Typhoon Tip

I see his point though ... I had this conversation with Ekster years ago...when the ETA was just becoming the NAM, how the model was kind of like a 'victim of its own success'. The problem with immense computing power operating on very small grid spacing ...means you're starting to tap into the uncertainty principle - as a metaphor. I don't mean really down at the quantum scales.. .but.. .in some ways, something similar happens. Just apply electrons to a system that 'predicts' based upon very finite inputs for finite scales, you end up with overly emphasized forces and factors that "giga" motion the system into unwanted results - in effect, you open Pandora's box of fractals. . Models can't ultimately predict the future? That's not really what's happening when the models are fired off... They are predicting likely outcomes, with ever decreasing probability for success in doing so at that, for every quantum instant of time that elapses further and further into the future. But the actual reality of the future cannot really be ascertained without actually being in the future, because of mercurial nature of ( almost ) unavoidable chaos. By the time we get to day fives, we're ...I dunno somewhere in the 40th to 60th percentile for success, and it's dependent upon the 'stability' of the pattern at hand there. Day ten? Forget it... 10 maybe 20% tops.. Which means, by those deeper range time spans the unpredictable, unknowable future circumstances that emerge along the way ( chaos ) have corrupted the futility of models down to guess work, all but entirely. There is a theoretical limit to that success rate. Models can max out. We're not there yet. But techniques, such as ( maybe ) the Euro 4-d normilzation schemes, which are remarkably successful at picking and choosing those spontaneously emergent distractions that need to be 'canceled out', can be applied to models with NAM-like finite grids. Who knows..just spit-ballin' there. But there's room to improve ... and all those improvements combined, we'll never get 100% accurate at some theoretical limit, because ultimately ... the uncertainty of chaos cannot be preordained. The only way to do so ... as hinted by that parenthetical 'almost' above ... is to control the future. Science fiction ...for now. But, if there can be conjured technology that governs the quantum momentum state of every particle that embodies the fluid medium of the atmosphere, sufficiently that it suppresses "butterflies" .. then you don't have to predict the weather: the solution is, push this button if you want a sunny day. But you know what's funny ...? In a philosophical sense, even in such a fantasy futuristic world, there is uncertainty in a system that 100% capable of modulating the weather. Because there's no guarantee that the operator won't be influenced by either a foreign agent, or lapse into some sort of psychosis that entices him/her to push typhoon buttons. God have mercy on those souls in that realm of existence.

Hm .. the former GFS had multiple biases, each one could skew reality in their own right and at times mimick the other bias' ... at other times, offset. Really frustrating that way... For example, the model's progressive bias - it ablates the tops of ridges down too quickly in the mid range. This has feed backs that cause new errors... for one, ends up increasing confluence over eastern Canada ( just one example in many ...), which then we have overly strong BD/west moving CAD signals... That is a cold bias result, in a model with a warm boundary layer problem. Zoink There's other areas where is seems to contradictory bias its self... Maybe that fooled the testers/QC evaluators ( ha ha...kidding here) because between heat wave boundary layers of 114 F at Nashua NH, while given least excuse imaginable to snow in D.C. from a BD cold air mass in July ... you end up with the right temperature for NYC. Yea ...see? good model.

It'll be interesting to see if that general rain with embedded downpours over N. NJ clips CT or not..

Agree ... Like I said earlier, Euro may be too anxious to sans the blocking tendency we've enjoyed since circa March. It's been a crushing 70 days of -NAO tendency...the likes of which I don't think I've seen since perhaps late Novie thru early Jan 2004 ... Only happening as precisely and exquisitely wrongly timed for summer enthusiasts.. .ha wah wah - Anyway ... the Euro's been bucking for much less blocking now some six cycles and counting... Even despite the D10 cold front ( which looks dubious for other reasons) on it's 12z run is doing so in a neutral NAO (hint) ... at this time of year, I'd like to see actually more -NAO for a front that cleaning...

I have the PDF demo for it but the site says it exceeds the file size limit. Pretty comprehensive comparison.

Right ...right... It's all clear now -

There's Navier-Stokes based fluid mechanics and themodynamics... Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the "James-Kevin" equation -

It is a model as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between accuracy and fiction, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the model of imagination. It is an area which we call the miss-guidance zone.

