Typhoon Tip

I still think it’s worth it, Will, to evaluate the domain spaces of that, and compared it to those other meso models; because really that smacks to me as though the other models are not feeling the weight or pushback from the wave compression off the NAO ‘slowing’/’blocking

At the core of it all is an unhealthy emotionally charged/guided decision circuitry ... Its a devotion to this engagement - I’ll give you that much LOL

The fact that nobody “hedged” bets on the lower cycle solution for QPF amounts ....is the attitude

In most settings sure but this is a unique one… And the euro like I said if you go back a ways ( probably missed the post) has been showing poor continuity just the same as the others ...having said all that I think you’re right ... more likely be correct, but I wasn’t really specifically addressing that likelihood ... I was talking about the attitude - whatever model has the biggest impact is the one that people start defending.

Does the NAM’s domain space actually include the NAO…? I think it might overlap a little bit of the western limb - not abundantly sure frankly but I think it actually truncates. It’s just a hypothesis I’m wondering if maybe the meso models are just not seeing the full exertion from downstream or the full manifold of the wave length compression

It’s the attitude. Wantonly trying to justify 3 inches of QPF in lieu of the model that says .01 is not the right attitude. And it shows a bias. That bias leads to the grousing and bullshit that goes on after these things failing/ when they do I’m sorry it does - long years of experience ...

Say what you guys want it sounds like rationalizing and spinning and justifying reasons to go with 3” over .01” Having provided zero substantive analysis as to why the 01 could possibly be true but you cannot say for certain that it’s not - look I’m just trying to protect you’z guises emotional states when this doesn’t happen or something stupid like that and you start throwing hands and acting all pissy ... blaming this that and the other thing hey it’s your life

Welll ... in principle the Euro is demonstrating questionable continuity; whether its wobbles are better for the cinema interest or not ... it’s still shaky continuity. That ICON model trended west by a goodly amount in the 18z run .. I mean they’re all still doing that I have not seen a single guidance type really show the same for very long

I guess I must have a differing opinion about the last 24 hours of guidance blend, re the larger/super synoptic hemisphere than y'all - it's all good.. But I see a tendency here to fug -around with the blocking ( AO and NAO correct up entering the 2nd week), while the mid latitude flow is speeding up the dailies/operational versions -anew- between Hawai'i and California... That's all code for the previous p.o.s. speed pattern I realize the snow storm a couple weeks ago in Dec was actually in that faster regime - so that also points out factually that it's not a death sentence to winter necessarily either. That said, I don't find the fast atmospheric paradigm as being inherently favoring the type of stuff the cinema weather charter is seeking in this particular social media...that's all.

Heh... I dunno - I never like it when products cookie-cutter around the land masses like that. We'll see but that appeals as though the model physics are over sensitive to the BL variance between the ocean and land ...and is augmenting at the interface. Not the same thing even as a CF ... "Maybe" more like fluidity deformation because air over land moves slower than the over water, so the BL ends up slightly taller and acts like a oreographic lift/axis... speculation, but I see that kind of thing from sensitive hyper discrete models too often. I suppose it could happen -

I don't know if that's entirely true ... you're making an assumption that groups people together, without knowing them ... My biggest problem is that I go to fast, and leave out prepositions here, or type words like 'now' when I meant 'not' ... or, jump to the next sentence before finishing... throwing off the reader. I then have to run back along text and fix shit all the damn time - those cause distractions that don't lend to reading so, ... oh well Keep in mind, also - I'm trying for discussion and opinion sharing among other Meteorologists - they know that sort of 'vernacular' just fine.

oh ... talk about a dyslexic break - the word is 'isohypsic' Wasn't aware I was typing it that other way... Oops sorry. But, ...lol, my guess is that word also doesn't mean much to people.

Lol... know what? I'm already f'n sick of that damn thing - ...

oh god...what did I say - look man ... I was doin' other shit today and thought oh yeah... Open web --> wish I did not open up the web. I don't think I'm making anything up when looking at this shit - sucks asshole for storm/winter drama seekers. I think what happens is ...the tenor over does it in either direction as part of crowd physics. It's human... don't sweat it. But, the fervor does tend to out pace the indicators, where as I tend to ignore that sort of thing. It's just in my nature ...so, it may seem like I'm 'trying' to compensate for a mood or something, but I'm pretty much consistently being honest as much as I can.. If it fits the tenor of the hour, it fits... if it doesn't ... oops

