Typhoon Tip

Curious about that 18z Euro run ?

I wonder why it took so long I mean I'm not complainin' ...it's the NAM deep field .. .but why it took longer to bump that placeholder through the lower OV.. ? interesting -

Haha I know .. it's so funny - ..it's like after all peregrinations and brilliant insights have avered ... gee, it snows more up north - who woulda thunk

Hmm.. play-by-play on the NAM beyond 36 hours ... be that as it may, I think this solution still phases...may later ... but I'm only out to 66

I bet the the 18z Euro holds - or ...we can finally at last petition the gov to discontinue owing tax dollars to that particular org - hahaha

Hey ... I meant that caveat emptor ... 'if the gfs solution pans out ... fo' gettabouit'

I wouldn't worry about titles of threads ... heh but if we must, sarcasm ? "I figured I'd doom for merely posting" being the sarcastic jest -

mmm ... mixed ideas. Statistically, there are diametric signals - like... the QBO is now four months positive and gaining strength - at least in last check in the 30 hPa level, ..or about mid depth along it's vertical tidal journey, ... it was over 10 m/s in the westerly ( positive) phase, and given the previous 3 months, probably continues to rise. That is against the SSW statistics but ... I don't know what the qualifications are honestly? I don't know if that limitation (statistically) like kicks in at 5, 10 ... 15 or 20 m/s... Or, what level..I mean the QBO really terms deeper in the atmosphere before it's momentum washes out and then it starts anew from the other direction - etc..etc... But, 30 is mid depth, and looking at all QBO's ..it's nearing moderate strength so heh - That's a b, we are in a pretty fantastic solar minimum. ... having said that, deliberately just to mock me, God threw this at us: "CME MISSES EARTH: A CME launched into space by a major solar flare on Nov. 29th has missed Earth. This is hardly a surprise. The blast site was located behind the sun's eastern limb; at most, a glancing blow was possible. Auroras watchers can take solice in the fact that direct hits will surely come in the months ahead as Solar Cycle 25 continues to intensify. It's just a matter of time. Aurora alerts: SMS Text..." he's such a dyck - anyway, excluding a Carrington Event swooping down just in time to really give us a cure for the Pandemic ... we are in fact in a solar minimum over the preceding several months of summer,...allowing reduced UVM penetration into the polar domain,... where by theoretically, ozone has increased residence for avoiding being electromagnetically broken down ... ( UV light does that to ozone). Increased ozone is a thermal trap ... such that as planetary waves terminate at high altitudes/latitudes ... ( WAA termination )... the heat is dumped into the PV where the ozone absorbs and viola -...flashes a warm bubble... that then penetrates down due to normal planetary mechanics of the vortex... Interacts with the tropopause...increases the stability .. .PV breaks down, blocking ensues ... -AO So, we have a bad QBO and a good solar ... offsetting - Dice? ...I dunno I'll also point out though...that look there .. "kidney beaning " of the vortex ...wouldn't be related to SSW - it can.. but not in this case. The entire SSW phenomenon --> AO forcing is a huge temporal ..protracted affair. It's like a 20 day gestation. Warm node appears...starts propagating down...it takes 10 days ...then another week to start seeing AO response. There has been no antecedent warm flashing events in the stratospheric over the poles - unless someone has some extra-double top secret data that hides reality -

That's an interesting achievement ... kind of stands in the face of the QBO, huh - Although..you know, with the QBO recently demonstrating the first ever in the 120 year history of it's exposure, failing to succeed it's clock-work timing of oscillatory periods .. it makes me wonder if something is happening in the macro sense of it that is really sort of "disconnecting the circuitry" between it, and the polar regions. ..if perhaps unprecedented/first time. But at the implication level...if that sets up you don't need a split..That's a down right cross polar flow from the deepest N. Hemispheric cryogen factory right into eastern N/A.

