Typhoon Tip

And so it begins... ...the Euro crosses that critical temporal window where contrary to recent popular voice it tends to lay down the law ...and sees this, which is has been in play ( frankly ) for days - ... something's likely out of this. Sorry I think we just went to yellow - ... still can't get detailed but present take -away is > 50% for transitioning system into a colder profile -

get used to it .. .. maybe i mean , that sort of open screaming UVV explosion is a N-stream typology and I think one that could typify this winter. I could see us getting an assortment of clipper/M-b type upper MA/NE specials this year... just sayn'

...said the Woolly Mammoth lol 'it would suck to be encased in flash permafrost before even finishin' this cud'

just off the cuff observation on this chart ... probably? we wouldn't get that thing under in that geometry and speed max without generating thunder claps in a narrow band somewhere a click or two latitude N side of that kink ... That's a whopper frotogen look there...

yeah... re the phasing - I still see this as a fascinating exercise in the models attempting to do so through an unusually narrow N-S region of the hypsometric medium. It's a fast flow/progressive scenario with superb timing - which is crucially the handling that needs to be done the right way to get to these solutions... if the south outpaces the north just a little more it's ripped open ravioli - That UKMET solution is an NJ Model bomb technically ... as is the GGEM trying to move in that direction - ... NJ model lows tend to affect narrower regions but this one also has a smearing into NN because there's jet enhancing in the N stream ... lot happening there

thx!

yeah no ...recently posting demo's the consensus on this... Just personal experience says no and the data at 1,000 K high, pure Earth ORH ( meaning not weirdly polluted by favoring either way...) shows the noise of it - see Will's post.

Tam' ..it doesn't 'really' work anywhere - hahaha

heh... like we're saying, it looks noisy - there may be some super structure there ... check back in with us in 100 year's worth of substantiated data - but by then we won't exist because of Climate change so what's the point... lol

Aside from the fact ... and obvious, how does a geographical area tantamount to a pin prick on the fabric of space-time scale statistically guide the Universe - LI ??? really - it's meaninglessly tiny ... wtf - I mean just don't. Stirring or not, one just abases themself - But also, lucky for him ...the models don't have much snow on LI.. In fact, given the narrow corridor in which this whole thing mechanically plays out...it could snow 9" in S Vt. ...2" at Tolland, and 0 on LI and still be within a fair framework of being successfully forecast - so he's safe. I don't see a lot of "blue" QPF down there anyway .. a little, but that's white rain even in the Para G where that is.

Oh just leave it... it's funny -

Yeah...I don't believe so? But Will/others are at mastery of this/that I bet they've got some insights... I'm just basing it anecdotally and existential which of course carries a modicum of assurance risk - hahaha

Lol ... btw... I didn't write the title of this thread - it was done so on my behalf ...it's all good - but, for the record, I do not believe the October thing is really true - ... not until we have a bigger sample size. Fact of the matter is, the orbital perspective is both favorable and hostile to winter odds. Since 2000... we have been in an era - in general - that favors earlier cool snap... Packing pellet, virga -exploded CAA cumulous and/or outright snow supporting synoptic air masses have become far more commonplace than prior to then... Yet, in this time span, we have had both good winters and bad winters ... down-time of said Fall seasons - I think that is the take away? It's really noise - but ...hm, we are human we can remember 2011 probably more clearly do to the acute irony lol

..ah, very vestigial ... it's just imho but ...I see that kind of cane-fusion mania as a modern model propensity to do this in the autumns.. moreso an artifice of modeling, in other words. I've been harping ... perhaps annoyingly ( lol ) but since the late 1990s, when model resolution and total platform expansion and ensemble this and all these different physics go involved, and then the temporal ranging of modeling really fell over the distant horizon, we've been seeing these exotic time range virtual plausibility scenarios like that. That's A B ... I think this 'potential' - already in place and thus humbly I suggest is already successful as early recognition we made awhile ago - is really based on a recognizing something else entirely than modeling behavior. I think it reflects a model hemispheric change in transition seasons, and I hypothesize it has to do with velocity in the westliers being augmented - and that is driving NE Pac tipping flow/ continental folding of patterns earlier in autumns ... This is causing cold loading events in the Canadian shield. I don't know if this is climate change -related... ? It's a fantastic question but...it could also be part of the multi-decadal Arctic Oscillation curve, which I believe reasonably well positively correlates with the PDO/AMO and the Solar Cycle... All three of these overlays show they tend to move together, and they all flag -EPO and -NAO/ flipping these neggie - The interesting aspect is that the NAO has been lagged and/or retardedly out of sequence ... but therein' is the velocity saturation in the flow...I think it is stretching the field and the NAO is fragile compared to the majestic Pac domain region and the latter I think denies the former it's blocking at times...when the flow is fast and that is favoring/sending a progressive signal down wind of the Pacific maelstrom. ...it's a lot of intuitive jargon and supposition - not averring this is 'the way of the world' just some thoughts.

