cbmclean

Fall 2019 was similar, at least in turns of a long, drawn-out, hot fall with a sudden dramatic change in mid/late October. The heat wave culminated in the infamous "100 degree day" at RDU on October 3 (one of the first times I remember skepticism on this site with RDU being at least 2 degrees warner than any other site in the area). Within a relatively short amount of time after a 100 degree day, there were flurries somewhere in the state.

The southern tier of NC continues to do well; a nice long-lasting MCC plowed from well west of Charlotte to Brunswick County.

I'm visiting family for the holiday and wasn't watching the radar closely. Did anyone capture a file?

In the northern part, close to Lake Wilson.

A disappointing 0.20" today.

Two items 1. Thunderstorms require a source of lift to form. The western piedmont trough is such a source, which is why many times cell pop-up there first. 2. Thunderstorms are by nature self-limiting as the downdraft from the rain chokes of the convective updraft. There must be some mechanism to separate the downdraft from the updraft for a system to last. One example is shear. In a stagnant dynamic environment, which is very common in this area in late summer, it is common for cells to pop off the piedmont trough but then die quickly without any mechanism to keep them going. That's not the whole story, but it's definitely a major part. Some of it is also just bad luck.

A spectacular cell started falling apart on its way to me, as usual. Still managed 0.42" but places not far north have 1.5"+. Hopefully some more tomorrow.

Overall a dryish month across the state. Broadly speaking the southern half of the state did OK. The northern half, outside of the mountains had a very bad month, especially the NE quadrant. Very frustrating as we had made huge progress from D2/D3 all the way back to D0 or D1 but now we're right back in the hole. What makes it even more frustrating is that it's not like a massive ridge baking out the Southeast; there's been plenty of moisture around and several episodes of good lift, stalled fronts etc. For some reason cells had a hard time popping and those that did seemed to have a short lifespan.

Southern half of Wilson county is getting a decent soaking but nothing wants to pop north.

There are finally cells firing in my area but at this time none seem good candidates to hit me. It's maddening! I'm at 0.85" for the month.

Still holding strong. The norther lobe of the cell conglomeration is dying in Wake County.

Meanwhile, please drop the Raleigh rain shield. There's a nice line of storms moving in from the SW and I don't want to see it die.

A gut punch. It appears that the dynamics were not enough to overcome the stubborn cloud cover over the NE quadrant of NC. An anemic 0.19" for the day. Glad I got the 0.33" yesterday so I at least break 0.50" for the week.

Seeing pinks on radar returns north of Wadesboro out west. Meanwhile I'm at 0.09" for the day.

It's all about the dynamics. Get the right dynamics and you can pop whoppers in a wedge. Not sure if this system is going to have the umph we need, but it is certainly more dynamic than anything we have seen this month.