Typhoon Tip

Not that you asked... but the 14th appears slated to steal the show ... it's massive. And may sweep dynamics out post its governing mechanics moving on... It's got a multi teleconnector converging signal on the OV/NE regions ... and has for days and days, but there are limitations to structure. Models have been struggling with the momentum/fast hemisphere ... Their handling is detrimental to the delicate timing involved with harmonic wave interference. We've been seeing a lot of what look more like WAA blown-open lows as a result. Anyway, the 14th (GGEM for example ... or pick a recent GFS run - haven't seen the 12z just yet ) gets it done with a big busted ravioli too ...really more of a split open phase because of the stream bi- pass that resulting from too much fast flow. But it may sweep all dynamics out when it leaves ...and then the 17th may need a pattern change away from N-stream ( 14th ...) to more purer S / stream to get a another system done. There are some hints of a more of a ENSO jet punching E when the SPV's leave southern Canada ...hell, maybe that's an attempt -

This 'critter' is signaled to flash up in intensity as it exits - Am aware some higher res. short lead models vacate on that thinking some, but I'm not sure the non-hydrostatic nature of those physics are really seeing a synoptic ...albeit subtle WAA pulse potential from the integrated flow - those sort of models are better for meso shit. The problem also is that we are presently trying to saturate a 23 F / 15 F -type temp/ dp spread here between the Pike and Rt poop ... and since this has virtually no way/means to remove that slab of arctic density ... we're probably maximizing the WB effects and will have an event temp around 20 de-popsicle headache F, which means ... backyard ratios are probably > even 15:1 ... .3" ends up being close to 6" ...etc..etc.. stack height. I'm sure others have mentioned these event idiosyncrasies - ... but adding to all that, if it flares even a little like some of the QPF products indicate, this thing bootlegs to a warning - ...unfortunately, there is possibility that does not happen - yup. But, this strikes me as a limitation ( sort of ..) with the state of the art of the technology. It's an amazing spectrum of utilities compared to 30 years ago .. but despite any conceits, they still do not offer a line of sight that discretely - or discrete enough. So... it is what it is... and it's two systems back-to-back where they have to gotta kinda issue because they are handcuffed to notifying the public anyway

Me too ...sort of - things is, I don't base this on previous poor spring/warmth repeater years - ... easy to assume based upon recent persistence. Our return rate on "feeling" warm in spring is 1 in 10... actually, maybe 1 in 3... 2/3rds of the time you sail away to foreign soils and forget this god forsaken useless cold anal hole even exists... You guys may love your winters here - but you pay or it through early June sometimes with this BD up the butt climate ... You couldn't get a f'n Svalbard native to opt to come here in April - This "could" be a year where the rarer warm manifesting later in March. When? My thinking in summary is that the SSW/-AO happened earlier in the winter ( early Jan..) as opposed to other years in the data - when they occur in Feb...your bruised bums until July... But the earlier onset/gestation rate gives it a chance to extinguish .. prior to getting too deep into the transition season, such as years when they occurred and modulated the AO later on.. Those years you end up bum bruised until July - .. heh But, the La Nina springs tend to be warm. HC expansion is a constructive foot-print in the hemisphere.. Maybe ..just maybe the two synergize a warm spring and ... maybe a some big June and early July heat waves..

Too bad we can't get the Pacific to cooperate - I mean, ..yes the GEFs and to some lesser extent the EPS show rising PNA ... but it's not appearing - thus far - to be substantial and/or teleconnecting very well to raising heights over the western aspect of the continent. That's really needed ... or there'll be some wasted potential - even the EPS nicely dislodges that SPV but ... no western ridge, no S/ stream ejecta, it doesn't come down. We are still seeing some interesting coastal responses but that handling is settling for a field goal on 70 punt return because of a block in the back - By the way ( somewhat unrelated matter...) but, you can really feel the warmth of the sun's return. The perennial solar min, which begins Nov 8 at 45 N, ends today - so probably more like yesterday when it was snowing ( lol ) at 42 N ..etc.. - No, it's not exactly re-sequencing epidermal DNA into precancerous dark spots just yet, but it's definitely flipping the radiation script.

I posted some annotated visual, learning material over the last few days regarding the 11-15th .. 17th period of time if anyone's interested. The gist of which was: -- multi source teleconnector fields targeting the OV-West Atlantic for correction event(s). Those being a decay-rate -NAO ( west limb block/ rising...) and a rising PNA.. These intervals tend to occur in tandem with larger hemispheric footed events - not always... but usually so. -- circumstantially ... there is/are SPV circumvallate with embedded nodes set up and pearled out across S Canada, ...dangling perilously in wait. Just needs the following to phase, -- in motion; the west limb of the NAO block may begin to decay ..and when that happens, it tends to exert S - probably the hemisphere et all that is really in motion, but it gives that allusion. As that exertion sets up ... we just need a well timed, better western +PNAP ridge expression ...which having the rising PNA helps that ... The Euro got close on the 12z run yesterday ... but the 00z ... eyigh ... Now, the GFS tries... So Will's right - it's bouncin' around.. Handed off between guidance like a hot potato. The flow is both fast, and entering a modal field change ...which is like taking normal uncertainty then, adding both those two factors to it.

