Typhoon Tip

Boy ... we just can't seem to break this -NAO's back. Seems despite all conjecture heretofore ... some very valid at that, we're still carrying the burden of the winter's ending slosh. When the flow concomitantly relaxed nearing the end of the winter, it just morphed into warm depots at mid and u/a altitudes and latitude and won't stop. We are in summer ... Meteorologically, and that 12z operational GFS may as well be late February. It's just doing so 20 or 30 DAM warmer. But it's a direct flow construction precipitant from a hemisphere that won't stop blocking for any reason - can't hardly disavow that either, when looking at the GEFs mean... I bet if a black hole careened through the solar system and destroyed everything... the -NAO would still remain

Sometimes the deliverance of weather seems to come by way of poetic justice ... For two days and counting ...that vestigial gyre is wobbling around the western TV Valley... VA has had 48 hours of clouds and rain... While we enjoy pretty much as close to utopia weather as is physically plausible on Earth. Yes there are fringe tastes that don't include these days in their dimensions of what perfection is... we're talking about the average preference here. Right now...out of doors, it is a top 0 moment relative to that. ...If it turns into a whole day's worth, that would be truly an amazing feat, as this degree ( puns always on purpose ) of satisfaction should be unknowable at extended lengths of time. The uncertainty principle, upon which all of reality is constructed, ensures that perfection can only be a theoretical state in a universe moving through time as a system of fractals. So, for the Tenn Valley over to the lower M/A ...where they bathed in May summery bliss ...while we ate grapple cold rains ... this satellite image could not be more mirrored: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ And it sort of looks like 'their turn in the barrel,' doesn't it. By the way ... this is the third weekend in a row where we've lucked out on timing these sort of days. Much of Mem Day weekend was in the top 10 percentile ...and last weekend was pretty darn nice, too. Now this...

I was wondering if we may end up in a Bahama blue conveyor them two days ... ... Tropically cleansed blue sky next to bright white narrow glaciators... It's one of my favorite skies across the perennial types -

Yeah ...as far as this spring leading factors/indicators go... the continental hydro anomalies could be an offset - I'm glad someone brought this up. I've been thinking about that too. I was wondering if some of the reasons why the Euro was shirking the amplitude of the present ridge, back five days ago when it kept seeming to spontaneously 'deflate' it without having any mechanical... if some of that might have actually been an environmental feed back of having excessive rainfall out west. This ridge's wave spacing passed synoptic squarely through that region of country prior to setting up max amplitude nearing NYC ... It seems once that finished...the Euro came on board... Could all be coincidence but I don't like those so much -

Heat waves fascinating me .... ( seeing as you asked ) ... probably not 'quite' as OCD as the winter stat bent 'round deez pahts ...but, I do find them to be a worth-while study/science as far as recognizable synoptic presaging markers, and also an empirically significant sensible phenomenon that is ( imho ) not nearly respected enough. Heat should be right up there with the fab four weather phenomenon, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes and lightning. Firstly ... typically when we hear the word "heat .." it's conflated with "drought" .... 'Heat and drought already taking massive tolls due to climate change' ...etc. That's certainly true. The two "tend" to overlap. But, heat in and of its self is not a requirement for drought... Nor ( really ) is drought required for heat. They may exacerbate one another ...true, if we wanna get into that. But, we can certainly suffer a historic number of triple digit days in a summer season while maintaining only a modest drought footprint on the landscape. Case in point ...as far as I can quickly look up on the Web ...1911 was not a particularly 'drought' stricken season - it did however have big heat. Most to point ... 2012 was a huge costly season to agriculture sectors, as well as those industrial sectors that are either directly or indirectly disposed to 'normalcy' in agrarian activities ..which is a vast subsequent envelope. Corn derivatives are in shockingly broad spectrum of solid state physical componentries of society ...etc.. goes the complex integration of the environment to gear the machinery of a lot that is taken for granted... Not to make this about social commentary ... My point is, that year stymied production there, as well as direct cross over into live-stock. And the list goes on... We start getting into eco system break downs and species forced migration ( which includes Humanity limbs already ...as can be indirectly studied in Baltic migration since 2000 due to farm collapse...)... with increased frequency of associated mutations of disease -related pathogens that can be empirically, directly linked to the diaspora. But I'm digressing all over... With so many problems that can be directly related to climate busting heat numbers ...It's interesting that the list above does not include Heat ... I would also include Cold in that too... Temperature in general. I mean ....hell. One of the grand chalenges of the Astronomic sciences is to locate life on other words. They have identified, around stars, these "Goldie Locks" zones... or, regions that are close enough to melt ice, but far enough to maintain liquid water... Intrinsic in that definition is clearly a temperature concern! hello - ... With life's fragility inexorably linked to the vitality of a system, and said vitality apparently at least in part defined by the existence of about a 50 F band width of temperature, seems logical that is something we should recognize in the threat discussion.

