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griteater

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    Charlotte, NC (South Lake Norman)

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  1. griteater

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    The Euro for Dec-Feb was posted earlier in the month, but here's a different view of it at 500mb (1st image). Second image is the EuroSip which is an ensemble of the Euro, UKMet, Meteo France model, CFS, and JMA
  2. griteater

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    At 30mb, it should be up to around zero for October (i.e. transitioning from negative to positive), and continue climbing positive thru winter. At 50mb, it should remain negative for at least the first half of winter.
  3. griteater

    ENSO 2018

    October release of the JMA has a trough in the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. sans the deep south. Aleutian Low is weak and west. Max -VP anomalies (CHI) are west of the dateline in the tropical Pacific. SSTs increased only slightly and show a weak El Nino.
  4. griteater

    ENSO 2018

    For Nino 3.4 Aug to Oct model releases: UKMet Aug: Moderate Nino Sep: Weak Nino Oct: Moderate Nino Jamstec Aug: Weak Nino Sep: Moderate Nino Oct: Strong Nino
  5. griteater

    ENSO 2018

    Here's a new version of the ENSO Base Chart (SST) with all El Ninos since 1950 included, and with the new September value in for this year...
  6. griteater

    ENSO 2018

    Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger
  7. griteater

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Here's the Euro Seasonal (Dec-Feb) Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger
  8. griteater

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    From @true_weather...
  9. griteater

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Info from StormVista on the Euro: 6z and 18z will run out to hr90 on the operational run, and out to hr144 on the ensemble run. Sounds like they are waiting on a few things from ECMWF, but expect to begin having those runs 'soon.' On the ENSO front, the latest weekly SST value for Nino 3.4 is up to +0.6. Subsurface warmth continues to look healthy and more westerly winds are occurring across the central and east Pacific. Weak El Nino looks like a solid call now IMO.
  10. griteater

    ENSO 2018

    Alternate El Nino Base charts using the Modoki Index... For Weak El Ninos Post 1978... For Weak El Ninos from 1950-1978 Conventional vs. Modoki El Nino Pattern... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt
  11. griteater

    ENSO 2018

    Agree, I have been a little skeptical about ENSO reaching official weak El Nino status, but the current subsurface profile combined with westerlies pushing out from the West Pacific into the Central and Eastern Pacific are driving warming profiles. The models showed this spike all along for Sept into Oct, so there's that as well. Despite the recent warming, there will be ebbs and flows with the SSTs going forward. Here are a couple of charts I put together on the El Nino Base... El Nino base chart using Central minus East Pacific Index for Weak El Ninos Post 1978... El Nino base chart using Central minus East Pacific Index for Weak El Ninos from 1950 to 1978... East vs. Central Pacific El Nino Pattern... https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL047364 http://www.met.igp.gob.pe/datos/EC.txt
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