cbmclean

Today was colder than Christmas 2015.

Was there a synoptic reason for the relative precip minimum in the northern piedmont and NW coastal plain? During the recent wet period over and over again strong cells would drift SW to NE from SC but they would suddenly start to weaken a sthey went north, leaving us to get crumbs up here. Sometimes the remnant cell would actually actually seem to redeveloped after it moved past. Was that just bad luck?

Another day, another glancing blow. Cell ran out of steam just as it reached me. 0.04" today. 0.98" for the wet(ish) period.

On the plus side, today was much wetter in E NC than the mesos and CAMs were depicting yesterday evening. Hopefully that repeats again tomorrow.

Still can't get a flush hit... nickel and dimed my way to 0.73" today, 0.94" since Thursday. 1.94" for the month. From Winston-Salem to Rocky Mount, the N piedmont and coastal plain has been the loser so far.

Incoming Wake County.

Visiting my wife's sister near Liberty, NC. I do not envy you piedmonters your red clay. They are doing a lot of construction on their property and there is a ton of bare ground, which is currently a gelatinous quagmire.

Well to be fair, my POP was really high, and I did indeed get rain. Just not very much of it.

From Raleigh east to Greenville has been the looser so far. Only 0.21" for me so far. Hoping I can cash in Tomorrow.

Wedge cloud cover appears to be breaking up on radar in the east. Should allow atmosphere to destabilize from east to west. That is the hope anyway. Only 0.16 so far since Thursday IMBY.

Blame the gravity waves.

RAH AFD mentioning the possibility of losing QPF due to a "gravity wave". Wikipedia essentially describes a gravity wave as any wave where gravity is the restorative force, which describes a lot of waves. There is a section on atmospheric examples but it's very broad. Anyone care to share on what gravity wave means in the context of NC weather? Waves of moderate showers and storms will continue to be directed across the Carolina Wed evening into Thurs morning ahead of a back-door cold frontal passage slowly sagging south across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Precip chances may be negatively impacted by any gravity wave development during this time, which can rapidly erode precip generation in this type of pattern. By Thurs morning, the combination of frontogentical forcing and an area of low pressure rippling along the front will likely bring another round of widespread showers and isolated storms before shifting east of the area by late Thurs evening. Uncertainty in timing of the fropa is resulting in lower confidence in the development of an unstable air mass supportive of surface-based convection Thurs afternoon, which will be needed to realize any severe potential. Strong and increasing shear with height will be highly favorable for storm organization, but conditional on development of deep convection first. Storm total rainfall through Thurs evening looks to bring much needed rain to the area with the reasonable low-end from the HREF still producing a swath of 0.75 to 1" somewhere over the Carolinas. However, the experimental REFS paints a troubling alternate scenario with reasonable low-end amounts closer 0.25 to 0.5". With the potential for gravity wave development and more quickly eroding shields of precipitation, this scenario can`t be ruled out.

What is "truth"? And did you really mean to phrase that as a question.

0.43" for the day. 1.32" for the week. 1.53" since last Saturday. Together with reduced evaporation from cool temps, the bleeding is stopped...for now.

0.55 last night. 1.10 for the week.