cbmclean

What did the farm get for this month?

Missed the good stuff today but 0.25" as a consolation prize, 1.16" for Fri - Sunday. Looks like we'll finish with 4.35" for June, almost all in the second half. Grass is actually pretty green here. We'll see how it survives the big heat.

I live in the north end of town, near Lake Wilson (which is now mostly a puddle). Was just getting on I-95 heading south on the way to a birthday party when I hit those storms. They were torrential.

Went back and calculated: June 2025 10.00 July 2025 3.91 Aug 2025 3.18 Sept 2025 0.66 Oct 2025 2.96 Nov 2025 1.37 Dec 2025 2.15 Jan 2026 1.06 Feb 2026 2.47 Mar 2026 1.91 Apr 2026 1.57 May 2026 1.98 June 2025 - May 2026 33.22 June 2026 4.10 (so far)

A disappointing 0.24" when areas to the south of town got 2+ inches. But still had 2.87" this week and 4.10" for the month, which is my first 4+ inch month since at least last June (my PWS records only go back a year). Rain didn't use to be this hard.

0.67" today. Let's do it again tomorrow.

This has been building for ~9 months, with a dry fall, a bone-dry winter and a record dry spring. It will be many months until we get out. Barring a Matthew-level tropical system inundating the state (which brings problems of its own) I think the reasonable best-case scenario is to slow the bleeding until well into fall when the temps cool down and hopefully the super el nino southern stream ramps up.

Picked up another 0.13" from a straggling cell. 1.68" daily total.

1.55" for the day. 3.06 for the month.

One hopes that before that happens the developing super-ultra-mega-El Nino will break through with a southern stream fire hose.

Got 0.28" from the line. Hoping for more tonight

Really nice line of storms plowing across the north half of NC ATM. Need it to trend south a bit to hit me. North Wake could be in the crosshairs.

Finally hit 1.00," for the month.

Some potential for non-trivial rain on Monday. Keeping fingers crossed.

Too soon.

Snuck in 0.24". Still waiting for a flush hit

0.22 in Wilson. It is still physically possible to rain

Nice cell popping up in SE Wake now!

Pathetic performance of the front thus evening in NC. Can't win.

Just missed by a cell passing to the north, and then a cell passed to my south and is currently blowing up to the SE. Can't win.

I often feel the same when they are blocking cold air that is chasing moisture! Seriously though, I think one way of explaining the drought would be to note that for the last 9 months it has, with rare exceptions, just been oscillating back and forth between a southeast ridge and a NW flow regime. The NW flow brought us some notable cold stretches last winter but it also kept us bone dry. Now it's just keeping us dry (and intermittently comfortable). We need two solid months of the pattern we had around Memorial day with a Bermuda high well of the coast and a trough to the west but not too close, together pumping gulf moisture up from the south west. And this time please no ridiculous CAD to keep the NC piedmont and west coastal plain stable.

Today was colder than Christmas 2015.

Was there a synoptic reason for the relative precip minimum in the northern piedmont and NW coastal plain? During the recent wet period over and over again strong cells would drift SW to NE from SC but they would suddenly start to weaken a sthey went north, leaving us to get crumbs up here. Sometimes the remnant cell would actually actually seem to redeveloped after it moved past. Was that just bad luck?

Another day, another glancing blow. Cell ran out of steam just as it reached me. 0.04" today. 0.98" for the wet(ish) period.

On the plus side, today was much wetter in E NC than the mesos and CAMs were depicting yesterday evening. Hopefully that repeats again tomorrow.