And then the 00z suite came out ... I've been biding my time in expectation for this normalcy. All the models did this. They "tendency" the geopotential heights ( the baser metric for the pattern orientation) to elevate higher, post each successive trough passage. Such that by D10 ...all majors, the Euro, GFS, GGEM ... and the parallel GFS for that matter, actually end up on average some 10 DAM height higher as the canvased layout across all of North America. Perhaps more concomitant, the 850mb thermal layout/oscillatory waves between cool and warm plumes is also warmer on both sides. This happens ever year ...much in the same way it goes the other direction in October... ( circa ). You're in this tug-o-war between seasons ...edging cooler in time, but still seeing stubborn ridges bouncing back. Then all at once, the ridges only bounce back to a lower latitude and lower height expansion in the total averaged lay-out, are also farther south... Usually around Halloween. Recent mid October grapple and/or outright parachute odd balls we've been observing are in increasing frequency ... That's sort of a separate matter having to do with the general circulation "irregularity" of the planet in deep deep crisis due to GW... But that's a digression... In a normal autumn, one can see the kind of 'click back' period of time, if they are paying attention. This? It's the antithesis to that that also happens circa late April to Junes... Whether this will reflect in the sensible weather at the surface ( where... when etc) is an operational concern. But the mid level geopotential medium 'ends up' at a higher rest state by D10 ... sort of a hallmark entry into summer from a geophysical perspective. For those that embrace summer, ...want heat and DP and all that ... it's a better probability time for you, not so ironically... about right when it typically should at that.

If it wasn't for the vestigial vortex/shear axis in the TV area over the weekend, Sunday woulda/coulda/shoulda been the first 90 pan-realized day of the season. However...that appears to be cleverly stymied by the weather engineers ... ha. The NAM and Euro blend shows this ...well, most guidance do. They are using that mid level dying long-wave trough to activate an old frontal boundary ... illuminating all kinds of QPF with thunder bombs on the chart, on both sides of said boundary... Even going so far as to hint at weakly closing surface low east of the Del Marva by early Sunday.. This transitively stops us from getting hot. The problem is, the surface pressure pattern can't evolve south of us enough to where the troposphere can take expansion advantage of 590 DAM heights amplifying over us. So we end up with light winds in the interior, with probably ESE marine contamination intruding pretty far inland during the afternoon. 850s are also getting a neggie feed-back because there's too weak of a wind field at that level to import the warm air from OH/PA/NY ...into our region. I think by the time July rolls around this particular year, the atmosphere will have actually succeeded in manufacturing every mathematic plausibility there can physically be in the Natural cosmological universe ... for the sole intent of NOT allowing temperatures to maximize in New England. It's really is quite remarkable... I have lost out attempting to keep track of this plethora of warm offsets, both subtle and gross.

That's the sixth run in with nocturnal lightning up around my hood since March. That would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 300% more than any year, to date, going back to 2013 or so...

I don't think it's "swampy" ... although that expression isn't exactly taking up a whole page outta the AMS glossary either. Still, subjective or not ... the DPs are like 57 to 64 under 76 to 82 this hour... Just sayn'

Yeah..the bootstrapping tech is so so on this site with portables ....

Why didn't you actually contact a Moderator - ... click their avatar ... private message one. Just a suggestion, sarcasm aside

Whatever it is ... you're powerless to stop it

Glad 'here' not 'there' okay -

I got a question for all you Davis and/or what-have-you home weather station techies: what do you do about officiate calibration ? I'm not asking to impugn anyone's data, but... take last June 30 through the 5th of July... there was a 93-96 sort of heat wave ... during which most of the Davis' on Wunder' were consummately higher than any of the 4 major NWS climo ... by hourly and on the 2s... In fact, any station on the site that was equal to NWS were outliers relative to Wunder's site. I'm wondering why that is. It seems logical to assume that the technology its self is not designed to be 3 to 5 F warmer in DP than the NWS calibration technique so... I'm not sure it's a station placement issue or what's up with that.

Hey ...don't blame the realist ...much less the messenger - I bet if you put 100 winters on graph that has a y-axis = licking donkey balls ... 0 being no balls ... 10 a full bj ... > 50 of them are in the 6 or 7 range. It's one of the reasons why I'm usually mailin' it in around the 10th of March and start looking forward to 66 days of mist instead ... because by that point in time, I don't know which is worse - the bj or the north atlantic prison scene. But yeah...that was my goal..

may very well be a temperate summer ... then we get that one mandatory four days of 94 to 96 to make up for it circa Sep 1 through the 10th before we cave toward a blocking early October that gins up lots of good feelings for a winter just before it all rolls-back into a no show

