Typhoon Tip

Sat loop suggests we clear even in the E ...~ S of a EEN-ASH type axis. But I suspect with high hot sun boiling the llv moisture left in place, and some modest positive shear in the area...if that band between the Pike and Rt 2 does get appreciable solar skies may destruct in convection ... In fact, that may be the case anywhere the sun cleaves through or continues to shine. Regional LIs are -2 or -3 ...and the sounding isn't really capped. Triggers may be lacking ... I'm noticing that even tho band between the decaying mid level deck in C-NE and the area N of NYC resides on the cool side of the warm/stationary front, the wind is light and not showing a lot of impetus in moving from E to W. Typical BD mechanics are not really part of this. Modest positive anomalies at 850s lurk well N ...indicating this air mass is shallow under an oblique warm frontal slope. -marine contamination within shore hauls of the eastern coast ..10 clicks inland maybe. There really isn't very much higher surface pressure N of Maine doing the more typical damming and BD chilly low level jet. That changes the map a little on whether those CT zones can warm up significantly ... and it may also allow of more sfc heating realization between the Pike and Rt 2 as well. Logan may be 54 F while it's 64 F as near as protected nooks up Arlington Heights, ...and 74 out near FIT... 84 at HFD/BDL *IF* the present sat trends hold. Obviously more convective sequencing would limit

Maybe elevated lows weighting the results ?

Helicity in the area tomorrow

Just gonna make tomorrow that much more annoying...

just going to comment on that - yup ... same up here along Rt 2 in Mass. In fact, it was 58, 2 hours ago.. but the cloud stopped back building over the elevation caps and sun took over, and an impressive temp surge hard to say if it is all sun. I think the warm boundary has made it into the region ... if diffusive in nature. I mean it's not being analyzed that way at WPC but ... that kind of surge after 2 pm can happen but it usually requires an air mass change assist. interesting.. 71 now... 13 up in basically an hour and a half.

You know I was at the gym last night... doing my usual. I go to that gym every day when outdoors doesn't permit - which sort of puts it in my ID that it belongs to me? Which is BS of course...but I log the most hours there nonetheless. I wear a mask ...'cept, when doing aerobic... Treadmill, Elliptical ... Peleton cycling... the mask may slip down unknowing ...'cause when you're on min 45 and the end is in sight you may not even feel it any more. Normal not to... A couple of times someone, usually a 62 year old ( right ~ in that age group ) gets in your face and 'makes sure' you pull up your mask so it properly this and that... They don't work there. You've never seen that person before. What is it about that generation - I just fantasize punching their face and as they are vaguely conscious and bleeding from the nose ... asking what was more dangerous: was it covid 19, or putting their ****ing self-righteous unsolicited mug in my work out space to enforce a policy that is frankly still in a process of scientific discovery ?? Hmm... 'which one you busted nose superiority complex' I mean this asshole was particularly egregious ...instead of losing it, I just apologized obsequiously and said that it slipped down, and he made some crinkled brow gesture that I couldn't quite tell the full nature of which because of what you said - he was hiding his face. But he also gestured with his hand in a jerk movement, which smacked as agitated when I said it - like he's taking a risk... I mean, there are those not like me that will punch his face.. They end up on the evening news of course but...I have seen the mask related Jerry Springer bang outs ...

I'm encountering similar statements everywhere, actually .... we should probably take this/these posts over to the Banter thread ... but, I wonder if the distancing and masking and the general lack of contact and what hygiene has been implement... may have offset the frequency of other back ground "normal" infection rates. I have been thinking about this - we have to get Colds once in a while - even if we are asymptomatic ...the presence of immune activation is a vital aspect to overall immuno-health - duh..I mean we learn this in 8th grade Health elective - ..but, we are getting a dearth in numbers and occurrences in the 'white noised' statistics of the civility ... It may not matter ? Or, we could be setting up for a couple of waves of misery as we "catch up" - and the scare over whether it is this C-19 varient shit is going to be ad nauseam ( pun intended )

... three days ago - lol...

I write science fiction and have been published and I can tell you ... it is actually difficult to premise a sci-fi tech that out gawks the actual shit we are seeing these days - so... that 'fail' is not hard to do. ahahaha But yeah... how about, "Cryopocalypse" lol But I like 'sanitizing theater' .... Phin and I were musing a couple weeks ago about this "virtue signaling" shit ... You know, pulling up a mask when someone eye-balls you from the other side of the gym or hall as you pass by. It's a sub-class of the same affectation people feel they now have to do to deflect nosy self-appointed cleanliness nuns. I bet their kids never masturbate and grow up sociopaths, too.. OH yeah ...a great deal of hygienic awareness and sanitation is necessary - I'm not saying people should eat an Italian sub with black cake under their fingernails or anything ... but the 'obsessive compulsive' nature of it is a distinction that ... actually science is beginning to materialize, may cause more harm then good.

