Typhoon Tip

This is a way the the totality of the atmosphere achieves as slow pattern/blocking tendency, ...while conserving the velocity surplus shit. It is - Because, one wonders if this could ever have truly "stalled" at a deeper system with a hurried flow going on all around it - so the ..the physical "compromise" ( to put is imply ) is a busted ravioli that the smears and wobbles poorly focus multi-nodel low centers inside a bag of moderate impact. Slow, but no stall... And I'm looking that total painting by the Euro and GGEM and GFS... - i gotta say..typically a "season defining" system has a lull in active patternization and a dearth in frequency that last for a while afterward. These guidance seem already overtaking this whole mess quickly into regime change back into raging gradient/speed. -EPO ...cold loading and wow. I mean, it's already like we're skipping over this and can't wait to get out there to the rip flow.. Of course, that 'typology' described may be more of a previous climate mode - frankly...all teleconnector inference applications have been resulting in oddities.

Clearly ... weaker in the overall wave space through the trough, x and y plain...at 500mb -- > less panache. GGEM did that.. I think I'm in beta-mode state of high confidence for a pedestrian climate Nor'easter ... It'll be fun! ...though, those with blue nuts for allowing their "plausible-design" engines gin up their lust too much may not see things that way.... but consider where we were 2 weeks ago when there was nothing interesting any way cut things up and spun them. Finally belief system tomorrow/night

It maximizes fast because the forcing is weak ...so it attains it max potential early - really simple... Folks keep bangin their hope-heads against their computer screen ever 6 hours for the new run, and until this gets a stronger mechanical feed in of S/W kinematics, it's only going to fluctuate around those distracting observations.

-- NAM has a NW bias beyond 48 ...and particularly 60 hours ..wrt to west Atlantic/near-coastal cyclogenesis and subsequent axis of movement. This has been repeated ~ 10 times per season, now going back ... pretty much to the beginning of weather-related, Internet graphics consuming hobby-ism. -- This system still appears to be a moderate impact K.U. event; despite all peregrinations beautifully formulated across the last 4 or so days of its epic poetic life cycle, ...that's still appears the bounce-back position. -- Having said that, I do think this is entire evolution, thus far handled across all guidance ... , is not maximizing the hemispheric signal. That is a facet I have found interesting about this whole thing ( not that my interest matters to anyone ...). But, this slow moving +PNA modality --> +PNAP western height expansion, while there is a vestigial western limb -NAO collapsing through the 60W/55N ~ region of the Canadian Maritime, really does offer a superb mass-field signaled opportunity or a slow moving, deep height nadir through 90W-60W ...S of the 50th latitude line - a box that places the M/A -- NE regions under watch for significance cyclogenesis. We got it, but it's shirked on qualitative/quantitative maximization of what can fit in that geography. -- Can that change? Believe it or not ...this can go weaker, or stronger as an actual cyclonic response. I have been watching this aspect (blw) now for almost three days worth of cycles, ...from where/what model free-sources ( lol ) allow. There is a sneaky intermediary S/W dosing that is being handled with subtle momentum signature variance, run to run, in the 500 mb charts in every guidance. This is the 06z GFS from Golden Gate ( this morning...), used only to elucidate the concern ( only ...): This annotation off the west coast over the open ocean SSE of the GOA, I have noted, is behaving like a crucial piece to the total amplitude puzzle as all this coalesces upon the eastern seaboard ~ 72 hours post this frame. What's new... low curvature trajectory at planetary scales, means circumstantially that everything modeled to pass over the continent has to be 100% integration of dubious physical data and a whole truck load of (sat soundings + assimilating)/2 ... leads to confidence -related issues. The problem is ... assimilation has improved markedly over the last 10 years ( I have personally noticed..)... The Boxing Day correction event is the most notable occurrence I can recall..where a late mid range system was physically lost ..only to come demonstratively back at time frames < 72 hours. ...particularly 48 hours actually! That was 10 years ago. The synopsis leading that event was a flattish sort of speedier set up ...with the causal wave spacing coming in on a flat, shadowy trajectory like we see above. It came in stronger, rolled out more S/W ridging ahead of it... and together with a similar +PNAP expansion as we see modeled now ( about 72 hours out)... the rest was history. What makes this above, "possibly" different is that the wave space in that ovoid circle in question is HUUUGELY sensitive to 'permutation-al analysis' to put it nicely. It's like a piece of stem-ware situated between a couple of elephant ass physical presences in the flow/ grids, and I wonder if the assimilation might be prone to 'eclipsing effects' - so to speak - because it is sandwiched delicately between.. I think it is going to matter... when that feature has come in like 5 kts stronger, I have noticed the tenor coefficient of forum-gaiety gets larger, joy abounds.. at the [enter superlative ...] impact some model has delivered the region. And ..of course, when it has come in slightly weaker, 'Ho god ...no. Not again'. This piece of momentum feeds into the backside of this ... sneaky...and helps what is otherwise a rather starved system for momentum. Some of the recent guidance has been less with that little feature. It's not the whole potato salad ...I'm not saying that. But, every bit helps ... Summary: What we have is a favorable hemispheric window per the super synoptic/synoptic background/teleconnector, one that is merely getting paltry S/W feed-in. I am definitely seeing that when that feature above is ever so slightly stronger, coming through the SW on the heels of the "Outside slider"/California initial relay above, it seems to constructively interfere ..fusing in nearing the TV. Then, in not being a fan of coincidences, 2 to 4 dm deeper height cores up along NE coast and that "photogenic" better look, I suspect is related..

