Typhoon Tip

It's as though it were teetering with doing the show ... peaking around the curtain in apprehension. Pressure falls may lag the -80 cloud topped meso/nuclei that appear to be concentrating and also accelerating in the last hour. It's really either symbolic of, or outright indication there in, that it's T-minus an hour or two before we see either an RI or a goodly intensification either way. The question is, how far does that go and to what extreme - ... does it core out 24 mb and accelerate by 30 mph inside of 12 hours ...Or plus or minus either of those metrics, respectively.

They're also mentioning the ERC stuff ... The thing is, neither the RI, or ERCs can be ascertained, as to the extent it maximizes, or the latter fluctuation compromise wind velocity. But at that point ...it's really splitting hairs. 130 or 150 ... you got redic pressure well and probably a 20" tsunamis overtopped by wave running over the coast... I will say that with the dynamical models predicting the expansion of the wind field, it seems unlikely that a core would not begin to replace ... But, we're likely to get the RI first. Of the two phenomenon, the RI is more confidence. Bottom line, by 36 hours we may have a strong Cat 4 with no ability to weaken or drain off IKE prior to landfall most likely along the Miss. Delta/tide-water area. Inundation/over-run over those geographic features, and also up the mouth of the Mississippi would take place where ever nakedly exposed to the arrival of a storm surge given to present consensus

Bingo! The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday. Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance now brings Ida to category 4 intensity.

agree with prediction elevation to Category 4 nearing landfall, but there is no way to know if it maxes there or touches Cat 5 or remains just 4. It's outflow expanse is growing immense - it has huge room for intensification. It is likely whatever shear there is, is likely to be subsumed by the total mechanic presence of Ida in the area.

heh...Reminds me...last year we had a advisory level snow event on Oct 30 ... it was 80 every day between ..what was that, Nov 4 and 8.

yeah it's 92/60s here

Legit cat 3 is potent enough for user's dystopian drug, anyway lol. No but It's really more of an experimental talking point. Its need stems from the gap between prediction vs, sometimes these cyclone do get into the 160+/ 910 mb VIP lounge - the trick is to know when. Seldom does NHC put out an advisory with a max wind forecast interval like that - yet they happen. Someone with stats? maybe 12 of these ilk of storm out there in the last 20 years. IT seems there's a gray area ( weak pun in there somewhere) in that upper ranging. But yeah, once we are over a buck-10 in sustained wind we're denuding the shore and calving roofs, just matter of how complete that denudation succeeds.

SW shear is very light and I still believe that as Ida denatures the surrounding medium in lieu of its mechanics, the cyclones subsidence circumvallate ring will take over and intercede any light shearing ... effectively creating its own environment that shelters that. If the shear were strengthening it would not be able to do so... Other than modest land elevations over western Cuba, I don't see any real reason why this won't just continue along an intensification curve. Frankly this is vivid candidate for an RI ... just reiterating my earlier sentiments, I know ... if this mid day surge in intensity isn't that process already beginning. I feel confident this cyclone will exceed present intensity expectation.

It's dropped over 10 mb in the last hour and a half

Now a hurricane

yeah it's like there is a 'key slot' angle ...which by virtue of being so narrow they tend to luck out for system's just not likely to hit that bull's eye. And approach of ~ 120 deg The Mississippi delta extends some 50 miles ESE into the Gulf; by that convention, a S --> N land falling monster is bad, but spares them the worst if say the open mouth of the river where it meets the Gulf were to forcibly gulp the ballast of a surge dome - so an upper tier category cyclone moving up from the ESE. IDA is moving sort of SE --> NW or SSE --> NNW so they are flirting with disaster here should Ida avail of what appears to be some very good parametrics.

Yeah ...totally valid as an idea - I don't personally have any on that particular aspect. "Ida"know what to say, Lol That said, the general arena between where Ida is located and NOLA is a deep bath of basically 0 negative/inhibitory factors as far I can tell .. beyond 24 hours from now. You know, passing over some of the highest oceanic heat content there is on Earth comparing to the world's other oceanic hot spot regions. As a sidecar wonder ... I sometimes think NHC is/has become a bit too reliant on modeling, and not really ...or may have lost some 'talent' or ... or perhaps policy forbades but the polish is lax. I read their discussions and it doesn't seem they elaborate enough on the top side implications. They do mention some light shear, but the modeling shows that weakening, and should Ida's convective circulation engine become influential, that'll easily supplant that incurring force and make it negligible to the core. Their modeling is good, but not perfect - It's a soft criticism... I mean, some day time and place the natural progression of ever advancing tech won't need this discussion. Hell, they're be a "Weather Modification Grid" so there won't be a need to even run models in that sense - they program the sun vs rain; that'll be it. Game over.. oy. lol. But for now, they seem to just be sticking with the model intensity consensus in a deep layer tropospheric synopsis that appears to offer that as a conservative model result. It'll be interesting.