The Euro's been onto this for a while - speaking to the straw man in the room... The GFS operational on the other hand, it keeps doing everything least imaginable to sop heat from gettting north of the 40th latitude ... particularly as those regions pertain to the northeast regions of U.S. and SE Canada, all f'n spring. It's like it's been stuck stubbornly in February. Thing is ...I'm not really prepared to completely deny it's current cooler eroding of ridges to be honest. It's been a blocky spring ... so the GFS has been sort of right more than less. Whenever the GFS creates another blocking nodes say ... north of James bay, its westerlies suppress south underneath, and that ablates the ridges.. which sends an ensemble line of warm scouring cfropas ..if not BDs our way, and that seems to have really verified as the predominating signal since March. The GFS continues to ignite blocking nodes up north over Canada and throughout the Greenland rough lat/lons... consistent with the -NAO, notwithstanding east or westerly biased limb. Euro on the other hand is presently indicating less blocking .. In fact, not really characteristic of that season long persistent trend? That trend denial... it probably shouldn't bode too well for warmth and summer enthusiasts over the next 7 to 10 days ... but, it doesn't mean the Euro should be summarily counted out. The GEFs NAO curve is finally elevated at both agencies... It may be a sign that the GFS is holding out too long too. I think it's worth the conversation because one model is more temperately characterizing with changeability ...70s...to low 80s with convection chances... While the other model has more of persistent summery look evolving, with multiple days in the mid or upper 80s.

sure does... I almost wonder what/if the phase-diagram might look like outta Fl state ... Like, do the bubblets try to meander tauntingly toward the warm core quadrant for a jiff...

Oh you don't have to remind me... I was one of the ones pointing that out - the MOS was doing it all spring. But there is a difference here.. Namely, the pattern is seasonally normalized quite a bit, by way of having moderated the heights upward unilaterally ...though still with some similar blocking constructs continuing - tru. But it is different, so I'm not sure if that 'correcting behavior' still going to take place given the newer regime. We'll have to see.. btw, ... for how little it is worth the extended Euro came in with the onset of the seasons for pan-eastern U.S. heat wave. 20 C 850s everywhere with clear heat-feed-back geopotential ridge dome blossoming. Obviously it's eye-candy for summer/heat enthusiasts but... This run is the fourth cycle in the row where it doesn't really get cool beyond this week's shenanigans. This may be what folks are seeing/exaggerating, in observing that general panache. But beyond D4 this is a warm-ish looking run. Not willing say how warm...just talking synoptic polish -

Actually ... in Kevin's defense there is something showing 85 to 90. The GFSX MOS FIT N/X 52 82| 51 66| 52 71| 50 84| 64 88| 68 86| 67 88| 65 55 78 BDL is also coming in with 8 to 10 over climate for D4, 5, 6 and 7, which is actually increasingly more difficult for this particular product due to climate normalizing for those ending days there. In fact, I'd go so far as to say these numbers look warmer than the synoptics would suggest. Interesting

This is true down our way, too.. Big one's. Like they brush against your forearm while keying the front door at dusk and it's a race.. But they have weight.. I mean, you can feel them brush. Long striped legs hangin' precipitously while probing in the air to target their syringe. I'm thinking that we had that ephemeral dry couple of years and that might have helped keep the population down. But, though we didn't have a lot of snow below NNE latitudes ... central, we did get lots of rain this last winter, Now the wet spring and verdant environment is giving them a comeback. I don't know but can't really even be outside when it's calm and mild between 6-9 pm now or you're getting pin-pricked all over.

Right right ... and the expression "nothing saying that" could not possibly be related conceptually to, "not high confidence" in the first place. I mean.. this is dumb, provincial nimrod pettiness to begin with but still... - it really is fascinating actually watching information as it is getting distorted through one's preferential lens. Completely elides qualifiers. Master of ripping out of context to promote an alternate fact - Fact of the matter is, he's a good-hearted troll. Always has been. He's doing it on purpose

Yup .. as part of the "temperatre summer" definition... we should get periods of corrective instability ... warm rolls in...overrunning this... might or might not wedge in before cfropa boomers...rinse repeat

ha... It's like he takes whatever there is in the summer and auto lies/tacks on 5+ degrees of both temp and DP... and vice versa in the winter.

I'm not sure I buy the nor'easter the NAM has... Not just because it is the NAM outside of 30 hours either. The GGEM tried to do that too... Both seem to be a bit convectively fed-back some there. It seems the baroclinic parameterization of the region along the MA and near-by west Atlantic isn't supportive enough. It could see a warm frontal wave lifting with that, sure ... but the NAM's curling so much surface pressure conveniently back around the N side of that whole mmm Could be creating its own positive feed-back by being too deep with that surface wave in the first place.

Agreed ... The Euro operational appears to be a warm outlier. Even the EPS means seems less warm pervasive comparing to that 00z run for those periods/days beyond five. I did comment on the 00z Euro yesterday when it, too, looked interestingly warm ..but this overall has double downed and really made it 80 D5 to 90 D10 across the range. The GFS isn't really interested. I can see something in between...as both models appear to be playing up their respective biases. The Euro may be hooking the inside slider S/W over the west, too prodigiously S early on as a typical albeit subtle bias for that model...which down stream helps maintain warmth... Contrasting, the GFS may be too eager to ablate/tamp down ridging as it also has a subtle tendency to do because of it's progressive bias. A compromise is a temperate summer pattern. Which could be wrong..sure. Either tendency could end up right anyway. Course of least regret for now is nothing annoying cool and clammy or obnoxiously sack sticker hot and heavy.

