cbmclean

How is it possible for there to be a -PNA with that much of a western ridge? What exactly is the definition of the PNA index?

What is the hypothesized physical mechanism of causation between sunspots (or solar cycle in general) and high latitude blocking?

I had a similar thought about cold chasing moisture, especially east of the Apps and double especially east of the taller Apps down in my neck of the woods. Every model run in history overestimates how fast the cold gets over the mountains and frequently hallucinates phantom snow as a result. Since the AIs are trained on historical data one would think that this bias should go poof on an AI model.

I have seen some debate if this was a Miller A or B or hybrid or what (which is not unusual). I'm beginning to wonder if how useful those categories really are, but I was under the impression that one of the hallmarks of a B was a Ohio Valley low that transfers, and I didn't think that there was one of those in this case. In your perception, what made this storm more "B-ish"?

Webb seems to be really hyping the strength. I suspect he would be gleeful with a strong east-based episode.

Isn't there going to be a western ridge spike, aka +PNA?

Dang Euro with its surface deceptions...

This SE weenie is rooting for you guys!!

OK, honest thermodynamics/atmospheric physics questions that has puzzled me for a long time. Right now my temp is 60.3 °. Temps are dropping very slowly. Sometimes on nights like tonight's the temps completely steady out. The ground is warm so it radiates energy at a high rate. To slow (or even stop) the temperature decrease, something must be adding energy, but what is it? The sky is clear so there is no downwelling radiation from clouds. There is no wind so there is no warm-air advection or turbulent mixing. Where is the energy coming from? Is it radiating from the water vapor in the air?

Down to 23 F this morning. Really impressed with the cold hanging on as much as it can.

I propose consideration to replace all normal water in the biosphere with heavy water (D2O). Since it freezes at ~38.9 °F we could gain a lot of marginal events. We'd have to maintain a supply of regular water for drinking since in large quantities heavy water is toxic.

Some background on AI models. https://x.com/i/status/2021333729088585882

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss? I fear that ship may have sailed.

This is getting surreal.

Next year will be extremely telling. If a decent central or even west-based El Nino develops, can you guys score with marginal homegrown cold, without crazy EPO blocking? Are we starting an exit out of the dreg -PDO minimum? Can we ever have regular bad pattern that isn't a shit the blinds?

We know the true cause is...Leporiphobia.

That Dec 2015 torch scarred me down here in NC. The daytime highs were bad but the ridiculous nighttime "lows" were nauseating. RDU didn't dip below 61 from Dec 23rd through the 28th. Where I was at visiting my parents was even worse. KFAY had back-to-back days of 80/67 on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. It was humid the whole time too, with plenty of gnats and mosquitoes.

For those like me who also enjoy cold for its own sake, this winter is producing. Not truly wall-to-wall because we did have some legit warm periods around Christmas and in early January, but the cold period starting at Thanksgiving that lasted until 12/15 or so was legit. The little cold snap around New Years was nice, and of course the current cold period has been more than legit. I also loved the little appetizer around Veteran's Day. 34.0/2.7.

Chuck knows.

Just a weeeeeee bit breezy outside.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines

Just noticed your new location. Very apropo.

I got 7 in North Wilson (with maybe a few favored spots at 8) and it was an enormous relief, but I have to admit to being emotionally drained at this point. Together with the storm last weekend it's been 2 straight weeks of relentless oscillations between clown maps and rug pulls. Obsessive model watching; clicking refresh on my browser at 12 in the morning to see if anyone has posted in the last 15 seconds on this forum. Being a snow weenie in the SE is hard on the soul.

Thanks for the info! I was assuming that the ULL was acting like the primary low of a Miller B and that the low of the coast was the secondary. I guess that is not the case? Were the ULL and coastal low just coincidental to each other?

Man I feel bad for the plains westward; total dud winter for them.