Yeah... as an aside ... we seem to be in an era where ( perhaps 'synergistically' ) anomalous results are more so favored. It's interesting... but the word "anomalous" means whatever's in question is an expression of Standard Deviation, which should be rarer by convention. But what it is, is that we are emerging out of a period of relative predictability and climate quiescence...and perhaps indicative of a changing climate; these sort of things or more likely to occur moving forward. We have to remember ...statistics are based upon what has happened, and then we base a prediction/ .. event on that data set, but that by virtue of being in stable past, means that it may also be illogical to apply said data set to the present or future - But blah blah ...I just wanted to say that ... it could "powder" out ... It could - I don't think so? but it could ...because sometimes if/when an event is going to just pour over an SD threshold it just goes ahead and hammers the location completely out of whack to really put stank on it... So yeah, it's the end of October - we 25 F in aggregates getting even small of all things. But even in 2011 event, it was hard to get "that" kind of snow going and it's more likely this wends its way into a 31.5er if we really get to a synoptic event. I'm sure you/we all know this stuff..just sayn'

That's a great QPF impression of where the mid level frontogenic forcing is located... as at the time of this frame, there is a lagged mid level just max nosing N of that llv baroclinic wedge along where the cyclone is nodal... But that is UVM driving lift up the frontal slope aloft and causing that subtle magenta tinting heavy snow band to spill out along that axis there in interior SNE... It's not a declaration/ .. forecast for that to actually occur, just what the model is illustrating/ physical plausibility of the virtual event it creates. But, this sort of phenomenon DOES happen sometimes... and warm ground or not, if such a band evolves that probably 3 solid hours of S+ there and thunder clap or two as well, you'd be accumulating - probably it ends with glops clopping off the off trees and powerlines... and then star lit late evening we actually cement things over night.... crazy - but ... timing wins with that cold air availability working under "mid level magic" as it were

mm... not that same phenomenon - keep tryin' lol no I get what ur saying but exciting to cover the first is an entirely different phenomenon. It won't ( for me ) languish moods if it doesn't work out - because there is no codependency on it to modulate one's sense of well-being ...It's part of the psychotropic e-addiction problem in society/ civility regardless, covered recently in documentary et al - this isn't just me ...where people are depending upon positive feedback in a soulless society of shallowing narcissists... sounds like a good 'cultural implosion' model for a Sci Fi novel but tho I take liberties ( poetically ) in that description, the problem with personal reliance on the web for both re enforcing personally ideologies, to creating 'faux happiness' was covered in 60-minutes, and it documented elsewhere and is real - again..it's not just me. Although..I started noticing this phenomenon 10 years ago prior to it's popularization in marginal observation sciences... Anyway, I don't wanna derail this ... It's exciting to cover the season's first multi-faceted synoptic event ...nothing more.

Probably the 1 to 1.5" of strat cool moderate banding QPF rain helps more .. but any transition to snow would be wet and will contain a decent water content so it all helps to bring Humanity back from the dessicated brink of mortality ...

That is a fascinating coincidence ...or is it... ? It's wildly differing topically to mention: but...I'm noticing that there is always a tropical entity evacuating out of the lower latitudes of the SW Atl Basin when the models are kinking the the flow and drilling CAA events across SE Canada... It's hard to separate the chicken and the egg but it seems like the there's a super-set of equations that kind of signals favorable tropics prior to the pattern actually modulating into a continental buckle - ...just sayn' lol But yeah... there may in fact be reproducible "quasi reduxes" to this shit -

