Typhoon Tip

This is called 'wishing the time away' one day you'll regret doing that ... particularly if you succeed in finding that perception .. just sayn

Echoing Brian ... been mention that same tenor and reasons why as of late That said another insidious repeating theme that has been taking place is this opposite pattern immediately morphing upon the posting veracious arguments ... Jesus Christ, but we'll see if this has legs

ah... shucks.. need to either slow that up or speed it up and we'd bee in business over the weekend -

1. nope 2. maybe/likely

well...like I said, it's just what I observed - DP of 80 may be so.. we can certainly look it up. but, the point I was making is that it wasn't 105 to 110 F - I think we can all agree there.. Also .. dancing around the notion that the GFS was under performing on DP ... which proobably attributed to its temp side soaring so high. It did that in the March nor-easter earlier that spring, too, when it had nearly 3" of QPF in rain at 39/33 F ... seemed to carry on with an issue handling basic thermodynamics despite all conceits

nah.. No, I was just using that as launch point - heh ...my bad. I'd go with Brians assessment on that ... not uncommon for June as you know. Rains...sun pops out...steam off the street and feels like waves off buffalo dung As far as what i said after lift off ... it's true though. DP is registering higher -

No one said it was...

There are already peer reviewed materials available to periodicals and even paraphrased if folks care to look... for free, that elucidate the increased in elevated DPs actually happening. It's a single data point? granted. But, that old narrative about a single point doesn't make the climate is a cozy hide-behind that doesn't face that fact that the climate makes such a point more likely to occur ... ( Not you , per se.. I'm just sick of hearing the assholes say the former strategically) Anyway... I'm not so sure 80 is more or less common without the solar input. That's gonna be tougher at 40 N and above. But what is likely to occur more and more... DPs > 70 in general..but also, more cloudiness.

I know I've brought this up in the past but ...those who are serious about atmospheric phenomenon and the general sphere of Meteorological Sciences ( and the concomitant flop-over into climate ) really should be aware that elevating DP is a phenomenon both consistent with observations globally, but also theoretically expected in global warming...

The highest I personally observed of the temperatures that maxed out through that ordeal during the first week of July 2018 was 97 one afternoon ... otherwise, 93 to 95 were more common. I don't know what others observed ... or what there personal Davis'/obs stationed recorded for that journey .. but that's what I observed around my town and of NWS .. Some 10 to 15 F less than those 2-meter GFS numbers, albeit with unusually high DP, verified more commonly. At one point I think I recall seeing 96/76 contributing the maximum HI. At our latitude, it gets hard to exceed that temperature at that water vapor metric. Typically... our 102's happen at/< 70 People will always have those apocalypse charts on their phones and/or desktops ...whatever it is they used to access the web, and will occasionally bleed them out as though that really happened... but, no ... ( just in case anyone thinks it did ). heh.. .yeah the GFS of old had a pretty bad psuedo-adiabatic handling in the BL for whatever reason - we'll see if this recently promoted FV3 inherited the same issues. ----- seems to me we are destined to a perfect summer. Not too cold. Not too hot. ...though obviously that includes times where it may be annoyingly cool or very warm, notwithstanding. Just in general. Looking over June, it hasn't been bad from a sensible perspective alone - though taken with a grain' ..this is my personal druthers talking. We've been parsing out these top 20 if not top 10 days with nearly ideal intervals of beneficial, non-flooding rains of sufficient proportions for pan-systemic hydro needs, top and bottom... And if that seeming "weather modification net" forced timing were not enough, the rain happens during the week when many are heads down at work anyway. In fact, the rain days have either been at night, or... tending to clear at 4 to 6 pm ... it's like weirdly perfect. Anyway, just watching the Euro the last .... three weeks, when the flow is amplified... NW trajectory out of eastern Canada. When the flow relaxes... NW trajectory out of eastern Canada... When the pattern changes... NW trajectory out of eastern Canada... God decides to end the cosmos and reality as we know it... he can't stop the f'ing NW trajectory out of eastern Canada. It's really been remarkable.. but the gist is, no matter what happens or what patter variation set in ...we WILL BE plagued be ... you guessed it, a NW trajectory out of eastern Canada. Europe swelters in another along the increasing frequency in recent decades of death heat waves ... NW trajectory out of eastern Canada.

