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About SnowNiner

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Mooresville, NC

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  1. For me it's all about surface temps. If you can't wet bulb down to 32 (preferably 30), it's just really hard to get good accumulating snow. My biggest take away this storm so far is I want my high pressure in the NE. Good strong CAD signal. Cold air in place first. Waiting for rain/rates to get snow is a losing battle 9 times out of 10.
  2. It is amazing we're talking about snow at all considering the overall pattern. Just think what we can do next year with a raging -AO and super pumped +PNA!
  3. 2-3 in Iredell county. Score! lol. I'll take it. Let me see some flakes fly for a while, make a few snowballs, and let's get on with spring.
  4. Agreed. When there's ANY kind of winter storm in the Carolinas where precip gets to VA, Greensboro and Winston Salem get the lion's share. They'll struggle least with temps as usual.
  5. This is your storm CR. If anybody's going to pull off a winter storm in NC it's you guys out east. You may mix with some sleet but I think eastern sections score even with the warm nose. Moisture hangs out with you guys a lot longer than it will for us out west. That'll give time for the cold to get here IMO. Bask in your coastal!
  6. Thanks, yeah that's been exactly my fear all along. GFS was in and out of there quick too. It's NAM or nothing at this point for mby.
  7. If we could start and finish the storm with snow that would be great. It keeps the rain/snow line nice and south of clt (well lake norman, then quickly goes south).
  8. That's not good. It's going to be warmer I'd expect...
  9. Wow, that looks great. It removes the lull in the central piedmont, hope it's right.
  10. Yeah, well because all the professional forecasters seem to be along with GSP. They're discounting the nam.
  11. I'm worried about surface temps. Per the GFS, we're warm at the surface even though the column is cold and it's snowing. Nam is a bit colder but seems to be discounted everybody. If we're sitting at 36 or so we'll lose alot of accumulation and sticking to the roads is doubtful IMO. I don't see the rates being hard enough to cool us down to freezing. Evidently no other met does either looking at the accumulation numbers forecasted. Everybody is honking the "on elevated surfaces" jargon. Sigh. Hoping things tick colder today. Remember when we were worried about qpf? Nope, it's always temps.
  12. Surface temps are my pet peeve, listening to the snow melt and run down the gutters as it falls. With the nam moving North and North with the warm nose this may not be a very impactful storm for clt.
  13. I'm completely fine with sleet if we're solidly below freezing. I'd just like a strong winter storm event. I'd suspect that's why many mets are going so low impact event with this is 1. Hugging the euro and 2. seeing above freezing surface temps. It would be nice if we didn't have to worry about temps one time wouldn't it?! Only a 1043+ high in just the right spot....
  14. One thing I'm watching though, assuming the qpf is significant in mby, is the surface temps. The last GFS run although improved, still has surface temps around 34 degrees during the event (per soundings). Yes accumulation can happen at that temp but we'll lose accumulation because of it. I'd really like the nam to be more right not only because of qpf but its slightly colder. I'd greatly like to be below freezing during peak moisture.
  15. Really? I would not have expected that thanks. My understanding is that the snow event from last weekend in GA was also poorly modeled by the euro, but well done by the nam. See I write that, but I'm having such a hard time believing it. I want to weenie out but my skeptical mind just won't let me!