Typhoon Tip

Yeah I’m not feeling that either frankly I’m thinking 6 to 10 for now ... lollipop for teens under impossible to predict meso axis’. Option for a more robust when the relay continues to succeed and I don’t think these meso versions going so significant here as the relay gets started is mere coincidence. You know the northside ens/model smear usually does not end well for S outliers. Just Sayin. ...If the relay comes in weak sauce then the GFS gets lucky for lack of better word.

It’s basically like that first superman movie from 1977… Where he flies around the planet like so fast that he approaches the speed of light ? GFS is trying to do something similar with every feature it detects ... tries to take it from that position 90 times around the planet before the next cycle comes out…

Know what would be kind of funny or interesting…? Is if the GFS never saw it – like… Even in now casting it comes out with that model run and it still has that painted like that when it’s snowing ass plus plus almost to Rutland Vermont I wonder if that’s ever happened

The whole world has gone mad… It’s like even some government and officials and scientists seem to bias when not swept away by the e-psychotropic culture. They’re taking these just climate disproportionate absurd numbers and running to the hysteria bank with ‘em. I mean you’re not gonna get 20 to 23 inches of snow spread out over that vast of a pan dimensional area from a middling mechanics storm I’m sorry you might get an excessive total close to 18 out of a couple of meso nugget thunder snows in there I don’t know but you’re not getting the entire interior of Massachusetts under a glacier like that from this… … Unless it like slows down stalls and gets a little bit deeper and cranks in CCB for an additional 6 to 9 hours. Again 18 inches in a narrow isolated band maybe that’s the most likely solution not throwing up plausibilities for ratings

You know it be funny… It comes in so wack that it actually ends up going all west of us lol

Yeah...I mentioned this a couple hours ago so sorry if it's been seen already but, this relay off the Pacific isn't coming in a slug of wind max...the axis of the trough is well inland, and there are still 90kt wind flags stabbing into the western side of the trough, so it's got a bit of lag jet mechanics feeding in.. That might impose additional morphologies in the runs -

I'd lop the top 1/3rd off those ... but.. that's still a major event - probably doesn't mean much to a civility, no -

For concept/philosophy I'm actually intrigued by whatever the Monday system does ... It's contribution to a 50/50 construct has been noted ... but not for that reason. The N/stream is a wild card both tomorrow and Wednesday ... If the NAM is right about its NW positions/translation axis of this first system this week, the 'synoptic conveyor' hasn't really changed or entered a pattern modality. The next may obey a similar instruction as it is passing thru the same scaffold synopstics.. Both systems are really in the same PNAP orientation ... I still believe/think that in this particular circumstance(s) this week, proper sampling offer subtle influence flip regions into more contention across narrowed corridors...so a slightly increased potency in wave mechanics outta the E Pac is likely to mean a quasi-Miller B scooting 150 vs 75 ME SE of ISP and in a fast atmosphere that's really 2" versus about 9 at Worcester ( or more meso band depending)... But, as said ..that's a general sort of philosophical rule if you will - if the relay comes in more powerful it's going to torque the flow into more S/W roll out ridging and this thing'll likely end up both slightly slower and turning Polarward leaving the EC at more angle -... and we're getting more CCB expansion in that case.

The PNA being neutral with an - in process - negatively escaping NAO ( ends up +1 and change by D7!) ...is pretty damn indicative of a longitudinally 'stretched' field and the GFS ..too much? Here's the problem with determinism in summary ( from me ): 1 ... the GFS has a W-E bias as a base-line model problem ...and in a pattern that is in fact, biased in that regard ... that, for lack of better word might be "enabling" the GFS - and it's thus too much. I suspect it is over doing the west east latitude bottling of this system; which it could still be right if the next 18 or so hours relay paltry momentum off the Pac... 2 ... the sensitivity for this particular system appears to be mainly in situ to the S/W mechanics, itself... Assuming that we are not ( and it seems likely we won't at this time ) be getting much positive/constructive larger scaled pattern feed back, due to the flat PNAP structure of the flow...that leaves the S/W itself. If it comes in stronger...it will roll-out S/W ridging in nuanced quantities...but that would transitively mean a N totality of events in that case. The confluence and attending high are presently holding proxy on the depiction from the GFS but ...meaningless if the GFS native W-E bias happens to not see the real strength of the wave mechanics because of ... improficient assimilation - I've been saying all along, this entire scenario is unusually susceptible to subtle and nuanced variance... 3 to 5 kts in the wind core could mean a lot .. The other aspect, on #2 abv... I am noticing that the 500 mb wind max is actually coming of in a lag feed - it's not coming into the west like a slug... Such that we started pulling the wind momentum into the grids on the 18z ( where available...) but you look closely...the full/total momentum of the wave isn't fully absorbed until 12z tomorrow... As this relays in that time, cycles "might" alter. ... Anyway, I think

Yup ... coastal storms

18z GFS boob range unloads that interior NW territory crying hell and drills it at us

