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griteater

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  1. Final tally for October
  2. From https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/us-winter-outlook-mostly-mild-chilly-northwest-and-roller-coaster-northeast
  3. raindance - your map does show that the SSTs are a little cooler in the gulf and off the east coast compared to last year at this time...however, the majority of North Atlantic SSTs are still above normal and the AMO at this link only shows a small drop from last summer/fall...i.e. a drop from +0.4 to +0.3 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data)
  4. Seasonal model updates for October...
  5. Thus far in October in the 30N to 60N region, mostly cool anomalies have prevailed except in Eastern North America
  6. Here's an alternate view of the 1932-1933 winter SSTs against the 1901-1930 averages (i.e. 1933 minus 1901-1930) via HADISST
  7. The QBO is going to be in its most favorable phase for high latitude blocking this winter (front end of the -QBO). We are trying to move slowly toward solar minimum, but with bumps in the road. Solar was fairly quiet in May, June, and July. It became more active in August, and very active in September. Oct has been very quiet thus far...sun is currently spotless and geomag and solar wind numbers have been weak. Ideally, the sun goes into hibernation thru winter, but it will likely continue to have flare ups until we get deeper into the minimum.
  8. October looks similar for both. Significant difference over Alaska and the Arctic in November
  9. Top 10 Coldest vs. Warmest -ENSO winters (Negative Neutral and La Ninas), at CLT using departures from a moving 30 yr avg. North Pacific ridging is more north and east through Alaska in the cold composite...and polar opposites with the AO/NAO over the Arctic and Greenland.
  10. Well written article about U.S. temperature trends using "Optimum Climate Normals". Article states, "you can see that for temperature, the trends during the summer are much larger, and during spring and fall are more expansive, than the trends during the winter. In fact, much of the country has been near the 1981-2010 average during the winter months of the past 15 years" - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/another-non-enso-thing-affects-seasonal-forecasts
  11. Early snow in Steamboat, CO
  12. ^ Good to see you in here Bob C Here are snow anomaly maps (% of normal snow) for each decade since the 1950's. Begins with the map for the 2010's...
  13. For all the west coast troughing and east coast ridging, the weather looks pretty dang good over the next week beginning tomorrow (highs in the 60's to low 80's from mtns to Columbia)......warming thereafter
  14. This is the Shet pattern right here
  15. "Mount Agung in Bali is experiencing unprecedented levels of seismic activity and could erupt in a “matter of hours” if tremors continue, Indonesia’s volcanology centre has said." "Data showed that Mount Agung experienced 844 volcanic earthquakes on Monday, and 300 to 400 earthquakes by midday on Tuesday" "Syahbana said it was impossible to say that Agung would definitely erupt, only that the data showed there was an increasing probability that it would. “There is no volcanologist in the world who could predict precisely when a volcano will erupt,” he said. “Volcanoes are a stochastic system, many complexities are unknown by the human brain and technology.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/26/bali-volcano-eruption-seismic-activity-mount-agung