Typhoon Tip

Same here... it happened right under my nose, too - It was April ...I wanna say 2016, and as typical at that time of year, the region was going through its right of passage climo window for spring detritus fire threat. Three weeks past mud-season .. two weeks before the thrust of green-up. The day was mid 70s over about /10 or some richly deep theta-e content desert like that ... And there I am using one of those backyard ornamental fire pans you get at a parking lot display at a Home Depot to feed the flames with pieces of felt dead timber. The funny part is that I used some lighter fluid to get it going too... I turn around - uh... oh shit moment! I mean, it's a sinuously winding arc of orange, propagating away at a noticeable speed. I have no idea how that started behind my heels like that... Burnout's no option ...nor, what am I going to tamp it out with dried out dead pine bows? - and seeing as I was tOtally responsible in prepping the setting for fire safety before I started... Then there's that small problem of the neighbor's dilapidated, seasonally dried out stock fencing with holes in it... making visible their yellow-beige straw lawn and dead leaf mixture on the other side... So I'm in the house eviscerating the contents of the closet that caps the crawl space, ... banging and chucking vacuum clean parts and cleaners and half-emptied brick dried paint cans... Estimating? I'd 180/110 BP at a 110 pulse rate ... this, trying to access the outside water valve, to turn on the source for the hose, ...that's still coiled up buried in the back of the shed outside while I am doing that, ...with all of last year's tools and lawn implement burriering between the opening of the shed and said hose.. I don't know how in the face of all those obstacles... But, I probably more literally than merely figuratively managed to just get the hose connected and the water on, spraying the - by then - arc of fire that had consumed almost 2/3rds of my dead backyard lawn and contents ...all the way down to black char, terminating it in a steam flash a mere inches from the fencing... I think when the adrenaline wore off I slept for 3 hours on the couch. If I had called the fire department it's like 1500 base-line charge/fine in this town, prior to any accoutrements they get to tack circumstantially on the bill too - I did this in my 40s age ... a Meteorologist ... in mid April ... in 77 F early season warmth, two weeks before green up, in a global warming spring - It's humility like these that ease the coming of acceptance of me, on display in the museum, a shimmering gallery mediocrity in life - and thankful for this much recognition. Christ. What's interesting is that... where ever the fire swept across the lawn ..grew the most delicious emerald green salad of grass I'd ever seen - heh...I was thinking - you know? if one could just figure this out... a spring controlled burn is the best way to set your lawn up for prize entry - ...nah, better not.

Best time of the year and antecedent circumstances huh

18z ... GFS finally admits Gamma exists - indeed the PWAT transport’s in there. also ... nice Sultan look in the deep field

There’s a chance Gamma sends a pwat plume up the EC or thereabouts -stay tuned on that.

the operational model types keep trying to suppress the Pac jet like El Nino into the west coast... It's bullshit and they're routinely having to pull it back N but that's interesting -

Know what'd be funny ... we get like no autumnal coastal/attributed rains... then, cold brick the earth and cap frozen and dry and throw down 6' of snow on top in the biggest winter ever - this to make sure everyone is absolutely wrong -

Yeah ... separating the -AO from the +AO ... as being rooted in what cause is a whole 'nother popsicle headache - good luck! But I also like where you are going there, because a -AO base-line tussling with HC would quite reasonably cause a different "synergistic" hemisphere ...having those opposing aspects in tandem. I don't know how to visualize that resolution. The +AO is easy ... It's a contraction N of the westerlies/Polar Jet as we know... and that's sort of like giving the HC "carte blanche" - you know? So we wash in bathing progressivity and sheared out busted R-waves that can't situate ...and you know the drill... Anyone want to argue that's NOT what we've eaten the last half-ten ? If so, never log in again - But jokes aside, the HC isn't going anywhere - most likely... Most papers, sciences and scholars are leaning heavily toward it's anchoring in GW ... so - But... the +AO affliction is making the GW seem like whole numbers instead of decimals - which it still is. When they flash headlines designed to jolt awareness ( ahem...) that X month was the warmest ever ...they mean it was .01 warmer than the last 'oh-my-god-we're-all-gonna-die' month ... I mean it's not good that we are adding decimals ...no.. But, it's like Venus comes tomorrow. ...or even in 50 years... although ... things could be sensibly different by then if the "acceleration" shit continues ... Logarithmic change is a little harry out to 5 decades... Anyway, I'm not really sure about the +AO longevity ...it doens't fit the solar min curve...Last year was not right ... and it's persistence was also ... doubling down on that 'not righteousness' ha-ha. Seriously... I don't blame the QBO when the QBO was weak and there are plenty of -AO at similar QBO in the past... so, ... the MJO's were also biased on 3-6 phases, which is consistent with the +AO correlation - it worries me that the whole hemisphere was butt-fing winter ...from the Eq to the Pol and this is unrelenting... I am not sure that HC ... I don't see how - but it does seem to be a constructive interference that is making the HC very demonstrative ... making huge mid lat wind budgets -

