cbmclean

A spectacular cell started falling apart on its way to me, as usual. Still managed 0.42" but places not far north have 1.5"+. Hopefully some more tomorrow.

Overall a dryish month across the state. Broadly speaking the southern half of the state did OK. The northern half, outside of the mountains had a very bad month, especially the NE quadrant. Very frustrating as we had made huge progress from D2/D3 all the way back to D0 or D1 but now we're right back in the hole. What makes it even more frustrating is that it's not like a massive ridge baking out the Southeast; there's been plenty of moisture around and several episodes of good lift, stalled fronts etc. For some reason cells had a hard time popping and those that did seemed to have a short lifespan.

Southern half of Wilson county is getting a decent soaking but nothing wants to pop north.

There are finally cells firing in my area but at this time none seem good candidates to hit me. It's maddening! I'm at 0.85" for the month.

Still holding strong. The norther lobe of the cell conglomeration is dying in Wake County.

Meanwhile, please drop the Raleigh rain shield. There's a nice line of storms moving in from the SW and I don't want to see it die.

A gut punch. It appears that the dynamics were not enough to overcome the stubborn cloud cover over the NE quadrant of NC. An anemic 0.19" for the day. Glad I got the 0.33" yesterday so I at least break 0.50" for the week.

Seeing pinks on radar returns north of Wadesboro out west. Meanwhile I'm at 0.09" for the day.

It's all about the dynamics. Get the right dynamics and you can pop whoppers in a wedge. Not sure if this system is going to have the umph we need, but it is certainly more dynamic than anything we have seen this month.

Just judging by upstream radar, things look good, but we know how upstream cells can vanish mysteriously once hitting the Raleigh shield.

Radar blossoming in NC sandhills and southern coastal plain. Heavy returns moving through Scotland and Hoke counties right now. Hopefully a sign of things to come further north. I was well on my way to climbing out of the short-term drought altogether but then stumbled into a sneaky dry three week period. It has been extra frustrating as the atmosphere has been loaded with moisture, and not just at the low levels, but outside of the piedmont trough and the Seabreeze, most of the state seems to have been completely devoid of dynamics or lift.

Rain!! Only 0.33" but more than doubled my total for the month. Hopefully just an appetizer before a feast tomorrow.

This definitely tracks with OTG truth here. I am at 0.28" for the month. According to the RAH AFD, Raleigh east is in the crosshairs for tomorrow, we shall see. Just warning you guys ahead of time if it's a dud for me, I will whine a bit.

And of course the line of storms is collapsing on cue. Not that it would have amounted to much, with it being a thin line and fast moving, but the quadrant of the RAH CWA from Raleigh, east to me, and north, cannot get jack doodly to fire for the past week. Yeah, there is no mesoscale focus and we're too far east for the piedmont trough cells to hit us and we're too far north for the sea breeze front. But with so much heat and moisture leading to instability, you'd think cells wouldn't just shrivel up and die every time.

One of the twitter mets I follow mentioned this would be a hit-or-miss pattern with erratic rainfall, and he was right. Widespread rain was moving NNE from the SE NC coast and just dying as it moved inland just ignoring orographic lift. Not sure how there can be such high PW and multiple lift sources and so little rain in the coastal plain.