Heh...it's there but it appears more disorganized with limited parameter support. The general synopsis features a weakening L/W quasi closed structure in the MS/western TV regions that is opening up into a vestigial shear axis.. before getting absorbed in the newly arriving northern stream surge coming toward Lakes region... The combination of the two temporarily veers the deep layer flow more unilaterally upright along the EC and drives some higher PWAT air up along the cordillera and coastal regions ...eventually throughout New England by early Tuesday, ...just before said N/stream bullies a front through and cleans house later in the day... But that's beyond overnight.. Any time we transport a warm PWAT rich air mass toward a region that is initially cooler in the low levels ...overrunning can contain convection. With the general amorphous nature to the overriding mechanics ...it's probably more likely packets of showers/embedded lightning episodes. Low/nominal probability for severe ...but heavy rain here and there.

Euro operational is a bit on it's own ( though has some support by the EPS mean) for this next weekend. The GFS is really out of phase in the lower troposphere ...and the GGEM has yet it's own rendition. But the operational Euro has a modest heat signal there. Despite the strung out west to east oriented trough over southeast Canada Saturday and Sunday, the 00z solution portends a bit of elevated heights ... on the order of a quarter to perhaps half SD, rippling underneath the said vortex structure. This subtle S/W ridging at 500 mb is toting along a swath of well-mixing 850s that are in the neighborhood of 13 or 14 C on by late Saturday ...maturing to perhaps 16 or so by late Sunday. Given sufficient sun you got mid 80s to near 90 - hence 'modest' heat signal. It's certainly rather tedious in its self, but .. for me the interesting aspect is to observe a ridge/plausible warm day(s) couch inside a larger synoptic scope that features more a +PNAP structure - which would be more consistent with a cool look. That's actually an anomaly. 'Course... Euro probably changes that entire evolution on the next run .. Otherwise, that might also be convectively risky ...if we get some modest heat with that large depression in heights lurking near-by southeast Canada, and perturbation probably ignites fast moving activity.

When weather entertainment is rather uninspired ... this.

Too much evasion too

I don't know why or how you comprehended what I wrote the way you ( seemed ) to, but I wasn't "reading into" anything. I was asking a question as to whether the lack of sun made folks feel ripped off - period. But also gave reasons why they "might" be predisposed to feeling that way, too, as a supposition. Sounds like the your reading into what I wrote as someone reading into something ...hahaha... Jesus christ around here - wow

You'd be surprised... ( maybe, maybe not) Most people that I know, in my own Bacon-sphere ... about half of those like 90s with low dew point - Arizonian outback stuff. Which may not be what you had in mind when you mentioned "who wants 90s?" If you are thinking 90s/70s ... even 90s/60s, then the average preference does slope off when DP enters the consideration. But even so, there are still those that like torridity in there, too.

Glancing over all these numbers ... Temperatures did not really average appreciably negative for the Meteorological spring ( March-April-May). There did occur a bit more of a neggie signal in March, but that appeared to differentiate for April and May, with an interesting altitude dependency ... Worcester, for example, averaged negative for all three months combined ...whereas the Hartford and Providence rolled-up more 'noisy' decimal negative for the time period, due to April and May actually being modestly positive. So a split.. It's hard to know why that took place. By and large... where 90-some-odd percent of civility resides ( and note...I do not include the ole boy traditional a-hole stalwart impediment to progress Logan Airport "climate" site ), spring temperatures were not significantly cold. Unless you live atop a pine canopy at 1,200 feet. Seems a fair assessment was a modestly negative spring considering all. I suspect the impression of this spring as being so horrible may have more to do with lack of sunny days? Recall... despite Memorial Day weekend, last weekend, ...and now this weekends utopia days these are more at fortunately timed. For the beleaguered denizens, the historic number of cloud/measurable rainfall days that was also registered empirically along the way, feeling so deprived may be understandable. I just wonder if a sunnier spring had taken place at the same general temperature, would folks be grousing about 'days getting shorter in just two weeks.' Others in this supposed "weather" -related support group social media even go so far as all but admittedly wish the summer away by making that statement, others commiserate the notion.. But, it's a slow slow process... Unless OCD and/or some form of S.A.D. so acute is involved... most won't even notice the loss of daylight until circa August 20th at our latitude(s)... After which it starts to accelerate, granted, but that's still some two months and ten days away... Numerically, 1/6th of a year. See? You can put a spin on matters the other way, just the same... No one ever efforts to do that though - intriguing. Plus, it'll probably end up the the hottest July-September in history or something ... This is what I want for those that wish summer away... I was musing the other day about the faux poetica of weather; it's a good thing there really isn't any, because if it never snowed or even got cold again, we'd know who to blame. Ha!