https://phys.org/news/2019-06-mercury-climbs-europe-braces-summer.html

At a glance ... the Davis' in the area tied into the network over at Wonder give the illusion of the modest cool bust on the part of machine-interpretative guidance ... but, this does not appear to be the case at offical NWS sites. This happens frequently... People's backyards, ... town squares and thoroughfares, as well as the way they sensibly feel, are all warmer than NWS' official sites. It occurs to me... MOS is in part climatized - which is to say ... the farther out in time range, it weights climate in... that's supposedly in hopes to stop the MOS from ballooning ( overly depressing ) high and lows in extremes synoptics ... D 7's 'll be happy to throw up a 104 at Caribou Maine if they let it ha.. Anyway, the numbers averaged for the climate are not taken from the, "people's backyards, ... town squares and thoroughfares, as well as the way they sensibly feel" sources ... So, when the area Mets rely upon the MOS, they are likely to be advertising numbers that are going to seem dimmed compared to where most of civility lurks. Good Mets know not to take MOS verbatim but you'd be surprised.

actually ... after tomorrow the GFS leaves the region in goop marginal atmosphere until the weird looking N-S plunging violation of physics cleans house later in the weekend... good for TCU side lit towers

12z NAM is more unstable... regionally - not sure it will/would translate to whatever folks have in mind, but... get west of the marine influence with those RH fields suggests some SB CAPE production under less stable LI's than the previous model cycle. I've mentioned this in the past, the NAM isn't a terrible model for convective initialization ... We seem to be teetering for tomorrow, oscillating just above and below neutral buoyancy in the NAM.

Why ... just for the yee-haw shits and giggles ?

I one time at band camp heard a story about a home in VT ... where they discovered a Timber rattler nest or mating ball under the kitchen hard wood floor - I recall the photo of it with the boards removed

Mm.. .the FRH grid is unremarkable over SNE as suggested by the three-point triangular mean between LGA-ALB-BOS... It's a trick we learned prior to having all these "I don't have to analyse" conveniences available to even lay-people.. Anyway, LI's are -1 or -2 out in the western sections, and +2 over the east... Lifted Index is a decent base-line metric for being related specifically to vertical temperature/lapse rates among other variables - lacking buoyancy isn't a bangy vibe... We'll see... things can change between now and then. I rather like the appeal for D6/7 out there ... it's like the pea-hailer signal from two days ago on 'roids... That's got an EML air mass ( or hybrid variant ) near by and should that error in the Euro and GGEM and get into the region as that wind max slides overhead from the NW ( similar to Saturday ...) ..we have NW -- SE strafed convection. It's been on the charts for a two or three days ... and probably wouldn't mention it until mid week, but just sayn' cuz of the subject matter. It would be a west wind at the surface, with rapid mid level height falls and wind streak over from the NW/NNW ..which makes bulk shear very positive albeit rotated around the dial - we sometimes get severe in this region from that rotation of vectors. Substantive heating notwithstanding...

The day Monica and I walked by the shore was my nicest day. Everything else is just weather

That patterning is also consistent with water moccasin ... a decidedly more dangerous species ( btw ). Have to look at the head's geometric configuration and other anatomic features, which are unfortunately not well exposed in that photo. It probably is a common water snake - by virtue of the fact that cottonmouths aren't northern species ( I don't think?) ... Many species of non-venomus reptiles are mimickers of other more dangerous variety. There's one species, ...I can't recall, but it is native to the north, and even splays its neck like a cobra... But, that's off course impossible

yeah...all particular druthers and/or protestation aside, it's like stunningly euphoric out there today...

Ha! right - Yeah ...I can't honestly say I "like" 90+ weather. In fact, I have windows open here with curtains waving and it's starting to get 'uncross the legs warm' feeling. This is dry heat too... somewhat shy of 90. In all seriousness and not trying to piss off PF ( that was already achieved an hour ago... ), I do find the Meteorology of heat wave fascinating. Just as much as I do those circumstances/scenarios that presage any of the big weather impacts. I've opined in the past so I'll spare the reader a lot of grammar here buut, I don't believe Heat Waves really get their due appreciation. I feel about this equally for cold waves. For simplicity, I'm not sure I really see the logic in not including both heat and cold waves into the big ticket threats. It should be, Tornadoes, Lightning, Floods, Hurricanes, Blizzards, heat waves and cold waves. Both these latter weather phenomenon have clear and coherently identifiable atmospheric mechanical presentations, and since they take a tool on commerce and impose threats to public safety... I don't believe they are phenomenon that should be left off the threat list. It is what it is I guess But yeat, I'm not a sadist - I don't want to actually be subjected to high, uncomfortable heat and in particular, torridity ... mm. In fact, I'd probably acclimate to just hot, but the DP doesn't seem ( for me ) to adjust very well at any exposure/length of time. For us here, we usually end up with a mash up between Sonoran release mixed with continental biological-Industrial farts by the time it arrives, so we rarely get 95/40 ..It's gotta be 93/76, with cancerous ozones... in a forecast that busted 3 to 5 too hot because DP/continental farting is notoriously under-handled... blah blah

