Typhoon Tip

this thread is/was intended for the mid/late week system but ... this is complicated and the foreground antics in the flow are involved with what transitively sets up downstream...which ( phew ) in turn modulates on the timing and placement of key evolving components for the latter system - so...the thread encapsulates the whole damn thing - Summary: Monday system may phase and stall into a 50/50 scenario - that would slow and probably back amplify the flow into the MA for the 16th.. or - Monday scoots out ..phases misses.. .and the 16th may rely upon western ridging (correcting...) and needle thread timing a potent S/W ... or - something in between ... But I don't know if we can really disconnect all this shit and do the whole thing justice - ...

It's like a tri-pole signature to look for - haha, call it the "junk" configuration

ANA's take place ...they are real - but ...I have come to find over the years that a larger number of those scenarios modeled, tend to actually evolve into more proper cyclone features with typical NW arcs/CCB headed frameworks .. It's like in order for A ( no system ) to get to C ( more significant system...) ...the model passes through a couple cycles of ANA B ?? That said, I'm really less intrigued about Monday as an impact here in the upper MA/NE region...and more so for how it helps in modulating the total synopsis for mid/late week - I do think that it is interesting that it is "more involved" in that regard as it is coming over land though... Anyway, 50/50 seed

That's how you know big storms loom on the horizon ... com's problems - I think some annoyed student even did a correlation study up at UML back in the day and found ...something like a .71 correlation coefficients between bombogen cyclones and f'ed up model transmissions, corrupted data or nothing sent at all to DIFAX. back whence that was pretty much all we had - internet was too new.

I just wrote about all that above ... in short - ... the recent guidance ( save the GFS which I'm okay with given that particular guidance's bias' ) is phasing it with N/stream and really going crazy with deep anomaly over the lower Maritimes ... we call that a 50/50 when that does that... Yes, and that 50/50 is "plausibly" anchoring due to overarching -NAO tendencies.. But the depth of that 50/50 is unusually deep in the Euro and actually the GGEM ain't much shallower ... And that sort of in total is the same differentials.. weird - but ... that is a 'backlog' that can slow things down. The Euro could be too deep - it has it's own bias to over z-coordinate matters in that range too - but that is a climo spot for maturation of cyclones so ...heh It's a precarious thing... My previous lack of enthusiasm for those paying attention, was really owing to conserving the persistence/fast flow ... But given reasons to offset? Sure...I have no problem discussing now. Again, this is higher uncertainty too -

Edit ...I left the GFS out but should have mentioned - I just don't think the GFS is going to handle the 'blocking' or -NAO/-AO exertion leaving N/A due to it's discerned velocity bias - it's not the tool for that gig.. I won't bring Fender electric guitar and amp to audition for a violin quartet