Yeah I think this is the intellectual/ course of least regret in using the PDO metric frankly ... and by the way, check this but I think the multi-decadal curve is arguing -PDO/-AMO through 2030 .. So if it is positive - I have two thoughts on that... The first is, it may be a lie... Why? Because we are also now toting along this multi-decade warm basin signal. I think if you look at the last 200 some- months worth of anomalies products at NASA... 78% of the Basin has been in a positive anomaly 78% of the months or something ... ( making that up but it's been warm biased). *AND* that is now overlapping the -PDO according to the multi-decadal oscillatory curve that was constructed based upon reanalysis from 200 years ago .. that become more empirical mid century onwards.. Blah blah.. .point is - and I'm sorry if this chaps asses and/or rolls eyes but the fact of the matter is - global warming is f'ing this whole conversation up before we even have it.. Jesus Christ. But, suppose for a moment GW doesn't matter ( yeah right - ) ... the PDO/AMO move together, and both move with a very high correlation to the solar cycle. So it is an interesting diametric signal there... we have a multi-decade in situ warm anomaly - regardless of GW or not ...it's there - "fighting" the -PDO ...which by the way, should be a whopper given to the superposition theory and the deep solar min ... I keep coming back the same thing .. the primary force in the scaling of equations is the HC expansion and the polar field/Ferrel Cell interface velocity in the gradient saturation as overwhelming things. That's putting the previous modes that were better correlations more on the back burner - note, that is not saying they don't influence. Seems there is a tendency to read shit and think it's absolute stink and that's not the point here - but, we live on a dynamical world - and dynamics actually translates directly to "change" as per definition... Sometimes the turds of change just have to be seen or we risk drinking the cool-aide

The PDO - as I read back in the 1990s ... - is often prone to ephemeral looks because of sea-surface wind stressing. Which makes sense, considering the PDO's domain space is pretty much overridden by the wildest, windiest tropospheric realm on the planet, ... pushing water plumes around and upwelling this and loading warm into shallows that. It's like one of those thumb-slide puzzles. Such that given to how deep the surface layering is (warm)(cool), either can be disintegrated instra seasonal and if significant enough, on scales of mere weeks at that. That lends to me questioning the usefulness of assessing the PDO in any given July through early October time frame, if one is to assess how it may look/be somehow correlative in ensuing winter. I wonder if anyone has ever took the scalar PDO of August and compared it January's ? Like -1 August = ? January in the "tendencies" - I bet the correlation is more noisy than we think... while biases the decadal signal... Such that if we are in the positive(negative) modes ... Jan tends to reflect the decadal signal, and August's throw out the variability. Thing is... momentum left over from spring may be mashed up with solar modulated summers, at a time of the year when/where said stressing is not as mechanical adding to the deception ... and that can falsely reduce(elevate) negative(positive) PDO's which ... btw, the "D" in P - D - O stands for "Decadal" for a reason... It doesn't mean "Dailies" ... such that a Aleutian bomb may neg the shit out of the domain up there ...but not really consistent with the longer term's vastly more correlatable decadal lags. Such that there's a couple faux negatives in Sept... a bomb in mid October that upwells, and everyone forecast a winter -PDO correlation that doesn't mean anything because the circuitry is all positive by Thanks Giving and stays that way until March. Just attempting to some healthy skepticism here -

speed/shearing is already observable ... Look at this flat baroclinic wave induced leaf on satellite - f'n haulin' absolute ass ...

Ha ... I wonder how much that is being pulled/weighted by the last 10 of that 30 years... Basically, wouldn't mind seeing that in 5 year intervals to gather an idea on trend.

