Typhoon Tip

I’m sure they’ve done it internally in the engineering ... testing reanalysis etc.

Not impossible that the 24 hour relay off the Pac proves over assessed as far as potency of that leading wave in the parade ( apparently ..) that's about start later tomorrow and spit S/W over mid latitudes for week's worth... Anyone of which could be important - as is? looks like a bag of interference headaches... But if that lead is over assessed it may not turn a lakes cutter that soon and deep through Michigan...flattening the lead... I also am not sure the +PP and the curl/'tuck' scenario over/eastern NE is entirely correctly handled in the bigger synopsis..but we'll see on that.. . Should that transpire, the next wave originally slated for next Tues/Wed may return to the guidance' as a player - Not a prediction but I'll personally be watching the ejection out of the eastern Pac tomorrow...and if there indeed a morphology toward flattening things.. .

I've been noticing .. more so, the warm node up near the EPO domain there in the N-NE Pacific Basin ... It "looks" like a La Nina vestige/or artifact ...but, of course, then I have to concede to the La Nina as actually having an influence on the global circulation - to which ...I am not sure it is... The flow is/has been too erratic.. I think the HC expansion is controlling that more so, and the La Nina? The former circumstance is mimicry if you will.. Or, is being absorbed inside ...and since few seem aware or willing to admit/understand the HC expansion's effects on modulating/changing the Global eddy... they are simply unaware - yeah.. a bit if hypothesis that rolls eyes ...understood. But the HC stuff is not mine? NO - it's documented, scienced and papered... I don't see how we can expand the tropical/sub-tropical band over top the termination latitudes of wave dispersion without effecting that model... It's bad math - But that aside, it seems said warm arcing ridge presentation is a tropopause or lower stratospheric "echo" of a very high latitude curved jet over the Pacific ... more so than any PV break-down ?? ... The splitting vortex phenomenon is really not typically in that axis ...rotate that 90 degs.. That's sort of clue too - I'm almost willing to bet we could find this flipping into a mad -EPO at some point ...like topping a dam - Lol... if that happens no one Tweets about every little nuanced perturbation in the PV in an attempt to signal a good winter -

I'm wondering ...well, 'suspecting' .. that the flat trajectory in an anomalously fast hemisphere coming off the Pacific into western N/A is proving the operational models as being far worse than the technological hubris thinks of itself... If the EPS solution is right with 51 members at D8/9 ... than the operational Euro should never be run again -

Fwi not w - Regardless of the NAM's 2-meter temperature layout(s) ... all three 00z, 06z and 12z solutions for their respective 72 -84 frames cannot happen without an icing scenario setting up from interior Mass and points NE up the climo burrier jet axis E of the Greens and Whites... ------ know what's funny about that GGEM snow product above ?? It's way, way underdone relative to that model's centric handling of synoptics and it's own event, for a hemisphere that won't allow its model-centric synoptics in the first place - it erroneously snow totals for an error weeeee Crazy conooks -

What is this based upon ? This tells us nothing... I see a cross-hair axis with no units and squiggly line... Is it modeled ...or observed - what is this ... NOAA's just released/updated the 30 mb QBO and it has increased westerly phase intensity to 11.15 ... up from 10 in October. That's ending November 30 - Here is the yearly trend: 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95 10.80 11.15 -999.00

Heh... the whole ordeal is likely in synoptic flux anway. That handling over Ontario is this Euro run is tantamount to an anticyclonic bomb taking all of cycles to go from 10 clicks over sea level to 1040 ? Path of lesser resistance ... it's probably indicative of no confidence in a Lakes position with the 120 hour thing.

Know what we never seem to see anymore ... damming signatures in low level pressure patterns - gosh I miss the good ole days

Yet another school ... I also don't like the way the Euro rotates that positively tilted trough at D5 dropping through the Arklotex and stem-winding the mid levels like that. Looks 'surprisingly' over conserved with curvature - what's new ... Euro going from D5 into 6. Heights over the Gulf and Florida and off the U.S. SE coast are rather lofty in that evolution leading, and that's planetary banded/anchored... It could/should rather cause the flow to speed up and that would destructively interfere -

