Typhoon Tip

yeah...but to elaborate on what should be glaring... every passing hour that there is no center or enough momentum therein, shades the potential of this thing... at this point, it looks like it's already into the eastern Caribbean gauntlet where most bambi's take a bullet - mm gee....looks like the conservative genesis approach of the Euro may have merited in this case ?

Somewhat interesting ... the 18z GFS appears to have partially capitulated to those GGEM ilk kind of sticks the Euro on an island by its self. I mentioned this earlier… The Euro has a history of being a bit delayed with initiation in the tropics wondering if this is one of those times

Kind of interesting ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined take a look at the fixated fog bank out SE of the Cape ...notice the southern edge seems to be permanently etched out of free space ?? I suspect that is demarcating a cold water/warm water interface, and everywhere that is fog-side is the colder SSTs ...

94/70 ... unfun

Going by the "10 after 10" adage ... we'd be 100 today here... 91 already ...and it feels it

No one asked... but that appeared to me to be a hybrid frontal triggered deal that sort of then relied upon MCS nocturnal sounding ... then suffered the typical diurnal morning decay. I've seen that alot ... when I first tuned in around 8 am that looked like it was going to rumble down Rt 2 and we never saw any clouds from that here in N. Middlesex Co in Mass... As the sun rose, the CB turrets stopped and you end up with mid level band that resumes a NE motion away from the previous right turn. But, you can see a subtle outlow trace left behind so perhaps trigger axis?

So bearing very little resemblance at mid level tropospheric layout and/or synoptic evolution ... those forcing governors manage to relay a TC ( assuming so...) up the EC similar to the track and speed behavior of Irene ... At least per some of the operational versions that are more coherent with development... Granted, the Euro and GFS are not impressed with this system and never have been. That said, even these guidances have come around ( a little bit ..) more polished with the developmental complexion of the would-be TC .. overnight. It may still yet be that the system is being under-done therein, pending a better detection of actually existing in the initialization grids for these global numerical models. Contrasting, these other guidance ... such as the stellar performing NAVGEM and the shimmering gallory of mediocrity museum-able GGEM...to mention the HWRF ( wooh, bestill our quaken dystopian lustful hearts) may simply be more physically sensitive to parametric variables - thus don't need as much to development matters further. Speculating.... Earlier in this thread I was of the school that there was no way to get an EC crawl and/or expresser given the season trends - and of course... proving the existence of metaphysical forces governing all... summarily the pattern begins to change toward one that would, only "seemingly" by pure coincidental timing. We'll have to see ...

Bahama blue pattern... Pixel showers with narrow turrets that blind windshields for thirty seconds and lower the backyard temp from 84/75 to 79/78 before resets... Sometimes training though -

Nothing

Really ... I've seen snow at least in the air in 5 of the last 8 Octobers, 3 novembers hosting winter storm warning verification - I guess if one can't wait a month post Sept one they're probably not lucid enough to pay attention to anyway ..

Everyone gets a f'ing F!

We've been hotter with cooler 850s ... something is preventing the mixing depth today - let's just stick with that.

'course I haven't seen the 12z Euro yet...

Meh... looks to me like an incremental step by the GGEM/NAVGEM....etc, toward a suppression - reluctant capitulators to the Euro ...just need another two or three cycles to have this down to a TW southwest of Jamaica... But, at least it spurred 7 pages of profligate consumption of fossil fuels to power the internet and the engagement for absolutely nothing - lol

Yeah...I figured as much ...but unlike you, when I try to explain this sort of detail people automagically don't get it and stare at me blankly as some sort of metaphysical curse to not get it - Kidding but that said ...there's still some value in their being the same - rounding conventions notwithstanding - ...

excruciating nerd ob ... but, I just swept the ASOS and as of the same five minute interval, HFD/BOS/ASH/BED/MHT were all exactly the same temp to the decimal, 93.2, and, all were at their high temp pegged. I just thought that was an interesting result... Also, 97/66 at KTAN is respectable !

actually frontalysis is an option too... I just want strobe lightning -haha

I don't know, Brian ... still looks to me like the Euro trough axis ( 500 mb isohypsotic layout) remains west ... The 12z NAM is really not very cfropa convincing now through 60 hours... Has ALB with SW BL flow, and hypsometric values at or exceeding 570 DAM at 60 hours... with 27 C in the T1 late Wednesday does not in total hearken to the front really getting through. Looks like a hang-up job to me. I'm only saying because we could be setting up for some convection ... TCU as this p.o.s. con-job heat wave collapses into theta-e pooling

