Typhoon Tip

Yeah... courtesy of Ryan H.'s nice statistical overview of New England cases, there is a typical layout in the 500 mb height anomaly distribution ..where positive orients from eastern Canada arcing around the Maritimes and subtended below that, there is often a weakness in the lower OV...usually centroid over the midriff easter cordillera. The TCs move with the circulation conducted by these maestros .. up the east coast, but the positive anomaly blocks the eastern turn such that it manages the whole trek and strikes. The 96 hour EPS' mean from 00z "sort of" depicts that... The 500 mb does not offer enough of that last minute/latitude block to prevent the turn. That suggests a parabolic miss...albeit, uber close. It may clip the Hatteras ... It wouldn't take much of a reposition of the positive height anomaly lurking E of CC and S of NS to get this to Boston before the east turn, and probably needs another couple of runs to really gain confidence that/those crucial details are necessarily being handled right

Just my opinion... but it's easy to envision/imagine a rapidly redeveloping or newly developing surface circulation somewhere immediately astride the N/NE coastal region of the Island of Hisp. That mid level presentation is folding cyclonically now more readily in the last couple of hours ... some models have been suggesting that - including the GFS actually - so perhaps we finally are on the verge of at last witnessing an actually TC emergence here.

I wouldn't mind seeing them all ranked ... like going back 300 years, re-analyzed when/where in history it is necessary to do so in order to complete that list. I notice right off the bat just eye-ballin' those, four out of seven "ratter years" are just since 2000. Anyone with a modicum of both an inquisitive nature ... sharing headspace between questions and a tendencies to maintain a general sensitivity as to the "nature" of the present geological era of the Global environment ( and it is proposedly denoted the "Anthropocene" by the way), might be inclined to wonder if that 'recency' is really having as much to do with the ENSO, at all... Perhaps more to do with the taboo elephant in the room narrative - We all know what that is... Yup, global warming may be anachronistically skewing the assumed cause-and-effects. I mean, if the ENSO becomes a lesser a physical drive in a warmly encased system - that's just physics... I'm tipping my hypothesis hat. I don't think the ENSO events are as instructive in the governance of the total Global circulation paradigms ...as an "increasingly failed realization" because the total integral of the ocean-atmospheric couple system is warming ... Rudimentarily: gradient from point A to point B dictates how everything in reality exists ... in reality, including reality itself. From electrodynamic quantum scales all the way to the faults in our gods .... if A doesn't move toward B, there is not A or B .... If the atmosphere is warm over a warm ocean, that atmosphere does not represent a response to the warm ocean; if the atmosphere is cold, it does more so... Really simple actually... Anyway, there was a super Nino some 5 clicks back that did not register the typology of Global impact zones nearly as much ... and ...a lot of seasonal forecasts are failing more so ( that I appears to me...). I suggest reliance and assumption need to change; because in ENSO reliances that I feel folks are getting bamboozled by because the machinery of the atmosphere isn't being as readily levered by the these ENSO variances...

Ha! Yeah.... sorry ...don't mean to come off as Dr No-ish or know-it-all either... It's just that since I tend to pride myself and go out of my way to seek objectivity as a goal/acumen, that means I am quite likely going to default sound like a party pooper or debbie downer. Just being in the room ...heh. By virtue of being proximal to the "ebullient willingness" of guidance interpretation ( eh hem...) that too oft permeates these bus-stops of weather-related cinema seeking social media pass-times .. I get to be the asshole. I'm sure there is that same tendencies over at Earth Quake Central, and Cosmic Ray Burst Just When She Finally Say Yes ... forums too - haha Tongue-in-cheek aside... If it gets above some developmental/momentum threshold ... mm, willing to guess that it exceeds expectation. Not sure by how much ... either 1 mph or 40 ... but it would not surprise me. Particularly when it turns right and heads up... it'll be passing over some of the richest integrated oceanic heat content on the planet...lengthwise for a time, too... as in, not merely passing across the axis of the g-string. Folks, need to remember, the warm thong of the west Atlantic is oriented S-N from southern Florida to about Cape Hatteras... So, turn right and heading lengthwise along that does offer some intrigue ...as the shear profiles presently modeled appear favorable. The storms motion relative to ( SRS) is very low ... It just looks like a scenario for Bobian deepening so experimental thinking but we'll see.. .