Okay yeah... agree with Scott .. It is unlikely that results that way - I mean it can...sure. But the model is probably transitioning, needing multiple cycles to land on another isothermal headache snow column... Probably just early on in that process with this run. One thing ...I thought about this morning, and wonder if we're seeing some staggering? It is not uncommon in multi- Pac ejection/ progressive patterns, the leading disturbances end up becoming more dominant. - this thing over the 5th/6th did that. It was originally going to be the 7th and 8th, and I did post earlier in this thread that we should watch the 5th system 'in the foreground' because it had ensemble coherence/weighting therein... So what happens, ... it disappears for a couple cycles and then comes back and eats the pattern's lunch! the 5/6th became synoptically dominant. It may be that a Tuesday system gets to be a real threat. Hard to know - again again again this anomalously fast progressive business is not a good fit for model accuracy. Beside, if we can get in get off get out on Tuesday ... we have a shot for the D9 to be less interfered -

I haven't even looked at it yet ...

Lol... ho man, you'd get a kick outta the JMA. ...that sucker looks like 2.78" of accreted ice, then, 24" of snow on top - from overnight Saturday night through next Tuesday ... fuggin cryo-apocalypse. I mean, I posted two days ago that this pattern was only deceptively bad but I didn't exactly have ending the world in mind. lord Is the JMA like ...useful ? I really haven't ever bothered to look.

Yeah ..that's a pretty striking already - thing is ... if/when any polar air bends around the corner it's game over for warm intrusion NE of NYC without some sort of unusually powerful S anomalous firehose .. that's precariously close there -

Short answer: Not impossible ... but low probability - We've obviously experienced some significant errors in handling these flat flows where open Pac waves with strong wind maxes get forced S of the Canadian lower hgts - yesterday I referred to this as 'inverse blocking' ... Whatever works, the PV or general lower heights N have a flow around the bottom ( polar jet) that prevents turning N without phasing... and the the flow is too fast to allow that... so, we end up forcing/correcting the angle of polarward turn S given time. Is this one of those ? That sort of error was more common in the mid 1990s through early 2000s... In fact, 2008 as others referenced... Don't know about recently however. Given to modeling "upgrades" ... Euro's had two and the GFS three since 2010 I think, in a time span where I don't even recall a -AO/neutral PNAP frenzy type patter. In other words, this sort of scenario may not really be tested in recent winter to be blunt. We'll have to see... If it were not for the -AO with the arguable -NAO both in play, it'd be a different discussion entirely -

Definitely watch D9's space - More so than the average ... GEF individual members carrying coherent signal into 80 - 70 longitudes ... with typical spread as to geography for this range - they all have something. That in itself is sufficient at this range to warrant - And as you/we've been noting - ongoing -AO probably not being assessed entirely correctly as to how it influences ...particularly when on-going PNA's neutral - the latter conceptually sprays buckshot Pac waves capable of getting things done, while gambling on polar boundary placements out ahead. One other things folks, - be advised that the pattern we are being handed by the blends and individual runs is an anomalously progressive one. "Accuracy" in timing and placement becomes premium... It's an interesting philosophical quandary of sorts...because - to me - we are above normal confidence in systems of interest, while simultaneously below the threshold of confidence in visualizing what those will entail.. I tend to agree with Will that an icer/mixier look for C-NNE is on the table of the weekend... But again, the D9 is red flagged and has been showing up in the EPS and GEFs with unusual coherence ... Could be a PD-model ordeal in that time span -

I'll probably be glazing eyes over with too much verbosity as usual at some point during the next while here.... but in short, that's an ice-storm pattern big time there. - the rip/read with pearled troughs enhancing periodic confluence with that N stream confluent into a split rejoin along 40 N Lake/NE axis is basically building/science 101 in how to lay a foundation for ice-storm palaces. But, that's the snap shot rip read. It's not taking into consideration how the pattern is or isn't in process of modulating toward some other destination, either...

Here's a whack notion ... ...that D5/6 Euro solution pancakes and gets a colder solution into NY-CNE ... The ejection out the Rockies could be overly amped there? It's a typical albeit nuanced bias of the Euro around that temporal boundary ( that separates the outer near term to the mid range... ) It wouldn't take a hugely flatter solution to limit the erosion ... Low probability but either way, that trough looks too deep on D5 to me. If it is manufacturing ... it ends up conserved up the St Lawr out in time....

