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griteater

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About griteater

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    Charlotte, NC (South Lake Norman)

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  1. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    February temperatures and 500mb to date
  2. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Live look at a wild U.S. Temperature Map
  3. griteater

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    Surefire signs that winter has gone bad: 1. Severe weather talk in the eastern U.S. 2. Snow in Seattle and Portland
  4. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Chicago goes from a HIGH temperature of -11 on Wednesday to rain on Saturday night / Sunday. This winter proving to be an equal opportunity fail boat.
  5. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The cold plunge with the PV lobe dropping into the Great Lakes has held fine on the modeling, but the change has been that the subsequent flip to a poor Pacific pattern is moving in quicker now. We just haven’t been able to sustain an eastern trough this winter that is more common during positive ENSO
  6. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Don’t know if it is toast, but optimism should be low IMO.
  7. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The Pacific - North America pattern looks bad (warm) for the first 10 days of February. It would take a big block in the green circle there to overcome it
  8. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yes I like the prospects for a storm chance in a window there after the PV moves E/NE out of the Great Lakes
  9. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    You threw us off when you said “next week”, but yes, after the cold retreats following the PV drop into the Great Lakes, the pattern looks god-awful for wintry interests
  10. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Nice seeing the Euro with the Feb 2-3 storm, and FV3 was close. Not sure why anyone would be pessimistic about this time period in general. There is some decent pattern support for it
  11. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Canadian is more in the FV3/UKMet camp and is colder along the coast....on to the 12z's
  12. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    For Sunday/Monday, the models are going about this storm in slightly different ways. The Euro is keying on the southern wave in the gulf and detaches it a bit from the northern stream as it moves out of the gulf then northeast into the eastern Carolinas - this evolution is on the warmer side. The FV3 and UKMet are keying on the northern stream wave that drops down into Bama, then east into the Carolinas, while moreso depositing the southern wave in the gulf - this evolution is a bit colder. The GFS is kind of a blend of the two camps. I would root for the FV3/UKMet solution, but with a stronger dive and "bottoming out" of the northern stream wave. There is a long line of storms going back in time that have trended west in that area off the SE coast. The early Jan storm last year kept trending west, for example....but getting the temps and storm to cooperate will be a bit of a challenge.
  13. griteater

    1/30-2/2 event

    Was so proud of you Orangeburg for not pulling the trigger prematurely to start the last thread, but today was the day that the pride died
  14. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Or maybe in between your image 2 and 3 where the PV lobe over the Great Lakes moves into SE Canada and their is a window where a wave from the west could run into cold air that has yet to retreat
  15. griteater

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Quite honestly, the early December setup / 500mb configuration was excellent (southern slider w/ NE confluence and sfc high)....we (Greenville to Charlotte) need the early Dec configuration to go with the current cold air masses we have to our north/northwest. The 500mb configuration right now (Hudson Bay vortex) isn't the best, but can work.
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