I am not bullish on succeeding long tracks, any and every year lol... Like we outlined last page or two ago, it's like 'exposure' to reasons not to succeed is to great, and creates to low of probability to do so. That said, ...yar some years seem to demo flatter longer motions before getting pulled up. If that establishes earlier on... it may 'sort of' barometer the rest of that year. This year doesn't 'seem' like one of those, no. If the NAO does rise like the recent GEFs-based telecon suggests, that's a good start for getting one to do so. But we'll see... Not to be presumptuous ...but are you thinking about that next one coming off Africa in 4 days ? That's an impressive consistent signal in the operational and ensembles of them, going back 3-days worth of cycles now. That means the panoply of prognostic tools all see/saw it over a week from emerging off Africa - that's weird. The GGEM is not the owner of the tastiest solution for D8 ... day 8 haha! It's more about knowing it'll be on the charts I suppose.

Present convective explosion appears to be a threshold success and we may see this ramp a bit -

It used to always be that you could count on a right bias in the track guidance beyond ... so many hours. It appeaers that doesn't apply in this situation so much, for only being 3 days. If it did, this might correct toward the upper Texas Coast. I don't know about Rays 145 to 165 mph max wind nearing the coast, per se .. but I do agree in principle. The modeling of the TC its self, vs the modeled surrounding parametric soup of almost ideal favorable conditions, certainly spooks as the dreaded "intensifying upon approach," scenario ... Timing that, or if it RI earlier then leading *usually* a phase of ERC ...and all those nuanced aspect cannot be ascertained at this time, but seeing as those types of "alleviation" are fleeting, uncertain... and frankly appears to be the only aspects that can mitigate this scenario's upside, it is one that looks very bad - to me. Andrew did something like this...as did Camille, and there is plenty of at least anecdotal discussion in back offices spaces related to these tempests that do that. Sort of bide time and then go nuts nearing the shore, as at least performing at the classification. It's almost synergistic.

The melt may extend a week this year

It does here... jesus

I don't know I you guys had a heat wave ...well down here I guess, when I was in Michigan so I wasn't here for that, but this is the hottest I've felt air this summer wtf - 94/75 at multiple home sites within mere miles of here

Risking being personally merited with the dreaded Category 5 Bun, ... Still, I keep seeing this ominous synoptic layout in the Atlantic Basin CV transit. What makes it intriguing is that the STR is strengthening that is over-arching it ...and that is from the Euro, which is cross-guidance in agreement with the GEF's rising NAO during that period, ~ D6 -10... The hemispheric mode is saddling Ferrel latitudes with the balast of surface pressure... This is very consistent in multiple guidance types, as well.

Like how it belts the N-central Gulf with two land falling, category 4 hurricanes inside of 84 hours of one another. That's a scenario in the d-day scriptures seldom envisioned -

this thing could actually bomb - I mean... if there were ever a rapid intensification model, now might be a time to refer to it. just sayn'

Depression designation

Not long ... Sooner up there.. but down here we may launch tomorrow and make a run at the upper 80s ... but that appears to be an 11am to 2pm ~ air mass removal at the coast, ranging to late afternoon inland... with a solid N-door/back-door hybrid fropa. This is the time of year where we do not loathe backdoor fronts! ...at least I don't... They are the absolute balm of soothe when they come through late August. They are not toting along 39F mist .... Rather, like a dive into a perfect swimming pool on a torrid day. That appears to be 75/61 Saturday ...after a 92-97/70 today - Consider us lucky ...because the circulation mode over mid latitudes N/A really is still very warm looking, but this trough ripping N of Maine being so unwanted in early May, is a god-send for dog-days in August. It sends positive pressure perturbations and air masses S-SW that really are hidden by the large synopsis - ace up our air mass sleeves in August's

GGEM reduxes, too

91/70 at Logan at 10:45 is pretty friggin spectacular for August 26th. It would be impressive for that to be the high temperature on this date at +10 but, relative to hour ...full sun, and no where to even borrow so much as a Cumulus implied by sounding and observations et al, may imply a very hot day is unfolding ...I mean, we don't even have smoke. I realize there are those contending the Logan calibration issue... but, some of these metro-west temperatures are near or equal so ... The wind out there is also flopping around from SW to NW so average west, which is farting right out of the city's anus. I'm snot sure one can 'reasonably' argue a tick or two temperature when the urban heat island spills air with similar other thermometer readings, over that site anyway.