I'm willing to hunch that we've had low level ... as in SST-contact flow orienting wind flux anomalies from the E to S around coastal New England this spring and summer. So perhaps now we cash-in on having a bit more robust ( over normal ...) warm seasonal recovery of oceanic surface temperatures because of it. I've noticed buoys S of L.I. over the Bite thermocline putting up 80 and 81 F temperatures ...talking 50 to 75 Mi S of the Island... Meanwhile, the G-string is evident on the colorized images/sat renderings much further S... It's like a quasi 2ndary gulf stream is genesised between L.I. and the actual/real stream line of the GS. Take note of the mid 70s eddy E of the Cape and S of NS out E of 70/40... that's like home grown thermal resident water packaged up in a whirl...so it seems. Keep in mind, the thermocline is pretty shallow S of L.I. .. one TC would pepi la pew a cold stripe real quick and abolish that warm layering in there

Unfortunately for the drama seekers ... that depiction isn't it. It's weakening rapidly and typically, that lifts the wind field off the deck and starts frictionally inducing a stable layer - not necessarily representable in the thermal sounding...not speaking to inversions in that sense. Fluid/viscosity vs the weakening PGF does the decoupling and lifts the wind field, such that cloud tags whisk overhead at ludicrous speed while your winds gust to 30 mph ... But...that does still support the EFO/EF1 spin potential, because as the BL restoring bends inward ... meanwhile, the lifted/decoupled wind field thus creates a strong mass diffluence between the 3 and 6km levels over top, and that ropes any incidental rotation by pulling the column lengths ... blah blah... Overall, depending on the speed of motion, that could produce small to intermediate stream flood response with perhaps 2 to 5" in extinguishing bands that might be in the process of losing intensity and shredding at that point - probably so... I bet that structure has sun shoots and sky-lights near the core ...poking through as it exits the Maine coast... while the wind over interior SNE is dead calm at a DP of 78 If the system is deeper and stronger when it quasi-accelerates ( "quasi" ..because it's not really even clear this thing does very convincingly) up the coast, and slams in ...that's a different scenario and physical impact. Weakening or not, a deep core moving quickly will have a right quadrant wind max to contend with...and also, just have kinematics still playing out to really nail the left with rain... Bob was moving fast and had these momentums/physics in pay ...and the speed of storm motion, outpaced the rate of decay concomitant with TCs entering the Bite water latitudes... and that is key for New England impact scenarios: d(storm) < d(motion) we cannot have these things kinda sort accelerating as mere strong Trop storm profiles... or regarldelss of whatever Frankenmodel like the NAVGEM lubes us with ... it won't be a mere strong Trop storm profile around here. We have had Nor'easters with deeper pressure cores result only light winds in Metro West

I’ll take September over April

Thanks Jerry... again, the first half of the book may be a bit expensive vocabulary-wise for some ...but be patient; the second half may become more entertaining as the science part gets behind. Just setting expectations... Also, Jerry you were one of the ones that encouraged me to try like 10 years ago... I told a story of the 1992 Dec storm and you were insisting that I try a novel... hey, first try..

Yes that's it ! thanks and yup ...the title is rather used by other others/genres

yeah heh...right, I could also like ...look at weather charts, huh. no but I think they have indoctrinated a reliance a bit - I guess it makes arithmetic sense. If the models detect genesis like a million times more proficiently than the exuberant corral of a public domain social media parade ...maybe they should put their chips down on the models - lest they spend their whole lives writing section 6 reasons for deviation forms -

mmm I actually think that's a nod in favor of the other guidance ilk that threatened the EC ...with what remains to be seen... but, it's a nod in favor. It has the system coherently throughout the guidance' pressure pattern/evolution there That said, how often does one see a REX configuration in the Lakes and a EC/L.I. express routed TC ...weak or not?? Fascinating - that's us being S of the HC interface, no question...because typically that confluence would not be that far N to allow that evolution. Heh...be that as it may, it's a nodder -

Much better source... https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

Yeah...I'd much rather submerge in a volume of water displaced only by my self and another human being's ass juices.... F' that ..I'll take my chances in the ocean and just not swim with the Darwinian brilliant insight of seal populations where messy eating is a veritable water chumming experiment -

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2020072912-nine09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Does anyone ever wonder if NHC is ... cow-tied to the models ? Looking out along the expanse of the CV traffic route ...there's three eye ballers out there, but there is utterly no interest in one that's midriff or the the one that just emerged off Africa. Perhaps they have tools that flesh those out as just eternal TW thunderheads .... I don't know. But I've noticed that there is almost never an Invest designated without perhaps some number of ensembles doing it first - interesting. I wonder if one of these develops. They seemed to do pretty good; in that sense it's not a knock. I just find it curious that there's never a designation without modeling doing it first.

i'm kidding too - "trilogy" come on hahahaha yeah, thanks.

OH I've considered writing that mo'f'n book ... problem is, it's a trilogy

Thanks man ... I really am a loser - but at least this helps when in moments lost in gazes ...arresting in self-evaluation... haha Upon occasion as we glide through the gallorie of mediocrity the glint off our better angles may just catch the eye and cast colorful delusions in place of our despair. I guess that code for, " if you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, you gotta baffle 'em with bullshit " ... hopefully I came up with something in between

yeah... little worried. I wrote the first half of the book 10 years ago, then put it down to engage in self-loathing for a number of years... That went its course and when I rejoined, you can tell a different tact -but, some of that was premeditated ...I mean, I wanted to write a hard core sci -fi... i.e, can't do that without some pricey syllabic counts. I.e., not lightsabers which is pretty much fantasy - which is fine. It has it's place. But, that does limit the bourgeois appeal to sort of niche the book, doesn't it. But the 2nd half of the book is more humane with the resolution thematic necessity and all that gunk