Yeah...I've been thinking this synopsis might over-achieve in getting that to happen, because the ambient frontogenicity ( thermal packing ...blah blah ) ...well, the front has steepness to it, so any draw up that slope is going to be efficient even if weak, in squeezing out growth

so ...what are we lookin' at Will ... advisory? low end warn' ?? ... my guess is right now we are on the borderline between "special weather statement" should cover, vs Advisory... pending the Euro... Didn't see the Euro QPF but the 00z was reasonably well cyclonically formed upon exist so - it's got that goin' for it.

Welp ... ended up with exactly 4" of 15:1 ...maybe 20:1 ...I dunno.. but it was stack happy fun yesterdy. Visibility not really much below 3/4 of mile here in Ayer ... which prolly belongs in the ob thread but who's reading anyway... With that I set at 45" on the season - ... Figure 3.3" tomorrow... Then, 2.9" on Thursday ... then 5.4" on Saturday ... at which time, there is a fomenting blizzard threatening to miss Oh too far SE ... to fill the persecution drug cycle prescription ... we will be right on my way toward an above normal snow year have succeeded during the worst winter ever experienced - truly amazing.

Y'allz ability to disconnect from rationalism and apparent understanding, and still allow a single guidance depiction evoke "dashing" of anything ... is really rather remarkable - lol...

Not sure what NAM biases are for this sort of synoptic evolution. In past diatribes ...I have futilely attempted to encourage folks simmer down, and to consume 72 hour NAM with an extra dose of incredulity, when it comes to fuzzy deep navy blue or even magenta snow-QPF off its west Atlantic/ .. near EC cyclogenesis and track guidance. It just did it on this list gig frankly - ... post after post after posts strung together explaining how 'it could actually score a coup this time.' Lol .. No but this is not a west Atlantic cyclo - babble low. Nor is it a relay through the outer short range/ .. mid range temporal seam. Last night I was intrigued - a little ..I say that in the relative sense - by this critter because it is riding along what I see as a rather enhanced baroclinic region associated with the mean polar boundary. Right now ( and modeled throughout the week ...) the vagaries of the winds et al have managed to draped some rather breath-taking cold, astride the Canadian side of the U.S. border... As these 'little critters' zip along ...they subsequently probe plumes of that air mass down; these then mix into and homogenize the air mass quite cold within the mean E. low level wind trading around the underside of the attending polar highs up there ( synoptically suggested in this abv annotation... ) As these ripplet jet maxes that seem innocuous ( and really are in lesser circumstances ) ... zip along, they have enough momentum discontinuity to trigger some restoring inflow lift. But, because it is flowing into a rather upright ( tendency..) of the elevated frontal slope (think of it like a cold wall as opposed gentler slope), that will maximize psuedo adiabatic instability popsicle headache. Particularly in the 850 to 700 mb sigma depth. It'll come down to where the SGZ heights situated in the passage ...but ( 1994 ) and other historical examples show that almost non-discerned jet accelerations along these sort of thermally compressed frontal interfaces like you see above - which sets up for tomorrow and also persists through next weekend if you believe the general handling... - have a way of delivering goodies. It all means these little guys may over-produce. Over-produce doesn't me 38.7" of snow... it means, there's a like ...I dunno, say 30% top side that's negotiable and probably not really able to be forecast - almost synergistic, via maximizing one or two kinematic process among of a stew of minor events that by weight ... sort of hide them. ( This whole song and dance may play out again later Thursday ... then again later Saturday - this sort of nickel repetition has been pretty persistently in the models, too. ) In summary: this doesn't say where this "maximizes" .. . it just elucidates the enhanced potential/ .. native instabilities that are in place and fertility for event success. I wasn't surprised when I saw some of the overnights start double .2" liq equiv to .4 or even .5" ... Whether this comes N or S along that axis - I yeah good luck... Probably the IBM cluster LOL

Well heh ... “gang busters “ shouldn’t really be part of anyone’s expectation. I think those NAM 2” aren’t set in stone with those Synoptics

Yeah NAM solution would offer a couple inches at best ... it seems paltry lower side of guidance. Not sure it has to be correct in this baroclinic rich environment with mi level jetlets riding by

