Typhoon Tip

I mentioned this half in jest/seriousness the other day ... but it was really interesting and still is how the main player global numerical guidance ( operational versions ) were all taking the zygote 99L ( which I'm surprised that isn't designated a depression looking at various satellite channels/sources, but it's not a criticism; likely to be that way by sundown) on a N-central Gulf landfall trajectory, doing so with uncanny similarity in both timing and intensity. Remarkably consistent, and now also the fringe guidance types have all toed the line on that. I also suspect the similar handing of a Sierra Leone ejection into the CV climo transit, and rapid/strong development should be considered above the relative la-la range aspect. It's out there D6+ ... but the status of the VV potentials, combined with a +NAO-like circulation emerging and and overarching the Basin/transit would put that region quite favorable and these guidance seem to both plug a system into those kinematics, but most importantly have a TW over Africa already in "AI mind" ... 98L shouldn't be discounted either. That may develop ... whether or not it then interacts with that trough is negotiable really -

yeah the sort of 'super synoptic' suggestion is that whatever is delivered from the tropics E of Texas really has only one of two options: -- stalls and rains out down there, probably right where they desperately need 20" of rain, the Tennessee Valley. -- smears up and around the western circulation aspects of the WAR.

Yeah and it has to do with 'systemic momentum' too. For example, orbital eccentricities ... volcanism, even position moving through the galactic plain, even bio feed-backs and ocean aridity factor, all of these may have inherited the past era its momentum from a previous state of the climate. - I am not personally up to speed on those idiosyncrasies. Ppm in the discussion/green-house gasses are certainly huge, but these other factors could have made the D(ppm) on the way up or down, and/or become overwhelming, subsuming or enhancing the 400. Simply put, green-house gas is not the only factor. It's not so much 'the last time there was - ' that should be of import in the discussion; it's really about what was happening in the delta(geo) preceding and during 800,000 years ago. Having said all that... it's proooobably not a good thing that we have comparable CO2 levels, while our current delta(geo) is losing ice inside of Human life span observation periods. That's not a good portend. These kind of broadly canvased observable environmental changes means the planetary systems are being sent into a modality - whole planet! In fact personally? I suspect/hypothesize that anthropogenic environmental alteration have and continue to infused changes that have actually outpaced the rate in which these planetary system's of physics can respond. In other words, we may have to wait some untold number years to decades for the present atmospheric human-forced chemistry to realize it's greatest impact.

That's gonna be bad. For whom exactly is unknown but an upper tier headliner TC appears imminent to the mid range.

When you throw that hard right down the middle ….dam, stick the bat out there = home run

That’s why I’m not always that impressed with 99 mile an hour cannons… It’s really much better people can technique and paint the strike zone those are the guys that are unhittable.

Pleezy weezy with sugar on top let em walk off here

Better …

Wonder what the ocean depth was

Red Sox doing their best to stifle their own f’n rallies …

Just imagine before the end of this century .... winters will mirror this discussion, in the sense that as the winter's age onward the discussion will be - proportionally - how much ice formed before the perennial total ice out.

wow, today really dried out much more so than I thought - I figured for a mix out ratio of 93/67 for high and TD but we are pulling in 62 and 64 at NWS ASOS's Noticing also that the non-tarmac stationary out in "civility" - i.e., over actual land and country - are still tending 70 to 74 ... I'm wondering if this is a situational aspect where the wet Earth is keeping these latter sources more elevated. It's a total setup that uniquely exaggerates the difference between an air port's backdrop aridity against the swampian back fill of Americana lol... Making American Great with telling everyone their high temp and dew point came out of the ass-end of a jet engine ..

Wasn't following along so ... not to step on the jape and pull tongues back away from cheeks but ... actually, seasonal lag is very real in climate. It's why also we get winter after the Solstice - Lol - at least 'used to' ..back before you-know-what. But, September's likeness and/or summery retention is actually consistent, just as March should not be warm yet. Again, the 'classic model' is/has been getting/gotten skewed for CC -related reasons.

It's like looking at the last 6 or so seasons... there's some force trying to put the finale on New Orleans City, a poor marksman shooting from afar, that scene in "The Jerk." "He hates these cans!" It seems before Katrina you had to go back to Camille ... 1960fuggum9, and that hit east of NOLA. Katrina, while doing a number on the dike system there captured the media extravaganza, technically did not hit NOLA directly - no it did not! Nor did it land fall when it was as intense and ominous and potentially 'biblical' the day(s) before when it was a category 5 hurricane. It was in fact weakened to category 3, ... I think ER cycling was the culprit - Anyway way, ...point being, let us not stuff a fu'ing category 5 hurricane up the Delta of Mississippi and drive a 38' storm surge topped off with seismic waves ...up the MIssissippi - NOLA = NO MAS Not saying this for coveting some wanton thing. It's a warning - ... Yup. It's all "bun" and games, until someone loses a half trillion dollars to the point of unrecoverable. Seriously if the "apex" event did strike, it would end that... No question. It would be whole-scale destruction so complete that any value in recompense would have to come down to an entirely new and original concept there. But the point of this seemingly sci-fi portend ... is really not to envision that.. but say it seems like since about 6 years ago, that region of the Gulf has been blasted by 20 Cat 4 monsters or better in the models, but have really only occurred 3 or so lesser gods over primarily barren bayou country just out of harms way.

