Typhoon Tip

The absolute scalar point at the end wasn't intended for you, per se ... just sayn' The point and supposition ...formulaic en route to a hypothesis I am/was attempting is right there ( enlarged bold ) as a necessity. If it is very warm(cool), we'll talk. Hypothetical/boundary premise: I'm just creating hypothetical numbers to elucidate the point there... If the region outside of the ENSO ...which in a coupled oceanic-atmosphere volume of atmosphere is the entire planet... is already hot... what f'n difference does 1.5 C in SST mean when subtropical waters outside of the spatial domain of the ENSO band itself are already +2 or +3 C ...? It's a tricky argument to settle, no doubt... because that scalar thing does play an evil role in the consideration (ha). Fascinating... But, +3 C at 35 N... does not carry as much energy in the coupled system, as +1.5C anomaly does farther S - why? Because +1.5 C in a 80 F water column has a more energy stored in it than a +3 C in a column of 74 C... This complexity then gets far more grueling a prospect then asking this particular collection of 2020 unprincipled politicians to agree on the flatness of Earth! I'd think I might rather suck on the latter's pistol muzzle over having to solve the other one - Anyway, you get my meaning... so, gradating the force is also a nightmarishly complex secondary and tertiary derivative(s) in, and if/when the scaling of the equations and all that shit.. yeesh! So I just smooth it out conceptually ... The boundary of the HC has expanded too far beyond the ENSO domain ..such that the ball of the ENSO is bouncing around inside and not transferring momentum into the jet/R-wave middle latitudes ...because the lowering gradient once inside the boundary of the HC, is decoupling it's effect. Plausible evidence of this: The pattern of response behavior over recent decades with these NINOs and NINA regimes has changed to be less impacting. It seems neither has been very representative... The last "super NINO" (...which, that is not a distinction in conceit it statistically was that abnormal ) expressed very limited or at worse, manageable impacts around the known global regions. This sort of dimming correlation between occurrence vs impact in the total complexion is - in my mind - likely geophysical in nature ( i.e., more than 'chancy'), from having a warmer expanded HC into the lower middle latitudes. This has expanded the playing field beyond the QB's throwing distance if we want to beat the metaphor to death. If the atmosphere was more akin to 1955, and then we ran a super NINO like 5 clicks ago up underneath that ...? Phew, we'd probably have had hell to pay in enormous geo-physical responses, because gradient is the entire machinery of nature ...and...weather and climate - that's the whole game. I keep harping that...because ( not you but a lot of enthusiasts and others...) see El Nino and their expectation of what that will mean ... becomes too guiding. Has to be qualified ( in a sense). One my know that if A=B there is no A or B ...intellectually say they understand this stuff, but then turn around and their seasonal predictions are hugely instrumentally based upon the ENSO? What - Well...anywho... I toss almost all ENSO based forecast these days and assume if the season correlated, it's probably luck ...because the polar indexes and Asian torque guiding the total pacific in the wave absorption at the super synoptic scales, happened to come into sync and that gave a false impression of causality. ... It's very similar if not down right analogous to the MJO: If the surrounding atmosphere is in constructive wave interference, the MJO looks like it was the entire cause of why the circulation over all took on its construct... but, if the surrounding medium is in destructive interference... we pass through huge Phase 8/1/2 and end up with a Clipper ... So in that sense ...a warmer atmosphere and ballooned HC doesn't give the ENSO chance to even sync

Op ed: I am noticing already there is a tendency for higher mid tropospheric wind velocity anomalies circumvallate around the curved bases of troughs over southern Canada and we're still technically in a summer climo month. I'm wondering if we are seeing a portence of this winter ... I don't see the geo-wind anomalies being observed over winters as of late, as being merely flukes; consistency begins to argue against randomness. It has been spanning aggregate winters at this point in planetary in scope and scale is another point. But, it is conceptually/intuitively supportive in the notion of HC expansion introducing excessive geopotential gradient in the means where the HC terminates amorphously with the lower Ferrel cell latitudes... ( ~ 40 N ..which climate scientist remind us that boundary is not a discrete geography because the termination is seamless ...duh, it's free air). Tamarack posed a fantastic observation the other night ... (to me); paraphrasing his remark and probably butchering it, 'in my 60 years I see winters as having similar extremes in cold, just fewer of those cold extremes. Meanwhile warmer seasons or events that are warmer than normal within, are increasing.' That homage essentially nails it! But folks seem to be less aware of 'the less frequency of cold', instead focusing on whether it still gets cold at all - almost like a denial pathway... ( 'feels' that way). Even 2015... (December+February)/2 ... really mutes the significance of that February... it was like that February was bigger picture obfuscator that distracts from the fact that the December thing ...prooobably is getting more likely to occur while we hid in the exultation, awe and orgasm over that historic month later in the winter. Something like that...