3.75" in Ayer... 26 F S-

Nah...you're fine Nothing worse for readers like a fool with a red pen - lol I tend to flood rhetoric into the turn of phrases - it probably obfuscates ( unnecessarily confuses ..) the flow and impedes actual communicating. But I like to write ... it's a thing for me. If I kept it strictly clinical and redressed some of the terminology ( scientific ) around explanation instead of making word-bomb statements bigger than storm being described, ... like equivalent potential v-displacement, that really doesn't mean anything to 90% of the readers in here - it's not a knock. It's just an educational/exposure thing... Smart people with good souls my lovely dinner guests, only. Truth is, you don't need to know those words ..or the complex field of math and physics that is used along with, to understand charts and/or eventually get an impression of what they may mean for weather. I can vary the style, .. and it'll be completely different. You know, - like when I'm humiliated Kevin for example... just kidding K

Oh ...that's right dude - shit.. ahahaha ... Welp, look on the bright side - you just earned yourself a name in the museum of greats if it goes ahead and sort butts ... 'The Raymond Superbomb' Well...if it's any consolation there may not be a 'big fish' - this is just early speculative assessment based upon likeable hemispheric signals and an eerily vulnerable baroclinic powderkeg ... ( haha ) ... yeah, I guess I'll go ahead and admit, it's not the best pretenses to wanna leave this region if one is any kind of a warm-blooded storm utopic seeking enthusiast Tell you what though ... it may go down as the biggest waste of potential energy ever failed - it's just not a metric anyone bothers to keep track of.. But I tell you what, if you're sitting at a blackjack table up 3 large off a 3 Benjamin buy-in you'll know what our visibility is back east at that moment

And ...having seen now the D8 ... with that hyper bomb in the lower Maritime region being the result ( eventually...) imm downstream of that phasing .. it really wouldn't take much of a western ridge earlier steepening expression to get that closer to the EC... Again, needs work - and I wouldn't bother mentioning it if there wasn't tele convergence going on -

We've seen it in the various modeling and have been onto the notion of weak impulses making use of the enhanced baroclinic axis ( not gonna re-type that sermon... ).. Erstwhile offering every 2 day perturbations bursting open light or light to moderate blooms / .. attendant weak low results through mid and end week. All the while - not to re-iterate so soon .. there is an EPS and GEFs/ .. general hemispheric signal for much more. We had just not yet seen the operational runs bite down and really hone anything in that 11th - 15th ... 17th time span. This run of the Euro is the first to take what I would consider to be a first step in adjusting larger synoptic features. 00z vs 12z ... ( and I only bother to annotate this tedium because like I said, it seems to be the best 'first movement' ) Left is 168 hour ( 00z); right is 156 hour ( 12z ): This run seems to hint pretty strongly at availing of the hemispheric signal for phasing - taking the fist step in modulating toward ... It's got some work to do. In order for this to be more successful ( less negative interference ..), we would like the flow to slow down - I think that can be handled in subtle dose of increasing western ridge ( trade off...) "if" or when any would-be emerging western ridge amplitude emerges further - ... which concomitantly, we need that to happen either way. As is, this run does vigorously engineer a cyclone that is vast more deep and representative of the general potential...It really only scratches the ginormity of the potential that will be inherent to the time span in question .. Yet still manages a 970 mb low escaping the EC... close!

..... me? out of words?

Just noting also ... fwiw - the Euro/GGEM/GFS/NAVGEM/ICON/KOREAN/NAM/JMA/EPS/GEFS rule appears in effect - they all have a weakly closed isobaric bulge with qpf lobe over top

For now ..yup

Well that's the thing .. it's minimal forcing ( yes ) like you say, but the growth would be decent with UVM feeding the SGZ ... that's sort of how we get to over-produced results. Maximizing one or two kinematic processes among a stew of modest aspects and suddenly we got 5" of solid advisory - But agreed with steady light to moderate, ... perhaps stacking by virtue of the over-arching pattern being the primary cause, it allows it to carry on for 12 hours that way ...So we may end up some interesting amounts for being only a vague cyclone mechanics. Yup -

Ceiling .. perhaps. I'm thinking it's 4 ...maybe 5" over achiever frankly... I think there's a cap on the cyclogenesis proficiency - it doesn't have a lot of jet mechanics for inducing the cyclonic scaffolding of jet structures... but, it has intense baroclinic/thickness packing ...so, any UVM is maximizing due to a steep elevate frontal escape ...and with a cold atmosphere in place, an IB/ SGZ efficiency look to it - ...have to roll up sleeves and look at discrete model products and other machine assists to prove it, but just based upon my experience/ synoptic overview combined - sure other Mets have hot takes too lol

