griteater

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About griteater

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    Charlotte, NC (South Lake Norman)

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  1. My understanding from years back is that a Meteorologist is someone who has a college degree in Meteorology. Pro Forecaster is someone who is, or has been, employed in the weather forecasting industry, but doesn’t have the Meteorology degree.
  2. Yeah let’s see how it plays out, but we’ve essentially been shutout so far on storm threats. That’s the one that stands out of the 3 you mentioned. Even in the horrid winter of 11-12, we had the one weak storm in Feb across parts of NC
  3. @Isotherm - so the southward directed convection associated with the MJO - random happenstance or other forces at play causing it?
  4. Could go down as one of the worst winters ever if @Isotherm is correct with his new update. He's done very well with his outlook so far (unlike me!) - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52684-my-winter-outlook-2019-2020/?do=findComment&comment=5430163
  5. What brought you back? An offer you couldn’t refuse?
  6. The 500mb wave has to dive down and bottom out farther to the southwest or nothing else matters. Most, but not all, simulations dive the wave down too far east. Other possibility is getting a southern stream wave to streak in a couple days later and prior to the cold high retreating off the NE coast
  7. 12z Euro control was a big hit next week over a portion of NE NC and SE VA
  8. Long range on the 12 zeez wasn’t too kind. CMC Ens was the coldest, but less western ridging and not as cold on the GEFS and EPS. The western ridging is kind of a must have given the unrelenting +AO. The split flow and southern stream look remains though which is good
  9. Harsh but fair i like the idea of the wave next week diving well south but question whether it will be far enough west. Need that trough in the NE Pac to quit impinging on our western ridge. The setup is close enough for now anyway. Maybe happy hour will throw us a bone
  10. GFS is a convoluted mess at 500mb, but that’s the cold high pressure we obviously need to hook up with
  11. That’s the best looking surface high over the Midwest I’ve seen on a model run in a long time (00z GFS early next week)
  12. #3 is beautiful for example (from 18z GEFS Members). Some other hits in there
  13. It's kind of funny that folks have been talking about the lack of +AAM causing it to be warm, then now, there is talk of us getting too much +AAM with a warm result as well. So with the +AAM and MJO circuit thru 7-8-1, we should expect to see the Pacific jet extend, leading to a tendency of seeing an Aleutian / North Pac Low with western ridging and split flow (ideal)...but too much +AAM / too strong MJO and you get scenario 2 I mentioned earlier where the jet extension / westerly flow is too strong and the western ridging gets broken down and doesn't sustain itself (cool at times, but not cold enough)
  14. Clearly, the first period of interest following the Fri-Sat mix to rain deal is next Monday - Tuesday where we look to see if the northern stream can dig far enough south and west to ignite a SE coastal storm.