Like I joked earlier today ... horse blinders

The ICON rots a CCB conveyor after a 4-6 hours of heavy frontage -... probably 7-10" in 6 hours, followed by another 10" over the next day to day and half with that stall and mid level evolution working in tandem. That's probably about the best run I've seen ..close contender with the Euro ...for photogenic look, as well, maximizing what moderate S/W mechanics can do in an overall ( wasted? ) favorable large synopsis. heh... stinger of the CCB down in Va Beach! that be a whack big low man

mm... how long since we've had a significant "EC" winter storm tho - three years by my count minimum... Have to go back a ways to get a K.U. true and blue ribbon winner. seems we've been in a decreasing frequency for that type, while in an overall increased frequency for active weather - probably owing to fast flows and gradient flow types rapidly transporting things along .. But we probably don't need to be too ridged in what defines a K.U. ? I mean is there a check list - I always thought of those "EC" threats as being DCA flirts while PHL-NYC-BOS are all under hard headline warnings and blizzard rumors

I don't know if I agree with this assessment outside of this pattern type It's not a good model in slow hemisphere -no. It's got that weird x-coordinate ( west to east ) velocity bias, and when the blocking hemisphere kicks in, it's in constant fight against. Remember just 40 days ago, the Euro was bullied on, and the GFS was performing better? ... later next week, we may be crying for mercy from the Euro D8 bombs while the GFS takes it to the shed because the gradient appears slated to retake the dominant characteristic of the hemisphere when the -EPO tipping bucket dumps its loading into Canada and vroom -

Yeah ... I just see this still as a powerful 'placeholder' that is only getting a fraction of what it could take ... heh. But just a little more in-feed of wind momentum kinematic S/W material and this thing really would wind up like a top and congeal tighter through the sfc-700 mb disks ... This open broad bs is because the focusing UVM is distributed aloft... Kind of an annoying waste of said favorability - The Euro run appears to absolutely maximize what it can, given said feeds. It reminds me of that run like 3 or 4 cycles ago..when it was also pretty to look at. Thing is...for those holding out on more potent congealed realization ... I don't know if assimilation and sonde stuff matters in this case as much as even 10 years ago. It seems to me that if anything, features relayed off the Pacific are always proving pubes too much when the pass on shore. I have really seen something come in more potent like we used to, lately - But it may. I'm starting to get event fatigue already ... jeez.