This pattern contributing to Tuesday ... situates throughout the rest of the week, too. The "low" on Tuesday escapes seaward, and there's really only negligible suppression south of the apparent baroclinic axis .. such that it persists roughly along the 39th parallel through the end of the weak - contributing to Steve's thread impetus... but that part of this blurred by fast flow uncertainties... I mentioned this in the other thread ( month ); this is a powderkeg week ... probably through the 15th .. 17th for that matter. We are getting a semi- permanent + PP draped out from the NP/S Manitoba to Ontario .. under which around that 39 there is a long easterly flow collocated with ton of thickness packing. It's spring already along the Gulf of Mexico interface region - meanwhile, sub -20C plumes of air are amassed under said surface ridging over S/SE Canada. That's gas, plus air ... well mixed to the proper detonation ratio - where's the match? What makes this particularly interesting for me is that while all the above is setting up and synoptically evolving in ALL guidance through the mid/ latter week ( possibly beyond ..), the GEFs and EPS indicate a -1 to +1 SD correction in the PNA mode ... It's like a crime to transmit that much PNA mode change in the stormy direction, whilst that powderkeg exists ...and dare NOT storm.. Wow. Yet, all we get is/are these piddling WAA bursters and shrapnel faux cyclogenesis smears like Tuesday - That said, and to point ( sorry - just wanted to cover a bit about the over-arcing theme of the week/ .. next weekend ) Tuesday I think has a shot at over-producing. Mind you .. that doesn't mean calling the Nat Guard and putting them on stand-by or anything .. But, that intense baroclinic gradient is so rich that anything that breaks out gets a kind of 'synergistic' feed-back/constructive interference and even weakly close attending cyclones may end up with a couple of sneaky parallel bands on the flop side of the polar boundary bulge.. You can kind of see that in the QPF management in these runs. I love nickle and dime patterns - ... It's almost like Tuesday, Steve's notice for late Thursday ...and that unfocused aspect later in the weekend, is all one event - just different chapters in a novella. And, while this is all happening, there's a back ground potential to see something more important emerge given to tandem -AO nadir ( timed for 7 days from now), together with the -1 to +1 SD PNA..

Yeah ...I was just being snarky about the phenomenon - sometimes in the past ...I've crashed at night with this comet impact baroclinic leaf explosion on satellite clear to Buffalo, with rad filling in over PA ... wake up to partly sunny .. whaaa But the weather -tap radars are a bit less ominous. I've noticed that in the past when utilizing Intellicast's radar as a cheap bastard ( lol ) that it seems to smooth shredding and make things look more congealed than they are in reality .. The stuff that matters is probably restricted to SE PA- SE NY

That's exactly what occurred to me this morning, that repetition of light/mod events ..each smearing in the fast shear but maintaining enough identity to trigger potentials. The thing is .. that baroclinic axis ..roughly along 39 N from Denver to NJ ... is excessively rich across the bevy of guidance, ens...means etc.. You know this, but any time there is a wall of thickness packing, with easterly low level balanced wind... it's a baroclinic time-bomb. Even these very subtle difficult to find perturbations in the flow trigger these Tuesday type "critters" and that's really what 1994 post NY that winter was - just spraying critters up along a thickness packed powder-keg. All the while .. there have been/ are interesting EPS and GEF teleconnector suggestions for something bigger from the 11th through the 15th. The operational runs - frankly - are frustrating as of late because they just refuse to take the bate. I'm not sure why ...even the operational Euro is failing to do so - that model? Beyond D6? Given least excuse imagined to curve the flow ...it will do so! Having a -1 to +1 SD PNA mode change that begins later this week and wends its way to that the positive state ( EPS and GEFs), whilst the AO actually goes even lower ( -5/-6!!) .. should have been a memo for that model to go crazy - but it's like almost no reflection of a +PNA --> +PNAP response beyond the base line climate structure ... It's frustrating - Maybe the operational models will win ... I'm not seeing the GFS as taking advantage either ( nor the GGEM..) - this is all an ensemble mean(s) derivative - uuuusually when this sort of contention takes place, one or the other wins - either the weight of the ensemble begins to convince the operational to come out and play ( lol ), or ...the higher resolution/more dependable pedigree blend does and we see the lesser resolve ensemble members start to fall in line the other way. Tough call which way it'll break - good luck. But, seeing as the erstwhile -AO is established empirically, and the SSW stuff appears to be hitting the annular mode pretty hard over the next 10 days, that seems it should be a momentum red flag or nod at least as being big influencing force. And at some point.. that raw power of that kind of extremeness should cause the mid latitudes to curve around it - I think that sort of hints which direction this should break. It's a fun time, because whether something more cohesive and coherent begins to materialize out of the 11th - 15th ( maybe 17th ... ) ether, it seems either way we are saddling the conus with that rich explosive baroclinic instability and tweener features to keep the entertainment going.