This is a problematic assessment due to inherent temporal-spatial uncertainty typically found with these kind of anomalously fast, flat flows coming off the Pacific over the North American continent. We are endowed with neutral PNA ...tho hinting at rise, while relaying into rather uncertain PNAP and whether that will feature western continental height ridge distribution, while the whole of that flow appears to 'train wreck' should these Atlantic signals continue to emerge. The short version: there are presently three distinct events possible in an 8-10 day span: Monday ... Wednesday ... over next Weekend - the usual caveat emptors apply, but are enhanced by said limitations... one must be open to the notion that given said limitations any one or all three of these are subjected to change, more so than normal for this kind of threat assessment at < 10 day leads. Case in point: More detailed: Monday's wave space is just beginning to tickle the denser, more physical soundings out west... I do not ( personally ...) believe that it's sudden emergence as a mere quick hitting, low totals but plausible higher impact scenario is a coincidence ( the assimilation tech is impressive and satellite sounding are hugely useful and needed, this is not a knock..) This feature's been identifiable in the stream for a few days/cycles but, we are in a low tolerance/precision mode, where nuances take proxy on determinism ...and subtle almost unobserved variances run to run can mean nothing of or grid locking commutes by cold and flashing on streets... This system may become crucial later on ... The Euro and GGEM phase it with Canadian/N/stream rather uniquely and barring a Euro flub- up at a mere 4.5 days in advance ( which despite any popular street cred, that model is typically still good in that time range - yes it is... stop it...), that union is destined to drill an anchored hole in the cosmos in the 50/50 location as shown in the Euro example further below... Then, the picture gets more complex because there is now better evidence that blocking in the northern Atlantic may be real - the stochastic nature of the NAO in the guidance ... it's the least predictable/dependable index domain spaces I know of, where predictions for winters can only be made the following spring but here... we have multi-day/multi-ensemble derivatives with more -NAO than the operational complexions that until very recently were not as prevalent in operational run ... With that onset, getting harder to ignore for me. That latter aspect is crucial ... heading into the Wednesday time span. As Will has bothered to put this quick annotation together ( I very much agree - so have poached it from the other thread ... ) this Euro depiction shows how a transitive "back-logging" of features across the downstream circulation ..can have an effect on pattern morphology and systems embedded as early as succeed 100W longitude coming east of the Rockies... Namely, the MV/90 W wave over midriff CONUS, for now...the most important system of the three in question: But what also leaps out to me is the ridging in west is more pronounced than earlier guidance ...and I have been waiting on that piece ( personally..). It probably isn't absolutely necessary in the R-wave distribution ...since downstream blocking may factor - so less "perfect" idealized structure is needed between the E Pac and 70 W when/if the flow is force to buckle... but, having that emerge really makes this more acutely interesting for that mid week system. It's more +PNA relay and suddenly ...teleconnectors converge The PNA is showing a tendency to rise again next week, and with an on-going -AO and these deeper SPV migrating through the PV rampart latitudes... Don't let the flow slow down or watch out! This becomes a subsume phasing orgy all over the place. For now, we favor a stormy fast reload pattern ... and watch that retrograde of the AO/NAO... and if any western ends of SPV try to dip into these Pac waves... It's an odd overall look, to run a depressed AO index with a downward modulating NAO... and an uncertain PNA. For now, I favor ( regional relative ) low to moderate impact events in repeat strike loading ...2.5 day (~) turn over times... But, monitor that ridge spacing in the west, because if that gets a little more while that 50/50 trundles about, we end up with slower moving menace mid/late week on the EC - also out there as possibility...

It hasn't been readily observable for me because I was being a presumptive asshole ? lol - no seriously...what this is .. is the depth of these SPVs and '50/50's around the ring of the PV are exceptionally deep. By virtue of those ...it is making the index derivatives negative ...and typically, we don't see "ridge" at 534 dm ... But, the Euro has a 564 now up there over the eastern limb of the NAO and Will's pointed out that it may have been easterly bias -..though attempting to retrograde ...anyway, point is, the circumstance didn't leap out as very obvious - kind of an insidious -NAO if you will.. interesting. But, that 50/50 is exceptionally deep and I'm seeing enough evidence in the GEFs also - big fan of cross guidance method - that a 50/50 occurrence is likely real... and that's just as valid as Will pointed out. In fact, I just posted to him and Ray myself that I though the SPV depths were maybe "why" the AO was negative more so than going the other way with taller heights ... then it rears a factorable ugly head in this analysis an hour later. huh -

I'm about to fire up a thread for multi-event potential next week and would like to use your annotation above if you don't mind? I'm just gonna have to do it again otherwise -

Alright I'll fire up a thread...

That would be awesome ... despite the previous contentions over wave spacing ... if reality 'corrects' the models toward the perfect amount of spacing for repeat strikers - Go from neg head woes to riches in extreme rapidity.

I'll say ... my source (PSU ...didn't bother to load Pivotal ) is on D5 and that is quintessential there - wow what a look coast to coast! woa - 50/50 low, anchored fresh polar high on heel, deep MV anomaly with nowhere to go but S of us... and, you're right Will on this run - the Atlantic DOES look more blocky ... I guess it is East-based? not sure what opinions are there... but - if that's true it may change my visualization on matters ...

that was said earlier in this thread too - that often in these rapid succession/Pac relay fast patterns, the lead waves end up becoming dominant as sampling improves coming off the Pacific. Well ?? - So, right now..Monday's system is at last over the west continental areas ... But here's the thing - the flow is not "slowing down" just because Monday may Currier and Ive us... I don't see/imagine that as a delimiter as by the time the "main show" as you say is getting engineered... Monday's thing is tipping cows in an Irish pasture - ..again, I don't think the Atlantic is instructively blocking things and back logging .. just from what I'm seeing -