I actually outright like that look ... has a bit of a nickel-dime suggestion to it .. can envision the steady diet of 2.5 to 3 day advisory packaging ...

gah-hod ... oy you're brutal -

Great find ! ... I was thinking about that 'front end loader' type pattern and this just nails the example right down - boom... In this/that paradigm ( this may end up that way in other words ) the lower heights and/or vortex up there in Canada becomes like an ' inverse block' ? Basically ( not lecturing you per se - you now this...) we think of blocking as ridge nodes wobbling around along the 70th parallel, directing stuff around them - which ..is a miss-read anyway.. the ridge is there because of the stuff going around that region, not the other way around... - Anyway, different discussion... But in the case of vortexes and depressed heights and suppressed jets, the block is expressed via suppression ...such that deeper mid ranged and/or extended events will have to correct S ...usually they do so by stretching also..such that you can get a pancaked event with a front load IB/WAA snow blitz ... ( love those 5.5 hours traffic snarl grid lock ) ... or, they shear into pearled lows... And, this whole bag can be icing, too... It's a way to think of blocking in the other terms/directions.. The -AO .. provided a reasonable stable planetary distribution...does support more south position of the N/stream ... SO ...the takeaway is that we are discussing what I like to call "correction vectoring" ...it's exactly what that means in simpler terms - which way is this likely to correct. Unfortunately for my street cred risks ... in the bun direction.

I know ... to the less experienced they think that's a raging E wind everywhere - noooo way man ... that's a magnificent burier jet sig there...talking 35 kt N, 900 mb ... - 6 C dp cryo hose funneling east of the cordillera ... I mean, not saying it's happenin' or nothin' ...but it's still fun as a pass-time to surmise based upon these "conductors" of imagination's symphony -

See ...I don't think the pattern's as bad as merely 'not having a big deal to gawk cinema over' - ... just speaking in general here - I mean, just utilizing the GEFs index as a guide may come with it's own limitations and risks therein ...but, the PNA is neutral - not demonstratively negative in the individual members, or in the very tightly concerted curve at CPC as I'm sure folks can see for themselves.. - not a novel observation pointing that out..But, since we've had spent 10 days robustly positive prior to the neutrality of the curve...and it doesn't actually go neggie, that's like Newtonian there in that objects in motion will stay in said motion until acted upon by a force sufficient to change their trajectory - The PNA --> relay into N/A may sort of vestigial maintain some of the trafficking ... and I think some of these weird solutions are trying to hint that way - ... I love synergistic emergence - it's my new obsession. Hahha... I know I know... But, with the AO tending to remain negative and the NAO ... well, I think that part of its' overrated for now anywho ... It's not a bad appeal from an teleconnector stand point to eb -AO with a neutral PNA driven PNAP underneath... Ice storms have began that way for one.. We could end up split flow ..? Hey - which can be MARvelous overproducing patterns for a myriad of reason...etc... It's not all doom - not that anyone thinks so.. Just sayn'

hahaha - ...perfect, 'nough said Yeah, I'm not insinuated ( ...at least I hope - ) that down sloping at a synoptic scale was the whole dagger... This was like Cesar on March 15, where - like you hint .. - every douche in the room took turns with the knife. lol. I dunno...radar flushed to light and inspite of attenuating beams and so forth... we went light... like, physically, right then... where the rad flushed light - Fit did... Bed did... Lunenberg did. Auburn did...I know folks in these areas, and they all were texting me, 'where's the storm?' I'm like oh god - Frankly? I'm just glad this isn't March 15 and they're going, 'where's winter'

This GGEM solution might be a hoot if/when all that cold loading up in Ontario ... ...uh, if it were not D9, just sayn'

The 12z GFS shows some of the headaches with progressive correction handling - I mean, I've noticed that intense open wave, where "punching" is most apropos through the OV at 132 or so hours, has been speeding up in placement. TT's nice "Previous" option ...clicking backward demos this ..at least 4 clicks worth - didn't bother going back more than that as it's squarely too far into bun-time ranges .... But, the GFS is speeding that up without actually gaining latitude - it's like it's adjusting the x-coordinate ( crucially perhaps ) toward the last decade persistent raging hard-on hemispheric velocity and really should be stretching the flow in lieu of winding things up. It may not mean much ..it may mean everything ..but, a flatter system doesn't erode cold as readily, and as others have noted, the -AO anchored cold in Canada seems resistant to change heading into the late mid/extended range. Heh...not impossible -