Looks like the contention has really been reduced to the amount of phasing between streams. The GFS is being the stubborn limited outlier ... where there is growing consensus from the other guidance. Bit of a guidance battle afoot - I know the Euro has taken it's licks in the last couple years ...I almost sense/think that the speeding up of the hemisphere in the means is presenting specific challenges to that particular model ... It's sort of like the arena is changing on it and it's 4-D corrective algorithm genius is getting out-moded ... But that's obviously intensely speculative - ha! Anyway, the GFS really almost has no phase even though we are but 90 hours from supposed max impact by the zesty Euro/NAM/GGEM blend...which show substantially more. The GFS's unwillingness really materialized the moment all the models gave up on the latter system for the 7th/8th/9th of December in lieu of this one for the 5th/6th ... The previous GFS solution interestingly showed more phasing ..but when this came back into scope, it's just not getting on board. I'm willing throw myself under the bus and wager that the GFS is less correct in this case. Tho all models have their annoying little gem biases ... the GFS has a speed bias ( in a fast hemisphere as it is, which hides its bias ironically ...) and thus, I don't think it is handling the delicate speed handling in the phasing harmonics of the N and S stream wave mechanics. Some pricey words to describe that it's not really the right model to spearhead this storm's project - ha. That said, we'll still be nailing down particulars with timing and track... but for now, I'm inclined to strong coastal/ near by cyclogen that may approach bombogenesis...and I also think going from a relative warm column to a deeply imploding mid tropospheric height core as this thing's thermodynamic processing is passing through... sends some interesting convection signals... Supposing a Euro solution verifies, we probably have this sort of thing to contend with from NE CT to southern Maine, "...Forecasting such convective snow events is made even more difficult by the meso-β scale banding (with halfwidths of approximately 100 km) that is usually observed in these events. Moore & Blakely (1988), Weismuller & Zubrick (1998), Nicosia & Grumm (1999), and Martin (1998a, 1998b) have all presented case studies in which meso-β bands of heavy snowfall fell in regions of otherwise light to moderate snowfall, likely in the presence of either potential instability (PI), conditional symmetric instability (CSI), or weak conditional symmetric stability (CSS). PI is a state of the atmosphere where a lifted layer achieves a statically unstable lapse rate, resulting in upright convection....." C/o https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1017/S1350482703003074 Very important caveat emptor: If the GFS solution is right, ...none of this will happen

Looks like we three threads now... The December monthly discussion focus - The storm specific thread now 84 or so hours - The Best Buy nerd squad thread where one would rather have a spalling bullet molecularly transported into their brain box -

Here ... 'nother words, read this paragraph: "Forecasting such convective snow events is made even more difficult by the meso-β scale banding (with halfwidths of approximately 100 km) that is usually observed in these events. Moore & Blakely (1988), Weismuller & Zubrick (1998), Nicosia & Grumm (1999), and Martin (1998a, 1998b) have all presented case studies in which meso-β bands of heavy snowfall fell in regions of otherwise light to moderate snowfall, likely in the presence of either potential instability (PI), conditional symmetric instability (CSI), or weak conditional symmetric stability (CSS). PI is a state of the atmosphere where a lifted layer achieves a statically unstable lapse rate, resulting in upright convection." it = the Euro run at 12z from about Willamantic CT to Bangor ME

In deference to the Euro run..... Yeeeeeah ... unfortunately, at risk of bundamentalism ... I don't think that can happen at 2-5" of snow relative to what that particular guidance shows... nope. That needs a correction. Negative tilted --> closure, and then shedding 12+ DAM of core heights as it is bundling up and passing over head pretty much can't happen without thundersnow and rates consistent with... If we get into a CSI/convective rangle ... no "snow map" is gonna narrow that down. You'll end up with 4 to 6" per hour rates somewhere that doesn't deserve like Kevin... Even at 9::1 blue snow, you'll choke the vis down to 1/16th of mile with blue flashes flaring through window panes followed by rattling rafters. Sorry for the rhetoric but that is excessive instability signal there.

You know ...there may be a fascinating story-line evolving with this particular "winter" storm - ... Usually, it comes down to storm track as to whether x or a location gets it, and what ... This? We may nail down the track guidance surprisingly well ...and still have to now-cast our way through ( specifically ...) whether dynamics succeed in flipping over to snow, and that's a damn peculiar and uneasy metric to have to rely on the model accuracy for I'll tell ya - ... I mean, we've seen supposed paltry ( modeled ) systems go over the parachutes at 38... We've seen CCB heads "unjustly" stay cat paws while level 3 green rad slabs away midst 35 F I can't recall ..I think it was five years ago 6 years ago Feb 2014 ...but there was a coastal with the Euro had a nice CCB head at 33 F and it stayed rain - in fact I think it busted the model by doing so... Anyway, this may end up a unique metrical challenge for NWS Box if they have to decide on Adv/warn or nill based more solely on thermodynamic accuracy

blue bomb incarnate ....

so now the Euro's a fantastic model all 's and everything -

The CPC does show a concerted curve collapse toward week two, so the PNA's positive run may not be a permanent deal... The operational runs going back 6 or so cycles began burgeoning that eastern ridge thing ...but also semblances of keeping that progressive... It appears the oper. is running the amplified version and probably is an outlier considering the concerted members only offer an index fall to neutral if that - in fact, could be construed as modestly positive at that.