ah,..sorry guys - sure thx ... admin moving too quickly this morning ftw ! lol

yup! ...I cited these notions too earlier on last eve and how this has 'no margin for error' It's a phasing deal but doing so thru an unusually narrow longitude - interesting... There's actually three entities btw ... The Para G and oper. G are both coherent with Zeta remnants peeling S of LI ... Could bring some IB over the nascent polar front and then we "lull" ( maybe ...) whatever is falling at that time - probably goes to raw mist... But then the N/stream couples and subsumes the S/streams ... and #3 crucially as you said, 'legit cold' loading arrives .. It's hard to even pull a barrier/drain jet out of that synopsis, though there's likely to be 925 mb accelerations around typical topography. But the point is .. with whole region C-NE --> S seeming to wall at once, that signifies a deep-ish layer that means bidness' .. I could see people 44 F in light to moderate rain, then cat pawing at 39 when I see that... start going to parachutes at 37 in that look, shedding T's in a pulse and subtle backing wind direction. As an aside, we're seeing unusual temperature variance either side of ambient polar fronts in recent autumns. < 0 C 850s temps reside where mere 300 naut mi S still supports 80 F ...spanning along vast stretches of the continent .. Autumn extremes are not hugely unusual, but that 'not huge' is becoming 'more usual' in autumns since ~ 2000... 62 F like days with clouds and blase slope sun, and then 37 with cat paws the next day is deceptively non-dramatic and slips under awareness in a modernity that is perhaps too distracting/culturally to think of it as significant .. or perhaps 'jolting' is just becoming too commonplace in itself to take note of it. But the first 30 years of my life, it was not that frequent that mere 24 hourly temp changes needed to be nearing 30 F as frequently as it has in the last 20 years... way more common than it used to be. Even doing so spanning 72 hours.. it's relative to all temporal scales ... increased frequency of larger variance. altho today 'feels' like a step down drab Either way, it's always exciting to cover the season's first snow ..even if it is just in the air.

Oh it’s likely to be a notable TC ... it’s got that tightly coherent nucleus look garland by that pink nausea cold ... dumping ocean sodium into the the lower stat I wonder what the IOH is down there. Prolly gotta dive a half mile to get the cline waters under 80...

I’d still take the Euro at day 4.5 over all others.

Very little margin for error on that at the end of the week… it’s a “ flat wave phase“ for lack of better words… The whole thing between the N/stream and S/stream rejoining the former ... is being pancaked through a very compressed field but these runs ( Euro bites midway as others noted) still trying eek constructive sequence with good cadence .. other run cycles may be a bit more distracted Once again it’s going to come down to what happens in the west with the Heights; first the pattern dumps a quasi-close low into the SW than that feature gets bumped east… And then as it moves through the Mississippi Valley and starts to turn north east thru the Tennessee Valley it all depends on how much the flow tips Northwest over the Great Lakes; if there’s a better post ejection ridge response the N/stream corrects steeply and that’s gonna make all the difference in the world. Note this thing’s been on the chart for for five days I wrote about this and that it had certain hallmarks of being something that shouldn’t be ignored and I still think so what that exactly is going to entail ... we’ll see. Not gonna be shocking with that much cold air burgeoning into Ontario and then filtering/pulled into the circulation as it matures underneath that this would get all the way down at the lower elevations at least into interior southern New England perhaps the second half for synoptic snow in the air gaining some possibility Central NE easier

Word! ...it's pretty much when I grew up as a fantasy Met into an adult pragmatic Met - lol... Before then, the specter of gaining 50 F in 12 hours was just too magnificent to believe... Since then nothing is amazing - geez It was 12 F at 8 am with flurries under very light pellets ... at 8 pm it was 61 on the monitor up at the UML lab ...while white noise turbines straining trees. And as you said, wind-whipped fogs shrouds being yanked off snow banks ... Students were pouring out of dorms to rejoice in the faux nature of the warmth ... energy and love for the loss - I mean..if one is a winter enthusiast. I think I was shaking my head in awe at one moment standing wondering how in the the f that was possible.. Yeah 8 am the next morning I think it was it was like 30 but cold enough to recement- ... Seriously, it was lessen in not being plugged into the the temp on the dial, when there is 0 polar high N of the region.. The high was retreating overnight and abandoned it's own decoupled air mass...so the cold was very low level... probably only 2000 feet deep with a hugely positively sloped sounding over top I imagine... But for those of us privy to our local climo ... all you need is " 1 " in polar high N and it disproportionately takes 12 to 18 more hours than even a quantum scale resolution model to admit the the cold is in place ...so, we get a payback on barrier jets and tucking when our moods fixed on keeping the goods and there's like any drain available at all... It just sucks when we get that going in early April -