Hahaha... I wonder if that's a real sub-genre ... Sci-Fi erotica -nice...

speaking of writing guys ( girls... or whomever or whatever is identifying these days ..) ... speaking of writing, my novel is officially published. It's available at Amazon or b-store look ups. "Dominion" ...which is a used and abused title, but ... the publisher wanted it changed from "Dominia" - which I liked, as it was a reference to the dark magic universe borrowed from Russian fantasy ... but it was too obscure or some shit. anyway, it may not be anyone's speed in here as it marries Solid State Physics with Biology ( in very hard core headache worthy science fiction of what if..) to then emerge consequence of Spiritual implication, in total ... telling a unique A.I. story that that stems a goodly bit away from the tropes of modern fiction - so it is hoped... The book has that, plus Military... Romance... and is 300 pages... And no where inside the covers will we find anything having to do with weather other than describing the aridity and hot winds of the desolate Arizona air. Oh, I lied - there is those wind words, but also the word cumulonimbus ...believe it or not.... 100,000 words and I found a way to get that word in a novel that portends dystopia through the lens of Solid State Physics, Biology...and quasi- para-psychology... see - not totally unrelated... just sayn'

two aspect right quite ... 1 .. that would be a good pic, but ...the sky needs even less contaminated smears... those bright white toothy turrets work, but the sky is like uber-clear deep gasping blue in between. 2 .. probably shouldn't romanticize about me.. haha. kidding

I could see that evolving into a Bahama blue pattern ... It's another personal-ism so bite me - Basically, it's when the WAR doesn't edge - enough so - over eastern continent, and a weakness forms between it and the semi-permanent western N/A heat dome... The flow becomes S/SSW from the surface to 200 mb level east of the cordillera ( that's App. mountains axis) ... I "think" ( though am not certain ) that the huge PWAT laminar transport that occurs from the deeper subtropics all the way up ... provides so much condensation potential on the atmospheric particulates,...that together they rain/settle out impurities, rendering the sky so deeply blue it's like some fantasy world Korean pop video where rain drops are violet pieces of candy... Whatever microphysical and or other cause, you get some extraordinary visibilities with DPs of 76 ...all the way to Maine when that sets up. the impetus in awe being...it's hard to get vast visibility in high water content... but that sort of scenario achieves that somehow. I haven't seen this in the last couple of years tho... actually going back five or more ...I don't recall.. It used to happen almost dependably once or twice per summer, that set up ... in the 1980s through the 1990s, but since 2000...seems increasingly a rarefied synoptic ordeal. I think that is because the flow is being sped up - yup...yet again, because of the dreaded HC expansion. I've noticed even in summers we have velocity anomalies. I mean, yesterday, nearing Augie 1, ...we had CU turrets ripping so violently NE away from the buoyancy parcels that it was probably even inhibiting complete rain out of the convective cycle beneath them... I saw vil plumes go from eastern CT to S of NS in like an hour... what is that... 300 mb 200 mph geostrophic wind speed - jesus christ. Slow the f* down already... Anyway, if the total atmospheric maelstrom ...like everywhere, is having to balance that kind of momentum distribution, it's just mathematically/geo-physically ( probably demonstrable) that the wave structure/R-numbers would make scenarios less capable of N-S orientation in lieu of conserving all that rage pointing W-E. Just a supposition...but I think a good one.

They would have been better off if they had conceptualized, "...With the unexpected summer-season surging COVID-19 new cases being observed throughout the nation, primarily outside of the six-state New England, NY and NJ region(s), we have determined that the safest course of action is to limit travel as much as possible outside of our region of the country. " At least it would not be insultingly dimwitted - that product ...seemingly attempting to tap into the instinctual blood-red comes off as divisively fear-mongering and heavy handed - almost regime-like verboten in every sense of "Gestapoen" (Gestapo) rule - 'don't go there or else!' .... I suspect they are just short-sighted and over stressed ...but that's almost comical

Conspiracy theorists dabble in plausibilities while negating the probabilities - and that's what suspends their disbelief ... psycho babble feeds back, viola! they're out to get us - But, the Gov of Mass is not helping when they put out products that look like this. Yet, under the auspices of where are the 'low risk states' vs 'high risk states' ? This looks like a child did this - anything that's not us. Almost smacks like we're all just a bunch of beef-witted plebeians that are too stupid to "get it" so just "tell 'em not to go anywhere" I don't know if this is lazy or swamped ...probably the latter, but this really needs some sort of qualitative refinement .. It looks like a tongue-in-cheek prop behind "Weekend Update" on SNL. This makes no logical sense - they're doing rolling percentages and some other explanatory method that doesn't really fit "reality" ... Massachusetts ( for example...) has a population of just over 6.8 million, and a caseload that brings to ~0.4% of the population, and Alaska has a caseload to pop ratio that comes to .01% ....why are they high risk and Mass low risk? I'm sure there's something else to this but that's bad art/presentation for an increasingly skeptical and perturbed population that's about ready to suck on a f'n covid pipe out of frustration anyway!