You know... perhaps that is related to why the Atlantic Hurricane season ( thus far...but inevitably will end this way ...) suffered odd-ball MDR truncation of TC genesis due to easterly shear anomalies... In that sense ...and strengthened HC is driving unusually strong easterly trades due to it's growing mechanical influence on the global eddy - ... in other words, an SST modulation and sea-surface stress factor causing that...and may be mimicking a La Nina more so than a real La Nina. Maybe this is all backing us into a nice hypothesis for what the ENSO variance - it's always just been a kind of oscillatory HC ebb and tide in that particular atmospheric mode. When it is storng... easterlies tend to increase and that moves warm air west across the basin... and vice versa - ... heh.

LOL, why did you assume I was talking about Kevin Now THAT is funny. But... I was... hahaha... Oh well, they all do it ... this is an attention seeking thing for them.

When are you guys gonna figure out that it's all an act - and has been.... for years. You placate his entertainment ...as he gaslights people with absurdities so that he can recoup all the attention getting. Oh it's all in fun and good natured ...we hope - otherwise he's a sociopath, or just plumb dumber than a single-toothed hillbilly -

Hopefully no one ever did that - ...no, I've averred often in the past and over years that there are no 1::1 correlations in these teleconnectors: Earth, Air or Sea... certainly not in how they interact and cause synergistic outcomes. Having said that, that's not so one can go, "phew, I can still be ENSO reliant" - it would be unwise to weight the 300 year span of ENSO vs the climate impact model of the present era and going forward. How much so? That's your art - not mine. There were papers written about the recent warm ENSO events failing to materialize along expected climate impact routes... (they're out there in edu repositories - ) This isn't just my theoretical ranting - I am trying to bring this to general audience attention and have been supplying links - but... you know how that goes ..old habits - anytime there are abruptly dissenting points of views, the tribe knee-jerks in incredulity if not vitriolic stake-burning. Lol.. But, this is more like the internet causing bubble interpretations that are self-re-enforcing, where the agencies that own the information closer to the reality ...are often left on a metaphoric island while the party boat of faux ideology and those that act upon those doctrines ...sails away toward an enabling horizon where Trump demagoguery is somehow construed as a proactive vision for Humanity.... Just kidding - No, but ...as usual, the reality is a matter of fluid scales and degrees of mitigation - that's how this works. The ENSOs are "being" muted - they are not "muted" Sometimes it is seemingly absolute ( though would not be...); sometimes the limitation being observed appears to not be in play at all ( but it still is...). Everything is being subsumed or supplanted to some amount ...but above and below thresholds of observability. It's this simple: If the HC expands too far beyond the ENSO warm(cool) band, that weakens the ENSO as a "direct" trigger ... It probably becomes more "indirect" in that sense... the triggering gradient zone shifts polarward and the ENSO is part of the HC integration ... But, that offers all kinds of f-up crazy shit like sped up flow ( ding ding ding ...!) and arc PAC jets that tumble over and create unusually high frequency of -EPO ridge pulsations... enhancing cold loading at transition seasons... all this stuff can be mechanically rooted. The thing is... the heart of winter the polar hemisphere bottoms out seasonally and then the gradient and wind saturation becomes dominant as an impetus and ... well - My assertion of the NINA ...was kind of snarky for one. But not having much forcing is based upon a simple notion of arithmetic thinking - if the NINA is less than major, ...or, less than moderate, and in keeping with the above essence ...it should be more lost in the muting effect of the HC's having engulfed it so much so that it can't "trigger" through a direct gradient response ( which IS the circuitry) . I don't have any ego horses in this race and don't give a shit if I am wrong - but...I think this stuff offers a nice ( at least) entry explanation as why NCEP, NASA and Farm Joe's seasonal outlooks since 2000 have all been increasingly stinking pieces of shit... No one has forecasted ground-based airline velocity records and jet speeds so ludicrous as to wonder if the planetary rotation rate night even be getting effected by atmospheric torsional feedbacks! (Sarcasm) ... But what has become routine over the last 10 years... Yet, every autumn the same seasonal logic is gearing expectations .. okay.

