Typhoon Tip

Not to rub it in buuut... na na na-na na There's a reason I've been saying not to buy into the heat for next week. And it played out exactly like that too - the 'circular sander' over ~ NF came right back and ground the heat signal right out of New England right on schedule ... all over agin. This is an unrelenting trend folks. Rinse and repeating one, and I strongly suggest that unless the hemispheric mode switches to something new, it's one that will not go away any time soon... And by that, we could certainly be talking about the whole summer - it's happened before.. Something like this took place in the year 2000 ... a season with surplus cool misty days ... stole every warmth. It particularly annoying for those that are entertained by extremes because the previous winter was a complete cluster - and that's what patience rewarded? Basically 18 straight months of drawn shades. Oh, it got warm for one week in early October as an exit insult... 2007 and 2008 were back to back summers where we had this weakness if not L/W axis parked over 80 W; though it kept temps from getting out of control, it did set us up for daily mid level lapse rates and pulse sever chances. I remember mid early mid July in 2008 I think it was... it was 64/62 just before sunset, after a thundery afternoon had the region into rain cooled air. Yet ... somehow there was enough instability to last a super cell that brought nickle hail along a 30 mil swath up astride I-495.. Point is, sometimes these set ups lock in ruin seasons. The winter of 2012 .. same deal going the other direction. And at times when the excitement starved enthusiasts can't really bear it, that when the models seem to know it's time to faux advertise the longing change ... Only to correct suddenly right back to the same look. I'm not prepared to say this whole summer gets eaten and eroded by the vortex of NF ... but, if so, meh. Oh it'll prolly go on and get hotter 'n holy next week ... as though purposefully to smite this very veracious hot take ... Excluding the possibility that there are indeed outre forces at work, I wouldn't be shocked if not only does the heat fail next week, but we comically end up with a couple of those days at 68 instead of the 88 GFSX MOS was selling up through 00z.

GFSX MOS is 8+ on climo Mon-Tue-Wed at most interior sites from NYC to PWM fwiw - that's a significant departure at this range in a climate normalized product so the signal may be pretty bright. Synoptic charts don't seem as robust tho hm I'm hesitant ... mainly because seasonal trend has been down right creative in finding ways to dim these longer lead machine guidance numbers. I've seen upper 80s on D6's more times than I can count and judging by how many upper 80s we've put in the books says something about the success rate there... It's no mystery why that's failing as we've hammered numerous times... We'll see... But I haven't seen any compelling reason why the great rasper sitting over the lower maritimes won't just circular sander those numbers downward for the umpteenth time. I was just noticing the downslope dandy for Saturday and Sunday on GFS operational charts though ... Something in the nearer term to start looking forward too - putting together an impressive string of weekends were at least one of, if not both days were toppers.

Haha lol the atmosphere has a festering case of it between 70W and 50W by roughly 40N to 60N

This persistency appears slated to an 'asymptotic' termination ( to me ) ... It could break the other way toward more longitudinal flow construct and expanded subtropical ridging sending dragon farts across the continent - nothing's impossible in this business ..in fact, stochastic. However, I would really keep the slow pattern death idea in mind/consider it... The models tending to re-gather the Maritime 'rasp' configuration is plausible ... yup. You bet! But let's not over sell it, either. Scott or whomever that was is right... it's still warm, at least "er" ... The look over the next two weeks may also allow brief hotter pulses that break away from the midwest and rumble through with thunder... lot's of summery possibilities there. And yes, cool misty day in between. On the flip side ... not sure why there is this other idea that it's suddenly going very hot this year? It may ... sure. but I also don't see any particular reason why big numbers have to become common place .... particularly when noting the first statement, that all indications and acknowledgement of tenors in both verification and modeling, to date, all really do suggest this terminates very gradually ... Which means at times, cool offsets that of course interfere with any kind of heat persistence. The gradual decline is also showing up in the models ... with the 'frequency' of Maritime changes increasing ... just yet to truly realize. I kind of like the idea of hot August ... Just in deference to that 'slow termination' scheme... seems a good round -about estimation. If you want big numbers and records and all that...July would be better. But ...meh, there's been plenty of 102's in August. There really seems to be some sort of emergence for the greater globular interplay of physical processes with that thing. It is behaving more like a nodal depression results there - think default. Looking at the recent D7 + ranged Euro depictions in the domain between roughly 100W and southern Greenland.. we have to remember the layouts are stereographic projection... That trough is actually reaching W across the NW Atlantic Basin. It seems to be almost absorbing any wave spaces that attempt to disrupt it. .. It's kind of like dealing with a athlete's foot... You use lotion and treat it and it seems to have gone away... but if you don't keep treating it, it comes back. You have to wait two weeks of bombarding treatment even after the symptoms have alleviated and there's no trace, or it will well right back up again. That's what this weird lower Maritime thing seems to be... It just comes back ..but something about the larger scaled hemispheric operation is defaulting that region. interesting -

