I would call it more less troughing in the west. Still I'd rather have it go that way than the other.
I tried to embed a trend GIF but it wouldn't work for me. I've seen people do it before. How do you do it?
The 10 HP winds are actually very strong this year or so I have heard, so no SSWs in the offing. As many have observed they are a crapshoot at best and absolutely undesirable with a good longwave pattern.
I'm glad that is helping the cause this year, but it doesn't bode well for chances of getting a nice clean miller A in future Ninos if that Pac Jet stays permanently jacked up. I'm hoping it collapses...just wait til the end of this winter first .
So some years ago I thought the whole notion of "the models will change when the storm gets better sampled over land" was ridiculed into oblivion along with the "18Z models are trash" myth. I was told that the vast majority of model ingestion is from satellite soundings and that RAOBs were of much reduced importance. Now I'm hearing this idea being resurrected all over the place by people who seem to know what they are talking bout. So which is it?
Ah you're one of those types. Just Kidding. I vividly remember the dreaded snowline between Raleigh and Fayetteville from my childhood as well. When I moved to Greensboro for college I remember reveling in the marginal events that were snow there and rain back home.
Not disputing your basic point, but there were widespread -30s and I believe some -40s in the 2021 outbreak in the Midwest. Of course the east coast was completely shielded from that outbreak by our beloved friend, the SER.
GFS and ICON both show Teeny-Tiny NW trends, but only in the N extent of the moisture, very little change in track. At this point it is far too little, too late. for inland folks in the Carolinas.
Only need about 400 hundred more model cycles of this NW trend and Central NC will be back in the game!! Icon and FV3 starting an unstoppable trend going from .001 qpf to .01 qpf.