seem to bias when not swept away by the e-psychotropic culture. They’re taking these just climate disproportionate absurd numbers and running to the hysteria bank with ‘em. I mean you’re not gonna get 20 to 23 inches of snow spread out over that vast of a pan dimensional area from a middling mechanics storm I’m sorry you might get an excessive total close to 18 out of a couple of meso nugget thunder snows in there I don’t know but you’re not getting the entire interior of Massachusetts under a glacier like that from this… … Unless it like slows down stalls and gets a little bit deeper and cranks in CCB for an additional 6 to 9 hours. Again 18 inches in a narrow isolated band maybe that’s the most likely solution not throwing up plausibilities for ratings

You know it be funny… It comes in so wack that it actually ends up going all west of us lol

Yeah...I mentioned this a couple hours ago so sorry if it's been seen already but, this relay off the Pacific isn't coming in a slug of wind max...the axis of the trough is well inland, and there are still 90kt wind flags stabbing into the western side of the trough, so it's got a bit of lag jet mechanics feeding in.. That might impose additional morphologies in the runs -

I'd lop the top 1/3rd off those ... but.. that's still a major event - probably doesn't mean much to a civility, no -

For concept/philosophy I'm actually intrigued by whatever the Monday system does ... It's contribution to a 50/50 construct has been noted ... but not for that reason. The N/stream is a wild card both tomorrow and Wednesday ... If the NAM is right about its NW positions/translation axis of this first system this week, the 'synoptic conveyor' hasn't really changed or entered a pattern modality. The next may obey a similar instruction as it is passing thru the same scaffold synopstics.. Both systems are really in the same PNAP orientation ... I still believe/think that in this particular circumstance(s) this week, proper sampling offer subtle influence flip regions into more contention across narrowed corridors...so a slightly increased potency in wave mechanics outta the E Pac is likely to mean a quasi-Miller B scooting 150 vs 75 ME SE of ISP and in a fast atmosphere that's really 2" versus about 9 at Worcester ( or more meso band depending)... But, as said ..that's a general sort of philosophical rule if you will - if the relay comes in more powerful it's going to torque the flow into more S/W roll out ridging and this thing'll likely end up both slightly slower and turning Polarward leaving the EC at more angle -... and we're getting more CCB expansion in that case.