D5/6 Euro continues the big severe look for me... ( 00z operational but the EPS bears reasonable likeness) Also... it occurs to me there's no definitive pattern change that suggests we are moving discernibly toward seasonal change. We are introducing some increased frequency for frontal intrusion down to 40 N over the continent - I don't see that as necessarily signaling that because you can have boundaries lay down across these regions in JJA of any year. I think folks confusing that "fair" assessment with calendar date and expectancy ..so labeling it as that. Having 850mb temperatures of +15 to +19 C on D8/9/10 of the operational Euro under 582 dm hypsometric bath everywhere S of Colorado to Maine is deep summer... - just imho. We have yet to observe a kind of quatra-hemispheric scaled coherent evolution of the pattern away from summer and into transition ... I also think that I may be missing the point here a little ...in that we're really elaborating on the 'feel' of days ...? If perhaps the early sun setting and earlier light-dimming in the evenings, combined with just calendar awareness ...these psycho-babble feed into that... But I need the the pattern 'break' toward fall and I'm not really seeing this - it appears to be more likely happenstance of the pattern allowing more cfrontal in an interval or two, coincidence with expectancy ... The front this week has shallowed in the Euro coming inside of D5 ... what's new, as it has subtly backed off the height coring into Ontario that it typically has to correct when between D6 --> 4's ... ( these are the summer versions of the D8 east coastal bombs that model entertains us with as a seemingly permanent model run to model run fixture ... only to become shredded Clippers - sarcasm!).

Good question... Considering the system as a whole… meaning the entire Pacific basin, there is thermal residency that’s going on out there that is consistent across seasons and normal seasonal variances… In other words it’s always warmer than normal, which has been a persistent observation probably going back 20 years now at least 2/3 of the time if not more I don’t think it really matters either direction particularly if an ENSO in question is inside crucial thresholds, whether weak warm or weak cool events. If they are within whatever that hypothetical threshold is they are damped Another way to look at it ...the band of SST’s that are cooler than normal, it’s just a tiny fraction of the entire Pacific basin which is still warmer than normal as an integrated mean overall so in terms of coupled oceanic/atmospheric physics I don’t really see how modestly cool ENSO really is going to force anything compared to that monster ballast of warmer than normal forcing that’s consistent everywhere imposing a masking more dominant lever. Nother thing to keep in mind is that when we say cooler than normal or cool ENSO and all that… It’s not like it’s sensibly cool water? It’s just cooler than normal ...it’s still warm equatorial water ... I guess if you’re right up against the coast of Peru in the up wells it’d be a little bit chillier by the time 1200 km west of the Americas on the Pacific it’s 74° water vs 84 ( cromagnon example )

Yeah...not to gloat but it was epic here ...that line congealed around 3:30 Keen to Concord NH and has just been crawling S fanning 55 mph timbre crackling gusts... nickle hailers, and pronged multi pulsing bolts jesus... Even flood warnings in a drought zone - ... thing is, the line is moving slow too - it's sneaking memorable for around here to have static outflow for 10 minutes like we had in Ayer - I mean more typically the tree tops lean over for a burst and then it's just breezy with heavy rain. This... ? it was like gust after gust of gust... And some people getting 2" of rain in 35 minutes... No Watch head scratcher.. .it's been a warning wall the whole way too. Ha... Weatherwiz must be apoplectic

heh...may have to cancel the drought along and N of rt 2

this is something we don't often see around here ... slow moving pigs... Man, severe crawlers out near Princeton ...and actually a broken line to Manchester/CON area of NH with embedded severe triggers in there... Can here distant low db reports from CB wall with glaciating toes poking through a vil curtain ... while it's sear sun at 94 overhead ...it's like ... what is this, southern Iowa - wow

just gonna mention that... Today sneaky scorcher... 94/70 here is no slouch for Augie 23 ...