Not a good look for Jan 8-12th either... Two days ago I admit I saw some alarming signals in there for either a top tier potential ... maybe an aggregated series but wow! The 240 hour Euro and GFS ... eradicate the NAO... and show signs of speeding the flow back up again. Interestingly ... the CPC tele's sort of relfect that ... with AO/NAO recoveries going on out toward the end. Better hope the Pac reorients or heh - doesn't mean winter's over... no, just that said "alarming signals" .... are no longer there. hahaha... Maybe we'll see them come back... maybe this opens the door to a whole new paradigm of delivery ... I can make one prediction that is above the 90th percentile accurate ... if this two-step head game goes on ... I predict I am going to start fantasizing for not only another 80 F week in mid February ...this time, I want the NAO to go f- itself in March. Leaves us the hell alone. That way we can just commit to an early spring/warm season and finally cash-in on GW in a meaningful way around here... lol

Well.. ( ha ) it's not totally over ... I mean, we still have to actually get thru January 4 ...so we'll see - It's just the 'vicissitudes' - 'nother fun word - of the last 24 hours that are unfortunate of the models, seems like those could be related to this thing just being weak and not having enough power to situate itself in space and time. More I think about it... we really have been seeing things get corrected weaker passing from late mid ranges into nearer terms, and it sort of fits this... The earlier runs had more impact ... the system corrects subtly weaker inside of 72 hours...out she goes.

Well ... I'm not going to sugarcoat it, or try to spin it or rationalize it, the last 24 hours of runs are frustrating for winter drama/storm enthusiasts ( ...which is really more like 'model cinema enthusiasts' .. ) I'm sort of kicking myself for not bringing this up two days ago - kind of obvious... I think I might have mentioned it (certainly thought about it) but I just didn't bother to emphasize the aspect. We're lacking isohypsic gradient ... when for 10 years, we had way too much of it! ..Ironically, but these 500 mb charted features are just not deep enough. They are shallow by January climatology. You're talking closed or quasi closed(ing) features that are 540+ DM dz ... I've seen June troughs that deep wooo! That's indicative of a mild 500 mb (relative to both season and what's going on around them).. The 500 mb wind velocities reflect that, circuitously wending around said features on the order of 50 .. 80 kts. Just a month ago, the ambient was almost twice that! Forget the S/W... Anyway, these S/W and features are lacking mechanical power. See, re this 1/4 system in the foreground ...it's not helping its track positions.. You get a torsional feedback that resists its 'drift momentum' from more strength, because deeper anchors sooner. This thing is paltry ...it's closing one isohypses... and the associated sfc low is a terrifying 996 mbs...so yeah.. it's drifting out. The other aspect is just giga motions associated with the NAO handling in the models. Nuances in the total structure of the NAO as it blossoms its block over the western limb is a bit shaky in the last 24 hours. The GFS runs are hem-hawing and trying to make it a S based NAO ... not sure that has the same "slowing" kinematic influence on this 1/4 thing. The Euro still has it more D. Str. however ..and yet it still sends this thing east into taunt distances.. I think really we could benefit from a stronger input to help anchor this sooner. That was more suggestive four days ago ... but, since... You know, we've been consummately correcting late mid range systems less amplified as they near in time - maybe remember that.

Late to the pahty this day ...but, mm .. .I didn't really ever see this as having "ferocious CCB" - maybe you're just being expressive. I'll get caught up - ... but firstly, all models sucked donkey D since 12z yesterday ... just about as good of a red flag as anything you yourself were opining a couple days ago. .. Secondly, I've thought all along that this was a like a 1/3 to 3/8ths percentile low by our cyclone climate standards ... but what it did bring to the table as its 'special talent' was that it has higher impact snow type. You know.. .lay down 8" of 9::1 over a large area ...that's bit of a hassle. Plus, the duration was also a wild card. Both appear in jeopardy of fading E as I am sure the next 5 pages of this thread will probably evince LOL

Different time interval ... I'm speaking specifically to the 60 + frames -

NAM notoriously situates NW -biased beyond 60 hours ... we go thru this every time... and everytime it does this, people do this bi polar schismatic break into euphoria - do so at own risk

Middling climo cyclone; higher impact snow because of wet heavy nature; duration augmenting - nothing's changed -

I also would like to paraphrase/re-iterate: for now 33 to 44th percentile cyclone relative to New England storm climatology. However, its impact modulated perhaps more so by snow type, and duration. That's the overall look of this. We could snow 9" of blue bomb snow, and that's a siggy problem, and then if it protracts over more intervals for another bit it's ... It's sort of over-achieving in that sense.

