cbmclean

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew. Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer. Pretty though.

In general I heartily agree. For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails. I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness. As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow? I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass. ETA: I meant to say that I got zilch rain Saturday.

Cold outbreaks usually trend less in intensity/extent at verification. Every once in a while that is a good thing for some of us. Last year during that epic Gulf snowstorm, E NC was originally forecast to get nothing as the system was suppressed to oblivion, but the last minute NW trend netted me 3 fluffy inches. The only cold outbreak that I can remember since I really started following weather that did NOT degrade to my knowledge was the Big Chill in late December 2017 early Jan 2018. That seemed to sneak up on me.

Digital grey?

Statistics show that globally, model skill continues to improve although with a diminishing slope. I suspect that a much of the perception in reduced winter performance is a result of the essentially decade long quasi La Nina base state with NS domination, which is inherently more chaotical and more difficult to predict. If you tried to used the 2016 Euro today, I bet it would be notably inferior to the modern Euro.

Wut?

Did I ever tell anyone that in my mind's eye, I picture Chuck as Napolean Dynamite?

We all knew that was coming. The only positive take away is that it also has an east coast storm. I keep hearing the EPS is overdoing the SER consistently for months, so it's not ridiculous to hope this could trend better on the Euro Op

That's like saying the Atacama is in a drought.

In true Dr. No fashion.

I wouldn't worry about it.

We're pretty bad at winter maulings. We're better at mewlings.

I believe GEPS outscore GEFS. I wonder why we pay as much attention to the GEFS as we do.

"Watching digital snowfall pile up?". Not in this forum sir.

Oh, I missed the obvious on that one. I thought it was more esoteric like SWFE or FROPA.

GEFS has notably more AK ridging, than EPS. Would love to see a more +PNA.

What is "cola"?

Are we so back yet?

Thanks CAPE. Not germane to this thread but when Googling I came across a Wikipedia article on the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge which was our friend in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Of general interest so I link to it here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

Yes, but what I did not understand is that the blockage is not a simple consequence of the existence of the the geopotential height anomalies, but rather some additional factor which causes the patter to remain stationary.

I'm philosophically opposed to parsing operational at D10+ but I am curious; I would describe this as a +PNA but also a +EPO: there's still a huge area of low heights in AK. Would that be accurate?

So what you're saying is it's not the pattern of the geopotential height anomalies that cause the block, but the fact that the anomalies are stationary? That tells me that I know even less than I thought I did.

I second this question. I have heard many comments to the effect that a ridge over Greenland does not equate to a block, it's the dipole between the ridge and the 50/50 low. There is a big dipole there. Well it is a bit south and west of 50 N 50 W, but it's not really that far.

I'm all for it, but I think to get meaningful cold in the SE that AK trough needs to exit stage left

I just heard Harbaugh started a blog devoted entirely to long range snow maps. Might be right up your alley.