As far as snow ?? perhaps - but I wouldn't go so far as to call this a 'non event' for SNE - just talking 'storm' I'm not fully convinced the higher amped/more proficiently phased scenarios are that off-base. As usual...a compromise may be the path of least regret ( at this point in time ... which means negotiable - ), but even in a compromise...we're thrashing wind and inclemency...

for that matter ... the entire GFS run ..right out to D7 is one constant parade of stream/ destructive wave-spacing interference ... sort of ends up with moderate cold ...unrealized PNA otherwise.

Quick assessment ...it's purely phasing proficiency - GFS has less in that regard than every other guidance ... that I've seen - and that includes the non traditional bag guidance types...like the Brazilian - heh... Seriously though... I "think" ( less than certain ) that since the GFS seems to carry on with a speed/velocity issue most of the time, that model inherently favors destructive interference more so than the constructive side ? It's like it's "synergy" packaging is always blowing stream interaction asunder and ending up with inharmonics there in... In this case, you can see the SE Canadia N/stream is just simply evacuating E and leaving the S/stream cannon ball sitting in cafe' stood up, wondering what he done wrong to turn her desire away...

I think we may be seeing the initial stages of consensus gathering that probably takes this thing between the Sagamore Bridge and ACK ...up toward the outer Harbor... sumpin' like ghat - I bet it does slow once it's abeam of oh...PSM ... right around that latitude ... maybe not a stall but tends to do so for 6 or so hour. If there does result some additional feedbacks from wholescale dynamics that the models are not fully resolving - like Will intimated - it may go ahead and do so ... If/when, the CCB head probably pastes interior ... how much how little? But I like Will's assessment there ..that the dynamic squeezing out of the latent heat in the column due to intense lift probably brings parachutes ahead of guidance ...maybe compressing the flip line pretty damn tight too -

In Vt ? ! what are you ... 3 years old - LOL

This statement oughta lassou some enthusiasts... ...as far as I'm aware, the NAM has a NW bias - particularly beyond 36 hours ... - with western Atlantic/near-by coastal cyclogenesis scenarios. Assuming it's even right about the rapid deepening to and likely beneath 980ness of this thing going by Boston Light/Logan like that... a notion more up the Islands/arm of the Cape fits a plausible correction - Which concomitantly means that it's probably a flipping to a colder profile scenario in the interior eastern CT/NW RI, sooner - To say nothing of the fact that it is entirely f'ing ludicrous to spend this much time on any NAM solution much beyond 30 hours in the first place -

wouldn't be a bad solution for winter enthusiast in later innings *IF* that capture is more proficient, because that's probably a frame away from a slow down or even stall while that wind max curls under. The low does seem to ride across the jet axis ... and ends up on the left entrance/mid stream region of the mlv wind max.. That's what happens during capture scenarios. Here it's going through the motions but the movie ends at 84 hours so don't know what came next - lol ...Anyway, once lows get caught in that region of the trough, they tend to slow down as captures do - . Anyway, pretending for a moment that a slightly more proficient undercutting wind max does in fact take place, the whole column probably flashes to snow as that's typically when the rain snow line does that rapid collapse SE - right when that happens.

Yeah saw that - lol... - It's interesting that this is still so variant < 5 days. I mean ... our expectations should be reasonable - okay... but I don't think 84 to 96 before go time in the era of PITA-FLops and quantum processing, satellite electromagnetic thermal residence detection/fluid momentum transfer sampling .. .that it is really too much to ask for the 06z G F'n S not dumping any event at all. Wow on that... while the ECM is rippin Cat 2 Nor'easter into Worcester... Frankly - the GGEM of all runs seems like a blended path of least regret but - just when we bite... there's always another option magically emerging to screw that up too -