Granted day 8 anything shouldn't carry a whole helluva lot of weight ... but under the circumstances? The longest most unrelenting pattern lock since the formation of the Milk Way Galaxy itself makes this somehow eerily believable... For summer/heat enthusiasts, you are being singularly targeted for rear-violation... This thing is literally carving SW in this GFS 12z oper. evolution. What's interesting further ... there doesn't really appear to be any larger --> smaller scale forcing mechanics to make this happen - yet...it keeps doing so. Fascinating You can hope it's wrong ...and probably, some softer variation of this absurdity takes place ... just enough to make matters annoying ... But, this thing below - you know as an afterthought... this may finally break down in October, rending to the warmest ridgiest winter in history over eastern N/A. It'll be poetic justice for those bombarding you with winter/snow posts at the end of June. Oh..man. 'Almost pay to see that happen -

Heh... you're off by more than a day on that tho I only vaguely unveiled any psycho babble eye- glazing... with clear tongue-in-cheekism. The real point of that? New England's subforum in the summer hmm, might not be the appropriate place/time for cryo fixation banter. A comprehension this particular concentrated ilk of reader may not gather in, granted - Be that as it may..., those that are defensive, prooobably won't comprehend that objectively - tru. They'll just try an evasive debase tactic by making fun of it instead. na na na-na na... Okay, now you go -

Anyway ... despite Kevin's exuberance regarding heat ... I actually found the 00z suite a bit of a distraction. Seemed subtleties in the complexion of the charts were better performed in that regard, on the previous 12z cycle. This run of 00z Euro, for example, has more 'sag' in that weird ridge dent its been resting over top of the OH Valley D4-6 than the prior two runs. It had that oddity on those, but it was trending to flatten it incrementally. ( Apparent ) short duration trend, because last night's depiction reversed that and sagged it even more than it ever had. And, as is typically the case with the Euro, whenever it flips the page from D6 to 7 it uses whatever reason or blip in the stream it can find hangin' around in that general domain space to carve out a deep trough along the NE Coast. That latter phenomenon is, imho and observation, the sole reason why there are often wintertime day-8 phantom bombs in this model... In the summertime, if there is ever going to be a heat wave in New England again...the Euro might not be the best tool to ferret a marginal one out of the charts for D6-10 because when it goes out of its way to use a cumulus cloud over Lake Superior to ablate the ridge/heat and tamp it S of NYC, we don't have the latitude ( pun ) to play around with that sensitivity. Which there is a hidden homage there pertaining to the tedium in giving a shit whether it's 86 or 90 in the first place so ugh -

I like acknowledgement of unusual weather phenomenon.. In fact, I find it endearing. It demonstrates there are still people who are capable of appreciating natural wonders. That's not what is happening when we field cryo-escapism here. What I don't like is people denying their borderline negative ( S.A.D.) using New England's sub-forum to offset and council themselves out of their own anguish, whenever they have to accept that our geographical region has plausible warm-up in the summer. It doesn't make it any better - frankly - that there are others doing cogency a huge disservice by exaggerating the scale and degree going the other direction, but that's an entirely different agenda... I/we should have better things to do than to serve as unwitting therapists. And there really is a pattern to that behavior - the frequency of those compensatory ... forced insertion of snow/cold content does spike whenever machine and/or man interprets a warm up here. That is an effect that has a cause? Now...being of normal sentience ...a person might just observe that phenomenon and be so inclined to wonder, gee - why does a warm episode seem to trigger a snow gawk session? One that really doesn't belong in New England's sub-forum because it is happening ..thousands of miles away. If someone wants to start a thread that is specifically devoted to discussion of cold weather phenomenon ... than by all mean! Go there and dump Steamboat Colorado wonder and awe ( and jealousy) ...there, and those that share in that fixation, you can all have a day in celebration. This site lost moderating standardization and/or purposefully relaxed/altered it when it become a site attempting to make money... I understand that. To make money, on the web, you need mouse clicks... and we're not going register as many if they're are forced into courtesy and respect limitations per their involvement - the latter torpedoes the former. For that ... it is what it is.. but, it should still be useful to mention it. And also... fun to piss people off by forcing them to see how they are reflecting - haha