Well... mind you, I'm speaking in deference to that solution - I suspect you are too but the reader may think that's the call ... Not ready to sign off on this outlier antic by the Euro ... It could be right. It's got some variance circumstance that offers more reasons than usual to doubt. Not to be a hypocrite: I have averred in the past that the Euro is not that bad inside of D4.5 and it should be factored more so than not. *However, this situation is a bit unique for the fact that -NAO and really ...entire hemispheric scope is 'uncharted model performance' territory - even for the Euro.. NAOs are notoriously fickle beasts ...

If it does that folks it won't 'back in' heavy snow ... that clown chart - whack that down by 60 some percent, easily - The NAO is blocking and sending that back SW: when that does that? It's always as a core wrapped occluded shredded wind whipped wet flurries, ... "fake" low visibility drizzle.. hot cocoa event. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that look eventually morphed into one of those warm fronts pushing SW through the lower Maritimes... 38 F in the "warm sector" and 31 in Maine - I'm not sure if the Euro is believable, but that's just a large and largely forgettable trough aggregate/latent heat dumpster trough out there - ...the Euro seems to be buckin for a non-corrective emergence of a REX structure between the over-arcing -NAO, and that unusually large, stable SPV it creates underneath. And by 'non-corrective', I mean, ...it gets to that structure without circuiting the atmosphere there a baroclinic gradient/restoring event... Code for, no storm ...or not much of one...And that shindig up there in D.E.M. is an exaggerate WAA pulse - as said .. - wrapping around the N wall of the total trough space... See that early April more frequently actually... interesting. Not sure what to make of all that. Major coup ? If not, it is - fairly I think ..- inside the time range where it would be justly designated a bust; considering it's verification scoring and the whole 4 day thing. Fwiw or not ... I feel this Hemisphere we're destined to see set up ...has been sent through the modeling mill very often over the last 10 years - mid winter negative NAO's have been in a short premium if at all. We've seen them more frequently bookended the cold season ... March -May when of course the humanity side of this endeavor is getting crushed and uninspired by it. Different thing... Anyway, this is a mid winter proper -NAO and I wonder if it is worth it to keep an open mind to the notion of increased error from every model source there is..

Yeah the complexity of this cannot be underscored with enough bleeding Sharpie fumes... No model - much to the chagrin of the validation efforts ... LOL - can really be hugely relied upon by rational convention/approach... to put it nicely. Subtle nuances in the the NAO orienation and amplitude ( blocking regime...) ... good luck. And when you are talking a trillion trillion tons of atmosphere in relative motion wrt to the rest of the Terran atmosphere, a 'giga' motion means the end of the world for an ant hill ... In this metaphor, the ant hill is model performance and depictions therein.. Fun stuff... I personally think the Euro is fiddling with the NAO's ballast ( geographically..) as such, which in present nuanced form is allowing it to conserve more progressive character to the flow upon this thing's departure... I also think that it's correction scheme is 'trying' maybe to dip every Pac wave too aggressively in almost unnoticeable quantities, around 95 W over the mid latitudes of the Continent... In order to do so in physically needs to "lift" the larger synoptic manifold against the wave space we are presently tracking - that's long words for introducing a destructive wave interference ...doing so ( because of this soft unnoticed nature ) in insidious reduction or expense of it's potential. Weak sauce as some are tasting - The other models - geee...they don't run special double-top secret 4-D arrogance schemes that can upon occasion - albeit rarely ... - introduce error. Mind you, this is speculative to a huge degree.. .I don't recall seeing this sort of NAO potential during the last 10 years, a time in which the Euro has migrated to updated versions - I think several times actually - don't quote me. It may be interesting for all guidance actually ...to test how performances play out as this blocking regime ignites. All that aside, I see this system as a middling at best...btw... Probably 33 ...maybe 44th percentile cyclone going by local hemispheric storm climatology ... But, it has a a couple special talents. It's a Linas event - it's just another kid on the block but man, can little fugger play the piano. In this case, it may deliver a higher impact snow "Type" - this won't be the 9" of under-bed dust bunnies snow like we got in that thing a couple weeks back. This could lay down 8" of green clevage snow.. It's also got endurance too - that's another emergent metric' that's hard to qualify - it could surprise, not stop... lasting 30 hours if those giga motions above bump this whole thing into a stalled/later west correction. So, you get some protracted moderate fall rate banded behavior at 9::1 cake ... It's like there are a couple of hidden signals here that could get this thing to over-achieve impact. Of course, that's the way it looks "now"