Think we’re missing an important component related to climate change in this discussion about winter length versus winter intensity… The endpoints of winter are being skewed - although Will mentioned - by seasonal lag in the spring and by also continental folding causing early cold departures in October and November’s ...meanwhile on the gradient expansion in the middle of the winter is modulating extremes around general warmer than normal relative to DJF. It makes it sort of confusing to categorize because it’s “shortening” December January February but it’s in a sense lengthening because of the colder than normal transition seasons at either ends- Which in itself is obfuscated further because it’s really the patterns that look cold at the transition season and it’s probably only cooler than normal 50% of the time ...something like that

The 00z NAM has the Lifted Index down to -8 over eastern regions both late tomorrow and Mondsy. -8 that’s about as deep as I’ve ever seen that particular metric this far up in the Northeast… Yet there’s 0QPF painted either day wow. Just at a glance the recent GFS runs look like day eight would be an EOF1 bomb from the upper MA into the New England states

Yeah ... here comes the furnaced fall

French Army Corp of Engineers gave up when ceding the land in the purchase and warned ... 'do not attempt to build a city there,' upon exit. Anyway ... I mused ( or bemused ..) earlier about this season's propensity to 'under'whelm ... No system has really show panache in the development phases and in fact, if anything systems seem to sputter at least environment excuse to do so... This morning Marco looked all but plunging into an RI phase of development and keeping with season trend, instead this happens... "the last fix made by this morning's reconnaissance flight indicated that the pressure had leveled off, and no higher winds had been observed from what was measured earlier in the flight. The radar presentation from Cuban radar has also degraded a bit, so Marco's initial intensity is held at 55 kt." It's dicey too - because TC's are a fickle beast to forecast and past performance doesn't dictate future responses and all that ... but when will the season trend of COVID-19 TCs get vaccinated - that's a question...

Paul... we've had SB CAPE over 3500 here several times this year ... just that it's hard to do anything with it when the lapse rates suck and there's no triggers. That said, it's a dicey to dribble those warm buttery dps up under/nearby subtly westerlies increasing along 50-55 N ..yeah I'm almost think MCS .... We haven't had a bona fide overnight windy strober in years around here...

That GFS run is a warm look just beyond mid week tho - those are summer heights ORD-PWM day 8-10 and well beyond ...not a convincing autumn appeal for me but I don't mean nuttin' This run's just doing what always happens in NE... Thermal ridge attempts to progress east across the country, and then the model generates a trough out of nowhere and bullies the hell out of it through NE and all it does is belay the inevitable warm air a couple of days... It's just ensemble-line synoptic behavior -

We need some DP/theta-e to re-pool and well up into the boundary layer ...if/when that happens, these next three days, today through Sunday ...could feature some entertaining cloud scapes. Crispy TCU days with some glaciation ... I was looking at that the NAM and other guidance and the blend has a kind of BD or amorphously so stalling from upstate NY to BOS or SE NH... and that could support some theta-e pooling ... So SPC has Marginal hashed out and that's just about exactly what I was thinking too so... hey, something - Boy did the temp respond ... 53 was my low, just touched 85.... we could be over 40 diurnal today - not bad.

That 'south Atlantic anomaly' stuff has been known for quite some time ...years and years... It's part of the normal geo-dynamics of this planet going back eons. The magnetic field as we know it is a smoothed representation of a complex intertwined spaghetti of local field anomalies and distortions that average out to a the superstructure that we see depicted in Science Channel informational shows and/or text books and so forth, that shows this nice parabolic canopy of polarity extending into space. ... just commenting here - not intending to be heavy handed with it... If any one of these local-field distortions takes on bigger SD than the background noise, it will show up as a 'south Atlantic anomaly' but it doesn't really bear 'threat' in the same sense of that movie's silliness ... so saying, "well, now we have this ..." hahaha not sure that logically follows other than searching for drama.

