griteater

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  1. Posting the 18z GFS while we still have a winter storm on the models
  2. GFS out to hr84. Should be another wintry run with wave 1 as the wave is hanging back again
  3. Yeah we need wave 1 to be slower or wave 2 to be quicker to maximize wintry chances...neither idea is far-fetched. As far as the cold high goes, the CMC Ens at the surface has 32 deg with 20 deg dewpoint way down in south Georgia Friday morning - just shows the potential even if it's overdone
  4. It's a bit wonky though because if we were to go toward this more wintry scenario of the initial wave hanging back, then coming out with good timing (a big IF), the Euro would have been the model that had that idea first. Bottom line, we are always going to question things until the flakes are flying and the ice is coating
  5. Yeah Mr Euro has gone away from the initial wave scenario, and the GFS moved to it this run (and trending that way on the ensemble mean) The low budget models (JMA & NAVGEM) continue to like the more wintry early wave scenario as well
  6. The cold front ushering in the colder air moves thru on Wednesday. One trend on the ensembles is for the next Pac wave to be not as amped up and a little more suppressed looking, at least initially, to where some precip could be thrown into the cold air by Friday - it's a possibility anyway. You can see here on the EPS trend loop how the Northeast cold vortex has trended to where it isn't moving out as quick....also, the trough in the southern plains isn't as amped (the height lines over the SE are trending more west to east instead of SW to NE - that keeps it colder). Of note, some of the GFS Ensemble members and the Canadian Ensemble mean show potential for light freezing rain deep into Georgia by Friday morning.
  7. Here's a trend loop on the EPS for the wave over the 4-corners (this includes the 18z EPS run - the last image in the loop). Good trend
  8. The 12z Euro Ens Mean was indeed colder, with the 32 degree here down into SC & GA
  9. 12z JMA is similar to the Euro 500mb evolution, but faster with the storm, and colder
  10. Euro is very similar to yesterday's wintry 12z run at 500mb, but not as cold. At hr186, sfc low in NE gulf and cold high over New England. hr186-192 there is what looks to be frz rain from I-85 and NW in North Carolina
  11. Euro is trying to go back to its wintry solution from 12z yesterday, leaving the early wave in Cali behind the cold trough before bringing it out
  12. On the 12z GFS, the timing between the front bringing in the cold air and the follow up wave that kicks out and yields the storm was actually better this run. Problem is, the initial cold trough didn't press as much this run and it lifted out quickly, so it's warm with rain. Could be more chances coming down the line on the GFS run as it continues to be fairly cold out to hr249 12z UKMet at 144 isn't quite as quick to move out the initial cold trough as the GFS, though not a huge difference.
  13. Canadian has what looks like a significant ice storm next Friday (ice to rain but heavy precip on the front end). Then ending as some light snow maybe - big, slow moving storm
  14. It goes about it in a different way, but yeah, there’s potential here if we get a good cold dome to drop down. The GFS storm there is a follow on wave that drops into the trough
  15. Likely won’t mean much in the end, but GFS took a step toward the Euro this run with a slower progression of the Pac wave thru California