I don’t think La Niña is forcing much. patterns may look coincidently like it from time to tine as the ‘unmanned firehouse’ happens to meander ephemerally thru the climate signal but tall N Pac arced jet’s likely to fold over either way from other emerging factors unrelated. The -neg EPOs intervals while ENSO forcing is subsumed and supplanted

That looks like the expanded HC compression base line frankly

I hypothesize that the Euro’s 4-D correction secret sauce doesn’t taste right when it’s mixing it up with global wind acceleration

OH yeah...wasn't that the year that it was like 50 to 70 F every afternoon until mid January ...when finally, the AO tanked on our side of the hemisphere the script flipped... I thought Valentine Storm was 2007 though and we finished stronger - but it may be eclipsed by the specter of the cosmic dildo flogging that occurred in the first half. I don't know.

Tends to happen ( lol ) when transporting -20 C 850 mb air plume over a still swimmable synoptic-scaled lake

Yeah that too - wasn't even thinking of bowling balls - but ... Case in point - does anyone remember that weird early October thunder snow squall event that hit Buffalo like way back there... autumn of 2006 I don't believe the ensuing winter (Will ? ) was particularly good or bad ... I mean that was clearly a rogue event/fluke like Scott just intimated... and was indicative of nothing.

Here's a thought - ... folding hemisphere/synoptics means early (late) cold shots... exciting snow chances at those times of the year - both anomalous for the last 200 years of date ( but perhaps not so for this present/immediate climate era ), but... since the mid winters are getting disrupted by speed saturation and R-wave progressive flows related to that ... it may be systemic to think of snow in October as increasingly likely ... while "organized" stormy and cold stable pattern deliveries as less likely in winters - period. And that those two circumstances are related because of fast atmosphere overall - but that does not mean they are connected by some other physical timing ... We used to debate pattern timing up at UML in Synoptic/FAST ...and we used to grudgingly agree that snow in October might be a poor correlator to mid winter, because of the normal gestation of pattern residence. There's really like three bell-curves there... a 10 day ... 45 day ... 90 day.... Patterns tend to 'click into temporal' cogs like that, before modulating to something new... Now, it can be muddled some by 10 days of pattern that flips... only to flip back ... so, which was it... Relaxations are part of pattern persistence however... and often the pattern's true residence has to be analyzed passe to determine that stuff... Anyway, 1995 was two 45 day long patterns ...interceded by a 10 day relaxation... ( example ) ... That's sort of what we played around with. Snow in October doesn't fit winter in any numerology of the bell-curve of pattern gestation/timing ... 10 days equates to a Rosby roll-out in early November... 45 ... terminates just prior to X mass ...usually in time for a grundle bomb too as though stalking that particular homage ... the 90 day might work, BUT, ...because October is the transition month...seldom can a stable R-wave distribution really be maintained through that inharmonious wave time of the year...making 90 days ( 45 for that matter..) less likely to occur beginning in that month. In effect, October is kind of in no-man's land. But, again...that is based on the traditional data set ...which I think is in the process of being significantly changed due to the last 15 or so year's of behavior and probably going forward in this climate change shit.

All the while negating the morality of deception douchery alone the way -

We just had a shot across the bow low top gusty shower ... A month from now... that'd be light rain --> grapple ticks --> aggregate noodles --> light rain ...back to sun... The sky had the texture. The rain was cold ..brr on shorts legs, going sideways in 30mph gusts. It was a CAA driven instability in other words and we had yet to see that this early autumn ... so it may be more than merely symbolic - But ... mm, it's funny that despite the ensembles the operational models are fighting their own means for mid month. I'm not sure I buy it just yet... The GEFs - fwiw - still signal an early winter like pattern expression. We could almost argue that's so anyway, with 540 dm thickness contour down to the N. Lake and N NE at times prior to this the mid month 'warm up' ... But now we got a canes crawling up the eastern seaboard with 19 c 850 mb thermal plumes ejecting out of the front range of the rockies on top of the GEFs +PNA/-AO(-NOA) hemisphere. Interesting. Could also just be typical transition season growing pains -

I wonder if those correlation arguments or points are reducing in value anyway... If this speed stuff and the folding of the atmosphere at large scale, causing book-end winter expressive patterns that yield to internal seasonal gradient saturated craziness has merit... Those correlations are based on a heredity that may no longer be valid. So, while they may not be entirely moot, their usefulness questionable.