Everyone can relax and breath again ... Trump formally announced he's running for 2020 ..

hot 18z GFS at 500 mb from D7 way on out there yeah so the GFSX MOS was pumpin' 86 to 91 highs from Sunday through the middle of next week. That's some 6 to 11 over climo for D4+ Not bad... maybe the Euro has legs? time will tell...

I don't trust that Euro... Yeah...it's liable to turn warmer here at some point or the other ...over the next month but the models et al have been demonstrating marked continuity issues. The GEFs teleconnectors have been shifting warm and cold about every three or four days, and the operational version ( GFS ) is always got a complexion opposite compared to whatever they are showing to murk it up even more ... making the entire American cluster almost unusable in my estimation. Meanwhile, the Euro is diving a -2 SD vortex into the GB and refusing to raise eastern N/A heights ... Like, how is that possible ... enough already... It's like we're in summer suffering from spring time model instability - I guess in some sense it's more progressive with the lower Maritime vortex finally ... so that's sort of physically more appealing ... but it's still not enough and now it has a 582 dm ridge N over Greenland so it's moving the vortex out now that it has the block that should anchor it - everything's opposite.

The last two weeks have had 9 days that objectively should be rated in the top 10 - what's the f'n problem I suppose what it really boils down to is people. Everyone in here ( most likely ..) is highly responsive to some varying forms of S.A.D. relative to their personal preference - they let sensible weather get to them if it ain't jivin' with the way they wanna role. Guess I'm preachin' to the quire - But I haven't personally experienced anything that out of the ordinary this spring. I could objectively and empirically say we had near or at historic cloud contamination days in May but ... heh, for me, that's almost hitting par in this anus geography on Earth that is spring. Sunny in April and May? Get f'n real - how long have y'all lived here. wow. I dunno... but if it's 81 and sun, at 49 DP like yesterday and then rains the next day, then goes back to 81/51 or whatever ... that's perfect ratio of watering verdant landscape then bathing it with needed sun... If you want' 90+ weather here... you're expecations are not sound. You may get it.. sure. But, no one sane on the planet that has existential wisdom about New England has the temperature 90 F leap to mind.

I don't know ... this doesn't look un-wet for SNE https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php maybe it dries up before getting here...we'll see

Plus I've noticed a tendency when dealing with the lay - hoi polloi and general enthusiasts and hobbyest, and even some Mets... to kind of get giddy about colors on these granular products. Blue in that context does not mean cold - not that you think so... just in general, that needs to be reminded. Like someone posted the other day, some D6-14 WPC temperature anomaly product with orange and brown positive departures as a trophy foisting for the onset of summer heat ... wrong... duh. F'n thing is only saying a 30 % chance of above normal... that's not anything really... I don't, red is warm - woooo! Those blues out there ? 0 C anomaly is hot ocean. Plus, if that's a running average/adjusted climo comparison, that's hotter at 0C than it was 50 years ago at 0C ... So blue ballz all we want...that's a oceanic basin that is in general neutral positive. I guess it's negative more meaningfully N of the g-string east of New England ...

I guess it does sort of work it's way out toward a solution that looks more physically plausible ... way out there around D 9 ...10 in the EPS but as others have already noted, that's not been very capable of lasting toward any frames < circa 7 days out. By the way, 50 N and the D6 operational Euro has snow levels down to 2,000 feet over the lower Maritimes with a two-stream subsume phased solution that would make many February's blush... That's bombogen there.. as in < 12 mb in 18 hours. While people continue to die in droves in India and Iraq from historic heat no less. Really quite remarkable.

