cbmclean

Was interested to note at in the slide deck how the infamous Morch 2012 was preceded by some not-bad looking MJO history. Most of February spent in 8 -1- 2.

I am eagerly awaiting a PSU postmortem for this winter. In the meantime, does anybody know if the extreme SSWE produced some good blocking for someone, somewhere? The eastern CONUS obviously did not cash in, but I am hoping somebody did.

But were those favorable outlooks really realistic though? From discussion I have seen on here, it seems like a lot of warning signs were missed. No disagreement about the LR models though. I'm not sure I will ever again be able to take them seriously.

All right, looks like it's about time to lower the blinds, turn out the lights and wrap this one up.

Well, base don the recent posts, there is nothing to talk about.

I didn't realize you had surpassed the median. That's good I guess. A challenging year to classify. Sneakily not bad numbers wise at least for many of you guys, but mostly unsatisfying.

How are you doing with your seasonal totals? Are you going to creep your way to the median?

I apologize if this has already been posted here today. Hat tip to Solak in the SE forum NWS bulletin saying that full release of FV3 delayed. Among other things, the cold/snow biases are being investigated. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

Ah, southern Wake screwjob. Cold Rain will be happy.

Thank you.

I appreciate your time. So when people talk about NS or SS shortwaves, they are referring to areas of elevated vorticity? And phasing is when areas of elevated vorticity from north and south approach each other and merge?

I hate to go all newbie here but does any on want to accept the challenge of trying to take 30 seconds to educate me a bit about how to interpret this image? I understand the concepts of geopotential height and vorticity. But how do you recognize the shortwave? How do you pick out the northern and southern streams. What is phasing?

Him and his dang snow shields.

Yep. Just happy to see the possibility at this stage.

Subfreezing 850's down to Mexico, but of course cold rain form eastern NC.