Code for ‘... ignore the piece of shitness in lieu of our dazzling parameterization’

So... some "lensing" and usage filtration going on ...lol - ... late to the morning party. I wonder if anyone's posted the least snow fall total map presently offered regarding this event ...doing so with the same zeal and attitude of joy - ...yeah right. Lol I was not personally impressed by the 00z suite in the handling of the Atlantic total pattern ... It's almost more in the 'complexion' of it - its hard to pick a discrete feature to demo this but it just sort of reverted by "attitude" toward a faster look ?? The 50/50 appears in the 00z Euro still, but it seem to be like... 4 deg of latitude more progressive so..noise? perhaps.. .but, I the idea here was that the 'noise' should sound like going the other direction. And I don't see a lot of -NAO migration in the 00z suite regardless of model camp, either. It seems yesterday's panache in that regard was not carried over so much into the 00z run - ... Fwiw, the 00z GEFs tele did also back off the -AO heading later in the week, and the NAO is technically positive albeit nearly neutral, along it's prognostic curve...so, again - we pick and chose the products we use at own risk I suppose... Be that as it may, ...the system for late Wednesday doesn't necessarily have to have a slowing/back-log exertion from the a retrograde Atl tendency... To reiterate last night .. if the PNA --> PNAP nuance a better post ridge bulge in the west, than it can amp and slow a little form the opposing direction...etc.. Regardless of these plausible modulators ...it's middling impact fast mover. I see it coming in like a wall 10 pm CT to 1am ASH and leaving by 10 to 12Z CT and mid morning up this way... It's like middle ground needle threading - there's some interpretation variance on what "needle threading" means ( apparently ..). It's subjective anyway... but to me, it has always meant narrow latitude of impact, ...not really much else. But usually, in fast flows... because the 'narrowing' and 'why' the flow is fast tend to be rooted in the same biases. Such that 20 miles on the N edge of storm output means you're on the in or the out. Dim sun to substantive accumulations over a short distance. So on a mid range chart, you're looking at a rifle shot at 400 m and trying to hit your city, through the threads of your sight-scope. . pilin' on metaphors... Storms that slow down get more 'circular' in geometrical circumvallate and that's why they are "bigger"... I see this as having some of that needling, but sort of bigger hybrid version ... It is a fast mover - and it is moving through some compression in the heights... I don't see much evidence of "slowing down" - not sure where people are seeing that in any operational model.

Cautionary noted: one needs to consider climate change unfortunately... The ambient Terran troposphere holds more water vapor at a given temperature than it did in 1930-1931. Even at decimals ..this has a tendency to "synergistically" result in higher individual deposition extremes...but also, maintenance precipitation events are also routinely delivery more in recent modernity. This is/was both modeled by climate prognostic efforts, and is also empirical/verifying. Having said that, that doesn't/won't/shouldn't be accountable in a particular anomaly at PHL, no .. .there could certainlyresult 13" of snow in a La Nina ... regardless of era. But, the likeliness of it happening now given sufficient cold at/while other analog values, is greater due to increasing ambient moisture in situ to atmospheric events.

My guess is the GFS isn’t representing the slowing Atl pattern pretty much at all

Monday thermal layout hasn’t really looked conducive … marginal tho This is almost bulging back north as a pseudo- ANA and cold advection hasn’t really had time to get in

Well regardless of whatever happens with ptype ... that is a beautiful rotation of that 500 mill bar structure/correction

Almost an indictment of its BL resolution one wonders. With a high in a position like that there’s going to be a barrier jet from Penobscot Maine clear to Trenton New Jersey and there’s nothing that’s going to get through that axis sorry

Yeah I wasn’t looking at the deep layer Brian I’m just noticing the surface position of the high - it’s not moving off it’s perch north of Maine quickly enough to believe that CAD can be eroded that quickly that’s not really sensible in physical science or a climate sense

It’s in speed heaven for the past 7 .. 10 years. Lol. It’s too stoned to notice Monday’s memo.

Yeah no that’s next to geophysicallly impossible ... Not sure if it’s a simple as just making the QPF loaded colder or lowering the QPF to atone for the cold but either way ...no way it could be that warm with a high positioned like that physically impossible it’s a bad model solution

Icon is most likely over doing now but that mid week system probably about 20 to 30 inches of snow

NAM bumping Mon NW may be the beginnings of phasing/interaction ... heading into the 50/50 destination

yet... all this predicated on the assumption the Pacific is sampling sufficiently to keep the 'wiggles' in check - but ...this thing Monday's nearing the coast and all the sudden? Given the antecedent and carrying on with it, fast flat high error prone flow ...determinism is at a premium. Think the general idea of Monday phasing and 50/50 the hell outta NF is probably heading in the right direction - too much multi-modal NAO support and it fits that paradigm really ... If there's ever a chance for the f'n bevy of guidance to get one of these damn NAO's right ...this would appear to be the best likely candidate time - That being the case ... the mid week approaching the MA I think gets some modulation - ...hmmm stroke goatees