Will ...Ray ... I'm not sure that Atlantic is as 'backward instructive' with blocking anyway - The NAO in the GEFS - for how little that is worth ... - is really more neutralizing. The AO contribution - sort of unrelated to the initial point - is interestingly vastly negative ... yet, we only see small blocking nodes. I am seeing very deep SPV holes in the rampart /ring around the pole, and I almost wonder if the AO is really being calculated in the derivatives as negative more so by virtue of those SPV depths ... The thing is... that notion/idea may be supported in concept by the fact that the flow is so fast in a -AO, which is kind of not really typical... Typically in a blocking.. retrograde becomes more common which is synonymous with slowing fields down... I wonder if we're being dealt I kind of oddity in/how the negative polar fields or getting to those lower index numbers. But as said ..that's off topic... I do think that the Atlantic offers some openness to interpretation and that it's not as 'blocking' as we think - What are the EPS numbers now ?? I'm wondering if there may be cross ensemble support.

Trying to time and space out features in an 'unmanned firehose' pattern - lol

You can see the difference between the CMC and GFS at 500 mb ... and how each drives their respective surface evolution - The CMC vestiges a negative orientation to the trough's axis slope... --> 985 mb low with polarward frontogenic banding ... quick hitting relative impact scenario clear to SE VT. Contrasting...the GFS slopes the whole thing positive with shearing gobbling up mechanics as the compression/speed of the flow absorbs the S/W wind max... flatter wave with virga to HFD...

I knew it! ...we're gonna have got thru this again around the solstice -

Lol.. yeah, "as is" that's got that whopper flat wave frontogenic banded look... Probably 4"/hr rates between HFD and my house - hahahaha.. Think I'm selling this as just noise inside a plausibility envelope - for now anywho... Like I've been saying, I do like the general 'keep the wave open and fast' look - as it fits the obvious persistence and background canvas. It's a matter of where it tracks, and how much potency gets squeezed into a narrowing impact axis -

Study your water vapor channels over the Pac ladies and gents ... That wave space contributing to this fervor is still 42 to 48 hours from coming inland over California... It's probably okay - I mean, the days yore and having waves suddenly emerge as potency ... ( almost lol buckin' for a refit when the wave came in..) the last most obvious case of that was that 'boxing day' storm back whence - that one seemed to reemerge pretty quickly when the relay over western N/A land-based physically realized sounding sampled it - may be coincidence in that case... Anyway, I think I'm seeing more 'over-assimilation' tendencies if anything in recent years - but this is coming like straight off the oceanic basin and the only thing presently between it, california and japan is open seas

Yeah I dunno... "as is" ...if this 12z version ( and frankly ... comparing the last 4 cycles are the same ) ...anyone N of about midriff CT-RI are getting virga and dim sun despite the QPF paint -

Ha ... when I was but a child ... up until 10 minutes ago ... I used feel that 'crash' sensibility in post-storm-mortem. Lol - The problem is, big powerful systems are - quite literally ... - physically exhaustive to the atmosphere. It takes time to gather mass ... and the big ones, those big juggernaut storm events of lore ... they have a lot of mass requirement ... It's like Godzilla spinning up all that energy and than spraying that plasma at Mothra ..and then the monster visibly collapse in a weak heap to regain its strength - those artists of cinema are mimicking nature. More time also exposes any systemic evolution to ' chances for bad interference '... so in that sense there is also statistica philosophy/rareness in how to look at it.. It almost takes rare luck, too? You have to get lucky that interference allows the time to gather, first.. .then, after the storm happens and the energy is used up, etc..etc.. So there is rarity of all necessary parameters coming together in the right proportion in space and time without other shit gumming up the works. - just asking a lot of chaos to not interfere negatively... Such that the jets are perfect, the moisture content is ideal ... moon and jupiter are rising in the Seventh House ... haha... but you get it - ... Then, if the reality is getting lucky, the "atmospheric super volcano's" and the magma chamber empties. You gotta wait a few millennia for another Yellowstone eruption to recharge - the atmosphere has a fuel-expenditure budgeting requirements. It really does... There's also a kind of ( for lack of better word) transcendent aspect to this love. The models have a kind of prescience about them for these big dawgs - or perhaps more so people do. I've sensed things before the models show them. We noticed this and had group discussions in FAST when I was an undergrad, how big historical events tend to have unusually long lead vision or appeal ... almost like, while the ongoing daily modeling grind of events pop in and out of the uncertainty river over time ... some events seem to be impervious to the erosion - stones in an otherwise uncertainty stream. The 1993 March event had a 10 day residence in the guidance/MRF ensembles ... which is pretty damn spectacular considering the state of the art of modeling 30 years ago.. "Sandy" also had this long lead kind of persistence ...sometimes faded some.. but I recall "having a feeling" two weeks... no lie .. two f'n weeks out, that something like that may transpire - ...there's something about these things that is definitely "synergistic" - it's like the gestalt of the times drove Sandy to realization .. then, the models started honing it after the fact. I think 1993 was like that... So was 1992 - for me anyway... - ...and I know that 1978 was ... I'm sure there are others where there seemed to be a signal that emanated out of the ether before the numerology counted - ... interesting I later began to dread the lulls afterwords and learned that big events lose their fun if suffering an extended tax turned to angst for having had the stormgasm of satisfaction - weather is horrible wife! This got long...sorry... I just wanted to say that as a winter enthusiast... I am a much bigger fan of nickel and dime patterns... steady diets that are non- exhaustive of large scale dynamics