It's rare to see a -2 or even -3 SD L/W axis/quasi-closed vortex carve toward the Great Basin out west and actually ....fail to raise OV heights. They try to rise, but some kind of -NAO domain exertion is anchoring lower heights into the lower Maritimes ...and that is rasping off/acting as though to 'absorb' heights as they try to build NE. I say "some kind" because this is persisting in the absence of much identifiable over-arcing ridge/blocking more typical of -NAO at higher latitudes. The rising NAO in the GEFs is all but totally abandoned at this point ...yet there are still only vague ridging signals among the members. It would appear that weird permanent vortex over NF is drawing the NAO down for it's own virtue. interesting. It's been going on all spring, too ... but across this particular set of mid and extended range charts ( unilaterally ) as of late, they are really honing the effect and making it more coherently defined, where heights fall out west.. and stay fallen out east. . And it's an atypical behavior and design.

What do you get when you super-impose a Maunder Minimum over a Globally warmed atmosphere ?

NAM FRH grid doesn't have much QPF at all at BOS, LGA, ALB triangulum and synoptically only has local downpours associated with warm frontalysis limping through anyway... The NAM is actually not a bad model at < 30 hours with convective initialization. It's not impossible that modest elevated instability slips in-between the grids and busts someone ...who of course then comes in here to explain why the model's wrong to everyone -

For heat enthusiasts... that D7 just rubs it in ... ha. Could be a 101 at Detroit and 58 at Boston when the wind tips on shore with that unrelenting "parameterized" vortex out there. It's like the initialization physical grid of the models have the Earth's immovable geological topographic features + that vortex

Mm hm

Bit of an "intuitive no-brainer" really ... I mean it's always good to corroborate common-sense based supposition with empirical evidence, ... but liquid water has more energy per unit volume compared to free air - liquid on ice is a more effective delivery of energy to the ice than would be the ice-conditioned air/environment immediately in contact in the glacial basal regions. This is like after-school Mr Wizard's fun physical sciences for 4th grader material.... I know, but that conceptually can be blown up to the scale of these magnificent systems - physical rules don't change just because a Greenland's ice is awesome. not that you think so... just sayn'

Anyone along and N of this line is polishing a turd to call this season summer ( so far .. ) What's happened so far is winter with June sun shining through it ...

Lol

This is why ... or some variation of it https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;ved=2ahUKEwi037iHs-riAhVlTd8KHf9YA4kQzPwBegQIARAC&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.psychologytoday.com%2Fus%2Fblog%2Fbrain-babble%2F201501%2Freverse-seasonal-affective-disorder-sad-in-the-summer&amp;psig=AOvVaw08i_qdf1MiauJq-a_kS-7t&amp;ust=1560650703025889 ... and at times Im stressed not to believe the crucible of time hasnt concentrated the population of this particular social media to be more likely of that ilk than that article's purported 10%

You mean like this ... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html ...course, it is CNN -

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html

ever since the FV3' came on line as the GFS ... we've been heading toward a new ice age... ha!

We're in wait for the other shoe to fall... ( I get the feeling) Frankly, this entire GFS solution is suspect - it seems to not conform at all when extending a quasi-zonal flow over extended time ranges. Namely... ridging tends to evolve when post zonal flows. This isn't just statistics; it's based upon physical equations and why zonal flow --> ridging. Having said that... it's possible that what we are really looking at is coincidence more so than failure - so to speak. There could be some systemic/larger synoptic factors that are suppressing any attempt to grow an eastern ridge as a sort of perpetual offset...? The result is a zonal look but ...looks can be deceiving - it's more like rasping the heights off. It wouldn't actually be difficult to assess what those are, either. For one, the 'inside slider' ( btw, that's a back-office expression for troughs that descend south inland through California out west... ) on previous runs is all but suddenly not there this run. Basic wave-length arguments gives the model an excuse not to raise heights as much in the east. Two, this weird Maritime trough persistence that all models, including the GGEM and Euro are also maintaining, despite the overall +NAO modality. Should not be there - not at this time of year. You don't sustain +NAO troughs that by virtue of usual girth and massiveness extend all the way back down into NE in June. That requires steep gradient and fast flow to stretch the L/W lengths sufficiently ( think winter 1993-1994). In this case...that is diametrical to raising heights over the eastern seaboard. Which as far as this whole handling goes... ( and I realize you just couldn't wait for me to right all this tedium ) I'm not sure the models really have this right.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/file/us-warmest-day-year-mapjpg