Personal conjecture .. so tfwiw: A slow death ... in fact, it may not entirely go away. There is likely ( imho) to be residual, elevated readiness that to some appears to teeter with compulsion ... - it won't be a perspective and practice shared by everyone or their affiliations, evenly, either. So there's that joyous vitriol to look forward to. So it's a bit of hypothesis but there seems to be a smoldering aspect of "social distrust" about this whole thing, as well. Most that possess a modicum of realism are well passed the lunacy of whether this thing was real or not. But ... they don't trust the media, and by media that includes all. The "Industrial Media Complex" ( I euphemistically refer..), to social medias like, well, this one and et al... Nor do they really trust the urban rumor mills, either. How can we? That probably doesn't lend to believing the risk is ultimately ever going to return to any pre- C-19' perception and practice, no. That's one factor among many... The other aspect is being warned by environmental science that we are probably passing over a threshold. Over-population, festering amid Climate-Change-forced biota drift/ species migration... These combine for loading unfamiliar infectious agencies at a faster adaptation rate than the new environment is capable of responding. And that 'out-pacing' is the whole loss of that battle. Those lend to new pathogenic scares, in the least ... if not unleashing new pathogenicity. And frankly.. that's not scare tactics - that's real. So some readiness and preparedness has to be remain in vigil - That probably doesn't mean we need to be fastidiously running around after everyone and lowering fertility with weird chemicals and causing tumors as germaphobic dim wits, no. That level of extremeness may ease off - ...in fact, much of that may never have been necessary ...

It's one of those days where every time you look at this image above... say once per half hour ... it looks discernibly better ( as in clearer ), yet, the sky over you never seems to change and the sun has no direct shadows. ...it's like deliberately waiting to the last possible gasp of cloud to make sure it's maximized the depth of butt banging the afternoon - lol

In southern New England ?

Even down in north -central PA it's doing this... You can see a stationary cloud production axis and the resulting saturated ceiling layer is a shit streak blotting out the sky over NYC some 150 miles away

It's comical ... we get a bust to keep it cold today ... and tomorrow, the NAM will be right! thus... we always "GET" to be cold - yay! just what we wanted - lol

Lol... I almost want to split my residency between ... any-f'um-where-else but here from mid April until late October, then return for winter. I bet if you took our specific location and compared it to every other point around the hemisphere at this latitude, we would find that this shit only happens here

If that convection doesn't form like the NAM has for overnight ... as I annotated above ... it may bust the other direction tomorrow - long shot.

Looping the hi res vis ...the cloud production is clearly elevation caused - these have an obvious orographic forcing aspect to them. It seems perhaps the low level resolution/ topographical featuring is the reason for the error/bust by models ... we have a WNW flow bumping over the elevations blah blah. Even the NAM's meshing missed this effect: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

If you're interested... It's because the dew points are still relatively low ... much lower than the ambient air temperature when the rain starts. As the rain falls into a dry air mass, the evaporation off the particles cools them down to freezing ( wet bulb temperature ..) prior to completely evaporating, so you're left with a sleet particle despite the temperature being relatively warm. It's a phenomenon ... not hugely uncommon in spring... I've seen rain with bouncing sleet pellets while as mile as 52 F temperature ... if it persists... the air temp will saturate down to say 37 and just be light rain - losing the evaporative cooling the cooler temperature, counter-intuitively no longer creates the ice.

Heh 00z NAM back S and cold Wednesday

Super moon is sick tonight. 7% bigger than normal seems like a small number but when you’re talking about a celestial object that has a way being a rather imposing result. I mean it’s like right there.

I seldom trust any icon of our celebrity fabrication driven culture. The real heroes are always drubbed up out of the silent sectors of sacrifice ... and the interviewee couldn’t care less whether they’ve caught a moment of charisma. They have work to do Betterment of humanity and the better part of valor have nothing to do with magazine covers and 60 Minute’s biopics. Having said that ... whether Elon is somehow masterfully conning the entire world or not remains to be “Socratically reviewed” ... but his company is physically placing humans in orbit ... etc He is in the least proven by air apparent to be a curator of talent and tech for those achievements

Cursory surmise on that ... it’s a disadvantage when needing to move quickly when the whole social structure has to move in an en masse... i.e bureaucratic limitation is obviously going to be speed. Contrasting ...free markets with a common vision ending up at a non-competitive goal ( or ~ less competitive )... rare as that may be, will be faster for being unencumbered during the entire life cycle of product evolution to delivery.

Wed may yet be warm S of ~ KMHT