Just also ... those perceived limitations are based not on the future - but on observance of recent trend and verification and model behavior ...sort of blended - Again again again ...that does not mean we can't change for the better. We have to be really careful here.. When we're dealing with 'edgy' flows that ride the fence of either positive or negative interference ... it take less to tip outcomes one way or the other. Nuances become proxy in such delicate matters ... Example, ever so slight post flow ridge response in the west gives a small amount of positive interference back to the wave ejection... The Miami Rule lurks there...but probably what happens is that you get more wave potency along a narrower latitude. - needle threader... Which by the way, this is already gone from a big up the EC Miller-B to needle thread as it is...

You didn't ask me but ... your post sort of provides a nice platform for which one can rant and bitch about this stupid p.o.s. ... Which it is to me... There are three issues with it that are bugging me - 1 ... the 'synoptic canvas,' which includes three metrics in itself: orientation of r-wave construction and d(morphology); timing of individual impulses - hugely also modified by the former; speed of the flow. The bold there is key for me ... I'm waiting to see/giving the flow a chance to change - so far...I am not seeing that, but there is plenty of time for that with 6 days of lead..granted. But the speed of the flow is detriment, as is... As is also the timing ... which we have discussed the 'buck-shot' Pac in a flat flow causing wave spacing issues .. that is also not really resolving very well for me. 2 ... the heights in the deep south... GOM/Florida .. off the SE Coast are running hot and this appears to be anchored at hemispheric scales.. In other words, there's not merely a deep wave in TX building those heights from latent heat flop ... the hgts are high prior to and during these waves ejecting and gliding overtop like rocks skipping off a pond. Even if d(morphology) - delta pattern/change, were to catch up here and start effecting more amplitude/positive/wave interference ... that factor would then "emerge" as a shearing mitigator. The 00z ICON solution shows this without even having .. the entire positive vorticity field is pulled and stretched into a 'continental ribbon' - if you will ... looks like a parade streamer. That is the flow speeding up in tandem and "absorbing" the S/W wind mechanics... that's what that is... ( I call this the Miami Rule ) ... It's not an absolute neggie wave interference... The narrowing of the storm structure and the speed up over the last 4 or so cycles of models ... smacks as related to that.. but it's hard to separate that from just a having a firehose hemisphere anyway - 3 ... that high pressure up there - assuming it is more correctly handled... it is not being assessed as a BL inhibitor/magnitude there in at this range. No way... If that high is right..and this thing comes off the MA at that polarward angle and speed and size... it will hygroscopic annihilate a flat middling faster mover. All these can certainly change in 6 days ...duh, but from where I am sitting... this looked this way yesterday frankly, and seeing these models "shrink" the storm size and speed it up/progressive ... fits better for now.

ICON’s 500 mb is succumbing to the Miami rule ... that’s why it’s smearing that out.

Start a thread and grow up Jesus Christ… Either that or start a new December thread as things got over 100 pages pain in the ass