Ha...this storm coincides with the 'Neap tide' ...

also, 'Spring' tide ...I think what I was having trouble find before -

yeah ...maybe that changed - i'll give it a whirl... but, the impetus is also to supply them here ? - I just wanted to the discussion too.

Okay okay ... heh... Not willing ( personally ) to go that far. Not caring to see those ancillary products based upon other products ...based upon numerical guidance tech grape-vines, protects me personally. I'm a mid 1990s, 500 mb trend guy - do just fine man. You know though, it does point out: this engagement? whether hobby, obsession... to just dropping by to get an 'insider idea' on an impending over-aggrandized CNN headline of impending doom...etc, it's all new to humanity? This has never happened before, ever, a sociological/cultural mode... in history. There is no archeological bases for this - interesting. It's 20 years tops... in fact, could argue that it's really only the last 10 years that it has become a real empiric/demonstratively motivating influence on behaviors and even to the extent of motioning macro-ethos... But that all hints at an op-ed segway, - any takers.. haha. Didn't think so - No, but I do think it's interesting sociologically that the "storm" experience isn't really waking up to red sky at morning, and battening down the hatches and seeing what it has in store. The storm experience is often an exhausting... jesus, it can be a 2-week ordeal Point is, yikes...

Yup ... Will and I commented on this yesterday and now these guidance gone wild with a -EPO ... Deep deep cold loads into the Canadian shield... Well prior to the governing larger synoptic driving any western continental, mid-latitude ridging, the cold is already spreading out with suppressed polar boundary S of 40 N... This is creating a petri-dish of baroclinic instability, so... needless to say - As far as Euro, I'd also watch for just a smidge of over carving in to the SW/bias therein

I mean my god - I can admit ... if this was say 15 years ago in more primitive graphics and/or accessibility time, that 120 and 144 hour toggle click at PSU would have pants pooping... It really argues for another 6 hours book-ending that differential at PSU's exposure, too. 120 already has an extraordinarily longitudinally deep easterly fetch, on going, with an actual - albeit modest but enough ... - polar high N-Ne of Maine, feeding cold into the mixing of that jet. But now..in this "event run-up relative modernity" ...this type of shitting isn't required? It's not different - I mean back then if that showed? we snowed. Nope ..not now, every stinking p.o.s. piece of app crap has to indicate armeggeddon or it's all a lost cause ... fascinating Anyway, what are the Tides ?? Steve?? who has those. You can't just google those - people try to horde info for profits now because they have no usefulness to human kind. C'mon, tide calendars now and moon data for petty pennies ... 'Buy now, 9.99 for the years' spring tides' - I'm like ... humanity deserves a f'n comet impact man or a pandemic or something - oh wait That sucker on that oper. Euro looks big and deep and ominous and enough so in both regards to get even a normal tide cycle up onto shore roads and hurling small boulders.

Ah ... you're a bigger man than I - I choose instead to impugn an entire throng of users in one fowl swoop snark post ...

actually... ( to me ) the coarse product at PSU that shows the 500 mb and the sfc evolution looks perfect for snow enthusiasts - a low moves between CC and the BM, with closed heights falling deeper as just on the western arc ...? That's a pummeling for all SNE 10 years ago before access to all this electronic laser show brighter than the thunderstorms they cover became available -. I almost wonder if some horse-blinders may be a good thing - perhaps a microchip installed in the heads of the standardized engagement level users. In nano-time, this device pings back and forth to critical fiber node of the web upon mouse clicks, IDs the user, then ... instead of loading a nuance idiosyncratic image that launches a thousand ships, "We're sorry, you have been designated suitable for prevention of knee-jerk reactionary bias. Please, this is for your own protection. Error code: XCD000001"

So... do we have time to couch a complete unilateral model whiff and thread abandonment prior to another Boxing day hypocrisy rebirth of interest between now and next Monday night - that's the question... Actually, in all seriousness ( except when I'm not - ), I don't think this thing can 'wiggle' farther east than it has, wihout the hemisphere at large changing floor plans. If the latter does... meh, we don't have control over that. This isn't the same thing as a needle thread scenario. It is a broad tropospheric supporting parental structure and just like liberals...they give their kids lots of room to play. So the runs are having fun in the bounce house.

