griteater

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About griteater

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    Charlotte, NC (South Lake Norman)

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  1. 5 Euro runs leading up to the storm showed the following for total precip in Charlotte: 8.3, 4.5, 7.8, 5.2, 5.0 (this was 00z run last night) As of 3pm, Charlotte has recorded 1.53
  2. RGEM / RDPS and IBM GRAF 4km (from @MJVentrice) are 2 models that are farther south with the axis of heaviest rain.
  3. psu - enjoyed your write-up. Regarding the orientation of the North Pac High during cool Enso winters, I wrote a bit about this in an outlook from winter 17-18. Take a look at the section titled "North Pacific Pattern" https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50432-griteaters-winter-outlook-17-18/
  4. The last time we had a weak La Nina, it snowed in Atlanta and Charleston in separate storms, and we had such a prolonged and severe cold spell that kids played ice hockey on frozen ponds in Wilmington...all of that occurring during a winter with above normal temperatures
  5. My kids laugh (as do I) at how we can follow a storm for 2 weeks and end up getting a trace of snow
  6. On Monday June 1, GFS MOS has highs in the 70’s with dewpoints in the 40’s across the region under sunny skies. I’d say we’ve earned such a day given the weather in recent weeks
  7. @xhong - take a look at these links: http://lukemweather.blogspot.com/2012/04/connecting-height-changes-to-weather.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/rfovell/meteo_slides/Lecture15_slides.pdf
  8. I have a cousin who lives in Estill, SC. They dodged the storm but said that “it took out some homes completely and there’s been a few casualties to their east”
  9. Heightened potential noted here for the folks in Georgia. Cameron had some excellent analysis prior to the early March Nashville tornado.
  10. Very strong +AO in the stratosphere here (1hPa to 100hPa) of late. Also shown is the coupled +AO in the stratosphere and troposphere since January, and forecast to continue, which suggests a mild March is in the offing. Good by me, as spring is the only season of the 4 that I want temperatures to be above normal.
  11. Without a doubt, this was one of the worst mean winter patterns of all time. In terms of temperatures...for sites with a long climo record around the southeast, Raleigh seems to be the one with the warmest ranking where so far it has been the 3rd warmest since 1887.
  12. Depends on the source though. Isotherm did very well with his winter forecast (mine was terrible).
  13. See the GEFS tab here: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ For GEFS at 500mb, see: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_18z/ensloopwide.html
  14. For next weekend, each run of the GFS Ensemble spits out a few members with a decent storm. We've had some storms work out in the past with this type of setup, but the wave has to drop into the trough just right.
  15. It was 1046 over NW Iowa Thursday at 7AM - https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index.html