This isn't a bad assumption or guess or ..surmise...or insight ( pick whatever is less offensive and extends the best adulation ) ... Because as we know, shallow systems tend to run along with the trade vectors...and the steering/integral with the streering level needs the virtue of actually having a vertical structure to tap into that level... Such that sustained updrafts are then influenced - In a way... the quasi-coupling with the oceanic heat source is crucial in that it is not absolutely coupled...if so, it would always shear apart...but, it sort of sinusoidally cycloids/tilts ...where the direction of the storm motion always leans some imperceptible amount in the direction the storm is moving - .... heh...cool!

See those fractals and shrapnel of SAL inside the busted ravioli region of the blown open vortex ....??? that's what's left of the venom once it is ingested and mixes with, and ultimately physically stops the pseudo-adiabats from timely release of latent heat... The way SAL works/is theorized...by the way ... is that it infuses "too much of a good thing" into the cloud seeding levels of the sounding... Such that when condensates are super-proficiently gather early system doesn't benefit from the time-corriolis part of the dynamics, and the system is effectively stopped from organizing mechanically -

Mm...I would add that momentum isn't the only thing wrong with trying to move this elephant's ass... There is a huge envelopment of SAL that is wrapped cyclonically into the wester circumvallate of the best perceived cyclonic region ...actually looks like the stinger on a TC death hornet

So Logan's 90 at 10:30-ish... any rounding pettiness notwithstanding - Figure there's 6 more hours of plausible temp rise - assuming we don't taint the skies like yesterday... seems MOS is aiming well -

yeah...the other thing is that 98 F is within the margin of tech -error/expectation...and when 98 is also ubiquitous, said error may also become ubiquitous/emerge in greater numerical results; and thus, we may all be lied to...and believe it by substantiation power of multitude, which will be sufficient for the drama and excitement!

Not a convincing 90 by 9'er out there...but, the 10 after 10 does suggest a 97 .. 98ness when allowing for 10+ 2 for d-slope adiabatic drying and compression... Hey, that looks like MOS. Basically... 98/64 ... meh... it's enough to miserable...and bootleg a record for stuffing a weak part of that calendar but it's like a participation trophy -

Not speaking for NHC's policy but...the Euro has a history from my own experience, at downplaying TC genesis...It does fine once the storms are deeper formulated and perhaps 'detectable' - so it seems ...- in the initialization grids. But prior to that, the model does not seem to 'zygote' TCs based off mere ingredients that are present in the environment. Contrasting, ...the GGEM is overly volatile in that regard...taking very little provocation shy of a f'n cumulus cloud ... it runs along and develops them into Cat 4 tempests within five or six days... That was all 10 years ago, tho. Not sure what recent year's performances and how those are comparative to any modeling enhancement with the tropics, since. It's tricky though, ..because the Euro and the GFS: ...the former is a finer meshed model and all that ... with the sophisticated correction schemes and blah blah...but its actual physics are hydrostatic, meaning it relies upon geometric altitude. Contrasting, the GFS is a non-hydrostatic model... using pressure coordinates. By virtue of the tropics, that requires a hypsometric resolution.. and since hypsometry is the integral PV=NRT into the hydrostatic, which is purely altitude, it seems that "might" be why the Euro has trouble with momentum at the lower bounds of TC realization... Which cannot be resolved ( don't believe ) without the vertical resolution and actually pseudo -adiabats are involved in that...duh - to wit, the tropic model/TC is a vertical physical/convection machinery, converting the latent heat to rising motion, is converting thermal energy into a mechanical energy - it really is an extraordinarily elegant, naturally occurring efficient engine - way waaay more so than the internal combustion engines invented by human ingenuity that interestingly...if we keep using, will stop the former eventually. etc.. we suck yet again...and so on, enjoy your breakfasts... So, it seems the Euro would be less better? It is certainly seeming at times too conservative to 'get things going,' that much is prevalent in memory and experience. It may be that it just doesn't have the grid resolution of data in the tropics to populate the grids, too, but with sat sounding so sophisticated these days that's getting to be harder sell... Just thought I'd give the novice engagement of this site a well-deserved pop-cycle headache by saying those words - so run along for you Advil