Right ...adding, "moving" anomaly "nodes" around ... that's what creates weather... well, at a fundamental level, differential heating along a curved surface does, but you get what I mean. If the NAO is an east limb variation, and then the anomaly starts retrograding toward a west one, that in its self can create winter storm track changes that effect the latitude where they move off eastern N/A ...etc.. I like to look at the changing numerical values of the teleconnectors combined with the observations of mass-field distribution ... ( just mean where the ridges and troughs are migrating...) This is actually a good point and time to point out why a -NAO may not mean as much for our temperature biases over the next week. Kevin was asking earlier... Firstly, the mean R-wave length in the summer is difficult at times to ascertain ..because they are more amorphously structured in the summer/warm season months... That said, what are identifiable, they tend to be shorter in wave-length. Well... consider that logically: the correlations to the pattern have to thus be different compared to winter, when the coherency of the wave spacing/structures is much clearer, ...and, longer. Thus, a -NAO wester limb blocking is not really the same in June as it is at Christmas... I mean, I should say "doesnt' tend to be" But, this particular week coming up... the Euro's deep lower Maritime gyre doesn't have a very strong over -arcing high height block ... But, because that gyre is so deep, the total anomaly is pulling the -NAO very deep... But that is a situation where the raw -NAO numbers kind of lie ( for lack of better word ) about it's ability to keep our region very cool. In fact, the Euro has 12 C or warmer 850 mb temperatures from D4.5 to almost the end of the run. If the wind stays offshore and it's sunny... it will get into the 80s assuming that sort of scenario verified..

I added some notes to that ... ( I inadvertently posted before finishing typing )

A little snark crossin' ya out like that, perhaps ... but it's really true. Numbers don't mean shit... They only "suggest" ... you have to then observe the mass-field distribution and just think of it this way... We've identified in the past, western versus eastern limbed anomaly distribution and what they mean for 'forcing' pattern constructs here ... Not just in the parlance of on-line weather-related social media but all the way up to officiate offices too... And all that is true for all domain spaces, for that matter... -(+) EPO's out near the the western region of that domain space can make a world of difference where the cold loading into N/A takes place...for example... etc...etc..

Certitude and convection seldom share company... pin pointing precise CB columns in space and time, and who/what happens underneath them is outside the scope of present day technology. Ha. But, just from a synoptic perspective .. there is a medium chance for showers ... Given the regions proximity to the warm sector and available CAPE ... to mention, having a stationary/w-frontal boundary extended west to east through southern VT/NH .. adding an another instability/plausible trigger, the total chance is there. The actual models .. the MESO orientated ones do have QPF blobs erupting upstate NY through mainly central, but spattered throughout southern New England. So .. these synoptic signals, +modeling, should = a fair shot at seeing some lightning over the horizon if not a local thunderstorm. In fact, the 3 KM NAM has an over-achiever slow moving MCC that it seems to blossom in conjunction with either a convectively induced low west of ALB during the nigh... or, is legit and is a concentration. It also depends where you are located ? If you are in central NE proper, the shift may be toward less individual convection and more toward overrunning with embedded/elevated cells.

Meh... soil moisture is overrated due to our small-ish geographical area, and we're not really transporting in a gray-blue tinted horizon air mass with this warm air.. .I'm not sure I see 67+ but we'll see. Unsure on the latter. SRH can be high in those 50 mile gaps below the equatorial sides of these wboundaries but there's a lack of triggers. I'm not sure what bulk shear is like but just eyeballing the surface to 700 mb there's more directional than mass-balance issues. SPC isn't very interested... I think gully rivers and some CG ...

More like a climo -ranged DP surge ... but sure, muggier... warmth I suspect busts too cool by area METs by some. I saw a lot of 77 type temps for metro west... hhheeh... . I'd align the warm front ~ ALB - ASH ... particularly per the 18z suite. NAM inside of 24 hours isn't as bad as some think it's fun to carp - usually when it's not showing something they want. And the GFS is on board as well for at least southern VT/NH with that boundary now... Actually farther N than prior model cycles. Has T1 all the way to 24 C over Logan on a wind coming from a rough Hartford trajectory... That usually means a 2-meter in the 28 C range or roughly 82 to 84 F for common reference. Meanwhile, DPs should be a minimum 63 this far into green-up in the warm sector if that wfrontal placement pans out. It's hard to keep the high temperature under the T1 in June on a SW flow ...and so the MOS is likely got a dimmed climo event in there somewhere...

I tell ya ... too bad this wasn't December 4th with that CDC and CPC tele spread(s) ... we'd be talking and epic to historic early winter expression/potential... It looks like a prelude to a 20-30" climate correction event. I wonder what that means on June 4 tho - heh...

obviously .. .but yeah, I just thought it funny to point it out... It's also spinning it to be not such a big deal the way you put that. I may not be. ... but I've been around and know that the monkeys are running the zoo now more than ever. It's gotten worse -

what the hell are you dudes talking about ... moods this and well-adjusted that... What is that - Then, if someone lucid offers and educated opine re the psycho-babble "support group" nature of the 'between the lines' antics in here, they get admonished? I'm just starting to wonder if this isn't a concentrated consortium of weirdos that happen to be in an era where they can find each other using the web. In any case... That is a humid and warm 24 hours in coming tomorrow, with thunder probable ... when obviously to be determined. So, for those that enjoy summery fair... enjoy. We'll see what the pattern does after but it looks ( to me ) like several days of seasonal to perhaps a tick or two above normal ( in other words ...not very well noticeably so) with decent days...