It's a good question ... There is an ACE parameter defined for seasonal activity. Sort of an on-going monitoring amid the oceanic basin. It's a kind of season's legacy reported in aggregate energy use. 'Accumulated Cyclone Energy,' and if a given season results in low returns, that might carry over. Because principle, ...what goes into quantifying the ACE measurement is in fact a measure of what was 'drained' away from 'the battery' - using/referring to the previous metaphor .. If that drainage has not taken place, than were does the energy go? Does it store in wait? Now, winter seasons on the planet correct for unused energy in couple of ways. One, as the hemisphere cools in autumn into winter, there is an increase in radiative bleed-off to free space. It's just a matter of gradient - in summer hot air doesn't absorb radiation from hot sources, because they are closer to the same energy state. In the winter, the opposite is true; the air is cold and the ocean is hot, so the air can absorb. As the hemisphere cools in autumn the sea-surface temperatures and upper oceanic heat content do fall do to this latter circumstance. The other way is through storm genesis near the interface of the westerlies with the subtropical ..blah blah .. so also would be Nor'easters ... mid latitude cyclones...etc, use huge stows of thermodynamic potential energy. But, storms really are like circuitry that speeds the process of planetary equilibrium from season to season. A low storm season, it seems logical to assess -ACE as a large potential for the next year - particularly if the winter season, for whatever complexity, is less draining. Think of it like this, we can wait out a gas spill and have it evaporate over several hours (radiative transfer), or, we can set it afire and remove it in a few minutes (1938). These event necessarily and perhaps crucially help the ongoing balancing by delivering masses of air to the colder regions of the planet, that are losing mass by advecting that air S ( they are cogs in the machinery of the thermal engine, as it were ). That's the hole parade of weather - warm --> cold..

Gee ... it's almost like there must be a steady feeding tube of drama and if there isn't ( in sensible reality...) dew points gets the node as the new ode to horror - The weather is boring - end of discussion. It is not suddenly worth the engagement because we collectively fantasize some sort of urgency at 73 dps LOL

I've been wondering something that only a dweeb like me probably would with my shimmering gallery in mediocrity for a life ... that while wild fires rage, and heat waves out shine even GW it seems ... nothing has really happened in the Caribbean and Gulf. That region - in that sense ... - has a surplus of stored potential energy. We have to keep the systems in equilibrium, or boats will eventually 'float through the air' and end up crushing a canal through the boat house rooves next to the marinas ... I think of the vastness of Earth's various natural Geological systems - to wit, the atmosphere is a part despite being air and above said ground .. - as kind of having a storm budget or climate. It's just that said 'climate' has never been codified. We only think of climate parameters as temperature, cloud vs sun days, mean wind ..etc. But, there is, in reality, a kind of statistical normal for all these events. Every region is assaulted ( or masturbated with ...depending on one's perspectives ) a certain number of snow storms or hurricanes, and if they do not get one, those governing physics that would normally cause them are like batteries left fully charged as crude metaphor. So a lot of unnecessary poetry to describe a post that could have simply read, "that region has stored energy so a big bomb in that region may result"

It's interesting to have these operational Global numerical models in principle if not detail, all agree on a mid range RI in the Gulf... That's an unusual and very specific collusion of modeling there Lol. I mean, they all cough the Caribbean invest through the Yuk. Channel... and then outta nowhere mid bathtub it goes from an inverted monsoonal dent in the pressure field, to too many isobars to count in 12 to 18 hours. I'd call that a Rapid Intensification. Albeit out in AI day-dreaming range, these disparate technologies appear to be in a state of "Inception" on that - ... Ah... maybe that means the region should be watched though?

Red Sox pitching sucks hog balls …

Yeah no shit. All home stations within five miles are 96 to 99% RH at 73 to 76. sack sticker airmass

Fact the matter is the summer got off to a really good start… Finally avoided a snow in May .. even started getting some warm days toward the end of the month and then of course June was very warm. . It’s just that most of August and definitely all of July was stolen from us so I don’t know C .. C+ summer

Seems like the back should break between D9 and 14 approximately …. Pretty good nexus of cooler teleconnectors out there and after that, the sun is just not the same in September - it’s like asking for a heat wave on April 6. It can happen but the return rate on that’s too rare to look for it. I think in 2014 or so we had a borderline heat wave in early September

Aside from fact that the GFS has been doing that since it’s genome transitioned from the MRF - regardless of season.

Isn't that the name of a bong brand ? - swore it was ...

Sad ... for the world, that's gotta be the end of the road for TRS - right? I mean, the man was 80 ( congrats! being in proximal to that life - ), and I'm pretty sure Jagger's 1028. Richards, as the joke meme goes is being propped up by who knows what .. I just don't see them really necessarily ... anyway, their music is older than 3/4 of the living population. I think Elton John did it the right way... He like announce retirement - does cameos and junkets and such... but it's less egregious to watch. You know, go out with a sense of dignity in a little bit of planned resolve. It is kind of painful to watch when aging celebrities "pretend" they are still pop-relevent. Maybe sad is a better word - but ... Watts was neither interested in celebrity, or casting delusions of grandeur - just speaking in general. Some actually know it ... sorta kid around with it. Like, I think it was Clint Eastwood? Not sure .. .but went something like, "I direct now because look at me - there's no way I could do the other thing" in a ha ha way. Heh, Rolling Stone: "What a drag it is getting old"