Jesus ... ... this is no rapid spin up season that’s for damn sure. It might be what Scott was pointing out that we just got all these little turds in the punch bowl because otherwise the main parametrics are all signaling five concurrent category 12 hurricane should be out there right now yet the models are just utterly languishing in any kind of development and frankly they’re doing well as these things just keep up and vanishing into open whirls and then a new flare up happens ... phew here we go and then it fails again rinse and repeat all the way across the basin This is not one of those years were single thunderstorms turn into hurricanes overnight

Did anyone ever notice in that movie how they had the anime of the oceanic conveyor going in the in the wrong direction in that scene where Dennis Quade is explain' things ? ....that is ...in addition to that movie intrinsically being a bad direction, notwithstanding Cli-Fi is an important sub-genre in my opinion, but the key to making a convincing plot is to make it suspend disbelief - peddling in absurdities ...ain't it. They tried to impose like 1,000 years of climate change into three days... There are "jolt" events in geologic history that have been inferred using reanalysis of gas/isotope from trapped air in ice corse or caves or whatever .... some in as little as a 100 years ... but three days? That takes a special sort of gullible beef-wit to suspend lunacy there -

They can share domain space but can impede ... depends. I fledging system can get abraded by shear due to outflow from a more powerful system, but they can be similar in intensity and then the outflows interfere less. I've actually seen big hurricanes that have massive areal circumvallate arms the extend so far away curvilinearly from the inner sanctum of the vortex, that a TD forms on the spiral arm. Gilbert did this back in the day ... But those are not typically long for the world unless they somehow peel away and can escape the outflow from the dominate predecessor vortex. But....better evolved dual system can in fact get into a steady state where their sustaining is not interfering with one another ... Fugi Waras for example -

Quite a historic potential there with IOH around the Gulf unprocessed and nakedly available to any above normal troposphere for development that sets up, which that is modeled to do so... That vestigial subtropical ridging to the N should impart an east tendency to the flow which would translates to lowered shear... Then, insert TC into that total realm ... that has under-cooked in the models written all over it.. I just wonder, has there ever simultaneously been two at or > Cat 3 hurricanes in the GOM before - mmm guessin' no?

Word! .... we've been over this hundreds of times, because, ...hundreds of times this happens and hundreds of times were absorbing TC into a slow moving frontal zone or two autumn nor'easters away from a flood watch. Nature itself is obviously noisy and so of course it is possible to get a 10 year period where it never rains or snows and the region is then impacted by an asteroid impact just in case anyone survives ... excluding that possibility, it seems we can largely ignore 'drought' designations in our climate.

Ah...that declaration is available to question - imho... The climate models ( if that is what we are basing declaratives off of in present context ...) have routinely verified too slow in predictive environmental observations due to climate change. I don't see how that necessarily stamps an imprimatur of certitude on any numerical temperature expectancy ...even in worst case scenario of 5C ( to whomever mentioned that number); the "worst case" scenario could end up wrong too... In fact, magnitude and timing become difficult to un-entangle ... 'was the system just fast, such that the result at the end time frame was based on time error alone, or was the system just more responsive, so time was default wrong by missing the responsivity of the system' - you don't know which and climate as a science, particularly wrt to 'changing' ( regardless of cause mind you - this is not conflation with AGW or just GW...), is clearly proving to have error sandwiched somewhere in between either of those unknowns. Heh...you know, as a digression - if one is insightful that should immediately suggest ... maybe we ought not be mucking around with such a complex system? muah -hahahaha It's an inexact science. We can't say that climate bands won't "leap" based upon thresholds ... suppose at some crucial 3.5 C we witness an event ahead of the climate model et al timing. An unknown trigger effectively pops the band up some 500 km to the N with > 50%, non-returning residence ... I'd almost argue that is at least substantively probabilistic to occur too - as we see "tipping points" as a phenomenon in nature in general - we'd be neolithic incompetent to assume the climate won't do that. The problem with tipping points is that... once the ballast momentum is moving, it takes proportionally more momentum to countermand the effect and bring it back to the previous stable dynamic - which in itself is opening the door to fractals and chaos and other "synergistic" effects.

