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griteater

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About griteater

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  • Location:
    Charlotte, NC (South Lake Norman)

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  1. Euro has a healthy cool down late next week
  2. stadium - you wouldn't include 2015-2016 Super El Nino winter would you?
  3. Saw where Nino 3.4 SST anomaly has dropped down to -0.62 on the daily reading. We've gone from threatening to go into an El Nino to threatening to go back into a La Nina in terms of SSTs
  4. Saw this... "Is it really worth the trip to the path of totality when you can stay home and see the partial eclipse? Pulitzer prize winner Annie Dillard, who witnessed both types of eclipses in 1979, compared them as follows: A partial eclipse is very interesting. It bears almost no relation to a total eclipse. Seeing a partial eclipse bears the same relation to seeing a total eclipse as kissing a man does to marrying him, or as flying in an airplane does to falling out of an airplane."
  5. We have updates. I removed the CA Model, at least for now, because its initialization and early fall projection of ENSO looks too high (+0.5 / +0.6)
  6. Euro has a 594dm ridge developing over the SE Sunday into Monday....that should yield at least some level of hope for some sunny / partly sunny areas during the eclipse.
  7. A few updates trickling in...
  8. From @BenNollWeather... "Perhaps the most interesting trend in the new ECMWF seasonal data for boreal winter 2017-18 is toward a more negative AO. NAO is variable. Examining the data a bit further: the top cluster (~50% of members) favor above normal heights across western North America during Dec-Feb."
  9. It was just so dang hot the last 2 summers in comparison
  10. Saw where Lowes is running an early sale on pre-emergent [emoji41] Tropics about to turn active. Better not ruin my beach trip
  11. Columbia, SC # of days 95 degrees or higher May 1 - Aug 2, 2016: 43 May 1 - Aug 2, 2017: 16
  12. As I did a year ago, I will model chase the seasonal models as they come in thru Oct. A year ago, 8 of the 11 showed above normal winter temperatures in the southeast in their October release....and that's what we got, above normal temperatures. Here are the early August returns...
  13. Not a single cumulus cloud in the sky on a July aftn - super rare
  14. Here are a couple of temperature charts I put together for Charlotte. Chart on the left is for data since 1879. Chart on the right is for data since 1950. The strong (non-super strong) and weak El Ninos show the largest percentage of winter months at least 1 degree below normal, while the super El Ninos and strong La Ninas show the smallest percentage of winter months at least 1 degree below normal, with the rest of the ENSO phases somewhere in between. For temperature departures, I used a moving climatology base period. For example, for the winter of 1930-1931, I used the temperature averages from 1901-1930. For ENSO determination, I used Sep-Nov to Jan-Mar ONI from Eric Webb's ENSO Ensemble ONI - http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-522017.txt