Yeah...it's pretty clearly owing to the total E repositioning over prior runs that may have intruded modest WAA .... I didn't look very close at it honestly, but when Will said 'East' and hour ago the first thing that popped to mind - for some reason - was that the it was too mild to begin with in previous and now corrects colder/more BL resistance, but it appears to be more just the E adjusting. We're backing the CCB head more there ( ...oh god I'm getting hit for that statement now ... ) but it's pulling more NNE critical wind direction compared to the ENE wind from before in the surface to 1300 m. I think when we get a couple more days in the books and start with details...this is the kind of aspect that will spark spirited CF tedium enough to inspire Rainman to put down the Telephone book -

Wait ... i thought we already explained the CD .... Is this for a different conversation ? now I'm confused...

man ..at a glance I thought your handle there said 'Nazi' ... double-take, whaaa Looks like slow movement on the radar type of overtake to me. I could see it walled off and S in NYC up to Danbury CT 12z Monday morning... while Kevin watches virga undulations and a radar saying he's under the N edge.. And as you loop it ...it's inching NE such that 6 hours later, the same has then aligned between Rt 2 and the Pike ... then S NH by nightfall. Within the shield the echoes pretty solid in that initial burst... might even be hints where small embedded pixel clusters at slightly higher level rad beginning move more NW... Good mood abounds while - hopefully - James is raining ...

Heh .. I know what you mean, but it did 'go east' ...at least some. In principle the assertion was met this time. That said, I've seen the UKM and Euro part company enough anyway to know that's rube-cackle among the mid-evil courtyard rumor mill anyway, just sayn'

mm yeeeah, ...luck with one helluva twist of hidden irony that hides the unfairness of the thing - but yeah.. ha, I dunno - it's a joke

It's interesting .. but this system is straddling the verification timing - the models tend to 'get better' beginning around D4.5, but this is just setting up .. where those crucial times are in the grayer area later Tuesday - longer duration ftl I suppose. But the Euro now has had distracting continuity of this nature across three consecutive runs so... looks like model 'giga' motions to me.

probably should use the expression sparingly? just a hunch... lol - It's basically like, take two people: both are born with the exact same IQ ... exact same good looks .... exact same wherewithal in terms of family legacy/securities ... with no guiding genetically differing markers to suggest substantially different health, mentally or physically... one ends up a CEO the other in prison Guess who was the proud recipient of the CD ? It's just when fractals ...chaos... the unforeseeable forces just contributed, badly. ...Usually, insidiously too ...like one does not know it ... and then of course the world "gets to" blame the person for all their mistakes too - and since there's no way to advocate for the thusly persecuted, their iniquity is forever unsung, and the CD has its orgasm. Sometimes ... you can do no wrong, and just lose. Everything that exist in nature has a degree of unpredictability to it's outcome: both positive ... and negative ( relative to perspective ). Yet another example to elucidate the CD-effect: ... do you know what the word synergy means? The word synergistic follows ..and refers to when an interaction of elements produces an effect that is greater than the effect that would have resulted from simply adding up the effects of each individual element. So, that does not guarantee that 10 input goodies ends up making something super great... It just means greater than the sum of the contributing parts. The CD is when those elements all seemingy good ... butt-f* the hell out out of the well-intended - get it... That concludes this vastly inappropriate sermon for this particular thread's intents and purposes... And is also not to be taken seriously... haha