Good question ... It's important for these TCs that are heavily guided in ensemble means ( to wit, this one appears tightly clustered through 96 hours ) along pathways that take them 30 to 120 naut miles NE of PR... That is considered a "climate key slot" in the statistics. There are exceptions to every rule, of course... but, > 50% of the so-dubbed "LI Express" events, or just EC threats in general, are trackable back to having passed through that described latitude and longitude. There's loads of "synergistic" reasons why that is probably the case ... that require a delicious popsicle-headache dissertation to explore ... but for the purpose of this potential system, it is indeed forecast to pass through that region. And, do so with that same sort of portended bee-line nearing the outer Bahamas - kind of the next key region whereby first there is historical precedence for the PR passage, then subsequently the Bahamas. The concern there after becomes what is happening with the total synoptic layout and evolution over time, east of 110 over the mid latitude continent. Right now, the models seem to want to languish a mid latitude subtropical ridge expression which is biasing the track after D 4 toward Florida impact ... or many members ending up over the GOM. etc. But, personally? I'm a bit of a fan of trend - particularly what I like to call 'synergistic trends' - this is where there is "art" in weather prediction. Synergy is the 'affect' of purpose that only emerges by the collective contribution of all components effecting a system. We call this "more than the sum of its part" ?? Obviously I know the reader knows this ...just making the point that extending this concept to trends...it is possible that we are creating trends that don't really seemed argued to exist when looking at the various factors that effect TC tracks... In this case, we have established a precedence for TCs turning up the coast ...a weak busted ravioli in June, and then Fay ...and technically Josephine can be included, it just sloped a trajectory more ENE.. But, the idea of TC presentation along the EC has become common to this season, relative to climate - three in one season is above average; yet doing so with an abundance of higher than normal mid Atlantic latitude geopotential height during the majority of space and time is 'sort of' incongruent. That is kind of a synergistic trend to achieve there...?? There hasn't been any reason to assume those would have taken place .... but we just keep seeming to materialize a weakness if not trough ... just in time, in each case, to bring these features along the EC. The only difference in notoriety is that they've been fairly mundane events - The impetus of this now way too long of a missive is that having a TC presently modeled to go through said climate key latitude and longitude geographic regioms, together with that synergistic "luck" ( if we will) ... should make one wonder if we should be watching the handling of the total synoptics ultimately guiding what this this will do after D 5... To saying nothing of the fact that D 5 is even stretching the Euro's operational accuracy curve a bit.

Yeah that wind max product, it's a bit of a wonder - I don't wanna call that dubious - we don't know what science is used - but it does seem to "air" on the side of assumptive when considering that wind is mechanics. SSTs, while being integrable in the total 'machinery' of a TC , they are only partial in that total mechanics of wind response. If I were a destruction zealot enthusiast ... eh hm, I'd take an 81 F SST under a superb 200 mb divergency in all radial directions (even augmented by a near-by non-obtrusive TUTT sucking an exhaust channel like a supermassive black hole giving the lower troposphere a wedgie!) while also there is zero mid depth chimney shear ...over any TC just because it's passing over 87F SSTS if in this latter example the TC were fighting hostile deep layer fluid mechanics. In its defense... there may be a product description/disclaimer not seen there - there's that. But it may just be that because the top product's (SST) beset by the lower panel, might be inciting our assumption that the bottom is somehow instrumentally/or conductively based upon SSTS. This is the problem with pulling products that look charismatic without providing any explanation from their sources. ...Especially true on the web where ebullience and enthusiasm tends people to seek and post persuasively... It may also just be bad marketing for that product set to have them side by side, too. Assuming for a moment that stuff is accountable ... that wind max profiling up the MA into NE latitudes is DEFINITELY open to interpretation necessity. We know this just by climate arguments; if a categorical TC were to approach and turn favorably to impact those regions ... acceleration and so forth, winds are not limited to between 35 and 55 kts in those areas as the rapidity of storm motion exceeds decay rate with still marginal SSTs partially supportive, and a host of other aspects like storm-to environmental relative shear arithmetic .. etc.

I'm guessin' the present flare up's gonna earn it a dessie -